Bayesian model calibration techniques are commonly employed in the characterization of nonlinear dynamic systems, as they provide a conceptual and effective framework to deal with model uncertainties, experimental errors and procedure assumptions. This understanding has resulted in the need to introduce a model discrepancy term to account for the differences between model-based predictions and real observations. Indeed, the goal of this work is to enhance model-driven Structural Health Monitoring procedures by incorporating the posterior uncertainty linked to updated model discrepancy, and thus make relevant considerations for its use in the Structural Health Monitoring. Specifically, the Bayesian inference has been applied to the calibration of nonlinear hysteretic systems to both provide: (i) most probable values (MPV) of the parameters following the calibration, and; (ii) estimates of the model discrepancy posterior distribution. The effect of the model discrepancy in the calibration is first illustrated recurring to a single degree of freedom Bouc-Wen type oscillator, and then applied for calibrating a reference nonlinear Bouc-Wen model, deriving from real data acquired on a monitored masonry building.

In this paper, we present a new stress calculation method for flexible structures, particularly, the tensile armors, and apply it to flexible riser fatigue analysis. The method is based on a 3-dimensional curved bar theory. First, the tensile armor center line was described as a cylindrical helix curve, its bended curve length and bending migration length were derived and studied under different friction scenarios. Second, the tensile and bending stiffness was given with consideration of frictional hysteretic effect, and verified through FEA analysis results. Third, we presented the stress calculation formula for tensile armor under tension and bending load. All stress components are considered, including tensile, bending and shear stresses. Fourth, the method was benchmarked with published experimental results on a flexible prototype tension and bending tests, and comparisons showed general agreements. Fifth, the method is further applied to a 8” flexible riser for fatigue assessment and lifetime extension evaluation, and showed the flexible riser has sufficient remaining fatigue life, and is suitable to continue its service under the current operating conditions. Last, conclusions are drawn. It concluded that the presented tensile armor stress calculation method and modelling techniques are valid for flexible riser fatigue analysis. This method is time efficient, and can be implemented into other multi-scale models for riser dynamic analysis. It is also applicable to other similar helix structure stress analysis, such as wire ropes, submarine hoses, and subsea umbilicals.