A paradigm shift away from null hypothesis significance testing seems in progress. Based on simulations, we illustrate some of the underlying motivations. First, P-values vary strongly from study to study, hence dichotomous inference using significance thresholds is usually unjustified. Second, statistically significant results have overestimated effect sizes, a bias declining with increasing statistical power. Third, statistically non-significant results have underestimated effect sizes, and this bias gets stronger with higher statistical power. Fourth, the tested statistical hypotheses usually lack biological justification and are often uninformative. Despite these problems, a screen of 48 papers from the 2020 volume of the Journal of Evolutionary Biology exemplifies that significance testing is still used almost universally in evolutionary biology. All screened studies tested default null hypotheses of zero effect with the default significance threshold of p = 0.05, none presented a pre-specified alternative hypothesis, pre-study power calculation, and the probability of ‘false negatives’(beta error). The results sections of the papers presented 49 significance tests on average (median 23, range 0–390). Of 41 studies that contained verbal descriptions of a ‘statistically non-significant’ result, 26 (63%) falsely claimed the absence of an effect. We conclude that studies in ecology and evolutionary biology are mostly exploratory and descriptive. We should thus shift from claiming to ‘test’ specific hypotheses statistically to describing and discussing many hypotheses (possible true effect sizes) that are most compatible with our data, given our statistical model. We already have the means for doing so, because we routinely present compatibility (‘confidence’) intervals covering these hypotheses.

Browsing of wild ungulates can have profound effects on the structure and composition of forests. In the Swiss National Park, the density of wild ungulates including red deer (Cervus elaphus), ibex (Capra ibex), and chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra) is exceptionally high due to strict protection and the absence of large predators. We examined count data of larch (Larix decidua), cembra pine (Pinus cembra), spruce (Picea abies), upright mountain pine (Pinus mugo subsp. uncinata), and mountain ash (Sorbus aucuparia) of four sampling years between 1991 and 2021 and modelled how different topographic and location factors affected the probability of browsing on saplings of larch, cembra pine, and spruce. Despite the high density of wild ungulates, the numbers of saplings and young trees increased over the past 30 years. The probability of browsing on saplings was highest for larch at a height of 10 – 40 cm and increased with increasing elevation. In our study area, open grasslands are mainly located above the tree line, which might explain the positive correlation between elevation and the probability of browsing. Other factors like exposition and slope, available food resources and disturbance by humans did not have clear effects on the probability of browsing.