Seasonal oscillations in the partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) in the Earth’s atmosphere stronger in northern latitudes are assumed to show that terrestrial photosynthesis exceeds respiration in summer reducing the pCO2, but increasing in winter when respiration exceeds photosynthesis. We disagree, proposing that variations in the temperature of the surface mixing zone of seawater also regulate the atmospheric pCO2, thermodynamically. We show that carbonate (CO32-) concentrations will therefore increase in summer with CaCO3 (calcite or aragonite) becoming less soluble, so calcium and carbonate ions are predicted to aggregate more while CO2 concentration falls in warmer seawater, thermodynamically favoring lower atmospheric pCO2. In winter, these physical processes are reversed, redissolving suspended calcite thus increasing carbonate alkalinity; carbonate concentration lessens as bicarbonate and soluble CO2 increase, raising the pCO2 in air. Our numerical computation shows that thermal fluctuations in equilibria favor absorption from air of more than one mole of CO2 per square meter in summer, coinciding with calcite formation maximizing in warmer water, potentially augmenting limestone reefs if there is a trend for increasing temperature . Another assumption we challenge is that upwelling from deeper water is the sole cause of increases in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and alkalinity in surface waters, particularly in the southern hemisphere. Instead, calcite dissolution is favored as water temperature falls near the surface. It is well established that the seasonal summer decline in atmospheric CO2 coincides in fertile seawater with higher rates of biotic calcification and acidity, allowing increased CO2 capture by photosynthesis. However, its reversal in winter is proposed to be also a result of the cyclic dissolution of calcite as temperature falls, facilitated by biogenic respiration now exceeding photosynthesis; this can mutually provide the CO2 needed to convert carbonate ion alkalinity from calcite dissolution with bicarbonate increasing. Physical reasons why this oscillation is more obvious in the northern hemisphere include greater seasonal variations in water temperature (ca. 7.1 oC) being almost twice that in the cooler southern hemisphere (ca. 4.7 oC) and the greater depth of the surface mixing zone of seawater in the southern oceans. Evidence from 13CO2 fluxes between surface seawater and air is also assessed to test this hypothesis but questions remain regarding the regional rates of inorganic precipitation and dissolution of CaCO3 in the mixing zone. In summary, rapid biogenic calcification is favored by summer photosynthesis, but slower abiogenic calcification is more likely in warmer water.

A testable hypothesis with quantitative predictions is put forward, proposing that strong acids produced on land at a rate correlated with global population are an increas-ing cause of increasing atmospheric CO2 pressure (pCO2). This hypothesis widens the imbalance assumed between the global uptake of CO2 by photosynthesis and emissions of CO2 from all sources, including the combustion of fossil fuels, causing greater atmos-pheric pCO2. Our modelling tests for reactions of dissolved inorganic carbon show that increasing atmospheric CO2 is caused thermodynamically by falling land surface pH values, but only with bicarbonate present. Strong acids generated by oxygen from re-duced inorganic compounds of nitrogen and sulphur emit CO2 almost stoichiometrically from dissolved bicarbonate in the pH range of most global soils, between 6 to above 8. We show that each decrease of aqueous pH value of 0.01 units from acidification of sur-face water near pH 8 potentially increases the pCO2 in the atmosphere by about 7 ppmv. The surface pH value of the ocean near 8.10 in 2000 has been shown to decrease at this rate, a result of equilibrating with the rising atmospheric pCO2. Therefore, our qualita-tive estimates of increasing atmospheric CO2 driven by irreversible acidification on land are critical and need broad scale validation. Unfortunately, these acidifying processes on land from excessive nitrogen fertiliser, export of alkaline produce from farmlands and other processes were not considered by previous biogeochemical reviews. However, several very recent research studies showing CO2 emissions from soil during nitrifica-tion are consistent with our hypothesis. Despite counter measures to curb excessive CO2 emissions, including carbon capture and geological storage, the increasing Keeling curve for pCO2 may continue to rise because zero carbon policies do not address these causes. We recommend that this hypothesis be further tested by in situ experiments in neutral soils and water, designed to compare CO2 emissions under the acidifying conditions de-scribed in this article. Corrective counter measures can then be designed and applied.