Abstract: Currently, thermal power is the largest source of power in the world. Although the impacts of climate change on cooling water sufficiency in thermal power plants have been extensively assessed globally and regionally, their economic consequences have seldom been evaluated. In this study, the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model Computable General Equilibrium model (AIM/CGE) was used to evaluate the economic consequences of projected future cooling water insufficiency on a global basis, which was simulated using the H08 global hydrological model. This approach enabled us to investigate how the physical impacts of climate change on thermal power generation influence economic activities in regions and industrial sectors. To account for the uncertainty of climate change projections, five global climate models and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6 and 8.5) were used. The ensemble-mean results showed that the global gross domestic product (GDP) loss in 2070–2095 due to cooling water insufficiency in the thermal power sector was −0.21% (−0.12%) in RCP8.5 (RCP2.6). Among the five regions, the largest GDP loss of −0.57% (−0.27%) was observed in the Middle East and Africa. Medium-scale losses of −0.18% (−0.12%) and −0.14% (−0.12%) were found in OECD90 (the member countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development as of 1990) and Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, respectively. The smallest losses of −0.05% (−0.06%) and −0.09% (−0.08%) were found in Latin America and Asia, respectively. The economic impact of cooling water insufficiency was non-negligible and should be considered as one of the threats induced by climate change.

Addressing the contemporary challenges of mitigating and adapting to climate change, conserving biodiversity, and ensuring human well-being constitutes a central focus for humanity. These challenges, though often treated in isolation, are intricately interconnected, sharing common drivers. Current and future research emphasizes the pursuit of an integrated approach that minimizes trade-offs and fosters synergies among the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The nexus between ecosystem service value (ESV) and the social cost of carbon (SCC) is pivotal in informing national and governmental decisions regarding human well-being and climate change mitigation and adaptation, respectively. This study employs the Zhoushan Archipelago as a case study, exploring ESV and SCC dynamics from 2010 to 2020. An in-depth analysis of spatial development characteristics and the temporal and spatial correlation between ESV and SCC is conducted. The findings reveal an increase in Zhoushan Archipelago's land area from 2010 to 2015, stabilizing thereafter, with construction land exhibiting the most notable proportional growth. Carbon emissions were observed during the study period, with forests identified as the primary carbon sink, followed by mudflat and waterbody, while construction land contributed significantly to carbon emissions. Notably, the SCC in Zhoushan Archipelago increased by 2452%, contrasting with a modest 1.5% decrease in ESV during the study period. Global spatial correlation analysis demonstrated a significant positive correlation between ESV and SCC in Zhoushan Archipelago throughout the study period, validated by passing the P-value test. However, local spatial correlation analysis revealed a specific nature of the global spatial correlation between ESV and SCC in the island area. This nuanced understanding enhances our comprehension of the intricacies surrounding ESV and SCC dynamics, contributing valuable insights to the broader discourse on sustainable regional development, economic decarbonization, and human well-being improvement.