In this study, by using Least Square Method, the dataset for the Gross Domestic Product per capita is modeled as a function satisfying the fractional differential equation. The function itself is assumed to be the finite summation of its previous values and the derivatives with unknown coefficients. Then, the prediction for the upcoming years is done by having an approach dividing the dataset into 4 regions corresponding to four different tasks. The mathematical model of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita of the countries (and union) which are Brazil, China, European Union (EU), India, Italy, Japan, UK, the USA, Spain, and Turkey is constructed with a new methodology called as the deep assessment method which comes from the expressing an arbitrary function modeling the dataset as the finite summation of its previous values and the derivatives with unknown coefficient. The method uses the fractional calculus properties combining with Least Square Method and is compared to Long short-term memory (LSTM) algorithm which is a special type of neural network used for time sequences in general.

Africa is expected to have a lion’s Share in the world’s population growth by 2050. At the same time, the World Health Organisation (WHO) reported that roughly 3.4 percent (1/25) of African adults live with HIV making the contient the most severely affected by the HIV pandemic. Consequently, this study, the first of its kind, investigates the impact of population growth and HIV incidence on economic growth and economic development in Africa by utilizing the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator on data from 1990 to 2020 across 29 countries. The results show that population growth has a postive long run impact on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) but has a negative long run impact on per capita GDP, albeit the effects are insignificant in the short run. The incidence of HIV has a negative long run impact on both GDP and per capita GDP although its effect is not significant in the short run. The study, therefore, calls for the advancement of family planning practices and the usage of contraceptives to simultaneously control population growth and curb the spread of HIV incidence. The study futher calls for African governments to increase budgetary allocations to the health and education sectors, as these policy perspectives have the potential of increasing the human capital stock and at the same time enhancing the health status of the work force for sustained growth and development.

Uganda is one of the poorest nations in the world. To address the developmental challenges and understand social and economic status, it is important to obtain accurate data in a timely manner. Many studies have demonstrated that nighttime lights (NTL) can be used to measure human activities. Nevertheless, methods developed from these studies (1) suffer from coarse resolutions, (2) fail to capture the nonlinearity and multi-scale variability of geospatial data, and (3) perform poorly for agriculture-dependent regions. This study proposes a new enhanced light intensity model (ELIM) to estimate the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at sub-national scales for Uganda. This model is developed by combining the NTL data from the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (NPP-VIIRS), the population data from the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL), and information on agricultural production and market prices across several commodity types. This resulted in a gridded dataset for GDP and GDP per capita for Uganda at 1 km spatial resolution and district level to capture the spatial heterogeneity in economic activity.

This paper examines how housing prices are determined by macroeconomic factors in Saudi Arabia, namely, Gross Domestic Product Per capita (GDPP), Consumer Prices Index (CPI), and Unemployment Rate (UNEMP). Quarterly data for a period (2014q1 – 2019q4) were collected from publications of Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA). Vector Autoregression Analysis (VAR) is employed to capture the dynamic effect of the variables on housing prices. Granger Causality, Variance Decomposition and Impulse response function are also used. The results show that housing prices are insignificantly and positively related to GDPP, whereas it is negatively related to both (CPI & UNEMP). Only CPI has a significant relationship. The three variables, jointly, have Granger causality on HPI. Variance decompositions show that CPI is the variable with the highest explanatory power over the variation of housing prices, followed by GDPP and the UNEMP respectively indicating that CPI is the most influential determinants for housing prices.

The threat of fine particulate matter concentration (PM2.5) is increasing globally, Tackling this issue requires an accurate understanding of its trends and drivers. The article investigates the PM2.5 characteristics of 285 prefecture-level cities in China from 2000-2018 based on multiscale geographically weighted regression(MGWR), and the results show that（1）previous studies based on classical MGWR models may be somewhat unstable, while MGWR can reflect the scale of influence of different variables on the dependent variable, and its regression results are more reliable.（2）PM2.5 is very sensitive to carbon emission(CE) factors, and there is a high degree of spatial heterogeneity, and the influence scale of location is the smallest among all variables, close to the municipal scale.（3）In 2000, the constant term all, IS, OFT, CE, and LT positively affect PM2.5, while GDP (jurisdiction) and UR negatively affect PM2.5; in 2010, the constant term all, GDP (jurisdiction), IS, OFT and LT positively affect PM2.5, while UR and CE negatively affect PM2.5; in 2018 the constant term all, IS, OFT and CE factors positively affect PM2.5, and GDP (jurisdiction), UR and LT negatively affect PM2.5.

The paper examines the effects of crude oil price shocks on the Indian economy development and GDP Growth for the period of 2010 till 2018. The present Indian economy growth has been facing the identical issues of escalating the trade disparity and continuing inflation. In this connection, the study focused on the determine relationship between the speculation and crude oil price impact on the Indian economic development activity and GDP growth and the paper investigated the how oil price variations effect on the Indian economy development through different networks, viz. WPI, CP, IIP, GDP, Monetary policy, trade and investment. The paper used methods an GARCH model and description to tool the volatility on both the oil and stock markets and then developed an extension of the vector auto-regression (VAR) models are also applied to determine the oil price shocks effect on macroeconomic indicators and the outcomes of co-integration model propose that crude oil is pro‐cyclical to output, and the paper used VAR investigation to the discrepancy decomposition to capture the linear inter‐dependencies among the variables.

The paper examines the effects of crude oil price shocks on the Indian economy development and GDP Growth for the period of 2010 till 2018. The present Indian economy growth has been facing the identical issues of escalating the trade disparity and continuing inflation. In this connection, the study focused on the determine relationship between the speculation and crude oil price impact on the Indian economic development activity and GDP growth and the paper investigated the how oil price variations effect on the Indian economy development through different networks, viz. WPI, CP, IIP, GDP, Monetary policy, trade and investment. The paper used methods an GARCH model and description to tool the volatility on both the oil and stock markets and then developed an extension of the vector auto-regression (VAR) models are also applied to determine the oil price shocks effect on macroeconomic indicators and the outcomes of co-integration model propose that crude oil is pro‐cyclical to output, and the paper used VAR investigation to the discrepancy decomposition to capture the linear inter‐dependencies among the variables.

The pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 virus obstructed the Chinese economy and has expanded to the rest of the world at a rapid pace affecting at least 215 countries, areas and territories. The advancement of the disease and its economic repercussions is profoundly ambiguous, making it challenging for policymakers to formulate suitable microeconomic and macroeconomic policy responses. The scenarios in this paper illustrate how an outbreak could significantly affect the global economy in the short run. It has been estimated that each additional month of crisis would cost from about 2.5-3% of the global GDP and that the GDP growth would take a blow, reaching about 3-6%, depending on the country. Scenarios also suggest that GDP can drop by more than 10% and even exceed 15% in some countries. Via addressing the economic consequence of COVID-19 in different industries and countries, the paper presents assessments of the likely global economic costs of COVID-19 and the GDP growth of different countries. Economies will be negatively affected because of the high number of jobs at risk. Countries highly dependent on foreign trade are more negatively affected. Given that disease and its economic influence are highly unpredictable in numerous aspects, the global economy at the moment is the most critically threatened in history.

Results of rapid economic growth, China, USA, and India have become the largest energy stealer and the greatest emitter of CO₂ in the world and burn over 45% of global fuels in 2016. Meanwhile, the developing strategies of 24 polluted countries to decrease the energy consumption without additional economic output. This paper is exploring the effect of world top polluted countries C0₂ emission and their GDP and the production of electricity by energy indicators. The GLM model is not predict logistic and probit analysis directly; instead, it is mainly used for instinct to response of CO₂ emission, using data for the period 1968-2017. The huge production of electricity will cause of abnormal CO₂; this study offers true indication of exploring consumption of energy issues from the perspective of Granger casual and a positive unidirectional causality is detected between energy consumption to economic growth, while short-run bidirectional casualty exists among energy indicators.

In the book “Everyhing Is A Circle: A New Model For Orbits Of Bodies In The Universe”, and further in the Article “Distance Between Two Circles in Any Number of Dimensions is a Vector Ellipse”, it has been mathematically demonstrated that “distance between points on any two different circles in any number of multiple dimensions” is equivalent to “distance of points on a vector ellipse from another fixed or moving point”. Using this mathematical methodology, a method is provided in this Article as a measure for the amount of interaction between two international economies, which are two countries or economic zones, by modelling each economy in terms of a “circle in four dimensions”. Based on this method, the proximity of the two economies at the end of each fiscal period, which is generally a fiscal year, is then measured by the distance between points at the end of the given period on the two circles in four dimensions, associated with these two economies in our model.

Increase in the emission of Greenhouse Gases (GHS) is among the significant concerns of government, societies, and policymakers. Due to the highest share of carbon dioxide in the produced GHGs, it is necessary to assess the factors that influence its emission. Energy systems and economic activities noticeably influence the amount of carbon dioxide production of countries. In this article, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) in addition to a linear correlation used to predict carbon dioxide emission of four CIS countries, including Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan based the consumption of various energy sources and GDP, as the economic indicator. According to the obtained data by the proposed models, carbon dioxide emission can be accurately estimated by utilizing the mentioned input data. Models’ R-squared value are 0.9997 and 0.9999 in the cases of applying the correlation and ANN-based model. Moreover, the average absolute relative deviations by utilizing the correlation and GMDH ANN are approximately 1.05% and 0.61%, respectively. These statistical values demonstrate more proper performance of the ANN-based model compared with the applied linear correlation.

This research investigates the impact of oil price fluctuations on food prices in Saudi Arabia between 1979 and 2020 using Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lags (NARDL) methodology. The study employs Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillip Perron (PP) tests to determine the integration order of the variables and Bounds testing to confirm the existence of long-run cointegration relationships between each variable. The results indicate that oil shocks influence food prices through several mechanisms. Firstly, the cost of energy increases due to the rise in oil prices, affecting the agricultural commodity market, including farm equipment, food processing, packaging, and distribution costs. Secondly, the demand for agricultural commodities to produce biofuels affects food availability and, thus, food prices. Thirdly, as an oil-based economy, the oil price shock affects food prices through its impact on government spending, which affects aggregate demand and liquidity. Therefore, Saudi Arabia should adopt appropriate policies to mitigate the impact of oil price shocks on food prices, including investing in renewable energy sources, diversifying its economy, and improving food production and supply chain efficiency. Additionally, implementing appropriate fiscal policies to ensure sufficient budget allocation for food support programs is crucial. However, investing in groundwater exploration can contribute significantly to the development of Saudi agriculture and to gradually achieving food self-sufficiency.

This paper applies a new artificial intelligence architecture, the Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT), for the joint GDP forecasting of 25 OECD countries at different time horizons. This new attention-based architecture offers significant advantages over other deep learning methods. First, results are interpretable since the impact of each explanatory variable on each forecast can be calculated. Second, it allows to visualize persistent temporal patterns and to identify significant events and different regimes. Third, it provides quantile regressions and permits to train the model on multiple time series from different distributions. Results suggest that TFTs outperform regression models, especially in periods of turbulence such as the COVID-19 shock. Interesting economic interpretations are obtained depending on whether the country is domestic demand-led or export-led growth. In essence, TFT is revealed as a new tool that artificial intelligence provides to economists and policy makers, with enormous prospects for the future.

In this paper, we investigate the role of sanctions in the relationship between macroeconomic determinants and foreign direct investment inflows. We also investigate the moderating role of sanctions in FDI inflows into Iran. The empirical results reveal that macro determinants such as infrastructure, exchange rate, inflation rate, investment return, and governance have a long-run impact on FDI inflows in Iran. Our findings also show that GDP growth rate and trade openness have no significant effect on FDI. Our results indicate that sanctions do not have a significant moderating role in the relationship between macroeconomic factors and foreign direct investment. Surprisingly, international sanctions have a positive relationship with FDI inflows in Iran. Furthermore, sanction has a positive impact on the inflation rate and exchange rate in Iran. Finally, our findings show that sanctions have had a significant impact on Iran's economic growth in recent years due to increasing the severity level of sanctions.

Nighttime lights (NTL) are a popular type of data for evaluating economic performance of regions and economic impacts of various shocks and interventions. Several validation studies use traditional statistics on economic activity like national or regional Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a benchmark to evaluate the usefulness of NTL data. Many of these studies rely on dated and imprecise Defence Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) data and use aggregated units such as nation-states or the first sub-national level. Yet applied researchers who draw support from validation studies to justify their use of NTL data as a proxy for economic activity increasingly focus on smaller and lower level spatial units. This study uses a 2001-19 time-series of GDP for over 3100 US counties as a benchmark to examine the usefulness of the recently released version 2 VIIRS nighttime lights (V.2 VNL) products as proxies for local economic activity. Contrasts are made between cross-sectional predictions for GDP differences between areas and time-series predictions of GDP changes within areas. Disaggregated GDP data for various industries are used to examine what types of economic activity are best proxied by NTL data and comparisons are also made with the predictive performance of earlier NTL data products.

In most econometrics literature, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is often applied in many economic analyses to study short and long run relationships. This is because ARDL model can deal with economic variables that are integrated of different order (I(0), I(1) or combination of both) and also it is robust where there is single long-run relationship between the underlying variables in a simple sample size. This study applied the ARDL model to examine the contributions of commercial Banks to GDP growth in Nigeria. To achieve this, annual data covering 1981 to 2015 for loans and advances, savings, lending rates and GDP of Financial Institutions were collected from CBN bulletin. The ADF test revealed that the variables are I(1) except for lending rate which was of I(0) order. The ARDL(1,1,1,2) model revealed that loans and advances, and lending rates are significantly positively related to GDP in Nigeria but savings was not significant in the model. The model revealed some evidence of short run relationships while the ecm(-1) was -0.6156 (P-value=0.0038<0.05) which means that the rate of the speed of adjustment to equilibrium is 61.56% annually. The estimated model is free from serial correlation, multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity while the model is stable and the residuals are normally distributed. The study recommends that savings and savings culture should be encouraged in Nigeria since economic theory states that savings and investment are related in any economic development.

Developments in technology have enabled envisioning the derivation of materials and products from renewable biomass, as an alternative to finite fossil-based resource consumption. Therefore, bioeconomy is regarded as an opportunity for sustainable economic growth. Countries are formulating strategies in accordance with their goals to attain from bioeconomy. Proper measurement, monitoring and reporting of the outcomes of these strategies is crucial for long-term success. This study aims to critically evaluate the national methods used for the measurement, monitoring and reporting of bioeconomy contribution to the total economy. For this purpose, research and surveys have been conducted on selected countries (Argentina, Germany, Malaysia, the Netherlands, South Africa and the United States). The results reveal that the bioeconomy targets set up in the strategies often reflect country’s priorities and comparative advantages. However, comprehensive approaches to measure and monitor bioeconomy progress are frequently lacking. Most countries only measure the contribution to gross domestic product (GDP), turnover and employment of the sectors included in their bioeconomy definition, which may provide an incomplete picture. In addition, this study identifies the mismatch between the targets and measurement methods, as the environmental and social impacts of bioeconomy are often foreseen, but not measured. It is concluded that existing global efforts towards a sustainable bioeconomy monitoring can be strengthened and leveraged to measure progress towards sustainable goals.

This study assesses the dynamic relationship between macroeconomic factors and bank asset quality based on changes in the condition of stock market returns. A Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) model is employed, using panel data from 18 universal banks spanning the period 2007 to 2021. The analysis revealed that the real GDP growth rate, the average lending rate, and the real exchange rate represent a set of macroeconomic factors with a marked influence on banks' asset quality. In addition, a high inflation rate was found to exert an adverse effect on asset quality, as it affects borrowers' financial ability to meet loan repayment obligations. Furthermore, the study verified the existence of a positive relationship between market condition and asset quality, which implies that bank performance adapts to changes in market conditions as posited under the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH). Bank managers should consolidate banks' asset bases during conditions of market stability to withstand periodic market fluctuations to boost trading momentum. Policy recommendations are suggested to foster a conducive business environment for bank stability.

Ensuring equal access to affordable higher education for women and men has become a crucial target of UNESCO’s SDG4-Education 2030. Currently, about one-third of the world's college-age population participates in higher education, while the gender disparity persists in various systems. This study employed GDP per capita, gross enrollment ratio (GER), and the gender parity index (GPI) to demonstrate how the education systems have expanded resulting in the transformation of gender parity. We selected Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and the UK as research targets using a cross-correlation function and trend analysis to detect concurrent relationships and future trends with GDP per capita, GER, and GPI. The findings suggest Japan, Korea, and the UK continue to show gender disparity and need to respond to this issue in their policy intervention for SDG4-Education 2030. The results reveal a potential problem in the UK when GPI growth might become unlimited with females dominated. This study suggests the higher education expansion phenomenon and gender diversity in mass and universal systems can be detected by the trend analysis with GDP per capita, GER, and GPI in different settings. The design of the study provides an example to explore the gender diversity patterns in higher education systems for sustainable development.

The present reality about the Nigerian economy calls for investment and development in the non-oil sector. This becomes necessary as a result of fall in the oil price in the global market. This paper examined the Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) modeling and forecasting of the dynamic interrelationship between Economic growth and revenue from the oil and non-oil sectors in Nigeria. To achieve this, annual data on Gross Domestic Product (GDP), revenue from oil and non-oil sectors were collected from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) bulletin, the sample from 1981 to 2008 was used for analysis, while sample from 2009 to 2014 was used for model validation. Six (6) versions of Sims-Zha BVAR models were compared for out-of-sample forecast, the result revealed the superiority of the BVAR6 model over the other BVAR models. Lastly, evidence from the decomposition forecast errors revealed that revenue of oil sector contributed 7.69% to GDP while revenue from non-oil sector contributed 0.12% to GDP in Nigeria. This paper therefore recommended that the present government should encourage investment that is geared toward development in the non-oil sector, of which it has the capacity to improve the Economic growth of the Nigerian economy.