Machine learning (ML) methods has recently contributed very well in the advancement of the prediction models used for energy consumption. Such models highly improve the accuracy, robustness, and precision and the generalization ability of the conventional time series forecasting tools. This article reviews the state of the art of machine learning models used in the general application of energy consumption. Through a novel search and taxonomy the most relevant literature in the field are classified according to the ML modeling technique, energy type, perdition type, and the application area. A comprehensive review of the literature identifies the major ML methods, their application and a discussion on the evaluation of their effectiveness in energy consumption prediction. This paper further makes a conclusion on the trend and the effectiveness of the ML models. As the result, this research reports an outstanding rise in the accuracy and an ever increasing performance of the prediction technologies using the novel hybrid and ensemble prediction models.

The conventional machine learning (ML) algorithms are continuously advancing and evolving at a fast-paced by introducing the novel learning algorithms. ML models are continually improving using hybridization and ensemble techniques to empower computation, functionality, robustness, and accuracy aspects of modeling. Currently, numerous hybrid and ensemble ML models have been introduced. However, they have not been surveyed in a comprehensive manner. This paper presents the state of the art of novel ML models and their performance and application domains through a novel taxonomy.

Heavy metals and organic pollutants are ubiquitous environmental pollutants affecting the quality of soil, water and air. Over the past 5 decades, many strategies have been developed for the remediation of polluted water. Strategies involving aquatic plant use are preferable to conventional methods. In this study, an attempt was made to provide a brief review on recent progresses in research and practical applications of phytoremediation for water resources with the following objectives: (1) to discuss the toxicity of toxic chemicals pollution in water to plant, animals and human health (2) to summarise the physicochemical factors affecting removal of toxic chemicals such as heavy metals and organic contaminants in aqueous solutions by aquatic plants; (3) to summarise and compare the removal rates of heavy metals and organic contaminants in aqueous solutions by diverse aquatic plants; and (4) to summarise chemometric models for testing aquatic plant performance. More than 20 aquatic plants specie have been used extensively while duckweed (L. minor), water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes), water lettuce (P. stratiotes) are the most common. Overall, chemometrics for performance assessment reported include: Growth rate (GR), Growth rate inhibition (% Inhibition), Metal uptake (MU), translocation/transfer factor (TF), bioconcentration factor (BCF), Percent metal uptake (% MU), Removal capacity (RC) and Tolerance index (TI) while absorption rate have been studied using the sorption kinetics and isotherms models such as pseudo-first-order (PFO), pseudo-second-order (PSO), Freundlich, Langmuir and Temkin. Using modeling and interpretation of adsorption isotherms for performance assessment is particularly good and increases level of accuracy obtained from adsorption processes of contaminant on plant. Conclusion was drawn by highlighting the gap in knowledge and suggesting key future areas of research for scientists and policymakers.

Predicting electricity prices is a very important issue in modern society, because the associated decision process under uncertainty requires accurate forecasts for the economic agents involved. In this paper, we apply the decision tree extension of Random Forests to the prediction of electricity prices in Spain, but with the novelty of modeling prices jointly with demand, with the purpose of achieving greater accuracy than with univariate response Random Forests, particularly in price prediction, as well as understanding the effect of the input variables (lagged values of price and demand, current production levels of available energy sources) on the joint of the two outputs. The results are very encouraging, providing significant increase in price prediction accuracy. Also, interesting methodological challenges appear as far as the appropriate choice of the relative weights of price and demand in the joint modeling is concerned and a new procedure to provide the importance variable ranking is proposed. The partykit (package of R software) library allowing for multivariate Random Forests has been used.

Since the first case of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) detected on Jan 30, 2020, in India, the number of cases rapidly increased to 3819 cases including 106 deaths as of 5 April 2020. Taking this into account, in the present work, we are studying a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission fractional-order COVID-19 model for simulating the potential transmission with the thought of individual social response and control measures by the government. The real data available about infectious cases from $14^{th}$ March to $26^{th}$ March 2020 is analysed and accordingly various parameters of the model are estimated or fitted. The Picard successive approximation technique and Banach's fixed point theory have been used for verification of the existence and stability criteria of the model. Numerical computations are done utilizing the iterative Laplace transform method. In the end, we illustrate the obtained results graphically. The purpose of this study is to estimate the effectiveness of preventive measures, predicting future outbreaks and potential control strategies using the mathematical model.

Multiple preventive vaccines are being developed to counter the COVID-19 pandemic. The leading candidates have now been evaluated in non-human primates (NHPs) and human Phase 1 and/or Phase 2 clinical trials. Several vaccines have already advanced into Phase 3 efficacy trials, while others will do so before the end of 2020. Here, we summarize what is known of the antibody and T-cell immunogenicity of these vaccines in NHPs and humans. To the extent possible, we compare how the vaccines have performed, taking into account the use of different assays to assess immunogenicity and inconsistencies in how the resulting data are presented. We also summarize the outcome of SARS-CoV-2 challenge experiments in immunized macaques, while noting variations in the protocols used, including but not limited to the virus challenge doses.

Electricity price forecasting has become a crucial element for both private and public decision-making. This importance has been growing since the wave of deregulation and liberalization of energy sector worldwide late 1990s. Given these facts, this paper tries to come up with a precise and flexible forecasting model for the wholesale electricity price for the Italian power market on an hourly basis. We utilize artificial intelligence models such as neural networks and bagged regression trees that are rarely used to forecast electricity prices. After model calibration, our final model is bagged regression trees with exogenous variables. The selected model outperformed neural network and bagged regression with single price used in this paper, it also outperformed other statistical and non-statistical models used in other studies. We also confirm some theoretical specifications of the model. As a policy implication, this model might be used by energy traders, transmission system operators and energy regulators for an enhanced decision-making process.

Architecture is more than just buildings. Its associated production and reception pro­cesses take place through a variety of different media. Among those media, the model is of special significance: because architecture, like almost every science or art, works with models as representa­tionally or theoretically simplified images mediating between the abstract and the reality. The properties that characterise models give them a special significance in archi­tecture—both in the abstract, as well as in the concrete. The following article sketches out the history of the architectural model as a medium in a short tour d’horizon. A special focus is placed on showing the versatility of the model—for design and presentation and as an artefact, teaching resource and research medium. It transmits a specific form of knowledge which can be replaced by no other medium.

This paper models and estimates the volatility of nonfinancial, innovative and hi-tech focused stock index, the Nasdaq-100, using univariate symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models. We employ GARCH, EGARCH and GJR-GARCH using daily data over the period January 4, 2000 through March 19, 2019. We find that the volatility shocks on the index returns are quite persistent. Furthermore, our findings show that the index has leverage effect, and the impact of shocks is asymmetric, whereby the impacts of negative shocks on volatility are higher than those of positive shocks of the same magnitude.

There is need to accurately design pipelines to transport the expected increase of CO₂ captured from industrial processes after the signing of the Paris Climate Agreement in 2016. This paper reviews several aspects of CO₂ pipeline design with emphasis on pressure drop and models for the calculation of pipeline diameter. Two categories of pipeline equations were identified. The first category is independent of pipeline length and has two different equations. This category is used to specify adequate pipeline diameter for the volume of fluid transported. The optimum economic pipe diameter equation (Eq. 17) with nearly uniform resultant velocity values at different flow rates performed better than the standard velocity flow equation (Eq. 20). The second category has four different equations and is used to calculate pipeline pressure drop or pipeline distance for the installation of booster stations after specifying minimum and maximum pipeline pressures. The hydraulic equation is preferred because it gave better resultant velocity values and the closest diameter value obtained using Aspen HYSYS (V.10) simulation. The effect of impurities on the pressure behaviour and optimal pipeline diameter and pressure loss due to acceleration were ignored in the development of the models. Further work is ongoing to incorporate these effects into the models.

The purpose of this work was analysing the compaction of a cohesive material using different DEM simulators to determine the equivalent contact models and identify how some parameters of the simulations affect the compaction results (maximum force and compacts appearance) and computational costs. For that purpose, three cohesion contact models were tested (‘linear cohesion’ in EDEM; ‘SJKR’ and ‘SJKR2’ in LIGGGHTS). The influence of the particle size distribution (PSD) on the results was also investigated. Further assessments were performed on the effect of selecting different timesteps, using distinct conversion tolerances for exporting the 3D models to STL files and moving the punch with different speeds. Consequently, it was possible to determine that a timestep equal to a 10% Rayleigh timestep, a conversion tolerance of 0.01 mm and a punch speed of 0.2 m/s are adequate for simulating the compaction process using the contact models in this work. In addition, the results determined that the maximum force was influenced by the PSD because of the rearrangement of the particles. The PSD was also related to the computational cost because of the number of simulated particles and their sizes. Finally, an equivalence was found between the linear cohesion and SJKR2 contact models

In this paper, an original approach allowing the determination of the iron losses in the electromagnetic devices is presented. This new approach exploits the Loss Surface (LS) hysteresis model and the magnetic flux density waveforms resulting from a generalized nonlinear adaptive magnetic equivalent circuit (MEC) using a mesh-based formulation in two-dimensional (2-D) or quasi three-dimensional (3-D). The model coupling has been applied to a 18-slots/16-poles radial-flux interior permanent-magnet (PM) synchronous machine (PMSM) dedicated to automotive applications, mainly for electric/hybrid/fuel cell vehicles (EVs/HEVs/FCVs). The obtained results have been compared with those made retrospectively in the 2-D transient finite-element (FE) Flux. The influence of the MEC discretization on the iron loss calculation and the electromagnetic performances has been analyzed. The computation time is divided by 3/2 with an error less than 7 %.

Machine learning (ML) is a subdivision of artificial intelligence in which the machine learns from machine-readable data and information. It uses data, learns the pattern and predicts the new outcomes. Its popularity is growing because it helps to understand the trend and provides a solution that can be either a model or a product. Applications of ML algorithms have increased drastically in G.I.S. and remote sensing in recent years. It has a broad range of applications, from developing energy-based models to assessing soil liquefaction to creating a relation between air quality and mortality. Here, in this paper, we discuss the most popular supervised ML models (classification and regression) in G.I.S. and remote sensing. The motivation for writing this paper is that ML models produce higher accuracy than traditional parametric classifiers, especially for complex data with many predictor variables. This paper provides a general overview of some popular supervised non-parametric ML models that can be used in most of the G.I.S. and remote sensing-based projects. We discuss classification (Naïve Bayes (NB), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), Decision Trees (DT)) and regression models (Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Linear and Non-Linear) here. Therefore, the article can be a guide to those interested in using ML models in their G.I.S. and remote sensing-based projects

Globally, there is massive uptake and explosion of data and challenge is to address issues like scale, pace, velocity, variety, volume and complexity of the data. Considering the recent epidemic in China, modeling of COVID-19 epidemic for cumulative number of infected cases using data available in early phase was big challenge. Being COVID-19 pandemic during very short time span, it is very important to analyze the trend of these spread and infected cases. This predictive analytics can be empowered using Information, Communication and Technologies (ICT) services, tools and applications. This paper presents medical perspective of COVID-19 towards epidemiological triad and the study of state-of-the-art. The main aim this paper is to present different predictive analytics techniques available for trend analysis, different models and algorithms and their comparison. Finally, this paper concludes with prediction of COVID-19 using Prophet algorithm indicating more faster spread in short term. These predictions will be useful to government and healthcare communities to initiate appropriate measures to control this outbreak in time.

Drought is one of the major stress factors affecting growth and development of plants. In this context, drought-related losses of crop plant productivity impede sustainable agriculture all over the world. In general, plants responses to water deficit by multiple physiological and metabolic adaptations at the molecular, cellular and organism levels. To understand the underlying mechanisms of drought tolerance, adequate stress models and arrays of reliable stress markers are required. Therefore, in this review we comprehensively address currently available models of drought stress, based on culturing plants in soil, hydroponic or agar culture. These experimental setups give access to different aspects of plant response to drought, like decrease of tissue water potential, reduction of stomata conductance and photosynthesis efficiency, accumulation of low-molecular weight solutes (metabolic adjustment) and drought protective proteins. Till now, this pattern of markers was successfully extended to the methods of enzyme chemistry, molecular biology and omics techniques. Thus, conventional tests can be efficiently complemented by determination of phytohormone and reactive oxygen species (ROS) contents, activities of antioxidant enzymes, as well as comprehensive profiling of transcriptome, proteome and metabolome.

Embryonic and larval Danio rerio is increasingly used as a toxicological model to conduct rapid in vivo tests and developmental toxicity assays; the zebrafish features as high genetic homology to mammals; robust phenotypes; and its value in high-throughput genetic and chemical screening have made it a powerful tool to evaluate in vivo toxicity. New methodologies of genome editing as CRISPR/Cas9; ZFN or Talen make it a suitable model to perform studies to pair human genetic diseases as well. This review surveys recent studies; employing zebrafish as experimental model; comparing it with other in vivo and in vitro models; presenting zebrafish as a potent vertebrate tool to evaluate drug toxicity to facilitate more extensive; easy and comprehensive knowledge of new generation drugs.

“You should know the words by the company they keep!” has been one of the most famous slogans attributed to John Rubert Firth, 1957. This has ignited a whole school in linguistic research known as the British empiricist contextualism. Sixty years later, many un- or semi-supervised machine learning algorithms have been successfully designed and implemented aiming at extracting word meaning from within the context of a text corpus. These algorithms treat words, more or less, as vectors of real numbers representing frequencies of word occurrences within context and word meaning as positions of words in a high-dimensional vector space model. Word associations, in turn, are treated as calculated distances among them. With the rise of Deep Learning (DL) and other artificial neural networks based architectures, learning the positioning of words and extracting word associations as measured by their distances has further improved. In this paper, however, we revisited the main stream of algorithmic approaches and set the stage for a partly cross-disciplinary evaluation framework to judge about the nature of the extracted word associations by state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms. Our preliminary results are based on word associations extracted from the application of DL framework on a Google News text corpus, as well as on comparisons with human created word association lists such as word collocation dictionaries and psycholinguistic experiments. The results and conclusions provide some insights into the inherited limitations in interpreting the type of word associations and underpinning relations between words with inevitable consequences in other areas, such as extraction of knowledge graphs or image understanding.

Research within the field of hydrology often focuses on comparing stochastic to machine learning (ML) forecasting methods. The comparisons performed are all based on case studies, while an extensive study aiming to provide generalized results on the subject is missing. Herein, we compare 11 stochastic and 9 ML methods regarding their multi-step ahead forecasting properties by conducting 12 large-scale computational experiments based on simulations. Each of these experiments uses 2 000 time series generated by linear stationary stochastic processes. We conduct each simulation experiment twice; the first time using time series of 100 values and the second time using time series of 300 values. Additionally, we conduct a real-world experiment using 405 mean annual river discharge time series of 100 values. We quantify the performance of the methods using 18 metrics. The results indicate that stochastic and ML methods perform equally well.

Prediction of stock groups values has always been attractive and challenging for shareholders. This paper concentrates on the future prediction of stock market groups. Four groups named diversified financials, petroleum, non-metallic minerals and basic metals from Tehran stock exchange are chosen for experimental evaluations. Data are collected for the groups based on ten years of historical records. The values predictions are created for 1, 2, 5, 10, 15, 20 and 30 days in advance. The machine learning algorithms utilized for prediction of future values of stock market groups. We employed Decision Tree, Bagging, Random Forest, Adaptive Boosting (Adaboost), Gradient Boosting and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Artificial neural network (ANN), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and Long short-term memory (LSTM). Ten technical indicators are selected as the inputs into each of the prediction models. Finally, the result of predictions is presented for each technique based on three metrics. Among all algorithms used in this paper, LSTM shows more accurate results with the highest model fitting ability. Also, for tree_based models, there is often an intense competition between Adaboost, Gradient Boosting and XGBoost.

The manuscript studies the release kinetic of fluorescein from colloidal liquid crystals made up from monoglyceride and different non-ionic surfactants. The release experiments were carried out under sink conditions, and mathematical models were described as extrapolations from solutions of diffusion equation in different initial and boundary conditions imposed by pharmaceutical formulations. The diffusion equation was solved, using Laplace and Fourier transformed functions for the release kinetic from infinite reservoirs in a semi-infinite medium. Solutions represents a general square root law and can be applied for the release kinetic of fluorescein from monoglyceride colloidal liquid crystals. Akaike, Schwartz and Imbimbo criteria were used to establish the appropriate mathematical model and the hierarchy of performances of different models applied to the release experiments. The Fisher statistic test was applied to perform significance of differences among mathematical models. Differences evaluated by mathematical criteria demonstrated that small or no significant statistic differences were carried out between various applied models and colloidal formulations. Phenomenological models were preferred over to empirical and semi-empirical ones. The general square root model shows that the diffusion-controlled release of fluorescein is the mathematical models extrapolated for monoglyceride colloidal liquids, in the first part of the process.

The work proposes a backtesting analysis in comparison between the Lee-Carter and the Cairns-Blake-Dowd mortality models, employing Italian data. The mortality data come from the Italian National Statistics Institute (ISTAT) database and span the period 1975-2014, over which we computed back-projections evaluating the performances of the models in comparisons with real data. We propose three different backtest approaches, evaluating the goodness of short-run forecast versus medium-length ones. We find that both models were not able to capture the improving shock on the mortality observed for the male population on the analyzed period. Moreover, the results suggest that CBD forecast are reliable prevalently for ages above 75, and that LC forecast are basically more accurate for this data.

Neural networks models are mostly represented by oriented graphs where only the components, constitutive elements of the graph, are transcribed into mathematical xpression. Indeed, accurate knowledge of the full expression of the model is required in certain situations such as selecting among several reference models, the one that best fits the available data or comparing the explanatory and predictive performance of an established model with respect to some reference models. In this paper, we establish a formalism of the mathematical expression for multilayer perceptron neural network in a general framework, MLP-p-n-q, with p, n and q natural integers and show its restriction to cases where one has a hidden layer and multivariate outputs (MLP-p-1-q), and then a single output (MLP-p-1-1). Then, we give some specific cases of the most commonly used models. An application case is presented in the context of solving a nonlinear regression problem.

Information-theoretic measures such as the entropy, cross-entropy and the Kullback-Leibler divergence between two mixture models is a core primitive in many signal processing tasks. Since the Kullback-Leibler divergence of mixtures provably does not admit a closed-form formula, it is in practice either estimated using costly Monte-Carlo stochastic integration, approximated, or bounded using various techniques. We present a fast and generic method that builds algorithmically closed-form lower and upper bounds on the entropy, the cross-entropy and the Kullback-Leibler divergence of mixtures. We illustrate the versatile method by reporting on our experiments for approximating the Kullback-Leibler divergence between univariate exponential mixtures, Gaussian mixtures, Rayleigh mixtures, and Gamma mixtures.

Transient analysis of gas flow in pipeline was studied. Finite Element Method based on ANSYS FLOTRAN was used to account for changes in pressure, temperature and flow rate. Compressibility factor function of temperature and pressure was considered. For non-isothermal transient results, the pressure and the flowrate gave wave propagation as a result of slow transients created by demand condition at the outlet end of custody transfer. Results obtained were in agreement with the demand restrictions at the outlet end of custody transfer indicating that the predictions are accurate and reliable. The results demonstrated that the Finite Element Method gave accurate prediction of pressure, temperature and flowrate in transient gas studies. For steady state non-isothermal model, results showed that the magnitude of the average pressure drop was higher when pressure was predicted with constant compressibility factor, but the same average pressure drop was reduced when the pressure was predicted with variable compressibility factor, z. Since compressibility factor is a function of temperature and pressure, the above findings signifies that in the case when gas temperature does not stabilize, the prediction of pressure with isothermal model and constant compressibility factor will lead to significant errors.

Cronbach’s (1957) famous division of scientific psychology into two disciplines is still actual for the fields of cognition (general mechanisms) and intelligence (dimensionality of individual differences). The welcome integration of the two fields requires the construction of mechanistic models of cognition and cognitive development that explain key phenomena in individual differences research. In this paper we argue that network modeling is a promising approach to integrate the processes of cognitive development and (developing) intelligence into one unified theory. Network models are defined mathematically, describe mechanisms on the level of the individual, and are able to explain positive correlations among intelligence subtest scores - the empirical basis for the well-known g-factor - as well as more complex factorial structures. Links between network modeling, factor modeling and item response theory allow for a common metric, encompassing both discrete and continuous characteristics, for cognitive development and intelligence.

Different notions of entropy can be identified in different communities: (i) the thermodynamic sense, (ii) the information sense, (iii) the statistical sense, (iv) the disorder sense, and (v) the homogeneity sense. Especially the “disorder sense” and the “homogeneity sense” relate to and require the notion of space and time. One of the few prominent examples relating entropy to geometry and to space is the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy of a Black Hole. Although being developed for the description of a physics object—a black hole—having a mass, a momentum, a temperature, a charge etc. absolutely no information about these attributes of this object can eventually be found in the final formula. In contrast, the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy in its dimensionless form is a positive quantity only comprising geometric attributes like an area A—which is the area of the event horizon of the black hole-, a length L_P—which is the Planck length - and a factor ¼. A purely geometric approach towards this formula will be presented. The approach is based on a continuous 3D extension of the Heaviside function, with this extension drawing on the phase-field concept of diffuse interfaces. Entropy enters into the local, statistical description of contrast respectively gradient distributions in the transition region of the extended Heaviside function definition. The structure of the Bekenstein-Hawking formula eventually is derived for a geometric sphere based on mere geometric-statistic considerations.

It is a common practice to detect outliers in a financial time series in order to avoid the adverse effect of additive outliers. This paper investigated the performance of GARCH family models (sGARCH; gjrGARCH; iGARCH; TGARCH and NGARCH) in the presence of different sizes of outliers (small, medium and large) for different time series lengths (250, 500, 750, 1000, 1250 and 1500) using root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) to adjudge the models. In a simulation iteration of 1000 times in R environment using rugarch package, results revealed that for small size of outliers, irrespective of the length of time series, iGARCH dominated, for medium size of outliers, it was sGARCH and gjrGARCH that dominated irrespective of time series length, while for large size of outliers, irrespective of time series length, gjrGARCH dominated. The study further leveled that in the presence of additive outliers on time series analysis, both RMSE and MAE increased as the time series length increased.

RO membrane fouling is one of the main challenges that membrane manufactures, the scientific community and industry professionals have to deal with. The consequences of this inevitable phenomenon have a negative effect on the performance of the desalination system. Predicting fouling in RO systems is key to evaluating the long-term operating conditions and costs. Much research has been done on fouling indices, methods, techniques and prediction models to estimate the influence of fouling on the performance of RO systems. This paper offers a critical review evaluating the state of industry knowledge in the development of fouling indices and models in membrane systems for desalination in terms of use and applicability. Despite major efforts in this field, there are gaps in terms of effective methods and models for the estimation of fouling in full-scale RO desalination plants. In existing models applied to full-scale RO desalination plants, neither the spacer geometry of membranes nor the efficiency and frequency of chemical cleanings - which play an important role in the performance of this process - are considered.

Active contour models present a robust segmentation approach which make efficient use of specific information about objects in the input data rather than processing all the data. They have been widely used in many applications including image segmentation, object boundary localisation, motion tracking, shape modelling, stereo matching and object reconstruction. In this paper, we investigate the potential of active contour models in extracting roads from Mobile Laser Scanning (MLS) data. The categorisation of active contours based on their mathematical representation and implementation are discussed in detail. We discuss an integrated version in which active contour models are combined to overcome their limitations. We review various active contour based methodologies which have been developed to extract roads and other features from LiDAR and digital imaging datasets. We present a small case study in which an integrated version of active contour models is applied to automatically extract road edges from MLS dataset. An accurate extraction of left and right edges from the tested road section validates the use of active contour models. The present study provides a valuable insight on the potential of active contours for extracting roads and other infrastructures from 3D LiDAR point cloud data.

This case study assessed marketing arrangements used by small scale farmers in the Lake Basin and Lower Eastern bean corridors of Kenya to determine which markets work for rural producers and what changes are needed to produce and supply sufficient quantities for trade. Using exploratory research, data was collected through focus group discussions with six farmer groups representing a total of 1255 bean farmers and key informant interviews with extension staff. The results indicated that 94% of the farmers produced beans before identifying buyers with only 6% participating in group marketing. Though spot-market transactions with brokers and traders provided ready cash for the farmers, formal buyers were perceived to be more reliable but difficult to find and, operated stringent requirements which were a barrier to entry. A theory of change to integrate smallholders into formal markets to sustainably produce and supply sufficient volumes for trade should entail a transformation agenda at four levels of the value chain: intensification of production through pure stand models with greater use of certified high yielding varieties; stable price guarantees; a market-driven research and extension service and; an enabling political, policy and business environment in the bean value chain. Further research is needed to pilot these changes in a case control study.

This paper studies the duration patterns of unemployment spells for immigrants and the determinants of unemployment’s completion into one of a number of studied labour market states in Finland. We estimate a duration model for unemployment with competing risks of its terminating into employment, labour market training or economic inactivity. Taking into account the wide period of observation and opportunities to analyse processes of labour market integration during various periods of economic development in Finland, in combination with the individualistic character of the labour careers of immigrants, this research is beneficial owing to the many various findings concerning labour market integration of immigrants. The approach undertaken in this research has a dualistic “descriptive-dynamic” character under which integration is understood as a never-ending process, which is conditioned by a time period of long-term existence and a context of solitary action. We find that transitions out of unemployment spells have a cyclical character; after every new “cycle” in unemployment, the probability of terminating unemployment decreases further. We also find that ascriptive factors make sense in the process of job-placement of immigrants from unemployment. Therefore, the gender, education and age of immigrants, as well as the effect of the period in which first unemployment occurred, potentially predict transitions out of unemployment and further labour market integration of immigrants.

As the global human population increases, animal agriculture must adapt to provide more animal products while also addressing concerns about animal welfare, environmental sustainability, and public health. The purpose of this review is to discuss the digitalization of animal farming with Precision Livestock Farming (PLF) technologies, specifically biosensors, big data, and block chain technology. Biosensors are noninvasive or invasive sensors that monitor an animal’s health and behavior in real time, allowing farmers to monitor individual animals and integrate this data for population-level analyses. The data from the sensors is processed using big data-processing techniques such as data modelling. These technologies use algorithms to sort through large, complex data sets to provide farmers with biologically relevant and usable data. Blockchain technology allows for traceability of animal products from farm to table, a key advantage in monitoring disease outbreaks and preventing related economic losses and food-related health pandemics. With these PLF technologies, animal agriculture can become more transparent and regain consumer trust. While the digitalization of animal farming has the potential to address a number of pressing concerns, these technologies are relatively new. The implementation of PLF technologies on farms will require increased collaboration between farmers, animal scientists, and engineers to ensure that technologies can be used in realistic, on-farm conditions. These technologies will call for data models that can sort through large amounts of data while accounting for specific variables and ensuring automation, accessibility, and accuracy of data. Issues with data privacy, security, and integration will need to be addressed before there can be multi-farm databases. Lastly, the usage of blockchain technology in animal agriculture is still in its infancy; blockchain technology has the potential to improve the traceability and transparency of animal products, but more research is needed to realize its full potential. The digitalization of animal farming can supply the necessary tools to provide sustainable animal products on a global scale.

Considering the important demand of fresh water and its scarce availability, water desalination is an interesting technology, producing about 44 Mm³/year worldwide, but, in general the most common desalination techniques are highly energy demanding. Freezing-Melting (F/M) desalination uses just up to 70% less thermal energy, but is the least used process mainly, due to the difficulty of the salt separation. This study proposes a model able to analyses the thermodynamic potential that allows the salt diffusion during the F/M process, using an aqueous solution of sodium chloride. This should allow to obtain a sensitive analysis of the process to promote the separation between the high concentration brine and the ice with liquid separation by physical process. The unidimensional model is based on the evolution of both processes: thermal and mass diffusions, depending on temperature and saline gradients, predicting whether the salt will remain inside the ice or not. Thus, the thermal potential is adjusted to frozen only when the salt has been "pushed" towards the brine. Mostly models have base their results on the assumption of a “certain value of saline concentration of the liquid fraction”, value in which there is great disagreement. In this paper the calculations are based on the concentration in the solid-liquid interface, which has been extensively studied and there is a coincidence in those results, being the main advantage of the proposed model.

Biofuels construct an essential pillar of energy systems. Biofuels are considered as a popular resource for electricity production, heating, household, and industrial usage, liquid fuels, and mobility around the world. Thus, the need for handling, modeling, decision-making, demand, and forecasting for biofuels are of utmost importance. Recently, machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) techniques have been accessible in modeling, optimizing, and handling biofuels production, consumption, and environmental impacts. The main aim of this study is to review and evaluate ML and DL techniques and their applications in handling biofuels production, consumption, and environmental impacts, both for modeling and optimization purposes. Hybrid and ensemble ML methods, as well as DL methods, have found to provide higher performance and accuracy in modeling the biofuels.

This paper is aimed at studying the temporal evolution of the surface displacements occurred over the past few years in the ocean-reclaimed platforms of the Shanghai megacity (China), which are mainly ascribable to consolidation processes of large dredger fills and alluvial deposits. With respect to previous analyses carried out over the same area, this work provides a joint multi-platform differential interferometry synthetic aperture radar (DInSAR) analysis, based on the application of the advanced Small BAseline Subset (SBAS) algorithm. This led us to retrieve long-term deformation time-series that are helpful for a better understanding of the on-going deformation phenomena. To this aim, we have exploited two sequences of SAR data collected by the ASAR/ENVISAT and by the COSMO-SkyMed (CSK) sensors, respectively, spanning the whole time period from 2007 to 2016. Unfortunately, the large time gap (of about three years) existing between the available ASAR/ENVISAT and CSK datasets gave rise to additional difficulties for their combination. Nevertheless, this problem has been faced by benefiting from the knowledge of a time-dependent model describing the temporal evolution of the expected deformations affecting the Shanghai ocean-reclaimed platforms.

In this review, we address issues that relate to the rapid “Warp Speed” development of vaccines to counter the COVID-19 pandemic. We review the antibody response that is triggered by SARS-CoV-2 infection of humans, and how it may inform vaccine research. The isolation and properties of neutralizing monoclonal antibodies from COVID-19 patients provide additional information on what vaccines should try to elicit. The nature and longevity of the antibody response to coronaviruses are relevant to the potency and duration of vaccine-induced immunity. We summarize the immunogenicity of leading vaccine candidates tested to date in animals and humans, and discuss the outcome and interpretation of virus-challenge experiments in animals. By far the most immunogenic vaccine candidates for antibody responses are recombinant proteins, which are not included in the initial wave of “Warp Speed” immunogens. A substantial concern for SARS-CoV-2 vaccines is adverse events, which we review by considering what was seen in studies of SARS-CoV-1 and MERS-CoV vaccines. We conclude by outlining the possible outcomes of the “Warp Speed” vaccine program, which range from the hoped-for rapid success to a catastrophic adverse influence on vaccine uptake generally.

Models come in different forms: visual, arithmetic, mental, physical. The most common type of model is arguably the mental model, which people use to view and interpret the world. A model can be described as a representation of a problem or a situation – a simplified representation. The process of building or developing a model is called modeling. A model once developed by the modeller, can be ‘owned’ by a manager or decision maker. The ideal is to make the model an extension of the user’s ability to think about and analyse problems or situations. When used properly – taking into consideration its limitations – an economic model for a project can provide insight for decision makers, when making the crucial decision to approve a project. An economic model for a liquefied natural gas (LNG) project is shown as an example.

Terms related to gradients of scalar fields are introduced as scalar products into the formulation of entropy. A Lagrange density is then formulated by adding constraints based on known conservation laws. Applying the Lagrange formalism to the resulting Lagrange density leads to the Poisson equation of gravitation and also includes terms being related to curvature of space. The formalism further leads to terms possibly explaining nonlinear extensions known from modified Newtonian dynamics approaches. The article concludes with a short discussion of the presented methodology and provides an outlook on other phenomena, which might be tackled using this new approach.

The Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect (SZe) is a global distortion of Cosmic Microwave Bckground (CMB) spectrum as result of its interaction with a hot electron plasma in the intracluster medium for large gravitational virialized structures such as galaxy clusters. Furthermore, this hot gas of electrons emits X-Rays due to its fall in the gravitational potential well of the cluster. The analysis of SZe and X-Ray data, provide a method for calculating distances to galaxy clusters at any redshift (Angular diameter distance (d_A) and gas mass fraction (f_gas)). On the other side, many of these galaxy clusters produce a Strong Gravitational Lens effect (SGL), which has become an useful astrophysical tool for cosmology. We use these cosmological tests, in addition to the more traditional ones (SNIa, CMB, BAO), to constraint alternative models of dark energy (ωCDM, CPL, IDE, EDE) and study the history of expansion through the cosmographic parameters (H(z), q(z), j(z)). Using Akaike and Bayesian Information Criterion (AIC, BIC) we find that the ωCDM and ΛCDM models are the most favored by the observational data. In addition, we found that at low redshift appears an peculiar behavior of slowdown of aceleration, which occurs only on dynamical dark energy models using only galaxy clusters (d_A,clusters + f_gas).

Anomalous waves and rogue events are closely associated with irregularities and unexpected events occurring at various levels of physics, such as in optics, in oceans and in the atmosphere. Mathematical modeling of rogue waves is a highly actual field of research, which has evolved over the last decades into a specialized part of mathematical physics. The applications of the mathematical models for rogue events is directly relevant to technology development for prediction of rogue ocean waves, and for signal processing in quantum units. In this survey, a comprehensive perspective of the most recent developments in methods for representing rogue waves is given, along with discussion of the devised and forms and solutions. The standard nonlinear Schrödinger equation, the Hirota equation, the MMT equation and further to other models are discussed, and their properties highlighted. This survey shows that the most recent advancement in modeling rogue waves give models which can be used to establish methods for prediction of rogue waves at open seas, which is important for the safety and activity of marine vessels and installations. The study further puts emphasis on the difference between the methods, and how the resulting models form a basis for representing rogue waves in various forms, solitary or with a wave-background. This review has also a pedagogic component directed towards students and interested non-experts, and forms a complete survey of the most conventional and emerging methods published until recently

Hydro-climatic projections in West Africa are attributed with high uncertainties that are difficult to quantify. This study assesses the influence of the parameter sensitivities and uncertainties of three rainfall runoff models on simulated discharge in current and future times using meteorological data from 8 Global Climate Models. The IHACRES Catchment Moisture Deficit (IHACRES-CMD) model, the GR4J and the Sacramento model were chosen for this study. During model evaluation, 10,000 parameter sets have been generated for each model and used in a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method. Out of the three models, IHACRES-CMD recorded the highest Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.92 and 0.86 for the calibration (1997-2003) and the validation (2004-2010) period respectively. The Sacramento model was able to adequately predict low flow patterns on the catchment while the GR4J and IHACRES-CMD over and under estimate low flow respectively. The use of multiple hydrological models to reduce uncertainties caused by model approaches is recommended along with other methods of sustainable river basin managements.

Long memory plays an important role in many fields by determining the behaviour and predictability of systems; for instance, climate, hydrology, finance, networks and DNA sequencing. In particular, it is important to test if a process is exhibiting long memory since that impacts the accuracy and confidence with which one may predict future events on the basis of a small amount of historical data. A major force in the development and study of long memory was the late Benoit B. Mandelbrot. Here we discuss the original motivation of the development of long memory and Mandelbrot's influence on this fascinating field. We will also elucidate the sometimes contrasting approaches to long memory in different scientific communities

Recent advances in sensor and platform technologies such as satellite systems, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), manned aerial platforms, and ground-based sensor networks have resulted in massive volumes of data is produced and collected about the earth. Processing, managing, and analyzing these data is one of the main challenges in 3D synthetic representation used in modeling and simulation (M&S) of the natural environment. M&S devices, such as flight simulators, traditionally require a variety of different databases to provide a synthetic representation of the world. M&S often requires integration of data from a variety of sources stored in different formats. Thus, for simulation of a complex synthetic environment, such as a 3D terrain model, tackling interoperability among its components (geospatial data, natural and man-made objects, dynamic and static models) is a critical challenge. Conventional approaches used local proprietary data models and formats. These approaches often lacked interoperability and created silos of content within the simulation community. Therefore, open geospatial standards are increasingly perceived as a means to promote interoperability and reusability for 3D M&S. In this paper, the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) CDB Standard is introduced. “CDB” originally refers to Common DataBase which is currently considered as a name with no abbreviation in the OGC community. The OGC CDB is an international standard for structuring, modeling, and storing geospatial information required in high performance modeling and simulation applications. CDB defines the core conceptual models, use cases, requirements, and specifications for employing geospatial data in 3D M&S. The main features of the OGC CDB Standard are described as run-time performance, full plug-and-play interoperable geospatial data store, usefulness in 3D and dynamic simulation environment, ability to integrate proprietary and open-source data formats. Furthermore, compatibility with the OGC standards baseline reduces the complexity of discovering, transforming, and streaming geospatial data into the synthetic environment and makes them more widely acceptable to major geospatial data/software producers. This paper includes an overview of OGC CDB version 1.0 which defines a conceptual model and file structure for the storage, access, and modification of a multi-resolution 3D synthetic environment data store. Finally, this paper presents a perspective of future versions of the OGC CDB and what the steps are for humanizing the OGC CDB standard with the other OGC/ISO standards baseline.

Warren Weaver, writing about the function that science should have in mankind’s developing future, ideas and ideals, proposed to classify scientific problems into ‘problems of simplicity’, ‘problems of disorganised complexity’, and ‘problems of organised complexity’ — the huge complementary class to which all biological, human, and social problems belong. Problems of simplicity have few components and variables and have been extensively addressed in the last 400 years. Problems of disorganised complexity have a huge number of individually erratic components and variables, but possess collective regularities that can be analysed by resourcing to stochastic methods. Yet, problems of organised complexity do not yield easily to classical or statistical treatment since interrelations among phenomenon elements change during its evolution alongside commonly used state variables, affecting behaviour and outcome. Moreover, organisation, the focal point in this complementary class, is still an elusive concept despite the gigantic efforts undertaken since a century ago to tame it. This paper addresses the description, representation and study of phenomena in the ‘problems of organised complexity’ class. Grounded on relational mathematical constructs, a theoretical framework providing operational definitions and schemes for formally modelling organisations and interaction of organisations is introduced. This framework extends the general systems’ concept and provides a novel perspective for addressing organised complexity phenomena as a collection of interacting organisations.

The quality of digital elevation models (DEMs) is inevitably affected by the limitations of the imaging modes and the generation methods. One effective way to solve this problem is to merge the available datasets through data fusion. In this paper, a fusion-based global DEM dataset (82°S-82°N) is introduced, which we refer to as GSDEM-30. This is a 30-m DEM mainly reconstructed from the unfilled SRTM1, AW3D30, and ASTER GDEM v2 datasets combining the multi-source and multi-scale fusion techniques. A comprehensive evaluation of the GSDEM-30 data, as well as the 30-m ASTER GDEM v2 and AW3D30 DEM, was presented. Global ICESat GLAS data and the local National Elevation Dataset (NED) were used as the reference for the vertical accuracy validation, while GlobeLand30 was introduced for the landscape analysis. Furthermore, we employed the maximum slope approach to detect the potential artefacts in the DEMs. The results show that the GDEM data are seriously affected by noise and artefacts. With the advantage of the multiple datasets and the refined post-processing, the GSDEM-30 are contaminated with fewer anomalies than both ASTER GDEM and AW3D30. The fusion techniques used can also be applied to the reconstruction of other fused DEM datasets.

Preclinical animal studies provide valuable opportunities to better understand human diseases and contribute to major advances in medicine. This review provides a comprehensive overview of ocular parameters in humans and selected animals, with a focus on the ocular surface, detailing species differences in ocular surface anatomy, physiology, tear film dynamics and tear film composition. We describe major pitfalls that tremendously limit the translational potential of traditional laboratory animals (ie., rabbits, mice and rats) in ophthalmic research, and highlight the benefits of integrating companion dogs with clinical analogues to human diseases into preclinical pharmacology studies. This One Health approach can help accelerate and improve the framework in which ophthalmic research is translated to the human clinic. Studies can be conducted in canine subjects with naturally occurring or non-invasively induced ocular surface disorders (eg., dry eye disease, conjunctivitis), reviewed herein, and tear fluid can be easily retrieved from canine eyes for various bioanalytical purposes. In this review, we discuss common tear collection methods, including capillary tubes and Schirmer tear strips, and provide guidelines for tear sampling and extraction to improve the reliability of analyte quantification (drugs, proteins, others).

There is increasing evidence that the impact of climate change on the productivity of grasslands will at least partly depend on their biodiversity. A high level of biodiversity may confer stability to grassland ecosystems against environmental change, but there are also direct effects of biodiversity on the quantity and quality of grassland productivity. To explain the manifold interactions, and to predict future climatic responses, models may be used. However, models designed for studying the interaction between biodiversity and productivity tend to be structurally different from models for studying the effects of climatic impacts. Here we review the literature on the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and productivity of grasslands. We first discuss the availability of data for model development. Then we analyse strengths and weaknesses of three types of model: ecological, process-based and integrated. We discuss the merits of this model diversity and the scope for merging different model types.

In Wuhan city of China, an episode of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) happened. during late December and it has quickly spread to all places in the world. Until May 29, 2020, cases were high in the USA with 1.7 Million, Russia with approximately 387 thousand, the UK with 271 thousand confirmed cases. Everybody on the planet is anxious to know when the coronavirus pandemic will end. In this scourge, most nations force extreme medication measures to contain the spread of COVID-19. Modeling has been utilized broadly by every national government and the World Health Organization in choosing the best procedures to seek after in relieving the impacts of COVID-19. Many epidemiological models are studied to understand the spread of the illness and its prediction to find maximum capacity for human-to-human transmission so that control techniques can be adopted. Also, arrangements for the medical facilities required such as hospital beds and medical supplies can be made in advance. Many models are used to anticipate the results keeping in view the present scenario. There is an urgent need to study the various models and their impacts. In this study, we present a systematic literature review on epidemiological models for the outbreak of novel coronavirus in India. The epidemiological dynamics of COVID-19 is also studied. Here, In addition, an attempt to take out the results from the exploration and comparing it with the real data. The study helps to choose the models that are progressive and dependable to predict and give legitimate methods for various strategies.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative agent of CoV disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a highly pathogenic and transmissible CoV that is presently plaguing the global human population and economy. No proven effective anti-viral therapy or vaccine currently exist, and supportive care remains to be the cornerstone treatment. Through previous lessons learned from SARS-CoV-1 and MERS-CoV studies, scientific groups worldwide have rapidly expanded the knowledge pertaining to SARS-CoV-2 virology that included in vitro and in vivo models for testing of anti-viral therapies, and randomized clinical trials. In the present narrative, we review SARS-CoV-2 virology, clinical features, pathophysiology, and animal models with a specific focus on anti-viral and adjunctive therapies currently being tested or require testing in animal models and randomized clinical trials.

In the last few decades, the dynamics of tumor cells and their growths are presented via clinical, experimental, and theoretical approaches, which leads to the development of the new idea of multiple cancer therapies to control and reduce the death rate for earlier detection. In this paper, we discussed the dynamics of tumor cell growth and its treatment process. We analyzed some simple mathematical models and generalized the study to understand the growth of tumor cells. The main proposed model is a system of ordinary differential equations which combines interactions among natural killer cells, dendritic cells and cytotoxic CD8+ T cells. The model is solved numerically to explain how the tumor cells spread and become more dangerous as well as the treatment process of cancer. It is also studied that how the cell behaves in the presence of different therapy and drugs. The optimal control of chemotherapy has been discussed. It has also been explained how much the model is effective in reducing tumor cells over time. Finally, a couple of spatially distributed models are discussed for tumor cell growth.

Wave steepness is presented as an extension and a valuable add-on to the conventional set of sea state parameters retrieved from satellite altimetry data. Following physical model based on recent advances of weak turbulence theory wave steepness is estimated from directly measured spatial gradient of wave height. In this way the method works with altimetry trajectories rather than with point-wise data. Moreover, in contrast to widely used parametric models this approach provides us with instantaneous values of wave steepness and period. Relevance of single-track estimates of wave steepness (period) is shown for wave climate studies and confirmed by a simple probabilistic model. The approach is verified via comparison against buoy and satellite data including crossover points for standard 1 second data of Ku-band altimeters. High quality of the physical model and robustness of the parametric ones are examined in terms of global wave statistics. Prospects and relevance of both approaches in the ocean wave climate studies are discussed.

Modern language models are designed to generate text so realistic that it could easily be mistaken for human-authored content. Additionally, they can engage in conversations with humans in a manner that appears coherent and reasonable. The epitome of this technological advancement is ChatGPT, a model based on OpenAI's Generative Pretrained Transformer (GPT) language model. With its ability to produce high-quality content in mere seconds, ChatGPT surpasses other chatbots in terms of capabilities, drawing significant interest and excitement from both the business community and academic researchers. This study offers a comprehensive review of current research on ChatGPT, delving into its technological foundation, supportive mechanisms, and findings regarding its benefits across various fields and application areas. We evaluate and discuss the strengths and weaknesses of ChatGPT based on this review and suggest potential avenues for future research.

In terrain analysis and hydrological modeling, surface depressions (or sinks) in a digital elevation model (DEM) are commonly treated as artifacts and thus filled and removed to create a depressionless DEM. Various algorithms have been developed to identify and fill depressions in DEMs during the past decades. However, few studies have attempted to delineate and quantify the nested hierarchy of actual depressions, which can provide crucial information for characterizing surface hydrologic connectivity and simulating the fill-merge-spill hydrological process. In this paper, we present an innovative and efficient algorithm for delineating and quantifying nested depressions in DEMs using the level-set method based on graph theory. The proposed level-set method emulates water level decreasing from the spill point along the depression boundary to the lowest point at the bottom of a depression. By tracing the dynamic topological changes (i.e., depression splitting/merging) within a compound depression, the level-set method can construct topological graphs and derive geometric properties of the nested depressions. The experimental results of two fine-resolution LiDAR-derived DEMs show that the raster-based level-set algorithm is much more efficient (~150 times faster) than the vector-based contour tree method. The proposed level-set algorithm has great potential for being applied to large-scale ecohydrological analysis and watershed modeling.

The comprehensibility of good predictive models learned from high-dimensional gene expression data is attractive because it can lead to biomarker discovery. Several good classifiers provide comparable predictive performance but differ in their abilities to summarize the observed data. We extend a Bayesian Rule Learning (BRL-GSS) algorithm, previously shown to be a significantly better predictor than other classical approaches in this domain. It searches a space of Bayesian networks using a decision tree representation of its parameters with global constraints, and infers a set of IF-THEN rules. The number of parameters and therefore the number of rules are combinatorial to the number of predictor variables in the model. We relax these global constraints to a more generalizable local structure (BRL-LSS). BRL-LSS entails more parsimonious set of rules because it does not have to generate all combinatorial rules. The search space of local structures is much richer than the space of global structures. We design the BRL-LSS with the same worst-case time-complexity as BRL-GSS while exploring a richer and more complex model space. We measure predictive performance using Area Under the ROC curve (AUC) and Accuracy. We measure model parsimony performance by noting the average number of rules and variables needed to describe the observed data. We evaluate the predictive and parsimony performance of BRL-GSS, BRL-LSS and the state-of-the-art C4.5 decision tree algorithm, across 10-fold cross-validation using ten microarray gene-expression diagnostic datasets. In these experiments, we observe that BRL-LSS is similar to BRL-GSS in terms of predictive performance, while generating a much more parsimonious set of rules to explain the same observed data. BRL-LSS also needs fewer variables than C4.5 to explain the data with similar predictive performance. We also conduct a feasibility study to demonstrate the general applicability of our BRL methods on the newer RNA sequencing gene-expression data.

In this paper, we study the asymptotic behavior of the sequential empirical process and the sequential empirical copula process, both constructed from residuals of multivariate stochastic volatility models. Applications for the detection of structural changes and specification tests of the distribution of innovations are discussed. It is also shown that if the stochastic volatility matrices are diagonal, which is the case if the univariate time series are estimated separately instead of being jointly estimated, then the empirical copula process behaves as if the innovations were observed; a remarkable property. As a by-product, one also obtains the asymptotic behavior of rank-based measures of dependence applied to residuals of these time series models.

This paper proposes the impact of plug-in electric vehicles integrated into power distribution system based on voltage dependent control. The plug-in electric vehicles was modeled as the static load model in power distribution systems under balanced load condition. The power flow analysis is determined by using the basic parameters of the electrical network. The main point of this study are compare with voltage magnitude profiles, load voltage deviation, and total power losses of the electrical power system. There are investigating the affected from constant power load, constant current load, constant impedance load and plug-in electric vehicles load, respectively. The IEEE 33 bus test system is used to test the proposed method by assigning each load type to a balanced load in steady state and applied the solving methodology based on the bus injection to branch injection matric, branch current to bus voltage matrix, and current injection matrix to solve the power flow problem. The simulation results showed that the plug-in electric vehicles load had the lowest impact compared to other loads. The lowest plug-in values for the electric vehicle loads were 0.062, 119.67 kW and 79.31 kVar for the load voltage deviation, total active power loss and total reactive power loss, respectively. Therefore, this study can be verified that the plug-in electric vehicles load were affected to the lowest of the electrical power system in condition to same sizing and position. So that, in condition to the plug-in electric vehicles load added into the electrical power system with the conventional load type or complex load type could be considered that the affected from the plug-in electric vehicles load in next study.

Metastasis is the leading cause of cancer-related death and drives patient morbidity as well as healthcare costs. For several cancers, breast and prostate in particular, bone is the primary site of metastasis. Efforts to treat bone metastases have been stymied by a lack of models to study the progression and cellular players and signaling pathways driving bone metastasis. In this review, we examine the newly described and classic models of bone metastasis. Through the use of current in vivo, microfluidic and in silico computational models bone metastasis models we may eventually understand how cells escape the primary tumor and how these circulating tumor cells then home to and colonize the bone marrow. Further, future models may uncover how cell enter and escape dormancy to develop into overt metastases. Recreating the metastatic process will lead to the discovery of therapeutic targets for disrupting and treating bone metastasis.

While increasing empirical evidence suggests that global time series forecasting models can achieve better forecasting performance than local ones, there is a research void regarding when and why the global models fail to provide a good forecast. This paper uses anomaly detection algorithms and Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) to answer when and why a forecast should not be trusted. To address this issue, a dashboard was built to inform the user regarding (i) the relevance of the features for that particular forecast, (ii) which training samples most likely influenced the forecast outcome, (iii) why the forecast is considered an outlier, and (iv) provide a range of counterfactual examples to understand value changes, in the feature vector or the predicted value, can lead to a different outcome. Moreover, a modular architecture and a methodology were developed to iteratively remove noisy data instances from the train set, to enhance the overall global time series forecasting model performance. Finally, to test the effectiveness of the proposed approach, it was validated on two publicly available real-world datasets.

The severity of forest fires derived from remote sensing data for research and management has become increasingly widespread in the last decade, where these data typically quantify the pre- and post-fire spectral change between satellite images on multi-spectral sensors. However, there is an active discussion about which of the main indices (dNBR, RdNBR or RBR) is the most adequate to estimate the severity of the fire, as well about the adjustment model used in the classification of severity levels. This study proposes and evaluates a new technique for mapping severity as an alternative to regression models, based on the use of the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) automatic learning algorithm, from GeoCBI field data and spectral indices dNBR, RdNBR and RBR applied to Landsat TM, ETM+ Images, for two fires in central Spain. We compare the severity discrimination capability on dNBR, RdNBR and RBR, through a spectral separability index (M) and then evaluated the concordance of these metrics with field data based on GeoCBI measurements. Specifically, we evaluated the correspondence (R²) between each metric and the continuous measurement of fire severity (GeoCBI) and the general precision of the regression and MLE models, for the four categorized levels of severity (Unburned, Low, Moderate, and High). The results show that the RBR has more spectral separability (average between two fires M = 2.00) that the dNBR (M = 1.82) and the RdNBR (M=1.80), additionally the GeoCBI has a better adjustment with the RBR of (R² = 0.73), than the RdNBR (R² = 0.72), and dNBR (R² = 0.71). Finally, the overall classification accuracy achieved with the MLE (Kappa = 0.65) has a better result than regression models (Kappa = 0.58) and higher accuracy of individual classes.

Calibrating ecological models or making decisions with them is an optimisation problem with challenging methodological issues. Depending on the optimisation formulation, there may be a large variety of optimisation configurations (e.g. multiple objectives, constraints, stochastic criteria) and finding a single acceptable solution may be difficult. The challenges are exacerbated by the high computational cost and the non linear or elusive mathematical properties that increased with the complexity of numerical models. From the feedbacks of practitioners, the need for a guideline for conducting optimisation of complex models has emerged. In this context, we propose a practical guide for the complex model optimisation process, covering both calibration and decision-making. The guide sets out the workflow with recommendations for each step based on existing tools and methods usually scattered throughout the literature. This guide is accompanied with an ODDO template (Overview, Design, Details of Optimisation) to standardise the published description of model-based optimisation and suggests research directions.

Background: The use of animal models for biomedical research provides us with a convenient and feasible route to establish causal relationships by recapitulating the temporal sequence of events in a controlled environment with a potential to manipulate the variables at multiple levels including genetic, protein, physiological or environmental. Objectives: The current review was conducted to gain insights into various animal models for the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Material and Methods: A literature review (PUBMED, PUBMED Central, PMC, Google Scholar, Google search engine) following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines performed in early April 2020 revealed 9 articles of interest. Search terms included covid 19, covid-19, novel corona virus, SARS-CoV-2, animal models, experimental models, laboratory models & covid 19 animal models. Two independent reviewers extracted the data; the third reviewer was involved in case of discrepancy. Results: SARS-CoV-2 shares an identical receptor binding domain with the SARS-CoV virus and has a superior binding affinity to the host ACE2. Based on this, the role of rhesus macaques, golden Syrian hamsters, transgenic hACE2 mice and ferrets as animal models have been studied. All four animals are susceptible to infection with SARS-CoV-2 with variable clinical presentation but universal recovery. The respiratory tract is primarily involved in all four models. Involvement of intestines was also seen in at least one study in each animal. Transfer to naïve animals in close contact has been documented in case of hamsters and ferrets. Seroconversion was documented in all although the role of convalescent sera was tested in hamsters only, with positive results though. Air-borne transmission was documented in ferrets and the possibility of feco-oral transmission was suggested for hamsters. The possibilities of recurrence and re-infection were ruled out by experiments upon the rhesus macaques. The fulfilment of Koch’s postulates has been highlighted. Discussion: The various studies available on animal models have been able to establish models of infection and transmission that recapitulate different aspects of disease in humans. However, the response between different animals and the same animal in different experiments is not completely coherent. Some of them do not manifest the disease clinically while others behave differently at molecular and immunological levels. Moreover, the physiology of these animals is not identical to human beings and the findings may not be extrapolated to human beings in an ‘as-is’ manner. Conclusions: The review acknowledges the achievements made by these experiments in a short span of time and highlighted the urgent need for a deeper dive in search of a quintessential animal model which can be studied for efficacy and safety of newer drugs and vaccines before a make-shift from the petri-dish to the human body can be contemplated.

Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) based remote sensing (RS) studies in glaciology are mainly focusing on obtaining accurate high-resolution data from UAV images. Studies for identifying and minimising the challenges faced during the UAV-based RS data acquisition survey on inaccessible and harsh terrains of mountain glaciers is limited. This study aims to examine the practical challenges faced during UAV surveys of glaciers and derive strategies to minimize them. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first study that addresses such problems over the Himalayan region. Here, the UAV surveys were conducted using a fixed-wing commercial-grade off-the-shelf UAV (eBee plus, SenseFly) on three glacier sites (East Rathong, Hamtah and Panchinala-A) located in different zones and climate regimes lying within the Indian part of Himalayas. From UAV collected photos, the study was able to generate ultra-high-resolution ortho-mosaicked images and Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) at 0.1m GSD. UAV-derived DEMs was able to achieve vertical (horizontal) accuracy of 0.45 and 0.21 m (0.15 and 0.1 m) with 3 and 6 ground control points (GCPs) for an area of 0.75 km2 and 1.38 km2. Accuracy assessment of UAV DEMs generated with and without GCPs indicate that GCPs are must to obtain decimetre level accurate DEM especially on glaciers with steep-valleyed terrains. The utility of the obtained ultra-high-resolution ortho-mosaicked images was demonstrated by generating glacier surface feature maps. Based on the challenges observed during UAV surveys, the study identifies and recommends best-suited locations on a glacier and its adjacent regions for conducting UAV surveys efficiently in the glaciated terrain of Himalayas and possibly beyond. Recommendations reported in this article shall minimise the challenges faced and involved risks for data acquisition and thus enable UAVs to cover more glaciated area successfully.

Mathematical modelling of bioprocesses has a long and notable history, with eminent contributions from fields including microbiology, ecology, biophysics, chemistry, statistics, control theory and mathematical theory. This richness of ideas and breadth of concepts provide great motivation for inquisitive engineers and intrepid scientists to try their hand at modelling, and this collaboration of disciplines has also delivered significant milestones in the quality and application of models for both theoretical and practical interrogation of engineered biological systems. The focus of this review is the anaerobic digestion process, which, as a technology that has come in and out of fashion, still remains a fundamental process for addressing the global climate emergency. Whether with conventional anaerobic digestion systems, biorefineries, or other anaerobic technologies, mathematical models are important tools that are used to design, monitor, control and optimise the process. Both highly structured, mechanistic models and data-driven approaches have been used extensively over half a decade, but recent advances in computational capacity, scientific understanding and diversity and quality of process data, presents an opportunity for the development of new modelling paradigms, augmentation of existing methods, or even incorporation of tools from other disciplines, to ensure that anaerobic digestion research can remain resilient and relevant in the face of emerging and future challenges.

The first part of this paper contains a brief description of the beginnings of modern cosmology, which, the author will argue, was most likely born in the Year 1912. Some of the pieces of evidence presented here have emerged from recent research in the history of science, and are not usually shared with the general audiences in popular science books. In special, the issue of the correct formulation of the original Big Bang concept, according to the precise words of Fred Hoyle, is discussed. Too often, this point is very deficiently explained (when not just misleadingly) in most of the available generalist literature. Other frequent uses of the same words, Big Bang, as to name the initial singularity of the cosmos, and also whole cosmological models, are then addressed, as evolutions of its original meaning. Quantum and inflationary additions to the celebrated singularity theorems by Penrose, Geroch, Hawking and others led to subsequent results by Borde, Guth and Vilenkin. And corresponding corrections to the Einstein field equations have originated, in particular, R², f(R), and scalar-tensor gravities, giving rise to a plethora of new singularities. For completeness, an updated table with a classification of the same is given.

We present a general approach to define reproduction ratios or numbers to monitor the outbreak of epidemics that are modeled by mathematical evolution equations. This provides a solution to an important topic that has not been completely settled in the literature, especially in the case of complex epidemiological models. We illustrate our procedure with a full implementation of a standard deterministic SEIR model that is applied to examine the Covid-19 outbreaks and the effects of intervention measures in several countries in America (Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, USA) and Europe (France, Italy, Spain and UK) in 2020. Our code is also used to investigate herd immunity levels for Covid-19, indicating values between 85% and 90%.

Generative artificial intelligence (AI), in particular large language models such as ChatGPT have reached public consciousness with a wide-ranging discussion of their capabilities and suitability for various professions. Following the printing press and internet, generative AI language models are the third transformative technological invention with truly cross-sectoral impact on knowledge transmission. While the printing press allowed for the transmission of knowledge that is independent of the physical presence of the knowledge holder with publishers acting as gatekeepers, the internet added levels of democratization allowing anyone to publish, along with global immediacy. The development of social media resulted in an increased fragmentation and tribalization of on-line communities on their ways of knowing, resulting in alternative truths propagated in echo chambers. It is against this background that generative AI language models have entered public consciousness. Using strategic foresight methodology, this paper will examine the polemic proposition that the age of generative AI will emerge as an age of public ignorance.

This paper contains theoretical fundamentals of strut and tie models, used in unreinforced horizontal shear walls. Depending on support conditions and wall loading, we can distinguish models with discrete bars when point load is applied to the wall (type I model) or with continuous bars (type II model) when load is uniformly distributed at the wall boundary. The main part of this paper compares calculated results with the own tests on horizontal shear walls made of solid brick, silicate elements and autoclaved aerated concrete. The tests were performed in Poland. The model required some modifications due to specific load and static diagram.

In this paper new upper limits on the parameters of the Continuous Spontaneous Localization (CSL) collapse model are extracted. To this end the X-ray emission data collected by the IGEX collaboration are analyzed and compared with the spectrum of the spontaneous photon emission process predicted by collapse models. This study allows to obtain the most stringent limits within a relevant range of the CSL model parameters, with respect to any other method. The collapse rate $\lambda$ and the correlation length $r_C$ are mapped, thus allowing to exclude a broad range of the parameter space.

Feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) is a naturally-occurring retrovirus that infects domestic and non-domestic feline species, producing progressive immune depletion that results in an acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). Much has been learned about FIV since it was first described in 1987, particularly in regard to its application as a model to study the closely related lentivirus, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). In particular, FIV and HIV share remarkable structure and sequence organization, utilize parallel modes of receptor-mediated entry, and result in a similar spectrum of immunodeficiency-related diseases due to analogous modes of immune dysfunction. This review summarizes current knowledge of FIV infection kinetics and mechanisms of immune dysfunction in relation to opportunistic disease, specifically in regard to studying HIV pathogenesis. Furthermore, we present data which highlight changes in the oral microbiota and oral immune system during FIV infection, and outline the potential for the feline model of oral AIDS manifestations to elucidate pathogenic mechanisms of HIV-induced oral disease. Finally, we discuss advances in molecular biology, vaccine development, neurologic dysfunction, and the ability to apply pharmacologic interventions and sophisticated imaging technologies to study experimental and naturally occurring FIV, which provide an excellent, but often overlooked resource for advancing therapies and management of HIV/AIDS.

Introduced in 2009, Bitcoin has demonstrated a huge potential as the world’s first digital currency and has been widely used as a financial investment. Our research aims to uncover the relationship between Bitcoin prices and people’s sentiments about Bitcoin on social media. Among various social media platforms, micro-blogging is one of the most popular. Millions of people use micro-blogging platforms to exchange ideas, broadcast views, and to provide opinions on different topics related to politics, culture, science, and technology. This makes them a potentially rich source of data for sentiment analysis. Therefore we chose one of the busiest micro-blogging platforms, Twitter, to perform sentiment analysis on Bitcoin. We used ELMo embedding model to convert Bitcoin-related tweets into a vector form and SVM classifier to divide the tweets into three sentiment categories - positive, negative, and neutral. We then used the sentiment data to find its relation with Bitcoin price fluctuation using the linear mixed model.

This study compared the performance of five Family Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (fGARCH) models (sGARCH, gjrGARCH, iGARCH, TGARCH and NGARCH) in the presence of high positive autocorrelation. To achieve this, financial time series was simulated with autocorrelated coefficients as ρ = (0.8, 0.85, 0.9, 0.95, 0.99), at different time series lengths (as 250, 500, 750, 1000, 1250, 1500) and each trial was repeated 1000 times carried out in R environment using rugarch package. And the performance of the preferred model was judged using Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Results from the simulation revealed that these GARCH models performances varies with the different autocorrelation values and at different time series lengths. But in the overall, NGARCH model dominates with 62.5% and 59.3% using RMSE and MAE respectively. We therefore recommended that investors, financial analysts and researchers interested in stock prices and asset return should adapt NGARCH model when there is high positive autocorrelation in the financial time series data.

For disciplines like biological science, security, and the medical field, link prediction is a popular research area. To demonstrate the link prediction many methods have been proposed. Some of them that have been demonstrated through this review paper are TransE, Complex, DistMult, and DensE models. Each model defines link prediction with different perceptions. We argue that the practical performance potential of these methods, having similar parameter values, using the fine-tuning technique to evaluate their reliability and reproducibility of results. We describe those methods and experiments; provide theoretical proofs and experimental examples, demonstrating how current link prediction methods work in such settings. We use the standard evaluation metrics for testing the model's ability.

Monin-Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) overestimates wind shear in some atmospheric stable conditions, i.e. Richardson number $R_f<0.25$. The overestimated wind shear that leads to an under-predicted friction wind speed and a lower ambient turbulence intensity for a given hub-height reference wind speed and a given roughness length, could influence wake modeling of a wind turbine. This work investigates the side effects of the breakdown of MOST on wake modeling under stable conditions and makes some modifications to the flow similarity functions to eliminate these side effects. Based on a field measurement in a wind farm, we firstly show that MOST predicts a larger wind shear for the atmospheric stability parameter $\zeta>0.1$ and proposes new flow similarity functions without constraining $R_f$ to limit the overestimated wind shear by MOST. Next, different turbulence models based on MOST and a modified one based on the new similarity functions are investigated through numerical simulations. These turbulence models are combined with the actuator disk model (AD) and Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes equations (RANS) to model wind turbine wakes under stable conditions. As compared to measurements, numerical results show that turbulence models based on MOST result in larger wake deficits and slower wake recovery rate with a square root of the mean-squared-error (RSME) of wake deficit in the range of 0.07-0.18. This overestimated wake effect is improved by applying the new similarity functions and the RSME of wake deficit is averagely reduced by 0.05. Finally, we check the role of the under-predicted turbulence intensity playing in the larger wake deficit predicted by models based MOST. Additional numerical simulations using the modified turbulence model are carried out, in which the roughness length is reduced to impose a hub-height ambient turbulence intensity equivalent to the MOST case. Simulation results show that reducing turbulence intensity enhances wake effects, however, it cannot reproduce the large wake deficit predicted by models based on MOST, which suggests that the overestimated wake effect by MOST could be also related to the overestimated wind shear.

Configurable process models are frequently used to represent business workflows and other discrete event systems among different branches of large organizations: they unify commonalities shared by all branches and describe their differences, at the same time. The configuration of such models is usually done manually, which is challenging. On the one hand, when the number of configurable nodes in the configurable process model grows, the size of the search space increases exponentially. On the other hand, the person performing the configuration may lack the holistic perspective to make the right choice for all configurable nodes at the same time, since choices influence each other. Nowadays, information systems that support the execution of business processes create event data reflecting how processes are performed. In this article, we propose three strategies (based on exhaustive search, genetic algorithms, and greedy heuristic) that use event data to automatically derive a process model from a configurable process model that better represents the characteristics of the process in a specific branch. These strategies have been implemented in our proposed framework, and tested in both business-like event logs as recorded in a higher educational ERP system, and a real case scenario involving a set of Dutch municipalities.

Increasing rates of infection by antibiotic resistant bacteria have led to a resurgence of interest in bacteriophage (phage) therapy. Several phage therapy studies in animals and humans have been completed over the last two decades. We conducted a systematic review of safety and toxicity data associated with phage therapy in both animals and humans reported in English-language publications from 2008 – 2021. Overall, 69 publications met our eligibility criteria including 20 animal studies, 35 clinical case reports or case series, and 14 clinical trials. After summarizing safety and toxicity data from these publications, we discuss potential approaches to optimizing safety and toxicity monitoring with the therapeutic use of phage moving forward. In our systematic review of the literature, we found few, but no serious, adverse events associated with phage therapy. Comprehensive and standardized reporting of potential toxicities associated with phage therapy has generally been lacking in the published literature. Structured safety and tolerability endpoints are necessary when phages are administered as anti-infective therapeutics.

This work presents datasets that can be used for getting a good understanding of an essential geoscience content knowledge that describe earth’s coordinate systems. This include coordinate system used for spherical/spheroidal earth with latitudes and longitudes and their subsequent transformations to 2d maps on a variety of media (paper as well as digital) using the process of map projections. The datasets include PDF documents that are embedded with 3d models, animations and mathematical equations. The dataset has separate PDF documents for geographic (for spherical earth) and projected (2d) coordinate systems. Additionally, the data set include individual 3d models that can be used in various digital systems (including apps) and the animations in mp4 format that can be watched on most of the modern digital devices.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze how Green Business Models (BMs) established by small and medium enterprises (SMEs) can incorporate product and process decarbonization in their components (value proposition, creation and capture) and to what extent this incorporation is affected by SME size. We use a database comprising 1,161 observations of SMEs, 466 in 2014 and 695 in 2016. The results show that SMEs’ value propositions give an intermediate valuation to both legally required and voluntary reduction of environmental impact, irrespective of SME size and the year analyzed. Regarding value creation, SMEs adopt practically no environmental practices, and there are significant differences according to size, with more difficulties than advantages stemming from small size. The study also shows that such environmental practices are not effective in reducing carbon. This diagnosis indicates that SMEs need help from the administration if they are to play a key role in the process of transformation toward a low-carbon economy. Legislative actions involving harsher environmental protection measures might help shape value propositions that place greater importance on reducing environmental impact, whereas training actions on available environmental techniques, promotion of research on how to adapt such techniques to SMEs and the development of specific practices for SMEs might enhance environmental value creation and capture in their BMs.

In this paper we develop a forecasting algorithm for recurrent patterns in consumer demand. We study this problem in two different settings: pull and push models. We discuss several features of the algorithm concerning sampling, periodic approximation, denoising and forecasting.

Parametric cyclonic wind fields are widely used worldwide for insurance risk underwriting, coastal planning, or storm surge forecasts. They support high-stakes financial, development, and emergency decisions. Yet, there is still no consensus on the best parametric approach, or relevant guidance to choose among the great variety of published models. The aim of this paper is first and foremost to demonstrate that recent progresses on estimating extreme surface wind speeds from satellite remote sensing now makes it possible to select the best option with greater objectivity. In particular, we show that the Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) mission of NASA is able to capture a substantial part of the tropical cyclones structure, and allows identifying systematic biases in a number of parametric models. Our results also suggest that none of the traditional empirical approaches can be considered as the best option in all cases. Rather, the choice of a parametric model depends on several criteria such as cyclone intensity and/or availability of wind radii information. The benefit of using satellite remote sensing data to better select a parametric model for a specific case study is tested here by simulating hurricane Maria (2017). The significant wave heights computed by a wave-current hydrodynamic coupled model are found to be in good accordance with the predictions given by the remote sensing data in terms of bias. The results and approach presented in this study should shed new light on how to handle parametric cyclonic wind models, and help the scientific community to conduct better wind, waves and surge analysis for tropical cyclones.

A computational methodology for the hydrodynamic analysis of horizontal axis marine current turbines is presented. The approach is based on a boundary integral equation method for inviscid flows originally developed for marine propellers and adapted here to describe the flow features that characterize hydrokinetic turbines. To this purpose, semi-analytical trailing wake and viscous-flow correction models are introduced. A validation study is performed by comparing hydrodynamic performance predictions with two experimental test cases and with results from other numerical models in the literature. The capability of the proposed methodology to correctly describe turbine thrust and power over a wide range of operating conditions is discussed. Viscosity effects associated to blade flow separation and stall are taken into account and predicted thrust and power are comparable with results of blade element methods that are largely used in the design of marine current turbines. The accuracy of numerical predictions tend to reduce in cases where turbine blades operate in off-design conditions.

In this paper a dynamic relationship between the CO2 emissions in Finland, Norway and Sweden is presented. With the help of a VAR(2) model, and using the Granger terminology, it is shown that the emissions in Finland are affecting those in Norway and Sweden. Other aspects of this dynamic relationship are presented as well.

Background: Low-level physical activity (PA) among Chronic Low Back Pain (cLBP) is associated with various biopsychosocial factors. This research aimed to study the predictors of PA behavior among cLBP patients. Methods: In the present study 300 eligible patients with cLBP who referred to comprehensive health service centers in the Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences (SBUMS) in Tehran, Iran were random selected.To diagnose the predictors of PA behavior, all the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) constructs were examined as risk factors to see if they influence on the probability of PA behavior occurrence and were interpreted through odds ratio (OR). SPSS version 19 was used to analyze the data. Results: Totally 280 cLBP patients with mean age of 57.07 ±13.09 years old participated in the study. This study showed that motivation to comply significant predictor the cLBP patients for subjective norm OR (%95CI): 2.095(0.116-2.792), p-value<0.001), intention was significant predictor for perform the PA behavior OR (%95CI): 1.431(0.138-1.538), p-value <0.001), behavior beliefs could predictor for attitude OR (%95CI): 1.276(0.106-1.355), p-value= 0.002). attitude, normative beliefs, subjective norm ,and evaluation outcome behavior could predictors the cLBP patients for intention to perform the PA behavior OR (%95CI): 1.188(0.032-1.312), p-value<0.001)., OR (%95CI): 1.158(0.076-2.208), p-value=0.003) ., OR (%95CI): 1.104(0.076-1.128), p-value<0.001) ., OR (%95CI): 0.814(0.301-1.440), p-value=0.007). Conclusions: This study showed that the cLBP patients who were normative beliefs and evaluation regarding PA behavior could effect on the intention to engage in greater PA than those via other constructs (attitude and subjective norm). This study showed that the cLBP patients who were normative beliefs and evaluation regarding PA behavior could effect on the intention to engage in greater PA than those via other constructs (attitude and subjective norm). This study showed that the cLBP patients who were normative beliefs and evaluation regarding PA behavior could effect on the intention to engage in greater PA than those via other constructs (attitude and subjective norm).

The very first case of corona-virus illness was recorded on 30 January 2020, in India and the number of infected cases, including the death toll, continues to rise. In this paper, we present short-term forecasts of COVID-19 for 28 Indian states and five union territories using real-time data from 30 January to 20May 2020. Applying Holt’s second-order exponential smoothing method and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, we generated 10-day ahead forecasts of the likely number of infected cases and deaths in India until 29 May2020. Our results show that the number of cumulative cases in India will rise to169109 [PI 95% (14426, 19455)], concurrently the number of deaths may increase to 4863 [PI 95% (4221, 5551)] by 29 May 2020.Further, we have marked the states (e.g. Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Tamil Nadu) where outburst is expected by considering the cases above three standard deviations. Under the worst-case scenario, Maharashtra is likely to be the most affected state with around 62628 [PI 95% (52840, 73555)] cumulative cases by 29 May 2020. However, Kerala and Karnataka are likely to remain in the lesser affected region. The presented results mark the states where lockdown by 1 June2020, can be loosened.

In an era of rapid global change, our ability to understand and predict Earth's natural systems is lagging behind our ability to monitor and measure changes in the biosphere. Bottlenecks in our ability to process information have reduced our capacity to fully exploit the growing volume and variety of data. Here, we take a critical look at the information infrastructure that connects modeling and measurement efforts, and propose a roadmap that accelerates production of new knowledge. We propose that community cyberinfrastructure tools can help mend the divisions between empirical research and modeling, and accelerate the pace of discovery. A new era of data-model integration requires investment in accessible, scalable, transparent tools that integrate the expertise of the whole community, not just a clique of ‘modelers’. This roadmap focuses on five key opportunities for community tools: the underlying backbone to community cyberinfrastructure; data ingest; calibration of models to data; model-data benchmarking; and data assimilation and ecological forecasting. This community-driven approach is key to meeting the pressing needs of science and society in the 21st century.

. Identifying students who might have difficulty in their course of studies ahead of time is crucial. There can be many reasons for performance issues, such as personality, family, social, and/or economic. We advocate that educational systems should use machine learning to predict students’ performance based on performance factors. This would allow educational professionals and institutions to put in place a preventive plan to help students towards achievements of their educational goals and success. In this chapter, we propose a student performance prediction method and evaluate its performance. We provide a taxonomy of performance factors that help to gauge students performance from different perspectives and give insights on the categories and features that have more significant impact on students’ performance. The results of this work can be used by education institutions to put in place a student-centric approach to tackle performance issues before they create long-term effects on student’s life. In addition, it will help education policymakers to introduce a tailored approach for the population in specific areas.

Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is a fatal X-linked recessive neuromuscular disease prevalent in 1 in 3500 to 5000 males worldwide. As a result of mutations that interrupt the reading frame of the dystrophin gene (DMD), DMD is characterized by a loss of dystrophin protein which leads to decreased muscle membrane integrity, which increases susceptibility to degeneration. CRISPR/Cas9 technology has garnered interest as an avenue for DMD therapy due to its potential for permanent exon skipping, which can restore the disrupted DMD reading frame in DMD and lead to dystrophin restoration. An RNA-guided DNA endonuclease system, CRISPR/Cas9 allows for the targeted editing of specific sequences in the genome. The efficacy and safety of CRISPR/Cas9 as a therapy for DMD has been evaluated by numerous studies in vitro and in vivo, with varying rates of success. Despite the potential of CRISPR/Cas9-mediated gene editing for the long-term treatment of DMD, its translation into the clinic is currently challenged by issues such as off-targeting, immune response activation, and sub-optimal in vivo delivery. Its nature as being mostly a personalized form of therapy also limits applicability to DMD patients, who exhibit a wide spectrum of mutations. This review summarizes the various CRISPR/Cas9 strategies that have been tested in vitro and in vivo for the treatment of DMD. Perspectives on the approach will be provided, and the challenges faced by CRISPR/Cas9 in its road to the clinic will be briefly discussed.

Solar3D is an open-source software application designed to interactively calculate solar irradiation at three-dimensional (3D) surfaces in a virtual environment constructed with combinations of 3D city models, digital elevation models (DEMs), digital surface models (DSMs) and feature layers. The GRASS GIS r.sun solar radiation model computes solar irradiation based on two-dimensional (2D) raster maps for given day, latitude, surface and atmospheric conditions. With the increasing availability of 3D city models and demand for solar energy, there is an urgent need for better tools to computes solar radiation directly with 3D city models. Solar3D extends GRASS GIS r.sun from 2D to 3D by feeding the model with input, including surface slope, aspect and time-resolved shading, that is derived directly from the 3D scene using computer graphics techniques. To summarize, Solar3D offers several new features which, as a whole, distinguish itself from existing 3D solar irradiation tools: (1) the ability to consume massive heterogeneous 3D city models, including massive 3D city models such as oblique airborne photogrammetry-based 3D city models (OAP3Ds or integrated meshes); (2) the ability to perform near real-time pointwise calculation for duration from daily to annual; (3) the ability to integrate and interactively explore large-scale heterogeneous geospatial data. (4) the ability to calculate solar irradiation at arbitrary surface positions including at rooftops, facades and the ground. Solar3D is publicly available at https://github.com/jian9695/Solar3D.

Electromyographic (EMG) signals provide information about a person's muscle activity. For hand movements, in particular, the execution of each gesture involves the activation of different combinations of the forearm muscles, which generate distinct electrical patterns. Conversely, the analysis of these muscle activation patterns, represented by EMG signals, allows recognizing which gesture is being performed. In this study, we aimed to implement an automatic identification system of hand or wrist gestures based on supervised Machine Learning (ML) techniques. We trained different computational models and determined which of these showed the best capacity to identify six hand or wrist gestures and generalize between different subjects. We used an open access database containing recordings of EMG signals from 36 subjects. Among the results obtained, we highlight the performance of the Random Forest model, with an accuracy of 95.39%, and the performance of a convolutional neural network with an accuracy of 94.77%.

Volatility is the most widespread measure of risk. Volatility modeling allows investors to capture potential losses and investment opportunities. This work aims to examine the impact of the two waves of COVID-19 infections on the return and volatility of the stock market indices of the euro area countries. The study also focuses on other important aspects such as time-varying risk premium and leverage effect. Thus, this investigation employed the Threshold GARCH(1,1)-in-Mean model with exogenous dummy variables. Daily returns of ten euro area stock indices from 4th January 2016 to 31th December 2020 has been used for the analysis. The results reveal that euro area stock markets respond differently to the COVID-19 pandemic. Specifically, the first wave of COVID-19 infections had a notable impact on stock market volatility of euro area countries with large and middle financial centres while the second wave had a significant impact only on stock market volatility of Belgium.

Deep neural networks are hegemonic approaches to many machine learning areas, including natural language processing (NLP). Thanks to the availability of large corpora collections and the capability of deep architectures to shape internal language mechanisms in self-supervised learning processes (also known as "pre-training"), versatile and performing models are released continuously for every new network design. But these networks, somehow, learn a probability distribution of words and relations across the training collection used, inheriting the potential flaws, inconsistencies and biases contained in such a collection. As pre-trained models have found to be very useful approaches to transfer learning, dealing with bias has become a relevant issue in this new scenario. We introduce bias in a formal way and explore how it has been treated in several networks, in terms of detection and correction. Also, available resources are identified and a strategy to deal with bias in deep NLP is proposed.

This article proposes the use of a multi-scale and multi-sensor approach to collect and modelling 3D data concerning wide and complex areas in order to obtain a variety of metric information in the same 3D archive, based on a single coordinate system. The employment of these 3D georeferenced products is multifaceted and the fusion or integration among different sensors data, scales and resolutions is promising and could be useful for the generation of a model that could be defined as hybrid. The correct geometry, accuracy, radiometry and weight of the data models are hereby evaluated comparing integrated processes and results from Terrestrial Laser Scanner (TLS), Mobile Mapping System (MMS), Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV), terrestrial photogrammetry, using Total Station (TS) and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) as topographic survey. The entire analysis underlines the potentiality of the integration and fusion of different solutions and is a crucial part of the “Torino 1911” project whose main purpose is mapping and virtually reconstructing the 1911 Great Exhibition settled in the Valentino Park in Turin (Italy).

Testing and isolation have been crucial for controlling the COVID-19 pandemic. Venezuela has one of the weakest testing infrastructures in Latin America and the low number of reported cases in the country has been attributed to substantial underreporting. However, the Venezuelan epidemic seems to have lagged behind other countries in the region, with most cases occurring within the capital region and four border states. Here, we describe the spatial epidemiology of COVID-19 in Venezuela and its relation to population mobility, migration patterns, non-pharmaceutical interventions and fuel availability. Using an SEI metapopulation model, we explore how movement patterns could have driven the observed distribution of cases. Low within-country connectivity most likely delayed the epidemic in most states, except for those bordering Colombia and Brazil where high immigration seeded outbreaks. NPIs slowed early epidemic growth and subsequent fuel shortages appeared to be responsible for limiting the spread of COVID-19 across the country.

Electricity demand prediction is vital for energy production management and proper exploitation of the present resources. Recently, several novel machine learning (ML) models have been employed for electricity demand prediction to estimate the future prospects of the energy requirements. The main objective of this study is to review the various ML models applied for electricity demand prediction. Through a novel search and taxonomy, the most relevant original research articles in the field are identified and further classified according to the ML modeling technique, perdition type, and the application area. A comprehensive review of the literature identifies the major ML models, their applications and a discussion on the evaluation of their performance. This paper further makes a discussion on the trend and the performance of the ML models. As the result, this research reports an outstanding rise in the accuracy, robustness, precision and the generalization ability of the prediction models using the hybrid and ensemble ML algorithms.

The shallow water equations are widely applied for the simulation of flow routing in rivers and floodplains, as well as for flood inundation mapping. From a mathematical point of view, they are a hyperbolic system of nonlinear partial differential equations, whose numerical integration is sometimes computationally burdensome. For this reason, the interest of many researchers has been focused on the study of simplified forms of the original set of equations, which requires less computational effort. One of the most commonly applied simplifications consists in neglecting the inertial terms, which changes the hyperbolic model to a parabolic one. The effects of such a choice on the outputs of the simulations of flooding events are controversial and an important topic of debate. In the present paper, two numerical models, recently proposed for the solution of the complete and zero-inertia forms of the shallow waters equations, are applied to several unsteady flow routing scenarios. We simulate synthetic and laboratory studies, starting from very simple geometries and moving towards complex topographies. Analyzing the role of the terms in the momentum equations, we try to understand the effect, on the computed results, of neglecting the inertial terms in the zero-inertia formulation. We analyze the computational costs.

The complexity of software is increasing day by day due to the increase in the size of the projects being developed. For better planning and management of large software projects, estimation of software quality is important. During the development processes, complexity metrics are used for the indication of the attributes/characteristics of the quality software. There are many studies about the effect of the complexity of the software on the cost and quality. In this study, we discussed the effects of software complexity on the quality attributes of the software for open source and closed source software. Though, the quality metrics for open and closed source software are not distinct from each other. In this paper, we comparatively analyzed the impact of complexity metrics on open source and private software. We also presented various models for the management of the project complexity such as William’s Model, Stacey’s Agreement and Certainty matrix, Kahane’s Approach and UCP Model. Quality metrics here refer to the standards for the measurement of the quality of software which contains certain attributes or characteristics of the software that are related to the quality of the software. Certain quality attributes addressed in this study are Usability, Reliability, Security, Portability, Maintainability, Efficiency, Cost, Standards and Availability, etc. Both Open source and Closed source software are evaluated on the basis of these quality attributes. This study also recommended future approaches to manage the quality of project Open source and Closed source software and specify which one of them is mostly used in the industry.

Throughout the world, disabilities people have worse health prospects, lower education levels, lower economic participation, and higher poverty rate in comparative terms to people without disabilities. For disabilities people achieve better, more long-lasting prospects, we must empower these people and remove barriers that restrict them from participating in the community have access to quality education, to find decent work and have their voices heard. In statistical terms, a very useful alternative that can provide support and monitoring of public policies in this area is proposing to be used continuously. A risk index called risk index disabled person who is to assess which factors are associated to this risk, as well as the intensity and direction of each of these factors, yielding a final score that can be sorted or classified according to the probability of people acquire a certain disability. In the Brazilian case, we propose the use of techniques such as binary and ordinal logistic regression to select the most significant factors using criteria such as AIC, BIC and DIC. Calculate the risk probability for different disabilities (see, hear, move and intellectual) and number of disabilities to the dataset Sample of respondents for Full Questionnaire at IBGE 2010 Census. In this work, by using stereotype ordinal logistic model with ordinal response, it was possible to improve the fit quality, to be compared with binary response logistic model. By using ordinal response merged the disability risk for different severity degree and amount of deficiencies. Mains conclusions were: i)the model required a smaller number of explanatory variables was intellectual or mental and greater number was disabilities; ii) the most sensitive adjust was using stereotype ordinal logistic; iii) different disabilities aren´t homogenous as the different predictor variables, and finally; iv) higher incidence of risks were noted visual disability, living in the northeast, female, age 80, yellow race, instruction level until incomplete fundamental, works production form their own consumption and high number of children.

The paper investigates into the intricacies of semiconductor manufacturing, a highly complex process entailing a wide array of subprocesses and diverse equipment. Semiconductors are miniaturized integrated circuits comprising numerous components. The semiconductor manufacturing process begins with the thin disc-shaped silicon wafers. On each wafer, up to thousands of identical chips can be prepared depending upon the diameter of the wafer to build up the circuits layer by layer in a wafer fab. The size of the semiconductors requires a high number of units to be produced, thus necessitating a large amount of data to control for improving the semiconductor manufacturing process. Therefore, the collection and analysis of the equipment data, process data, and machine history data throughout the manufacturing process are required to diagnose faults, monitor the process, and manage the manufacturing process effectively. This research is focused on improving the semiconductor manufacturing process through a rigorous analysis of collected manufacturing process data, employing statistical process control (SPC), data mining techniques, and data-driven decision models. The project's primary objective is to increase the manufacturing process stability and productivity by utilizing the latest data-driven technologies in the scientific community. A structured review was undertaken, exploring contemporary data-driven methodologies in semiconductor manufacturing process improvement, specifically pertaining to process capability, product yield rate, and process stability. This review accentuates a comprehensive evaluation of data-driven methodologies applicable to conventional semiconductor manufacturing facilities, aiming to drive substantial process improvements. It features a detailed demonstration facilitating the selection of optimal semiconductor manufacturing processes to enhance overall operational performance. This study of process improvement in the semiconductor manufacturing steps through the application of data-driven methodologies will be effective in delivering advanced, real-time, and proactive control decisions throughout the manufacturing facilities. This endeavor is expected to promptly provide critical insights for enterprise manufacturing decision-makers to reduce manufacturing cycle time, improve the product yield rate, and increase the overall efficiency of the manufacturing process.

The construction of different roads, such as freeways, highways, major roads or minor roads must be accompanied by constant monitoring and evaluation of service delivery. Pavements are generally assessed by engineers in terms of the smoothness, surface condition, structural condition and surface safety. Pavement assessment is often conducted using the qualitative indices such as international roughness index (IRI), pavement condition index (PCI), structural condition index (SCI) and skid resistance value (SRV), which are used for smoothness assessment, surface condition assessment, structural condition assessment, and surface safety assessment, respectively. In this paper, Tehran-Qom Freeway in Iran has been selected as the case study and its smoothness and pavement surface conditions are assessed. At 2-km intervals, a 100-meter sample unit is selected in the slow-speed lane (totally, 118 sample units). In these sample units, the PCI is calculated after a visual inspection of the pavement and the recording of distresses. Then, in each sample unit, the average IRI is computed. The purpose of this study is to provide a method for estimating PCI based on IRI. The proposed theory was developed by Random Forest (RF), and Random Forest optimized by Genetic Algorithm (RF-GA) methods and these methods were validated using correlation coefficient (CC), scattered index (SI), and Willmott’s index of agreement (WI) criteria. The proposed method reduces costs, saves time and eliminates the safety risks.

On 9 March 2020, two cases of COVID-19 were reported in Burkina Faso. As of 10 April 2020, a total number of 484 cases (404 cases in the Kadiogo province) were reported nationwide. Real-time forecasts of COVID-19 are important to inform decision-making in the country. Here, we propose an approach that tests the performance of four models (Exponential Growth model, the Generalized Growth model (GGM), the Generalized Logistic Growth, and Richards Growth model) to select the model that best fit data and to generate short-term forecasting (5-, 10-, and 15-day forecasts from 11 to 25 April 2020) in Kadiogo, the epicenter of the outbreak. Using daily number of confirmed COVID-19 cases, the results suggests that GGM performed the best out of the 4 models. Overall, our GGM predictions suggested an average total number of cumulative cases of 514 (95% CI, 464–559), 629 (95% CI, 559–691), and 750 (95% CI, 661–840) between 11 to 15 April, 16 to 20 April, and 20 to 25 April 2020, respectively. COVID-19 in this province was best approximated by sub exponential growth rather than exponential or logistic growth. Current data suggest that COVID-19 cases would continue to increase over the next 15-days.

The log data generated during the operation of a software system contains information about the system, and using logs for anomaly detection can detect system failures in a timely manner. Most of the existing log anomaly detection methods are specific to a particular system, have cold start problems, and are sensitive to updates in log format. In this paper, we propose a log anomaly detection method LogBD based on pre-training model and domain adaptation, which uses the pre-training model BERT to learn the semantic information of logs, and can solve the problems caused by multiple meaning words and log statement updates. An anomaly detection method LogBD based on distance to determine anomalies is constructed based on domain adaptation, using TCN networks to extract common features of different system logs and map them to the same hypersphere space. Finally, experiments are conducted on two publicly available datasets to evaluate the method, and the experimental results show that the method can better solve the log instability problem and has some improvement in the cross-system log anomaly detection effect.