ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201611.0029.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Geophysics And Geology Keywords: precipitation deficit; precipitation surplus; standardized precipitation index SPI; forecast; verification
Online: 4 November 2016 (13:39:29 CET)
In the paper the verification of forecasts of precipitation conditions measured by the standardized precipitation index SPI is presented. For the verification of categorical forecasts a contingency table was used. Standard verification measures were used for the SPI value forecast. The 30 day SPI moved every 10 days by 10 days was calculated in 2013-2015 from April to September on the basis of precipitation data from 35 meteorological stations in Poland. Predictions of the 30 day SPI were created in which precipitation was forecasted in the next 10 days (the SPI 10-day forecast) and 20 days (the SPI 20-day forecast). Both for the 10 and 20 days, the forecasts were skewed towards drier categories at the expense of wet categories. There was a good agreement between observed and 10-day forecast categories of precipitation. Less agreement is obtained for 20-day forecasts – these forecasts evidently “over-dry” the assessment of precipitation anomalies. The 10-day SPI value forecast accuracy is acceptable, whereas for the 20-day forecast is unsatisfactory. Both for the SPI categorical and the SPI value forecast, the 10-day SPI forecast is reliable and the 20-day forecast should be accepted with reservation and used with caution.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201901.0048.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: precipitation; microphysics; convective precipitation; meteosat second generation
Online: 4 January 2019 (14:41:38 CET)
The Convective Rainfall Rate from Cloud Physical Properties (CRPh) for Meteosat Second Generation Satellites is a day-only precipitation algorithm developed at the Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET) for EUMETSAT’ Satellite Application Facility in support to Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting (NWC SAF). It is therefore mainly intended to provide input for monitoring and near-real-time forecasts for the next few hours. This paper critically discusses the theoretical basis of the algorithm with special emphasis in the empirical values and assumptions in the microphysics of precipitation and compares the performances of the CRPh with its antecessor, the Convective Rainfall Rate algorithm (CRR), using an object-based method. The analyses show that AEMET’s CRPh is physically consistent and that outperforms the CRR. The applicability of the algorithm for nowcasting and the challenges to evolve the product to an all-day algorithm are also presented.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202303.0436.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Pollution Keywords: Heavy metals; microbially induced carbonate precipitation (MICP); co-precipitation; calcite; vaterite
Online: 27 March 2023 (03:26:14 CEST)
Heavy metal contamination is listed among the most alarming threats to the environment and human health. The detrimental effects of heavy metals in the natural environment span from a reduction of biodiversity to toxic effects on marine life - through microplastic born heavy metals -, to impairment of microbial activity in the soil, and to detrimental effects on animal reproduction. A host of different chemical and biological technologies have been proposed to alleviate environmental contamination by heavy metals. Relatively less attention has been paid to the microbial precipitation of heavy metals, as a side mechanism of the most general process of microbially induced calcite precipitation (MICP). This process is currently receiving a great deal of interest from both a theoretical and practical standpoint, because of its possible practical applications in concrete healing and soil consolidation, and its importance in the more general framework of microbial induced mineral precipitation. In this study, we analyse the ability of the marine bacteria Vibrio harveyi in co-precipitating CaCO3 minerals, together with Cd, Cr, Pb, and Zn added in form of nitrates, from solutions containing CaCl2. The precipitated carbonatic minerals were a function of the different heavy metals present in the solution. The process of co-precipitation appears to be rather effective and fast, as the concentrations of the 4 heavy metals were reduced in 2 days by 97.2%, on average, in the solutions.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints201910.0197.v2
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: radar; dual-polarization; precipitation
Online: 24 October 2019 (11:07:26 CEST)
The modern era of polarimetric radar begins with radiowave propagation research starting in the early 1970s with applications to measurement and modeling of wave attenuation in rain and depolarization due to ice particles along satellite-earth links. While there is a rich history of radar in meteorology after World War II, the impetus provided by radiowave propagation requirements lead to high quality antennas and feeds. Our journey starts by describing the key institutions and personnel responsible for development of weather radar polarimetry. The early period was dominated by circularly polarized radars for propagation research and at S-band for hail detection. By the mid-to late 70s, a paradigm shift occurred which led to the dominance of linear polarizations with applications to slant path attenuation prediction as well as estimation of rain rates and inferences of precipitation physics. The period from early 1980s to 1995 can be considered as the “golden” period of rapid research that brought in meteorologists, cloud physicists and hydrologists. This article describes the evolution of this technology from the vantage point of the authors. Their personal reflections and “behind the scenes” descriptions offer a glimpse into the inner workings at several key institutions which cannot be found elsewhere.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.2245.v2
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: solid precipitation and type measurements; solid precipitation catch efficiency; snow gauges; non-traditional solid precipitation censors; visibility in snow; aviation
Online: 8 August 2023 (08:43:11 CEST)
Accurate measurement of solid precipitation (S) has a critical importance for proper understanding of the Earth’s hydrological cycle, validation of emerging technologies and weather prediction models, and developing parameterizations of severe weather elements such as visibility (Vis). However, measuring S is still a challenging problem mainly because of wind effects. The wind effects are normally mitigated by using a Double-Fence Automated Reference (DFAR) system to reduce the wind speed (Ug). To contribute towards addressing some of these issues we have analyzed data sets collected at a site located in Southern Ontario, Canada using several instruments. The instruments include two Geonor gauges, one placed inside a DFAR (SDFAR) and the other inside a double Alter shield (DASG), a Pluvio2 gauge inside a single Alter shield (SASP), a HotPlate, a PARSIVEL2 Disdrometer that measures S and fall velocity (V), and a FD12P senor that measures S and type and Vis. The results show that for the Ug observed in this study (Ug < 6 ms-1), both DASG and SASP have similar collection efficiency (CE) of near 70%. The transfer functions (TF) for DASG and SASP as a function of Ug and also Ug, and V have been derived. The TF for the DASG that includes both Ug and V showed better agreement with observation than just Ug alone. The S measured using all the other instruments were correlated well with SDFAR, but the PARSIVEL2 and FD12P overestimated and underestimated the snow amount respectively as compared the SDFAR. However, the HotPlate captured similar amount of S as the SDFAR. According to this study, the SDFAR showed good correlation with Vis.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202205.0090.v1
Subject: Physical Sciences, Applied Physics Keywords: machine learning/artificial intelligence; precipitation type classification; passive microwave; precipitation radar; retrieval algorithm
Online: 7 May 2022 (03:46:06 CEST)
Precipitation type is a key parameter used for better retrieval of precipitation characteristics as well as to understand the cloud-convection-precipitation coupling processes. Ice crystals and water droplets inherently exhibit different characteristics in different precipitation regimes (e.g., convection, stratiform), which reflect on satellite remote sensing measurements that help us distinguish them. The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Core Observatory’s Microwave Imager (GMI) and Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) together provide ample information on global precipitation characteristics. As an active sensor, DPR provides an accurate precipitation type assignment, while passive sensors like GMI are traditionally only used for empirical understanding of precipitation regimes. Using collocated precipitation type flags from DPR as the “truth”, this paper employs machine learning (ML) models to train and test the predictability and accuracy of using passive GMI-only observations together with ancillary information from reanalysis and GMI surface emissivity retrieval products. Out of six ML models, four simple ones (Support Vector Machine, Neural Network, Random Forest, and Gradient Boosting) and the 1-D convolutional neural network (CNN) model are identified to produce 90% - 94% prediction accuracy globally for 5 types of precipitation (convective, stratiform, mixture, no precipitation, and other precipitation), which is much more robust than previous similar effort. One novelty of this work is to introduce data augmentation (subsampling and bootstrapping) to handle extremely unbalanced samples in each category. Careful evaluation of Impact matrices demonstrate that polarization difference (PD) and surface emissivity at high-frequency channels dominate the decision process, which are consistent with the physical understanding of polarized microwave radiative transfer over different surface types, as well as in snow and liquid clouds with different microphysical properties. Furthermore, the view-angle dependency artifact that DPR precipitation flag bears with does not propagate into the conical-viewing GMI retrievals. This work provides a new and promising way for future physics-based ML retrieval algorithm development.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201908.0197.v2
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: precipitation; seasonal; airmass; spatial patterns
Online: 9 October 2019 (04:38:32 CEST)
This paper characterizes the influence of synoptic-scale air mass conditions on spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation in North Carolina over a 16-year period (2003-2018). National Center for Environmental Prediction Stage IV multi-sensor precipitation estimates were used to describe seasonal variations in precipitation in the context of prevailing air mass conditions classified using the spatial synoptic classification system. Spatial analyses identified significant clustering of high daily precipitation amounts distributed along the east side of the Appalachian Mountains and along the coastal plains. Significant and heterogeneous clustering was prevalent in summer months and tended to coincide with land cover boundaries and complex terrain. The summer months were dominated by maritime tropical air mass conditions whereas dry moderate air mass conditions prevailed in the winter, spring, and fall. Between the three geographic regions of North Carolina, highest precipitation amounts were received in western North Carolina during the winter and spring, and in eastern North Carolina in the summer and fall. Central North Carolina received the least amount of precipitation; however, there was substantial variability between regions due to prevailing air mass conditions. There was an observed shift toward warmer and more humid air mass conditions in the winter, spring, and fall months throughout the study period (2003-2018), indicating a shift toward air mass conditions conducive to higher daily average rain rates in North Carolina.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202304.1060.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: X-band dual-polarization phased array radar; Precipitation attenuation; Precipitation types; Raindrop size distributions
Online: 27 April 2023 (08:14:57 CEST)
X-band dual-polarization phased array radar (XPAR-D) possesses high temporal-spatial resolutions and plays a significant role in detecting meso- and micro-scale convective systems. However, the precipitation attenuation it endures necessitates an effective correction method. This study selected radar data from XPAR-D at the peak of Maofeng Mountain in Guangzhou during May 16-17, 2020 from three precipitation stages after quality control. Attenuation coefficients are calculated for different precipitation types through scattering simulations of raindrop size distribution (RSD) data. Drawing upon this, an attenuation correction algorithm (MZH-KDP method) is proposed for radar reflectivity factor (ZH) according to different raindrop types, and is compared to the ZH-KDP method currently in use. The results indicate that the attenuation amount of XPAR-D echoes depends on the attenuation path and echo intensity. When the attenuation path is shorter and the echo intensity is weaker, the amount of attenuation and correction is smaller. Difficulties arise when there are noticeable deviations in such a situation, which are challenging to solve via attenuation correction methods. Longer attenuation paths and stronger echoes highlight the advantages of the MZH-KDP method, while the ZH-KDP method tends to overcorrect the bias. The MZH-KDP method outperforms the ZH-KDP method for different precipitation types. The superior correction capability of the MZH-KDP method provides a significant advantage in improving the performance of XPAR-D for the detection of extreme weather.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0295.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: cut-off lows; circulation patterns; heavy precipitation; floods; forecast skill; unified model; GPM precipitation
Online: 13 August 2020 (08:10:27 CEST)
Mid-tropospheric cut-off low (COL) pressure systems are linked to severe weather, heavy rainfall and extreme cold conditions over South Africa. They often result in floods and snowfalls in winter disrupting economic activities. This paper examines the evolution and circulation patterns associated with severe COLs over South Africa. We evaluate the performance of the 4.4 km Unified Model (UM) which is currently used operationally by the South African Weather Service to simulate daily rainfall. Circulation variables and precipitation simulated by the UM were compared against ECMWF’s ERA Interim reanalyses and GPM precipitation at 24-hour timesteps. We present five recent (2016-2019) severe COLs that had high impact and found higher model skill when simulating heavy precipitation during the initial stages than the dissipating stages of the systems. A key finding was that the UM underestimated precipitation mainly due to inaccurate placing of COL centers and areas of heavy rainfall by up to 5° of latitude away from the actual location, due to the poor formulating of cumulus and microphysics schemes in the model. Understanding the performance and limitations of the UM model in simulating COL characteristics can benefit severe weather forecasting and contribute to disaster risk reduction in South Africa.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201808.0340.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: precipitation; tropical rainfall measurement mission (TRMM); multi-satellite precipitation analysis (TMPA); upper indus basin (UIB).
Online: 19 August 2018 (03:53:47 CEST)
The present study aims to evaluate the capability of the TRMM-3B42-(V7) precipitation product to estimate appropriate precipitation rates in the Upper Indus basin (UIB) and the analysis of the dependency of the estimates’ accuracies on the time scale. To that avail statistical analyses and comparison of the TMPA- products with gauge measurements in the UIB are carried out. The dependency of the TMPA estimates’ quality on the time scale is analysed by comparisons of daily, monthly, seasonal and annual sums for the UIB. The results show considerable biases in the TMPA- (TRMM) precipitation estimates for the UIB, as well as high false alarms and miss ratios. The correlation of the TMPA- estimates with ground-based gauge data increases considerably and almost in a linear fashion with increasing temporal aggregation, i.e. time scale. The BIAS is mostly positive for the summer season, while for the winter season it is predominantly negative, thereby showing a slight over-estimation of the precipitation in summer and under-estimation in winter. The results of the study suggest that, in spite of these discrepancies between TMPA- estimates and gauge data, the use of the former in hydrological watershed modelling, endeavoured presently by the authors, may be a valuable alternative in data- scarce regions, like the UIB, but still must be taken with a grain of salt.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202304.0487.v2
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: drought; shock; agro-climate; agriculture; precipitation
Online: 16 October 2023 (10:55:23 CEST)
Both globally and in Hungary, agriculture is one of the industries that is most vulnerable to weather and climate extremes. Intense temperature rises, spatial and temporal variations in precipitation, and significant changes in extreme climatological and weather parameters have contributed to changes in the conditions of cropland, crop losses, and impacts on crop quality in recent years. This paper depicts the transformation of the domestic agricultural sector due to the extreme drought shock of 2022, as well exploring the adaptation strategies applied. The research is based on official agro-climate database and crop data, and the temperature, precipitation, and radiation during the growing season are all examined. The agro-meteorological properties in Hungary had to be investigated for the entire year and all four of its seasons, with indicator analysis projected onto the ever-increasing and dormant seasons. Long-term climate analysis is necessary to understand the historic drought of 2022 and the success of future adaptation and mitigation techniques. The results can help smallholders effectively reduce the adverse impacts of drought conditions, thereby increasing their adaptation to similar shocks.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.1646.v1
Subject: Chemistry And Materials Science, Physical Chemistry Keywords: Asphaltene kinetics, aggregate kinetics, precipitation kinetics
Online: 25 September 2023 (11:03:08 CEST)
Asphaltene precipitation and deposition pose significant operational challenges in both reservoirs and surface facilities by inducing formation damage. To understand the kinetics involved in asphaltene particle nucleation, growth, and aggregation, this study employed confocal microscopy and centrifuge-based methods under a unified set of experimental parameters. The acquired time-resolved particle size images were analyzed using MIPAR image processing software, while asphaltene mass yield was quantitatively evaluated through centrifugation. Experimental conditions were varied to study the effects of heptane concentration, asphaltene concentration, and shear rate. Notably, this investigation introduces, for the first time, the parameter of particle count as an additional variable influencing asphaltene mass production. This study aims to discern how particle count correlates with asphaltene mass yield over time. Results indicate that the minimum mean particle diameter was observed to be 2 microns, which progressively grew up to 80 microns. The mean particle diameter exhibited a positive correlation with both asphaltene concentration and shear rate, whereas an inverse correlation was seen with heptane concentration. Furthermore, the asphaltene mass yield was found to increase with greater asphaltene and heptane concentrations, as well as with higher shear rates. The relationship between mean particle diameter and mass yield was found to be nonlinear. In the early stages, a higher prevalence of small particles contributed to a greater total particle count, while at later stages, particle aggregation led to the formation of larger particles that influenced the overall asphaltene mass. The insights gained from understanding the relationship between particle diameter, count, and mass yield are crucial for advancing the fundamental science of asphaltene precipitation and deposition. These findings may also guide future research that relies solely on particle counts for assessing asphaltene deposition.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202302.0341.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: interpolation; SDM; ENM; precipitation; climatic surfaces
Online: 20 February 2023 (11:54:06 CET)
Ecological niche models have become exceptionally important, since their results allow to un-derstand many aspects related to the biology of the species being studied, even understanding its evolutionary relationships or their response to past or future projections. In this research, models were prepared to create climatic surfaces so as to produce bioclimatic layers based on the mete-orological data of the south of Peru. Temperature and precipitation data from 119 stations were obtained and homogenized. Then, using geographic and orographic covariates, models were prepared so as to obtain climatic surfaces of maximum and minimum temperature, and precipi-tation. The produced layers were evaluated through root-mean-square deviation (RMSD), mean absolute deviation of error (MAD) and goodness of fit (R2), and they were compared to other models for the area. Finally, the 19 bioclimatic surfaces were created. The results show general patterns for temperature and precipitation, some of them being particular. The climatic layers produced showed acceptable values for RMSD, MAD and R2. Comparison with other models shows statistically significant differences. Both the climatic and the produced bioclimatic surfaces were entered into a database for free access. Finally, comments are made on the importance and application of the bioclimatic layers produced here.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202106.0062.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Alaska; SNOTEL; Snowfall accumulation; IMERG; precipitation
Online: 2 June 2021 (10:00:06 CEST)
The combination of snowfall, snow water equivalent (SWE), and precipitation rate measurements from 39 Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) sites in Alaska are used to assess the performance of various precipitation products from satellites, reanalysis, and rain gauges. Observation of precipitation from two water years (2018-2019) of the high resolution radar/rain gauge data (Stage IV) product was also utilized to add insights into scaling differences between various products. The outcomes were also used to assess two popular methods for rain gauge undercatch correction. It was found that SWE and precipitation measurements at SNOTELs, as well as precipitation estimates based on Stage IV data, are generally consistent and can provide a range in which other products can be assessed. Time-series of snowfall and SWE accumulation suggests that most of the products can capture snowfall events; however, differences exist in their accumulation. Reanalysis products tend to overestimate snow accumulation in the study area, while current combined passive microwave remote sensing products (i.e., IMERG-HQ) underestimate snowfall accumulation. We found that corrections factors applied to rain gauges are effective in improving their undercatch, especially for snowfall. However, no improvement in correlation is seen when correction factors are applied, and rainfall is still estimated better than snowfall. Even though IMERG-HQ has less skill in capturing snowfall than rainfall, analysis using Taylor plots showed that the combined microwave product does have skill in capturing the geographical distribution of snowfall and precipitation accumulation, so bias adjustment might lead to reasonable precipitation estimates. This study demonstrates that other snow properties (e.g., SWE accumulation at the SNOTEL sites) can complement precipitation data to estimate snowfall. In the future, gridded SWE and snow depth data from GlobSnow and Sentinel-1 can be used to assess snowfall and its distribution over broader regions.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201901.0117.v2
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: evaporation; moisture budget; precipitation; recycling ratio
Online: 18 January 2019 (12:31:31 CET)
Upper Blue Nile basin (UBNB) is the water tower of Ethiopia and downstream countries. It contributes significant moistures to the surrounding atmosphere. However, the contribution of the moisture from the basin to the precipitation in the area is not well documented. Therefore, this paper is aimed at seasonal variation of upper Blue Nile basin moisture budget and the global moistures in the role of temporal and spatial precipitation variability. To this end, we used European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) data from 1979-2017. The UBNB moisture contributed precipitation in the central parts of the study area during the summer season, while in spring; it contributed in southern part of the study area. Northwest part of the study area got precipitation from the basin moistures during autumn season. The recycling ratios for four seasons (summer, autumn, spring and winter) were 9.70%, 16.33%, 19.01%, and 35.30% respectively. The maximum amount of precipitation is extracted from the local moistures during winter season. The annual average value of recycling ratio was found 20.11%. Hence, we concluded that UBNB moisture budget had lesser contribution of precipitation over the study area. It rather contributed a significant precipitation to the neighboring countries such as Egypt and Sudan. Further studies on moisture budget are required to explain this phenomenon in the context of Ethiopia.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201801.0084.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Geochemistry And Petrology Keywords: antimony; ferrihydrite; silica; adsorption; co-precipitation
Online: 10 January 2018 (07:02:42 CET)
Elevated antimony concentrations in aqueous environments from anthropogenic sources is becoming of global concern, here iron oxides are known to strongly adsorb aqueous antimony species with different oxidation states, but the effect of silica on the removal characteristics is not well understood despite being a common component in the environment. In this study, ferrihydrite was synthesized at various Si/Fe molar ratios to investigate its adsorption and co-precipitation behaviors with aqueous antimony anionic species, Sb(III) and Sb(V). The XRD analyses of the precipitates showed two broad diffraction features at approximately 35° and 62° 2θ, which are characteristic of 2-line ferrihydrite, no significant shifts in peak positions in the ferrihydrite regardless of the Si/Fe ratios. The infrared spectra showed a sharp band at ~990 cm−1, corresponding to asymmetric stretching vibrations of Si-O-Fe bonds which increased in intensity with increasing Si/Fe molar ratios. Further, the surface charge on the precipitates became more negative with increasing Si/Fe molar ratios. The adsorption experiments indicated that Sb(V) was preferentially adsorbed at acidic conditions and decreased dramatically with increasing pH while the adsorption rate of Sb(III) ions was independent of pH, however, the presence of silica suppressed the adsorption of both Sb(III) and Sb(V) ions. The results showed that Sb(III) and Sb(V) ions were significantly inhibited by co-precipitation with ferrihydrite even in the presence of silica by isomorphous substitution in the ferrihydrite crystal structure.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201709.0134.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: multi-sensor fusion; satellite; radar; precipitation
Online: 27 September 2017 (04:09:22 CEST)
This paper presents a new and enhanced fusion module for the Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE) that would objectively blend real-time satellite quantitative precipitation estimates (SQPE) with radar and gauge estimates. This module consists of a preprocessor that mitigates systematic bias in SQPE, and a two-way blending routine that statistically fuses adjusted SQPE with radar estimates. The preprocessor not only corrects systematic bias in SQPE, but also improves the spatial distribution of precipitation based on SQPE and makes it closely resemble that of radar-based observations. It uses a more sophisticated radar-satellite merging technique to blend preprocessed datasets, and provides a better overall QPE product. The performance of the new satellite-radar-gauge blending module is assessed using independent rain gauge data over a 5-year period between 2003-2007, and the assessment evaluates the accuracy of newly developed satellite-radar-gauge (SRG) blended products versus that of radar-gauge products (which represents MPE algorithm currently used in the NWS operations) over two regions: I) inside radar effective coverage and II) immediately outside radar coverage. The outcomes of the evaluation indicate a) ingest of SQPE over areas within effective radar coverage improve the quality of QPE by mitigating the errors in radar estimates in region I; and b) blending of radar, gauge, and satellite estimates over region II leads to reduction of errors relative to bias-corrected SQPE. In addition, the new module alleviates the discontinuities along the boundaries of radar effective coverage otherwise seen when SQPE is used directly to fill the areas outside of effective radar coverage.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202312.0156.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Other Keywords: cmip5; decadal; precipitation; prediction; catchment; multi-model
Online: 4 December 2023 (07:41:48 CET)
The fidelity of the decadal experiment in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5 (CMIP5) has been examined, over different climate variables for different temporal and spatial scales, in many previous studies. However, most of the studies were for the temperature and temperature-based climate indices. A quite limited study was conducted on precipitation of decadal experiment and no attention was paid to a catchment level. This study evaluates the performances of eight GCMs (MIROC4h, EC-EARTH, MRI-CGCM3, MPI-ESM-MR, MPI-ESM-LR, MIROC5, CMCC-CM, and CanCM4) for the monthly hindcast precipitation of decadal experiment over the Brisbane River catchment in Queensland, Australia. First, the GCMs datasets were spatially interpolated onto a spatial resolution of 0.050×0.050 (5 km× 5 km) matching with the grids of observed data and then were cut for the catchment. Next, model outputs are evaluated for temporal skills, dry and wet periods, and total precipitation (over time and space) based on the observed values. Skill test results reveal that model performances varied over the initialization years and showed comparatively higher scores from the initialization year 1990 and onward. Models with finer spatial resolutions show comparatively better performances as opposed to the models of coarse spatial resolutions where MIROC4h outperformed followed by EC-EARTH and MRI-CGCM3. Comparing the skills, models are divided into three categories (Category-I: MIROC4h, EC-EARTH, and MRI-CGCM3; Category-II: MPI-ESM-LR and MPI-ESM-MR; and Category-III: MIROC5, CanCM4, and CMCC-CM). Three multimodel ensembles’ mean (MMEMs) are formed using the arithmetic mean of Category-I (MMEM1), Category-I and II (MMEM2), and all eight models (MMEM3). The performances of MMEMs are also assessed using the same skill tests and MMEM2 performed best which suggests evaluating the models before the formation of MMEM.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202111.0450.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Radar; precipitation; 3D-Var; data assimilation; WRF
Online: 24 November 2021 (10:11:16 CET)
Radar observation data with high temporal and spatial resolution are used in the data assimilation experiment to improve precipitation forecast of a numerical model. The numerical model considered in this study is Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with double-moment 6-class microphysics scheme (WDM6). We calculated radar equivalent reflectivity factor using higher resolution WRF and compared with radar observations in South Korea. To compare the precipitation forecast characteristics of three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) assimilation of radar data, four experiments are performed based on different precipitation types. Comparisons of the 24-h accumulated rainfall with Automatic Weather Station (AWS) data, Contoured Frequency by Altitude Diagram (CFAD), Time Height Cross Sections (THCS), and vertical hydrometeor profiles are used to evaluate and compare the accuracy. The model simulations are performed with and with-out 3D-VAR radar reflectivity, radial velocity and AWS assimilation for two mesoscale convective cases and two synoptic scale cases. The radar data assimilation experiment improved the location of precipitation area and rainfall intensity compared to the control run. Especially, for the two convective cases, simulating mesoscale convective system was greatly improved.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202104.0019.v1
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: bioconcrete; microbes; biomineralization; self-healing; calcite precipitation
Online: 1 April 2021 (12:56:36 CEST)
The advancement of bioconcrete over cementitious composites has brought us to the application of microbes in the field of construction materials. Certain microbes like bacteria, algae, and fungi have been discussed in the review. The purpose of applying these microbes in the matrix is mainly to enhance the concrete’s strength and other properties such as durability, resistance, and self-healing ability. As these microbes are able to induce calcite biomineralizations, the process is also known as Microbiologically Induced Calcite Precipitation (MICP). Some known microorganisms with their mentioned ability are Bacillus subtilis and Bacillus cohnii (bacteria), Chlorella vulgaris and Spirulina platensis (algae), and Trichoderma reesei, Aspergillus niger, and Neurospora crassa (fungi). The paper provides a “state-of-the-art” review of research into the effects of bioconcrete and discusses the overall methodologies of every medium with their physiological, physicochemical and bioengineering properties in the light of recent researches done so far in the same field.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202103.0781.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: NAO; EA; temperature-precipitation covariability; Iberian Peninsula
Online: 31 March 2021 (15:55:23 CEST)
The combined influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the East Atlantic (EA) patterns on the covariability of temperatures and precipitation in 35 stations of the Iberian Peninsula during the period 1950-2019 is analysed in this work. Four EA-NAO composites were defined from teleconnection patterns positive and negative phases: EA+NAO+, EA+NAO-, EA-NAO+, and EA-NAO-. Daily data of maximum and minimum temperature were used to obtain seasonal means (TX, and TN, respectively), and the covariability of these variables with accumulated seasonal rainfall (R) was studied comparing results obtained for different NAO and EA composites. Main results indicate slight differences in the spatial coverage of correlation coefficients between R and temperature variables, except in spring when the generalized negative relationship between R and TX under EA+NAO+ and EA-NAO- disappears under EA-NAO+ and EA+NAO- composites. This result may be useful to interpret and discuss historical reconstructions of Iberian climate.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202101.0112.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: CMIP6; extreme precipitation; model evaluation; east Africa
Online: 6 January 2021 (11:37:37 CET)
This paper presents an analysis of precipitation extremes over the East African region. The study employs six extreme precipitation indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) to evaluate possible climate change. Observed datasets and CMIP6 simulations and projections are employed to assess the changes during the two main rainfall seasons of March to May (MAM) and October to December (OND). The study evaluated the capability of CMIP6 simulations in reproducing the observed extreme events during the period 1995 – 2014. Our results show that the multi-model ensemble (herein referred to as MME) of CMIP6 models can depict the observed spatial distribution of precipitation extremes for both seasons, albeit with some noticeable exceptions in some indices. Overall, MME's assessment yields considerable confidence in CMIP6 to be employed for the projection of extreme events over the study area. Analysis of extreme estimations shows an increase (decrease) in CDD (CWD) during 2081 – 2100 relative to the baseline period in both seasons. Moreover, SDII, R95p, R20mm, and PRCPTOT demonstrate significant OND estimates compared to the MAM season. The spatial variation for extreme incidences shows likely intensification over Uganda and most parts of Kenya, while reduction is observed over the Tanzania region. The increase in projected extremes during two main rainfall seasons poses a significant threat to the sustainability of societal infrastructure and ecosystem wellbeing. The results from these analyses present an opportunity to understand the emergence of extreme events and the capability of model outputs from CMIP6 in estimating the projected changes. More studies are encouraged to examine the underlying physical features modulating the occurrence of extremes incidences projected for relevant policies.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202010.0206.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Anatomy And Physiology Keywords: bioclimatic zones; climate change; precipitation; temperature; trend
Online: 9 October 2020 (14:03:16 CEST)
Abstract Depending upon altitudinal gradient in the Himalayas, the rate of climate change varies from lowland to upland. The Chitwan Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) is the central part of the Himalayas and covers all bioclimatic zones. Analysis of time series data (1970-2019) of temperature and precipitation was carried out in seven bioclimatic zones extending from lowland Terai to higher Himalayas. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was applied to determine the trend, which was quantified by Sen’s slope. Annual and decade interval average temperature, precipitation trends, and lapse rate were analyzed in each bioclimatic zone. Out of seven bioclimatic zones, four zones showed a decreasing precipitation trend (lower tropical, upper tropical, upper subtropical, and alpine bioclimatic zones)at the rate of 1.8, 1.98, 2.06, and 1.80 mm/year, and in lower sub-tropical, temperate, and lower subalpine bioclimatic zones, increasing at the rate of 0.45, 1.81 and 1.28mm/year, respectively. Precipitation did not show any particular trend at decade intervals. The average annual temperature at different bioclimatic zones clearly indicates that temperature at higher elevations is significantly increasing more than at lower elevations. In lower tropical bioclimatic zone (LTBZ), upper tropical bioclimatic zone(UTBZ), lower subtropical bioclimatic zone (LSBZ), upper subtropical bioclimatic zone(USBZ), and temperate bioclimatic zone(TBZ), the average temperature increased by 0.022, 0.030, 0.036, 0.042 and 0.051oC/year, respectively. The decade level temperature scenario revealed that the hottest decade was from 1999-2009. The average temperature was found as 24.1, 21.8, 19.7, 17.5, and 13.3oC in LTBZ, UTBZ, LSBZ, USBZ, and TBZ, respectively, and the average annual precipitation in LTBZ, UTBZ, LSBZ, USBZ, TBZ, LBZ, and ABZ was 2002.1, 2613.1, 2223.9, 3146.9, 1447.2, 952.1, and 361.7mm/year, respectively, in CHAL. With the impact of climate change site and region-specific, this information highlights the need to mitigate climate change in different bioclimatic zones.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202009.0150.v1
Subject: Chemistry And Materials Science, Metals, Alloys And Metallurgy Keywords: Molybdenum; Precipitation; Austenite; Niobium Steels; Strip Casting
Online: 6 September 2020 (16:36:11 CEST)
Two low-C steels microalloyed with Nb were fabricated by simulated strip casting, one with Mo and the other without Mo. Both alloys were coiled at 900 °C to investigate the effect of Mo on the precipitation behaviour in austenite in low-C strip-cast Nb steels. The mechanical properties results show that during the coiling at 900 °C the hardness of both alloys increases and reaches a peak after 3000 s and then decreased after 10,000 s. Additionally, the hardness of the Mo-containing alloy is higher than that of the Mo-free alloy in all coiling conditions. Thermo-Calc predictions suggest that MC-type carbides exist in equilibrium at 900 °C, which are confirmed by transmission electron microscopy (TEM). TEM examination shows that precipitates are formed after 1000 s of coiling in both alloys and the size of the particles is refined by the addition of Mo. Energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS) and electron energy loss spectroscopy (EELS) reveal that the carbides are enriched in Nb and N. The presence of Mo is also observed in the particles in the Nb-Mo steel during coiling. The concentration of Mo in the precipitates decreases with increasing particle size and coiling time. The precipitates in the Nb-Mo steel provide significant strengthening increments of up to 140 MPa, much higher than that in the Nb steel, ~ 96 MPa. A thermodynamic rationale is given, which explains that the enrichment of Mo in the precipitates reduces the interfacial energy between precipitates and matrix. This is likely to lower the energy barrier for their nucleation and also reduce the coarsening rate, thus leading to finer precipitates during coiling at 900 °C.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0192.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: calcium carbonate, karst, precipitation, remote sensing, whiting
Online: 7 August 2020 (11:38:26 CEST)
In the present study, a five-year follow-up was performed by remote sensing of the calcium carbonate precipitation in La Gitana karstic lake (located on the province of Cuenca, Spain). The important role that calcium carbonate precipitation plays in the ecology of the lake is well known for its influence on the vertical migrations of phytoplankton, the concentration of bioavailable phosphorus and, therefore, the eutrophication and quality of the waters. Whiting take place between the months of July and August, and it can be studied at this time through its optical properties, with the main objective of offering updated data on a phenomenon traditionally studied and establishing possible relationships between abiotic factors such as temperature and/or rainfall. The atmospheric temperature data collected by the meteorological station suggest a possible relationship between the appearance of the white phenomenon and a pulse of previous maximum temperatures. On the other hand, no apparent relationship was found between rainfall and water bleaching.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201702.0014.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: temperature; precipitation; ethiopia; mann kendall; climate variability
Online: 5 February 2017 (08:56:29 CET)
Long term Precipitation and temperature variations are one of the main determinants of climate variability of one’s area. The aim of this study is to determine trends variation in climatic elements of temperature and precipitation in the southern zone of Tigray regional state, Ethiopia. The station is assumed for the study of climatic records over southern zone of the region in detection for probable trends. The daily, monthly and annual precipitation totals and temperature observed at korem meteorological station were used for the period of 1981-2010 for Precipitation and 1985 – 2010 for minimum and maximum temperature. Summary of descriptive statistics and Mann Kendall test methods were employed for the observed data analysis to demonstrate any existence of possible trends. The main findings of the study indicated that the mean and maximum temperature had a general increasing trend; however, minimum temperature showed decreasing trend. In general annual temperature from 1985 – 2010 of the area showed a warming trend. Moreover analysis of the 30 years (1981-2010) annual precipitation showed a coefficient of variation ranging from 33.77 – 233 %. It indicated that the precipitation dissemination is not normal with large year to year variances.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.1987.v1
Subject: Engineering, Chemical Engineering Keywords: asphaltene precipitation; asphaltene prediction; asphaltene machine learning model
Online: 28 September 2023 (10:24:29 CEST)
The precipitation, flocculation, and deposition of asphaltene cause severe formation damage within a reservoir and shorten a well’s productive life. Pressure depletion is one factor that contributes to asphaltene precipitation during production; therefore, the first step in managing asphaltene is to determine the onset pressure of the precipitation. While there are numerous equation of state models that can be used to predict the onset pressure, these models are complex and heavily reliant on tuning parameters. Using multivariate linear regression, this work attempts to develop a simple and accurate thermodynamic model for predicting the upper precipitation onset pressure under pressure depletion above the bubble point pressure (Pb) at various temperatures. A total of 94 experimental data points from 37 published crude oil data sets were compiled from the literature. To develop the model, 59 experimental data points were used as training data and 35 experimental data points as testing data. According to the results of the multicollinearity test, the bubble point pressure, temperature, resins, and saturate-to-aromatic ratio were chosen as predictors. The upper onset pressure data with comparable trends were clustered, and unsupervised recognition of three distinct cluster groups was performed. For each cluster identified, a multivariate linear regression model was developed. The model was chosen based on Mallow’s coefficient of determination (Cp), adjusted R2 (statistical measure of fit), and S (standard error of the regression slope). The developed model was tested using a data set, and the results showed an adjusted R2 of 96.25%, with a mean absolute error of 4.1%. The model was randomly applied to 15 data points to compare it to perturbed-chain statistical associated fluid theory (PC SAFT) and the Peng-Robinson equation of state models and to the multivariate regression models of Fahim (2007) and Ameli et al. (2016). The results showed that the mean absolute error for predicting the asphaltene precipitation onset pressure was 2.82% using Peng-Robinson, 2.36% using the PC SAFT equation of state, 23.96% using the Fahim model, 24.80% using the model reported by Ameli et al., and 2.39% using the newly developed multivariate regression model. The developed multivariate model appears to be as accurate as the PC SAFT equation of state modeling with tuning parameters. The primary advantage of multivariate regression is that, unlike the PC SAFT equation of state model, it does not require saturates, aromatics, resins, and asphaltenes (SARA)-based characterization methodologies or rigorous parameter tuning. It is simple to use, quick, and it produces results in a short period of time.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.1632.v1
Subject: Chemistry And Materials Science, Metals, Alloys And Metallurgy Keywords: lattice misfit; dislocation; precipitation; phase field crystal simulation
Online: 23 August 2023 (07:16:22 CEST)
An atomic-scale approach is employed to simulate the formation of precipitates with different lattice misfits in the early stages of aging of supersaturated aluminum alloys. Simulation results reveal that the increase of lattice misfit could significantly promote the nucleation rate of precipitates, which results in a larger number and smaller size of the precipitates. The morphologies of the precipitates also vary with the degree of lattice misfit. Moreover, the higher the lattice misfit, the earlier the nucleation of the second phase occurs, which can substantially inhibit the movement of dislocations. The research on the lattice misfit of precipitation can provide theoretical guidance for the design of high-strength aluminum alloy.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.1202.v2
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Life Sciences Keywords: exosomes; extracellular vesicles; isolation methods; ultrafiltration; precipitation; ultracentrifugation
Online: 18 August 2023 (08:19:24 CEST)
Extracellular vesicles (EVs) are enclosed by a lipid-bilayer membrane and secreted by all types of the cells under various physiological conditions. EVs play important roles in intercellular communication and crosstalk between tissues in the body. They are classified into three groups, such as apoptotic bodies, microvesicles, and exosomes. Exosomes were isolated from biofluids including blood, urine, milk, and cell culture media. Exosomes have significant potential for drug delivery and diagnosis. However, the method of isolation affects the physical and biological properties of exosomes. Several methods based on different principles have been developed for exosome isolation. These include ultrafiltration, precipitation, ultracentrifugation, size-exclusion chromatography, and microfluidics. In this study, we applied three common methods, such as ultrafiltration, precipitation, and ultracentrifugation, to isolate exosomes from the cell culture medium and investigated the effects of these different isolation methods on the size distribution and quality of the isolated exosomes. Field emission scanning electron microscopy (FESEM) images, size distribution, total protein content, and the effect of exosomes on the viability of hypoxic cells were analyzed in this study. The analysis revealed that compared to other methods, the ultracentrifugation method can isolate exosomes with smaller diameter (ranging from 20 to 80 nm), lower total protein content (50 µg/ml), and causing the increased viability of the hypoxic cells. The precipitation method does not require special equipment and is inexpensive, if the quality and purity of this method are solved, and it can be used as the best method for exosome isolation. This study can serve as a guide for choosing the best exosome isolation method for applications in medicine according to the needs, time, cost, and equipment.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202307.1193.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: extreme precipitation; central asia; the polar/eurasia pattern
Online: 18 July 2023 (10:28:17 CEST)
Arid- and semi-arid Central Asia is particularly sensitive to climate change. The changes in extreme precipitation in Central Asia stemming from climate warming are the subject of intense debate within the scientific community. This study employed a Morlet wavelet analysis to examine the annual occurrence number of extreme precipitation in Central Asia from May to September during the period of 1951–2005. Their modulating planetary-scale climate modes were identified by using a linear regression analysis. Two major scales of the temporal variability were derived: 2–3.9 yr and 4–6 yr. The dominant variability was 2–3.9-yr scale and was associated with the negative phase of the Polar/Eurasia (POL) pattern. The 4–6-yr scale provided a secondary contribution and was closely linked to the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). These planetary climate modes acted as precursors of extreme precipitation over Central Asia. The negative phase of POL directly contributed to a negative height anomaly over Central Asia, which was intimately related to extreme precipitation. In contrast, the negative NAO phase possibly manifested as a Rossby wave source, which was subsequently exported to Central Asia through a negative–positive–negative Rossby wave train.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.1373.v1
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: monthly precipitation forecast; wavelet-based machine learning; teleconnections
Online: 19 May 2023 (04:12:22 CEST)
An accurate and timely precipitation forecast is essential for water resources management in hydropower, irrigation, and reservoir control. The conventional methods are limited by their inability to capture the high precipitation variability in time and space. In the present work, a wavelet-based deep learning approach is adopted to forecast precipitation using the lagged monthly rainfall, local climate variables, and global teleconnections such as IOD, PDO, NAO, and Nino 3.4 as predictors. The method was tested and validated over the Krishna River Basin in India. Overall, the forecasting accuracy was higher using the wavelet-based hybrid models than the single-scale models. The proposed multi-scale model was then applied to the different climatic regions of the country, and it was shown that the model could forecast the rainfall at reasonable accuracy for different climate zones of the country.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202207.0146.v2
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Madagascar; GIRE SAVA; Ankavia; satellite precipitation products; IMERG
Online: 11 July 2022 (09:43:47 CEST)
Hydrological modeling for water management in large watersheds requires accurate spatially-distributed rainfall time series. In case of low coverage density of ground-based measurements, satellite precipitation products (SPP) constitute an attractive alternative, the quality of which must nevertheless be verified. The objective of this study was to evaluate, at different time scales, the reliability of six SPPs against a 2-year record from a network of 14 rainfall gauges located in the Ankavia catchment (Madagascar). The SPPs considered in this study are the African Rainfall Estimate Climatology (ARC2), the Climate Hazards group Infrared Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), the ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA5), the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG), the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN), and the African Rainfall Estimation (REF2) products. The results suggest that IMERG (R² = 0.63, slope of linear regression a = 0.96, root mean square error RMSE = 12 mm/day, mean absolute error MAE = 5.5 mm/day) outperforms other SPPs at the daily scale, followed by REF2 (R² = 0.41, a = 0.94, RMSE = 15 mm/day, MAE = 6 mm/day) and ARC2 (R² = 0.30, a = 0.88, RMSE = 16 mm/day, MAE = 6.7 mm/day). All SPPs, with the exception of the ERA5, overestimate the ‘no rain’ class (0 – 0.2 mm/day). ARC2, IMERG, PERSIANN, and REF2 all underestimate rainfall occurrence in the 0.2 – 150 mm/day rainfall range, whilst CHIRPS and ERA5 overestimate it. Only CHIRPS and PERSIANN could estimate extreme rainfall (>150 mm/day) satisfactorily. According to the Critical Success Index (CSI) categorical statistical measure, IMERG performs quite well in detecting rain events in the range 2-150 mm/day, whereas PERSIANN outperforms IMERG for rain events larger than 150 mm/day. Because it performs best at daily scale, only IMERG was evaluated for time scales other than daily. At the yearly and monthly time scales, the performance is good with R² = 0.97 and 0.87, respectively. At the event time scale, the probability distribution function PDF of rain gauge values and IMERG data show good agreement. However, at hourly time scale, the correlation between ground-based measurements and IMERG data becomes poor (R² = 0.20). Overall, the IMERG product can be regarded as the most reliable satellite precipitation source at monthly, daily and event time scales for hydrological applications in the study area, but the poor agreement at hourly time scale and the inability to detect extreme rainfall >200 mm/day may nevertheless restrict its use.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202107.0609.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Aerosol; South Asia; WRF-Chem; Precipitation; CAPE; CIN.
Online: 27 July 2021 (14:45:24 CEST)
The Himalayan region is facing frequent cloud burst and flood events during the summer monsoon e.g., Kedarnath flood of 2013. It was one of the most devastating event which claimed thousands of human lives, heavy infrastructure and economic losses. Fast moving monsoon, pre-existing westerlies, and orographic uplifting was reported as the major reason for cloud burst over Kedarnath in previous research. Our study illustrates the vertical distribution of aerosols during this event and its possible role using Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem) simulations. Model performance evaluation shows that simulations can capture the spatial and temporal pattern of observed precipitation during this event. Model simulation at 25km and 4km horizontal grid resolution without any changes in physical parameterization shows very minimal average difference in precipitation. Whereas simulation at convection permitting scale shows de-tailed information related to parcel motion compared to coarser resolution simulation. This indicates parameterization at different resolution needs to examine for better outcome. The result shows up to 20-50% changes in rain over area near Kedarnath due to the presence of aerosols. The simulation at both resolution shows significant vertical transport of natural (increases by 50%+) and anthropo-genic aerosols (increases by 200%+) during the convective event. Which leads to significant changes in cloud property, rain concentration and ice concentration in presence of aerosols. Due to aero-sol–radiation feedback, the important instability indices like convective available potential energy, convective inhibition energy, vorticity etc. shows changes near Kedarnath.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202102.0111.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: CMIP5/6; Precipitation; Climate extremes; evaluation; East Africa
Online: 3 February 2021 (10:22:24 CET)
This study examines the improvement in coupled intercomparison project phase six (CMIP6) models against the predecessor CMIP5 in simulating mean and extreme precipitation over the East Africa region. The study compares the climatology of the precipitation indices simulated by the CMIP models with the CHIRPS dataset using robust statistical techniques for 1981 – 2005. The results display the varying performance of the general circulation models (GCMs) in the simulation of annual and seasonal precipitation climatology over the study domain. CMIP6-MME shows improved performance in the local annual mean cycle simulation with a better representation of two peaks, especially the MAM rainfall relative to its predecessor. Moreover, simulation of extreme indices is well captured in CMIP6 models relative to its predecessor. The CMIP6-MME performed better than the CMIP5-MME with lesser biases in simulating SDII, CDD, and R20mm over East Africa. Remarkably, most CMIP6 models are unable to simulate extremely wet days (R95p). A few CMIP6 models (e.g., NorESM2-MM and CNRM-CM6-1) depicts robust performance in reproducing the observed indices across all analyses. Conversely, OND season shows the overestimation of some indices (i.e., R95p, PRCPTOT), except for SDII, CDD, and R20mm. Consistent with other studies, the mean ensemble performance for both CMIP5/6 shows better performance due to the cancellation of some systematic errors in the individual models. Generally, the CMIP6 depicts improved performance in the simulation of MAM season akin CMIP5 models. However, the new model generation is still marred with uncertainty, thereby depicting substandard performance over the East Africa domain. This calls for further investigation of attribution studies into the sources of persistent systematic biases and a prerequisite for identifying individual models with robust features that can accurately simulate observed patterns for future usage.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202009.0057.v1
Subject: Chemistry And Materials Science, Applied Chemistry Keywords: Chromium; precipitation; tanning; leather industries; wastewater; sodium hydroxide
Online: 3 September 2020 (04:54:26 CEST)
Abstract The global concern about the leather industries is increasing as the leather industries grow bigger each year. These industries face a very challenging task with an increase in stringent pollution control regulation enforced by various bodies due to environmental concern and human risks. The chromium salts are the most widely used chemical for the tanning process in leather industries, about 35% of chromium used for the tanning process remain as metal and discharge to wastewater stream. The removal and recovery of this quantity of wasted chromium are necessary for environmental pollution control and economic reason. This paper sheds light on the chromium recovery and reuse system of Chromium salts in tanning wastewater by using NaOH as an effective chemical precipitation method to regenerate chromium solution, adapted chrome recovery plant, and evaluated the system technically and economically.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202003.0294.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: remote sensing; precipitation; temperature; GSMaP_Gauge; CHIRPS; CFSR; SWAT
Online: 19 March 2020 (02:37:37 CET)
Precipitation and temperature are significant inputs for hydrological models. Currently, many satellite and reanalysis precipitation and air temperature datasets exist at different spatio-temporal resolutions at a global and quasi-global scale. This study evaluated the performances of three open-access precipitation datasets (gauge-adjusted research-grade Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP_Gauge), Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis(CFSR)) and CFSR air temperature dataset in driving the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model required for the monthly simulation of streamflow in the upper Shiyang River Basin of northwest China. After a thorough comparison of six model scenarios with different combinations of precipitation and air temperature inputs, the following conclusions were drawn: (1) Although the precipitation products had similar spatial patterns, however, CFSR differs significantly by showing an overestimation; (2) CFSR air temperature yielded almost identical performance in the streamflow simulation than the measured air temperature from gauge stations; (3) among the three open-access precipitation datasets, CHIRPS produced the best performance. These results suggested that the CHIRPS precipitation and CFSR air temperature datasets which are available at high spatial resolution (0.05), could be a promising alternative open-access data source for streamflow simulation in the case of limited access to desirable gauge data in the data-scarce area.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202003.0225.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: climate change; aridity; precipitation; Mann-Kendall; Middle East
Online: 13 March 2020 (03:10:51 CET)
Available water resources in the Middle East, as one of the most water-scarce regions of the world, have undergone extra pressure due to climatic change, population growth, and economic development during the past decades. The objective of this study is to detect the trends and quantify the changes in aridity with respect to precipitation and potential evapotranspiration in 20 countries of the Middle East and the adjacent area. A Pixel-wised trend analysis was conducted on precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and aridity index for 71 years from 1948 to 2018. A nonparametric Mann-Kendall test was used over 14106 points in the study area to detect the trends at monthly and annual time scales. Results showed statistically significant (|Z| >1.96) upward trends in aridity (a downward trend in aridity index) up to 96 percent from December through September in most parts of the region. Aridity in October and November had a downward tendency in most parts of the study area. At the annual time scale, 62.5 percent of the statistically significant trends in aridity were found to be upward (up to 96 percent increase in aridity) due to the combined effects of the decrease in precipitation and the increase in potential evapotranspiration and 37.5 percent of the detected trends were downward (up to 61 percent decrease in aridity). The highest and the lowest trends in aridity were found in the north of Sudan (96 percent increase in aridity) and Eastern Arabia (61 percent decrease in aridity), respectively.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202003.0123.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: climate change; temperature; precipitation; anomaly; trends; Zacatecas; Mexico
Online: 7 March 2020 (15:56:50 CET)
Sufficient evidence is currently available to demonstrate the reality of the warming of our planet's climate system. Global warming has different effects on climate at the regional and local levels. The detection of changes in extreme events using instrumental data provides further evidence of such warming and allows for the characterization of its local manifestations. The present study analyzes changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the Mexican state of Zacatecas using climate change indices developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDI). We studied a 40-year period (1976-2015) using annual and seasonal time scales. Maximum and minimum temperature data were used, as well as precipitation statistics from the Mexican climatology database (CLICOM) provided by the Mexican meteorological service. Weather stations with at least 80% of data availability for the selected study period were selected; these databases were subjected to quality control, homogenization, and data filling using Climatol, which runs in the R programming language. These homogenized series were used to obtain daily grides of the three variables at a resolution of 1.3 km. Results reveal important changes in temperature-related indices, such as the increase in maximum temperature and the decrease in minimum temperature. Irregular variability was observed in the case of precipitation, which could be associated with low-frequency oscillations such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The possible impact of these changes in temperature and the increased irregularity of precipitation could have a negative impact on the agricultural sector, especially given that the state of Zacatecas is the largest national bean producer. The most important problems in the short term will be related to the difficulty of adapting to these rapid changes and the new climate scenario, which will pose new challenges in the future.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201712.0150.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Philippines; rainfall; precipitation; Gamma distribution; probability; weather risk
Online: 21 December 2017 (04:43:17 CET)
Philippines as an archipelago and tropical country, which is situated near the Pacific ocean, faces uncertain rainfall intensities. This makes environmental, agricultural and economic systems affected by precipitation difficult to manage. Time series analysis of Philippine rainfall pattern has been previously done, but there is no study investigating its probability distribution. Modeling the Philippine rainfall using probability distributions is essential, especially in managing risks and designing insurance products. Here, daily and cumulative rainfall data (January 1961 - August 2016) from 28 PAGASA weather stations are fitted to probability distributions. Moreover, the fitted distributions are examined for invariance under subsets of the rainfall data set. We observe that the Gamma distribution is a suitable fit for the daily up to the ten-day cumulative rainfall data. Our results can be used in agriculture, especially in forecasting claims in weather index-based insurance.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.1088.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Water Science And Technology Keywords: Amazon; Belem Metropolitan region; precipitation by remote sensing products
Online: 15 August 2023 (08:30:28 CEST)
The aim of this study was to assess precipitation (P) by analyzing data from in situ stations compared with those from solely remote sensing products CHIRP and CMORPH, with a reference station in the city. The evapotranspiration (ET) was analyzed directly using SSEBop. The region chosen for this study was the Metropolitan Area of Belem (MAB), close to the estuary of the Amazon River and the mouth of the Tocantins River. Belem is the rainiest state capital of Brazil, which causes a myriad of problems for the local population. The monthly best fit is shown here. In this study, we analyzed P and ET from local stations and compared them with those from satellite products. The main metrics RMSE, NRMSE, MBE, R2, Slope, and NS were used. For the reference station, the automatic and conventional CHIRP and CMORPH results, in mm/month, were as follows: automatic CHIRP: RMSE = 93,3, NRMSE = 0.32, MBE = −33,54, R2 = 0.7048, Slope = 0.945, NS = 0.5668; CMORPH: RMSE = 195,93, NRMSE = 0.37, MBE = −52,86, R2 = 0.6731, Slope = 0.93, NS = 0.4344; conventional station CHIRP: RMSE = 94.87, NRMSE = 0.32, MBE = −33.54, R2 = 0.7048, Slope = 0.945, NS = 0.5668; CMORPH: RMSE = 105.58, NRMSE = 0.38, MBE = −59.46 R2 = 0.7728, Slope = 1.007, NS = 0.4308. This was compared with the pixel and in situ station data. The ET ranges, on average, between 83 mm/month in the Amazonian summer and 112 mm/month in the Amazonian winter. This work concludes that, although CMORPH has a coarser resolution of 0.25° compared to CHIP’s 0.05° for MAB at a monthly resolution, the remote sensing products were reliable. SSEBop also showed reliable performance. For analyses of the consistency of precipitation time series, these products could provide more accurate information.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202307.0373.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: statistical downscaling; CMIP6; precipitation; drought; climate change; South America
Online: 6 July 2023 (07:42:17 CEST)
Drought events are evident effects of climate change around the globe and yield several socio-economic impacts. Such effects are even more relevant for South America (SA) since different activities essential for the continent, like agriculture and energy generation, depend highly on water resources. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate future changes in precipitation and hydro-logical droughts occurrence in SA through climate projections from eight global climate models (GCMs) of CMIP6. To this end, statistical downscaling was applied to the projections with the Quantile Delta Mapping technique, and the method proved to be efficient in reducing systematic biases and preserving GCMs’ trends. For the following decades, the results show considerable and statistically significant reductions in precipitation over most of SA, especially during the austral spring, with the most intense signal under the SSP5-8.5 forcing scenario. Furthermore, GCMs showed mixed signals about projections of the frequency and intensity of drought events. Still, they indicated agreement regarding the increase in duration and severity of events over all of SA and a substantial proportion of moderate and severe events over most of Brazil during the 21st century. These results can be helpful for better management of water resources by deci-sion-makers and energy planners.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202212.0388.v1
Subject: Chemistry And Materials Science, Chemical Engineering Keywords: alumina; Bayer process; bauxite; seeded precipitation; coarse gibbsite; agglomeration.
Online: 21 December 2022 (06:56:02 CET)
The addition of active seed for increasing the precipitation rate leads to the formation of fine Al(OH)3 particles that complicates separation of solid from the mother liquor. In this study, the enhanced precipitation of coarse Al(OH)3 from sodium aluminate solution using active agglomerated seed was investigated. Aluminum salt (Al2(SO4)3) were used for active agglomerated seed precipitation at the initial of the process. About 50% of precipitation rate was obtained when these agglomerates were used as a seed in the amount of 20 g L–1 at 25 °C within 10 h. The agglomerated active seed and precipitate samples were characterized using X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR). SEM images showed that agglomerates consist of flake-like particles that can be stick together by bayerite (β-Al(OH)3) acting as a binder. The precipitation temperature above 35 °C and the high concentration of free alkali (αk > 3) lead to the agglomerates refinement that can be associated with the bayerite dissolution.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202204.0089.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: climatology; paleoclimatology; temperature; precipitation; climographs; elevational gradients; global warming
Online: 11 April 2022 (08:57:11 CEST)
The varved sediments of the Pyrenean Lake Montcortès (Pallars Sobirà, Lleida) embody a unique continuous high-resolution (annual) paleoarchive of the last 3000 years for the circum-Mediterranean region. A variety of paleoclimatic and paleoecological records have been retrieved from these uncommon sediments that have turned the lake into a regional reference. Present-day geographical, geological, ecological and limnological features of the lake and its surroundings are reasonably well known but the lack of a local weather station has prevented characterization of current climate, which is important to develop modern-analog studies for paleoclimatic reconstruction and to forecast the potential impacts of future global warming. Here, the local climate of the Montcortès area for the period 1955-2020 is characterized using a network of nearby stations situated along an elevational transect in the same river basin of the lake. The finding of statistically significant elevational gradients for annual and monthly average temperature and precipitation has enabled to estimate these parameters and their seasonal regime for the lake site. A representative climograph has been shaped with these data that can serve as a synthetic descriptive and comparative climatic tool. The same analysis has provided climatic data for modern-analog studies useful to improve the interpretation of sedimentary records in climatic and ecological terms. In addition, the seasonal slope shifting of the climatic elevational gradients has been useful to gain insights about possible future climatic trends under a warming scenario.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202112.0474.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Agricultural Science And Agronomy Keywords: Climate change; agroecology; Fragaria x ananassa; precipitation; rainfall simulation
Online: 29 December 2021 (23:20:41 CET)
It is well established that the interacting effects of temperature and precipitation will alter agroecological systems on a global scale. These shifts will influence the fitness of specialty crops, specifically strawberries (Fragaria x ananassa), an important crop in the Northeastern United States. In this study, four precipitation scenarios were developed that are representative of current and probable-future growing season precipitation patterns. Using a precipitation simulator, we tested these scenarios on potted day neutral strawberries. This study generated four primary results: (1) though treatments received different amounts of precipitation, little difference was observed in soil volumetric water content or temperature. However, treatments designed to simulate future conditions were more likely those designed to simulate current conditions to have higher nitrate-in-leachate (N-leachate) concentrations; (2) neither total precipitation nor seasonable distribution were associated with foliar or root disease pressure; (3) while there was a slightly higher chance that photosynthetic potential and capacity would be higher in drier conditions, little difference was observed in the effects on chlorophyll concentration, and no water stress was detected in any treatment; and (4) leaf biomass was likely more affected by total rather than seasonal distribution of precipitation, but interaction between changing rainfall distribution and seasonal totals is likely to be an important driver of root biomass development in the future.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202104.0577.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: WASP-Index; Climate change; Projections; Extreme precipitation; Iberian Peninsula
Online: 21 April 2021 (12:17:36 CEST)
The WASP-Index is computed over Iberia for three monthly timescales in 1961-2020, based on an observational gridded precipitation dataset (E-OBS), and in 2021-2070, based on bias-corrected precipitation generated by a six-member climate model ensemble from EURO-CORDEX, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The WASP performance in identifying extremely dry or wet events, reported by the EM-DAT disaster database, is assessed for 1961–2020. An overall good agreement between the WASP spatial patterns and the EM-DAT records is found. The areolar mean values revealed an upward trend in the frequency of occurrence of intermediate-to-severe dry events over Iberia, which will be strengthened in the future, particularly for the 12m-WASP intermediate dry events under RCP8.5. Besides, the number of 3m-WASP intermediate-to-severe wet events is projected to increase, mostly the severest events under RCP4.5, but no evidence was found for an increase in the number of more persistent (12m-WASP) wet events under both RCPs. Despite important spatial heterogeneities, an increase(decrease) of the intensity, duration, and frequency of occurrence of the 12m-WASP intermediate-to-severe dry(wet) events is found under both scenarios, mainly in the southernmost regions of Iberia, thus becoming more exposed to prolonged and severe droughts in the future, corroborating the results from previous studies.
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: warm cloud-precipitation; cloud radar; ceilometer; disdrometer; South China
Online: 23 October 2019 (03:35:10 CEST)
Warm cloud-precipitation plays a vital role in the hydrological cycle, weather, and climate. Comprehensive observation and study of warm cloud-precipitation can advance our understanding of the internal physical processes and provide valuable information for developing the numerical models. This paper mainly focused on a study of characteristics of warm cloud-precipitation in South China during the pre-flood season using datasets observed from a Ka-band cloud radar, laser ceilometer and disdrometer. Eighteen kinds of quantities from these three instruments were used to precisely elucidate the distribution, diurnal variation, vertical structure, and physical property of warm cloud-precipitation. The results showed that the occurrence of aloft cloud-precipitation decreased with the increase of height, and most of the hydrometeors were distributed below 2 km. During the observation period, the ground rainfall mainly came from light precipitation; however, short-time and sharp showers contributed to the majority of rain amounts. Most of the cloud layers were single-layer, with base heights below 2.2 km, thickness thinner than 2.1 km, and top heights within 0.6-4.2 km. Warm cloud-precipitation owned certain diurnal variations, with a rising trend of cloud base heights in the afternoon and midnight. During 0230-1100, 1200-1800, and 2100-2300, the convections were relatively active with higher cloud tops, thicker cloud thickness, and higher rainfall occurrences. Separation and statistical results of cloud and precipitation indicated that they owned different vertical structures and physical properties, exhibiting different value ranges and changes of radar reflectivity, vertical air motion, particle size, number concentration, liquid water, and rain rate at different height levels. The particle size distributions of cloud and precipitation both were exponential. Radar-derived raindrop size distribution was very coherent with the ground measurement when the reflectivity of precipitation was within 10-20 dBZ. However, for other reflectivity regimes, instrument sensitivity, sampling height, attenuation, and non-precipitating weak targets can affect the comparison.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201906.0026.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: weather radar; quantitative precipitation estimation; remote sensing; hydrological applications
Online: 4 June 2019 (07:41:17 CEST)
Among other applications, radar-rainfall (RR) and QPE (Quantitative Precipitation Estimation) based on radar reflectivity, dual polarization variables, and multi-sensor information, provide important information for land surface hydrology, such as flood forecasting. Therefore, we developed a flood alert system using rainfall-runoff model forced with RR and QPE, and tipping-bucket observations to forecast river water levels (using rating-curves). In this study, we used an hourly dataset from an S-Band dual-polarimetric radar with two tropical R(Z) relations based distrometer data, a polarimetric R(Z,ZDR) algorithm from the literature and a multi-sensor approach using radar, satellite and rain gauge. Two hydrological models were used and calibrated using observed discharge time-series. Although our previous studies indicated accurate RR-based simulations, in some cases floods were not detected when using catchment-lumped rainfall derived from multi-sensor QPE. In this study, we advance further in this subject using improved R(Z,ZDR) relations and QPE for the period of 2016-2017 and flood event-based rainfall-runoff calibration. Thus, we focused on the development (and timing) of floods in the Marrecas River can be complex and strongly related to storms spatiotemporal distribution. To explore this aspect, we also perform a first analysis in using RR in rainfall-runoff model with a nested catchment discretization.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201811.0340.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: damaged area; direct economic loss; disaster; drought; extreme precipitation
Online: 15 November 2018 (04:26:41 CET)
Understanding the distribution in drought and floods plays an important role in disaster risk management. The present study aims to explore the trends in the standardized precipitation index and extreme precipitation days in China, as well as to estimate the economic losses they cause. We found that in the Northeast China, northern of North China and northeast of Northwest China were severely affected by drought disasters (average damaged areas were 6.44 million hectares) and the most severe drought trend was located in West China. However, in the north of East China and Central China, the northeastern of the Southwest China was severely affected by flood disasters (average damaged areas were 3.97 million hectares) and the extreme precipitation trend is increasing in the northeastern of the Southwest China. In the Yangtze River basin, there were increasing trends in terms of drought and extreme precipitation, especially in the northeastern of the Southwest China, where accompanied by severe disaster losses. By combining the trends in drought and extreme precipitation days with the distribution of damaged areas, we found that the increasing trend in droughts shifted gradually from north to south, especially in the Southwest China, and the increasing trend in extreme precipitation gradually shifted from south to north.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201809.0512.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Food Science And Technology Keywords: parenteral nutrition, neonatal solution; calcium; phosphate; organic; inorganic; precipitation;
Online: 26 September 2018 (13:57:18 CEST)
The aim of the study was to determine the maximum safe concentration of calcium and phosphate in neonatal parenteral nutrition (PN) solutions when various combinations of inorganic and organic salts are applied. Twelve PN solutions for neonatal use were aseptically prepared. Increasing concentration of inorganic and organic calcium and phosphate were added to the standard formulas. Each admixture was separately tested according to following conditions; after mixing, 37°C for 24 h, and maximum safe combination of calcium and phosphate were stored at 4°C for 30 days and followed by 24 h at 37°C. Visual inspections against a black and white contrast background, microscopic observation of undiluted PN solutions as well as the membrane filter after filtration of the PN solution, pH evaluation, and spectrophotometry at 600 nm were examined in triplicate. Safe maximum concentration of organic and inorganic calcium and phosphate was proposed individually for each composition of parenteral nutrition solutions. Surprisingly organic calcium with organic phosphate showed precipitation but over the therapeutic range. The protective effect of amino acid was observed and higher concentrations of calcium and phosphate were free of precipitation.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201806.0055.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: quality control; validation; reconstruction of missing data; temperature; precipitation
Online: 5 June 2018 (08:42:40 CEST)
This study provides a unique procedure for validating and reconstructing temperature and precipitation data. Although developed from data in Middle Italy, the validation method is intended to be universal, subject to appropriate calibration according to the climate zones analysed. This~research is an attempt to create shared applicative procedures that are most of the time only theorized or included in some software without a clear definition of the methods. The purpose is to detect most types of errors according to the procedures for data validation prescribed by the World Meteorological Organization, defining practical operations for each of the five types of data controls: gross error checking, internal consistency check, tolerance test, temporal consistency, and~spatial consistency. Temperature and~precipitation data over the period 1931--2014 were investigated. The~outcomes of this process have led to the removal of 375 records (0.02%) of temperature data from 40 weather stations and 1286 records (1.67%) of precipitation data from 118 weather stations, and 171 data points reconstructed. In conclusion, this work contributes to the development of standardized methodologies to validate climate data and provides an innovative procedure to reconstruct missing data in the absence of reliable reference time series.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201701.0128.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: Precipitation; Tibetan Plateau; trends; temporal-spatial distribution; hydrological cycle;
Online: 29 January 2017 (09:43:00 CET)
The Tibetan Plateau(TP) is known as ‘the water tower of Asian’, its precipitation variation play an important role in the eco-hydrological processes and water resources regimes. based on the monthly mean precipitation data of 65 meteorological stations over the Tibetan Plateau and the surrounding areas from 1961-2015,variations, trends and temporal-spatial distribution were analyzed, furthermore, the possible reasons were also discussed preliminarily. The main results are summarized as follows: the annual mean precipitation in the TP is 465.54mm during 1961-2015, among four seasons, the precipitation in summer accounts for 60.1% of the annual precipitation, the precipitation in summer half year (May.- Oct.) accounts for 91.0% while that in winter half year (Nov.- Apr.) only accounts for 9.0%; During 1961-2015, the annual precipitation variability is 0.45mm/a and the seasonal precipitation variability is 0.31mm/a, 0.13mm/a, -0.04mm/a and 0.04mm/a in spring, summer, autumn and winter respectively on the TP; The spatial distribution of precipitation can be summarized as decreasing from southeast to northwest in the TP, the trend of precipitation is decreasing with the increase of altitude, but the correlation is not significant. The rising of air temperature and land cover changes may cause the precipitation by changing the hydrologic cycle and energy budget, furthermore, different pattern of atmospheric circulation can also influence on precipitation variability in different regions.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201611.0073.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: rainfall; TMPA; CMORPH; Pra basin; satellite-based precipitation; Ghana
Online: 14 November 2016 (07:39:44 CET)
Satellite-based rainfall estimation products provide a vital alternative source of rainfall data in areas where conventional precipitation measurement is not readily available. In order to facilitate the use of these products there is the need to evaluate their accuracies. This study evaluated the accuracy of three satellite rainfall products; TMPA 3B42RT, TMPA 3B42 and CMORPH in the Pra basin (23,330 km2) of Ghana. The evaluation was through the point-to-pixel method by comparing 0.25°x 0.25° satellite grids to gauged rainfall based on gauge locations and analyzed statistically using correlation coefficient (r), bias and percent bias (pBias) as the performance verification methods. Seven (7) gauge stations with no missing data for the period of 2003-2008 was used in the evaluation. The analysis was based on daily, monthly, annual and seasonal timescales. Our results showed a good correlation between the TMPA products and the gauged data on all timescales considered. The CMORPH on the other hand showed huge overestimation at all gauge locations. The TMPA 3B42 was seen to be the best amongst the three products. The overall rainfall in the basin was well depicted by the TMPA 3B42 and 3B42RT. Although there wasn’t a perfect match between the 3B42RT and 3B42 products and the gauged rainfall, these products can be used to supplement gauged rainfall measurements in the basin and in estimation of rainfall in ungauged basins with similar characteristics.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202002.0368.v1
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: Aridity Index (AI); Percentage of Normal Index (PNI); Standardized Precipitation -Evopotranspiration Index (SPEI); Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI); Drought; Factor Analysis; Reliability Analysis
Online: 25 February 2020 (11:09:28 CET)
The climate covers a series of events that deeply affect human life. It is possible to understand these events through spatial and statistical analyzes. Today, climate change, which is one of the most important of these events and the impact factors of consequences of this change, become a current issue. Drought is cited as one of the consequences of climate change and it is important to examine it with various methods as it can give negative results to both the economy and the nature. In this study, the drought status of the regions where these stations are located and the effects of drought on climate change were statistically calculated and evaluated using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Percentage of Normal Index (PNI), Aridity Index (AI) and Standardized Precipitation -Evopotranspiration Index (SPEI). The precipitation data from 1981 to 2010 were obtained from Cihanbeyli, Karapınar, Çumra, Seydişehir, Kulu, Ereğli, Niğde, Karaman, Beyşehir and Aksaray meteorology stations affiliated to Turkish State Meteorological Service. At the same time, factor analysis and validity-reliability analysis were conducted to test the computability of the indices used in the study as a single index and to determine the reliability of the operations. While using exploratory factor analysis, Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) test and Barlett test for factor analysis; Cronbach's alpha coefficient was used for reliability analysis. In our study, K-Means Cluster Analysis method was performed to determine the cutoff values of indices. According to the result of cluster analysis for the new (common) index, new clusters were created and ANOVA test was conducted to determine whether there was a difference between clusters.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.0809.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Geography Keywords: NEX-GDDP-CMIP6; extreme precipitation; climate change; Huaihe River Basin
Online: 13 September 2023 (09:52:52 CEST)
This research analyses extreme precipitation events in the Huaihe River Basin in China, a densely populated region with a history of human settlements and agricultural activities. This study aims to explore the impact of extreme precipitation index changes and provide decision-making suggestions for flood early warning and agricultural development in the Huaihe River Basin. The study utilises the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 climate models dataset and the daily value dataset (V3.0) from China's national surface weather stations to investigate temporal and spatial changes in extreme precipitation indices from 1960 to 2014 and future projections. At the same time, this study adopted the RclimDex model, Taylor diagram and Sen+Mann-Kendall trend analysis research methods to analyse the data. The results reveal a slight increase in extreme precipitation indices from northwest to southeast within the basin, except for CDD, which shows a decreasing trend. Regarding spatial, the future increase of extreme precipitation in the Huaihe River Basin will show a spatial variation characteristic that decreases from northwest to southeast. These findings suggest that extreme precipitation events are intensifying in the region. Understanding these trends and their implications is vital for adaptation strategy planning and mitigating the risks associated with extreme precipitation events in the Huaihe River Basin.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.0156.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Artificial Intelligence And Machine Learning Keywords: deep learning; feature attribution; gaussian noise; LSTM; precipitation prediction; RMSE
Online: 5 September 2023 (03:03:04 CEST)
This paper explores the use of different deep learning models for predicting precipitation in 56 meteorological stations in Jilin Province, China. The models used include Stacked-LSTM, Transformer, and SVR, and Gaussian noise is added to the data to improve their robustness. Results show that the Stacked-LSTM model performs the best, achieving high prediction accuracy and stability. The study also conducts variable attribution analysis using LightGBM and finds that temperature, dew point, precipitation in previous days, and air pressure are the most important factors affecting precipitation prediction, which is consistent with traditional meteorological theory. The paper provides detailed information on the data processing, model training, and parameter settings, which can serve as a reference for future precipitation prediction tasks. The findings suggest that adding Gaussian noise to the dataset can improve the model's generalization ability, especially for predicting days with zero precipitation. Overall, this study provides useful insights into the application of deep learning models in precipitation prediction and can contribute to the development of meteorological forecasting and applications.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.2068.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Raindrop Size Distribution; Microphysical Characteristics; LSMT Neural Network; Precipitation Forecasting
Online: 30 August 2023 (09:47:49 CEST)
Raindrop size distribution (RSD) is an index for reflecting precipitation characteristics. Analyzing the differences of RSD plays an important role in understanding the precipitation microphysical processes and improving quantitative precipitation prediction of radar. In this paper, the RSD data of Dafang (57708) station, Majang (57828) station, and Luodian (57916) station (with an altitude of 1722.7m, 985.0m, and 441.5m, respectively) in Guizhou are analyzed according to the precipitation microphysical characteristics. First,Particles with particle size less than 1mm contributes the highest value to the density of particle number , and decrease with the descending altitude. Second, the GAMMA distribution fit shows a better fit compare to M-P distribution fit, and GAMMA distribution fit increases with the ascending altitude. Third, the mass-weighted average diameter is not sensitive enough to the change of precipitation intensity with correlation coefficients of 54.84%, but there is a obvious relationship between the average volume diameter and the precipitation intensity with correlation coefficients of 69.15%. Then, the precipitation prediction model is established using LSTM neural network after fusing the representative microphysical characteristics of RSD with radar and rain gauge data. The precipitation prediction model is applied to the Dafang (57708) site to predict precipitation for time range of 0-180 minutes, and it is found that for the prediction of convective cloud and stratiform cloud precipitation, the 60-minute prediction results are the most consistent with the actual precipitation, where the correlation coefficients are 92.87% and 92.57%, respectively. Conclusively, the results demonstrate that combining with the RSD base data could improve the reliability of precipitation forecasting.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202307.0859.v1
Subject: Engineering, Automotive Engineering Keywords: Autonomous vehicles; weather; automotive; modelling; precipitation; rain; snow; dimensional analysis
Online: 13 July 2023 (12:25:45 CEST)
With advances in the development of autonomous vehicles (AVs), more attention has been paid to the effects caused by adverse weather conditions on them. It is well known that the performance of self-driving vehicles is reduced when they are exposed to stressors that impair visibility or generate water or snow accumulation on sensor surfaces. This paper proposes a model to quantify weather precipitation, such as rain and snow, perceived by moving vehicles based on outdoor data. The modelling covers a wide range of parameters, such as varying wind direction and realistic particle size distributions. The model allows the calculation of precipitation intensity on inclined surfaces of different orientations and on a circular driving path. The modelling results were partially validated against direct measurements carried out by a test vehicle. The model outputs showed strong correlation with the experimental data for both rain and snow. Mitigation strategies for heavy precipitation on vehicles can be developed and correlations between precipitation rate and accumulation level can be traced using the presented analytical model. Dimensional Analysis of the problem has highlighted the critical parameters that can help the design of future experiments. The obtained results highlight the importance of the angle of the sensing surface on the perceived precipitation level. The proposed model is used to analyze optimal orientations for minimization of the precipitation flux, which can help to determine the positioning of sensors on the surface of autonomous vehicles.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.2213.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: climate change; perception; impacts; temperature; precipitation; agricultural community; Bamyan; Afghanistan
Online: 2 June 2023 (05:05:52 CEST)
Climate change affects both human and natural systems. Afghanistan ranked globally on the top of highly vulnerable countries to the adverse effects of climate change. The agricultural communities of Afghanistan is highly affected by climate change. Understanding farmers’ real experiences on changing climate become crucial in planning the future adaptation strategies. This study assessed the farmers' perception of climate change and its impacts on farming communities. Primary data were collected through face-to-face interviews conducted with 120 household heads. Additional qualitative data were collected by conducting 4 Focus Group Discussions (FGDs), 4 Historical Timeline Calendars (HTCs), 18 Key Informant Interviews (KII), and sketches of 4 Crop Calendars. The study reveals that climate indicators have varied and changed. The farmers express their experiences of decreasing snowfall in winter and annual rainfall in spring and summer, which led to the intensity and frequency of drought and water shortages for agriculture and rangelands in the upper and lower part of the valleys. The temperatures in winter and summer have increased and led to earlier snow melting, earlier blooming, flowering, and greening of the plants. These changes affected both positively and negatively. There is a half-month new opportunity for cultivation and increased earlier animal ranching in the rangelands. These findings can be valuable inputs for developing effective and efficient adaptation strategies.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202302.0459.v1
Subject: Chemistry And Materials Science, Nanotechnology Keywords: copper ferrite; magnetic properties; anion-exchange resin precipitation; magnetic nanoparticles
Online: 27 February 2023 (08:38:56 CET)
Copper ferrite attracts a lot of interest from researchers as a material with unique magnetic, optical, catalytic and structural properties. In particular, the magnetic properties of this material are structurally sensitive and can be tuned by changing the distribution of Cu and Fe cations in octahedral and tetrahedral positions by controlling synthesis parameters. In this study, we propose a new simple and convenient method for the synthesis of copper ferrite nanoparticles using a strongly basic anion exchange resin in OH form. The effect and possible mechanism of polysaccharides addition on the elemental composition, yield and particle size of CuFe2O4 is investigated and discussed. It is shown that anion exchange resin precipitation leads to a mixture of unstable at standard temperature cubic (c-CuFe2O4) and stable tetragonal (t-CuFe2O4) phases. The effect of the reaction conditions on the c-CuFe2O4 stability is studied by temperature-dependent XRD measurements and discussed in terms of the cations distribution, Jahn−Teller distortion and Cu2+ and oxygen vacancies in the copper ferrite lattice. The obtained differences in the values of saturation magnetization and the coercive force of prepared samples are explained with a reference to variations in the particle sizes and the structural characteristics of copper ferrite.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202204.0139.v1
Subject: Chemistry And Materials Science, Metals, Alloys And Metallurgy Keywords: Directed energy deposition; functionally graded materials; precipitation; high-throughput design
Online: 15 April 2022 (08:31:40 CEST)
Directed energy deposition (DED) is an efficient method to fabricate functionally graded materials (FGMs) with gradient composition and complex structures, allowing for local tailoring of properties instead of the costly need for extraneous welds and joints. In this study, a FGM from stainless steel to Inconel alloy was successfully fabricated using the powder-based laser DED. A very refined grain structure has been observed in at the composition with 75 wt.% Inconel alloy content, which also exhibits the highest (entropy). For the first time, the post heat treatments, microstructure and aging precipitation behaviors of FGMs were systematically studied via experimental characterization and computation, to elucidate their effects on the gradient smoothing and mechanical properties. The diffusion and segregation of Ni, Nb and Ti elements underly the transformation mechanism between Laves, δ, γ’ and γ’’ phases during precipitation. Homogenization on FGMs not only eliminates the heterogeneity inherited from the AM process, but also provides a practical way to smoothen the gradient on composition and microstructure for the eventual good gradient properties. It has a direct influence on the following precipitation behaviors in the FGM, which highly relies on the diffusion degree of the elements in the matrix and grain boundaries. The high-throughput thermodynamic modeling and kinetic modeling were exploited to evaluate the experimental microstructure and address computational uncertainty using different thermodynamic conditions and databases, which enables an accelerated design through local tailoring of process-structure-property relationships to develop new functional materials.
CONCEPT PAPER | doi:10.20944/preprints202105.0580.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Teleconnections; Precipitation; Mann Kendall; Partial Mann Kendall; Climate Indices; Trends
Online: 24 May 2021 (15:09:34 CEST)
Precipitation plays vital role in the economy of agricultural country like Pakistan. Baluchistan being the largest province of Pakistan in term of land is facing reoccurring droughts as well as flashflood due unprecedent torrential precipitation pattern.
Subject: Chemistry And Materials Science, Metals, Alloys And Metallurgy Keywords: ODS steel; mechanical alloying; spark plasma sintering; zirconium; co-precipitation
Online: 17 February 2021 (10:10:06 CET)
Currently, one of the biggest issues when developing an ODS alloy is the competition established between the different oxide precursors during the precipitation of oxides which nature depends on their chemical composition. In the presence of various precursors, usually the one with the highest affinity to oxygen leads to the absence of the other oxides. In this work, a new process to equilibrate the local concentration of species and to decrease the competition among them is explained. A unique compound, containing the diverse oxide precursors as one complex oxide, is introduced in a prealloyed 14Cr Steel powder via mechanical alloying. Thus, generating environments enriched in Y, Ti and Zr which, after consolidation, refine the oxides precipitation improving the thermal stability of the alloy. SPS were used as consolidation technique to guarantee shorter sintering times and to maintain the nanostructure obtained. Mechanical properties were tested by tensile tests and Vickers microhardness.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201910.0117.v1
Subject: Engineering, Industrial And Manufacturing Engineering Keywords: SART process; precipitation aggregates; image analysis; microscopy; particle size distribution
Online: 10 October 2019 (10:55:10 CEST)
Precipitation processes are technologies commonly used in hydrometallurgical plants to recover metals or to treat wastewaters. Moreover, solid-liquid separation technologies, such as thickening or filtering, are relevant unit operations, included in the precipitation technologies. These methods are strongly dependent on the characteristics of the solid precipitates formed during the specific precipitation reaction. One of these characteristics is the particle size distribution (PSD) of the solid precipitates which are fed into a solid-liquid separation process. Therefore, PSD determination is a typical practice for the characterization of the slurries generated in a precipitation plant. Furthermore, the precipitates generated in these processes have a colloidal or aggregation behavior, depending on the operational conditions. Nevertheless, the conventional methods used to estimate PSD (e.g., laser diffraction and/or ciclosizer) have not been designed to measure particles that tend to aggregate or disaggregate, since they include external forces (e.g., centrifugal, agitation, pumping and sonication). These forces affect the true size of the aggregates formed in a unit operation, thereby losing representativity in terms of aggregates particle size. This study presents an alternative method of measuring the size distribution of particles with aggregation behavior, particularly, by using non-invasive microscopy and image processing and analysis. The samples used have been obtained from an experimental precipitation process by applying sulfidization to treat the cyanide-copper complexes contained in a cyanidation solution. This method has been validated with statistical tools and compared with a conventional analysis based on laser diffraction. Our results show significant differences between the methods analyzed, demonstrating that image processing and analysis by microscopy is an excellent and non-invasive alternative to obtaining size distribution of aggregates in precipitation processes.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201808.0068.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Harmonie model; radar data assimilation; pre-processing; mesoscale precipitation patterns
Online: 3 August 2018 (12:56:15 CEST)
This study presents a pre-processing approach adopted for the radar reflectivity data assimilation and results of simulations with the Harmonie numerical weather prediction model. The method shows an improvement of precipitation prediction within the radar location area in both the rain rates and spatial pattern presentation. With the assimilation of radar data, the model simulates larger water content in the middle troposphere within the layer from 1 to 6 km, with major variations at 2.5–3 km; it also reproduces better the mesoscale belt and cell patterns of precipitation fields.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201805.0266.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: rainfall; lidar; disdrometer; evaporation; meteorology; climate change; latent heat; precipitation
Online: 21 May 2018 (11:09:01 CEST)
In this paper we illustrate a new, simple and complementary ground-based methodology to retrieve the vertically resolved atmospheric precipitation intensity through a synergy between measurements from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Micropulse Lidar network (MPLNET), an analytical model solution and ground-based disdrometer measurements. The presented results are obtained at two mid-latitude MPLNET permanent observational sites, located respectively at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, USA, and at the Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain. The methodology is suitable to be applied to existing and/or future lidar/ceilometer networks with the main objective of either providing near-real time (3h latency) rainfall intensity measurements and/or to validate satellite missions, especially for critical light precipitation (<3 mm hr−1).
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201708.0030.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: Joint entropy; NDVI; temperature; precipitation; groundwater depth; Hei River basin
Online: 8 August 2017 (08:42:54 CEST)
Terrestrial vegetation dynamics are closely influenced by a multitude of factors. This study investigated the relationships between vegetation patterns and their main influencing factors. The joint entropy method was employed to evaluate the dependence between normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and coupled variables in the middle reaches of Hei River basin. Based on the spatial distribution of mutual information, the whole study area was divided into five sub-regions. In each sub-region, nested statistical models were applied to model the NDVI on the grid and regional scales, respectively. Results showed that the annual average NDVI increased with a rate of 0.005/a in recent 11 years. In the desert regions, the NDVI increased significantly with an increase in precipitation and temperature, and high accuracy of retrieving NDVI model was obtained by coupling precipitation and temperature, especially in sub-region I. In the oasis regions, groundwater was also an important factor driving vegetation growth, and the rise of groundwater level contributed to the growth of vegetation. However, the relationship was weaker in artificial oasis regions (sub-region III and sub-region V) due to the influence of human activities, such as irrigation. The overall correlation coefficient between the observed NDVI and modeled NDVI was observed to be 0.97. Outcomes of this study are suitable for ecosystem monitoring, especially under the realm of climate change. Further studies are necessary and should consider more factors, such as runoff and irrigation.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.0405.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Balochistan; Bias correction; CORDEX‐SA; droughts; Pakistan; standardized precipitation index (SPI)
Online: 6 September 2023 (10:35:09 CEST)
Water resources planners and policymakers often ask questions about the future projections of drought characteristics (events, intensity, severity, duration, and peak) under different climatic scenarios. This study focused on quantifying the historical (1951-2005) and future (2026-2100) drought characteristics using the Standardized precipitation index (SPI) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios for the Balochistan province of Pakistan, an arid and drought-vulnerable region. Precipitation data of MPI-ESM-LR_RCA4 RCM was obtained from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment South Asia (CORDEX-SA). The CORDEX-SA data was interpolated at 12-gauge stations and bias-corrected by the distribution mapping method using Asian Precipitation - Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration towards Evaluation (APHRODITE) data. The drought characteristics were calculated based on standardized precipitation index (SPI), and intercompared between northern Balochistan (NB) and southern Balochistan (SB). It was found that the northern Balochistan (NB) region has suffered more droughts in the historical period and is also projected to have more severe and intense droughts than SB region. It was also found that with the increase of drought events, the duration reduces, which means that the higher the drought events at a station, the lower the drought duration. Government officials should focus more on managing the already few freshwater resources sustainably, given the increased likelihood of droughts in Balochistan due to climate change.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.0579.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Remote Sensing Keywords: Rainfall erosivity; satellite precipitation product; IMERG; Hourly observed rainfall; Peru; Andes
Online: 8 August 2023 (10:56:40 CEST)
In soil erosion estimation models, the variable with the greatest impact is rainfall erosivity (RE), which is the measurement of precipitation energy and its potential capacity to cause erosion, and erosivity density (ED), which relates RE to precipitation. The RE requires high temporal resolution records for its estimation. However, due to the limited observed information and the increasing availability of rainfall estimates based on remote sensing, recent research has shown the usefulness of using observed-corrected satellite data for RE estimation. This study evaluates the performance of a new gridded dataset of RE and ED in Peru (PISCO_reed) by merging data from the IMERG v06 product, through a new calibration approach with hourly records of automatic weather stations, during the period of 2000-2020. By using this method, a correlation of 0.7 was found between the PISCO\_reed and RE obtained by the observed data. An average annual RE for Peru of 4831 MJ·mm·ha-1·h-1 was estimated with a general increase towards the lowland Amazon regions and high values are found on the north-coast Pacific area of Peru. The spatial identification of the most risk areas of erosion, was carried out through a relationship between the ED and rainfall. Both erosivity data sets will allow us to expand our fundamental understanding and quantify soil erosion with greater precision.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.2157.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: Precipitation monitoring; rainfall measurement biases; rain gauge; measurement error; hydrological forecast
Online: 30 May 2023 (13:58:36 CEST)
Tipping bucket rain gauges (TBRs) have been, and apparently will continue to be one of the most widely used pieces of equipment for rainfall monitoring, being frequently used for the calibration, validation and downscaling of radar and remote sensing data, due to their major advantages–low cost, simplicity, and low energy consumption. Thus, many works have focused and continue to focus on their main disadvantage–measurement biases (mainly in wind and mechanical underestimations). However, despite arduous scientific effort, calibration methodologies are not frequently implemented by monitoring networks operators or data users, propagating bias in databases and in the different applications of such data, causing uncertainty in the modeling, management, and forecasting in hydrological research, mainly due to a lack of knowledge. Within this context, this work presents a review of the scientific advances in TBR measurement uncertainties, calibration, and error reduction strategies from a hydrological point of view, by describing different rainfall monitoring techniques in Section 2, summarizing TBR measurement uncertainties in Section 3, focusing on calibration, and error reduction strategies in Section 4, a discussion and perspectives in Section 5, and conclusions in Section 6, providing an overview of the of the state of the art and future perspectives of the technology.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.0811.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Water Science And Technology Keywords: Djibouti; rainfall; precipitation datasets; categorical metrics,; quantitative metrics; reliability; rain gauges
Online: 11 May 2023 (07:18:45 CEST)
The Republic of Djibouti is a small country in the Horn of Africa and, as in most developing countries, rain gauges are sparse and data are scarce. This study aims to report on the reliability of gridded precipitation datasets (P datasets) across the Republic of Djibouti through direct comparisons with rain gauge measurements from the annual to the daily time scales. Our specific objective is to be able to use such products in the context of hydrological modeling at a daily time step. Given the scarcity of available data in the Republic of Djibouti, our study was carried out on two time windows (1980-1990 and 2008-2013) and two gauge networks with different spatial resolutions: the southeast of the Republic of Djibouti (5000 km2) and the Ambouli catchment (794 km2), which drains the city of Djibouti. The reliability of these products is analyzed with quantitative metrics and categorical metrics, exclusively at a daily time step for the latter. The performance of the P datasets degrades from the annual time scale to the daily time scale. Even though the same products exhibit the best performance at the various time scales, the performance of most of the products differs from one spatial scale to another. Our results demonstrate the importance of the temporal and spatial windows, as the same products can perform differently according to the scale. For all the spatiotemporal scales, the most reliable product is MSWEP v.2.2. This P dataset is derived from a combination of satellite products (multiple sensors such as infrared and passive microwave), reanalysis products, and rain gauge observations. A strong discrepancy between rain gauge observations and P datasets is revealed according to the categorical metric at a daily time step. The analysis of rainfall events triggering runoff, using a 10 mm rainfall threshold showed that the most efficient products were unable to accurately detect such events at a daily time step, with a significant underestimation of rainfall events higher than 10 mm. None of these products, even the most reliable, can be used for a calibration/validation of a hydrological model at a daily time step.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202112.0229.v1
Subject: Chemistry And Materials Science, Analytical Chemistry Keywords: human urine; K-struvite precipitation; nutrient recovery; operation parameters; solid phases
Online: 14 December 2021 (11:46:20 CET)
The impact of nutrients on the environment, particularly on water bodies, has led to extensive studies for nutrient control. Within this context, studies have been focused on source separation of human urine from domestic wastewater to recover nutrients. Potassium is one of the most important components of human urine. However, data on potassium removal or recovery are quite limited except for some indirect information through use of zeolites for mostly ammonia removal. Potassium struvite or K-struvite (MgKPO4·6H2O) is a sparingly soluble salt belonging to struvite and has the potential of being used as a means of potassium and phosphate recovery from segregated human urine. This study aimed to assess the potential of K-struvite precipitation for control and recovery of nutrients. Within this context, K-struvite precipitation experiments were performed on both synthetically prepared samples and synthetic human urine solution to determine effect of operation parameters i.e. pH, stoichiometry, and temperature on potassium recovery performance. Results indicated that process performance as well as type of solid phases co-precipitated with K-struvite were closely related to initial potassium concentration, pH and reaction stoichiometry. At pH 10, the potassium recovery efficiency was maximized up to 87% by application of 100% excess dose of Mg and P for both synthetic samples and synthetic human urine solution. On the other hand, application of excess dose of K did not provide any improvement in K recovery efficiency. The effect of temperature on solubility of K-struvite was insignificant at the temperature of 24-90°C. Solid phase analyses confirmed that K-struvite was co-precipitated with either Mg3(PO4)2, MgNaPO4·7H2O, or MgHPO4·7H2O depending on pH and stoichiometry instead of a pure compound.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202106.0104.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: hydrological research basin; precipitation; temperature; long-term trends; climate change; evapotranspiration
Online: 3 June 2021 (11:35:58 CEST)
While the ongoing climate change is well documented, the impacts exhibit a substantial variability, both in direction and magnitude, visible even at regional and local scales. However, the knowledge of regional impacts is crucial for the design of mitigation and adaptation measures, particularly when changes in the hydrological cycle are concerned. In this paper we present hydro-meteorological trends based on observations from a hydrological research basin in Eastern Austria between 1979-2019. The analysed state variables include the air temperature, the precipitation, and the catchment runoff. Additionally, trends for the catchment evapotranspiration were derived. The analysis shows that while the mean annual temperature was decreasing and annual temperature minima remained constant, the annual maxima were rising. The long-term trends indicate a shift of precipitation to the summer with minor variations observed for the remaining seasons and at an annual scale. Observed precipitation intensities mainly increased in spring and summer between 1979-2019. The catchment evapotranspiration, computed based on catchment precipitation and outflow, showed an increasing trend for the observed time period.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202104.0585.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: remote sensing rainfall; extreme precipitation indices; gridded rainfall products; monsoon rainfall
Online: 21 April 2021 (15:39:34 CEST)
This work focuses on the analysis of the performance of satellite-based precipitation products for monitoring extreme rainfall events. Five precipitation products are inter-compared and evaluated in capturing indices of extreme rainfall events during 1998-2019 considering four indices of extreme rainfall. Satellite products show a variable performance, which in general indicates that the occurrence and amount of rainfall of extreme events can be both underestimated or overestimated by the datasets in a systematic way throughout the country. Also, products that consider the use of ground truth data have the best performance.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0028.v1
Subject: Chemistry And Materials Science, Metals, Alloys And Metallurgy Keywords: duplex stainless steels; isothermal heat treatment; secondary phases precipitation; TTP curves
Online: 3 July 2020 (09:00:28 CEST)
Duplex and Super Duplex Stainless Steels are very prone to secondary phases formation related to ferrite decomposition at high temperatures. In the present paper the results on secondary phase precipitation in a 2510 Duplex Stainless Steel, heat treated in the temperature range 850-1050 °C for 3-30 minutes are presented. The precipitation starts at grain boundaries with a consistent ferrite transformation for very short times. The noses of the TTP curves are at 1000 °C for σ-phase and at 900 °C for χ-phase, respectively. The precipitation sequence involves a partial transformation of χ into σ, as previously evidenced in 2205 and 2507 grades. Furthermore, the experimental data were compared to the results of Thermo-Calc calculations.
Subject: Engineering, Industrial And Manufacturing Engineering Keywords: non-aqueous electrolysis; TiN-MCx; precipitation; bearings; high carbon chromium bearing steel
Online: 28 May 2019 (11:06:35 CEST)
Nitride and carbide are the second phases which play an important role in the performance of bearing steel, and their precipitation behavior is complicated. In this study, TiN-MCx precipitations in GCr15 bearing steels were obtained by non-aqueous electrolysis, and their precipitation mechanisms were studied. TiN is the effective heterogeneous nucleation site for Fe7C3 and Fe3C, therefore, MCx can precipitate on the surface of TiN easily, its chemistry component consists of M3C and M7C3 (M = Fe, Cr, Mn) and Cr3C2. TiN-MCx with high TiN volume fraction, TiN forms in early stage of solidification, and MCx precipitates on TiN surface after TiN engulfed by the solidification advancing front. TiN-MCx with low TiN volume fraction, TiN and MCx form in late stage of solidification, TiN can not grow sufficiently and is covered by a large number of precipitated MCx particles.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201805.0150.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Remote Sensing Keywords: Quantitative Precipitation Estimates; Validation; PERSIANN-CCS; meteorological radar; Satellite Rainfall Estimates
Online: 9 May 2018 (15:37:29 CEST)
QPEs (Quantitative Precipitation Estimates) obtained from remote sensing or ground-based radars could complement or even be an alternative to rain gauge readings. However, to be used in operational applications, a validation process has to be carried out, usually by comparing their estimates with those of a rain gauges network. In this paper, the accuracy of two QPEs are evaluated for three extreme precipitation events in the last decade in the southeast of the Iberian Peninsula. The first QPE is PERSIANN-CCS, a satellite-based QPE. The second is a meteorological radar with Doppler capabilities that works in the C band. Pixel-to-point comparisons are made between the values offered by the QPEs and those obtained by two networks of rain gauges. The results obtained indicate that both QPEs were well below the rain gauge values, especially in extreme rainfall time slots. There seems to be a weak linear association between the value of the discrepancies and the precipitation value of the QPEs. It does not seem that radar is more accurate than PERSIANN-CCS, despite its larger spatial resolution and its commonly higher effectiveness. The main conclusion is that neither PERSIANN-CCS nor radar, without empirical calibration, are acceptable QPEs for the real-time monitoring of meteorological extremes in the southeast of the Iberian Peninsula.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201804.0122.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Geography, Planning And Development Keywords: the Zuli River Basin; precipitation; runoff; sediment discharge; soil conservation measure
Online: 10 April 2018 (09:31:07 CEST)
Precipitation and human activities are two essential forcing dynamics that influence hydrological processes. To investigate those impacts, the Zuli River Basin (ZRB, a typical tributary basin of the Yellow River in China) was chosen to identify the impact of precipitation and human activities on runoff and sediment discharge. A double mass curve (DMC) analysis and the test methods, including accumulated variance analysis, sequential cluster, Lee-Heghnian, and moving t-test methods was utilized to determine the abrupt change point based on data from 1956 to 2015. Correlation formulas and multiple regression methods were used to calculate the runoff and sediment discharge reduction effects of soil conservation measures and to estimate the contribution rate of precipitation and soil conservation measures to runoff and sediment discharge. Our results show that the runoff reduction effect of soil conservation measures (45%) is greater than the sediment discharge reduction effect (32%). Soil conservation measures were the main factor controlling the 74.5% and 75.0% decrease in runoff and sediment discharge, respectively. Additionally, the contribution rate of vegetation measures was higher than that of engineering measures. This study provides scientific strategies for water resource management and soil conservation planning at catchment scale to face future hydrological variability.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201801.0172.v1
Subject: Chemistry And Materials Science, Biomaterials Keywords: amyloids; Gad m 1, EF-hand motif, calcium carbonate precipitation, calcite
Online: 18 January 2018 (15:13:24 CET)
Acid proteins capable of nucleating Ca2+ and displaying aggregation capacity play key roles in the formation of calcium carbonate biominerals. EF-hands are among the largest Ca2+-binding motif in proteins. Gad m 1, an Atlantic cod β-parvalbumin isoform, is a monomeric EF-hand protein that acts as a Ca2+ buffer in fish muscle and is able to form amyloids under acidic conditions. Since nucleating Ca2+ protein have a propensity to form extended β-strand structures, we wondered whether amyloid assemblies of a protein containing refolded EF-hand motifs were able to influence the in vitro calcium carbonate crystallization. Here we have used the Gad m 1 chain as model to generate monomeric and amyloid assemblies and analyze their effect on in vitro calcite formation. We found that only amyloid assemblies alter calcite morphology.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201703.0043.v2
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Geochemistry And Petrology Keywords: biomineralization; halophilic bacteria; precipitation; carbonate minerals; Mg/Ca ratios; nucleation sites
Online: 26 April 2017 (12:15:58 CEST)
The mechanism underlying microbiologically induced carbonate precipitation have not been thoroughly characterized, although numerous scholars and experts have specifically investigated questions regarding minerals induced by bacteria. The study of the precipitation of carbonate minerals induced by halophilic bacteria has aroused wide concern. The present study aimed to investigate the characterization and process of biomineralization in high salt systems by a halophilic bacterium, Chromohalobacter israelensis strain LD532 (GenBank: KX766026), which was isolated from the Yinjiashan Saltern in China. Carbonate minerals induced by LD532 were investigated in several sets of comparative experiments that employed magnesium sulfate and magnesium chloride as Mg resources. Magnesium calcite and aragonite were induced by LD532 bacteria, whereas these minerals did not appear in the control group. The mineral phases, micromorphologies, and crystal structures were analysed using X-ray powder diffraction, scanning electron microscopy, and energy dispersive X-ray detection. The carbonic anhydrase and urease secreted by strain LD532 through metabolism increased the pH value of the liquid medium and promoted the process of carbonate precipitation. Further study using high resolution transmission electron microscopy, energy dispersive X-ray detection and analysis of ultrathin slices showed that the nucleation sites of carbonate minerals were located on extracellular polymeric substances and the membranes of intracellular vesicles of LD532 bacteria, which provided favourable conditions for the growth of carbonate mineral crystals. The morphologies and compositions of minerals formed in solutions of MgSO4 and MgCl2 display significant differences, indicating that different sources of Mg2+ may also affect the physiological and biochemical activities of microorganisms and thus mineral deposition. This study will be of some interest for the interpretation of carbonate biomineralization in natural salt environments and has some value as a reference in understanding sedimentary carbonates in ancient marine environments, such as tidal flats.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201608.0200.v1
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: climate change; GCMs’; RCPs’; downscaling; temperature; precipitation; extreme events; SWAT; discharge
Online: 24 August 2016 (10:16:40 CEST)
Assessment of extreme events and climate change on reservoir inflow is important for water and power stressed countries. Projected climate is subject to uncertainties related to climate change scenarios and Global Circulation Models (GCMs’). Extreme climatic events will increase with the rise in temperature as mentioned in the AR5 of the IPCC. This paper discusses the consequences of climate change that include extreme events on discharge. Historical climatic and gauging data were collected from different stations within a watershed. The observed flow data was used for calibration and validation of SWAT model. Downscaling was performed on future GCMs’ temperature and precipitation data, and plausible extreme events were generated. Corrected climatic data was applied to project the influence of climate change. Results showed a large uncertainty in discharge using different GCMs’ and different emissions scenarios. The annual tendency of the GCMs’ is bi-vocal: six GCMs’ projected a rise in annual flow, while one GCM projected a decrease in flow. The change in average seasonal flow is more as compared to annual variations. Changes in winter and spring discharge are mostly positive, even with the decrease in precipitation. The changes in flows are generally negative for summer and autumn due to early snowmelt from an increase in temperature. The change in average seasonal flows under RCPs’ 4.5 and 8.5 are projected to vary from -29.1 to 130.7% and -49.4 to 171%, respectively. In the medium range (RCP 4.5) impact scenario, the uncertainty range of average runoff is relatively low. While in the high range (RCP 8.5) impact scenario, this range is significantly larger. RCP 8.5 covered a wide range of uncertainties, while RCP 4.5 covered a short range of possibilities. These outcomes suggest that it is important to consider the influence of climate change on water resources to frame appropriate guidelines for planning and management.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202312.0226.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Congo Basin; Precipitation Changes; Dynamic and Thermodynamic contributions; RCM’s Formulation; RCA4; RCP8.5
Online: 4 December 2023 (17:30:13 CET)
Addressing the impacts of climate change requires, first of all, understanding the mechanisms driving changes, especially at regional scale. In particular, policymakers and other stakeholders need physically robust climate change information to drive societal responses to a changing climate. In this study, we analyse the late 21st century precipitation projections (2071-2100) over the Congo Basin under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, from the Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model (RCM) RCA4. In particular, we examine the impact of the RCM formulation (reduction of turbulent mixing) on future projections, by comparing the results of the modified version (RCA4-v4) with those of the standard version (RCA4-v1) used in CORDEX (Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment). The two RCM versions are driven by two global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Results show that seasonal precipitation is largely affected by modifications in the atmospheric column moisture convergence or divergence, in turn, associated with dynamic and thermodynamic effects. Projected decreased precipitation in the dry seasons is associated with an increased moisture divergence, driven by dynamic effects (changes in circulation). Precipitation is projected to overall increase in the wet seasons, related to both dynamic and thermodynamic effects, but with larger thermodynamic contribution (changes in specific humidity). By comparing the two model versions, we found that the formulation strongly influences precipitation projections as well as the boundary conditions (driving GCM). This result could be very informative in view to ensure models fitness for the purpose of future projections for decision-makers.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202311.0645.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Geography Keywords: SWAT; snow water equivalent; global precipitation products; multi-variable calibration; remote sensing
Online: 9 November 2023 (13:34:15 CET)
Seasonal snowpacks, characterized by their snow water equivalent (SWE), play a major role in the hydrological cycle, snow melt contributions to floods and the subsequent availability of water resources downstream. Accurately estimating SWE and understanding its spatial and temporal variations presents a considerable challenge, particularly within mountainous regions characterized by complex terrain and limited observational data. Seeking to enhance the performance of the widely used Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), we report a new approach characterising snowpack behaviour incorporating both modelled and remotely sensed derived SWE calibration data. We focus on the Chenab River Basin (CRB) a headwater catchment of the Indus Basin, globally significant in terms of human inhabitants and intensifying flood risk due to climate change. We conducted a thorough assessment of five satellite-derived and reanalysis-based precipitation datasets: ERA5-Land, CMORPH, TRMM, APHRODITE, and CPC UPP. This reveals significant levels of uncertainty in global precipitation products when compared to reference data from observed stations as well as in the resulting simulated streamflow from the SWAT model. Subsequently, we expanded the scope of the SWAT model to encompass the spatial and temporal simulation of SWE. This was achieved by incorporating information from remotely sensed and modelled SWE products, manually adjusting snow parameters in R-SWAT for both the main basin and at sub-basin scales. Integrating SWE from reference snow products into the calibration process, alongside streamflow data, substantially enhanced modelling accuracy to simulate SWE compared to the conventional auto-calibration and single-variable approaches reliant solely on streamflow data. This approach results in considerable improvement in SWE predictions and to some extent in streamflow simulation in catchments dominated by snow. This research highlights the potential of remote sensing and modelled SWE parameterisation in the absence of in-situ snowpack data in high-altitude environments. An improved understanding of SWE behaviour is vital for predicting hydrological responses spanning hazards to water resources in the populous downstream regions of the Indus Basin, especially in the face of climate change.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.1637.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Water Science And Technology Keywords: Streamflow Data Assimilation; Flood forecasting; Tropical Andes; Satellite Precipitation Products; GR4H model
Online: 25 September 2023 (09:00:46 CEST)
Flood modeling and forecasting are key to managing and preparing for extreme flood events. Hydrological flood forecasting aims to predict the system response to different input changes with minimum uncertainties. In that sense, streamflow Data Assimilation (DA) seeks to combine errors between hydrological model and water discharge observations through the update of model states. This paper aims to assess a sub-daily flood forecast system in a basin of the Peruvian Tropical Andes using two sequential data assimilation algorithms called the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and the Particle Filter (PF). The study was conducted in the Vilcanota River basin during the rainiest months in 2022 to assess recent potential river floods. This basin is in the southern Peruvian Andes and was selected because it is continually affected by river floods such as occurred in 2010. For this purpose, the lumped GR4H rainfall-runoff model was run forward with 100 ensemble members using two different Satellite Precipitation sources (IMERG-E' and GSMaP-NRT'). Also, four DA experiments (IMERG-E'+EnKF, IMERG-E'+PF, GSMaP-NRT'+EnKF, and GSMaP-NRT'+PF) were conducted by assimilating real-time hourly discharges at the Pisac stream gauge station to examine the improvement of forecast accuracy for lead times of 1—24 hours. Results display good forecast performances during the first 10 hours, especially for the GSMaP'+EnKF scheme. Finally, this work benchmarks the application of streamflow DA in and Andean basin of Peru with sparse data availability and will support the development of more accurate climate services in Peru through hydrologic ensemble predictions.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202307.1959.v1
Subject: Engineering, Electrical And Electronic Engineering Keywords: Extreme precipitation; load curtailment; power supply security; risk assessment; stochastic power flow
Online: 28 July 2023 (08:45:12 CEST)
To quantitatively estimate the risk of power system operation under extreme rainfall, a multi-scenario stochastic risk assessment method is proposed. First, a scenario generation scheme considering waterlogged faults of power facilities is constructed based on the storm water management model (SWMM) and the extreme learning machine method. These scenarios will be merged to several typical scenario sets for further processing. The outage of power facilities will induce power flow transfer which may consequently lead to transmission lines’ thermal limit violation. Semi-invariant and Gram-Charlier level expansion methods are adopted to analytically depict the probability density function and cumulative probability function of each line’s power flow. The optimal solution is performed by a particle swarm algorithm to obtain proper load curtailment at each bus, and consequently the violation probability of line thermal violations can be controlled within an allowable range. The volume of load curtailment as well as their importance are considered to quantitatively access the risk of power supply security under extreme precipitation scenarios. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified in case studies based on the IEEE 24-bus system.
Subject: Chemistry And Materials Science, Biomaterials Keywords: metallic nanoparticle-polymer hybrids; seeded precipitation polymerization; core-shell nanomaterials; plasmonic nanomaterials
Online: 13 January 2021 (11:09:46 CET)
The implementation of gold-hydrogel core-shell nanomaterials in novel light-driven technologies requires the development of well-controlled and scalable synthesis protocols with precisely tunable properties. Herein, new insights are presented concerning the importance of using the concentration of gold cores as a control parameter in the seeded precipitation polymerization process to modulate – regardless of core size – relevant fabrication parameters such as encapsulation yield, particle size and shrinkage capacity. Controlling the number of nucleation points results in the facile tuning of the encapsulation process, with yields reaching 99% of gold cores even when using different core sizes at a given particle concentration. This demonstration is extended to the encapsulation of bimodal gold core mixtures with equally precise control on the encapsulation yield, suggesting that this principle could be extended to encapsulating cores composed of other materials. These findings could have significant impact on the development of stimuli-responsive smart materials.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0433.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Satellite precipitation; TRMM and GPM; Correction factor; S.P.I.; Different climates; rainfall precision
Online: 17 December 2020 (12:07:27 CET)
Abstract: The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and then Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) are the most important and widely used data sources in the forecasting of drought, flood, and water resources management. However, since this sensor’s data is primarily used for tropical regions, it is necessary to evaluate the accuracy for optimal use of the data across varying climatic and physiographic conditions. In this study, the accuracy of the satellite data for a span of 17 years (2000-2017) for three climatic zones has been explored using synoptic ground station data. The climates include a) arid and low rainfall, b) semi-arid and low rainfall, and c) humid and high rainfall. We evaluated satellite data accuracy in drought and wet conditions based on the Standard Precipitation Index (S.P.I.) and different seasons. For available ground control stations, 13 stations were used in the humid, seven stations in a semi-arid climate, and 12 stations in the dry climate. The results show that the monthly precipitation product of GPM (IMERG product) and TRMM (TMPA/3B43 product) overestimate the rainfall. In the arid climate, the precipitation is estimated 43%, in the semi-arid environment 50%, and in the humid weather 11% more than the ground-based data on average. Therefore, to use satellite data in different climates, it is necessary to make corrections to obtain precise results. Based on 32 ground stations, the correction coefficient has a positive relationship with average precipitation and altitude and an inverse relationship with the latitude. Further in-depth investigations showed that the accuracy of satellite data in wet conditions is higher than the accuracy of normal circumstances, and the accuracy of normal conditions is more accurate than drought conditions. Besides, the accuracy of satellite data in wet or dry conditions increases with increasing time scales. The highest accuracy was obtained for a 12-month time scale and the lowest accuracy for the 3-month time scale of drought conditions in the arid climate.
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Remote Sensing Keywords: precipitation downscaling; convolutional neural networks; long short term memory networks; hydrological simulation
Online: 2 April 2019 (12:37:11 CEST)
Precipitation downscaling is widely employed for enhancing the resolution and accuracy of precipitation products from general circulation models (GCMs). In this study, we propose a novel statistical downscaling method to foster GCMs’ precipitation prediction resolution and accuracy for monsoon region. We develop a deep neural network composed of convolution and Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) recurrent module to estimate precipitation based on well-resolved atmospheric dynamical fields. The proposed model is compared against GCM precipitation product and classical downscaling methods in the Xiangjiang River Basin in South China. Results show considerable improvement compared to the ECMWF-Interim reanalysis precipitation. Also, the model outperforms benchmark downscaling approaches, including 1) quantile mapping, 2) support vector machine, and 3) convolutional neural network. To test the robustness of the model and its applicability in practical forecast, we apply the trained network for precipitation prediction forced by retrospective forecasts from ECMWF model. Compared to ECMWF precipitation forecast, our model makes better use of the resolved dynamical field for more accurate precipitation prediction at lead time from 1 day up to 2 weeks. This superiority decreases along forecast lead time, as GCM’s skill in predicting atmospheric dynamics being diminished by the chaotic effect. At last, we build a distributed hydrological model and force it with different sources of precipitation inputs. Hydrological simulation forced with the neural network precipitation estimation shows significant advantage over simulation forced with the original ERA-Interim precipitation (with NSE value increases from 0.06 to 0.64), and the performance is just slightly worse than the observed precipitation forced simulation (NSE=0.82). This further proves the value of the proposed downscaling method, and suggests its potential for hydrological forecasts.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201705.0094.v1
Subject: Chemistry And Materials Science, Nanotechnology Keywords: lithium-ion batteries; anode materials; MnO; co-precipitation; T-shaped microchannel reactor
Online: 11 May 2017 (07:49:10 CEST)
Porous MnO/C microspheres have been successfully fabricated by a fast co-precipitation method in a T-shaped microchannel reactor. The structures, compositions and electrochemical performances of the obtained MnO/C microspheres are characterized by X-ray diffraction, emission scanning electron microscopy, transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM), Brunauer–Emmett–Teller analysis, charge-discharge testing, cyclic voltammograms, and electrochemical impedance spectra. Experimental results reveal that the as-prepared MnO/C, with a specific surface area of 96.66 m2·g–1 and average pore size of 24.37 nm, exhibits excellent electrochemical performance, with a discharge capacity of 655.4 mAh·g–1 after cycling 50 times at 1 C and capacities of 808.3, 743.7, 642.6, 450.1, and 803.1 mAh·g–1 at 0.2, 0.5, 1, 2, and 0.2 C, respectively. Moreover, the controlled method of using a micro-channel reactor, which can produce larger specific surface area porous MnO/C with improved cycling performance by shortening lithium-ion diffusion distances, can be easily applied in real production on a large-scale.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202311.0749.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: teleconnections; High Mountain Asia; modes of variability; geopotential height; temperature; precipitation; snow cover
Online: 13 November 2023 (10:52:25 CET)
Oscillations in global modes of variability (MoV) form global teleconnections that affect regional climate variability and modify the potential for severe and damaging weather conditions. Understanding the link between certain MoVs and regional climate can improve the ability to more accurately predict environmental conditions that impact human life and health. In this study, we explore the connection between different MoVs, including the Arctic Oscillation (AO), Eurasian teleconnection, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and El Niño Southern Oscillation (Nino34), with winter and summer climate in the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region, including geopotential height at 250 hPa (z250), 2-m air temperature (T2M), total precipitation (PRECTOT), and fractional snow cover area (fSCA). Relationships are explored for the same monthly period between the MoVs and the climate variables, but also using a lagged correlation analysis to investigate whether any relationship exists at different time lags. We find that T2M has a negative correlation with the Eurasian teleconnection in the Inner Tibetan Plateau and Central China in both winter and summer and a positive correlation in Western China in summer. PRECTOT has a positive correlation with all MoV in most regions in winter, especially with the IOD, and a negative correlation in summer, especially with the Eurasian teleconnection. Snow cover in winter is positively correlated with most indices throughout many regions in HMA, likely due to wintertime precipitation also being positively correlated with most indices. Generally, the AO and NAO show similar correlation patterns with all climate variables, especially in the winter, possibly due to their oscillations being so similar. Furthermore, the AO and NAO are shown to be less significant in explaining the variation in HMA climate compared to other MoVs such as the Eurasian teleconnection. Overall, our results pinpoint different time-windows and specific regions within HMA that exhibit high correlation between climate and MoVs, which might offer additional predictability of the MoVs as well as of climate and weather patterns in HMA and throughout the globe.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.0214.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Remote Sensing Keywords: precipitation satellite products; bottom up; hydrological model; daily discharge; GR4J; Peruvian pacific drainage
Online: 4 October 2023 (09:36:13 CEST)
In regions with limited precipitation information like Peru, many studies rely on precipitation data derived from satellite products (SPPs) and reanalysis products. These products provide near-real-time information and offer global spatial coverage, making them attractive for various applications. However, it is essential to consider their uncertainties when conducting hydrological simulations, especially in a key region like the Pacific drainage (Pd), where 56% of Peruvian population resides (including the capital Lima). This study evaluates the performance of three precipitation products: Reanalysis, ERA5-Land (top down approach), and two SPPs: GPM+SM2RAIN and SM2RAIN-ASCAT (bottom-up approaches). Hydrological modeling was conducted on 30 basins distributed across the Pd, which were grouped into five regions (I-V, ordered from south to north). The results showed that SM2RAIN-ASCAT performed well in regions I-III-IV, ERA5-Land in region II, and GPM+SM2RAIN in region V. The hydrological model GR4J was tested, and better efficiency criteria were obtained with SM2RAIN-ASCAT and GPM+SM2RAIN when comparing simulated versus observed streamflows. The hydrological modeling with SM2RAIN-ASCAT and GPM+SM2RAIN demonstrated satisfactory efficiency metrics (KGE > 0.75; NSE > 0.65). Additionally, ten hydrological signatures were quantified to assess the variability of simulated streamflows in each basin, with metrics such as Mean Flow (Q mean), 5th Quantile Flow (Q5), and 95th Quantile Flow (Q95) showing overall better performance. Finally, the results of this study demonstrate the reliability of using bottom-up satellite products in Pd basins.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202106.0179.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: gauge-undercatch; correction factors; global precipitation; GPCC; Legates correction factor; Fuchs correction factor;
Online: 7 June 2021 (12:59:50 CEST)
Precipitation gauges are critical for measuring precipitation rates at regional and global scales and are often used to calibrate precipitation rates estimated from other instruments such as satellites. However, precipitation measured at the gauges is affected by gauge-undercatch that is often larger for solid precipitation. In the present work, two popular gauge-undercatch correction factors are assessed: one utilizes a dynamic correction model and is used in the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Monitoring product and the other one employs a fixed climatology and is used in the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) product. How much the choice of correction factors can impact the total estimate of precipitation was quantified over land at seasonal, annual, regional, and global scales. The correction factors are also compared as a function of the environmental variables used in their development, among those are near-surface air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, elevation, and precipitation intensity. Results show that correction factors can increase the annual precipitation rate based on the gauges by ~9.5 % over the global land (excluding Antarctica), although this amount can vary from ~6.3% (in boreal summer) to more than 10% (in boreal winter), depending on the season and the method used for gauge-undercatch correction. Annual variations of correction factors can also be large, so the use of the fixed climatology correction factors requires caution. Given their magnitudes and differences, selection of appropriate correction factors can have important implications in refining the water and energy budget calculations.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0620.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Droughts; NDVI; CHIRPS; precipitation anomalies; potential evapotranspiration; self-calibrating palmer drought severity index
Online: 24 December 2020 (13:14:17 CET)
Drought severity still remains a serious concern across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) due to the destructive impact on multiple sectors of our society The interannual variability and trends in the changes of self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index based on Penman–Monteith (scPDSIPM) and Thornthwaite (scPDSITH) methods for potential evapotranspiration (PET), precipitation (P) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) anomalies, and sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly were investigated through statistical analysis of modelled and remote sensing data. It is shown that scPDSIPM and scPDSITH differed in the representation of drought characteristics over SSA. The scPDSI and remotely-sensed-based anomalies of P and NDVI showed wetting and drying trends over the period 1980-2012. The trend analysis showed increased drought events in the semi-arid and arid regions of SSA over the same period. A correlation analysis reveals a strong relationship between scPDSI variability and P, and NDVI anomalies for monsoon and pre-monsoon seasons. The correlation analysis of scPDSI variability with SST anomalies indicates significant positive and negative relationships, respectively. This study has demonstrated the applicability of multiple data sources for drought assessment and provides useful information for regional drought predictability and mitigation strategies.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.0877.v1
Subject: Engineering, Chemical Engineering Keywords: precipitation process; multiphase CFD simulation; titanium dioxide; particle size; particle distribution; thermal mixing rate
Online: 13 September 2023 (10:38:21 CEST)
The production of anatase titanium dioxide particles plays a crucial role in the sulfate process used for manufacturing white pigment. A key factor in improving the quality of white pigments is enhancing the thermal mixing process within the precipitation tank. This improvement ensures the uniform dispersion of seed particles instead of their agglomeration, leading to the formation of particles with uniform sizes. The objective of this study was to enhance three-phase CFD simulations involving the mixing process of H₂SO₄ solution, steam as a gas phase, and solid seed particles. By analyzing the trajectories of the seed particles using CFD, the optimal injection position for the seed particles within the mixing process was determined. Subsequently, lab scale test and real field test were conducted based on the insights gained from the CFD simulations. The particle size distribution of two different types of seed inlets was analyzed and compared using Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM). The findings of this study demonstrate that the developed multi-phase CFD simulation can be effectively utilized to enhance the precipitation process for the production of anatase titanium dioxide particles.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.0688.v1
Subject: Chemistry And Materials Science, Materials Science And Technology Keywords: bentonite sorbent; sorption of nickel (II) cations; specific surface area; polyhydroxocation; "co-precipitation" method
Online: 12 September 2023 (03:06:31 CEST)
A comparative study of the physicochemical properties of natural bentonite clays of Pogodayevо (Republic of Kazakhstan, mod.1) and Dash-Salakhli (Republic of Azerbaijan, mod.2) deposits and modification of the bentonite clay with polyhydroxocations of iron (III) and aluminium (III). It-wasestablished that the modification of natural bentonitesusing polyhydroxocations of iron (III) and aluminium(III) by the method of "co-precipitation" leads to a change in their chemical composition, structural and sorption properties. The results showed that hydroxy-aluminum cations ([Al3O4(OH)24(H2O)12]7+) and poly-hydroxyl-Fe or polyoxo-Fe were intercalated into clay layers, which led to an increase in the values of d001 and specific surface areas compared to those of the original bentonite, from 37 to 120 for the Pogodaevo bentonite and from 51 to 172 respectively for bentonite from the Dash-Salakhli deposit. It is shown that modified sorbents based on natural bentonite are finely porous objects with a predominance of pores of 1.5−6.0 nm in size. As a result, there is a significant increase in the specific surface area of sorbents. Modification of bentonite with polyhydroxocations of iron (III) and aluminium (III) by the "co-precipitation" method also leads to an increase in the sorption capacity of the sorbents obtained with respect to nickel (II) cations. Modified bentonites were used for the adsorption of Ni (II) ions from the model solution. Ni (II) was absorbed in a neutral pH solution. The study of equilibrium adsorption showed that the data are in good agreement with the Langmuir isotherm model. The maximum adsorption capacity of the Ni (II) monolayer obtained from the Langmuir equation was 25.0 mg/g (mod. 1_Al_5-c), 18.2 mg/g (mod. 2_Al_5-c) for Al-bentonite and 16.7 mg/g (mod. 1_Fe_5-c), 10.1 (mod. 2_Fe_5-c) for Fe-bentonite. The kinetics of adsorption is considered. The high content of Al-OH anion exchange centresin them determines the higher sorption activity of Al-modified bentonites.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.1074.v1
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: biomineralization; microbial‑induced calcium carbonate precipitation; reducing slag; stabilization; free calcium oxide; calcium carbonate
Online: 15 August 2023 (08:44:51 CEST)
Most of the current methods for stabilizing electric arc furnace (EAF) slag are time-consuming and cannot be completely stabilized. In view of this, this study aimed to apply microbial‑induced calcium carbonate precipitation (MICP) technology in the stabilization of EAF reducing slag, and this was to be achieved by using the reaction between carbonate ions and free calcium oxide (f-CaO) in reducing slag to form a more stable calcium carbonate to achieve the purpose of stabilization. The test results showed that, when the EAF reducing slag aggregates (ERSAs) were immersed in Bacillus pasteurii bacteria solution or water, the f-CaO contained in it would react such that stabilization was achieved. The titration test results showed that the f-CaO content of the ERSAs immersed in the bacterial solution and water decreased. The expansion test results of the ERSAs that were subjected to hydration showed that the seven-day expansion of ERSAs after biomineralization could meet the Taiwan regulation requirement of a less than 0.5% expansion rate. The thermogravimetric analysis showed that both the experimental group and the control group might contain calcium carbonate compounds. The results of the X-ray diffraction analysis showed that the CaCO3 content in the ERSAs that were immersed in the bacterial solution was significantly higher than those that were immersed in water. Moreover, the compressive strength test results of concrete prepared with ERSAs showed that the compressive strength of the control group concrete began to decline after 28 days. In contrast, the experimental group concrete had a good stabilization effect, and there was no decline in compressive strength until the age of 180 days. At the age of 240 days, the surface cracks of the experimental group were particularly small, while the surface of the control group showed obvious cracks. These results confirmed that a mineralization reaction with B. pasteurii bacteria could be used as a stabilization technology for ERSAs.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202212.0292.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: statistical methods; flexible treatments; the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River; precipitation forecast
Online: 16 December 2022 (03:05:45 CET)
The multiple regression method is still an important tool for establishing precipitation forecast models with a lead time of one season. This study developed a flexible statistical forecast model for July precipitation over the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLYR) based on the prophase winter sea surface temperature (SST). According to the characteristics of observed samples and related theoretical knowledge, some special treatments (i.e., more flexible and better–targeted methods) were introduced in the forecast model. These special treatments include a flexible MLYR domain definition, the extraction of indicative signals from the SST field, artificial samples, and the amplification of abnormal precipitation. Rolling forecast experiments show that the linear correlation between prediction and observation is around 0.5, more than half of the abnormal precipitation years can be successfully predicted, and there is no contradictory prediction of the abnormal years. These results indicate that the flexible statistical forecast model is valuable in real-life applications. Furthermore, sensitivity experiments show that forecast skills without these special treatments are obviously decreased. This suggests that forecast models can benefit from using statistical methods in a more flexible and better-targeted way.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202111.0405.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: Authigenic varves; Autumn precipitation; Climate warming; Little Ice Age; Transfer function model; Water resources
Online: 22 November 2021 (14:21:49 CET)
The Mediterranean is one of the regions of the world where human-induced climate warming is expected to have large impacts on water and environmental resources. To predict shifts in the current climate system, more regional climate records, including seasonal-to-century scale variability spanning longer than the instrumental periods, are needed. To help fill this gap, we provide a reconstruction of autumn precipitation variations for the Central Pyrenees range since 1500 Common Era (CE) using the varved sediments of Lake Montcortès. To assess the suitability of the calcite sublayer width of the sediments of this lake as a proxy for precipitation anomalies, we performed an analysis and smoothing of the temporal structure of the width series, calibration of the new series with the available instrumental climate records, calculation of a transfer function and testing and comparison of the reconstructed series against available empirical data.The prediction model was statistically robust and showed that the climatic signal was captured in the calcite sublayers. The reconstruction provides the first estimations of regional autumn precipitation shifts in the Central Pyrenees at annual resolution, since 1500 CE. Pronounced interdecadal shifts in precipitation were noticeable; no increasing nor decreasing linear trends or periods of extreme precipitation events were identified. The reconstructed precipitation anomalies suggest a decrease in rainfall during the coldest phase within the coldest period of the Little Ice Age and also during the 20th century, probably associated to current Global Warming. Correlations between autumn precipitation and the North Atlantic Oscillation, Western Mediterranean Oscillation and Southern Oscillation indices were weak to moderate. A potential relationship with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation pattern is suggested. The reconstructed autumn precipitation trends are coherent with other palaeohydrological reconstructions in similar Mediterranean settings, and consistent at a regional level.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202106.0141.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: WRF model; 3D-Var data assimilation; radar data; short-range prediction; heavy precipitation event
Online: 4 June 2021 (12:54:12 CEST)
During the night between 9 and 10 September 2017, multiple flash floods associated to a heavy-precipitation event affected the town of Livorno, located in Tuscany, Italy. Accumulated precipitation exceeding 200 mm in two hours, associated with a return period higher than 200 years, caused all the largest streams of the Livorno municipality to flood several areas of the town. We used the limited-area Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, in a convection-permitting setup, to reconstruct the extreme event leading to the flash floods. We evaluated possible forecasting improvements emerging from the assimilation of local ground stations and X- and S-band radar data into the WRF, using the configuration operational at the meteorological center of Tuscany region (LaMMA) at the time of the event. Simulations were verified against weather station observations, through an innovative method aimed at disentangling the positioning and intensity errors of precipitation forecasts. By providing more accurate descriptions of the low-level flow and a better assessment of the atmospheric water vapour, the results demonstrate that assimilating radar data improved the quantitative precipitation forecasts.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202104.0722.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: extreme precipitation; Mediterranean region; Pyrenees; return period; teleconnection indices; weather type.; Backward trajectory; IVT
Online: 27 April 2021 (13:00:21 CEST)
Mountain systems within the Mediterranean region, e.g. the Pyrenees, are very sensitive to climate change. In the present study, we quantified the magnitude of extreme precipitation events and the number of days with torrential precipitation (daily precipitation ≥ 100 mm) in all the rain gauges available in the Pyrenees for the 1981-2015 period, analyzing the contribution of the synoptic scale in this type of events. The easternmost (under the Mediterranean influence) and north-westernmost (under Atlantic influence) areas of the Pyrenees registered the highest number of torrential events. The heaviest events are expected in the eastern part, i.e. 400 mm day-1 for a return period of 200 years. Northerly advections over the Iberian Peninsula, which present a low zonal index, i.e. im-plying a stronger meridional component, give rise to torrential events over the western Pyrenees; and easterly advections favour extreme precipitation over the eastern Pyrenees. The air mass travels a long way, from the east coast of North America, bringing heavy rainfall to the western Pyrenees. In the case of the torrential events over the eastern Pyrenees, the air mass causing the events in these areas is very short and originates in the Mediterranean Basin. The NAO index has no influence upon the occurrence of torrential events in the Pyrenees, but these events are closely related to certain Mediterranean teleconnections such as the WeMO
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202011.0211.v1
Subject: Engineering, Automotive Engineering Keywords: Climate Change; Occupational Accidents; Weather Circumstances; Heat Stress; Precipitation; Accident Mortality; time-series analyses
Online: 5 November 2020 (12:26:54 CET)
In the steel industries, workers are exposed to heat and ambient thermal stresses on a daily basis, leading to discomfort and limited performance. In this study, the main purpose is to investigate the effect of climate heat stress on the rate of accidents in the workplace for workers for 5 consecutive years. The data of this study were received without any sampling through the HSE Center for Steel Industry and meteorological data from 2015 to 2019 from Isfahan Meteorological station. The daily number of casualties among workers in the steel industry during 2015-2019 by adjusting seasonal patterns, months, effects of the day of the week and other meteorological factors on the average daily temperature using the studied model has a decreasing effect. Eviews software (version 8) was used to model and investigate the relationship between events and meteorological variables. The mean temperature was at least 40.2-2 and at most 70.34 ° C, respectively. In the time-series study for the main model, the number of accidents shows a direct relationship with the average temperature and wind speed. Climatic indices of humidity and rainfall have the least impact on accidents compared to temperature and wind speed. A strong correlation was shown between the increase in average ambient temperature and the rate of accidents over the past 5 years. Given the fundamental differences in studies of environmental exposure and wind speed over heat stress, further analysis in workers should be considered.