In this paper, a systematic literature review is presented, through a survey in the main digital databases, about modelling methods for Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) for hourly electricity demand for residential electricity and to realize the performance evolution and impact of the Artificial Intelligent (AI) in STLF. With these specific objectives, it was developed a conceptual framework on the subject, a systematic review of the literature based on scientific publications with high impact and a bibliometric study directed to the scientific production of AI and STLF. The review of research articles over a 10-year period, which takes place between 2012-2022, uses the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) method. This research resulted in more than 300 articles, available in 4 (four) databases: Web of Science, IEEE Xplore, Scopus and Science Direct. The research was organized around 3 (three) central themes, which were defined through keywords: STLF, Electricity, Residential and their corresponding synonyms. 334 research articles were analyzed and identified the year of publication, journal, author, geography by continent and country and the area of application. Of the 334 documents found in the initial research and after applying the inclusion/exclusion criteria, which allowed delimiting the subject addressed in the topics of interest for analysis, 37 (thirty-seven) documents are in English (25 are journal articles and 12 are conference papers). The results point to a diversity of modelling techniques and associated algorithms. The corresponding performance is measured with different metrics and, therefore, cannot be compared directly. Hence, it should be desirable to have a unified data set together with a set of benchmarks with well-defined metrics for a clear comparison of all the modelling techniques and the corresponding algorithms.

To minimise environmental impact, avoid regulatory penalties, and improve competitiveness, energy-intensive manufacturing firms require accurate forecasts of their energy consumption so that precautionary and mitigation measures can be taken. Deep learning is widely touted as a superior analytical technique to traditional artificial neural networks, machine learning, and other classical time series models due to its high dimensionality and problem solving capabilities. Despite this, research on its application in demand-side energy forecasting is limited. We compare two benchmarks (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and an existing manual technique used at the case site) against three deep learning models (simple Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU)) and three machine learning models (Support Vector Regression (SVM), Random Forest, and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN)) for short term load forecasting (STLF) using data from a Brazilian thermoplastic resin manufacturing plant. We use the grid search method to identify the best configurations for each model, and then use Diebold-Mariano testing to confirm the results. Results suggests that the legacy approach used at the case site is the worst performing, and that the GRU model outperformed all other models tested.

Commercial buildings are a significant consumer of energy worldwide. Logistics facilities, and specifically warehouses, are a common building type yet under-researched in the demand-side energy forecasting literature. Warehouses have an idiosyncratic profile when compared to other commercial and industrial buildings with a significant reliance on a small number of energy systems. As such, warehouse owners and operators are increasingly entering in to energy performance contracts with energy service companies (ESCOs) to minimise environmental impact, reduce costs, and improve competitiveness. ESCOs and warehouse owners and operators require accurate forecasts of their energy consumption so that precautionary and mitigation measures can be taken. This paper explores the performance of three machine learning models (Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest, and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)), three deep learning models (Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU)), and a classical time series model, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) for predicting daily energy consumption. The dataset comprises 8,040 records generated over an 11-month period from January to November 2020 from a non-refrigerated logistics facility located in Ireland. The grid search method was used to identify the best configurations for each model. The proposed XGBoost models outperform other models for both very short load forecasting (VSTLF) and short term load forecasting (STLF); the ARIMA model performed the worst.