ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202110.0037.v1
Subject: Engineering, Electrical And Electronic Engineering Keywords: photovoltaic generation forecast; probabilistic forecast; prediction interval; ensemble forecast; day ahead forecasting; multiple PV forecasting
Online: 4 October 2021 (09:55:37 CEST)
Photovoltaic (PV) generation is potentially uncertain. Probabilistic PV generation forecasting methods have been proposed with prediction intervals (PIs). However, several studies have dealt with geographically distributed PVs in a certain area. In this study, a two-step probabilistic forecast scheme is proposed for geographically distributed PV generation forecasting. Each step of the proposed scheme adopts ensemble forecasting based on three different machine-learning methods. In this case study, the proposed scheme was compared with conventional non-multistep forecasting. The proposed scheme improved the reliability of the PIs and deterministic PV forecasting results through 30 days of continuous operation with real data in Japan.