In this paper the authors present a method which facilitates computationally efficient parameter estimation of dynamical systems from a continuously growing set of measurement data. It is shown that the proposed method, which utilises Sequential Monte Carlo samplers, is guaranteed to be fully parallelisable (in contrast to Markov chain Monte Carlo methods) and can be applied to a wide variety of scenarios within structural dynamics. Its ability to allow convergence of one's parameter estimates, as more data is analysed, sets it apart from other sequential methods (such as the particle filter).

Physical-law based models are widely utilized in the aerospace industry. One such use is to provide flight dynamics models for use in flight simulators. For human-in-the-loop use, such simulators must run in real-time. Due to the complex physics of rotorcraft flight, to meet this real-time requirement, simplifications to the underlying physics sometimes have to be applied to the model, leading to model response errors in the predictions compared to the real vehicle. This study investigated whether a machine-learning technique could be employed to provide rotorcraft dynamic response predictions, with the ultimate aim of this model taking over when the physics-based model's accuracy degrades. In the current work, a machine-learning technique was employed to train a model to predict the dynamic response of a rotorcraft. Machine learning was facilitated using a Gaussian Process (GP) non-linear autoregressive model, which predicted the on-axis pitch rate, roll rate, yaw rate and heave responses of a Bo105 rotorcraft. A variational sparse GP model was then developed to reduce the computational cost of implementing the approach on large data sets. It was found that both of the GP models were able to provide accurate on-axis response predictions, particularly when the input contained all four control inceptors and one lagged on-axis response term. The predictions made showed improvement compared to a corresponding physics-based model. The reduction of training data to one-third (rotational axes) or one-half (heave axis) resulted in only minor degradation of the GP model predictions.

Binder jet printed components typically have low overall density in the green state and high shrinkage and deformation after heat treatment. It has previously been demonstrated that, by including nanoparticles of the same material in the binder, these properties can be improved as the nanoparticles can fill the interstices and pore throats between the bed particles. The beneficial effects from using these additive binder particles can be improved by maximising the binder particle size, enabling the space within the powder bed to be filled with a higher packing efficiency. The selection of maximum particle size for a binder requires detailed knowledge of the pores and pore throats between the powder bed particles. In this paper, a raindrop model is developed to determine the critical radius at which binder particles can pass between pores and penetrate the bed. The model is validated against helium pycnometry measurements and binder particle drop tests. It is found that the critical radius can be predicted, with acceptable accuracy, using a linear function of the mean and standard deviation of the particle radii. Percolation theory concepts have been employed in order to generalise the results for powder beds that have different mean particle sizes and size distributions. The results of this work can be employed to inform the selection of particle sizes required for binder formulations, to optimise density and reduce shrinkage in printed binder jet components.

The creation of computer models is often driven by the need to make predictions in regions where there is no data (i.e. extrapolations). This makes validation challenging as it is difficult to ensure that a model will be suitable when it is applied in a region where there are no observations of the system of interest. The current paper proposes a method that can reveal flaws in a model which may be difficult to identify using traditional approaches for model calibration and validation. The method specifically targets the situation where one is attempting to model a dynamical system that is believed to possess time-invariant calibration parameters. The proposed approach allows these parameters to vary with time, even though it is believed that they are time-invariant. The of such an analysis is to identify key discrepancies - indications that a model has inherent flaws and, as a result, should not be used to influence decisions in regions where there is no data. The proposed method isn't necessarily a predictor of extrapolation performance, rather, it is a stringent test that, the authors believe, should be applied before extrapolation is attempted. The approach could therefore form a useful part of wider validation frameworks in the future.

This study evaluates whether a combination of photodiode sensor measurements, taken during laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF) builds, can be used to predict the resulting build quality via a purely data-based approach. We analyse the relationship between build density and features that are extracted from sensor data collected from three different photodiodes. The study uses a Singular Value Decomposition to extract lower-dimensional features from photodiode measurements, which are then fed into machine learning algorithms. Several unsupervised learning methods are then employed to classify low density (< 99% part density) and high density (≥ 99% part density) specimens. Subsequently, a supervised learning method (Gaussian Process regression) is used to directly predict build density. Using the unsupervised clustering approaches, applied to features extracted from both photodiode sensor data as well as observations relating to the energy transferred to the material, build density was predicted with up to 93.54% accuracy. With regard to the supervised regression approach, a Gaussian Process algorithm was capable of predicting the build density with a RMS error of 3.65%. The study shows, therefore, that there is potential for machine learning algorithms to predict indicators of L-PBF build quality from photodiode build-measurements. Moreover, the work herein describes approaches that are predominantly probabilistic, thus facilitating uncertainty quantification in machine-learnt predictions of L-PBF build quality.