Stunting, during the Covid-19 pandemic, is increasingly becoming a big problem in the world, especially in poor and developing countries. Observational studies have shown that stunting is associated with poor nutrition, especially a plant-based diet, inflammation, caused by infection, enteric dysfunction, an environment with clean water, inadequate sanitation and hygiene (WASH), and endogenous inflammation associated with excess adiposity. This causes nutritional interventions to be often unsuccessful (Kemenkes RI, 2018).The government intervenes to reduce stunting to the target party, which is divided into two categories. The first category is specific nutrition intervention, namely monitoring children under five at the posyandu, giving immunizations, giving vitamin A, giving Supplementary Foods (PMT), and others. The second category is sensitive nutrition interventions, namely the provision of drinking water and proper sanitation, postnatal family planning (KB) services, providing information related to stunting, food social assistance, conditional cash assistance, and others. (KEMEN-PMK, 2018). WHO states, that the impact of stunting can be divided into short-term and long-term impacts. The short-term impacts are; increased incidence of morbidity and mortality; cognitive, motor, and verbal development in children is not optimal; and increased healthcare costs. While the long-term impact; Posture that is not optimal as an adult (shorter than usual); Increased risk of obesity and other diseases; The decline in reproductive health; Less than optimal learning capacity and performance during school years; and Low productivity and work capacity (Kemenkes RI, 2018). The nursing goal is to help people achieve quality, holistic health. Implementation of Modeling and Role Modeling Theory is an option in implementing nursing care for children with stunting. “Modeling” is gaining an understanding of the client’s world from the client’s perspective. That is to build a “model” of the client’s worldview. “Role‑Modeling” is based on the assumption that all humans want to interact with others, they want to carry out selected roles in society. Role-Modeling is using the client’s model of the world to plan interventions that meet his or her perceived needs, grow, develop and heal. Role-Modeling requires that we aim to build trust, promote a positive orientation and a sense of control, affirm strengths and set specific mutual goals.

Flooding is a prevalent natural disaster with both short and long-term social, economic, and infrastructure impacts. Changes in intensity and frequency of precipitation (including rain, snow, and rain on snow) events create challenges for the planning and management of resilient infrastructure and communities. While there is general acknowledgement that new infrastructure design should account for future climate change, no clear methods or actionable information is available to community planners and designers to ensure resilient design considering an uncertain climate future. This research used climate projections to drive high-resolution hydrology and flood models to evaluate social, economic, and infrastructure resilience for the Snohomish Watershed, WA, U.S.A. The proposed model chain has been calibrated and validated. Based on the established model chain, the peaks of precipitation and streamflows were found to shift from spring and summer to earlier winter season. The nonstationarity of peak discharges was discovered with more frequent and severe flood risks projected. The peak discharges were also projected to decrease for a certain period in the near future, which might be due to the reduced rain-on-snow events. This research was expected to provide a clear method for the incorporation of climate science in flood resilience analysis and to also provide actionable information relative to the frequency and intensity of future precipitation events.

An open source computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solver has been incorporated into the WindNinja modeling framework widely used by wildland fire managers as well as researchers and practitioners in other fields, such as wind energy, wind erosion, and search and rescue. Here we describe incorporation of the CFD solver and evaluate its performance compared to the conservation of mass (COM) solver in WindNinja and previously published large-eddy simulations (LES) for three field campaigns conducted over isolated terrain obstacles of varying terrain complexity: Askervein Hill, Bolund Hill, and Big Southern Butte. We also compare the effects of two important model settings in the CFD solver and provide guidance on model sensitivity to these settings. Additionally, we investigate the computational mesh and difficulties regarding terrain representation. Two important findings from this work are: (1) the choice of discretization scheme for advection has a significantly larger effect on the simulated winds than the choice of turbulence model and (2) CFD solver predictions are significantly better than the COM solver predictions at windward and lee side observation locations, but no difference was found in predicted speed-up at ridgetop locations between the two solvers.

The term Concept has been a prominent part of investigations in psychology and neurobiology where, mostly, it is mathematically or theoretically represented. The Concepts are also studied computationally through their symbolic, distributed and hybrid representations. The majority of these approaches focused on addressing concrete concepts notion, but the view of the abstract concept is rarely explored. Moreover, most computational approaches have a predefined structure or configurations. The proposed method, Regulated Activation Network (RAN), has an evolving topology and learns representations of Abstract Concepts by exploiting the geometrical view of Concepts, without supervision. In the article, the IRIS data was used to demonstrate: the RAN's modeling; flexibility in concept identifier choice; and deep hierarchy generation. Data from IoT's Human Activity Recognition problem is used to show automatic identification of alike classes as abstract concepts. The evaluation of RAN with 8 UCI benchmarks and the comparisons with 5 Machine Learning models establishes the RANs credibility as a classifier. The classification operation also proved the RAN's hypothesis of abstract concept representation. The experiments demonstrate the RANs ability to simulate psychological processes (like concept creation and learning) and carry out effective classification irrespective of training data size.

This paper presents the monitoring of an extremely eroding phenomenon (ravine) near Ciurila, Cluj County, Romania, using UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) and GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) technologies, taking into account the objectives of SDG 15 of the UN resolution, which refers to life on earth. In this sense, the results of a monitoring through sustainable and non-invasive technologies are presented, follo-wing three cycles of observations, carried out between June 2019 and April 2021.The paper aims to present the advantages and limitations of such a study , as well as the importance of monitoring erosion phenomena (in this case, ravines) for the ecosystem, but also for the nearby inhabitants. Software and technologies are used that allow the automatic calculation of the volume of the ravine and the displacements between the different measurement cycles, which allows obtaining objective conclusions and pro-posing further measures.

As of not long ago, understanding the administrative conduct of cells has been sought after through autonomous investigation of the transcriptome or the proteome. In view of the focal creed, it was commonly accepted that there exist an immediate correspondence between mRNA records and produced protein articulations. In any case, late examinations have demonstrated that the relationship among's mRNA and Protein articulations can be low because of different factors, for example, unique half lives and post record apparatus. In this manner, a joint investigation of the transcriptomic and proteomic information can give valuable experiences that may not be translated from singular examination of mRNA or protein articulations. This article audits the current significant methodologies for joint investigation of transcriptomic and proteomic information. We order the various methodologies into eight primary classes dependent on the underlying calculation and last investigation objective. We further present analogies with different spaces and talk about the current exploration issues around there.

Megacities are complex systems facing the challenges of overpopulation, poor urban design and planning, poor mobility and public transport, poor governance, climate change issues, poor sewerage and water infrastructure, waste and health issues, and unemployment. Smart cities have emerged to address these challenges by making the best use of space and resources for the benefit of citizens. A smart city model views the city as a complex adaptive system consisting of services, resources, and citizens that learn through interaction and change in both the spatial and temporal domains. The characteristics of dynamic development and complexity are key issues for city planners that require a new systematic and modeling approach. Multiscale modeling (MM) is an approach that can be used to better understand complex adaptive systems. The MM aims to solve complex problems at different scales, i.e., micro, meso, and macro, to improve system efficiency and mitigate computational complexity and cost. In this paper, we present an overview of MM in smart cities. First, this study discusses megacities, their current challenges, and their emergence to smart cities. Then, we discuss the need of MM in smart cities and its emerging applications. Finally, the study highlights current challenges and future directions related to MM in smart cities, which provide a roadmap for the optimized operation of smart city systems.

Using recent developments in econometrics and computational statistics we consider the estimation of the instantaneous rate of asset return process when the underlying Data Generating Mechanism (DGM) is an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, driven by fractional noise, and sampled at fixed intervals of length h. To address the problem we adopt throughout the paper an exact discretization approach. This enable us to exploit the fact that a flow sampling scheme arises naturally when observing the DGM. For, while the instantaneous rate of return process is unobservable at points in time, its time integral over successive observations is observable since it equals the increment of log-prices. Exact discretization delivers an ARIMA(1,1,1) model for log-prices with a fractional driving noise. Building on the resulting exact discretization formulae and covariance function, a new Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme is proposed and we examine the properties of both the time and frequency domain likelihoods / posteriors through Monte Carlo. For the exact discrete model we adopt a general sampling interval of length h. This allow us to determine the optimal choice of h independent of the sample size. An empirical application using high frequency stock price data is presented showing the relevance of aggregation over time issues in modelling asset prices.

Integrated Model of Distributed Systems is used for modeling and verification. In formalism, the distributed system is modeled as a collection of server states and agent messages. The evolution of the system takes the form of actions that transform the global system configuration (states and messages) into a new configuration. Formalism is used in the Dedan verification environment for finding different kinds of deadlocks: communication deadlocks in the server view and resource deadlocks in the agent view. For other purposes, a conversion has been developed to equivalent models: to Petri nets for structural analysis and do Distributed Autonomous and Asynchronous Automata (DA3) for easy graphical modeling in terms of system components. In addition, it is possible to simulate a verified system on distributed components in DA3. The automata have two forms: Server-DA3 (S-DA3) for the server view and Agent-DA3 (A-DA3) for the agent view. DA3 formalism is compared to other concepts of distributed automata known from the literature.

OBJECTIVE: Although 3D-printed anatomic models are not new to medicine, the high costs and lengthy production times entailed have limited their application. Our goal was developing a new and less costly 3D modeling method to depict organ-tumor relations at faster printing speeds. METHODS: We have devised a method of 3D modeling using DICOM images. Coordinates are extracted at a specified interval, connecting them to create mesh-work replicas. Adjacent constructs are depicted by density variations, showing anatomic targets (ie, tumors) in contrasting color. RESULTS: An array of organ solid-tumor models were printed via Fused Deposition Modeling 3D printer at significantly less cost ($0.05/cm3) and time expenditure (1.73 min/cm3; both, p<.001). Printed models helped promote visual appreciation of organ-tumor anatomy and adjacent tissues. Our mesh-work 3D thyroidal prototype reproduced glangular size/contour and tumor location, readily approximating the surgical specimen. CONCLUSIONS: This newly devised mesh-type 3D printing method may facilitate anatomic modeling for personalized care and improve patient awareness during informed surgical consent.

The capability to avoid other air traffic is a fundamental component of the layered conflict management system to ensure safe and efficient operations in the National Airspace System. The evaluation of systems designed to mitigate the risk of midair collisions of manned aircraft are based on large-scale modeling and simulation efforts and a quantitative volume defined as a near midair collision (NMAC). Since midair collisions are difficult to observe in simulation and are inherently rare events, basing evaluations on NMAC enables a more robust statistical analysis. However, an NMAC and its underlying assumptions for assessing close encounters with manned aircraft do not adequately consider the different characteristics of smaller UAS-only encounters. The primary contribution of this paper is to explore quantitative criteria to use when simulating two or more smaller UASs in sufficiently close proximity that a midair collision might reasonably occur and without any mitigations to reduce the likelihood of a midair collision. The criteria assumes a historically motivated upper bound for the collision likelihood and subsequently identify the smallest possible NMAC analogs. We also demonstrate the NMAC analogs can be used to support modeling and simulation activities.

In this paper we propose a computational framework that merges mechanistic modeling with deep neural networks obeying the Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML) standard. Over the last 20 years, the systems biology community has developed a large number of mechanistic models in SBML that are currently stored in public databases. With the proposed framework, existing SBML mechanistic models may be upgraded to hybrid systems through the incorporation of deep neural networks into the model core, using a freely available python tool. The so-formed hybrid mechanistic/neural network models are trained with a deep learning algorithm based on the adaptive moment estimation method (ADAM), stochastic regularization and semidirect sensitivity equations. The trained hybrid models are encoded in SBML and stored back in model databases, where they can be further analyzed as regular SBML models. The application of this approach is illustrated with three well-known case studies: the threonine synthesis model in Escherichia coli, the P58IPK signal transduction model, and the Yeast glycolytic oscillations model. The proposed framework is expected to greatly facilitate the widespread use of hybrid modeling techniques for systems biology applications.

Current bridge inspection practices rely on paper-based data acquisition, digitization, and multiple conversions in between incompatible formats to facilitate data exchange. This practice is time-consuming, error-prone, cumbersome, and leads to information loss. One aim for future inspection procedures is to have a fully digitized workflow that achieves loss-free data exchange, which lowers costs and offers higher efficiency. On the one hand, existing studies proposed methods to automatize data acquisition and visualization for inspections. These studies lack an open standard to make the gathered data available for other processes. On the other hand, several studies discuss data structures for exchanging damage information through out different stakeholders. However, those studies do not cover the process of automatic data acquisition and transfer. This study focused on a framework that incorporates automatic damage data acquisition, transfer, and a damage information model for data exchange. This enables inspectors to use damage data for subsequent analyses and simulations. The proposed framework shows the potentials for a comprehensive damage information model and related (semi-)automatic data acquisition and processing.

We applied a generalized SEIR epidemiological model to the recent SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in the world, with a focus on Italy and its Lombardia, Piemonte, and Veneto regions. We focus on the application of a stochastic approach in fitting the model numerous parameters using a Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) solver, to improve the reliability of predictions in the medium term (30 days). We analyze the official data and the predicted evolution of the epidemic in the Italian regions, and we compare the results with data and predictions of Spain and South Korea. We link the model equations to the changes in people’s mobility, with reference to Google’s COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports. We discuss the effectiveness of policies taken by different regions and countries and how they have an impact on past and future infection scenarios.

As of today, 20 disease modifying drugs (DMD) have been approved for the treatment of relapsing multiple sclerosis (MS) and, based on their efficacy, they can be grouped into moderate-efficacy DMDs and high-efficacy DMDs. The choice of the drug mostly relies on the judgement and experience of neurologists and the evaluation of therapeutic response can only be obtained by monitoring clinical and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) status during follow up. In an era where therapies are focused on personalization, the aim of this study is to develop a modeling infrastructure to predict the evolution of relapsing MS and the response to treatments. We built a computational modeling infrastructure named UISS (Universal Immune System Simulator) able to simulate the main features and dynamics of the immune system activities. We extended UISS to simulate all the underlying MS pathogenesis and its interaction with the host immune system. This simulator is a multi-scale, multi-organ, agent based simulator with an attached module capable of simulating the dynamics of specific biological pathways at the molecular level. We simulated six MS patients with different relapsing-remitting courses. These patients were characterized on the basis of their age, sex, presence of oligoclonal bands, therapy and MRI lesion load at onset. The simulator framework is made freely available and can be used following the links provided in the availability section. Even though the model can be further personalized employing immunological parameters and genetic information, based on the available data we generated a few simulation scenarios for each patient, including those who matched the real clinical and MRI history. Moreover, for two patients, the simulator anticipated the timing of subsequent relapses, which really occurred, suggesting that UISS may have the potential to assist MS specialists in predicting the course of the disease and the response to treatment.

It has been known for nearly over 150 years that fatigue life data exhibits a considerable amount of variability. Furthermore, statistically modeling fatigue life adequately is challenging. Different empirical approaches have been used, each of which has merit; however, none is appropriate universally. Even when a sufficiently robust database exists, the scatter in the fatigue lives may be extremely large and difficult to characterize. The complications in empirical modeling are exacerbated for long life estimation when experimental observations are rare. The purpose of this work is to review traditional and more modern empirically based methodologies for estimating the cumulative distribution functions for fatigue life, given an applied load. To assess the applicability of the methods confidence bounds will be estimated. The analyses will be performed on an historic set of data for annealed aluminum wire tested in reverse torsion fatigue. These data are available in publications. It is recommended that a time dependent distribution function that is an based on principles of reliability that can be generalized for a variety of modeling applications should be considered for fatigue life estimation.

The aim of this paper is to examine the beneficial impact of feedback information in the dynamics of production-inventory control systems. Two production-inventory control system models are analyzed: APIOBPCS and 2APIOBPCS models. The simulation-based experiment designs were conducted by using the state-space equations of the two models. The bullwhip effect as measured by the variance ratio between the order rate and the consumption rate, and inventory responsiveness as measured by the Integral of Absolute Error between the actual and the target levels of inventory, are two metrics used to evaluate the performance of the production-inventory control system in response to a random customer demand. To ensure that both models work under optimal performance, multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) is employed to address the problem of tuning the controller’s parameters. The simulation results show the 2APIOBPCS model outperforms the APIOBPCS model at achieving the desired bullwhip effect and being able to provide better inventory responsiveness. The improvement in the inventory responsiveness becomes more significant when the system operates under mismatched lead time and/or an initial condition.

Helmeted hornbill (Rhinoplax vigil) is a protected wildlife in Indonesia according to enactment no. 5, 1999 about Conservation of Natural Resources and its Ecosystems and Government Regulation no. 9, 1999 about plant and wildlife preservation. Helmeted Hornbill habitats spread in five country regions: Myanmar, Thailand, Malaysia (Malayan Peninsula and Serawak), Brunei, and Indonesia (Sumatra and Borneo). Silokek Geopark which located in Sijunjung Regency, West Sumatra Province, Indonesia is an identified location of Helmeted Hornbill habitat existence. Beside its uniqueness in physics, this bird also have an ecological function as seed dispersal in nature. The utilization of Remote Sensing (RS) technology and and Geographic Information System (GIS) is highly useful in identification the Helmeted Hornbill habitat distribution in this research. Geographic dateset used in this research are Landsat OLI 8 imagery, Shuttle Radar Topographic Model (SRTM), Coordinate points of Helmeted Hornbill existence and location assesment, and other dataset related to administration boundary in Silokek Geopark. This research aims to find conservation priority zone of Helmeted Hornbill in Silokek Geopark. By utilizing Maximun Entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm with finding points and location assessment, we can determine the distribution of Helmeted Hornbill habitat in Silokek Geopark based on habitat likeness. This research produces the model of conservation priority zones in geopark silokek which are distributed in hilly protected forest area and the distributions are concentrated in the center and noth east part of our researc area. This model is highly influenced by forest texture (25.7%), distance of patches (24.3%), and distance of settlement.

Constitutive models for plastic deformation of metals are typically based on flow rules determining the transition from elastic to plastic response of a material as function of the applied mechanical load. These flow rules are commonly formulated as a yield function, based on the equivalent stress and the yield strength of the material, and its derivatives. In this work, a novel mathematical formulation is developed that allows the efficient use of machine learning algorithms describing the elastic-plastic deformation of a solid under arbitrary mechanical loads and that can replace the standard yield functions with more flexible algorithms. By exploiting basic physical principles of elastic-plastic deformation, the dimensionality of the problem is reduced without loss of generality. The data-oriented approach inherently offers a great flexibility to handle different kinds of material anisotropy without the need for explicitly calculating a large number of model parameters. The applicability of this formulation in finite element analysis is demonstrated, and the results are compared to formulations based on Hill-like anisotropic plasticity as reference model. In future applications, the machine learning algorithm can be trained by hybrid experimental and numerical data, as for example obtained from fundamental micromechanical simulations based on crystal plasticity models. In this way, data-oriented constitutive modeling will also provide a new way to homogenize numerical results in a scale-bridging approach.

Force reduction is one of the most important benefit of applying ultrasonic vibration on milling. However, most of studies so far are limited to experimental investigation. In the current study, an analytical predictive model on cutting forces in ultrasonic vibration-assisted milling is proposed. The three types of tool-workpiece criteria are considered based on the instantaneous position and velocity of tool center. Type I criterion indicates that there is no contact if the instantaneous velocity is opposite to tool rotation direction. Type II criterion checks whether the vibration displacement is larger than the instantaneous uncut chip thickness. Type III criterion considers the overlaps between current and previous tool paths due to vibration. If none of these criteria is satisfied, milling forces are nonzero. Then the calculation is performed by transforming milling and tool geometry configuration to orthogonal cutting at each instant. The orthogonal cutting forces are predicted through the exhaustive search of shear angle and calculation of shear flow stress on tool-chip interface. The axial force is then calculated based on tool geometry, and the milling forces in feed, cutting, and axial directions are calculated after coordinate transformation. The proposed predictive force model in ultrasonic vibration-assisted milling is validated through comparison to experimental measurements on Aluminum alloy 2A12. The predicted values are able to match the measured milling forces with high accuracy of average difference of 13.6% in feed direction and 13.8% in cutting direction.

Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate five glacierized river basins that are global in coverage and vary in climate. The river basins included the Narayani (Nepal), Vakhsh (Central Asia), Rhone (Switzerland), Mendoza (Central Andes, Argentina), and Central Dry Andes (Chile) with a total area of 85,000 km2. A modified SWAT snow algorithm was applied in order to consider spatial variation of associated snow melt /accumulation by elevation band across each subbasin. In the previous studies, melt rates varied as a function of elevation resulting from an air temperature gradient while the snow parameters were constant throughout the entire basin. A major improvement of the new snow algorithm is separating the glaciers from seasonal snow based on their characteristics. Two SWAT snow algorithms were evaluated in simulation of monthly runoff from glaciered watershed: 1) the snow parameters are lumped (i.e. constant throughout the entire basin) and 2) the snow parameters are spatially variable based on elevation band-subbasin (i.e. modified snow algorithm). Applying the distributed SWAT snow algorithm improved the model performance in simulation of monthly runoff with snow-glacial regime, so that mean RSR decreased to 0.49 from 0.55 and NSE increased to 0.75 from 0.69. Improvement of model performance was negligible in simulation of monthly runoff from the basins with monsoon runoff regime.

The evolution of some epidemics, as influenza, shows common patterns both in different regions and from year to year. On the contrary, epidemics like the novel COVID-19 show quite heterogeneous dynamics and are extremely susceptible to the measures taken to mitigate their spread. In this paper we propose empirical dynamic modeling to predict the evolution of influenza in Spain’s regions. It is a non-parametric method that looks into the past for coincidences with the present to make the forecasts. Here we extend the method to predict the evolution of other epidemics at any other starting territory and we test also this procedure with Spanish COVID-19 data. We finally build influenza and COVID-19 networks to check possible coincidences in the geographical distribution of both diseases. With this, we grasp the uniqueness of the geographical dynamics of COVID-19.

The early-mid Paleocene Farewell Formation is stratigraphically distributed across the southern Taranaki Basin (STB) which is also encountered within the Maui Gas Field. Using available 3D seismic and well log data, a challenging task to delineate the spatial distribution and geobody patterns of the potential reservoir sands of the formation was performed. Object based modeling coupled with sequential indicator simulation were used to analyze the spatial distribution of facies configuration and a conceptual model was developed based on the outputs from the structurally- modeled grids. The facies modeling followed a hierarchical object-based mechanism which was set to perform with constraints like channel geometry and heterogeneity within the formation. The resultant 3D geobody model showed that the distributary channels, mainly braided geobodies flowed from northeast cutting through several regional normal-fault systems to the southwest. Overbank facies was adhered to the fringe of the channels whereas the floodplain facies was at the periphery of the model. Meandering channel-sand facies were mostly observed at the center of the model flowing in a more random manner, occupying major flow directions of northwest to southwest and southeast to northwest within the model.

The implementation of Boolean functions using Nano crossbar- based switching lattices has been suggested as a substitute for conventional CMOS-based approaches in digital circuits . This alternative may satisfy the needs of future electronic designs, con- sidering the expected end of Moore’s law. This study introduces CVM, a Crossbar-based circuit Verification through Modeling tech- nique

: Extra- and intra-cellular activity occurs under the direction of numerous inter-molecular interactions, and in any tissue or cell, molecules are densely packed, thus promoting those molecular interactions. Galectins and chemokines, the focus of this review, are small, protein effector molecules that mediate various cellular functions, in particular cell adhesion and migration, as well as cell signaling/activation. In the past, researchers have reported that combinations of these (and other) effector molecules act separately, yet sometimes in concert, but nevertheless physically apart and via their individual cell receptors. This view that each effector molecule functions independently of the other limits our thinking about functional versatility and cooperation, and, in turn, ignores the prospect of physiologically important inter-molecular interactions, especially when both molecules are present or co-expressed in the same cellular environment. This review is focused on such protein-protein interactions with chemokines and galectins, their homo- and hetero-oligomeric structures that they can form, and the functional consequences of those paired interactions.

In this study we sought to investigate the impact of urbanization, presence of concrete river bottom, and nutrient pollution on microbial communities along the L.A. River. Six molecular markers were evaluated for identification of bacteria, plants, fungi, fish, and invertebrates in 90 samples. PCA (principal components analysis) was used with PAM (partitioning around medoids) clustering to reveal community structure and an NB (Negative binomial) model in DESeq2 was used for differential abundance analysis. PCA and factor analysis exposed the main axes of variation but were sensitive to outliers. Differential abundance of Proteobacteria was associated with soft bottom sites, and there was an apparent balance in the abundance of organisms responsible for nitrogen cycling. Nitrogen cycling was explained by differential abundance of ammonia oxidizing archaea, the complete ammonia oxidizers Nitrospira sp., nitrate reducing bacteria Marmoricola sp., and nitrogen fixing bacteria Devosia sp. which were differentially abundant at soft-bottom sites (p adj &lt; 0.002). In contrast, differential abundance of several Cyanobacteria and other anoxygenic phototrophs was associated with the concrete bottom sites, which suggested the accumulation of excess nitrogen. The soft bottom sites tended to be represented by differential abundance of aerobes, whereas the concrete-associated species tended to be alkaliphilic, saliniphilic, calciphilic, sulfate dependent, and anaerobic. In Glendale Narrows, downstream from multiple water reclamation plants, there were differential abundance of cyanobacteria and algae, however indicator species for low nutrient environments and ammonia-abundance were also present. There was differential abundance of ascomycetes associated with Arroyo Seco and a differential abundance of Scenedesmaceae green algae and cyanobacteria in Maywood, in the analysis which compared suburban with urban river communities. The proportion of Ascomycota to Basidiomycota within the LA River differed from the expected proportion based on published worldwide freshwater and river 18S data; the shift in community structure was most likely associated with the extremes of urbanization. This study indicates that extreme urbanization can result in overrepresentation of cyanobacterial species that could cause reductions in water quality and safety.

Introduction. Musculoskeletal disorders related to work might follow with a cumulative effect during working life. We aimed to develop a new model to allow to compare the accuracy of duration of work and intensity/frequency associations in application to severe knee pain. Methods. The CONSTANCES cohort is used with data from n=66553 subjects who were working at inclusion and coded. From a biomechanical job exposure matrix “JEM Constances”, intensity/frequency of heavy lifting and kneeling/squatting were used and applied to the work history in comparison to severe knee pain. An innovative model was developed and evaluated, allowing to compare the accuracy of duration of work and intensity/frequency associations. Results. The mean age is 49 years at inception with 46 percent of women. The G model developed was slightly better than regular models. In men, odds ratios of the highest quartile for the duration and low intensity were not significant for both exposures, whereas intensity/duration were for every duration. Results in women were less interpretable. Conclusion. Though increased duration increased strength of association with severe knee pain, intensity/frequency were important predictors among men. Exposure estimation along working history should have emphasis on such parameters, though other outcomes should be studied such as women.

Tsunami modeling and simulation has changed in the past few years more than it had in decades, especially so with respect to coastal inundation. Among other things, this change is supported by the approaching era of exa-scale computing, whether via GPU or more likely forms of hybrid computing whose presence is growing across the geosciences. For reasons identified across this review, exa-scale computing efforts will impact the on-shore, highly turbulent r\'egime to higher degree than the 2D shallow water equations used to model tsunami propagation in the open ocean. This short review describes the different approaches to tsunami modeling from generation to impact and underlines the limits of each model based on the flow r\'egime. Moreover, from the perspective of a future comprehensive multi-scale modeling infrastructure to simulate a full tsunami, we underline the current challenges associated with this approach and review the few efforts that are currently underway to achieve this goal. A table of existing tsunami software packages is provided along with an open Github repository to allow developers and model users to update the table with additional models as they are published and help with model discoverability.

The article presents the Base Point Split (BPSplit) algorithm for generating a polygon skeleton based on sets of vector data describing lakes and rivers. A key feature of the BPSplit algorithm is that it is dependent on base points representing the source or mouth of a river or a stream. The input values of base points determine the shape of the resulting skeleton. Various skeletons can be generated with the use of different base points. Base points are applied to divide polygon boundaries into segments. Segmentation supports the selection of TIN edges inside polygons. The midpoints of selected TIN edges constitute a basis for generating a skeleton. The algorithm handles polygons with numerous holes, and it accounts for all holes. This article proposes a method for modifying a complex skeleton with numerous holes. In the discussed approach, skeleton edges that do not meet the preset criteria (e.g. that the skeleton is to be located between holes in the center of the polygon), are automatically removed. A simple algorithm for smoothing zigzag lines was proposed.

Imagination is more important than knowledge, but if intellect does not provide the needed logical structures, capacities for envisioning new possibilities are overly constrained. The sustainability problems we face today cannot be solved with the same kind of thinking that created them, but clarity on what counts as a new kind of thinking is sorely lacking. This article proposes methodical, model-based ways of heeding Bateson's warning about the negative consequences for the ecology of mind that follow from ignoring the contexts of relationships. Informed by S. L. Star's sense of boundary objects, a sequence of increasingly complex logical types distinguishes and interconnects qualitatively different kinds of thinking in ways that liberate imaginative new possibilities for life. The economy of thought instantiated at each level of complexity is only as meaningful, useful, beautiful, ethical, and efficient as the standards informing local adaptive improvisations. Standards mediating the general and specific, global and local, universally transcendent and embodied particulars enable meaningful negotiations, agreements, and communications. Attending to the differences between levels of discourse sets up new possibilities for creative and imaginative entrepreneurial approaches to viable, feasible, and desirable goals for measuring and managing sustainable development.

The sun bear is conservation mammal in Indonesia. The ecological problems as conflict among mammals and human often happen around wildlife, the one of the case is the conflict between sun bear (helarctos malayanus) with human. In Pasaman where around the anthropogenic landscape is bounded by natural forest as sun bear habitat. In this decade, the story has recorded about ±16 incidents. The aim of this research is to geospatial modeling the area of potential conflict between sun bear- human. The method in this research is to use natural logarithmic and regression logistic. The tool is geographical information system and maximum entropy. The result of this research, there has found the distribute energy each variable landscape ecosystem. The statistical model of the potential conflict it has spread on landscape ecosystem. The average value of AUC prediction in this model is at number of 0.91. The variable contribution which affect are forest edge at number of 39.2%, the alternative food (plantation) at number of 31.4%, and forest fragmentation at number of 16.9%.

The paper presents the author’ original modification of the residual method in order to construct an efficient tool for assessing the condition of photovoltaic cells, in particular – panels made of amorphous cells which are characterized by significant random operation parameter changes. The solution constructed has been verified through experiments, which show the usefulness of the proposed methodology as it allows to minimize the risk of obtaining false diagnostic information in the process of assessing the condition of photovoltaic panels.

Understanding influences of multiple stressors across the landscape on aquatic biota is important for conservation, as it allows for an understanding of spatial patterns and informs stakeholders of significant conservation value. Data exists for land use/landcover (LULC) and other physicochemical components of the landscape throughout the Appalachian region yet biological data is sparse. This dearth of biological data relative to LULC and physicochemical data creates difficulties in making informed management and conservation decisions across large landscapes. At the HUC12 watershed scale we sought to create a single score for both abiotic and biotic values throughout the central and southern Appalachian region. We used boosted regression trees (BRT) to model biological responses (fish and aquatic macroinvertebrate variables) to abiotic variables. Variance explained by BRT models ranged from 62-94%. We categorized both predictor and response variables into themes and targets respectively to better understand large scale patterns on the landscape that influence biological condition of streams. We combined predicted values for a suite of response variables from BRT models to create a single watershed score for aquatic macroinvertebrates and fish. Regional models were developed for fish but we were unable to develop regional models for aquatic macroinvertebrates due to the low number of sample sites. There was strong correlation between regional and global watershed scores for fish models but not between fish and aquatic macroinvertebrate models. Use of such multimetric scores can inform managers, NGOs, and private land owners regarding land use practices; thereby contributing to largescale landscape scale conservation efforts.

Current numerical methods for simulating biophysical processes in aquatic environments are typically constructed in a grid-based Eulerian framework or as an individual-based model in a particle-based Lagrangian framework. Often, the biogeochemical processes and physical (hydrodynamic) processes occur at different time and space scales, and changes in biological processes do not affect the hydrodynamic conditions. Therefore, it is possible to develop an alternative strategy to grid-based approaches for linking hydrodynamic and biogeochemical models that can significantly improve computational efficiency for this type of linked biophysical model. In this work, we utilize a new technique which links hydrodynamic effects and biological processes through a property-carrying particle model (PCPM) in a Lagrangian/Eulerian framework. The model is tested in idealized cases and its utility is demonstrated in a practical application to Sandusky Bay. Results show the integration of Lagrangian and Eulerian approaches allows for a natural coupling of mass transport (represented by particle movements and random walk) and biological processes in water columns which is described by a nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton-detritus (NPZD) biological model. This method is far more efficient than traditional tracer based Eulerian biophysical models for 3-D simulation, particularly for a large domain and/or ensemble simulations.

Currently, narrowband Power line communication (PLC) is considered as an attractive communication system in smart grid environments for applications such as advanced metering infrastructure (AMI). In this paper, we will present a comprehensive comparison and analysis in time and frequency domain of noise measured in China and Italy. In addition, impulsive noise in these two countries are mainly analyzed and modeled using two probability based models, Middleton Class A (MCA) model and \(\alpha\) stable distribution model. The results prove that noise measured in China is rich in impulsive noise, and can be modeled well by \(\alpha\) stable distribution model, while noise measured in Italy has less impulsive noise, and can be better modeled by MCA model.

Large-scale hydrological modeling in China is challenging given the sparse meteorological stations and large uncertainties associated with atmospheric forcing data.Here we introduce the development and use of the China Meteorological Assimilation Driving Datasets for the SWAT model (CMADS) in the Heihe River Basin(HRB) for improving hydrologic modeling, by leveraging the datasets from the China Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System (CLDAS)(including climate data from nearly 40000 area encryption stations, 2700 national automatic weather stations, FengYun (FY) 2 satellite and radar stations). CMADS uses the Space Time Multiscale Analysis System (STMAS) to fuse data based on ECWMF ambient field and ensure data accuracy. In addition, compared with CLDAS, CMADS includes relative humidity and climate data of varied resolutions to drive hydrological models such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Here, we compared climate data from CMADS, Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and traditional weather station (TWS) climate forcing data and evaluatedtheir applicability for driving large scale hydrologic modeling with SWAT. In general, CMADS has higher accuracy than CFRS when evaluated against observations at TWS; CMADS also provides spatially continuous climate field to drive distributed hydrologic models, which is an important advantage over TWS climate data, particular in regions with sparse weather stations. Therefore, SWAT model simulations driven with CMADS and TWS achieved similar performances in terms of monthly and daily stream flow simulations, and both of them outperformed CFRS. For example, for the three hydrological stations (Ying Luoxia, Qilian Mountain, and ZhaMasheke) in the HRB at the monthly and daily Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranges of 0.75-0.95 and 0.58-0.78, respectively, which are much higher than corresponding efficiency statistics achieved with CFSR (monthly: 0.32-0.49 and daily: 0.26 – 0.45). The CMADS dataset is available free of charge and is expected to a valuable addition to the existing climate reanalysis datasets for deriving distributed hydrologic modeling in China and other countries in East Asia.

The “Crisis of Reproducibility” has received considerable attention both within the scientific community and without. While factors associated with scientific culture and practical practice are most often invoked, I propose that the Crisis of Reproducibility is ultimately a failure of generalization with a fundamental scientific basis in the methods used for biomedical research. The Denominator Problem describes how limitations intrinsic to the two primary approaches of biomedical research, clinical studies and pre-clinical experimental biology, lead to an inability to effectively characterize the full extent of biological heterogeneity, which compromises the task of generalizing acquired knowledge. Drawing on the example of the unifying role of theory in the physical sciences, I propose that multi-scale mathematical and dynamic computational models, when mapped to the modular structure of biological systems, can serve a unifying role as formal representations of what is conserved and similar from one biological context to another. This ability to explicitly describe the generation of heterogeneity from similarity addresses the Denominator Problem and provides a scientific response to the Crisis of Reproducibility.

It is crucial to immediately curb the spread of a disease once an outbreak is identified in a pandemic. An agent based simulator will enable the policymakers to evaluate the effectiveness of different hypothetical strategies and policies with a higher level of granularity. This will allow them to identify the vulnerabilities and asses the threat level more effectively, which in turn can be used to build resilience within the community against a pandemic. This study proposes a PanDemic SIMulator (PDSIM ) which is capable of modeling complex environments while simulating realistic human motion patterns. The ability of PDSIM to track the infection propagation patterns, contact paths, places visited, characteristics of people, vaccination, and testing information of the population, allows the user to check the efficacy of different containment strategies and testing protocols. The results obtained based on the case studies of Covid-19 are used to validate the proposed model. However, it is highly extendable to all pandemics in general, enabling robust planning for more sustainable communities.

In the field of modeling social systems, the use of agent-based models (AM) has become a powerful tool for understanding processes occurring in society, in particular, for studying the spread of infections among the population. The agent model is based on a synthetic population consisting of agents, their interactions and sometimes the territory in which the interaction occurs. The choice of an appropriate method for creating such artificial populations and the selection of parameters becomes a key issue affecting the realism of the model and its ability to reflect real-world scenarios. This article delves into the interplay between agent-based modeling, synthetic population construction, and parameter selection, offering our insight into the complex process of modeling infectious disease dynamics. The review concludes with an exploration of extending the Covasim model [1] to experiments in computational epidemiology. Covasim, a dynamic transmission modeling tool, is known for its ability to adapt to different scenarios and offers predictive information critical for managing epidemiological situations. The Covasim model could include improvements to better simulate real-world epidemic conditions, including a revised transmission strategy to account for accumulation through daily contacts. In addition, we propose to add a module for intercity travel and a visualization package that will significantly expand the functionality of Covasim. These improvements make Covasim a more versatile and efficient tool for modeling and analyzing epidemic processes.

When implementing a control system for a ground-based unmanned vehicle (UV) used in agri-culture, an important factor is the low cost of the equipment used, so the use of cameras without lidars for navigation, avoiding obstacles, and ensuring movement safety seems promising. En-suring the safety of movement of UV consists of developing methods and means that make it possible to bypass static and dynamic obstacles and make an emergency stop if it is impossible to bypass. The article describes methods and software that provide detection of objects surrounding the UV through the use of the YOLOv8 neural network, space free for movement through the use of se-mantic segmentation with the MobileNetV3 network architecture, tools for combining several data sources to build a local perception map, as well as linear and angular speed of the UV based on calculating the optimal direction of movement for avoiding obstacles. Testing of the developed methods and software was realized in the Webots simulation environment. Software is developed with ROS2.

Background: Previous papers have developed a statistical mechanics of neocortical interactions (SMNI) fit to short-term memory and EEG data (Ingber, 2018). Adaptive Simulated Annealing (ASA) was used for all fits to data. A numerical path-integral for quantum systems, qPATHINT, was used. Objective: The quantum path-integral for Calcium ions was used to derive a closed-form analytic solution at arbitrary time. The quantum effects is parameterized here, whereas the previous 2018 paper applied a nominal ratio of 1/2 to these effects. Method: Methods of mathematical-physics for optimization and for path integrals in classical and quantum spaces are used. The quantum path-integral is used to derive a closed-form analytic solution at arbitrary time, and is used to calculate interactions with classical-physics SMNI interactions among scales. Results: The mathematical-physics and computer parts of the study are successful, in that three cases with Subjects (blind to this author) after 1,000,000 visits to the cost function gave: Subject-07 = 0.04, Subject-08 = 0.55, and Subject-09 = 1.00. All other 9 Subjects gave 0.

In this paper, a regression model between neutron star crust-core pressure and the symmetry energy characteristics was estimated using the Akaike information criterion and the adjusted coefficient of determination Radj2. Based on the obtained regression function, the most probable value of the transition density, which should characterize the crust-core environment of the sought physical neutron star model, was determined. An anti-correlation was found between this transition density and the main characteristic of the symmetry energy, i.e., its slope L.

The present paper is aimed at presenting an updated review of prediction methods for the aerodynamic noise of ducted rotor-stator stages. Indeed, ducted rotating-blade technologies are in continuous evolution and increasingly used, for both aeronautical propulsion units, power generation and air conditioning systems. Different needs are faced, from the early design stage to the final definition of a machine. Fast-running, approximate analytical approaches and high-fidelity numerical simulations are considered as the best suited tools for each, respectively. Recent advances are discussed, with emphasis on their pros and cons.

The optimized design of catalyst layer (CL) plays a vital role to improve the performance of polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs). The need to improve transport and catalyst activity is especially important at low Pt loading, where local oxygen and ionic transport resistances decrease the performance due to an inevitable reduction of active catalyst sites. In this work, local oxygen and ionic transport are analyzed using direct numerical simulation on virtually reconstructed microstructures. Four morphologies are examined: (i) heterogeneous, (ii) uniform, (iii) uniform vertically-aligned, and (iv) meso-porous ionomer distributions. The results show that the local oxygen transport resistance can be significantly reduced, while maintaining good ionic conductivity, through the design of high porosity CLs (ε≃0.6−0.7) with low agglomerated ionomer morphologies. Ionomer coalescence into thick films can be effectively mitigated by increasing the uniformity of thin films and reducing the tortuosity of ionomer distribution (e.g., good ionomer interconnection in supports with a vertical arrangement). The local oxygen resistance can be further decreased by the use of blended ionomers with enhanced oxygen permeability and meso-porous ionomers with oxygen transport routes in both water and ionomer. In summary, achieving high performance at low Pt loading in next-generation CLs must be accomplished through a combination of high porosity, uniform and low tortuosity ionomer distribution, and oxygen transport through activated water.

This research examines the impact of social equity on energy consumption. We constructed a digital twin for residential energy consumption by enriching the synthetic population with real-world surveys and feeding them with other environmental and appliance data to the energy modeling framework. We analyzed household hourly energy consumption data from Albemarle County and Charlottesville City in Virginia, USA, for the year 2019. We used clustering analysis to identify patterns in social equity and energy consumption. The results demonstrated the impact of different residential attributes on energy poverty. Statistical analyses, including ANOVA and Chi-Squared tests, were conducted to test for significant differences between racial groups in quantitative and categorical variables. The study found that race is significant in determining the location and quality of housing. People of color often live in areas with higher pollution and less access to green spaces. Additionally, income levels and the age of the house are influential factors in determining energy efficiency. Future work should focus on collecting and analyzing data at the country level and using qualitative data collection methods to gain a more comprehensive understanding of social equity issues concerning energy consumption. Overall, this study provides valuable insights into the relationship between different residential attributes and energy consumption, which can inform policy development to promote more equitable and sustainable communities.

Many factors drive land desertification, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. However, the numerous driving factors of desertification make analyses computer expensive. Cloud computing comes along to address this problem, especially in developing countries. The objective of this work was to assess the sensitivity of the East Atlantic Basin, Brazil, to desertification using the Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use (MEDALUS) model and Google Earth Engine (GEE). The model is composed of four environmental Quality Indices (QIs) associated with soil (SQI), vegetation (VQI), climate (CQI) and management (MQI), and contains factors influencing the desertification process. Digital databases of the factors were pre-processed and uploaded to GEE for analysis. We report Environmentally Sensitive Areas (ESAs) and Environmentally Critical Factors (ECF) maps of the East Atlantic Basin, which showed that most of the basin is in either critical (49.4%) or fragile (35.7%) state of sensitivity. In contrast, only a smaller portion of the area is unaffected (5%) or potentially affected (10.1%). Sensitivity to desertification was inversely correlated with the presence of vigorous vegetation. A joint analysis of ESAs and ECF shed light on the importance of each factor in the sensitivity to desertification. The East Atlantic Basin shows a high degree of sensitivity to desertification, thereby demanding more attention and establishment of measures to mitigate the negative impacts of the desertification process.

Many factors drive land desertification, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. However, the numerous driving factors of desertification make analyses computer expensive. Cloud computing comes along to address this problem, especially in developing countries. The objective of this work was to assess the sensitivity of the East Atlantic Basin, Brazil, to desertification using the Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use (MEDALUS) model and Google Earth Engine (GEE). The model is composed of four environmental Quality Indices (QIs) associated with soil (SQI), vegetation (VQI), climate (CQI) and management (MQI), and contains factors influencing the desertification process. Digital databases of the factors were pre-processed and uploaded to GEE for analysis. We report Environmentally Sensitive Areas (ESAs) and Environmentally Critical Factors (ECF) maps of the East Atlantic Basin, which showed that most of the basin is in either critical (49.4%) or fragile (35.7%) state of sensitivity. In contrast, only a smaller portion of the area is unaffected (5%) or potentially affected (10.1%). Sensitivity to desertification was inversely correlated with the presence of vigorous vegetation. A joint analysis of ESAs and ECF shed light on the importance of each factor in the sensitivity to desertification. The East Atlantic Basin shows a high degree of sensitivity to desertification, thereby demanding more attention and establishment of measures to mitigate the negative impacts of the desertification process.

Groundwater modeling is a useful tool for assessing sustainability in water resources planning. However, groundwater models are difficult to construct in regions with limited data availability. We illustrated how remote sensing data can be used leverage limited in situ data to build and calibrate a regional groundwater model in the Goulbi Maradi alluvial aquifer in Southern Niger in Western Africa. We used data from the NASA Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission to estimate recharge rates, the primary source of water to the aquifer. Additionally, we incorporated groundwater storage changes obtained from GRACE data from 2009 to 2021 to establish an overall water budget from which we could back-calculate groundwater withdrawals from pumping in the region. This approach allowed us to calibrate the model and then convert it to a predictive tool to analyze the impact of various assumptions about future recharge and groundwater extraction patterns associated with the development of groundwater infrastruction in the region. The results indicate that the Goulbi Maradi alluvial aquifer is sustainable, even an increase of groundwater extraction up to 28%.

This study is part of a project designed to simulate the long-term landform equilibrium of a rehabilitated mine site. The project utilizes event fine suspended sediment (FSS) fluxes in a receiving stream following a rainfall event as an indicator of landform stability. The aim of this study was to use HEC-HMS to determine sediment and discharge quantity upstream to determine how it affects the downstream development of the catchment landform, in terms of sediment changes and geomorphology. Thus, the study focused on hydrology and sediment modelling of the upper catchment with HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System) to determine daily discharge and sediment output at the catchment outlet. HEC-HMS was used to calibrate the stream discharge and FSS quantities at the catchment outlet to observed continuous discharge and FSS values. Calibration of the HEC-HMS model was done for two water years and then the same model parameters were used to validate the model for a third water year. Catchment discharge and FSS were calibrated and validated for continuous rainfall events against observed discharge and FSS data at the catchment outlet. The model was then run for a projected rainfall of 50 years. The denudation rate predicted by the model falls in the range previously determined for the region. The simulated sediment output was compared to the rainfall trends over the years. As a result, the sediment spikes following a rainfall-runoff event gradually decreased over time. Reducing FSS spikes indicate that the landform gradually attains stability. This modeling study can be used for long-term simulations to determine erosion equilibrium over the years and to quantify sediment yield in catchments for projected wet and dry rainfall scenarios.

This document serves as supplemental information to Shapero et al. (2023), which is itself a comment on Nowell et al. (2022). Environmental Health Perspective’s publishing standards for article comments have strict word counts and do not allow the addition of new primary data analyses; therefore, this document provides an additional level of detail and supporting analyses that serve as an important backup to and expansion of Shapero et al. (2023) and that also respond to some comments within the author’s reply to our comments (Holmes and Nowell, 2023). Nowell et al. (2022) evaluated potential PM_2.5 community impacts from sugarcane harvesting. However, their analysis is flawed by erroneous assumptions and misapplied technical approaches, as discussed in Shapero et al. (2023) and as detailed in this supplemental information document. Additionally, the authors ended their analysis with 2018 data, but later data shows no marginal increase in PM_2.5 during sugarcane harvest following 2019 even using the authors’ approach (Holmes and Nowell, 2023). Therefore, the authors’ evaluations have no relevance to current conditions. Nonetheless, even their evaluation and conclusions regarding PM_2.5 concentrations purportedly attributable to sugarcane harvesting prior to 2019 are unsupported and technically unsound as detailed below.

If the development of machine learning and artificial intelligence plays a role in many fields of research and technology today, it has a special relationship with neurosciences. Indeed, historically inspired by our knowledge of the brain, deep learning shares some vocabularies with neurosciences and can sometimes be considered a brain’s model. Taking the particular example of epileptic seizure, which can develop in any biological neural tissue, we raise the question if and how the models used for deep learning can capture or model these pathological events. This particular example is a starting point to discuss the nature, limits, and functions of these models, and what we expect from a model of the brain. Finally, we argue that a pluralistic approach leading to the integrated coexistence of different models is necessary to study the brain in all its complexity.

Task sharing approaches are challenged by the barriers fundamental to the use of non-specialists who lack specialist mental health training required to triage the candidates who could benefit from task-shared treatments. However, these challenges could be offset by using standardized and easy-to-implement algorithmic devices (e.g., nomograms) to help with the targeted dissemination of interventions. Therefore, the present investigation posits a prognostic model and a nomogram to predict the prognosis of perinatal depression among women in rural Pakistan. This secondary analysis utilizes data based on 903 pregnant women with depression who participated in a cluster randomized controlled trial that tested the effectiveness of the Thinking Healthy Program in rural Rawalpindi, Pakistan. The participants were recruited from 40 union councils in two sub-districts of Rawalpindi and randomly assigned to intervention and enhanced usual care. Sixteen sessions of the THP intervention were delivered by trained community health workers to women with depression over pregnancy and the postnatal period. A trained assessment team used the Structured Clinical Interview for the DSM-4 current major depressive episode module to diagnose depression at the baseline and post-intervention. The intervention received by the participants emerged as the most significant predictor in the model. Among clinical factors, baseline severity of core-emotional symptoms emerged as an essential predictor, followed by atypical symptoms and insomnia. Higher severity of these symptoms was associated with a poorer prognosis. Other important predictors of a favorable prognosis included living with paternal and maternal grandmothers, financial empowerment, higher socioeconomic class, and living in a joint family system. This prognostic model yielded acceptable discrimination (c-statistic =0.75) and calibration to aid in personalized delivery of psychological treatment.

Groundwater models serve as support tools to among others: assess water resources, evaluate management strategies, design remediation systems and optimize monitoring networks. Thus, the assimilation of information from observations into models is crucial to improve forecasts and reduce uncertainty of their results. As more information is collected routinely due to the use of automatic sensors, data loggers and real time transmission systems; groundwater modelers are becoming increasingly aware of the importance of using sophisticated tools to perform model calibration in combination with sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. Despite their usefulness, available approaches to perform this kind of analyses still present some challenges such as non-unique solution for the parameter estimation problem, high computational burden and a need of a deep understanding of the theoretical basis for the correct interpretation and use of their results, in particular the ones related to uncertainty analysis. We present a brief derivation of the main equations that serve as basis for this kind of analysis. We demonstrate how to use them to estimate parameters, assess the sensitivity and quantify the uncertainty of the model results using an example inspired by a real world setting. We analyze some of the main pitfalls that can occur when performing such kind of analyses and comment on practical approaches to overcome them. We also demonstrate that including groundwater flow estimations, although helpful in constraining the solution of the inverse problem as shown previously, may be difficult to apply in practice and, in some cases, may not provide enough information to significantly constrain the set of potential solutions.

Recently, most countries suffering from global warming due to the waste gases coming out of the combustion engines used to generate electric power by traditional methods. Therefore, many countries are currently trying to find alternative solutions to this problem by using renewable energies such as solar energy, wind energy, and energy generated from the waves of the ocean and sea to overcome pollution problems. The waves of the seas and oceans have enormous and largely untapped energy, so this work presents an efficient way to use the energy of sea waves to generate electricity. And also, trying to be a way to produce electricity from wave energy in the future. The best suitable places along the shores of Jizan city were inspected to install the buoy system to revenue advantage of the wave supreme height to achieve the height amount of electrical energy. A mathematical model was made to analyze the wave energy and convert it into energy extracted by mechanical force. The mathematical analyzes used the data collected from satellite maps of the numerous severe waves in the Red sea of the Jazan area, and the data published in previous research along that area. It was found that the beach of the Al Shuqaiq area is the greatest for installing the buoy and obtaining the highest electrical energy due to the presence of the highest wave intensity, followed by the beach of the Baysh and Al Morgan area. Also, one of the objectives of this research is to study the design of a device powered by a buoy to use the waves of the Red Sea to generate electric power. The influence of the buoy system design parameters such as the buoy diameter, length of the cylinder, and the length of the connecting rod on the electrical energy generation from wave energy was investigated. The current device is designed with a gearbox to produce continuous power with a single electric generator. A floating mooring device uses the rise and fall of bulges to convert sea wave energy into electrical energy. The device consists of a float, arm, two wheels of different diameters, a gear set, and an electric generator. The effect of the design of several factors on the performance of the device for converting the sea waves energy into electrical energy, including the length of the buoy arm, the wave height by changing the cam diameter, and the conversion ratios between the gear set, to optimize the output power of the wave energy.

A multiscale modeling concept for numerical simulation of multiphysics turbulent flow utilizing map-based advection is described. The approach is outlined with emphasis on its theoretical foundations and physical interpretations in order to establish the context for subsequent presentation of the associated numerical algorithms and the results of validation studies. The model formulation is a synthesis of existing methods, modified and extended in order to obtain a qualitatively new capability. The salient feature of the approach is that time advancement of the flow is fully resolved both spatially and temporally, albeit with modeled advancement processes restricted to one spatial dimension. This one-dimensional advancement is the basis of a bottom-up modeling approach in which three-dimensional space is discretized into under-resolved mesh cells, each of which contains an instantiation of the modeled one-dimensional advancement. Filtering is done only to provide inputs to a pressure correction that enforces continuity and to obtain mesh-scale-filtered outputs if desired. The one-dimensional advancement, the pressure correction, and coupling of one-dimensional instantiations using a Lagrangian implementation of mesh-resolved volume fluxes is sufficient to advance the three-dimensional flow without time advancing coarse-grained equations, a feature that motivates the designation of the approach as autonomous microscale evolution (AME). In this sense, the one-dimensional treatment is not a closure because there are no unclosed terms to evaluate. However, the approach is additionally suitable for use as a subgrid-scale closure of existing large-eddy-simulation methods. The potential capabilities and limitations of both of these implementations of the approach are assessed conceptually and with reference to demonstrated capabilities of related methods.

The incorporation of unmanned aircraft terminal operations into the scope of Detect and Avoid systems necessitates analysis of the safety performance of those systems—principally, an assessment of how well those systems prevent loss of well clear from and collision with other aircraft. This type of analysis has typically been conducted by Monte Carlo simulation with synthetic, statistically representative encounters between aircraft drawn from an appropriate encounter model. While existing encounter models include terminal airspace classes, none explicitly represents the structure expected while engaged in terminal operations, e.g., aircraft in a traffic pattern. The work described herein is an initial model of such operations, scoped at this time specifically for assessment of unmanned aircraft landings and encounters with other aircraft either landing or taking off. The model shares the Bayesian network foundation of other MIT Lincoln Laboratory encounter models but tailors those networks to address structured terminal operations, i.e., correlations between trajectories and the airfield and each other. This initial model release is intended to elicit feedback from the standards-writing community.

Concrete is a heterogeneous material with a disordered material morphology that strongly governs the behavior of the material. In this contribution, we present a computational tool called the Concrete Mesostructure Generator (CMG) for the generation of ultra-realistic virtual concrete morphologies for mesoscale and multiscale computational modeling and simulation of concrete. Given an aggregate size distribution, realistic generic concrete aggregates are generated by a sequential reduction of a cuboid to generate a polyhedron with multiple faces. Thereafter, concave depressions are introduced in the polyhedron using gaussian surfaces. The generated aggregates are assembled into the mesostructure using a hierarchic random sequential adsorption algorithm. The virtual mesostructures are first calibrated using laboratory measurements of aggregate distributions. The model is validated by comparing the elastic properties obtained from laboratory testing of concrete specimens with the elastic properties obtained using computational homogenisation of virtual concrete mesostructures. Finally, a 3D-convolutional neural network is trained to directly generate elastic properties from voxel data.

Tree biomass and diversity relationship in mixed forest impacts on forest ecosystem services provisions. Tree biomass yield is driven by several aspects such as species identity, site condition, stand density, tree age as well as tree diversity expressed as species mingling and structural diversity. By comparing diverse degrees of tree mixture in natural forests we can insight on the ecosystem services provision level and dynamic. Two monitoring sites in the Castilian Northern Plateau (Spain) have been analyzed to disentangle the relationships between biodiversity levels and tree biomass yield. Two permanent one ha squared plots were established at Llano de San Marugan and Valdepoza. In each plot all individual trees were measured (diameter and height), georeferenced and its species identity defined. Tree species in the two sites were Pinus sylvestris, Pinus nigra, Pinus pinea, Quercus pyrenaica, Quercus ilex, Quercus faginea and Juniperus thurifera. From these datasets ten diversity indices that fall in three categories (species richness indices, species compositional/mingling indices and vertical structural indices) were used as predictor variables to fit several candidate models. By merging the trees by site (without considering the species identity) selected models include individual tree basal area as explanatory variable combining by addition or interaction with diversity indices. When species are analyzed independently structural diversity impacts on biomass yield in combination (additive or multiplicative) with tree size is negative Pinus nigra and positive for the other species.

This paper presents the validation of the End Point Rate (EPR) tool for QGIS (EPR4Q), a tool built-in QGIS Graphical Modeler to calculate the shoreline change by End Point Rate method. The EPR4Q tries to fill the gap of user-friendly and free open-source tool for shoreline analysis in Geographic Information System environment, since the most used software - Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) - although is a free extension, is suited for commercial software. Besides, the best free open-source option to calculate EPR called Analyzing Moving Boundaries Using R (AMBUR), since it is a robust and powerful tool, the complexity and heavy processes can restrict the accessibility and simple usage. The validation methodology consists of applying the EPR4Q, DSAS, and AMBUR on different examples of shorelines found in nature, extracted from the U.S. Geological Survey Open-File. The obtained results of each tool were compared with Pearson correlation coefficient. The validation results indicate that the EPR4Q tool created acquired high correlation values with DSAS and AMBUR, reaching a coefficient of 0.98 to 1.00 on linear, extensive, and non-extensive shorelines, guarantying that the EPR4Q tool is ready to be freely used by the academic, scientific, engineering, and coastal managers communities worldwide.

U.S. Navy Surface Ship depot-level maintenance periods of performance were studied to develop a method for predicting maintenance durations. The need for the method has been highlighted by Navy leadership in recent media posts describing unacceptable maintenance delays and this research provides practitioners and decisionmakers with a reliable estimating tool. This study helps by putting forth a method that defines the rate of work accomplishment based on relevant variables. Using ordinary least squares models, this research revealed that the size of the contract obligation and the amount of shipyard work occurring simultaneously in the market are key variables in determining depot maintenance durations. With the knowledge found here, the next logical step is an optimization model for each U.S. Navy surface ship homeport.

Nutrient management of lowbush blueberry (Vaccinium angustifolium Ait.) depends on several yield-limiting features. Machine learning models can process such yield-impacting variables to predict berry yield. We investigated the effects of local variables on yields and nutrient management of lowbush blueberry. We collected 1504 observations from N-P-K fertilizer trials conducted in Quebec, Canada. Meteorological indices at various phenological stages showed the greatest impact on yield. High mean temperature at flower bud opening and after fruit maturation, and total precipitation at flowering showed positive effects. Low mean temperature and low total precipitation before bud opening, at flowering, and by fruit maturity, as well as number of freezing days (< -5ºC) before flower bud opening, showed negative effects. Soil fertility variables, leaf nutrient compositions and N-P-K fertilization showed smaller effects. Gaussian processes predicted berry yields from historical weather data, soil analysis, fertilizer dosage, and leaf nutrients with a root-mean-square-error of 1447 kg ha-1 on the testing data set. An in-house Markov chain algorithm optimized yields modelled with Gaussian processes from leaf nutrient composition, soil test value, and fertilizer dosage conditioned to specified historical weather features. We propose to use conditioned machine learning models to manage nutrients of lowbush blueberry at local scale.

The prevalence of differential equations as a mathematical technique has refined the fields of control theory and constrained optimization due to the newfound ability to accurately model chaotic, unbalanced systems. However, in recent research, systems are increasingly more nonlinear and difficult to model using Differential Equations only. Thus, a newer technique is to use policy iteration and Reinforcement Learning, techniques that center around an action and reward sequence for a controller. Reinforcement Learning (RL) can be applied to control theory problems since a system can robustly apply RL in a dynamic environment such as the cartpole system (an inverted pendulum). This solution successfully avoids use of PID or other dynamics optimization systems, in favor of a more robust, reward-based control mechanism. This paper applies RL and Q-Learning to the classic cartpole problem, while also discussing the mathematical background and differential equations which are used to model the aforementioned system.

The Rosetta software suite for macromolecular modeling, docking, and design is widely used in pharmaceutical, industrial, academic, non-profit, and government laboratories. Considering its broad modeling capabilities, Rosetta consistently ranks highly when compared to other leading methods created for highly specialized protein modeling and design tasks. Developed for over two decades by a global community of scientists at more than 60 institutions, Rosetta has undergone multiple refactorings, and now comprises over three million lines of code. Here we discuss the methods developed in the last five years, involving the latest protocols for structure prediction, protein–protein and protein–small molecule docking, protein structure and interface design, loop modeling, the incorporation of various types of experimental data, and modeling of peptides, antibodies and other proteins in the immune system, nucleic acids, non-standard amino acids, carbohydrates, and membrane proteins. We briefly discuss improvements to the energy function, user interfaces, and usability of the ­­software. Rosetta is available at www.rosettacommons.org.

Nowadays, one of the biggest concern of human being is greenhouse gas emission, especially carbon dioxide emission in developed and under-developing countries. In this study, connectionist models including LSSVM (Least Square Support Vector Machine) and evolutionary methods are employed for predicting the amount of CO₂ emission in six Latin American countries, i.e., Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Peru, Chile, Venezuela, and Uruguay. The studied region is modelled based on the available input data in terms of Million tons including oil (Million tons), gas (Million tons oil equivalent), coal (Million tons oil equivalent), $R_{ew}$ (Million tons oil equivalent), and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in terms of billion US dollars.} Moreover, the available patents in the fields of climate change mitigation in six Latin American countries namely Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Peru, Chile, Venezuela, and Uruguay has been reviewed and analyzed. The results show that except Venezuela, all other mentioned countries have invested in renewable energy R&D activities. Brazil and Argentina have the highest share of renewable energies which account for 60% and 72% respectively.

Humans may be exposed to microbial pathogens at recreational beaches via environmental sources, such as water, sand, and aerosols. Although infectious disease risk from exposure to waterborne pathogens has been an active area of research for decades, sand is a relatively unexplored reservoir of pathogens and fecal indicator bacteria (FIB). Beach sand and water habitats provide unique advantages and challenges to pathogen introduction, growth, and persistence, as well as continuous exchange between habitats. Models of FIB and pathogen fate and transport in sandy beach habitats can help predict the risk of infectious disease from recreational water use, but filling knowledge gaps such as decay rates and potential for microbial growth in beach habitats is necessary for accurate modeling. Climatic variability, whether natural or anthropogenically-induced, adds complexity to predictive modeling, but may increase human exposure to waterborne pathogens via extreme weather events, warming of water bodies and sea level rise in many regions. The popularity of human recreational beach activities, combined with predicted climate change scenarios, could amplify the risk of human exposure to pathogens and related illnesses. Other global change trends such as increased population growth and urbanization are expected to exacerbate contamination events and the predicted impacts of increasing levels of waterborne pathogens on human health. Such changes will alter microbial population dynamics in beach habitats, and will consequently affect the assumptions and relationships used in population models and quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). Here, we discuss the literature on microbial population and transport dynamics in sand-water continuum habitats at beaches, how these dynamics can be modeled, and how climate change and other anthropogenic influences (e.g., land use, urbanization) should be considered when using and developing more holistic, beachshed-based models.

The concept of transit-oriented development (TOD) has been widely recognized in recent years for its role in reducing car traffic, improving public transportation, and enhancing traffic sustainability. This paper conducts empirical research on a developed rail transit network, using Shanghai as a case study. In addition to traditional TOD features, other factors based on urban rail transit are introduced, including multi-level modeling (MLM), which is used to analyze the possible factors influencing rail patronage. To avoid the bias of research results led by the correlation between independent variables, factors are divided into two levels. The first level includes three groups of variables: the built environment, station characteristics, and socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. The second level includes a set of variables which are regional characteristics. Results show that the most significant impact on train patronage is station location in the business district area. Other factors that have a positive effect on promoting rail transit travel include the number of service facilities around the station, degree of employment around the station, economic level, intensity of residential development, if the station is a transfer station, the operating period of the station, and the size of the large transportation hub around the station.

Optimal conditions for maximum efficacy of photoinitiated polymerization are theoretically presented. Analytic formulas are shown for the crosslink time, crosslink depth and efficacy function. The roles of photoinitiator (PI) concentration, diffusion depth and light intensity on the polymerization spatial and temporal profiles, for both uniform and non-uniform cases, are presented. For optimal efficacy, a strategy via controlled PI concentration is proposed, where re-supply of PI in high light intensity may achieve a combined-efficacy similar to low light intensity, but has a much faster procedure. A new criterion of efficacy based on the polymerization (crosslink) [strength] and [depth] is introduced. Experimental data are analyzed for the role of PI concentration and light intensity on the gelation time and efficacy.

Operational weather and also flood forecasting has been performed successfully for decades and is of great socioeconomic importance. Up to now, forecast products focus on atmospheric variables, such as precipitation, air temperature and, in hydrology, on river discharge. Considering the full terrestrial system from groundwater across the land surface into the atmosphere, a number of important hydrologic variables are missing especially with regard to the shallow and deeper subsurface (e.g. groundwater), which are gaining considerable attention in the context of global change. In this study, we propose a terrestrial monitoring/forecasting system using the Terrestrial Systems Modeling Platform (TSMP) that predicts all essential states and fluxes of the terrestrial hydrologic and energy cycles from groundwater into the atmosphere. Closure of the terrestrial cycles provides a physically consistent picture of the terrestrial system in TSMP. TSMP has been implemented over a regional domain over North Rhine-Westphalia and a continental domain over European in a real-time forecast/monitoring workflow. Applying a real-time forecasting/monitoring workflow over both domains, experimental forecasts are being produced with different lead times since the beginning of 2016. Real-time forecast/monitoring products encompass all compartments of the terrestrial system including additional hydrologic variables, such as plant available soil water, groundwater table depth, and groundwater recharge and storage.

A finite-difference approach with non-uniform meshes was presented for simulating magnetotelluric responses in 2D structures. We presented the formulation of this scheme and gave some sights into its successful implementation, and compared finite-difference solution with known numerical results and simple analytical solutions. First, a homogeneous half-space model was tested and the finite-difference approach can provide very good accuracy for 2D magnetotelluric modeling. Then we compared to the analytical solutions for the two-layered model, the relative errors of the apparent resistivity and the impedance phase were both increased when the frequency was increased. In the end, we compare our finite-difference simulation results with COMMEMI 2D-0 model with the finite-element solutions. Both results are in close agreement to each other. These comparisons confirm the validity and reliability of our finite-difference algorithm.

Mathematical models of cognition measure individual differences in cognitive processes, such as processing speed, working memory capacity, and executive functions, that may underlie general intelligence. As such, cognitive models allow identifying associations between specific cognitive processes and tracking the effect of experimental interventions aimed at the enhancement of intelligence on mediating process parameters. Moreover, cognitive models provide an explicit theoretical formalization of theories regarding specific cognitive process that may help overcoming ambiguities in the interpretation of fuzzy verbal theories. In this paper, we give an overview of the advantages of cognitive modeling in intelligence research and present models in the domains of processing speed, working memory, and selective attention that may be of particular interest for intelligence research. Moreover, we provide guidelines for the application of cognitive models in intelligence research, including data collection, the evaluation of model fit, and statistical analyses.

GNSS receivers are nowadays commonly used in monitoring applications, e.g., in estimating crustal and infrastructure deformations. This is basically due to the recent improvements in GNSS instruments and methodologies that allow high precision positioning, 24 h availability and semiautomatic data processing. In this paper, GNSS estimated deformations on a dam structure have been analyzed and compared with pendulum data. This study has been carried out for the Eleonora D’Arborea (Cantoniera) dam, which is in the Sardinia Island. Time series of pendulum and GNSS over a time span of 2.5 years have been aligned so to be comparable. Analytical models fitting these time series have been estimated and compared. Those models were able to properly fit pendulum data and GNSS data, with standard deviation of residuals smaller than one millimeter. This encouraging results led to the conclusion that GNSS technique can be profitably applied to dam monitoring allowing a denser description, both in space and time, of the dam displacements than the one based on pendulum observations.

By installing FBG sensors on the geogrids, smart geogrids can both reinforce and monitor the stability for geogrid-reinforced slopes. In this paper, a geogrid-reinforced sand slope model test was conducted in the laboratory and fiber Bragg grating (FBG) sensing technology is used to measure the strain distribution of the geogrid. Based on the model test, the performance of the reinforced soil slope is simulated by finite element software Midas-GTS, and the stability of the reinforced soil slope is analyzed by strength reduction method. The relationship between the geogrid strain and safety factor is set up. The results indicate that the measured strain and calculated results agree very well. The geogrid strain measured by FBG sensor can be applied to evaluate the stability of geogrid-reinforced sand slopes.

In power systems there are complex transformer structures, whose accurate analysis is not possible using the techniques available today. This paper presents a systematic data driven analysis method for coupled inductors of arbitrary complexity. The method first establishes a winding matrix N mapping the windings to the limbs of the transformer. A permeance matrix P is created from the reluctance network of the magnetic core. A generalized inductance matrix L mapping currents in the transformer windings to the induced voltages is generated based on the winding (N) and permeance (P) matrices. The inductance matrix representation of a coupled inductor is then transformed to an admittance matrix, which can be integrated to the nodal analysis of the electrical circuit surrounding the coupled inductor. The method presented is validated by simulations with real transformer structures using electromagnetic transient program (EMTP/ATP).

Ca Mau Peninsula (CMP), the southernmost region of the Mekong Delta, is facing a severe loss of land and freshwater. Particularly, the groundwater resources in the complex multilayered aquifer system of CMP are subject to salinization processes, which are not yet fully understood. In this study, an existing groundwater flow model for the CMP was enhanced to a density-dependent transient transport model using the FEFLOW software package, which is based on the finite element method. The study focuses on simulating groundwater salinity in order to better understand the dynamics of groundwater salinization and potential saltwater intrusion pathways in the study area. Time series of Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) concentrations at observation wells were used to compare simulated and observed salinity data in different aquifers. The model allows a multi-factorial evaluation of the spatial groundwater salinity and could also confirm significant inter-annual variability, particularly in the case of shallow aquifers due to the influence of tides and seasonal rainy/dry seasons. Using sensitivity analysis, leakage from upper saline aquifers into lower freshwater aquifers through natural hydrogeological windows and poorly sealed boreholes was identified as a potential major cause for groundwater salinization occurring in the region. The results obtained can serve as an important basis for developing decision-making tools to promote the sustainable use of water resources on the CMP in the future.

This cross-country four-year longitudinal study investigated the development of processing speed throughout primary school education. The analyses were conducted on data collected from 441 schoolchildren in Grades 1, 2, 3 and 4 (aged 6.42 to 11.85 years) in the Kyrgyzstan and Russia. Mixed effects growth modeling was applied to estimate average and individual growth trajectories for processing speed at two cross-country samples. Latent class growth modeling was conducted to identify different types of growth trajectories for processing speed and to compare the distribution of the types within the analyzed samples. According to the results, processing speed significantly increases across primary school years. The trajectory is characterized by nonlinear changes with more intensive growth between Grades 1 and 2, which later slows down until Grade 4. There were no significant cross-country differences in the initial score of processing speed or developmental changes in processing speed across primary school years. The development of processing speed is described by a model with three quadratic growth types but minimally differs. It is concluded that in both samples, the development of processing speed may be characterized by homogeneity, with the most intensive growth from Grade 1 to Grade 2 and subsequent linear improvement until Grade 4.

Mathematical modeling is the most important tool for constructing the theory of different kinds of two-phase flows. The review is devoted to the analysis of the advent of the approach of mathematical modeling of two-phase flows, where solid particles act mainly as the dispersed phase. The main problems and features of the study of gas-solid two-phase flows are excluded. The main characteristics of gas flows with solid particles are given and the classification of two-phase flows is developed on their basis. The Lagrangian and Euler approaches to modeling the motion of a dispersed phase (particles) are described. Much attention is paid to the consideration of numerical simulation methods that describe descriptions of turbulent gas flow at different hierarchical levels (RANS, LES, DNS), different levels of description of interphase interactions (one-way coupling (OWC), two-way coupling (TWC) and four-way coupling (FWC)), as well as at different levels of interface resolution (partial-point (PP) and particle-resolved (PR)). Excluded are examples of some studies carried out on the basis of the identified approaches, as well as their exclusion for mathematical modeling of various classes of gas-solid two-phase flows.

Wave energy converter (WEC) arrays deployed in coastal regions may create physical disturbances potentially resulting in environmental stresses. Presently, limited information is available on the nature of these physical disturbance or the resultant effects. A quantitative Spatial Environmental Assessment Tool (SEAT) for evaluating potential effects of wave energy converter (WEC) arrays on nearshore hydrodynamics and sediment transport is presented for the central Oregon coast (USA) through coupled numerical model simulations of an array of WECs. Derived climatological wave conditions were used as inputs to the model to allow for the calculation of risk metrics associated with various hydrodynamic and sediment transport variables such as maximum shear stress, bottom velocity, and change in bed elevation. The risk maps provided simple, quantitative, and spatially-resolved means of evaluating physical changes in the vicinity of a hypothetical WEC array in response to varying wave conditions. Near-field risk of sediment mobility was determined to be moderate in the lee of the densely spaced array, where the potential for increased sediment deposition could result in benthic habitat alteration. Modifications to the nearshore sediment deposition and erosion patterns were observed near headlands and topographic features, which could have implications for littoral sediment transport. The results illustrate the benefits of a risk evaluation tool for facilitating coastal resource management at early market marine renewable energy sites.

Induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSC) are derived from reprogrammed adult somatic cells. These adult cells are manipulated in vitro to express genes and factors essential for acquiring and maintaining embryonic stem cell (ESC) properties. This technology is widely applied in many fields, and there has been much attention to developing iPSC-based disease models to validate drug discovery platforms and study pathophysiological molecular processes underlying disease onset. Especially in neurological diseases, there is a great need for iPSC-based technological research, as these cells can be obtained from each patient and carry the individual’s bulk of genetic mutations and properties. Moreover, iPSC can differentiate into multiple cell types. These are essential characteristics since the study of neurological diseases is affected by limited access to injured sites, in vitro models composed of various cell types, the complexity of reproducing the brain’s anatomy, ethical issues, and the fact that post-mortem cell culture is challenging. Neurodegenerative diseases enormously impact global health due to their high incidence, symptoms severity, and usually lack of effective therapies. Recently, analyses using disease-specific iPSC-based models confirmed their efficacy for testing multiple drugs. This review summarizes the advances in iPSC technology used in disease modeling and drug testing with a primary focus on neurodegenerative diseases, including Parkinson’s and Alzheimer’s diseases.

Semantic interoperability is a foundational concept in modern healthcare, enabling seamless communication and meaningful data exchange across diverse EHR systems. At the heart of this concept lies archetype clinical information models, which serve as standardized templates to structure and encode clinical data, ensuring consistency and shared understanding among various healthcare stakeholders. This review paper delves into the intricacies of Electronic Health Records (EHRs) within the context of semantic interoperability and the pivotal role played by archetype clinical information models. Drawing from a wealth of recent research, this review paper examines the theoretical underpinnings of semantic interoperability. By surveying the literature, it synthesizes the diverse approaches and methods employed to achieve semantic interoperability within EHR systems. Furthermore, this review does not shy away from addressing the significant challenges that persist in this arena. These challenges encompass issues related to data quality, governance, resistance to change, and the scalability and integration hurdles that healthcare organizations encounter in their quest for interoperable EHR systems. Through a comprehensive review of relevant research papers from esteemed sources including PubMed, ScienceDirect, and Taylor & Francis, the paper offers a comprehensive understanding of the approaches and methods employed in this domain. This analysis encompasses a time frame ranging from 2015 to 2023, ensuring an up-to-date assessment of the field. By presenting a well-rounded picture of the field, this review paper offers valuable insights for healthcare stakeholders, researchers, and practitioners. It underscores the enduring importance of semantic interoperability in EHR systems, not only in advancing patient care, clinical decision support, and healthcare operations but also in driving data-driven innovations in the dynamic and ever-evolving medical healthcare sector. This comprehensive examination sets the stage for future advancements in the pursuit of truly interoperable and data-driven healthcare systems.

The Cantareira Water Producer System (CWPS), which supplies water to the most populous Brazilian region, Metropolitan Region of São Paulo (MRSP), faces significant challenges due to climate change, threatening its water security. Climate change affects the hydrological cycle affecting water availability. The CWPS is vulnerable to periods of scarcity and instability due to increased climatic variability and increasing water consumption. Current water resource management systems do not consider the impacts of climate change, making it difficult to ensure water security in the future. This study analyzes the impact of climate change on the availability of CWPS using hydrological modeling approach with forecast precipitation data by CMIP6 and assessment of existing systems. The finds will provide a comprehensive understanding of the challenges faced by CWPS in the context of climate change, as well as support strategies and adaptive measures to ensure water security for MRSP.

This study applies several natural language processing techniques for characterizing social groups by analyzing published text in social media. The resulting computed values are proposed as features for modeling social groups and measure distances or similarities among them, along further data that could help understanding group behavior according to language usage. In this study, we have analyzed the messages published on Twitter regarding patriotism by the main political parties in Spain. The results show that lexical resources and topic modelling algorithms are useful to model different groups and serve as comparison tools to better understand the topics these groups are talking about.

In the context of post-harvest pest management in agricultural products, the adoption of modified atmospheres presents an eco-friendly alternative to conventional pesticides. This study focuses on nitrogen gas as a potential agent for insect control in stored commodities, utilizing computational simulations to investigate its penetration and distribution within two common storage configurations: chamber-contained pallets and silos. By employing the convection-diffusion equation, the simulations reveal insights into nitrogen distribution dynamics and duration required for oxygen reduction. The results highlight the influence of boundary conditions, commodity porosity, and convection effects on nitrogen dispersion. In chamber scenarios, boundary condition type significantly affects oxygen reduction time, while in silos, convection and diffusion interact to establish a consistent diffusion layer thickness. This research enhances the understanding of modified atmosphere techniques and their potential for sustainable pest management. It provides practitioners with valuable quantitative insights, paving the way for optimized modified atmosphere strategies in real-world agricultural contexts.

The article analyzes the transitional mode of movement of a passenger train caused by emergency braking by the driver. To study the possibility of derailment of passenger cars, a simulation model of the movement of a train consisting of a locomotive and twenty passenger cars was developed in the Universal Mechanism software environment, designed to study the dynamics and kinematics of mechanical systems, which include railway rolling stock. The developed model allows taking into account the longitudinal, transverse and vertical vibrations of all cars and locomotive. All bodies in the model are assumed to be absolutely rigid. The assumption of non-deformability of the bodies is based on the fact that the stiffness of the spring suspension and elastic connections is significantly less than the structural rigidity of the bogie frames and the bolster structure, and the frequency of elastic vibrations of these bodies is much higher than the frequency of their vibrations on the spring suspension. Passengers and cargo in a wagon are considered to be non-deformable and integral with the wagon body, similarly in the case of a locomotive body. Between the elements of the system, connections are involved that regulate certain relative movements of these elements.

Coproporphyrins I and III (CP-I and CP-III) are established as substrates of hepatic sinusoidal organic anion transporting polypeptides (Oatps), multidrug resistance-associated protein 3 (Mrp3), and canalicular transporter Mrp2. We aimed to evaluate the potential of plasma CP-I and CP-III concentrations to indicate functional changes in hepatic transporters in nonalcoholic stea-tohepatitis (NASH) rodent models using modeling and simulation approach. Mechanistic copro-porphyrins (CP-I and CP-III) models in rats and mice were constructed based on metabolism, transport, and elimination pathways in rodents. To parameterize the rat mechanistic model, we measured CP concentrations in plasma, liver, bile, and urine in healthy control Sprague Dawley rats. The mouse mechanistic model was parameterized using published data. The rat and mouse CP models described the steady-state levels of CP-I and CP-III in plasma, liver, and bile. The model recapitulated the observed high plasma CP-III / CP-1 ratio (9- and 3-fold in rats and mice, respec-tively) and elimination pathways of CP-I (>90% via biliary secretion) and CP-III (equal via bile and urine). Rat CP model was further validated with the published rat fistula model. The simulated increased plasma CP-I concentrations (4-fold), resulted from decreased Oatp activity (0.6-fold) and increased Mrp3 activity (3-fold) were comparable to those observed in bile-duct ligated NASH model. Sensitivity analysis revealed that 90% inhibition of Oatp and Mrp2 leads to a 4-fold and 2.5-fold increase in plasma CP-I levels, respectively. Additionally, we demonstrated the utility of the mechanistic CP models in testing hypothesis and understanding the mechanisms of the ob-served plasma CPs disposition in the Oatp knockout (KO) mice, bile-duct ligation NASH mice, and Mrp2 deficient TR- rats. Collectively, using a mechanistic model, we conclude that CP-I is a robust and predictable marker for assessing change in the activity of Oatps and Mrps in animal models. Our analysis suggests that efflux transporters (Mrp2 and Mrp3) can play an important role in the disposition of CP-I along with Oatp transporters in rodents.

Abstract—Annually, approximately 500,000 Merger and Ac- quisition (M&A) transactions are disclosed globally, each trans- action inciting substantial perturbations to the associated com- panies’ equity prices. The probability of an M&A transaction’s closure, as perceived by the public, inherently influences the stock price of the target company leading up to the proposed date of the deal. Given the recent advancements in the realm of Natural Language Processing (NLP), we propose an empirical investigation into the correlation between digital dialogue sur- rounding M&A transactions and consequent movements in the stock prices of involved companies. Utilizing transformer-based encoder-only architectures, we fine tune a stance detection model on an extensive dataset, amassed from digital communication platforms, featuring public discourse related to five historical M&A transactions. Ultimately, we achieved 70% accuracy on deal-completion stance detection using the Roberta-base model. We subsequently employ the aggregated the public sentiment towards the completion or termination of a proposed M&A transaction to model stock price movement. Utilizing a multitude of time-series based approaches, we achieve a mean absolute error of 2.29 USD for next-day price prediction and 3.40 USD for next-week price prediction. Ultimately, we find an existing but tenuous relationship between online discourse and the price trajectory of target companies, ultimately highlighting the complex social and economic phenomena behind M&A deals.Index Terms—Mergers and Acquisitions, Stock prediction, su- pervised learning, neural networks, Recurrent Neural Network, LSTM, stance detection, transformers

This study focused on the predictive models incorporating machine learning techniques that induce new dynamics for forecasting energy generation, enabling effective planning, financing, and system monitoring. The research developed a machine learning-based power generation prediction model tailored explicitly for Kenya's Garissa solar power plant. The selected model demonstrated a root mean squared error of 5.23 during evaluation, resulting in a prediction accuracy of 90.42%. This high accuracy indicates that the model can be relied upon for precise generation prediction, facilitating effective planning, and system performance monitoring

Cellular automata (CA) models have emerged as a valuable tool in corrosion management. This manuscript provides an overview of the application of cellular automata models in corrosion research, highlighting their benefits and contributions to understanding the complex nature of corrosion processes. Cellular automata models offer a computational approach to simulate corrosion behavior at the microscale, capturing the intricate interactions between electrochemical reactions, material properties, and environmental factors generating a new vision of predictive maintenance. It discusses the key features of cellular automata, such as the grid-based representation of the material surface, the definition of state variables, and the rules governing cell-state transitions. The ability to model local interactions and emergent global behavior makes cellular automata particularly suitable for simulating corrosion processes. Finally, cellular automata models offer a powerful and versatile approach to studying corrosion processes, expanding models that can continue to enhance our understanding of corrosion and contribute to the development of effective corrosion prevention and control strategies.

Porous materials can be characterized by well-trained neural networks. In this study, fibrous paper-type gas diffusion layers were trained with artificial data created by a stochastic geometry model. The features of the data were calculated by means of transport simulations using the Lattice–Boltzmann method based on stochastic micro-structures. A convolutional neural network was developed that can predict the permeability and tortuosity of the material, through-plane and in-plane. The characteristics of real data, both uncompressed and compressed, were predicted. The data was represented by reconstructed images of different sizes and image resolutions. Image artifacts are also a source of potential errors in the prediction. The Kozeny–Carman trend was used to evaluate the prediction of permeability and tortuosity of compressed real data. Using this method, it was possible to decide if the predictions on compressed data were appropriate.

The number of applications for nanobodies is steadily expanding, positioning these molecules as fast-growing biologic products in the biotechnology market. Several of their applications require protein engineering, which in turn would greatly benefit from having a reliable structural model of the nanobody of interest. However, as with antibodies, structural modeling of nanobodies is still a challenge. With the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), several methods have been developed in recent years that attempt to solve the problem of protein modeling. In this study, we have compared the performance in nanobody modeling of several state-of-the-art AI-based programs, either designed for general protein modeling, such as AlphaFold2, OmegaFold, ESMFold and Yang-Server, or specifically designed for antibody modeling, such as IgFold, and Nanonet. While all these programs performed rather well in constructing the nanobody framework and CDRs 1 and 2, modeling of CDR3 sill represents a big challenge. Interestingly, tailoring an AI method for antibody modeling does not necessarily translate into better results for nanobodies.

In this study, a multiobjective, multiperiod, global optimization for design, sizing and dispatch of an islanded, hybrid microgrid was performed using a model built in MATLAB. The system was simulated over one year for sizing and over one day for dispatch, both using hourly time steps. The model minimized lifecycle levelized costs, emissions, lost load and dumped power while maximizing penetration of clean, renewable sources in the microgrid. This found optimal capacities of the renewable, energy storage and backup generation components which provide the best combination of affordability, sustainability, reliability and efficiency. After experimenting with several global solvers, it was determined that particle swarm optimization is most well-suited to solving the sizing optimization problem. The PV-wind microgrid using Li-ion batteries along with diesel engines was found to perform best among all the combinations considered. It was found that in spite of including additional objectives, monetary costs are the primary driver while allocating generation capacity between different renewable sources like wind versus solar PV. Furthermore, the sizing of PV, wind and battery storage depends strongly on the rating of the standby distributed generator, mainly due to reliability consideration. Generating Pareto-optimal sets revealed interesting relationships between different input variables (i.e. PV, wind and battery capacities) as well as trade-offs that arise while pursuing different objectives. Pursuing cost-minimization alone may lead to sub-optimal outcomes in terms of environmental impact, reliability and excess energy production. A sensitivity analysis was also conducted to understand the effects of various parameters like fuel price and energy storage costs on the optimal system's design and operation. Such accurate sizing programs help reduce the extent of oversizing of sub-systems during the design and planning stage, which is usually needed to achieve high reliability with distributed and decentralized energy systems like off-grid microgrids. This reduces the upfront capital investment needed to build the system, making clean electricity access affordable in the short term. The economic-environmental dispatch produced day-ahead scheduling strategies to meet the above mentioned objectives. The system was found to be relatively robust to short-term uncertainties and disturbances in renewable generation and load, although this does cause sub-optimal performance due to increased reliance on fossil fuels. It was found that dispatching of the batteries and backup generators is most critical in minimizing impacts of such events. However, the response to longer-term disturbances still remains to be assessed. The study also includes a comprehensive literature review of tools available for microgrid design as well as different optimization algorithms that have been used to solve microgrid sizing, dispatch and scheduling problems. Additionally, an overview is provided of various control strategies that can be used to improve robustness and resiliency of microgrids.

Problem. Image biomarker analysis, also known as radiomics, is a tool for tissue characterization and treatment prognosis that relies on routinely acquired clinical images and delineations. Due to the uncertainty in image acquisition, processing, and segmentation (delineation) protocols, radiomics often lacks reproducibility. Radiomics harmonization techniques have been proposed as a solution to reduce these sources of uncertainty and/or their influence on the prognostic model performance. A relevant question is how to estimate the protocol-induced uncertainty of a specific image biomarker, what the effect is on the model performance, and how to optimize the model given the uncertainty. In this manuscript, we show how protocol uncertainty can drastically reduce prognostic model performance. We introduce an effect-size measure η that assesses the protocol-induced uncertainty versus the measurable effect. Methods. Two non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) cohorts, composed of 421 and 240 patients respectively, were used for training and testing. Per patient, a Monte Carlo algorithm was used to generate three hundred synthetic contours with a surface dice tolerance measure less than 1.18 mm with respect to the original GTV. These contours were subsequently used to derive 104 radiomic features, which were ranked on their relative sensitivity to contour perturbation, expressed in the parameter η. The top four (low η) and the bottom four (high η) features were selected for two models based on Cox proportional hazards model. To investigate the influence of segmentation uncertainty on the prognostic model, we trained and tested the setup in 5000 augmented realizations (using a Monte Carlo sampling method); the log-rank test was used to assess the stratification performance and stability to segmentation uncertainty. Results. Although both low and high η setup showed significant testing set log-rank p-values (p=0.01) in the original GTV delineations (without segmentation uncertainty introduced), in the model with high uncertainty to effect ratio only around 30% of the augmented realizations resulted in model performance with p < 0.05 in the test set. In contrast, the low η setup performed with log-rank p < 0.05 in 90% of the augmented realizations. Moreover, the high η setup classification was uncertain for 50% of the subjects in the testing set (for 80% agreement rate), whereas the low η setup was uncertain only in 10% of the cases. The code and part of the data are available at https://github.com/Maastro-CDS-Imaging-Group/sure. Discussion. Estimating image biomarker model performance based only on the original GTV segmentation without considering segmentation uncertainty may be deceiving. The model might result in a significant stratification performance, but can be unstable for delineation variations, which are inherent to manual segmentation. Simulating segmentation uncertainty using the method described allows for more stable image biomarker estimation, selection, and model development. The segmentation uncertainty estimation method described here is universal and can be extended to estimate other protocol uncertainties (such as image acquisition and pre-processing).

This paper presents the behavior of decision makers, the possible choices and the strategies 1 resulting from the uncertainties related to the integration of renewable energies. Its uncertainties 2 are the risks associated with the volatility of renewable sources, the dynamics of energy production 3 as well as the planning and operation of the electricity grid. The goal is to model the risk-averse 4 decision-maker’s behavior and the choice of integrating renewable energies into the electrical system. 5 Following a bibliographic approach, we expose a methodology to model the decision-maker’s 6 behavior(risk aversion and predilection for risk) to risk taking. The risk-averse decision maker may 7 adopt nonlinear utility functions. Risk aversion is a behavior that reflects the desire to avoid risk 8 decisions and thus reduces the risk of adverse consequences. A decision support tool is provided to 9 the decision-maker to choose a best-fit strategy based on his preferences. The rational and risk-averse 10 decision-maker would seek to maximize a concave utility function instead of seeking to minimize its 11 cost. Taste or aversion to risk can be modeled by a thematic function of utility.

Yearly, 1,500,000 cases of leishmaniasis are diagnosed, causing thousands of deaths. To advance in its therapy, we present an interdisciplinary protocol that unifies ethnobotanical knowledge of natural compounds and the latest bioinformatics advances to respond to an orphan disease such as leishmaniasis and specifically the one caused by Leishmania amazonensis. The use of ethnobotanical information serves as a basis for the development of new drugs, a field in which computer-aided drug design (CADD) has been a revolution. Taking this information from Amazonian communities, located in the area with the highest prevalence of this disease, a protocol has been designed to verify new leads. Moreover, a method has been developed that allows the evaluation of lead molecules, and the improvement of their affinity and specificity against therapeutic targets. Through this approach, deguelin has been identified as a good lead to treat the infection due to its potential as an ornithine decarboxylase (ODC) inhibitor, a key enzyme in Leishmania development. Using an in silico-generated combinatorial library followed by docking approaches, we have found deguelin derivatives with better affinity and specificity against ODC than the original compound, suggesting that this approach could be adapted for developing new drugs against leishmaniasis.

The Physics Informed Neural Networks framework is applied to the understanding of the dynamics of Coronavirus of 2019. To provide the governing system of equations used by the framework, the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Death mathematical model is used. The study focused on finding the patterns of the dynamics of the disease which involves predicting the infection rate, recovery rate and death rate; thus predicting the active infections, total recovered, susceptible and deceased at any required time. The study used data that was collected on the dynamics of COVID-19 from the Kingdom of Eswatini between March 2020 and September 2021. The obtained results showed less errors thus making highly accurate predictions.

COVID-19 has been extremely difficult to control. The lack of understanding of key aspects of pandemics has affected virus transmission. On the other hand, there is a demand to incorporate Computational Thinking (CT) in the curricula with applications in STEM. However, there are still no exemplars in the curriculum that apply CT to real-world problems such as controlling a pandemic or other similar global crises. In this paper, we fill this gap by proposing exemplars of CT for modeling the pandemic. We designed exemplars following the three pillars of the APEC InMside framework for CT: algorithmic thinking, computational modeling, and machine learning. For each pillar, we designed a progressive sequence of activities that covers from elementary to high school. In an experimental study with elementary and middle school students from 2 schools of high vulnerability, we found that the computational modeling exemplar can be implemented by teachers and correctly understood by students. We conclude that it is feasible to introduce the exemplars at all grade levels, and that this is a powerful example of STEM integration that helps reflect and tackle real-world and challenging public health problems of great impact for students and their families.

In this study, I extend the Fama and French five-factor asset pricing model with a sixth factor, namely, carbon risk, to investigate its impact on equity returns. To measure carbon risk, a new factor ‘pollutant minus green,’ is developed using the difference between the weighted average returns of pollutant and green firms across 51 developed and emerging countries across four categories—North America, Europe, Emerging Markets, and the Asia Pacific. The results reveal that North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific markets have a carbon risk premium that gets eliminated in small-cap firms. The carbon risk factor is further tested in left-hand side (LHS) test asset portfolios and found to be more pronounced with size-effect anomaly; specifically, small stock firms report greater declining average returns because of more exposure than the mega-cap stocks to carbon dioxide emissions. Furthermore, size-effect anomaly prevails with profitability and investment factors across firms. Therefore, high profitability, as well as high investment small firms, show a greater decline than the big stock firms in average returns when their carbon dioxide emissions increase. The asset pricing model evaluation is carried out through the Gibbons, Ross, and Shanken test. The six-factor model directed at capturing carbon risk patterns in average equity returns performs better than the three-factor and five-factor models of Fama and French (1993 and 2015) in the majority of categories under 3x3 sorting and compete with both Fama and French model under 2x4x4 sorted LHS portfolios. The finding of this study offers various useful applications for investors, policymakers, brokers, corporations, governmental pollution abatement institutions, and other stakeholders who wish to obtain carbon risk premium.

As RPG has high sales and profits, lots of developers have supplied various RPG to market but it changed to mass production type with sensational advertising, low quality and excessive charging and similar contents which affects game market and users’ game play experience. The author of this paper studied ways to improve mobile RPG by collecting and analyzing users’ reviews using crawling on Google Play Store. The author of this paper used topic modeling that uses text mining technique and LDA (Latent Dirichlet Allocation) to extract meaningful information from collected big data and visualized it. Inferring users’ reviews, figuring out opinions objectively and seeking ways to improve games are helpful in improving mobile RPG that can be played continuously.

This study explores the use of satellite-based LULC (Land Use / Land Cover) data while simultaneously correcting potential evapotranspiration (PET) input with Leaf Area Index (LAI) to increase the performance of a physically distributed hydrologic model. The mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM) was selected for this purpose due to its unique features. Since LAI input informs the model about vegetation dynamics, we incorporated the LAI based PET correction option together with multi-year LULC data. The Globcover land cover data was selected for the single land cover cases, and hybrid of CORINE (coordination of information on the environment) and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) land cover datasets were chosen for the cases with multiple land cover datasets. These two datasets complement each other since MODIS has no separate forest class but more frequent (yearly) observations than CORINE. Calibration period spans from 1990 to 2006 and corresponding NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency) values varies between 0.23 and 0.42, while the validation period spans from 2007 to 2010 and corresponding NSE values are between 0.13 and 0.39. The results revealed that the best performance is obtained when multiple land cover datasets are provided to the model and LAI data is used to correct PET, instead of default aspect-based PET correction in mHM. This study suggests that to minimize errors due to parameter uncertainties in physically distributed hydrologic models, adequate information can be supplied to the model with care taken to avoid over-parameterizing the model.

Modern agent-based models (ABM) and other simulation models require evaluation and testing of many different parameters. Managing that testing for large scale parameter sweeps (grid searches) as well as storing simulation data requires multiple, potentially customizable steps that may vary across simulations. Furthermore, parameter testing, processing, and analysis are slowed if simulation and processing jobs cannot be shared across teammates or computational resources. While high-performance computing (HPC) has become increasingly available, models can often be tested faster through the use of multiple computers and HPC resources. To address these issues, we created the Distributed Automated Parameter Testing (DAPT) Python package. By hosting parameters in an online (and often free) "database", multiple individuals can run parameter sets simultaneously in a distributed fashion, enabling ad hoc crowdsourcing of computational power. Combining this with a flexible, scriptable tool set, teams can evaluate models and assess their underlying hypotheses quickly. Here we describe DAPT and provide an example demonstrating its use.

The emergence of the COVID-19 outbreak has caused a pandemic situation in over 210 countries. Controlling the spread of this disease has proven difficult despite several resources employed. Millions of hospitalization and deaths have been observed, and thousands of cases daily with many measures in place. Due to the complex nature of COVID-19, we proposed a system of time-fractional equations to understand the transmission of the disease better. Nonlocality involved in the model has made fractional differential equations appropriate for modeling the behavior. However, solving these types of models is computationally demanding. Our proposed generalized compartmental COVID-19 model incorporates effective contact rate, transition rate (from exposed quarantine and recovered to susceptible and infected quarantined individuals), quarantine rate, disease-induced death rate, natural death rate, natural recovery rate, recovery rate of quarantine infected for a holistic study of the coronavirus disease. A detailed analysis of the proposed model is carried out, including the existence and uniqueness of solutions, local and global stability analysis of the disease-free equilibrium analysis, and sensitivity analysis. Furthermore, numerical solutions of the proposed model are obtained with the generalized Adam-Bashforth-Moulton method developed for the fractional order model. Our analysis and solutions profile show that each of these incorporated parameters is very important in controlling the spread of COVID-19, especially quarantining exposed and infected individuals and the effective contact rate. Based on the results with different fractional order, we observe that there seems to be a third or even fourth wave of the spike in cases of COVID-19, which is what is happening right now in many countries.