One of the major problem of photovoltaic grid integration is limiting the solar-induced imbalances since these can undermine the security and stability of the electrical system. Improving the forecast accuracy of photovoltaic generation is becoming essential to allow a massive solar penetration. In particular, improving the forecast accuracy of large solar farms generation is important both for the producers/traders to minimize the imbalance costs and for the Transmission System Operators to insure stability. In this article, we provide a benchmark for the day-ahead forecast accuracy of utility scale PV plants in 1325 locations spanning the country of Italy. We then use these benchmarked forecasts and real energy prices to compute the economic value of forecast accuracy and accuracy improvement in the context of the Italian energy market regulatory framework. Through this study, we further point out some several important criticisms of the Italian “single pricing” system that brings to paradoxical and counterproductive effects regarding the need to reduce the imbalance volumes. Finally, we propose a new market-pricing rule and innovative actions to overcome these undesired effects of the current dispatching regulations.

Dye sensitized solar cell technology is having an important role in renewable energy research due to its features and low cost manufacturing processes. Devices based on this technology appear very well suited for integration into glazing systems due to their characteristics of transparency, color tuning and manufacturing directly on glass substrates. Field data of thermal and electrical characteristics of dye sensitized solar modules (DSM) are important since they can be used as input of building simulation models for the evaluation of their energy saving potential when integrated into buildings. However still few works in the literature provide this information. The study here presented wants to contribute to fill this gap providing a thermal and electrical characterization of a DSM in real operating conditions using a method developed in house. This method uses experimental data coming from test boxes exposed outdoor and dynamic simulation to provide thermal transmittance and solar heat gain coefficient (SHGC) of a DSM prototype. The device exhibits an U-value of 3.6 W/m²K, confirmed by an additional measurement carried on in the lab using a heat flux meter, and a SHGC of 0.2, value compliant with literature results. Electrical characterization evidences an increase of module power with respect to temperature causing DSM suitable for integration in building facades.

We introduce firm solar forecasts as a strategy to operate optimally overbuilt solar power plants in conjunction with optimally sized storage systems so as to make up for any power prediction errors, hence entirely remove load balancing uncertainty emanating from grid-connected solar fleets. A central part of this strategy is plant overbuilding that we term implicit storage. We show that strategy, while economically justifiable on its own account, is an effective entry step to least-cost ultra-high solar penetration where firm power generation will be a prerequisite. We demonstrate that in absence of an implicit storage strategy, ultra-high solar penetration would be vastly more expensive. Using the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) as a case study, we determine current and future cost of firm forecasts for a comprehensive set of scenarios in each ISO electrical region, comparing centralized vs. decentralized production and assessing load flexibility’s impact. We simulate the growth of the strategy from firm forecast to firm power generation. We conclude that ultra-high solar penetration enabled by the present strategy, whereby solar would firmly supply the entire NYISO load, could be achieved locally at electricity production costs comparable to current NYISO wholesale market prices.