The Republic of Venice was one of the longest-lived states in modern history, and its stability and survival has been studied through many different angles, and one of them is to try and find pivotal moments in its history that explain it, or its eventual demise. In this paper, through the rigorous statistical analysis of the dataset of marriages by nobles in the Republic, we will try to define a methodology for the detection of these events through mono and multivariate change point analysis, and validate that methodology through cross-validation of different procedures, as well as matching the results to historical events. Our analysis shows that these change points occur with statistical significance and that they match political and historical events. These results can be built upon for a better understanding of the historical causes of the success and failure of the Republic of Venice and, by extension, other states.

During most of the lifespan of the Venetian republic, doges or presidents were elected for life. However, a long tenure was a rare event, which effectively resulted in term limits, as has already been deported by several authors. In this paper we examine these tenures and its evolution during the existence of the Venetian republic, trying to prove Smith et al. thesis, but also the event or events that effectively caused that limitation by design. Finally, we will discuss for the causes of this limitation and its effective consequences.