Any effort to combat corruption can benefit from an examination of past and projected worldwide trends. In this paper, we forecast the level of corruption in countries by integrating an artificial neural network modeling and time series analysis. The data were obtained from 113 countries from 2007 to 2017. The study is carried out at two levels: (a) global level where all countries are considered as a monolithic group; and (b) cluster level, where countries are placed into groups based on their development-related attributes. For each cluster, we use the findings from our previous study on the cluster analysis of global corruption using machine learning methods that identified the four most influential corruption factors, and we use those as independent variables. Then, using the identified influential factors, we forecast the level of corruption in each cluster using a nonlinear autoregressive recurrent neural network with exogenous inputs (NARX), an artificial neural network technique. The NARX models were developed for each cluster, with the objective function in terms of the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI). For each model, the optimal neural network is determined by finetuning the hyperparameters. The analysis was repeated for all countries as a single group. The accuracy of the models is assessed by comparing the mean square errors (MSE) of the time series models. The results suggest that the NARX artificial neural network technique yields reliable future values of CPI globally or for each cluster of countries. This can assist policymakers and organizations in assessing the expected efficacies of their current or future corruption control policies from a global perspective as well as for groups of countries.

Accurate estimates of daily rainfall are essential for understanding and modeling the physical processes involved in the interaction between the land surface and the atmosphere. In this study, daily satellite soil moisture observations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) generated by implementing the standard NASA- algorithm are employed for estimating rainfall, firstly, through the use of recently developed approach, SM2RAIN (Brocca et al., 2013) and, secondly, the nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs (NARX) neural modelling at five climate stations in the Karkheh river basin (KRB), located in southwest Iran. In the SM2RAIN method, the period 1 January 2003 to 31 December 2005 is used for the calibration of algorithm and the remaining 9 months from 1 January 2006 to 30 September 2006 is used for the validation of the rainfall estimates. In the NARX model, the full study period is split into a training (1 January 2003 to 31 September 2005) and a testing (1 September 2005 to 30 September 2006) stage. For the prediction of the rainfall as the desired target (output), relative soil moisture changes from AMSR-E and measured air temperature time series are chosen as exogenous (external) inputs in NARX. The quality of the estimated rainfall data is evaluated by comparing it with observed rainfall data at the five rain gauges in terms of the correlation coefficient R, the RMSE and the statistical bias. For the SM2RAIN method, R ranges between 0.44 and 0.9 for all stations, whereas for the NARX- model the values are generally slightly lower. Moreover, the values of the bias for each station indicate that although SM2RAIN is likely to underestimate large rainfall intensities, due to the known effect of soil moisture saturation, its biases are somewhat lower than those of NARX. In conclusion, the results of the present study show that with the use of AMSR-E soil moisture products in the physically based SM2RAIN- algorithm as well as in the NARX neural network, rainfall for poorly gauged regions can be fairly predicted.

Photovoltaic(PV) power generation is highly nonlinear and stochastic. Accurate prediction of PV power generation plays a crucial role in grid connection as well as the operation and scheduling of power plants. To predict the PV power combination model, this paper suggests a method based on Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD), Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN), Nonlinear Auto-Regressive Neural Networks with Exogenous Input (NARXNN), Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) Neural Network, and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) algorithms. To attempt to reduce the non-smoothness of PV power, the weather variable features with the greatest effect on PV power are first identified by correlation analysis. Following this, the PV power modal decomposition is split and reorganized into a new feature matrix. Finally， a NARX is used to obtain preliminary PV power components and residual vector features， and the PV power is predicted by combining three models of LightGBM， LSTM, and NARX and then the final prediction results are obtained by combining the PV power prediction results using error inverse method weighted optimization. The prediction results demonstrate that the model put forth in this paper outperforms those of other models and validate the model's validity by utilizing real measurement data from Andre Agassi College in the United States.

The vehicular technology has integrated many features in the system, which enhances the safety and comfort of the user. Among these features, heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) is the only feature that maintains the set cabin air temperature (CAT). The user’s command drives the set CAT, and the thermostat provides feedback to the HVAC to maintain the set CAT. The CAT is increased by extracting the heat from the engine surface produced by the fuel combustion, whereas the CAT is reduced by the known processes of the air conditioning system (ACS). Therefore, the CAT driven by the user’s command may not be optimal, and estimating the optimal CAT is still unsolved. In this work, the user was allowed to input a range for CAT instead of a single value. Optimal HVAC criteria were defined, and the CAT was estimated by performing iterative analysis in the user-selected range satisfying the criteria. The HVAC criteria were defined based on two measurable parameters: air conditioning refrigerant fluid pressure (ACRFP) and engine surface temperature (EST) empirically defined as the vector CATOP. In this article, a NARX DL model by mapping the vehicle-level vectors (VLV) to predict the CATOP in real-time using field data obtained from a 2020 Cadillac CT5 test vehicle. Utilising the DL model, CATOP for future time steps were predicted by varying the CAT in the definite range and applying HVAC criteria. Thus, an optimal set CAT was estimated, corresponding to the optimal CATOP defined by the HVAC criteria. We performed the validation of the DL model for multiple datasets using traditional statistical techniques, namely, signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) values, first-order derivatives (FOD), and root-mean-square error (RMSE).

The ACC feature when activated augments the engine performance in real-time. This article presents a novel methodology to predict the optimal adaptive cruise control set speed profile (ACCSSP) by considering all the effecting parameters. This paper investigates engine operating conditions (EOC) criteria to develop a predictive model of ACCSSP in real-time. We developed a deep learning (DL) model using the NARX method to predict engine operating point (EOP) mapping the vehicle-level vectors (VLV). We used real-world field data obtained from Cadillac test vehicles driven by activating the ACC feature for developing the DL model. We used a realistic set of assumptions to estimate the VLV for the future time steps for the range of allowable speed values and applied them at the input of the developed DL model to generate multiple sets of EOP’s. We imposed the defined EOC criteria on these EOPs, and the top three modes of speeds satisfying all the requirements are derived for each second. Thus three eligible speed values are estimated for each second, and an additional criterion is defined to generate a unique ACCSSP for future time steps. Performance comparison between predicted and constant ACCSSPs indicates that the predictive model outperforms constant ACCSSP.