ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201808.0065.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior And Systematics Keywords: Egrets and herons; MaxEnt; potential habitat; residential district
Online: 3 August 2018 (11:59:19 CEST)
Potential breeding habitat of egrets and herons was evaluated using the Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt). Model output can help guide management of nuisance egret and heron rookeries in urban forests of Daejeon Metropolitan City, Korea. This study examined 126 locations regarded as breeding sites of egrets and herons at the nationwide census conducted by the National Institute of Environmental Research between 2011 and 2012. In addition, 252 randomly selected locations were used to identify the significant variables among a total of 15 environmental variables within 4 factors (topography, natural environment, distance and climate). Twelve variables were significantly different between the breeding and randomly selected points. The final 10 variables were selected through Pearson’s correlation analysis. Using MaxEnt, breeding area was estimated using the 10 selected variables in Daejeon. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.950, which was the average value through 10-fold cross-validation to estimate the model reliability. The potential breeding habitat for egrets and herons was estimated to be 106.69 km2 (19.76% of the total area) in Daejeon. Within the estimated potential habitat, 11.82 km2 (12.46%) were less than 50 m from the residential district while 79.85 km2 (88.92%) were more than 50m from the residential district. Discriminative management strategies considering the breeding location of egrets and herons should be applied not only to minimize conflicts with residents, but also to maintain stable egret and heron breeding sites in Daejeon, Korea.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202304.0367.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Plant Sciences Keywords: species distribution modeling; machine learning; MaxEnt; bryophytes; climatic change.
Online: 14 April 2023 (10:35:42 CEST)
Species distribution modeling (SDM) has come a long way since its inception. Starting as simple bioclimatic envelope models based on expert knowledge, species distribution models (SDMs) have evolved into complex and sophisticated models that incorporate multiple sources of data and machine learning algorithms. Today, SDMs play a crucial role in addressing pressing conservation and management issues, including the impacts of climate change on species ranges and the as-sessment of species vulnerability to extinction. In this article, we will embark on a journey through the history, present, and future of SDM, exploring its evolution from bioclimatic envelopes to machine learning. We will also provide practical tips on how to use SDMs effectively and discuss the exciting future developments in this field. Whether you are a seasoned SDM expert or new to this field, this article will provide valuable insights into the exciting world of SDM. By exploring the rich history and current state of the field, we hope to shed light on the tremendous potential of SDM for improving our understanding of the distribution of species in a changing world.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202206.0353.v2
Subject: Physical Sciences, Thermodynamics Keywords: entropy; physical foundations; MaxEnt; wavefunction collapse; thermodynamics; statistical mechanics
Online: 25 November 2022 (04:29:00 CET)
The thermocontextual interpretation (TCI) establishes a system’s exergy, entropic energy, and thermal entropy as thermocontextual properties of state, defined with respect to its positive temperature surroundings. This work extends previous applications of the TCI to irreversible and statistical transitions. The TCI defines statistical entropy as a transactional process of derandomization and transition to a negative-entropy state. Statistical measurements of a confined quantum particle’s position are detailed in terms of reversible processes of instantiation and actualization. The TCI then formalizes the MaxEnt as a fundamental physical principle. We apply MaxEnt and statistical entropy measurements to the double-slit experiment. Particles passing through parallel slits record a wave interference pattern, but a “which-slit” detector eliminates wave interference. Richard Feynman called the double-slit experiment the only mystery, at the heart of quantum mechanics. The TCI offers a simple explanation. The which-slit detector breaks the system’s symmetry, enabling particles to pass through one slit or the other, and MaxEnt selects the asymmetrical transition, which has no wave interference and a higher statistical entropy.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202010.0467.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Anatomy And Physiology Keywords: Climate Change; Ethiopia; Hagenia abyssinica; MaxEnt; Species Distribution Model
Online: 22 October 2020 (21:38:10 CEST)
Research Highlights: Hagenia abyssinica is geographically localized, poor regenerated and endangered species in Ethiopia. Ethiopia has been experiencing variability of rainfall and rise in temperature due to the climate change. This study has hypothesized that the suitable areas for the species will be narrowed by the year 2070. Background and Objective The prediction of species distribution models help to implement appropriate conservation actions. The aim of this research was to identify the current and likely future distribution range and suitable areas for the species, and to determine the presence of H. absyssinica in risk in a short-term future. Material and method: To this end, occurrence data, bioclim variables, soil, elevation, and land cover map of Ethiopia were used. MaxEnt was used to predict distribution. Climate change impacts on the distribution of the species was performed using bioclimatic variables of the future climate data, 2070 (average for 2061-2080) was obtained from IPPC5 (CMIP5) at 30 seconds (1km) spatial resolution. The climate data was projected from GCMs, downscaled and calibrated using rcp4.5. Results: Both current and likely future distribution models were excellent and significantly better than random performance. This study has computed 59987 km2 to be the low impact area for the species under current conditions and will remain habitat under future climates and 39025 km2 area has been identified as the possible high impact areas or declining habitat. The model has also determined that 1238724 km2 of the areas are unsuitable at present and for future climates. The current study found that 15751 km2 of the area will be modified as a new suitable area for H. abyssinica due to climate change. Conclusion: Species distribution modeling is essential for the implementation of conservation actions that are compatible with the inevitable changing climatic conditions of the country.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201807.0058.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior And Systematics Keywords: Speyeria diana, butterfly, conservation, fragmentation, global warming, Maxent, WorldClim
Online: 3 July 2018 (16:16:38 CEST)
Climate change is predicted to alter the geographic distribution of a wide variety of taxa, including butterfly species. Research has focused primarily on high latitude species in North America, with no known studies examining responses of taxa in the southeastern US. The Diana fritillary (Speyeria diana) has experienced a recent range retraction in that region, disappearing from lowland sites and now persisting in two, phylogenetically disjunct mountainous regions. These findings are consistent with the predicted effects of a warming climate on numerous taxa, including other butterfly species in North America and Europe. We used ecological niche modeling to predict future changes to the distribution of S. diana under several climate models. To evaluate how climate change might influence the geographic distribution of this butterfly, we developed ecological niche models using Maxent. We used two global circulation models, CCSM and MIROC, under low and high emissions scenarios to predict the future distribution of S. diana. Models were evaluated using the Receiver Operating Characteristics Area Under Curve test and the True Skill Statistics (mean AUC = 0.91± 0.0028 SE, TSS = 0.87 ± 0.0032 SE for RCP = 4.5, and mean AUC = 0.87± 0.0031SE, TSS = 0.84 ± 0.0032 SE for RCP = 8.5), which both indicate that the models we produced were significantly better than random (0.5). The four modeled climate scenarios resulted in an average loss of 91% of suitable habitat for S. diana by 2050. Populations in the Southern Appalachian Mountains were predicted to suffer the most severe fragmentation and reduction in suitable habitat, threatening an important source of genetic diversity for the species. The geographic and genetic isolation of populations in the west suggest that those populations are equally as vulnerable to decline in the future, warranting ongoing conservation of those populations as well. Our results suggest that the Diana fritillary is under threat of decline by 2050 across its entire distribution from climate change, and is likely to be negatively affected by other human-induced factors as well.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.1819.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Agricultural Science And Agronomy Keywords: Xinjiang; Long-staple cotton; Maxent model; Potential distribution area; Distribution coordination
Online: 28 August 2023 (09:19:06 CEST)
Cotton cultivation and sustaining its productivity is challenging in temperate arid regions around the globe. Exploring suitable cotton cultivation areas to improve productivity in such climatic regions is essential. Thus, this study explores the ecologically suitable areas of cotton cultivation using the Maxent model, having 375 distribution points of long-staple cotton and various factors, including 19 climatic factors, 2 terrain factors, and 6 soil factors in Xinjiang. The area under the curve (AUC) of the predicted results was greater than 0.9, indicating that the model's predictions had fairly high accuracy. However, the main environmental factors that affect cotton's growth are the lowest temperature in the coldest month, the hottest month, the precipitation in the driest season, and the monthly average temperature difference. Further, the temperature factors contribute 71%, while the contribution ratio of terrain and soil factors is only 22%. The research shows that the current planting area is consistent with the predicted area in many areas of the study. Still, some areas, such as the Turpan region, northwest of Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture, are supposed to be suitable for planting cotton, but it is not planted. The current potential distribution area of long-staple cotton is mainly located in Aksu Prefecture and the northern part of the Kashgar Prefecture region. The climatic prediction shows that the growing area of long-staple cotton may expand to southern Altay, central Aksu, and Bortala Mongol Autonomous Prefecture. This study will be helpful for cotton cultivation suitability areas in Xinjiang and other regions with similar environments.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202202.0358.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior And Systematics Keywords: Asian elephant; MaxEnt; habitat suitability; protected area; climate change; human footprint
Online: 28 February 2022 (12:00:28 CET)
The reduction of biodiversity loss is one of the targets of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The protection of endangered species is critical for conserving global biodiversity. Asian elephants，as one of the last few mega-herbivores on Earth, are currently threatened by climate changes and anthropogenic modifications. The modelling of their living habitats is of top priority to the conservation of Asian elephant. In this study, we used the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to identify the current and potential future habitats of Asian elephants in South and Southeast Asia. We performed analyses for future projections with 17 scenarios by using the present results as baseline. To optimise the modelling results, we delineated the core habitats by using the Core Mapper Tool and compared them with existing protected areas (PAs) through gap analysis. The results showed that the current total area of core habitats is 491,455 km2 in size and will be reduced to 332,544 km2 by 2090 under SSP585 (the shared socioeconomic pathway). The projection analysis under differential scenarios suggested that most of the core habitats in the current protected areas would remain stable and suitable for elephants in the future. However, the remaining 75.17% of the core habitats lay outside the current PAs, and finally we mapped approximately 219,545 km2 of suitable habitats as priority protected areas in the future. Although our model did not perform well in some regions, our analyses and findings still could provide useful references to the planning of protected areas and conservation of Asian elephant.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202104.0088.v1
Subject: Physical Sciences, Acoustics Keywords: Classical limit; Semiclassical system; Semiclassical Chaos; Clasiccal Chaos; MaxEnt; Density matrix
Online: 5 April 2021 (10:19:59 CEST)
We work with reference to a well-known semiclassical model, in which quantum degrees of freedom interact with classical ones. We show that, in the classical limit, it is possible to represent classical results (e.g., classical chaos) by means a pure-state density matrix.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202206.0364.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Insect Science Keywords: Anoplophora glabripennis; Dastarcus helophoroides; Dendrocopos major; MaxEnt; climate change; natural enemy; pest management
Online: 27 June 2022 (11:01:09 CEST)
The Asian longhorned beetle (ALB), Anoplophora glabripennis is a forestry pest found worldwide. ALB causes serious harm because of the lack of natural enemies in the invaded areas. Dastarcus helophoroides and Dendrocopos major are important natural enemies of ALB. MaxEnt was used to simulate the distribution of D. helophoroides and D. major in China and Xinjiang, and their suitable areas were superimposed to evaluate the pest control ability of D. helophoroides and D. major. The results showed that, with climate change, the suitable areas of D. helophoroides and D. major migrated northward; the centroid shift of ALB was greater than that of D. helophoroides and D. major, which would lead to fewer natural enemies encountered by ALB during migration, reduce the control ability of natural enemies, and increase the risk of disastrous outbreaks in the invaded areas. We found that the damage caused by ALB was not serious in the areas with natural enemies and very serious in the areas without natural enemies. We suggest that natural enemies should be included in the model used for predicting suitable areas for invasive pests, as this is more conducive to assessing the risks of invasive organisms to the local ecological environment.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201912.0008.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior And Systematics Keywords: microclimate; water table depth; climate change impacts; cape restionaceae; species distribution modelling; maxent
Online: 2 December 2019 (10:14:59 CET)
The Cape Restionaceae species, an endemic of the Fynbos Biome, is threatened by urbanization, alien plant invasion, agricultural expansion, and groundwater extraction. This is further worsened by the semi-arid conditions and hydrological variability factors, which influences species niche dynamics. Therefore, it is important to assess and monitor the Restionaceae species for preservation of their endemism and richness. This study models the hydrological niche and distribution changes of Restionaceae species at the New Years Peak (NYP) at microclimate level for biodiversity conservation. MaxEnt modelling and GIS analytical approaches were applied at various stages in niche modelling process as follows: (i) microclimatic input raster layers’ generation, (ii) ecological modelling and hydrological niche manipulation, and (iii) spatial distributional change mapping. The hydrological niches of the Restionaceae were effectively examined under the recent climate and compared with RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 future climate scenarios as the microscale environmental inputs. The results showed that most of the studied Restionaceae species positioned themselves along a hydrological gradient. Each species tolerated a range of hydrological conditions, which formed their hydrological niche. Changing climate would cause both positive and negative species range shifts. The study assists in plant species conservation and future climate change impact analysis on endangered plant species.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201811.0234.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Applied Mathematics Keywords: information; entropy; interaction-information; multi-information; Möbius inversion; lattices; multivariable dependence; symmetric group; MaxEnt; networks
Online: 9 November 2018 (03:53:27 CET)
Information-related measures are useful tools for multi-variable data analysis, as measures of dependence among variables, and as descriptions of order and disorder in biological and physical systems. Measures, like marginal entropies, mutual / interaction / multi -information, have long been used in a number of fields including descriptions of systems complexity and biological data analysis. The mathematical relationships among these measures are therefore of significant inherent interest. Relations between common information measures include the duality relations based on Möbius inversion on lattices. These are the direct consequence of the symmetries of the lattices of the sets of variables (subsets ordered by inclusion). While these relationships are of significant interest there has been, to our knowledge, no systematic examination of the full range of relationships of this diverse range of functions into a unifying formalism as we do here. In this paper we define operators on functions on these lattices based on the Möbius inversions that map functions into one another (Möbius operators). We show that these operators form a simple group isomorphic to the symmetric group S3. Relations among the set of functions on the lattice are transparently expressed in terms of the operator algebra, and, applied to the information measures, can be used to derive a wide range of relationships among diverse information measures. The Möbius operator algebra is naturally generalized which yields extensive new relationships. This formalism now provides a fundamental unification of information-related measures, and the isomorphism of all distributive lattices with the subset lattice implies an even broader application of these results.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201705.0043.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Information Systems Keywords: Bayesian reliability analysis; Bayesian hierarchical model; MCMC method; scale mixtures of log-normal failure time model; stochastic constraint; two-stage MaxEnt prior.
Online: 4 May 2017 (16:26:10 CEST)
This paper develops Bayesian inference in reliability of a class of scale mixtures of log-normal failure time (SMLNFT) models with stochastic (or uncertain) constraint in their reliability measures. The class is comprehensive and includes existing failure time (FT) models (such as log-normal, log-Cauchy, and log-logistic FT models) as well as new models that are robust in terms of heavy-tailed FT observations. Since classical frequency approaches to reliability analysis based on the SMLNFT model with stochastic constraint are intractable, the Bayesian method is pursued utilizing a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling based approach. This paper introduces a two-stage maximum entropy (MaxEnt) prior, which elicits a priori uncertain constraint and develops Bayesian hierarchical SMLNFT model by using the prior. The paper also proposes an MCMC method for Bayesian inference in the SMLNFT model reliability and calls attention to properties of the MaxEnt prior that are useful for method development. Finally, two data sets are used to illustrate how the proposed methodology works.