ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201807.0440.v2
Subject: Engineering, Automotive Engineering Keywords: BEV; ownership cost analysis; design of experiments; forecasting; Monte Carlo simulation
Online: 17 August 2018 (12:59:31 CEST)
This study evaluates eight-year ownership costs for battery electric vehicles (BEV) versus non-plugin hybrid vehicles using forecasting to estimate future electricity and conventional gasoline prices and incorporating these in a multiple design of experiments simulation. Results suggest that while electric vehicles are statistically dominant in terms of variable costs over an 8-year life-span, high-performance hybrid non-plugins achieve variable fuel costs nearly as good as low-performing electric vehicles (those attaining only 3 miles per kilowatt hour) and that these hybrid acquisition costs are (on average) lower yet the vehicles retain higher residual values. In general, the six smallest ownership costs are split evenly between hybrid and electric vehicles; however, inflation for conventional regular gasoline is estimated to outstrip inflation per kilowatt hour. Thus, non-plugin hybrid cars are likely to require considerably more advanced engineering to keep pace.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201906.0081.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Computational Mathematics Keywords: trend-following; Monte Carlo; sensitivity analysis
Online: 11 June 2019 (03:53:07 CEST)
Systematic traders employ algorithmic strategies to manage their investments. As a result of the deterministic nature of such strategies, it is possible to determine their exact responses to any conceivable set of market conditions. Consequently, sensitivity analysis can be conducted to systematically uncover undesirable strategy behavior and enhance strategy robustness by adding controls to reduce exposure during periods of poor performance / unfavorable market conditions or increase exposure during periods of strong performance / favorable market conditions. In this study, we formulate both a simple systematic trend-following strategy (i.e., trading model) to simulate investment decisions, and a market model to simulate the evolution of instrument prices. We then map the relationship between market model parameters under various conditions and strategy performance. We focus, in particular, on identifying the performance impact of changes in both serial dependence in price variability and changes in the trend. The long-range serial dependence of the true range worsens performance of the simple classic trend-following strategy. During periods of strong performance, the dispersion of trading outcomes increases significantly as long-range serial dependence increases.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.1077.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: economic freedom; factor analysis; MEFI; labor market; government spending; taxation
Online: 15 June 2023 (07:26:59 CEST)
The Metropolitan Economic Freedom Index (MEFI) ranks cities based on their support of free market enterprise. In its current state, MEFI purports to measure three constructs (government spending, taxation, and labor market freedom) with three equally weighted variables for each one, assuming perfect substitutability of variables. This study investigates the statistical consistency of MEFI through Confirmatory Factor Analysis. Multiple models investigate current variable selection by providing a potentially better indicator of labor market freedom, aggregation assumptions by removing the requirements for fixed and equal weights, and statistical consistency by evaluating the fit between the data and models. Results indicate that the current MEFI model is not statistically consistent with the data, that weighting of variables should not be equal, that variable selection should be investigated, and that constructs should be re-imagined. The models investigated provide an initial starting point for redefining MEFI.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202002.0150.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Cardiac And Cardiovascular Systems Keywords: cardiovascular disease; smoking; drinking; underserved; disparities
Online: 11 February 2020 (14:55:10 CET)
The number one leading cause of death in 2017 for Americans was cardiovascular disease, and health disparities can exacerbate risks. This study evaluates the 2018 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (n=437,436) to estimate population risks for behavioral, socio-economic, psychological, and biological factors. A general linear model with a quasi-binomial link function indicated higher risks for the following groups: smokers, individuals with higher body-mass index scores, persons unable to work, individuals with depression, workers who missed more days due to mental issues, the elderly, those in race categories “indigenous Americans, Alaskan non-Hispanics” or “other, non-Hispanic,” and individuals with lower income. The results confirm previous studies and raise more questions about drinking and cardiovascular disease. Policy and ethical considerations are also discussed.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202212.0024.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Probability And Statistics Keywords: Positive Poisson distribution, Under dispersion, Bayesian analysis, prediction, index of infectivity.
Online: 1 December 2022 (10:25:33 CET)
Background. COVID-19 efforts were often ineffective in controlling the spread of the pandemic. Identifying ineffective controls during a pandemic is thus vital. Method. Utilizing publicly available data on COVID deaths in the counties of US states, we create an index to capture and interpret ineffectiveness in the efforts to reduce the spread of the pandemic in US counties. This index is based on the Intervened Poisson Distribution (IPD) introduced originally by Shanmugam. Motivation for the research idea occurred while we noticed the data dispersion of the COVID deaths is smaller than the average only in some counties. Under-dispersed data is common in statistical modeling. A novel approach we adapted in this article includes the estimation of an intervention parameter estimated through iterative non-linear optimization. Results. Twenty-five counties in California, Idaho, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Texas, and Utah were found to be ineffective in controlling for fatalities based on the expected probability distribution. A review of the policies enacted in these areas would provide insight into ineffective prevention efforts, and some of these issues are documented in current literature. Conclusion. The IPD index an innovate way to document efficacy of interventions during pandemics. The IPD may identify ineffective efforts prior to statistical models intended to evaluate efficacy of efforts.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0329.v2
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Epidemiology And Infectious Diseases Keywords: COVID-19; Geospatial Regression; Health Disparities; Public Health
Online: 11 September 2020 (09:48:57 CEST)
COVID-19 is a potentially fatal viral infection. This study investigates geography, demography, socioeconomics, health conditions, hospital characteristics, and politics as potential explanatory variables for death rates at the state and county levels. Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Census Bureau, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid, Definitive Healthcare, and USAfacts.org were used to evaluate regression models. Yearly pneumonia and flu death rates (state level, 2014-2018) were evaluated as a function of the governors’ political party using repeated measures analysis. At the state and county level, spatial regression models were evaluated. At the county level, we discovered a statistically significant model that included geography, population density, racial and ethnic status, three health status variables along with a political factor. State level analysis identified health status, minority status, and the interaction between governors’ parties and health status as important variables. The political factor, however, did not appear in a subsequent analysis of 2014-2018 pneumonia and flu death rates. The pathogenesis of COVID-19 has greater and disproportionate effect within racial and ethnic minority groups, and the political influence on the reporting of COVID-19 mortality was statistically relevant at the county level and as an interaction term only at the state level.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202003.0162.v1
Subject: Engineering, Architecture, Building And Construction Keywords: construction; rainwater harvesting; simulation; solar
Online: 10 March 2020 (10:26:12 CET)
This publicly available simulation analysis compares baseline construction options versus sustainable options and evaluates both break-even costs as well as environmental effects. The simulation (https://rminator.shinyapps.io/sustain4/) provides users with comparative estimates based upon existing research on costs. This is the first simulation of its type that quantifies multiple sustainable construction options, associated break-even points, and environmental considerations for public use. Results estimate that a 100% solar solution for the baseline 3,000 square foot / 279 square meter house with 2 occupants results in a break-even of 9 years. The simulation includes options for rainwater harvesting or wells, Icynene foam, engineered lumber, Energy Star windows and doors, low flow water fixtures, aerobic / non-aerobic waste treatment or municipal services, and many other options. This is the first simulation of its type to provide publicly available sustainable construction analysis based on research, and it illustrates that sustainable construction might be both green for the environment and green for the pocketbook.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202002.0002.v1
Subject: Engineering, Architecture, Building And Construction Keywords: construction; rainwater harvesting; solar; spray foam; finger-jointed studs
Online: 3 February 2020 (03:04:44 CET)
The question of building sustainable in a geographical locality is inexorably linked to cost. In 2011, one of the authors built a sustainable house that was (at the time) the highest certified sustainable home based on the National Association of Home Builder’s standards for sustainable construction. This Texas house has been used for residential and research purposes for the past decade. In this case study, the authors evaluate components of the construction and their effectiveness as well as unseen secondary and tertiary effects. Some of the specific components discussed are home site placement; rainwater harvesting (100% of residential requirements); aerobic septic system; grid-tied solar array power; electric car charging; geothermal heating and cooling; reclaimed wood framing; spray foam installation; selection of windows, fixtures, and appliances; on-demand electric water heaters for guest areas; generator backups; and use of local items. Electric bills and water system improvements are discussed in detail, as improvements were made as part of residential and research requirements. This case study suggests that the financial outlay is worth the extra up-front costs if residents in this geographical area and climate will occupy the residence 7 years.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201905.0165.v2
Online: 18 June 2019 (11:15:56 CEST)
Background: As the opioid epidemic continues, understanding the geospatial, temporal and demand patterns is important for policymakers to assign resources and interdict individual, organization, and country-level bad actors. Methods: GIS geospatial-temporal analysis and extreme-gradient boosted random forests evaluate ICD-10 F11 opioid-related admissions and admission rates using geospatial analysis, demand analysis, and explanatory models, respectively. The period of analysis was January 2016 through September 2018. Results: The analysis shows existing high opioid admissions in Chicago and New Jersey with emerging areas in Atlanta, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, and Las Vegas. High rates of admission (claims per 10,000 population) exist in the Appalachian area and on the Northeastern seaboard. Explanatory models suggest that hospital overall workload and financial variables might be used for allocating opioid-related treatment funds effectively. Gradient-boosted random forest models accounted for 87.8% of the variability of claims on blinded 20% test data. Conclusions: Based on the GIS analysis, opioid admissions appear to have spread geographically, while higher frequency rates are still found in some regions. Interdiction efforts require demand-analysis such as that provided in this study to allocate scarce resources for supply-side and demand-side interdiction: prevention, treatment, and enforcement. Based on GIS analysis, the opioid epidemic is likely to spread or diffuse through the country, and interdiction efforts require demand-analysis such as that provided in this study to allocate scarce resources for supply-side and demand-side interdiction: prevention, treatment, and enforcement.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201905.0064.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: tobacco product waste; framework convention; cigarette butts; tobacco control
Online: 6 May 2019 (12:21:37 CEST)
Cigarette butts, also known as tobacco product waste (TPW), are the single most collected item in environmental trash cleanups worldwide. This study used an online survey tool (Qualtrics) to assess knowledge, attitudes, and perceptions about this issue among individuals representing the Framework Convention Alliance (FCA). The FCA has about 683 members on its listserv, including non-governmental tobacco control advocacy groups that support implementation of the World Health Organization’s (WHO) Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC). Respondents (n = 65) represented countries from all six WHO regions. The majority (82%) had heard the term TPW, and all considered TPW as an environmental harm at some level. Additionally, 29% of respondents failed to identify that “cigarette filters make smoking easier.” Most (73%) correctly identified TPW components; however, fewer (60%) correctly identified the composition of cigarette butts. The majority (57%) were unfamiliar with Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) and Product Stewardship (PS) as possible environmental intervention strategies. Respondents expressing opinions concurred that adding a litter fee to fund TPW programs will aid in reducing tobacco use and reduce the environmental impacts of TPW (100%); that prevention, reduction, and mitigation of TPW could be an important part of international tobacco control programs (98%); and that banning smoking in outdoor venues could reduce TPW (95%). Only 16% reported effective prevention or clean-up efforts in their countries. Weighted rankings revealed that respondents’ saw the national government, the tobacco industry, and state governments as most important in addressing TPW. The results of this research will inform continuing international discussions by the FCTC Conference of the Parties (COP) regarding environmental policies that may be addressed within FCTC obligations.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202112.0126.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Health Policy And Services Keywords: Cost containment; Quality; Access
Online: 8 December 2021 (14:10:05 CET)
The purpose of this research is to determine if the tradeoffs that Kissick proposed among cost containment, quality, and access remain as rigidly interconnected as originally conceived in the contemporary health care context. Although many have relied on the Kissick model to advocate for health policy decisions, to our knowledge, the model has never been empirically tested. Some have called for policy makers to come to terms with the premise of the Kissick model tradeoffs, others have questioned the model given the proliferation of quality enhancing initiatives, automation, and information technology in the health care industry. One wonders whether these evolutionary changes alter or disrupt the originality of the Kissick paradigms themselves. Methods: Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) was used to evaluate the Kissick hypothetical relationships among the unobserved constructs of cost, quality, and access in hospitals for the year 2018. Hospital data were obtained from Definitive Healthcare a subscription site which contains Medicare data as well as non-Medicare data for networks, hospitals, and clinics (final n= 2,766). Results: Reporting significant net effects as defined by our chosen study variables, we find that as quality increases costs increase, as access increases quality increases, and as access increases, costs increase. Policy and Practice Implications: Our findings lend continued relevance to a balanced approach to health care policy reform efforts. Simultaneously bending the health care cost curve, increasing access to care, and advancing quality of care is as challenging now as it was when the Kissick model was originally conceived.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202106.0319.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Accounting And Taxation Keywords: CAHME; ACHE; program accreditation; professional affiliation; healthcare outcomes, financial performance
Online: 11 June 2021 (13:39:48 CEST)
The impact of organizational accreditation and professional certification and the evidence-based measurable impact of those for both academic programs and affiliates is one of specific interest to universities and individuals in the healthcare management field . The authors’ analysis examined the impact of hiring graduates from higher education programs that held external accreditation from the Commission on Accreditation of Healthcare Management Education (CAHME). Graduates’ affiliation with the American College of Healthcare Executives (ACHE) professional healthcare leadership organization was also assessed as an independent variable. Study outcomes focused on these graduates’ respective healthcare organization’s performance measures (cost, quality, and access) to assess the researchers’ inquiry into the perceived value of a CAHME-accredited graduate degree in healthcare administration and a professional ACHE affiliation . The results from this study found no effect of CAHME accreditation or ACHE affiliation on healthcare organization performance outcomes. The study findings support the need for future research surrounding healthcare administration professional graduate degree program characteristics and leader development affiliations, as perceived by various industry stakeholders.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201905.0229.v3
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: unconventional oil and gas development; health survey; anthropogenic impacts; perception
Online: 12 July 2019 (06:28:16 CEST)
The expansion of unconventional oil and gas development (UD) across the US continues to be at the center of debates regarding safety to health and the environment. This study evaluated the water quality of private water wells in the Eagle Ford Shale within the context of community members’ perceptions. Community members (n=75) were surveyed regarding health status and perceptions of drinking water quality. Water samples from respondent volunteers (n=19) were collected from private wells and tested for a variety of water quality parameters. Of the private wells sampled, 8 had exceedances of MCLs for drinking water standards. Geospatial descriptive analysis illustrates the distributions of the well exceedance as well as the well owners’ overall health status. Surveys showed that the majority of respondents received their water from a municipal source and were significantly more distrustful of their water source than of those on private wells. In many cases, there are statistically significant differences between self-reported, provider undiagnosed conditions and self-reported, provider diagnosed conditions. Attitudes and perceptions of water quality may play an important role in the overall perceived health status of community members in high fracking regions.