This study assesses the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using a high-resolution spatial grid (1 km) with various combinations of physical parameterization packages to simulate a severe event in August 2021 in the southeastern Brazilian coast. After determining the optimal set of physical parameterizations for representing wind patterns during this event, a year-long evaluation was conducted, covering forecast horizons of 24, 48, and 72 hours. The simulation results were compared with observational wind data from four weather stations. The findings highlight variations in the efficacy of different physical parameterization sets, with certain sets encountering challenges in accurately depicting the peak of the severe event. The most favorable results were achieved using a combination of Tiedtke (cumulus), Thompson (microphysics), TKE (boundary layer), Monin-Obukhov (surface layer), Unified-NOAH (land surface), and RRTMG (shortwave and longwave radiation). Over the one-year forecasting period, the WRF model effectively represented the overall wind pattern, including forecasts up to three days in advance (72-hour forecast horizon). Generally, the statistical metrics indicate robust model performance, even for the 72-hour forecast horizon, with correlation coefficients consistently exceeding 0.60 at all analyzed points. While the model proficiently captured wind distribution, it tended to overestimate northeast wind speed and gust intensities. Notably, forecast accuracy decreased as stations approached the ocean, exemplified by the ATPM station.

A 3-month (June-August) regime of the year 2002 summer rainfall (JJA2002) was simulated with 30 physics combinations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 12-km horizontal grid resolution. The objective is to examine summer rainfall sensitivity to parameterization of microphysical, convective, and boundary layer processes and identify the best possible combination of parameterization options that perform relatively better in simulating the spatial and temporal distribution of summer rains over Ethiopia. The WRF simulated rainfall was evaluated against station data and satellite rainfall products (CHIRPS and ENACTS) using mean absolute error, Pearson and Pattern correlation coefficients (PCC), pattern correlation, and error in a number of rainy days as evaluation metrics. Summer rainfall is found to be most sensitive to the choice of cumulus parameterization and least sensitive to cloud microphysics. All simulations captured the spatial distribution of mean seasonal precipitation with PCC ranging from 0.89-0.94. However, all simulations overestimated precipitation amount and number of rainy days. Out of the 30, the simulations that use a combination of Grell-3D cumulus scheme, ACM2 boundary layer, Lin Microphysics, Dudhai shortwave radiation, and RRTM longwave radiation scheme ranked the top and provided the most realistic simulation in terms of amount and spatio-temporal distribution of summer rainfall.

A reliable flood early warning system must take into account the mechanisms that cause heavy precipitation events and accurate surface hydrology modeling. In this project, analysis of atmospheric processes and hydrological modelling of selected flood events over Dire Dawa is conducted using various observational/reanalysis data and uncoupled WRF-Hydro model simulations. To comprehend the processes causing such severe precipitation occurrences, large scale atmospheric fields linked to selected extreme precipitation events are examined using ERA5 reanalysis. The land surface was configured at 1 km resolution while 250 m sub-grid resolution was set to perform the routing process. Model forcing for the uncoupled WRF-Hydo model is obtained from ERA5 reanalysis data. Sensitivity of stream-flow simulation to various parameter values such as hydrolic conductivity and surface infiltration coefficient was carried out for August 2006. The result of the sensitivity experiment reveals that infiltration-runoff, hydrolic soil conductivity and saturated volumetric soil moisture with the parameter value of 0.1, 1.5 and 1.0, respectively are found to produce realistic spatial and temporal distribution of stream-flow. The extreme flood events of March 2005 and April 2007 were studied further to assess the performance of WRF-Hydro model and to understand the underlying atmospheric mechanisms causing these heavy precipitation events. The result of hydrological simulation demonstrated that uncoupled WRF-Hydro simulation reproduced both the temporal evolution and the spatial pattern reasonably well. Our analysis indicated that the amount of precipitation during these two events exceeded the long-term average by several factors, furthermore, the anomalies cover larger areas of eastern Ethiopia. Associated to these extreme events, upper level subtropical westerly jet-streams were anomalously stronger and also extended further southward favouring upper level divergence over the region. At lower level, the notable circulation anomalies include anomalous positive pressure anomaly over Sudan/Egypt leading to northerly flow anomaly over Red Sea, strengthening of southerly influx from southern Indian ocean due to stronger Mascarene High. The encouraging results from WRF-Hydro simulation suggest that this modelling framework can be implemented in operational context within national and regional forecasting centers as a key component to establish a flood monitoring and early warning system.

Storm Ophelia made landfall over Ireland as an extra-tropical storm on the morning of the 16th of October 2017. The storm caused major power outages, lifted roofs, caused coastal flooding in Ireland, and resulted in the loss of three lives. A model’s capability to forecast extreme weather events such as Storm Ophelia is of utmost importance and now with a changing climate, it becomes more important to improve and enhance model forecasting capability. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model V3.9 has been configured for the Irish domain and this study presents a preliminary evaluation of the Model during Storm Ophelia. Simulated wind speed and direction were compared with hourly remote sensing (lidar) and in-situ (wind speed and wind direction at 10m) observations at the coastal site of Mace Head Atmospheric Research Station on the West coast of Ireland (53.33◦ N, 9.90 49 ◦ W). The model simulation has generally small biases in the simulated wind speed and wind direction during this case study. The model also realistically simulated the magnitude and geographical distribution of the wind speed and wind direction observed during Ophelia.

This study examines the performance of the Indian Monsoon Data Assimilation and Analy-sis (IMDAA) in predicting five extremely severe cyclonic storms (ESCS) over the Bay of Bengal. The Advanced Research version of the WRF (ARW) model is utilized for this analysis over the last two decades. The initial and lateral boundary conditions are derived from the IMDAA datasets with a horizontal resolution of 0.12° × 0.12°. Five ESCSs from the past two decades are considered: Sidr 2007, Phailin 2013, Hudhud 2014, Fani 2019, and Amphan 2020. The model is integrated up to 96 hours using double nested domains of 12 km and 4 km. Model performance is evaluated using the 4 km results, compared with available observational datasets, including the best-fit data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, and Doppler Weather Radar (DWR). The results indicate that IMDAA provides accurate forecasts for ESCSs Fani, Hudhud, and Sidr in terms of track, intensity, and mean sea level pressure, aligning well with IMD observational datasets. However, Sidr's track deviates more from the observations. The calculated mean absolute maximum sustained wind speed errors range from 8.4 m/s to 10.6 m/s from day-1 to day-4, while mean track errors range from 114 km to 496 km during the same period. Statistical analysis, including bias, mean error, and standard deviation, underscores the significance of ESCS prediction. The discussion also covers rainfall prediction, maximum reflectivity, and the associated structure of the storms.

Radar observation data with high temporal and spatial resolution are used in the data assimilation experiment to improve precipitation forecast of a numerical model. The numerical model considered in this study is Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with double-moment 6-class microphysics scheme (WDM6). We calculated radar equivalent reflectivity factor using higher resolution WRF and compared with radar observations in South Korea. To compare the precipitation forecast characteristics of three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) assimilation of radar data, four experiments are performed based on different precipitation types. Comparisons of the 24-h accumulated rainfall with Automatic Weather Station (AWS) data, Contoured Frequency by Altitude Diagram (CFAD), Time Height Cross Sections (THCS), and vertical hydrometeor profiles are used to evaluate and compare the accuracy. The model simulations are performed with and with-out 3D-VAR radar reflectivity, radial velocity and AWS assimilation for two mesoscale convective cases and two synoptic scale cases. The radar data assimilation experiment improved the location of precipitation area and rainfall intensity compared to the control run. Especially, for the two convective cases, simulating mesoscale convective system was greatly improved.

Large water bodies such as the Laurentian Great Lakes have significant influences on local and regional climate through their unique physical features. Due to the coarse spatial resolution of general circulation models (GCMs), the Great Lakes are geometrically ignored in most GCMs. Thus, the dynamical downscaling technique serves as a necessary and feasible solution to bridge the gap. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with an updated lake scheme is employed to downscale from a GCM, GFDL-CM3. The WRF-Lake’s performance is evaluated against observations, the GCM, as well as 23 other GCMs. Results show that the coupled air-lake model, with a fine spatial resolution and realistic lake bathymetries, reproduced a more reasonable spatiotemporal climatology than GCMs, as well as the lake-induced characteristics that were missed in GCMs. With lakes present, the seasonal variability of air temperature was reduced in WRF-Lake relative to GFDL-CM3, especially in summer. A reduced air temperature trend, about 4.5 °C/100 year in the 21st century, was projected in WRF-Lake. The seasonal evolutions of lake surface temperature and lake ice coverage were well captured by the lake model. The lake surface temperature was projected to be warming by 3.5-4 °C and the lake ice diminishing by 58.9% - 86%. Those results brought by the WRF-Lake model suggest that a fine resolution of the topography and the incorporation of the lake-atmosphere interactions are crucial to improve the understanding of the climate and climate change in the Great Lakes region.

As the problem of air pollution becomes more urgent, the precise determination of the characteristics of air pollution and the associated mechanisms of transport of pollutants becomes an increasingly urgent task. The simulation results of the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS) [18] were used as initial data sets. The area of the Crimean Peninsula (within coordinates 44.50 latitude, 33.50 longitude) in 23 - 26 January, 2019 was chosen for the study. That time concentrations of pollutants (aerosol particles with a diameter of 2.5 (PM2.5) and 10 micrometers (PM10)) steadily increased and reached the maximum value. Four kinds of meteorological data sets were used in the work. The first and second data sets were the global NCEP/NCAR and (ERA-5) re-analyses. The third and fourth meteorological data sets were obtained using the Weather tracking and Forecasting model (WRF) as domains on high-resolution grids: 9 km and 2 km. The analysis of meteorological data sets was carried out to analyze the nature of the air masses movement in the studied region. Using the HYSPLIT model simulation was carried out to determine area of the sources of negative impact. The emissions transfer from the supposed sources of negative impact on the Crimea region is analyzed. The sensitivity of simulation the inverse and direct trajectories of air masses transfer was studied based a set of simulation results. On the basis of HYSPLIT model the simulation was carried out separately using meteorological data sets having different spatial and temporal resolutions. In general, the simulation results allowed us to conclude that the HYSPLIT model in combination with high-resolution meteorological input data of the WRF model are good to identify the sources of possible negative effects on atmospheric air located at long distances from the study site.

Biogenic emission can have significant impact on atmospheric chemistry. Isoprene (C5H8) is known as the most predominant volatile organic compound and its emission is highly dependent on temperature and light (solar radiation). This study aims to investigate future changes of isoprene emission under climate change scenario. The Southeast Asia (SEA) region is home to 15% of the world’s tropical forest, and the biogenic emission from this region can have significant effect on the global climate chemistry. Three climate change scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) were used to drive climate change simulation in 2013 (baseline), 2030 (near-future), 2050 (mid-century), 2070 (post-mid) and 2100 (end of century) using the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF v3.9.1) model. The Model Emission of Gases and Aerosol from Nature (MEGAN v2.1) was then used to simulate isoprene fluxes using climate output datasets from the WRF model. This study highlights that the projected mean surface temperature and PAR (photosynthetic active radiation) were higher in July than in January. Towards the end of the century, the overall surface temperature and PAR over the SEA region is expected to increase by 0.9℃ - 2.1℃, and 7.6 W m-2 – 12 W m-2 under all RCPs. The all-time high isoprene emitters are Borneo and Papua Island. Meanwhile, the projected increment of isoprene emission over this region is between 10 – 14%, 15-30% and 29 – 53% for RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, respectively. Our result concludes that the total isoprene emission was higher during July, consistent with the high surface temperature and PAR. The results also agreed with the hypothesis of high isoprene emission over the region that has oil palm plantation. Thus, challenges in dealing with future emissions of isoprene in SEA are closely tied to future climate policies to limit the warming of the atmosphere over this region and the land-use conversion of palm oil plantations.

Soil moisture modeling is necessary for many hydrometeorological and agricultural applications. One of the ways in which modeling of soil moisture (SM) can be improved is by assimilating SM observations to update the model states. Remotely sensed SM observations are prone to being riddled with data discontinuities, namely in the horizontal and vertical spatial, and temporal dimensions. A set of synthetic experiments were designed in this study to assess how much impact each of these individual components of spatiotemporal gaps can have on the modeling performance of SM as well as streamflow. Results show that not having root-zone SM estimates from satellite derived observations is most impactful in terms of modeling performance. Having temporal gaps and horizontal spatial gaps in the satellite SM data also impacts modeling performance, but to a lesser degree. Real-data experiments with the remotely sensed Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) product generally brought improvements to the SM modeling performance in the upper soil layers, but not so much in the bottom soil layer. The updating of model SM states with observations also resulted in some improvements in the streamflow modeling performance during the synthetic experiments, but not during the real-data experiments.

Severe thunderstorms are often accompanied by strong vertical air currents, temporary wind gusts, and heavy rainfall. The development of this atmospheric phenomenon over tropical shallow water zones, such as bays, can lead to intensification of atmospheric disturbances and produce a small-scale storm surge. Here, the storm surge that occurred on 19 March 2017 in the Persian Gulf coastal area has been investigated. Air temperature, precipitation, mean sea level pressure, wave height, wind direction, wind speed, geopotential height, zonal components, meridional winds, vertical velocity, relative humidity, and specific humidity obtained from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF (and Global Forecast System (FNL) were used to implement the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The results showed that the main cause of the storm surge was the occurrence of a supercell thunderstorm over the Persian Gulf. The formation of this destructive phenomenon resulted from a downburst under Cumulonimbus cloud and high-velocity air subsidence, after collision with the sea surface coinciding with the high tide. This caused a severe, yet temporary, gust, which in turn caused the creation of the four waves of 3.1 m height along the coast of Bandar Dayyer.

The Himalayan region is facing frequent cloud burst and flood events during the summer monsoon e.g., Kedarnath flood of 2013. It was one of the most devastating event which claimed thousands of human lives, heavy infrastructure and economic losses. Fast moving monsoon, pre-existing westerlies, and orographic uplifting was reported as the major reason for cloud burst over Kedarnath in previous research. Our study illustrates the vertical distribution of aerosols during this event and its possible role using Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem) simulations. Model performance evaluation shows that simulations can capture the spatial and temporal pattern of observed precipitation during this event. Model simulation at 25km and 4km horizontal grid resolution without any changes in physical parameterization shows very minimal average difference in precipitation. Whereas simulation at convection permitting scale shows de-tailed information related to parcel motion compared to coarser resolution simulation. This indicates parameterization at different resolution needs to examine for better outcome. The result shows up to 20-50% changes in rain over area near Kedarnath due to the presence of aerosols. The simulation at both resolution shows significant vertical transport of natural (increases by 50%+) and anthropo-genic aerosols (increases by 200%+) during the convective event. Which leads to significant changes in cloud property, rain concentration and ice concentration in presence of aerosols. Due to aero-sol–radiation feedback, the important instability indices like convective available potential energy, convective inhibition energy, vorticity etc. shows changes near Kedarnath.

To increase rice production, fertilizer plays a crucial role in rice yield. In this research, we applied the coupled atmospheric and crop model, which is based on the WRF and CERES-Rice models, to find the appropriate nitrogen fertilizer level for increasing rice yield production in northern Thailand. The model was conducted from October to December in 2011 to 2015. To evaluate the model capability, the output from the model, including meteorological data, i.e., precipitation and temperature, and rice production, as compared to actual observation data. The modeling system shows an acceptable level of output for statistical examination; for example, the R² values were 0.93, 0.76, and 0.97 for precipitation, temperature, and rice production, respectively. To assess the optimization of the nitrogen fertilizer level, we designed 9 experiments: control cases and other cases that were multiplied by a factor of 2 – 10 times the nitrogen fertilizer levels. The model suggested that we can produce worthwhile rice yield production by approximately 4830 kg/ha if we increase the nitrogen fertilizer levels by 36 kg/ha.

Rainfall is a major climate parameter whose variation in space and time influences activities in different weather sensitive sectors such as agriculture, transport, and energy among others. Therefore, accurately forecasting rainfall is of paramount importance to the development of these sectors. In this regard, this study sought to contribute to quantitative forecasting of rainfall over Eastern Uganda through assessing the Weather Research and Forecasting model’s ability to simulate the intra–seasonal characteristics of the September to December rain season. These were: onset and cessation dates; wet days and lengths of the wet spells. The data used in the study included daily ground rainfall observations and lateral and boundary conditions data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) final analysis at 1 0 horizontal resolution and at a temporal resolution of 6 hours for the entire study period were used to initialize the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The study considered four weather synoptic weather stations namely; Jinja, Serere, Soroti and Tororo. The results show that the WRF model generally simulated fewer wet days at each station except for Tororo. Also, the WRF model simulated earlier onset and cessation dates of the rainfall season and overestimated the length of the wet spells.

Towards the investigation and further understanding of the development and propagation of Medicanes, this study explores the forecasting capability of WRF model in case of cyclone “Cleopatra” which affected with extreme rainfall and strong winds Sardinia and Calabria, Italy, in November 2013. This cyclone was unusual in that it developed a warm core but did not fulfill its transformation into a tropical-like cyclone because its core did not expand high enough in the tropospnere. The ERA5 reanalysis dataset was dynamically downscaled from 31 km spatial horizontal resolution to 9 km using WRF model. The methodology consists of; firstly, an extensive physical parameterization schemes sensitivity test and consequently, a short-range ensemble forecasting implementation based on the highest statistical scored physics configuration. All simulation results were validated against surface observations and remote sensing products. Subsequently, the modeled cyclone trajectories are compared to satellite imagery derived from EUMETSAT-SEVIRI gridded data. The findings of the conducted analysis illustrate that ensemble average displays significant difference in performance compared to any of the deterministic runs individually, suggesting that ensemble forecasts will be beneficial in studies assessing cyclonic events in the Mediterranean region.

Background: Long-range transport of dust aerosol has intense impacts on the atmospheric environment over wide areas. Methods: The annual and seasonal changes in meteorological parameters associated with the occurrence of dust storms were studied. The features of an intense dust storm and its transport characteristics were studied during June 7th to June 9th 2010 in Ahvaz city. Temporal and spatial distribution of Middle Eastern dust storm event was analyzed by models of HYSPLIT and WRF/Chem, and in- situ observations. Results: A disagreement between the occurrences of dust storms, temperature, relative humidity and rainfall, show the major source of dust storms over Ahvaz city are neighboring countries. Using HYSPLIT results, the dust particles are mainly transported from north western region of Iraq and eastern Syria to downward areas including Ahvaz city. The arrived Dust aerosols mixed with local anthropogenic emissions, led to the highest PM10 concentration of 4200 ppm. The model results were found to well reproduce temporal and spatial distribution of mineral dust concentrations according to in-situ measurements. Conclusion: The performance of WRF/Chem was acceptable for simulation of temporal and spatial distributions of dust storm events. Therefore, it can be taken as a reference in daily air quality forecasting.

Due to model errors caused by local variations in cloud precipitation processes, there are still significant uncertainties in current predictions and simulations of short-duration heavy rainfall. To tackle this problem, the effects of warming on cloud-precipitation efficiency was analyzed utilizing a weather research and forecasting (WRF) model. The analysis focused on a rainstorm corridor event that took place in July 2020. Rainstorm events from July 4 to 6 formed a narrow rain belt with precipitation exceeded 300 mm in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Temperature sensitivity tests revealed that warming intensified the potential temperature gradient between north and south, leading to stronger upward motion on the front. It also strengthened the southwest wind, which also resulting in more pronounced precipitation peaks. Warming led to a stronger accumulation and release of convective instability energy. Convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition (CIN) increased correspondingly with the temperature. The precipitation efficiency increased sequentially with 2℃ warming to 27.4%, 31.2% and 33.1%. Warming can affect the cloud precipitation efficiency by both promoting and suppressing convective activity, which may be one of the reasons for the enhancement of extreme precipitation under global warming. The diagnostic relationship between upward moisture flux and lower atmospheric stability during precipitation evolution was also revealed.

Due to urban warming, energy demand for cooling buildings is rising. The current study used CitySim to estimate the cooling energy requirements for 40 buildings in Downtown, Dubai using high-resolution climate data from weather research and forecasting (WRF) coupled with single layer urban canopy model (SLUCM). Simulating the four mitigation scenarios allowed for the examination of the reduction in cooling load caused by the addition of greenery at a rate ranging from 25% to 100%. The insulated building's cooling demand reduced by a maximum of 13.89% under 100% GI (M4). Scenario M4 resulted in a reduction of 4.6 kWh/m2 and 3.1 kWh/m2 for the non-insulated and insulated low-rise residential buildings, respectively, while the high-rise buildings saw a reduction of 3.09-4.91 kWh/m2 for the non-insulated and 2.07-3.09 kWh/m2 for insulated buildings. This study offered a potential remedy to deal with the problem of urban heating in subtropical environments.

: This study investigates the use of various thunderstorm indices in predicting severe thunderstorms events during the monsoon season in four different regions in India. The research evaluates the performance of the prediction model using a model skill score and utilizes the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the double moment microphysics scheme to simulate model cases. It also compares fifteen thunderstorm indices derived from the ERA5 dataset to identify the most effective index for predicting severe thunderstorms events. The results of this study show that in-corporating thunderstorm indices with model skill scores improves severe thunderstorms fore-casting in the monsoon season in India. The result revealed that determining the optimal threshold for each index is crucial in achieving accurate predictions. The study also highlights the importance of considering multiple indices rather than relying on a single index to predict severe thunderstorms events. The advance indices such as Energy Helicity Index (EHI), Supercell Composite Parameter (SCP), mainly works well with extreme severe thunderstorms. The simplistic indices can predict the weak or severe thunderstorm easily. The use of multiple thunderstorm indices can also help mete-orologists to make more accurate predictions, which can further enhance public safety. In conclu-sion, this study demonstrates the potential of incorporating thunderstorm indices with model skill scores like HSS and TSS and combinations of different skill scores in severe thunderstorms fore-casting during the monsoon season in India. Future research can build upon the findings of this study to develop more accurate and reliable severe weather forecasting models.

The prediction of an extremely severe cyclonic storm (ESCS) is one of the challenging issues due to increasing intensity and its life period. In this study, an ESCS Fani that developed over Bay of Bengal region during 27 April - 4May, 2019 and made landfall over Odisha coast of India is investigated to forecast the storm track, intensity and structure. Two numerical experiments (changing two air-sea flux parameterization schemes; namely FLUX-1 and FLUX-2) are conducted with the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW-WRF) model by using a moving nest with fine horizontal resolution about 3 km. The high resolution (25 km) NCEP operational Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis and forecast datasets are used to derive the initial and boundary conditions, the ARW model initialized at 00 UTC 29 April 2019 and forecasted for 108 hours. The forecasted track and intensity of Fani is validated with available India Meteorological Department (IMD) best-fit track datasets. Result shows that the track, landfall (position and time) and intensity in terms of minimum sea level pressure (MSLP) and maximum surface wind (MSW) of the storm is well predicted in the moving nested domain of the WRF model using FLUX-1 experiment. The track forecast errors on day-1 to day-4 are ~ 47 km, 123 km, 96 km, and 27 km in FLUX-1 and ~54 km, 142 km, 152 km and 166 km in Flux-2 respectively. The intensity is better predicted in FLUX-1 during the first 60 h followed by FLUX -2 for the remaining period. The structure in terms of relative humidity, water vapor, maximum reflectivity and temperature anomaly of the storm is also discussed and compared with available satellite and Doppler Weather Radar observations.

The grid nudging technique is often used in regional climate dynamical downscaling to make the simulated large-scale fields consistent with the driving fields. In this study, we focused on two specific questions about grid nudging: (1) which nudged variable had a larger impact on the downscaling results and (2) what was the “optimal” grid nudging strategy for each nudged variable to achieve better downscaling result during summer over the Chinese mainland. To solve this queries, 41 3-month long simulations for the summer of 2009 and 2010 were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) to downscale National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Final Operational Global Analysis (FNL) data to a 30-km horizontal resolution. The results showed that nudging horizontal wind or temperature had significant influence on the simulation of almost all conventional meteorological elements; nudging water vapor mainly affected the precipitation, humidity, and 500 hPa temperature. Moreover, the optimum nudging scheme varied with simulated regions and layers. As a whole, the optimal nudging time was one hour or three hours for nudging wind, three hours for nudging temperature, and one hour for nudging water vapor. The optimal nudged level was above the planetary boundary layer for almost every nudged variable.

Since late December, the underwater Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano has been erupting for weeks and has seen sporadic activities in a series of pretty big eruptions. On Friday 15th January 2022, an explosion shot a massive cloud of ash high into the atmosphere and generated a tsunami that impacted much of the Pacific Rim, which makes it one of the most energetic explosions of the entire 21st century so far. Thus, the need to determine the significant impact of these generated volcanic aerosols on the environment is a prominent task. This study depicts the modeling of the volcanic ash dispersion from the 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcanic eruption while investigating the effects of incorporating radiative feedback effects within the inline Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem). Results for 4-day averaged values have proven that the basic run (No Feedback) produced higher ash concentrations than the one with aerosol radiative feedback effects (Feedback). The simulations highlighted also the significant volcanic ash biases concentrated around the ash cloud. Additionally, our data analysis from meteorological stations and Copernicus TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument Sentinel-5 Precursor (TROPOMI-S5P) mission indicates that total sulfur dioxide () emissions traveled west. We show also that the huge plume of on January 18 reached Australia, more than 7000 km west of the eruption. With the enormous ash cloud produced, its impact on the environment and global climate change would be considered an excellent exercise for atmospheric dispersion modelers, volcanologists, and the environmental scientists' community.

Studies on the detection of layers with elevated black carbon aerosol (BC) concentrations and the formation conditions of these layers help understand the vertical distribution of BC concentrations, which will provide a basis for the assessment of climate effects and early BC pollution warnings. By using the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) numerical model, we performed a numerical simulation analysis on the authenticity of strong elevated BC concentration layers that were detected by an aircraft in the mixing layer over Harbin, China, which is a high-emission area, on a clear sunny afternoon in the early heating period of 2016. We then discuss possible problems and solutions when non-vertical paths are used to detect the vertical distribution of BC concentrations. Finally, we discuss the favorable conditions for the formation of elevated BC concentration layers by weak vertical flow. The results show that the horizontal variability of BC concentration in the mixing layer in the observation area in Harbin was sufficiently large during the measurement. This produced a false elevated layer, as detected by the aircraft during one round of spiral flight in the mixing layer. The root mean square of the horizontal distribution of BC concentration did not change with height in the mixing layer during the daytime, but it decreased with the thickness of the mixing layer and was higher in the mixing layer than in the free atmosphere. Therefore, the thinner the mixing layer, in which the vertical distribution of the BC concentration is detected in an inclined path, the stronger interference of the horizontal variability on the detected results. When a spiral flight detection path is used, the aircraft should fly at least two rounds in the mixing layer. In the daytime, due to strong turbulence in the mixing layer, weak vertical uplift is not favorable for the occurrence of elevated BC concentration layers in the mixing layer. In the nighttime, if weak vertical uplift is well matched with the BC concentration or its vertical gradient, elevated BC concentration layers can be formed in the atmosphere. Compared with upper layers far from the ground, nighttime elevated layers are easier to form in lower layers near the ground because high BC concentrations or large vertical gradients are more likely to occur in the lower layers. Both cases facilitate the occurrence of large vertical upward transport rates of BC.

This study aims to identify the optimal combination of microphysics (MP) and cumulus (CU) parameterization schemes for accurately simulating heavy to violet rainfall events associated with Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and atmospheric disturbances in Thailand using the coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Regional Oceanic Model (ROMS), hereafter referred to as WRF-ROMS. Three CU schemes, namely Betts–Miller–Janjic (BMJ), Grell 3D Ensemble (G3), and Kain–Fritsch (KF), along with three MP schemes, namely Eta (ETA), Purdue Lin (LIN), and WRF Single-moment 3-class (WSM3), are selected for the sensitivity analysis. Seven instances of heavy to violent rainfall in Thailand, occurring during summer season of 2020 and associated with tropical storms and atmospheric disturbances, are simulated using all possible combinations of the chosen physics schemes. The simulated rain intensities are compared against observations from the National Hydroinformatics Data Center. Performance was assessed using the Probability of Detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), and Critical Success Index (CSI) metrics. The models showed proficiency in predicting light to moderate rainfall, with certain combinations performing better in specific rainfall categories. However, forecasting heavy and violent rainfall proved challenging for all models and lead-time forecasts. Specific combinations, particularly those incorporating the KF scheme, demonstrated superior prediction of heavy to violent rainfall. The FAR values increased with lead-time and rain intensity, and the KF scheme combinations showed improved predictions of intense rainfall with lower FAR values. The CSI values indicated comparable performance between the control model and combination models across light to heavy rain categories, with the KF scheme showing better predictions for longer lead-times. However, accurately predicting intense rainfall remained limited. These findings highlight the need for further improvements, including refining model parameters and exploring advanced techniques to enhance accuracy and skill, particularly for longer-term forecasts. Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction should be considered to extend forecast capabilities.

In early 2020 from April to early June, the metropolitan area of Sydney as well as the rest of New South Wales (NSW, Australia) experienced a period of lockdown to prevent the spread of Covid-19 virus in the community. The effect of reducing anthropogenic activities including transportation had an impact on the urban environment in term of air quality which is shown to have improved for a number of pollutants, such as nitrogen dioxides (NO2) and carbon monoxide (CO), based on monitoring data on ground and from satellite. Besides primary pollutants CO and NOx emitted from mobile sources, PM2.5 (primary and secondary) and secondary ozone (O3) during the lockdown period will also be analysed using both air quality data and modelling method. The results show that NO2, CO and PM2.5 levels decreased during the lockdown, but O3 instead increased. The change in the concentration levels however are small considering the large reduction in traffic volume of ~30%. By estimate the decrease in traffic volume in Sydney region, the corresponding decrease in emission input to the WRF-CMAQ (Weather Research and Forecasting - Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling System) air quality model is then used to estimate the effect of lockdown on the air quality especially CO, NO2, O3 and PM2.5 in the Greater Metropolitan Region (GMR) of Sydney. COVID-19 lockdown period is an ideal case to study the effect of motor vehicle and mobile source contribution to air pollutants such as those listed above in the GMR.

Between 11 to 15 February 2019, a dust storm originating from Central Australia with persistent westerly and south westerly winds caused high particles concentration at many sites in the state of New South Wales (NSW), both inland and along the coast. The dust continued on to New Zealand and to Antarctica in the south east. This study uses observed data from air quality monitoring stations in NSW and New Zealand, MODIS 3km AOD (Aerosol Optical Depth) product from Terra/Aqua and lidar aerosol profile from CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) satellite data, and the Weather Research Forecast WRF-Chem model based on GOCART-AFWA (Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport – Air Force and Weather Agency) dust scheme and GOCART aerosol and gas-phase MOZART (Model for Ozone And Related chemical Tracers) chemistry model to study the long-range transport of aerosols for the period 11 to 15 February 2019 across eastern Australia and onto New Zealand and Antarctica. Wild fires also happened in northern NSW at the same time and their emissions are taken into account in WRF-Chem model by using Fire Inventory from NCAR (FINN) as emission input. Modelling results by the WRF-Chem model show that for the Canterbury region of South Island of New Zealand, peak concentration of PM10 (and PM2.5) as measured on 14 February 2019 at 05:00 UTC at the monitoring stations of Geraldine, Ashburton, Timaru and Woolston (Christchurch), which are more than 100km from each other and at Rangiora, Kaiapoi about 2 hours later, correspond to the prediction of high PM10 due to intrusion of dust to ground level from transported dust layer above. The Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) observation data from MODIS Terra/Aqua and CALIOP lidar measurements on board CALIPSO satellite also indicate that high altitude of dust, originated from this dust storm event in Australia, was located above Antarctica. This study suggests that at present dust storms in Australia can transport dust from sources in Central Australia to the Tasman sea, New Zealand and Antarctica. This process has been going on for at least the last 170k years as indicated by dust found in ice cores from Antarctica and sediment records in the Tasman Sea.

The 2019-2020 summer wildfire event on the east coast of Australia was a series of major wildfires occurring from November 2019 to end of January 2020 across the states of Queensland, New South Wales (NSW), Victoria and South Australia. The wildfires were unprecedent in scope and the extensive extend of the wildfires has caused smoke pollutants transported not only to New Zealand but across the Pacific Ocean to South America. At the height of the wildfires, smoke plumes were injected into the stratosphere at height up to 25km and hence transported across the globe. Based on meteorological and air quality simulation using WRF-Chem model, air quality monitoring data collected during the bushfire period and remote sensing data from MODIS and CALIPSO satellites, the extend of the wildfires and the pollutant transport, and their impacts on air quality and health on exposed population in NSW can be analysed. The results showed that WRF-Chem model using Fire Emission Inventory from NCAR (FINN) predicts the dispersion and transport of pollutants and the predicted concentration of PM2.5 and other pollutants from wildfires reasonably well when compared with ground-based and satellite data. The impact on health endpoints such as mortality, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases hospitalisation across the modelling domain is then estimated. The estimated health impact is comparable with previous study based only on observation data, but the results in this study provide much more detailed spatially and temporally with regards to the health impact from the 2019-2020 wildfire.

Dust storms originating from Central Australia and western New South Wales frequently cause high particles concentration at many sites across New South Wales, both inland and along the coast. This study focussed on a dust storm event in February 2019 which affect air quality across the state as detected at many ambient monitoring stations in the Department of Planning, Industry and Environment (DPIE) air quality monitoring network. The WRF-Chem (Weather Research and Forecast Model – Chemistry) model is used to study the formation, dispersion and transport of dust across the state of New South Wales (NSW, Australia). Wildfires also happened in northern NSW at the same time of the dust storm in February 2019, and their emissions are taken into account in WRF-Chem model by using Fire Inventory from NCAR (FINN) as emission input. The model performance is evaluated and is shown to predict fairly accurate the PM2.5 and PM10 concentration as compared to observation. The predicted PM2.5 concentration over New South Wales during 5 days from 11 to 15 February 2019 is then used to estimate the impact of the February 2019 dust storm event on three health endpoints namely mortality, respiratory and cardiac diseases hospitalisation rates. The results show that even though as the daily average of PM2.5 over some parts of the state, especially in western and north western NSW near the centre of the dust storm and wild fires, are very high (over 900 µg/m3), the population exposure is low due to the sparse population. The top five Statistical Area Level 4 regions with the most impact in term of mortality, respiratory diseases hospitalisation and cardiac disease hospitalisation are Far West and Orana, Newcastle and Lake Macquarie, New England and North West, Sydney – Inner South West and either Central Coast (mortality) or Sydney – Parramatta (respiratory diseases hospitalisation) or Sydney – Inner West (cardiac diseases hospitalisation). Generally, the health impact is similar in order of magnitude to that caused by biomass burnings events from wildfires or from hazardous reduction burnings (HRBs) near populous centres such as in Sydney in May 2016. One notable difference is the higher respiratory diseases hospitalisation for this dust event (161) compared to fire event (24).

Typhoon Durian forming over the Western North Pacific Ocean and entering into the South China Sea (SCS), caused extreme and widespread damages in 2006. In this research, sensitivity analyses on different physical parameterization schemes of the Weather Research and Forecasting Atmospheric Model (WRF-ATM) have been utilized to study typhoon Durian. Model accuracy and performance testing were investigated with different initial conditions during the tropical cyclone simulation in the SCS. The initial and boundary conditions (IBCs) for all experiments were derived from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Re-Analysis Interim (ERAI), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) with Final (FNL) analysis data compiled through the WRF-ATM model. The sensitivity analysis results indicated a major improvement for the cumulus scheme by using the Grell-Devenyi scheme along with the PBL scheme of Yonsei University, mixed-phase microphysics scheme of the WRF Single Moment 5-class and IBCs for ECMWF-ERAI of TC simulation under the context of Wind-Pressure Relationships. This predicted better track and intensity comparing with these of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The results revealed that the TC track and intensity were well simulated by the WSM5-GD combination for the WRF-ATM model with an intensity error of 1.69 hPa for minimum surface level pressure, maximum wind speed of 1.83 knots and average track error of 25 km in 72 hours. The simulations showed that the potential track and intensity error decreased with the delayed IBCs, suggesting that the model simulation is more dependable when the coast is approached by the TC.

Wildland fires are responsible for large socio-economic impacts. Fires affect the environment, damage structures, threaten lives, cause health issues, and involve large suppression costs. These impacts can be mitigated via accurate fire spread forecast to inform the incident management team. We show that a fire forecast system based on a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model coupled with a wildland fire behavior model can provide this forecast. This is illustrated with the Chimney Tops II wildland fire responsible for large socio-economic impacts. The system is run at high horizontal resolution (111 m) over the region affected by the fire to provide a fine representation of the terrain and fuel heterogeneities and explicitly resolve atmospheric turbulence. Our findings suggest that one can use the high spatial resolution winds, fire spread and smoke forecast to minimize the adverse impacts of wildland fires.

Volcanic emissions (ash, gas, aerosols) dispersed in the atmosphere during explosive eruptions generate hazards affecting aviation, human health, air quality and the environment. We document for the first time the contamination of airspace by very fine volcanic ash due to sequences of tran-sient ash plumes from Mount Etna. The atmospheric dispersal of sub-10 μm (PM10) ash is mod-elled using the WRF-Chem model coupled online with meteorology and aerosols and offline with Mass Eruption Rates (MER) derived from near-vent Doppler radar measurements and inferred plume altitudes. We analyse two sequences of paroxysms with widely varied volcanological conditions and contrasted meteorological synoptic patterns in October–December 2013 and on 3-5 December 2015. We analyse the PM10 ash dispersal simulation maps in terms of time-averaged columnar ash density, concentration at specified flight levels averaged over the entire sequence interval, and daily average concentration during selected paroxysm days at these flight levels. The very fine ash from such eruption sequences is shown to easily contaminate the airspace around the volcano within a radius of about 1000 km in a matter of a few days. Synoptic patterns with relatively weak tropospheric currents lead to the accumulation of PM10 ash at a re-gional scale all around Etna. In this context, closely interspersed paroxysms tend to accumulate very fine ash more diffusively in the lower troposphere and in stretched ash clouds higher up in the troposphere. Low-pressure, high-winds weather systems tend to stretch ash clouds into ~100 km-wide clouds forming large-scale vortices 800-1600 km in diameter. Daily average PM10 ash concentrations commonly exceed the aviation hazard threshold up to 1000 km downwind from the volcano and up to the upper troposphere for intense paroxysms. Vertical distributions show ash cloud thicknesses in the range 0.7–3 km, and PM10 sometimes stagnating at ground level, represent a potential health hazard.

During the night between 9 and 10 September 2017, multiple flash floods associated to a heavy-precipitation event affected the town of Livorno, located in Tuscany, Italy. Accumulated precipitation exceeding 200 mm in two hours, associated with a return period higher than 200 years, caused all the largest streams of the Livorno municipality to flood several areas of the town. We used the limited-area Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, in a convection-permitting setup, to reconstruct the extreme event leading to the flash floods. We evaluated possible forecasting improvements emerging from the assimilation of local ground stations and X- and S-band radar data into the WRF, using the configuration operational at the meteorological center of Tuscany region (LaMMA) at the time of the event. Simulations were verified against weather station observations, through an innovative method aimed at disentangling the positioning and intensity errors of precipitation forecasts. By providing more accurate descriptions of the low-level flow and a better assessment of the atmospheric water vapour, the results demonstrate that assimilating radar data improved the quantitative precipitation forecasts.

We describe a forecast system based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for the prediction of high-impact weather events affecting power utilities, particularly conditions conducive to wildfires. The system was developed for Pacific Gas and Electric Corporation (PG&E) to operationally forecast conditions in Northern and Central California. It was established in 2014 and has been periodically improved. In the current configuration, WRF forecasts are routinely performed multiple times each day on a 2-km grid, and the results are used as input to wildfire fuel moisture, fire probability, and wildfire spread models. Components of the system include a stochastically perturbed ensemble; an annually updated reanalysis covering more than 30 years; and validation against PG&E’s extensive mesonet and other observing networks. We describe the development and validation of the next operational edition. Configurations tested include irrigation triggered by crop growing season and an ensemble-based approach with intelligently sub-selected Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) members. The latter approach allows for enhanced uncertainty sampling in WRF forecasts and can greatly improve WRF forecasts when calibrated by observations.

From June 18 to 19, 2013, the Ésera river in the Pyrenees, Northern Spain, caused widespread damage due to flooding as a result of torrential rains and sustained snowmelt. We estimate the contribution of snow melt to total discharge applying a snow energy balance to the catchment. Precipitation is derived from sparse local measurements and the WRF-ARW model over three nested domains, down to a grid cell size of 2 km. Temperature profiles, precipitation and precipitation gradient are well simulated, although with a possible displacement regarding the observations. Snowpack melting was correctly reproduced and verified in three instrumented sites, and according to satellite images. We found that the hydrological simulations agree well with measured discharge. Snowmelt represented 33% of total runoff during the main flood event and 23% at peak flow. The snow energy balance model indicates that most of the energy for snow melt during the day of maximum precipitation came from turbulent fluxes. This approach forecast correctly peak flow and discharge during normal conditions at least 24h in advance and could give an early warning of the extreme event 2.5 days before.

The Source Region of the Yellow River (SRYR), renowned as the "Water Tower of the Yellow River", serves as an important water conservation domain in the upper reaches of the Yellow River, significantly influencing water resources within the basin. Based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro) model, the key variables of the atmosphere-land-hydrology coupling processes over the SRYR during the 2013 rainy season are analyzed. The investigation involves a comparative analysis between the coupled WRF-Hydro and the standalone WRF simulations, focusing on the hydrological response to the atmosphere. The results reveal that the WRF-Hydro model's proficiency in depicting streamflow variations over the SRYR, yielding a Nash Efficiency Coefficient (NSE) of 0.44 and of  0.61 during the calibration and validation periods, respectively. Compared to the standalone WRF simulations, the coupled WRF-Hydro model demonstrates enhanced performance in soil heat fluxes simulations, reducing the mean Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of surface soil temperature by 0.96 K and soil moisture by 0.01 m\textsuperscript{\textsuperscript{3}}/m\textsuperscript{\textsuperscript{3}}. Furthermore, the coupled model adeptly captures the streamflow variation characteristics with the NSE of 0.33. This underscores the significant potential of the coupled WRF-Hydro model for delineating coupled atmosphere-land-hydrology processes in regions characterized by cold climates and intricate topography.

Accurately predicting the power of solar power generation can greatly reduce the impact of the randomness and volatility of power generation on the stability of the power grid system, which is beneficial for the balanced operation and optimized dispatch of the power grid system, and reduces operating costs. Solar PV power generation depends on weather conditions, which are prone to large fluctuations under different weather conditions. Its power generation is characterized by randomness, volatility and intermittency. Recently, the demand for further investigation and effective use on the uncertainty of short-term solar PV power generation prediction has been getting increasing attention in many application of renewable energy sources. In order to improve the predictive accuracy of output power of solar PV power generation and develop a precise predictive model, the authors worked predictive algorithms for the output power of a solar PV power generation system. Moreover, since short-term solar PV power forecasting is one of the important aspects for optimizing the operation and control of renewable energy systems and electricity markets, this review focuses on the predictive models of solar PV power generation, which can be verified in the daily planning and operation of a smart grid system. In addition, the predictive methods in the reviewed literature are classified according to the input data source used for accurate predictive models, and the case studies and examples proposed are analyzed in detail. The contributions, advantages and disadvantages of the predictive probabilistic methods are compared. Finally, the future studies of short-term solar PV power forecasting is proposed.

Dust storms and wildfires occur frequently in southeastern Australia. Their effects on ecology, environment and population exposure have been the focus of many studies recently. Dust storms do not emit ground-sequestered carbon but wildfires emit significant quantities of carbon into the atmosphere. However, both natural events promote phytoplankton growth in water bodies because carbon, and other trace elements such as iron, deposit on the surface water of oceans. Carbon dioxide is reabsorbed by phytoplankton via photosynthesis. The carbon balance cycle due to dust storms and wildfires are not well known. Recent studies on the carbon emission of the 2019-2020 summer wildfires in eastern Australia indicated that this megafire event emitted approximately 715 million tonnes of CO2 (195 Tg C) into the atmosphere from burned forest areas. The projected increase in the frequency of wildfires due to climate change alters what was a carbon neutral process of reabsorbing emitted carbon by the forests, and subsequently cannot be achieved. With the result of net loss of sequestered carbon to the atmosphere, subsequently further promotes a warming climate. This study focusses on the association of dust storms and wildfires in southeastern Australia with phytoplankton growth in the Tasman Sea due to the February 2019 dust storm event and the 2019-2020 Black Summer wildfires. Central Australia and western New South Wales were the sources of the dust storm emission (11 to 16 February 2019) and the Black Summer wildfires occured along the coast of New South Wales and Victoria (from early November 2019 to early Januaray 2020). The results show the similarities and differences in the deposition of particulate matter, phytoplankton growth and carbon reabsorption patterns in the Tasman Sea from these events. Using WRF-Chem model, during the 5 days dust storm event in February 2019, approximately ~1230 tons of total dust were predicted to be deposited in the Tasman Sea while ~132,000 tons of PM10 were deposited in the early stage of the wildfires from 1 to 8 November 2019.

Wetlands, which is composed of soil, vegetation and water, has sufficient water supply and is sensitive to climate change. This study analyzed the coupling degree between wetlands and atmosphere, and discussed the influence of environmental factors (solar radiation and water vapor pressure deficit) on latent heat flux by using the experimental data from the Maduo Observatory of Climate and Environment of the Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resource, CAS and WRF model. The results showed, during the vegetation growthing season, the average value of Ω (decoupling factor) is 0.38 in alpine wetlands, indicating the coupling between wetlands and atmosphere is poor; Solar radiation is the main factor influencing the latent heat flux in the results of both observation data analysis and model simulation, and solar radiation and water vapor pressure deficit still have an opposite reaction to latent heat flux; when solar radiation and water vapor pressure deficit increase by 30%, the average daily amount of latent heat flux increases from 5.57 MJ·m-2 to 7.50 MJ·m-2 and decreases to 5.17 MJ·m-2, respectively. This study provides a new research approach for the study of the parameterization of latent heat flux and evapotranspiration under the context of global climate change.

The prediction of wind power output is part of the basic work of power grid dispatching and energy distribution. At present, the output power prediction is mainly obtained by fitting and regressing the historical data. The medium- and long-term power prediction results exhibit large deviations due to the uncertainty of wind power generation. In order to meet the demand for accessing large-scale wind power into the electricity grid and to further improve the accuracy of short-term wind power prediction, it is necessary to develop models for accurate and precise short-term wind power prediction based on advanced algorithms for studying the output power of a wind power generation system. This paper summarizes the contribution of the current advanced wind power forecasting technology and delineates the key advantages and disadvantages of various wind power forecasting models. These models have different forecasting capabilities, update the weights of each model in real time, improve the comprehensive forecasting capability of the model, and have good application prospects in wind power generation forecasting. Furthermore, the case studies and examples in the literature for accurately predicting ultra-short-term and short-term wind power generation with uncertainty and randomness are reviewed and analyzed. Finally, we present prospects for future studies that can serve as useful directions for other researchers planning to conduct similar experiments and investigations.

The World Health Organization estimates that every year air pollution kills seven million people worldwide. As it is expected that climate change will affect future air quality patterns, the full understanding of the links between air pollution and climate change, and how they affect human health, are challenges of future research. In this scope, a methodology to assess the air quality impacts on health was developed. The WRF-CAMx modelling framework was applied for the medium-term future climate (considering the SSP24.5 scenario) and for the recent past (considered as baseline). Following the WHO recommendations, mortality health indicators were used to estimate health impacts of long-term exposures. For that, the Aveiro Region, in Portugal, was considered as a case study. Future climate results indicate the occurrence of higher temperatures, and lower total precipitation. Despite that, improvements in the main pollutants’ concentrations, and consequently in the reduction of the related premature deaths are foreseen, mainly due to the reduction of pollutants emissions imposed by the European legislation for the upcoming years. The applied approach constitutes an added value in this research field, being crucial to anticipate the effects of climate change on air quality and evaluate their impacts on human health.

In this study, we focus on the effects of fuel bed representation and fire heat and smoke distribution in a coupled fire-atmosphere simulation platform for two landscape-scale fires: the 2018 Camp Fire and the 2021 Caldor Fire. The fuel bed representation in the coupled fire-atmosphere simulation platform WRF-Fire currently includes only surface fuels. Thus, we enhance the model by adding canopy fuel characteristics and heat release, for which a method to calculate the heat generated from canopy fuel consumption is developed and implemented in WRF-Fire. Furthermore, the current WRF-Fire heat and smoke distribution in the atmosphere is replaced with a heat-conserving Truncated Gaussian (TG) function and its effects are evaluated. The simulated fire perimeters of case studies are validated against semi-continuous, high-resolution fire perimeters derived from NEXRAD radar observations. Furthermore, simulated plumes of the two fire cases are compared to NEXRAD radar reflectivity observations followed by buoyancy analysis using simulated temperature and vertical velocity fields. The results show that while the improved fuel bed and the TG heat release scheme have small effects on the simulated fire perimeters of the wind-driven Camp Fire, they affect the propagation direction of the plume-driven Caldor Fire, leading to better-matching fire perimeters with the observations. However, the improved fuel bed representation together with the TG heat smoke release scheme leads to more realistic plume structure in comparison to the observations in both fires. The buoyancy analysis also depicts more realistic fire-induced temperature anomalies and atmospheric circulation when the fuel bed is improved.

Solar radiation prediction is an important process in ensuring optimal exploitation of solar energy power. Numerous models have been applied to this problem, such as numerical weather prediction models and artificial intelligence models. However, well-designed hybridization approaches that combine numerical models with artificial intelligence models to yield a more powerful model can provide a significant improvement in prediction accuracy. In this paper, we propose novel hybrid machine learning approaches that exploit auxiliary numerical data. The proposed hybrid methods invoke different machine learning paradigms, including feature selection, classification, and regression. Additionally, numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are used in the proposed hybrid models. Feature selection is used for feature space dimension reduction to reduce the large number of recorded parameters that affect estimation and prediction processes. The rough set theory is applied for attribute reduction and the dependency degree is used as a fitness function. We investigate the effect of the attribute reduction process with thirty different classification and prediction models in addition to the proposed hybrid model. Then, different machine learning models are constructed based on classification and regression techniques to predict solar radiation. Moreover, other hybrid prediction models are formulated to use the output of the numerical model of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) as learning elements in order to improve the prediction accuracy. The proposed methodologies are evaluated using a data set that is collected from different regions in Saudi Arabia.

The planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) is one of the key factors in influencing the dispersion of the air pollutants in the troposphere and hence the air pollutant concentration on ground level. For this reason, accurate air pollutant concentration depends on the performance of PBLH prediction. Recently, ceilometer, a lidar instrument to measure cloud base height, has been used by atmospheric scientists and air pollution control authorities to determine the mixing level height (MLH) in improving forecasting and understanding the evolution of aerosol layers above ground at a site. In this study, ceilometer data at an urban (Lidcombe) and a rural (Merriwa) location in the New South Wales, Australia was used to validate the PBLH prediction from two air quality models (CCAM-CTM and WRF-CMAQ) as well as to understand the aerosol transport from sources to receptor point at Merriwa for the three case studies where high PM10 concentration was detected in each of the three days. The results show that the PBLH prediction by the two air quality models corresponds reasonably well with observed ceilometer data and the cause and source of high PM10 concentration at Merriwa can be found by using ceilometer MLH data to corroborate with back trajectory analysis of transport of aerosols to the receptor point at Merriwa. Of the three case studies, one had aerosol source from north and north west of Merriwa in remote NSW where windblown dust is the main source, and the other two had sources from south and south east of Merriwa where anthropogenic sources dominate,