Assuming a Winterberg model for space where the vacuum consists of a very stiff two component superfluid made up of positive and negative mass planckions, theory is the hypothesis, that Planck charge, , was created at the same time as Planck mass. Moreover, the repulsive force that like-mass planckions experience is, in reality, due to the electrostatic force of repulsion between like charges. These forces also give rise to what appears to be a gravitational force of attraction between two like planckions, but this is an illusion. In reality, gravity is electrostatic in origin if our model is correct. We determine the spring constant associated with planckion masses, and find that, , where equals Apery's constant, , and, , is the relaxed, i.e., , number density of the positive and negative mass planckions. In the present epoch, we estimate that, equals, , and the relaxed distance of separation between nearest neighbor positive, or negative, planckion pairs is, These values were determined using box quantization for the positive and negative mass planckions, and considering transitions between energy states, much like as in the hydrogen atom. For the cosmos as a whole, given a net smeared macroscopic gravitational field of, , due to all the ordinary, and bound, matter contained within the observable universe, an average displacement from equilibrium for the planckion masses is a mere , within the vacuum made up of these particles. On the surface of the earth, where, , the displacement amounts to, . All of these displacements are due to increased gravitational pressure within the vacuum, which in turn are caused by applied gravitational fields. The gravitational potential is also derived and directly related to gravitational pressure.

This article attempts to formulate a mathematical model for a potential explanation regarding the unavoidable impact of a rigid body's peculiar shape on the seamless flow over it. The solid body completely immersed in a Newtonian fluid and respectively has a relative open circuit flow on it will typically experience various observable phenomena like flow separation, flow transition, down-wash, stalling at the higher angle of attack, stalling velocity and how cambered airfoil can typically generate lift at a zero incidence angle. This article respectively represents an understanding of the laminar flow over a rigid body's external surface with due respect to its distinctive shape and size. This working paper formulates a more realistic and simplified mathematical model for open circuit laminar flow over a body, based on the historical data of aerodynamics and theoretical mechanics. This is intended to properly estimate forces on the continuous surface of the body in a laminar flow, to properly explain, understand and predict mentioned phenomena. Most of all the mechanism of streamline formation and its deformation with due regards to flow, shape and size of the body in an open-circuit laminar are formulated mathematically to enhance better design theory which can reduce experimentation while designing a streamlined body.

In this work, we study the dynamical behaviors of the electromagnetic fields and material responses in the hyperbolic metamaterial consisting of periodically arranged metallic and dielectric layers. The thickness of each unit cell is assumed to be much smaller than the wavelength of the electromagnetic waves, so the effective medium concept can be applied. When electromagnetic (EM) fields are present, the responses of the medium in the directions parallel to and perpendicular to the layers are like that of Drude and Lorentz media, respectively. We derive the energy density of the EM fields and the power loss in the effective medium based on Poynting theorem and the dynamical equations of the polarization field. We also show that the Lagrangian density of the system can be constructed. The Euler-Lagrangian equations yield the correct dynamical equations of the electromagnetic fields and the polarization field in the medium. The canonical momentum conjugates to every dynamical field can be derived from the Lagrangian density via differentiation or variation with respect to that field. We apply Legendre transformation to this system, and find that the resultant Hamitonian density is identical to the energy density, up to an irrelevant divergence term.

The QBIT theory is an attempt toward solving the problem of consciousness based on empirical evidence provided by various scientific disciplines including quantum mechanics, biology, information theory, and thermodynamics. This theory formulates the problem of consciousness in the following four questions: (1) What is the nature of qualia? (2) How are qualia generated? (3) Why are qualia subjective? (4) Why does a quale have a particular quality or meaning?In sum, the QBIT theory proposes that (1) when a pack of quantum information is compressed beyond a certain threshold, a quale is generated; (2) a quale is a superdense pack of maximally entangled qubits in a pure state; (3) when information-theoretic certainty of a system about an external stimulus exceeds a particular level, the system becomes conscious of that stimulus; (4) subjectivity of consciousness is due to the fact that maximally entangled pure states are private and unshareable.

The novelty of 21st-century physics is the development of the “superfluid quantum vacuum” model, also named “superfluid quantum space” SQS. This SQS is replacing space-time as the fundamental arena of the universe. It also represents the model that has the potential of unifying four fundamental forces of the universe. SQS in this article is represented as the time-invariant fundamental field of the universe where time is merely the duration of material changes.

Mathematics first is a logical system. But, the Mathematics Crisis showed that we cannot have a logical self-consistent mathematics system. Physics is a kind of applied science. It first need be valid to invent new production and understand new observation. In one theory of physics, the studied object is usually defined as an abstract concept. For example, the Sun is defined as a point particle in the Newtonian theory of gravity. In different theories of physics, the abstract concept for a same object is different. It determines that logical self-consistent is not needed for different theories of physics. Physics only can be developed from observation and experiment. But, in the past a century, physicists’ main attempt is to have a standard model, such as the Grand Unification or the Theory for Everything, from mathematics derivation. Therefore, the current attempt to develop new physics is questioned. In recent, the strong gravitational field was studied. It is found that the fundamental physical constants which are measured in the weak field shall be varied in a super strong field. For the two reasons, modern physics need be advanced greatly.

There must exist a reformulation of quantum field theory, even at low energies, which does not depend on classical time. The octonionic theory proposes such a reformulation, leading to a pre-quantum pre-spacetime theory. The ingredients for constructing such a theory, which is also a unification of the standard model with gravitation, are : (i) the pre-quantum theory of trace dynamics – a matrix-valued Lagrangian dynamics, (ii) the spectral action principle of non-commutative geometry, (iii) the number system known as the octonions, for constructing a non-commutative manifold and for defining elementary particles via Clifford algebras, (iv) a Lagrangian with $E_8 \times E_8$ symmetry. The split bioctonions define a sixteen dimensional space (with left-right symmetry) whose geometry (evolving in Connes time) relates to the four known fundamental forces, while predicting two new forces, $SU(3)_{grav}$ and $U(1)_{grav}$. This latter interaction is possibly the theoretical origin of MOND. Coupling constants of the standard model result from left-right symmetry breaking, and their values are theoretically determined by the characteristic equation of the exceptional Jordan algebra of the octonions. The quantum-to-classical transition, precipitated by the entanglement of a critical number of fermions, is responsible for the emergence of classical spacetime, and also for the familiar formulation of quantum theory on a spacetime background.

The purpose of this study is to estimate the mean transitioning probabilities from a Healthy state to malaria positive uncomplicated state or to malaria positive severe state. It also classifies the various transitioning probabilities of moving through the various states based on some baseline characteristics. Malaria test results for 2019 over a 12-month period were collected from the University of Ghana school clinic. An H-U model for the study was developed and the transition rates from the cross-sectional data are indicated. With two states Healthy (H) and Uncomplicated (U) forming a state space, there were four possible transitions. The results show that the probability of transitioning from a Healthy state to a malaria positive state is 0.03% while the probability that an individual will remain at Healthy state (H) after the test is 99.73%. It was found that if an individual is already positive and has taken medication the probability that its second test came out negative is 6.45% while the chances that it will remain positive but uncomplicated is 93.55%. The study also showed that in the long run, about 95.98% of persons who visited the student clinic with malaria symptoms recorded negative tests for malaria parasite while about 4% recorded positive for malaria. In terms of disaggregation by gender, it was realized that the number of reported negative test results were higher for females (97.08%) than for males (96.13%). However, the infection rate is higher for males (3.87%) than females (2.92%). It is recommended that in as much as the University of Ghana has two health centers (a clinic and hospital), there should be a centralized system to track students’ health so research done would not be biased.

The paper presents the design and the implementation of different advanced control strategies that are applied to a nonlinear model of a thermal unit. A data–driven grey–box identification approach provided the physically meaningful nonlinear continuous–time model, which represents the benchmark exploited in this work. The control problem of this thermal unit is important since it constitutes the key element of passive air conditioning systems. The advanced control schemes analysed in this paper are used to regulate the outflow air temperature of the thermal unit by exploiting the inflow air speed, whilst the inflow air temperature is considered as an external disturbance. The reliability and robustness issues of the suggested control methodologies are verified with a Monte–Carlo analysis for simulating modelling uncertainty, disturbance and measurement errors. The achieved results serve to demonstrate the effectiveness and the viable application the suggested control solutions to air conditioning systems. The benchmark model represents one of the key issues of this study, which is exploited for benchmarking different model–based and data–driven advanced control methodologies through extensive simulations. Moreover, this work highlights the main features of the proposed control schemes, while providing practitioners and heating, ventilating and air conditioning engineers with tools to design robust control strategies for air conditioning systems.

A diagnostic method is presented for analysing the large-scale behaviour of the Met Office Unified Model, which is a comprehensive atmospheric model used for weather and climate prediction. Outside the boundary layer, on scales larger than the radius of deformation, semigeostrophic theory will give an accurate approximation to the model evolution. In particular, the ageostrophic circulation required to maintain geostrophic and hydrostatic balance against prescribed forcing and a rate of change of the geostrophic pressure can be calculated. In the tropics the balance condition degenerates to the weak temperature gradient approximation. Within the boundary layer the semigeostriptic approximation has to be used because friction and rotation are equally important. Assuming the calculated pressure tendency and ageotriptic circulation match the observed model behaviour, the influence of the large-scale state and the nature of the forcing on the model response can be deduced in a straightforward way. This process is illustrated by comparing predictions of the ageotriptic circulation from the theory and the model. It is then used to show that the effects of latent heat release can be included by modifying the static stability, and to show the effect of an idealised tropical heat source on the subtropical jet. Finally the response of the ageotriptic flow to boundary layer heating in the tropics is demonstrated. These illustrations show that the model behaviour on large scales conforms with theoretical expectations, so that the results of the diagnostic can be used to aid the development of further improvements to the model.

A rigorous model for the electron is presented by generalizing the Coulomb's Law or Gauss's Law of electrostatics, using a unified theory of electricity and gravity. The permittivity of the free-space is allowed to be variable, dependent on the energy density associated with the electric field at a given location, employing generalized concepts of gravity and mass/energy density. The electric field becomes a non-linear function of the source charge, where concept of the energy density needs to be properly defined. Stable solutions are derived for a spherically symmetric, surface-charge distribution of an elementary charge. This is implemented by assuming that the gravitational field and its equivalent permittivity function is proportional to the energy density, as a simple first-order approximation, with the constant of proportionality referred to as the Unifield Electro-Gravity (UEG) constant. The stable solution with the lowest mass/energy is assumed to represent a ``static'' electron without any spin. Further, assuming that the mass/energy of a static electron is half of the total mass/energy of an electron including its spin contribution, the required UEG constant is estimated. More fundamentally, the lowest stable mass of a static elementary charged particle, its associated classical radius, and the UEG constant are related to each other by a dimensionless constant, independent of any specific value of the charge or mass of the particle. This dimensionless constant is numerologically found to be closely related to the the fine structure constant. This possible origin of the fine structure constant is further strengthened by applying the proposed theory to successfully model the Casimir effect, from which approximately the same above relationship between the UEG constant, electron's mass and classical radius, and the fine structure constant, emerges.

Several studies have shown that the traditional way of learning is not optimal when we aim to improve ICT users’ actual privacy behavior. In this research, we present a literature review of the theories that are followed in other fields to modify human behavior. Our findings show that the cognitive theory and the health belief model present optimistic results. Further, we examine various learning methods and we conclude that experiential learning is advantageous compared to other methods. In this paper aggregate the privacy behavior determinant factors found in the literature and we use the cognitive theory to we synthesize a theoretical framework. The proposed framework can be beneficial to educational policy makers and practitioners, such as public and private schools, and universities. Also, our framework provides a fertile ground for more research on experiential privacy learning and privacy behavior enhancement.

Physics of high-Tc superconducting cuprates is obscured by the effect of strong electronic correlations. One way to overcome the problem is to seek for an exact solution at least within the small cluster and expand it to the whole crystal. Such an approach is in the heart of the cluster perturbation theory (CPT). Here we develop CPT for the dynamic charge and spin susceptibilities (spin-CPT), within which the correlation effects are explicitly taken into account by the exact diagonalization. We apply spin-CPT to the effective two-band Hubbard model for the cuprates obtained from the three-band Emery model and calculate one- and two-particle correlation functions, namely, spectral function and spin and charge susceptibilities. Doping dependence of the spin susceptibility was studied within spin-CPT and CPT-RPA that is the CPT generalization of the random phase approximation (RPA). Both methods produce the low energy response at four incommensurate wave vectors in qualitative agreement to the results of the inelastic neutron scattering on overdoped cuprates.

The aim of this article is to propose a core game theory model of transaction costs wherein it is indicated how direct costs determine the probability of loss and subsequent transaction costs. The existence of optimum is proven, and the way in which exposure influences the location of the optimum is demonstrated. The decisions are described as a two-player game and it is discussed how the transaction cost sharing rule determines whether the optimum point of transaction costs is the same as the equilibrium of the game. The dispute between actors regarding changing the share of transaction costs to be paid by each party is modeled by a non-cooperative bargaining game. Requirements of efficient transaction cost sharing rules are defined, and it is posited that solution exists which is not unique. Policy conclusions are also devised based on principles of design of institutions to influence the nature of transaction costs.

This article focuses on methods for designing heuristic models within the paradigm of systems theory and in the disciplinary context of intercultural communication. The main question arises from the striking observation that the common language is insufficient to develop knowledge about human communication, especially when many factors of complexity (such as ambiguity, paradoxes, or uncertainty) are involved in the composition of an abstract research object. This epistemological, theoretical, and methodological problematic is one of the main challenges to the scientificity of anthropological theories and concepts on culture. Moreover, these questions lie at the heart of research in intercultural communication. Authors and theorists in the complexity sciences have already stressed the need, in such case, to think in terms of models or semiotic representations, since these tools of thought can mediate much more effectively than unformalized language between the heterogeneous set of perceptions arising from the field of experience, on the one hand, and the philosophical principles that organize speculative thought, on the other. This sets the scene for a reflection on the need to master the theory of heuristic models when it comes to developing scientific knowledge in the field of intercultural communication. In this essay, my first aim is to make explicit the conditions likely to ensure the heuristic value of a model, while my second aim is to clarify the operational function and required level of abstraction of certain terms such as concepts, categories, headings, models, systems, or theories that are among the most commonly used by academics in their descriptive accounts or explanatory hypotheses. To achieve this second objective, I propose to create cognitive meta-categories to identify the three (nominal, cardinal or ordinal) roles of words in the reference grids we use to classify our ideas, and to specify how to use these meta-categories in the construction of our heuristic models. Alongside the theoretical presentation, examples of application are provided, almost all of which are drawn from my own research into the increased cultural vigilance of the majority population in Quebec since the reasonable accommodation crisis in this French-speaking province of Canada. The typology I propose will perhaps help to avoid the confusions regularly committed by authors who attribute only cosmetic functions to words that nevertheless have a highly heuristic value, and who forget to consider the logical leaps of their theoretical thinking in the construction of heuristic models.

Unification based upon the generalisation of proper time is proposed as a comprehensive framework to account for the fundamental structure of matter, in a manner contrasting with the more familiar approach based on extra dimensions of space. The elementary properties of matter to be incorporated include the Standard Model of particle physics together with a source for the dark sector and a coherent formalism for quantum gravity. We elaborate upon the manner in which all such material phenomena and empirical properties as distributed in an extended 4-dimensional spacetime can be encompassed within, and derived from, the continuous flow of time alone via a generalised arithmetic form for infinitesimal intervals of proper time. This approach will also be compared and contrasted with the basic structure of causal set theory as a means of demonstrating how it is possible to construct a full physical theory essentially from elements of time alone, as explicitly developed from the most elementary level. The conception of time as utilised and elucidated in this theory, with emphasis upon the causal continuum properties and as the basis for unification, will be clarified.

Magnetic properties of soft magnetic composites are highly sensitive to the processing conditions. In this paper we focus on the possibility to model this effect using the Jiles-Atherton-Sablik theory. It is assumed that the effect of varying compaction pressure may be described by direct introduction of stress-dependent term in the model equations. The values of model parameters are kept constant. Verification of the proposed approach is carried out using measurement data from self-developed iron-based composite cores.

In the first part of this talk we review some prerequisites for and essential arguments involved in the construction of the thermal-ground-state estimate for the deconfining phase in the thermodynamics of SU(2) Quantum Yang-Mills theory and how this structure supports its distinct excitations. The second part applies deconfining SU(2) Yang-Mills thermodynamics to the Cosmic Microwave Background in view of (i) a modified temperature-redshift relation with an interesting link to correlation-length criticality in the 3D Ising model, (ii) the implied minimal changes in the dark sector of the cosmological model, and (iii) best-fit parameter values of this model when confronted with the spectra of the angular two-point functions TT, TE, and EE, excluding the low-$l$ physics. The latter, which is treated in an incomplete way because of the omission of radiative effects, is addressed in passing towards future work.

The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of discoursal approach on Iranian intermediate EFL learners’ reading comprehension ability. Quick Placement Test (QPT) was used to select 60 intermediate EFL learners as the participants of this study. Then, they were randomly divided into experimental and control groups. Each consisted of 30 learners. Prior to the treatment, the participants of both groups were given a pretest to ensure their reading comprehension. The experimental group was exposed to the Hymes’ model. In the control group the researcher used placebo for teaching reading skill. Then a posttest was administered to both groups. An Independent samples t-test between posttests of the study and a paired-samples t-test between the pretest and posttest of the groups of the study were run. The results of the study revealed and emphasized that the Hymes’ model improved the learners’ reading comprehension.

In 2015, the Self-Action Leadership Theory—a qualitative, nomological expansion of self-leadership theory rooted in atmospheric and astronomical metaphor aimed at expanding the personal freedom of individuals, organizations, and nations by bolstering the existential growth of individuals through a series of Maslow-esque stages of holistic, personal development. This article introduces an accompanying, practitioner-based Model of Self-Action Leadership (SAL) aimed at the implicit enhancement of a holistic range of administrative processes through explicit training, mentoring, and coaching in the model’s general and universally-applicable principles and practices. The SAL model produces an original construct of personal leadership practice that builds upon the extant self-leadership academic canon, which dates back to 1983 (Manz, 1983). It also provides an analogue to four of the five core processes of Project Management by positioning a self-action leader (an individual) as the ongoing “project” at hand. The SAL Model is rooted in action research and was developed through a variety of self-oriented, action research projects in conjunction with a comprehensive, qualitative, analytical autoethnographic study of a scholar’s life experiences.

Fracture density, a critical parameter of unconventional reservoirs, can be used to evaluate potential of unconventional reservoirs and location of production wells. Many technologies, such as amplitude variation with offset and azimuth (AVOA) technology, vertical seismic profiling (VSP) technology, and multicomponent seismic technology, are generally used to predict fracture of reservoirs. they can qualitatively predict fracture by analyzing seismic attributes, including seismic wave amplitudes, seismic wave velocities, which are sensitive to fracture. However, it is important to quantitatively describe fracture of reservoirs. In this study, based on a double-layer model, the relationships between fracture density and the double-layer model’s physical parameters, such as velocity of fast shear-wave, velocity of slow shear-wave, and density, were established, and then a powerful quantitative prediction method for fracture density was proposed dramatically. Afterwards, the Hudson model for crack was used to test the applicability of the method. The result shown that the quantitative prediction method for fracture density can be applied suitable to the Hudson model for crack. Finally, the result of validation models indicated that the method can predict fracture density effective, in which absolute relative deviation (ARD) were less than 5% and root-mean-square error (RMSE) was 4.88×10-3.

In this study, by employing the think-aloud model, schema theory and the perceptual cycle model (PCM) from the perspective of vulnerable road traffic participants, the current traffic imperfections of a target section in Wudaokou were analyzed to explore potential improvement measures to enhance safety. Specifically, the present study recruited 30 local volunteers, which were equally divided into a pedestrian group, bicyclist group and E-cyclist group. The research procedure was mainly divided into three steps. By using the think-aloud method, we analyzed and recorded the contents of oral reports of the experimental road section. Then, through translation, segmentation, coding, analysis and other techniques, we sorted and studied the report data and drew a conclusion that was universal in improving the current road traffic conditions. It is hoped that through this study, on the one hand, the applicability of the oral report method, schema theory and perceptual cycle model in road traffic safety can be verified, and, on the other hand, some better improvement measures can be extracted for the road traffic state of the Wudaokou section.

Our study essentially concerns the dynamic behavior of an SIRS epidemic model in discrete time. Two equilibrium points are obtained; one is disease-free while the other is endemic. We are interested in the endemic fixed point as well as its asymptotic stability. Depending on the parameters which are estimated using the data from US Department of health and SIRS modelling with optimization, two Flip and Transcritical bifurcations appear. We illustrate their diagrams, as well as their bifurcation curves using the method of Carcasses \cite{carcasses1993determination,carcasses1995singularities} for the Flip bifurcation and by an implicit function deduced from such an equation for the Transcritical bifurcation. We use the scanning of the parametric plane to have a global view of the behavior of the model and to highlight the zones of stability of the existing singularities. A superposition of the bifurcation curves with the parametric plane can show the overlap of the curves with the boundaries of the stability domains, which confirms the smooth running of the simulation and its correspondence with the theory, we finish this article with constrained optimal control applied to infection rate and recruitment rate for an SIRS discrete epidemic model. Pontryagin's maximum principle is used to determine these optimal controls. Finally using COVID-19 data in the USA, we obtain results that demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy to mitigate the spread of the pandemic.

Despite the expectation that social media use in the public sector contributes to enhancing government's transparency, few studies have been investigated whether social media use actually leads to more disclosure during environmental incidents in practice and how social media influence local governments and their officials' information disclosure. In this article, we model information disclosure during environmental incidents as an evolutionary game process between the central government and local government in social media context, and examine the internal mechanism that how social media influence the progress of information disclosure during environmental incidents. The findings indicate that social media plays an active constructive role in central-local government game relations. Specific- ally, social media can provides an efficient information channels for the central government supervise regional officials in environmental incidents, and thus improves its supervision efficiency, and it also provides an important means for internet mobilization and online-offline interaction by encouraging the public exchange information and express their views, and in turn forces local governments and their officials tend to disclosure ahead.

Since the emergence of the quantified self movement, users aim at health behavior change, but only those who are sufficiently motivated and competent with the tools will succeed. Our literature review shows that theoretical models for quantified self exist but they are too abstract to guide the design of effective user support systems. Here, we propose principles linking theory and implementation to arrive at a hierarchical model for an adaptable and personalized self-quantification system for physical activity support. We show that such a modeling approach should include a multi-factors user model (activity, context, personality, motivation), a hierarchy of multiple time scales (week, day, hour), and a multi-criteria decision analysis (user activity preference, user measured activity, external parameters). This theoretical groundwork, which should facilitate the design of more effective solutions, has now to be validated by further empirical research.

In this work a new pre-tuning multivariable PID controllers method for quadrotors is put forward. A procedure based on LQR/LQG theory is proposed for attitude and altitude control. With the aim of analyzing performance and robustness of the proposed method, a non-linear mathematical model of the DJI-F450 quadrotor is employed, where rotors dynamics, togheter with sensors drift/bias properties and noise characteristics of low-cost comercial sensors typically used in this type of applications (such as MARG with MEMS technology and LIDAR) are considered. In order to estimate the state vector and compensate bias/drift effects on rate gyros of the MARG, a combination of filtering and data fusion algorithms (Kalman filter and Madgwick algorithm for attitude estimation) are proposed and implemented. Performance and robutsness analysis of the control system is carried out by means of numerical simulations, which take into account the presence of uncertainty in the plant model and external disturbances. The obtained results show that the proposed pre-tuning method for multivariable PID controller is robust with respect to: a) parametric uncertainty in the plant model, b) disturbances acting at the plant input, c) sensors measurement and estimation errors.

Here, applying the theory of the generalization of the Boltzmann constant in curved space-time, we will model the mechanism by which elementary particles are formed. We will determine the relationship between gravity and each of the elementary particles that form the standard model following analogies to that of stellar bodies. In order to achieve our goal, we will propose new models for photons, quarks and gluons; with this, we will demonstrate why there are stable and unstable elementary particles; why the first family of elementary particles forms hadrons and why the second and third families cannot form hadrons; why the fermions comply with the Pauli exclusion principle and why the bosons do not comply with the Pauli exclusion principle, etc. Finally, we will analyse the generalization of the ADS/CFT correspondence and propose a theory of everything (T.O.E.).

We compare Chiral Perturbation Theory (ChPT) and the Linear Sigma Model (LSM) as realizations of low energy QCD for light mesons in a chirally imbalanced medium. The relations between the low-energy constants of the Chiral Lagrangian and the corresponding constants of the Linear Sigma Model are established as well as the expressions for the decay constant of $\pi $-meson in the medium and for the mass of the $a_0$. In the large $N_c$ count taken from QCD the correspondence of ChPT and LSM is remarkably good and give a solid ground for search of chiral imbalance manifestation in pion physics. A possible experimental detection of chiral imbalance (and therefore a phase with Local Parity Breaking) is outlined in the charged pion decays inside the fireball.

The textbook analysis of vacuum energy density (VED) in flat spacetime follows from Pauli’s lectures of 1951, in which quantum vacuum is modeled as a reservoir of free harmonic oscillators. In his lectures, Pauli shows that deriving a nearly vanishing VED is contingent upon fulfilling three corollary conditions called polynomial-in-mass-constraints. The goal of this work is to evaluate Pauli’s constraints against the Standard Model parameters and the Higgs mechanism of spontaneous symmetry breaking.

Within the scope of observed materialistic physical systems, without addressing the roots of H-Bar and big G, it is impossible to construct a workable model of final unification. With reference to our earlier proposed three large atomic gravitational constants, it is possible to reform and compactify the 10 dimensional String theory to 3+1 dimensions

There must exist a reformulation of quantum field theory which does not refer to classical time. We propose a pre-quantum, pre-spacetime theory, which is a matrix-valued Lagrangian dynamics for gravity, Yang-Mills fields, and fermions. The definition of spin in this theory leads us to an eight dimensional octonionic space-time. The algebra of the octonions reveals the standard model; model parameters are determined by roots of the cubic characteristic equation of the exceptional Jordan algebra. We derive the asymptotic low energy value 1/137 of the fine structure constant, and predict the existence of universally interacting spin one Lorentz bosons, which replace the hypothesised graviton. Gravity is not to be quantized, but is an emergent four-dimensional classical phenomenon, precipitated by the spontaneous localisation of highly entangled fermions.

The article obtains large deviation asymptotic for sub-critical communication networks modelled as signal-interference-noise-ratio(SINR) random networks. To achieve this, we define the empirical power measure and the empirical connectivity measure, as well as prove joint large deviation principles(LDPs) for the two empirical measures on two different scales. Using the joint LDPs, we prove an Asymptotic equipartition property(AEP) for wireless telecommunication Networks modelled as the subcritical SINR random networks. Further, we prove a Local Large deviation principle(LLDP) for the sub-critical SINR random network. From the LLDPs, we prove the large deviation principle, and a classical McMillan Theorem for the stochastic SINR model processes. Note that, the LDPs for the empirical measures of this stochastic SINR random network model were derived on spaces of measures equipped with the $\tau-$ topology, and the LLDPs were deduced in the space of SINR model process without any topological limitations. We motivate the study by describing a possible anomaly detection test for SINR random networks.

A construction for the systems of natural and real numbers is presented in Zermelo-Fraenkel Set Thoery, that allows for simple proofs of the properties of these systems, and practical and mathematical applications. A practical application is discussed, in the form of a Simple and Linear Fast Adder (Patent Pending). Applications to finite group theory and analysis are also presented. A method is illustrated for finding the automorphisms of any finite group $G$, which consists of defining a canonical block form for finite groups. Examples are given, to illustrate the procedure for finding all groups of $n$ elements along with their automorphisms. The canonical block form of the symmetry group $\Delta_4$ is provided along with its automorphisms. The construction of natural numbers is naturally generalized to provide a simple and sound construction of the continuum with order and addition properties, and where a real number is an infinite set of natural numbers. A basic outline of analysis is proposed with a fast derivative algorithm. Under this representation, a countable sequence of real numbers is represented by a single real number. Furthermore, an infinite $\infty\times\infty$ real-valued matrix is represented with a single real number. A real function is represented by a set of real numbers, and a countable sequence of real functions is also represented by a set of real numbers. In general, mathematical objects can be represented using the smallest possible data type and these representations are calculable. In the last section, mathematical objects of all types are well assigned to tree structures in a proposed type hierarchy.

Digital health research is an emerging discipline that requires easy-to-understand theoretical frameworks and implementation models for digital health providers in health and social care settings. The COVID-19 pandemic has heightened demand for digital health discipline-specific instruction on ‘how to’ manage evidence-based digital health transformation. Access to the use of these models guarantees that digital health providers can investigate phenomena using safe and suitable approaches and methods to conduct research and identify answers to challenges and problems that arise in health and social care settings. The COMPASS theory is designed to aid transformation of health and social care environments. A navigational rose of primary quadrants is divided by four main compass points, with person-centred care being central to the philosophy. Two axes produce Cartesian planes that intersect to form a box plot, which can be used to discover human and physical resource weightings to augment digital health research design and implementation. A third continuum highlights stakeholders' capabilities, critical for any multidisciplinary study. The COMPASS mnemonic guides end-users through the process of design, development, implementation, evaluation, and communication of digital health transformations. The theory's foundations are presented and explained in context of the 'new normal' of health and social care delivery.

Historically, the lack of comprehensive and real-time data is the main challenge in city sustainability assessments. However, with the increase in the availability of crowdsourced data over the last decade, a rich and real-time data source provides detailed images of urban systems. This has opened up new opportunities for practitioners, including geographers, social researchers, and data scientists, to gather and utilize social media data as a core source for studying cities and assessing their sustainability. This paper proposes an assessment model for the sustainability of cities based on crowdsourced data and the principles of General System Theory. The model aims to utilize crowdsourced data for the analysis and decision-making processes to enhance the sustainability and resilience of smart future cities.

The purposes of this study are based upon the theory of planned behavior (TPB) to examine the impact of past experiences of contract farming on selecting a specific type of contract farming in the future and then compare different psychological factors in the TPB for different potential contract farmer statuses. These statuses include homesteaders, farmers from cooperative farms, farmers from production and sales teams, professional farmers, and brokers. The impact of factors in the TPB for a particular contract type on potential contract farmers is further to compute. To this end, data are collected in three major sweet potato production areas in Taiwan. The results show that the farmers’ past contract farming experience does not influence the selection of the contract in the future. As for the selection of contract type, strengthening the perception and motivating the behavioral intention of contract farming for cooperative farms will increase the probability of selecting an unclassified sweet potato size contract. On the other hand, enhancing perceived behavioral control factors and behavioral intention factors for professional farmers and brokers is apt to have a relatively high probability of selecting those types involving the highest amount or the best price to obtain the best deal.

The objective of this paper is to investigate the convergence of coupling-parameter expansion-based solutions to Ornstein-Zernike equation in liquid state theory. The analytically solved Baxter's adhesive hard sphere model is analyzed first using coupling-parameter expansion. It is found that the expansion provides accurate approximations to solutions - including the liquid-vapor phase diagram - in most parts of the phase plane. However, it fails to converge in the region where the model has only complex solutions. Similar analysis and results are, then, obtained using analytical solutions within the mean spherical approximation for the hard-core Yukawa potential. Next, convergence of the expansion is analyzed for the Lennard-Jonnes potential using an accurate density-dependent bridge function in the closure relation. Numerical results are presented which show convergence of correlation functions, compressibility versus density profiles, etc., in the single as well as two phase regions. Computed liquid-vapor phase diagrams, using two independent schemes employing the converged profiles, compare excellently with simulation data. Results obtained for the generalized Lennard-Jonnes potential, with varying repulsive exponent, also compare well with simulation data. All these results together establish the coupling-parameter expansion as a practical tool for studying single component fluid phases modeled via general pair-potentials.

Recently, the awareness of energy conservation, carbon emission reduction, and environmental protection in Taiwan has begun to gradually improve, and bicycles have become an important vehicle for residents. In 2009, Kaohsiung began promoting public bicycle sharing. The number of users in that year amounted to 140,000. By 2015, the accumulated number of users reached nine million. This study adopted the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) to explore the factors influencing the behavioral intentions of public bicycle users, including the three dimensions of attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control, and probed into the relationship between the factors influencing the behavioral intentions of public bicycle users in Kaohsiung City and the dimensions. This study used a questionnaire to collect data and SPSS & AMOS for statistical analysis. The empirical results demonstrated that the most prominent factors influencing the behavioral intentions of public bicycle users in Kaohsiung City included perceived behavioral control, attitude, and subjective norm, in order. Among the influencing factors in the three dimensions, personal interests, main groups, and self-competence had a positive and significant correlation. Administrators should provide more incentives related to the three influencing factors to encourage the public in Kaohsiung City to use public bicycles more frequently as their short-distance travel mode, so as to achieve the purposes of saving energy, reducing carbon emissions, and protecting the urban environment.

In order to establish a new discipline specializing in accident science from the perspective of safety science. Under the guidance of the current research theories and methods of safety science, combined with the research paradigm of humanities and social medicine, this paper puts forward new viewpoints, new theories and new models about accident research. First of all, through literature retrieval, this paper analyzes the relevant research results of accidents at home and abroad, and expounds the existing problems and the basic trend of accident science research. Secondly, it puts forward eight kinds of attribute relations of the accident, and makes clear the characteristics and connotation of the accident. In the study of accident types, a hierarchical classification model based on accident cognition is created for the first time. It also points out the logical relevance of five levels of accident science research and the realistic relevance of three levels. At the same time, according to the thought of science of science, this paper puts forward a new definition of safety under the thinking of accident science and other basic concepts related to safety science, and explains the connotation. In addition, it creates and constructs the basic concept of accident science, establishes the conceptual model of accident science, and points out the “3-4-5” model of accident science research and its connotation. Thirdly, draw lessons from the interdisciplinary paradigm to study the relevant theoretical basis and discipline classification relationship of accident science, and construct the tree of accident science. Finally, the research contents of three main aspects of accident science are summarized. The results show that the research results in this paper not only play a fundamental role in the basic construction of accident science, but also further enrich and perfect the discipline system of safety science, which has a certain theoretical significance.

We delve into the axion-dilaton model within the supergravity framework, with a specific focus on the intricacies of domain wall construction and stability. Employing holographic vitrification, we unravel the dynamics of domain wall formation in gauge theories featuring periodic vacuum structures. Our model, incorporating a QCD-like axion term and a stabilizing dilaton, undergoes scrutiny for conductivity variations under weak disorder. The investigation reveals the model's resilience, manifesting near-perfect conductivity under mild disorder conditions. However, the rigorous mathematical motivation for the holographic setup demands further elucidation. The scattered nature of our results prompts the necessity for a more systematic interpretation of QCD phenomena and conductivity transitions. This study contributes to the mathematical understanding of the axion-dilaton model's behavior, highlighting the imperative for a refined holographic framework and a more coherent interpretation of observed phenomena.

We develop and apply new physics theory. The theory suggests specific unfound elementary particles. The theory suggests specific constituents of dark matter. We apply those results. We explain ratios of dark matter amounts to ordinary matter amounts. We suggest details about galaxy formation. We suggest details about inflation. We suggest aspects regarding changes in the rate of expansion of the universe. The theory points to relationships between masses of elementary particles. We show a relationship between the strength of electromagnetism and the strength of gravity. The mathematics basis for matching known and suggesting new elementary particles extends mathematics for harmonic oscillators.

Here we will model the curvature and contraction of space-time using as a basis the equation of state of an ideal gas and the Hawking´s equation for the temperature of a black hole. We will use this mathematical model to hypothesize that the Boltzmann´s constant depends on the state of matter, that is, there is a known Boltzmann´s constant for flat space-time and an effective Boltzmann´s constant for curved space-time. This model will allow us to quantify the structure of space-time and will serve as a basis to determine the origin of gravity and the origin of elementary particles. Using the Shannon-Boltzmann-Gibbs entropy relation, we will demonstrate that information is not lost and depends on the state of matter, the information is encoded and depends on the effective Boltzmann´s constant.

In 2020 the world experienced the threat of the COVID-19 epidemic, as seniors and chronic disease patients typically try to reduce their exercise and social activities to avoid increasing the risk of infection, which could lead to increased loneliness and even many diseases. This research combining golf croquet games with AIoT companion robots constructs a home-based intelligent exercise system thus uses the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), deduces users’ intention to use this system based on perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use, and adds the needs of love and belonging, esteem, cognitive, aesthetic, and self-actualization in Maslow’s needs theory to conduct system needs analysis. The analysis results show that participants have a high level of acceptance of this system, believing that it is easy to learn and operate, can increase interaction with others, also found that this system can improve self-confirmation, satisfying the third for knowledge, feeling happy, and self-actualization needs are easier to fulfill. In the future, we shall collect and record the seniors in the process of use, so as to find out their health problems as soon as possible, expand their daily life through this exercise, and achieve the goal of happy living and health care.

Abnormal connections in brain networks of healthy people always bring the problems of cognitive impairments and degeneration of specific brain circuits, which may finally result in Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Exploring the development of the brain from normal controls (NC) to AD is an essential part of human research. Although connections changes have been found in the development, the connection mechanism that drives these changes remain incompletely understood. The purpose of this study is to explore the connection changes in brain networks in the process from NC to AD, and uncover the underlying connection mechanism that shapes the topologies of AD brain networks. In particular, we propose a model named MINM from the perspective of topology-based mutual information to achieve our aim. MINM concerns the question of estimating the connection probability between two cortical regions with the consideration of both the mutual information of their observed network topologies and their Euclidean distance in anatomical space. In addition, MINM considers establishing and deleting connections, simultaneously, during the networks modeling from the stage of NC to AD. Experiment results show that MINM is sufficient to capture an impressive range of topological properties of real brain networks such as characteristic path length, network efficiency, and transitivity, and it also provides an excellent fit to the real brain networks in degree distribution compared to experiential models. Thus, we anticipate that MINM may explain the connection mechanism for the formation of the brain network organization in AD patients.

The Oxford English Dictionary includes 17 definitions for the word “model” as a noun and other 11 as a verb. Therefore, context is necessary to understand the meaning of the word model. For in-stance, “model railways” refer to replicas of railways and trains at a smaller scale and a “model student” refers to an exemplar individual. In some cases, a specific context, like cancer research, may not be sufficient to provide one specific meaning of a model. Even if the context is narrowed, specifically to the research related to the tumour microenvironment, a “model” can be understood in a wide variety of ways, from an animal model, to a mathematical expression. This paper presents a review of the different “models” of the tumour microenvironment grouped by the different def-initions of the word into four categories: model organisms, in vitro models, mathematical models, and computational models. Then, the frequency of different meanings of the word “model” related to the tumour microenvironment is measured from the number of entries in the MEDLINE database of the United States National Library of Medicine at the National Institutes of Health. The frequency of the main components of the microenvironment and the organ-related cancers modelled are also assessed quantitatively with specific keywords. Whilst animal models, in particular xenografts and mouse models are the most common used “models”, the number of entries have been slowly de-creasing. Mathematical models, prognostic and risk models follow in frequency and these have been growing in use.

The eruption of COVID-19 patients in 215 countries worldwide has urged for robust predictive methods that can detect as early as possible the size and duration of the contagious disease and also providing precision predictions. In much recent literature reported on COVID-19, one or more essential parts of such investigation were missed. One of the crucial elements for any predictive method is that such methods should fit simultaneously as much data as possible; these data could be total infected cases, daily hospitalized cases, cumulative recovered cases, and deceased cases, and so on. Other crucial elements include sensitivity and precision of such predictive methods on the amount of data as the contagious disease evolved day by day. To show the importance of these aspects, we have evaluated the standard SIRD model and a newly introduced Gaussian-SIRD model on the development of COVID-19 in Kuwait. It is observed that the SIRD model quickly picks up the main trends of COVID-19 development, but the Gaussian-SIRD model provides precise prediction a longer period of time.

In Model-Driven Development (MDD), the models, their generation, and imposing changes on them (model transformation) are used for the development of software. Models provide a framework to start from the imagination and abstraction to create and accomplish the final system. Models create a slow and steady transition from whatness to howness, i.e. from the natural path of the generation of software. For supporting this path, the Logic and Functionality of software must be changeable during its evolution. Here we provide a brief introduction to the concept of Model Driven Development.

Stemming from the urgency of the actual situation, commercial banks need an effective credit risk management tool to limit risks. The authors went to survey, study and propose a set of factors affecting the ability of debt repayment of individual customers and conducting surveys. The topic uses data sets including 240 observation samples. Using the SPSS software to clean data and run the model based on Maddala's Binary logistics regression published in 1984 to find out the impact of each individual element of customers affecting their ability to repay such debts. Come on. The authors also specify the order of influence of each factor determining the ability to repay individual customers, thereby helping bank managers have a better visual view to make decisions for borrowing accurately, limiting risks.

Current numerical methods for simulating biophysical processes in aquatic environments are typically constructed in a grid-based Eulerian framework or as an individual-based model in a particle-based Lagrangian framework. Often, the biogeochemical processes and physical (hydrodynamic) processes occur at different time and space scales, and changes in biological processes do not affect the hydrodynamic conditions. Therefore, it is possible to develop an alternative strategy to grid-based approaches for linking hydrodynamic and biogeochemical models that can significantly improve computational efficiency for this type of linked biophysical model. In this work, we utilize a new technique which links hydrodynamic effects and biological processes through a property-carrying particle model (PCPM) in a Lagrangian/Eulerian framework. The model is tested in idealized cases and its utility is demonstrated in a practical application to Sandusky Bay. Results show the integration of Lagrangian and Eulerian approaches allows for a natural coupling of mass transport (represented by particle movements and random walk) and biological processes in water columns which is described by a nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton-detritus (NPZD) biological model. This method is far more efficient than traditional tracer based Eulerian biophysical models for 3-D simulation, particularly for a large domain and/or ensemble simulations.

The predictability of wind information in a given location is essential for the evaluation of a wind power project. Predicting wind speed accurately improves the planning of wind power generation, reducing costs and improving the use of resources. This paper seeks to predict the mean hourly wind speed in anemometric towers (at a height of 50 meters) at two locations: a coastal region and one with complex terrain characteristics. To this end, the Holt-Winters (HW), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Hybrid time-series models were used. Observational data evaluated by the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications-Version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis at the same height of the towers. The results show that the hybrid model had a better performance in relation to the others, including when compared to the evaluation with MERRA-2. For example, in terms of statistical residuals, RMSE and MAE were 0.91 and 0.62 m/s, respectively. As such, the hybrid models are a good method to forecast wind speed data for wind generation.

Configuration techniques have been used in several fields, such as the design of business process models. Sometimes these models depend on the data dependencies, being easier to describe "what" has to be done instead of "how". Configuration models enable to use a declarative representation of business processes, deciding the most appropriate work-flow in each case. Unfortunately, data dependencies among the activities and how they can affect the correct execution of the process, has been overlooked in the declarative specifications and configurable systems found in the literature. In order to find the best process configuration for optimizing the execution time of processes according to data dependencies, we propose the use of Constraint Programming paradigm with the aim of obtaining an adaptable imperative model in function of the data dependencies of the activities described declarative.

Expectation maximization (EM) algorithm is a powerful mathematical tool for estimating statistical parameter when data sample contains hidden part and observed part. EM is applied to learn finite mixture model in which the whole distribution of observed variable is average sum of partial distributions. Coverage ratio of every partial distribution is specified by the probability of hidden variable. An application of mixture model is soft clustering in which cluster is modeled by hidden variable whereas each data point can be assigned to more than one cluster and degree of such assignment is represented by the probability of hidden variable. However, such probability in traditional mixture model is simplified as a parameter, which can cause loss of valuable information. Therefore, in this research I propose a so-called conditional mixture model (CMM) in which the probability of hidden variable is modeled as a full probabilistic density function (PDF) that owns individual parameter. CMM aims to extend mixture model. I also propose an application of CMM which is called adaptive regressive model (ARM). Traditional regression model is effective when data sample is scattered equally. If data points are grouped into clusters, regression model tries to learn a unified regression function which goes through all data points. Obviously, such unified function is not effective to evaluate response variable based on grouped data points. The concept “adaptive” of ARM means that ARM solves the ineffectiveness problem by selecting the best cluster of data points firstly and then evaluating response variable within such best cluster. In order words, ARM reduces estimation space of regression model so as to gain high accuracy in calculation.

In MBSE there is yet no converged terminology. The term ’system model’ is used in different contexts in literature. In this study we elaborated the definitions and usages of the term ’system model’, to find a common definition. 104 publications have been analyzed in depth for their usage and definition as well as their meta-data e.g., the publication year and publication background to find some common patterns. While the term is gaining more interest in recent years it is used in a broad range of contexts for both analytical and synthetic use cases. Based on this three categories of system models have been defined and integrated into a more precise definition.

Objective: To use mathematical models to predict the epidemiological impact of lifting the lockdown in London, UK, and alternative strategies to help inform policy in the UK. Methods: A mathematical model for the transmission of SARS-CoV2 in London. The model was parametrised using data on notified cases, deaths, contacts, and mobility to analyse the epidemic in the UK capital. We investigated the impact of multiple non pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and combinations of these measures on future incidence of COVID-19. Results: Immediate action at the early stages of an epidemic in the affected districts would have tackled spread. While an extended lockdown is highly effective, other measures such as shielding older populations, universal testing and facemasks can all potentially contribute to a reduction of infections and deaths. However, based on current evidence it seems unlikely they will be as effective as continued lockdown. In order to achieve elimination and lift lockdown within 5 months, the best strategy seems to be a combination of weekly universal testing, contact tracing and use of facemasks, with concurrent lockdown. This approach could potentially reduce deaths by 48% compared with continued lockdown alone. Conclusions: A combination of NPIs such as universal testing, contact tracing and mask use while under lockdown would be associated with least deaths and infections. This approach would require high uptake and sustained local effort but it is potentially feasible as may lead to elimination in a relatively short time scale.

This paper describes a memory model with 2 levels of information. The lower-level stores source data, is Markov-like and unweighted. Then an upper-level ontology is created from a further 3 phases of aggregating source information, by transposing from an ensemble to a hierarchy at each level. The ontology is useful for search processes and the aggregating process transposes the information from horizontal set-based sequences to more vertical typed-based clusters. The base memory is essentially neutral, where any weighted constraints or preferences should be sent by the calling module. This therefore allows different weight sets to be imposed on the same linking structure. The success of the ontology typing is open to interpretation, but the author would suggest that when clustering text, the result was types based more on use and context, for example, 'linking' with 'structure' or 'provide' with 'web,' for a document describing distributed service-based networks. This allows the system to economise over symbol use, where links to related symbols will be clustered together. The author then conjectures that a third level would be more neural in nature and would include functions or operations to be performed on the data, along with related memory information.

Brain models present a viewpoint on the fundamental structural components of the brain and their mutual organization, generally relative to a particular concept of the brain axis. A model may be based on adult brain structure or on developmental morphogenetic aspects. Brain models usually have functional implications, depending on which functional properties derive from the postulated organization. This essay examines the present scenario about brain models, emphasizing the contrast between columnar or other longitudinal models and transverse subdivisional neuromeric models. In each case, the main functional implications and apparent problems are explored and commented. Particular attention is given to the modern molecularly based ‘prosomeric model’, which postulates a set of 20 transverse prosomeres as the developmental units that serve to construct all the cerebral parts and the particular typology of many different neuronal populations within the forebrain and the hindbrain, plus a number of additional spinal cord units. These metameric developmental units (serially repeated, but with unique molecular profiles) confer to this model remarkable functional properties based mainly on its multiplicity and modularity. Many important brain functions can be decomposed into subfunctions attended to by combined sets of neuronal elements derived from different neuromeres. Each neuromere may participate in multiple functions. Most aspects related to creation of precise order in neural connections (axonal navigation and synaptogenesis) and function is due to the influence of neuromeric anteroposterior and dorsoventral positional information. Research on neuromeric functionality aspects is increasing significantly in recent times.

Small island developing states (SIDS) traditionally face a set of challenges like the narrow economic structure, environmental issues, and dependence on a few ranges of economic activities forcing them to open the economy to the exterior. Therefore, their development model, like in Cape Verde depends on migration, remittances, dependence on aid, tourism, and state employment. The current research offers an insight about the nature of Cape Verde’s economy as a SIDS and the degree to which its economy depends on tourism and government services, both of which are supported through aid programs. Understanding Cape Verde’s development model is important to clarify the challenges the country faces, and its development needs to gather a long-term resilience and to understand if it is changing from a MIRAB (Migrations, Remittances, Aid and Bureaucracy) model into another one.

In China, the majority of mountainous regions are characterized by complex topography and a delicate, sensitive geological environment. Coupled with a generally underdeveloped infrastruc-ture and numerous unreasonable human engineering activities, these regions are often highly susceptible to geological disasters. Geological hazards can cause significant damage to human lives and property, impeding the development of mountainous areas. Consequently, researching the assessment of geological hazard vulnerability is crucial for disaster prevention, emergency management, and economic development in these regions. This study focuses on Xuanwei City and selects eight factors for evaluation, including elevation, gradient, slope aspect, normalized vegetation index, stratigraphic lithology, distance from faults, distance from rivers, and distance from roads. These factors are chosen based on a comprehensive analysis of the spatial and tem-poral distribution of geological hazards and disaster incubation conditions. Two paired models, the deterministic coefficient model + logistic regression model (CF+LR) and the information quan-tity model + logistic regression model (I+LR), were employed to quantitatively assess the study ar-ea. The accuracy of these models was evaluated using ROC curves and AUC values. The results indicate that: (1) The AUC values for the CF+LR and I+LR coupled models are 0.799 and 0.772, respectively, demonstrating that both models can objectively and reliably assess the vulnerability to geological hazards in the study area; (2) Based on the CF+LR model calculations, the geological hazard susceptibility of Xuanwei City can be categorized into four zones: extremely high suscepti-bility (6.09%), high susceptibility (31.08%), medium susceptibility (32.26%), and low susceptibility (30.57%); (3) The CF+LR model more accurately represents the evaluation results and offers a strong reference value.

Sub-Saharan social-ecological systems are undergoing changes in environmental conditions, including modifications in rainfall pattern and biodiversity loss. Consequences of such changes depend on complex causal chains which call for integrated management strategies whose efficiency could benefit from ecosystem dynamic modelling. However, ecosystem models often require lots of quantitative information for estimating parameters, which is often unavailable. Alternatively, qualitative modelling frameworks have proved useful for explaining ecosystem response to perturbations, while requiring fewer information and providing more general predictions. However, current qualitative methods have some shortcomings which may limit their utility for specific issues. In this paper, we propose the Ecological Discrete-Event Network (EDEN), an innovative qualitative dynamic modelling framework based on "if-then" rules which generates many alternative event sequences (trajectories). Based on expert knowledge, observations and literature, we use this framework to assess the effect of permanent changes in surface water and herbivores diversity on vegetation and socio-economic transitions in an East African savanna. Results show that water availability drives changes in vegetation and socio-economic transitions, while herbivore functional groups had highly contrasted effects depending on the group. This first use of EDEN in a savanna context is promising for bridging expert knowledge and ecosystem modelling.

As the problem of air pollution becomes more urgent, the precise determination of the characteristics of air pollution and the associated mechanisms of transport of pollutants becomes an increasingly urgent task. The simulation results of the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS) [18] were used as initial data sets. The area of the Crimean Peninsula (within coordinates 44.50 latitude, 33.50 longitude) in 23 - 26 January, 2019 was chosen for the study. That time concentrations of pollutants (aerosol particles with a diameter of 2.5 (PM2.5) and 10 micrometers (PM10)) steadily increased and reached the maximum value. Four kinds of meteorological data sets were used in the work. The first and second data sets were the global NCEP/NCAR and (ERA-5) re-analyses. The third and fourth meteorological data sets were obtained using the Weather tracking and Forecasting model (WRF) as domains on high-resolution grids: 9 km and 2 km. The analysis of meteorological data sets was carried out to analyze the nature of the air masses movement in the studied region. Using the HYSPLIT model simulation was carried out to determine area of the sources of negative impact. The emissions transfer from the supposed sources of negative impact on the Crimea region is analyzed. The sensitivity of simulation the inverse and direct trajectories of air masses transfer was studied based a set of simulation results. On the basis of HYSPLIT model the simulation was carried out separately using meteorological data sets having different spatial and temporal resolutions. In general, the simulation results allowed us to conclude that the HYSPLIT model in combination with high-resolution meteorological input data of the WRF model are good to identify the sources of possible negative effects on atmospheric air located at long distances from the study site.

During the past two decades of e-commerce growth, the concept of a business model has become increasingly popular. More recently, the research on this realm has grown rapidly, with diverse research activity covering a wide range of application areas. Considering the sustainable development goals, the innovative business models have brought a competitive advantage to improve the sustainability performance of organizations. The concept of the sustainable business model describes the rationale of how an organization creates, delivers, and captures value, in economic, social, cultural, or other contexts, in a sustainable way. The process of sustainable business model construction forms an innovative part of a business strategy. Different industries and businesses have utilized sustainable business models’ concept to satisfy their economic, environmental, and social goals simultaneously. However, the success, popularity, and progress of sustainable business models in different application domains are not clear. To explore this issue, this research provides a comprehensive review of sustainable business models literature in various application areas. Notable sustainable business models are identified and further classified in fourteen unique categories, and in every category, the progress -either failure or success- has been reviewed, and the research gaps are discussed. Taxonomy of the applications includes innovation, management and marketing, entrepreneurship, energy, fashion, healthcare, agri-food, supply chain management, circular economy, developing countries, engineering, construction and real estate, mobility and transportation, and hospitality. The key contribution of this study is that it provides an insight into the state of the art of sustainable business models in various application areas and future research directions. This paper concludes that popularity and the success rate of sustainable business models in all application domains have been increased along with the increasing use of advanced technologies.

Nowadays, network simulators are very useful to model a communications system. In this technical note we will focus in the creation of a new error model in NS-3 network simulator. This note describes the main steps to create or modify an Wi-Fi error model in this network simulator. In our case, we have created a new error model to included the approach of [1] to compute PER (Packet Error Rate) for vehicular environments.

Aiming at the defects of low precision and time cumulative error, an external wireless signal weighted centroid localization algorithm aided inertial positioning method is designed in this paper. According to the signal strength of each anchor node received at the test point, the distance between the anchor node and the anchor node is obtained by using the attenuation model of the wireless signal. Three anchor nodes are used to measure the distance between the anchor node and the measured point. We can obtain the area to be measured according to the actual situation, the position of the measured point is obtained by the weighted centroid localization algorithm and a combined model of wireless signal aided inertial navigation system is established. The simulation results show that the method can greatly improve the positioning accuracy and restrain the divergence of the longitude error and latitude error.

A new two-dimensional nanomaterial – Titanium Carbide MXene (Ti₃C₂-MXene) – was reported in 2011. In this work, the microscale models of Ti₃C₂-MXene nanomaterial are considered with polymer matrix. The nanocomposites are modeled using nacre-mimetic brick-and-mortar assembly configurations due to enhanced mechanical properties and interlocking mechanism between the Ti₃C₂-MXene (brick) and polymer matrices (mortar). The polymer matrix material (Epoxy-resin) is modeled with elastic and viscoelastic behavior (Kelvin-Voigt Model). The Finite Element Method is used for numerical analysis of the microscale models with the multi-point constraint method to include Ti₃C₂-MXene fillers in the polymer matrix. Ti₃C₂-MXenes are considered as thick plate elements with transverse shear effects. The response of elastic and viscoelastic models of polymer matrix are studied. Finally, a tensile and compressive load is applied at the microscale and the effective load transfer due to nacre-mimetic configuration is discussed. This paper provides nacre-mimetic models to pre-design the nanocomposite for optimal performance with damage resistance and enhanced strength.

The comparison of group means in latent variable models plays a vital role in empirical research in the social sciences. The present article discusses extensions of invariance alignment and Haberman linking concerning the choice of linking functions for comparisons of many groups. Robust linking functions are proposed for invariance alignment and robust Haberman linking that are particularly suited to item response data under partial invariance. In a simulation study, it is shown that both linking approaches have comparable performance, and in some conditions, the newly proposed robust Haberman linking outperforms invariance alignment.

The worldwide interconnected objects, called Internet of Things (IoTs), have been increasingly growing in the last several years. Different social media platforms and devices are continuously generating data about individuals and facilitate the technological and the social convergence of their Internet-based data and services with globalized users. These social and device-related IoTs create rooms for data breaches as such platforms provide ability to collect private and sensitive data. We assert that data breaches are fundamentally failures of access control - most users are too busy or technically ill-equipped to understand access control policy expressions and decisions. We argue that this is symptomatic of globalised societies structured by the conditions of algorithmic modernity; an era in which our data is increasingly interdependent on, and enmeshed with, ever more complex systems and processes that are vulnerable to attack. Ethically managing data breaches is now too complex for current access control systems, such as Role-Based Access Control (RBAC) and Context-Aware Access Control (CAAC). These systems do not provide an explicit mechanism to engage in decision making processes, about who should have access to what data and when, that are involved in data breaches. We argue that a policy ontology will contribute towards the development of Ethical CAAC better suited to attributing accountability for data breaches in the context of algorithmic modernity. We interrogate our proposed Ethical CAAC as a theoretical construct with implications for future policy ontology models and data breach countermeasures. An experimental study on the performance of the proposed framework is carried out with respect to a more generic CAAC framework.

Background: Metabolic flux analysis (MFA) is an indispensable tool in metabolic engineering. The simplest variant of MFA relies on an overdetermined stoichiometric model of the cell’s metabolism under the pseudo-steady state assumption, to evaluate the intracellular flux distribution. Despite its long history, the issue of model error in the overdetermined MFA, particularly misspecifications of the stoichiometric matrix, has not received much attention. Method: We evaluated the performance of statistical tests from linear least square regressions, namely Ramsey RESET test, F-test and Lagrange multiplier test, in detecting model misspecifications in the overdetermined MFA, particularly missing reactions. We further proposed an iterative procedure using the F-test to correct such an issue. Result: Using Chinese hamster ovary and random metabolic networks, we demonstrated that: (1) a statistically significant regression does not guarantee high accuracy of the flux estimates, (2) the removal of a reaction with a low flux magnitude can cause disproportionately large biases in the flux estimates, (3) the F-test could efficiently detect missing reactions, and (4) the proposed iterative procedure could robustly resolve the omission of reactions. Conclusion: Our work demonstrated that statistical analysis and tests could be used to systematically assess, detect and resolve model misspecifications in the overdetermined MFA.

River flood routing computes changes in shape of a flood wave over time as it travels downstream along a river. Conventional flood routing models, especially hydrodynamic models require high quality and quantity of input data such as measured hydrologic time series, geometric data, hydraulic structures and hydrological parameters. Unlike physically based models, machine learning algorithms, which are data driven models, do not require much knowledge about underlying physical processes and can identify complex nonlinearity between inputs and outputs. Due to the higher performance, less complexity, and low computation cost, novel machine learning methods as a single application or hybrid application were introduced by researchers to achieve more accurate and efficient flood routing. This paper reviews the recent application of machine learning methods in river flood routing.

The perception in pair trading is to recognize two stocks that move together, and their prices will converge to a mean value in future. However, finding the mean-reverted point at which the value of the pair will converge, and optimal boundaries of the trade is not easy. As uncertainty and model misspecifications may lead to losses. To cater for the problems, this study employs the novel entropic approach that utilizes entropy as penalty function for the misspecification of the model. The use of entropy as a measure of risk in pair trading is a nascent idea and this study utilizes daily data for 64 companies listed on PSX for the years 2017, 2018, and 2019, respectively to compute the returns based on the entropic approach. These companies cover the major sectors including Cement, Chemical, Automobile Assembler, Food and Personal Care Products, Oil and Gas Marketing Companies, Oil and Gas Exploration Companies Ltd, Power Generation and Distribution, Refinery and Pharmaceuticals. The returns to these stocks are then evaluated and compared with the Buy and Hold strategy. The results show positive and significant returns from pair trading using an entropic approach.

The quantified residence time distribution (RTD) provides a numerical characterization of mixing in the continue casting tundish, thus allowing the engineer to better understand the metallurgical performance of the reactor. This paper describes a computational fluid dynamic (CFD) modelling study for analyzing the flow pattern and the residence time distribution in a five-strand tundish. Two passive scalar transport equations are applied to separately calculate the E-curve and F-curve in the tundish. The numerical modelling results are compared to the water modelling results for the validation of the mathematical model. The volume fraction of different flow regions (plug, mixed and dead) and the intermixing time during the ladle changeover are calculated to study the effects of the flow control device (FCD) on the tundish performance. The result shows that a combination of the U-baffle with deflector holes and the turbulence inhibitor has three major effects on the flow characteristics in the tundish: i) reduce the extent of the dead volume; ii) evenly distribute the liquid streams to each strand and iii) shorten the intermixing time during the ladle changeover operation.

In this paper we will present a simplified approach for extracting the ground level – a digital terrain model (DTM) – from the surface provided in a digital surface model (DSM). Most existing algorithms try to find the ground values in a digital surface model. Our approach works the opposite direction by detecting probable above ground areas. The main advantage of our approach is the possibility to use it with incomplete DSMs containing much no data values which can be e.g. occlusions in the calculated DSM. A smoothing or filling of such original derived DSMs will destroy much information which is very useful for deriving a ground surface from the DSM. Since the presented approach needs steep edges to detect potential high objects it will fail on smoothed and filled DSMs. After presenting the algorithm it will be applied to a test area in Salzburg and compared to a terrain model freely available from the Austrian government.

The primary attraction of IaaS is providing elastic resources on demand. It becomes imperative that IaaS-users have an effective methodology for learning what resources they require, how many resources and for how long they need. However, the heterogeneity of resources, the diversity resource demands of different cloud applications and the variation of application-user behaviors pose IaaS-users big challenge. In this paper, we purpose a unified resource demand forecasting model suiting for different applications, various resources and diverse time-varying workload patterns. With the model, taking input from parameterized applications, resources and workload scenarios, the corresponding resources demands during any time interval can be deduced as output. The experiments configure concrete functions and parameters to help understanding the above model.

Few studies have examined the pros and cons of integrated TB and HIV service delivery in public healthcare facilities, and even fewer have proposed conceptual models for improved integration. This study intends to fill that vacuum by outlining the development of a facility-based paradigm for integrating TB, HIV and patients services. The design of the proposed model were in stages that involved the evaluation of existing TB-HIV integration model and synthesis of both quantitative and qualitative data from the study sites which were selected public healthcare facilities at both rural and peri-urban settings in Oliver Reginald (O.R) Tambo District Municipality in Eastern Cape, South Africa. Secondary data on 2009-2013 TB-HIV clinical outcomes were obtained from multiple sources for quantitative analysis. Qualitative data involved focus group discussions among patient and heath care staff, which was thematically analysed. The development of a possibly better model and validation of this model show that the district's health system was reinforced by the model's guiding principles, which placed a strong emphasis on inputs, processes, outcomes, and integration effects.The model is adaptable to different healthcare delivery systems but will require support from healthcare stakeholders and professionals to be successful.

In this paper we provide an ``expository overview" of classic epidemic projection models. Starting with the simple case of an epidemic that grows exponentially we then investigate ``compartmental" models. These assume that the growth of an infected population is limited endogenously by the size of the underlying pool of susceptibles. We then describe a new family of so-called "Exo-r" statistical models, which hinge on an exogenously driven growth rate of the infected population. This family, which can be used to model both infections and deaths, captures parsimoniously both the depletion of susceptibles and the effect of interventions such as lockdowns and ``social distancing". The model is used to fit numbers of Covid-19 infections in China. It is also used to model and project deaths in the United States. Results are used to inform a discussion on i) the challenges at hand and ii) the extent to which epidemic projection models may be useful despite being wrong.

The emphasis in the automotive industry towards sustainable mobility has led to a significant interest in hybrid-electric propulsion systems with high energy density batteries. Addressing the needs of this strategy, the battery market is exploring new technologies to improve the safety and lifespan of electric vehicles. To this end, there is a focus on the all-solid-state battery (ASSB) technology for its cycle capabilities. Filling the current void in the literature pertaining to accurate ageing models for ASSBs, in this work, we present an enhanced version of the numerical ageing model, originally developed for liquid electrolyte based batteries, to forecast the development of the solid electrolyte interface layer that is the major cause of battery capacity fading. The model has been tested on prototype batteries and reveals an accuracy of 99%. The capacity fade in ASSBs has been investigated under different conditions, and the enhanced ageing model has been validated using experimental data from these batteries. The findings suggest that there is potential for solid-state batteries to be commercialized, although significant work is needed to match the manufacturing level of lithium-ion batteries with liquid electrolytes.

In order to study the adsorption process and adsorption characteristics of shale oil at the macro scale, the isothermal adsorption experiments of illite and kerogen on heptadecane (oil phase) solution were carried out by infrared spectrophotometry and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. The reaction mechanism of alkane solution concentration and temperature in the adsorption process was investigated. The adsorption characteristics of heptadecane on the surface and pores of illite and kerogen were elucidated by adsorption isotherm model and adsorption thermodynamic model. The results show that: The concentration of alkane solution contributes to the adsorption of illite and kerogen. As the concentration of the solution continues to increase, the adsorption rate gradually slows down. However, the temperature hardly affects the adsorption rate. At 25℃, 50℃ and 60℃, the adsorption process of illite on alkane solution is more consistent with Langmuir model and Freundlich model, respectively. The difference is that Langmuir model is suitable for describing the whole adsorption process of kerogen on alkane solution. 3) The adsorption process of illite and kerogen to heptadecane solution is an endothermic reaction. Heating helps to accelerate the migration rate of alkanes, which is conducive to the adsorption reaction. The research results clarify the adsorption characteristics of shale oil heavy components from the macro level, and fill the research gap in the application of solid-liquid isothermal adsorption physical experiments to the adsorption and occurrence of shale oil.

Colleges and universities play a crucial role in fostering innovation, making it essential to explore effective strategies for promoting innovation at the institutional policy level. This paper focuses on the establishment of intellectual property (IP) model cities as a starting point and conducts an empirical analysis using innovation data from 234 cities and 942 colleges and universities between 2007 and 2017. By constructing a multi-temporal double-difference model, this study reveals that the establishment of IP model cities effectively fosters innovation in colleges and universities. Further analysis demonstrates that this promotion effect is particularly significant in the western region, key cities, key colleges and universities, as well as in the fields of invention and utility model patents. These conclusions withstand a series of robustness tests, confirming their validity. In terms of the underlying mechanisms, it is found that the national IP pilot city policy has a substantial impact on university innovation by promoting research and development (R&D) investment and strengthening innovation cooperation. The insights provided by this study offer valuable policy recommendations for leveraging the innovation potential of the IP model city policy, thereby driving economic transformation, upgrading, and fostering innovation development in China.

While considering the sensitivity over the parameter optimization, it is essential to determine which parameters have the most significant implications on model performance. This study focuses on the baseflow recession constant as one of the independent basin parameters to forecast low flows, perform hydrograph analysis, and calibrate rainfall-runoff models for significant improvement. Prior studies examined that the optimization of data adjustment parameters can improve the hydrological model performance and determine the minimum acceptable data length for data scarce regions using the Xinanjaing model. However, it is essential to pay special attention to the sensitivity of the recession constant, which can also impact the model performance during the data scarcity. Therefore, this study extends the research to comprehend the recession constant sensitivity over data adjustment parameters in the shorter datasets leading to more reliable parameter estimation. In terms of that, this study explores how recession constant affects hydrological parameter estimation on annual scale while keeping data adjustment parameters constant in continuous hydrological modeling, employing the Xinanjiang (XAJ) model as a case study. This study considered two approaches of recession constant (cg); (i) assessing the relationship between cg and the data adjustment parameter (Cep), for the 28-year datasets, (ii) investigating the significant impacts of the sensitivity of cg over Cep in shorter datasets which can affect the estimation of the acceptable minimum data length in the data scarce basins. The study underscores the importance of the recession constant sensitivity for reliable continuous hydrological model predictions, especially in data-scared areas. The study’s outcomes enhance the understanding of the importance of parameter sensitivity and its relationship in conceptual hydrological modeling during the data limitations.

Using the Super-SBM method, this study calculates the carbon emission efficiency (CEE) of 30 provinces in mainland China from 2011 to 2019. Then, using the systematic GMM model, spatial Durbin model, and mediating effect model, it examines the direct effect, spatial effect, and influence mechanism of the digital economy (DE) on CEE. It was found that (1) the DE significantly promoted regional CEE, but had a negative effect on CEE in provinces with high economic correlation; (2) mechanism studies showed that the DE improved CEE by reducing energy intensity, promoting industrial upgrading and green technology innovation; (3) regional heterogeneity analysis found that the DE significantly improved CEE in eastern provinces, but not in central and western provinces. DE improves CEE in provinces with high level of economic development, but decreases CEE in provinces with low level of economic development.This paper provides some empirical and theoretical references for the development of DE to improve CEE.

In this paper, a novel strategy is adopted in a degradation model to affect the implied lifetime distribution. The multiplicative degradation model is utilized as a postulate in the model. It will be established that the implied lifetime distribution forms a classical mixture model. In this mixture model, time-to-failure is lying with some probabilities between two first passage times of the degradation process to reach two specified levels. Stochastic comparisons in the model under a change in the probabilities are studied. Several examples are provided to highlight the applicability of the results in the cases when typical degradation models are candidate.

During the dry season, glaciers contribute significantly to the water supply downstream, especially in areas with seasonal rainfall. It is important to have physical-based glacier models, which are more advanced in quantifying the future dynamics of glaciers and melt distribution. Toward this purpose, an investigation of different numerical modeling tools and their approach is conducted and planned further to incorporate a glacier module into a spatially distributed model called mHM (Mesoscale Hydrological Model, mhm-ufz.org). An open-source tool called MATILDA (Modeling Water Resources in Glacierized Catchments) is used beforehand to implement the glacier entities to the application catchment Maipo Basin in Chile. Due to limited time availability and source of data, the glacier melt of the MATILDA model is integrated into the mHM model to see what the implications would be if the glacier module was implemented from scratch in mHM. The analysis of the glacier hydrology resulting from the Maipo-Glacier model was carried out by comparing the modeled glacier flows with the total observed flows. To assess the credibility of the models, the results are compared based on three goodness-fit measures, specifically r^2Coefficient of Determination), NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency), and KGE (Kling-Gupta Efficiency). Application of the mHM model in the Maipo basin in Central Chile is performed by using prepared input datasets, showing that the approach is viable as evidenced by a Kling-Gupta Efficiency of 0.80 and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.70 from the starting periods of 1950 to 2020. Overestimation by the mHM model occurs during the late summer season, particularly when temperature decreases. The MATILDA model is used on glacier melt distribution, forcing data is prepared from regional datasets, and a glacier profile is constructed from ice thickness datasets. According to the model, the average KGE result for the years 2012–14 and 2015–18 was respectively 0.44 and 0.41. Glacier melt produced by Matilda is in the range of 58-68 % of the total runoff and the glacier area decreased by 22-23% during the simulation period from 2012-14 and 2016-2018. A pilot sub-basin Olivares is used in the coupling mHM model with initializing MATILDA glacier melt. The new model is underestimated during the seasonal transition in the initial days of the simulation. A considerable portion of the ablation period might be missed as a result of the initial storage quality, true glacier extent, and height distribution being understated. As a conclusion, the mHM Model was capable of predicting runoff well in a mountainous region and could also serve as a monitoring tool for watershed management. There are differences in results between the two models because of the different spatial resolutions and methodologies. MATILDA have a glacier retreat routine that gives better result for the glacier characteristics such as. A new glacier dynamics model needs to be implemented in the future to develop intermediate complexity, bridge catchment, and glacier scales after using the mHM, MATILDA, and mHM with MATIDLA model for analysis of glacier and highlighting the model's deficiencies in the initial period of simulative assessments.

One of the most broadly used models for membrane fouling is the Hermia model, which separates this phenomenon into four blocking mechanisms, each with an associated parameter n. These mechanisms are complete blocking (n=2), intermediate blocking (n=1), standard blocking (n=3/2), and cake formation (n=3/2). The original model, which was obtained through experimental data, is given by an Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) dependent on n. At the time, this ODE was only solved for these four values of n, which limits the effectiveness of the model when adjusted to experimental data. This paper aims to not only mathematically prove the original Hermia model but also to broaden the scope of this model for any real number n by using the original ODE, the equations of fluid mechanics, and the properties of single and multivariable calculus. The extended Hermia model (EHM) is given by a power law for any n≠2 and is given by an exponential function at n=2. To better test the model, we have performed the model fitting of the EHM and compared its performance to the original four pore-blocking mechanisms in 6 micro- and ultrafiltration examples. In all examples, the EHM performed consistently better than the four original pore-blocking mechanisms. Changes in the blocking mechanisms concerning transmembrane pressure (TMP), crossflow rate (CFR), crossflow velocity (CFV), membrane composition, and pretreatments are also discussed.

This study aimed to determine the feasibility of the development of an over-the-counter (OTC) screening model using machine learning for breast cancer screening in the Asian women population. Data were retrospectively collected from women who came to the Hospital Universiti Sains Malaysia, Malaysia. Five screening models were developed based on machine learning methods; random forest, artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), elastic-net logistic regression and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). Features used for the development of the screening models were limited to information from the patients’ registration form. The model performance was assessed across the dense and non-dense groups. SVM had the best sensitivity while elastic-net logistic regression had the best specificity. In terms of precision, both random forest elastic-net logistic regression had the best performance, while, in terms of PR-AUC, XGBoost had the best performance. Additionally, SVM had a more balanced performance in terms of sensitivity and specificity across the mammographic density groups. The three most important features were age at examination, weight and number of children. In conclusion, OTC models developed from machine learning methods can improve the prognostic process of breast cancer in Asian women.

A micromechanical model is implemented to indicate the progressive fatigue problem of a laminated composite with a central circular hole under fatigue loading based on a finite element model. The mechanical properties of the composite lamina are represented based on the characteristics of the fiber and the matrix through a micromechanics model. An appropriate algorithm is then adopted to simulate fatigue damage development in the composite lamina. According to this algorithm, the stress field of the composite subjected to fatigue load is initially obtained using the finite element method. Finally, the predicted results of the stresses in the constituents i.e. fiber and matrix are determined according to the micromechanical bridging model. Finally applying proper damage driving relations leads to damage degree in each element. The proposed model is proven to be successful in the observation of the fatigue behavior with stiffness degradation in each element of the composite in each cycle. Results are reported and validated using those micromechanical models and experimental data available in the literature.

Background: Outbreak of the Covid-19 is now an ongoing global health emergency. At the end of December 2019, the first infection was reported in Wuhan and the world did not pay attention to this extremely contaminated disease and plucked to react rapidly. The World is in an vulnerable state in disease spreading, facing a great loss of lives and socio-economic aspects also. That is why we have proposed a potential mathematical model with data analysis to predict and control the outcome of this pandemic. Methods: The model presented the epidemic dynamics of multiple compartments. We collected available online data of Spain. In primary step, we estimated the parameters using either the data analysis or reference papers. Then we did the data fitting analysis in comparison with the outcome of our mathematical results. The results of the system depended not only the parameters also on social consciousness. Results: It is found that disease progression in this model is determined by the basic reproductive ratio, $R_0$, the actual epidemic of $R_0$ and effective $R(t)$ of each day. If $R_0>1$, the number of latently infected individuals grows exponentially; endemic solution is stable while infection rate decays if $R_0<1$. The optimal control theory stated that vaccination and treatment strategies are highly effective for reducing both susceptible and infected population and to increase the recover rate high. In Spain, after state of alarm (quarantine) on 14 March 2020, reported cases increasing for 13 days only and from the 14th day, daily reported cases started to decline albeit with small fluctuation. Our proposed model approximates that the disease in Spain could be fully under control by after July 2020. Conclusion: Outbreak will be in control of health care system, reduce the death rate and will ensure social-economic stability.

In this paper, the seven traditional models of PV modules are reviewed comprehensively to find out the appropriate model to be reliable. All the models are validated using the Matlab code and make a graphical comparison. The accuracy and convergence of each model are evaluated using data of manufactured PV panels. Then, a novel model is proposed showing its consistent performance. The most three key parameters of single-diode model are self revised to adapt to various type of PV modules. This new method is verified in three types of PV panels' data measured by National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), US. The validated data show promising results when the error RMSEs' range of the proposed model is under 0.36.

Model selection and model averaging have been the popular approaches in handling modelling uncertainties. Fan and Li(2006) laid out a unified frame work for variable selection via penalized likelihood. The tuning parameter selection is vital in the optimization problem for the penalized estimators in achieving consistent selection and optimal estimation. Since the OLSpost-LASSO estimator by Belloni and Chernozhukov (2013), few studies have focused on the finite sample performances of the class of OLS post-penalty estimators with the tuning parameter choice determined by different tuning parameter selection approaches. We aim to supplement the existing model selection literature by studying such a class of OLS post-selection estimators. Inspired by the Shrinkage Averaging Estimator (SAE) by Schomaker(2012) and the Mallows Model Averaging (MMA) criterion by Hansen (2007), we further propose a Shrinkage Mallows Model Averaging (SMMA) estimator for averaging high dimensional sparse models. Based on the Monte Carlo design by Wang et al. (2009) which features an expanding sparse parameter space as the sample size increases, our Monte Carlo design further considers the effect of the effective sample size and the degree of model sparsity on the finite sample performances of model selection and model averaging estimators. From our data examples, we find that the OLS post-SCAD(BIC) estimator in finite sample outperforms most of the current penalized least squares estimators as long as the number of parameters does not exceed the sample size. In addition, the SMMA performs better given sparser models. This supports the use of the SMMA estimator when averaging high dimensional sparse models.

Changes in agricultural yields due to climate change will affect land use, agricultural production volume, and food prices as well as macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP which is important as it enables one to compare the climate change impacts across multiple sectors. This study considered five key uncertainty factors and estimated macroeconomic impacts due to crop yield changes using a novel integrated assessment framework. The five factors are 1) land-use change (or yield aggregation method based on spatially-explicit information), 2) the amplitude of the CO2 fertilization effect, 3) the use of different climate models, 4) socioeconomic assumptions and 5) the level of mitigation stringency. We found that their global impacts on the macroeconomic indicator value were 0.02 - 0.06% of GDP in 2100. However, the impacts on the agricultural sector varied greatly by socioeconomic assumption. The relative contributions of these factors to the total uncertainty in the projected macroeconomic indicator value were greater in a pessimistic world scenario characterized by a large population increase and low income (0.6%) than in an optimistic scenario (0.00%).

The aim of this study has been to develop a novel two-level multi-objective genetic algorithm (GA) to optimize time series forecasting data for fans used in road tunnels by the Swedish Transport Administration (Trafikverket). Level 1 is for the process of forecasting time series cost data, while level 2 evaluates the forecasting. Level 1 implements either a multi-objective GA based on the ARIMA model or a multi-objective GA based on the dynamic regression model. Level 2 utilises a multi-objective GA based on different forecasting error rates to identify a proper forecasting. Our method is compared with using the ARIMA model only. The results show the drawbacks of time series forecasting using only the ARIMA model. In addition, the results of the two-level model show the drawbacks of forecasting using a multi-objective GA based on the dynamic regression model. A multi-objective GA based on the ARIMA model produces better forecasting results. In level 2, five forecasting accuracy functions help in selecting the best forecasting. Selecting a proper methodology for forecasting is based on the averages of the forecasted data, the historical data, the actual data and the polynomial trends. The forecasted data can be used for life cycle cost (LCC) analysis.

Bladder cancer is one of the most common malignant diseases in the urinary system and a highly aggressive neoplasm. The prognosis is not favourable usually and its evolution for particular patients is very difficult to find out. In this paper we propose a dynamic mathematical model that describes the bladder tumor growth and the immune response evolution. This model is customized for a single patient, determining appropriate model parameter values via model calibration. Due to the uncertainty of the tumor evolution, using the calibrated model parameters, we predict the tumor size and the immune response evolution over the next few months assuming three different scenarios: favourable, neutral and unfavourable. In the former, the cancer disappears; in the second a 5mm tumor is expected around the middle of August 2018; in the worst scenario, a 5mm tumor is expected around the end of May 2018. The patient has been cited around June 15th, 2018, to check the tumor size, if it exists.

Multiobjective optimization plays an increasingly important role in modern applications, where several criteria are often of equal importance. The task in multiobjective optimization and multiobjective optimal control is therefore to compute the set of optimal compromises (the Pareto set) between the conflicting objectives. The advances in algorithms and the increasing interest in Pareto optimal solutions have led to a wide range of new applications related to optimal and feedback control which results in new challenges such as expensive models or real-time applicability. Since the Pareto set generally consists of an infinite number of solutions, the computational effort can quickly become challenging which is particularly problematic when the objectives are costly to evaluate or when a solution has to be presented very quickly. This article gives an overview over recent developments in accelerating multiobjective optimal control for complex problems where either PDE constraints are present or where a feedback behavior has to be achieved. In the first case, surrogate models yield significant speed-ups. Besides classical meta-modeling techniques for multiobjective optimization, a promising alternative for control problems is to introduce a surrogate model for the system dynamics. In the case of real-time requirements, various promising model predictive control approaches have been proposed, using either fast online solvers or offline-online decomposition. We also briefly comment on dimension reduction in many-objective optimization problems as another technique for reducing the numerical effort.

A unified critical state model has been developed for both clean sand and silty sand using the modified Cam-clay model (MCC). The main feature of the proposed model is a new critical state line equation in the e-ln(p) plane that is capable of handling both straight and curved test results. With this feature, the error in calculating plastic volumetric strain is eliminated in theory. Another crucial feature of the model is the transformed stress tensor based on the SMP (spatially mobilized plane) criterion, which takes into account the proper shear yield and failure of soil under three-dimensional stresses. Additionally, the proposed model applies the intergranular void ratio with the fines influence factor for silty sand. Only eight soil parameters are required for clean sand, and a total number of twelve soil parameters are needed for silty sand.

Dyadic data contains co-occurrences of objects, which is often modeled by finite mixture model which in turn is learned by expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. Objects in traditional dyadic data are identified by names, causing the drawback which is that it is impossible to extract implicit valuable knowledge under objects. In this research, I propose the so-called attributed dyadic data (ADD) in which each object has an informative attribute and each co-occurrence of two objects is associated with a value. ADD is flexible and covers most of structures / forms of dyadic data. Conditional mixture model (CMM), which is a variant of finite mixture model, is applied into learning ADD. Moreover, a significant feature of CMM is that any co-occurrence of two objects is based on some conditional variable. As a result, CMM can predict or estimate co-occurrent values based on regression model, which extends applications of ADD and CMM.

The total enthalpies of the 16 different spin configurations that can be realized in the unit cell of the archetype spin crossover complex [Fe(phen)₂(NCS)₂] (phen=1,2-phenanthroline) were calculated applying periodic density functional theory combined with the Hubbard model and the Grimme-D2 dispersion correction (DFT+U/D2). The obtained enthalpy differences between the individual spin configurations were used to determine spin couplings of an Ising-like model and subsequent Monte Carlo simulations for this model allowed to estimate the phenomenological interaction parameter Г of the Slichter-Drickamer model, which is commonly used to describe the cooperativity of the spin transition. The calculational procedure described here, which led to an estimate of about 3 kJ/mol⁻¹ for Г, in good agreement with experiment, may be used to predict from first principles how modifications of spin crossover complexes can change the character of the spin transition from gradual to abrupt and vice versa.

The research develops and validates new decomposition models for DNI estimations from Southern African data. The results demonstrated improved DNI estimation accuracy compared to the baseline models across all testing and validation datasets. These outcomes suggest that utilising a localised model can significantly enhance DNI estimations for Southern Africa and potentially for developing similar models in diverse geographic regions worldwide. Furthermore, clustered models highlighted the potential advantages of grouping data based on shared geographical and climatic attributes. This clustering approach could enhance decomposition model performance, particularly when local data is limited or data is available from multiple nearby stations. The Southern African decomposition model, which encompasses a wide spectrum of climatic regions and geographic locations, exhibited notable improvements over the baseline models despite occasional overestimation or underestimation. The overall metrics affirm the substantial advancement achieved with the Southern African model. This study focused on validating the model for hourly DNI in Southern Africa within a range of clearness index-intervals from 0.175 to 0.875. Implementing accurate decomposition models in developing countries can accelerate the adoption of renewable energy sources, diminishing reliance on coal and fossil fuels.

The paper presents a simplified laminar model with which the deformation of soil layers (base, subbase and subgrade courses) under flexible pavements due to repeated traffic load can be determined. In the first step, the cyclic strain amplitude is calculated using a nonlinear material model that is based on particle size distribution parameters (d50 and CU) and dependent on the mean normal stress, relative density and actual strain level. In the second step, the HCA (High Cycle Accumulation) model is used to calculate the residual settlement of each sublayer as a function of the number of cycles. It is shown that the developed model is suitable for describing different types of subgrades and pavement cross-sections. It is also demonstrated with finite element calculations that the developed model describes both the elastic and plastic strains sufficiently accurately. The developed model can predict the settlement and rutting of pavement structures with sufficient accuracy based on easily available particle size distribution parameters without the need of complex laboratory and finite element tests.

Industrial process control systems commonly exhibit features of time-varying, strong coupling, and strong nonlinearity. Obtaining accurate mathematical models of these nonlinear systems and achieving satisfactory control performance is still a challenging task. In this paper, data-driven modeling techniques and deep learning methods are used to accurately capture a category of smooth nonlinear system’s spatiotemporal features. The operating point of these systems may change over time, and their nonlinear characteristics can be locally linearized. We established the LSTM-CNN-ARX model by utilizing a fusion of long short-term memory (LSTM) network and convolutional neural network (CNN) to fit the coefficients of the state-dependent exogenous variable autoregressive (SD-ARX) model. Compared to other models, the hybrid LSTM-CNN-ARX model is more effective in capturing the nonlinear system’s spatiotemporal characteristics due to its incorporating the strengths of LSTM for learning temporal characteristics and CNN for capturing spatial characteristics. The model-based predictive control (MPC) strategy, namely LSTM-CNN-ARX-MPC, is developed by utilizing the model's local linear and global nonlinear features. The control comparison experiments conducted on a water tank system (WTS) show the effectiveness of the developed models and MPC methods.

Pancreatic cancer represents one of the difficult problems of contemporary medicine. The development illness evolves very slowly, takes place in special sake (stroma) and manifests clinically close to a final stage. Another feature of this pathology is a coexistence (symbiotic) effect between cancer cells and normal cells inside stroma. All these aspects make it difficult to understand the pathogenesis of pancreatic cancer and develop a proper therapy. The emergence of pancreatic pre-cancer and cancer cells represents a branching stochastic process engaging populations of 64 cells differing in the number of acquired mutations. In this study we formulate and calibrate the mathematical model of pancreatic cancer using the quasispecies framework. The mathematical model incorporates the mutation matrix, fineness landscape matrix and the death rates. Each element of the mutation matrix presents the probability of appearing a specific mutation in the branching sequence of cells representing the accumulation of mutations. The model incorporates the cancer cell elimination by effect CD8 T cells (CTL). The down-regulation of the effector function of CTLs and exhaustion are parameterized. The symbiotic effect of coexistence of normal and cancer cells is considered. The computational predictions obtained with the model are consistent with empirical data. The modelling approach can be used to investigate other types of cancers and examine various treatment procedures.

The use of cobalt-iron (VaCoFe) core is investigated as an alternative to silicon-iron (FeSi) on the design of interior permanent magnet synchronous motors (IPMSM). A spoke-type IPMSM geometry is optimized considering FeSi and VaCoFe cores for a torque range up to 40 N.m, providing a general comparative analysis between materials, considering the application of a 4-motor competition vehicle’s powertrain. A genetic optimization algorithm is applied over a hybrid analytical/finite-element model of the motor to provide sufficiently accurate electromagnetic and thermal results within a feasible time. VaCoFe can result in an estimated increase of up to 5 % in efficiency for the same torque, or up to 64 % torque increase for the same efficiency level. After optimization, and using a detailed time-dependent model, a potential 3.2 % increase in efficiency, a core weight reduction of 4.1 %, and a decrease of 9.6 % in the motor’s core volume was found for the VaCoFe at 20 Nm. In addition, for the same motor volume, the VaCoFe allows an increase of 51.9 % of torque with an increase of 1.1 % of efficiency, when compared with FeSi.

The cellular model we teach and have theorized assumes that the cell is the basic unit of multicellular living beings. This fundamental element has been the subject of many theories concerning its properties and the exchanges that exist with its environment. In this article, we demonstrate that certain functional aspects, in particular the electrical aspects related to diffusion, have not been correctly assumed or that certain initial conditions have been purely ignored and are in contradiction with physics, chemistry and thermodynamics.