Software engineering is a comprehensive process that requires developers and team members to collaborate across multiple tasks. In software testing, bug triaging is a tedious and time-consuming process. Assigning bugs to the appropriate developers can save time and maintain their motivation. However, without knowledge about a bug's class, triaging is difficult. Motivated by this challenge, this paper focuses on the problem of assigning the suitable developer to new bug by analyzing the history of developers’ profiles and analyzing history of bugs for all developers using machine learning-based recommender systems. Explainable AI (XAI) is AI that humans can understand. It contrasts with "black box" AI, which even its designers can't explain. By providing appropriate explanations for results, users can better comprehend the underlying insight behind the outcomes, boosting the recommender system's effectiveness, transparency, and confidence. In this paper, we propose two explainable models for recommendation. The first one is an explainable recommender model for personalized developers generated from bug history to know what the preferred type of bug is for each developer. The second model is an explainable recommender model based on bugs to generate the best developer for each bug from bug history.

This paper explores the tuning and results of two-part models on rich datasets provided through the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS). These data sets include BI (bodily injury), PD (property damage) and COLL (collision) coverage, each documenting policy characteristics and claims across a four year period. The datasets are explored, including summaries of all variables, then the methods for modeling are set forth. Models are tuned and the tuning results are displayed, after which we train the final models and seek to explain select predictions. All of the code will be made available on GitHub. Data was provided by a private insurance carrier to the CAS after anonymizing the data set. This data is available to actuarial researchers for well-defined research projects that have universal benefit to the insurance industry and the public. Our hope is that the methods demonstrated here can be a good foundation for future ratemaking models to be developed and tested more efficiently.

Deep learning has already revolutionised the way we process a wide range of data, in many areas of our daily life. The ability to learn abstractions and relationships from heterogeneous data, has provided impressively accurate prediction and classification tools to handle increasingly big datasets. This has a significant impact on the growing wealth of omics datasets, with the unprecedented opportunity for a better understanding of the complexity of living organisms. While this revolution is transforming the way we analyse these data, explainable deep learning is emerging as an additional tool with the potential to change the way we interpret biological data. Explainability addresses critical issues such as transparency, so important when computational tools are introduced especially in clinical environments. Moreover, it empowers artificial intelligence with the capability to provide new insights in the input data, thus adding an element of discovery to these already powerful resources. In this review we provide an overview of the transformative effects explainable deep learning is having on multiple sectors, ranging from genome engineering and genomics, from radiomics to drug design and clinical trials. We offer a perspective to life scientists, to better understand the potential of these tools, and a motivation to implement them in their research, by suggesting learning resources they can use to move their first steps in this field.

The world has been evolving with new technologies and advances day-by-day. With the advent of various learning technologies in every field, the research community is able to provide solution in every aspect of life with the applications of Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, Deep Learning, Computer Vision, etc. However, with such high achievements, it is found to lag behind the ability to provide explanation against its prediction. The current situation is such that these modern technologies are able to predict and decide upon various cases more accurately and speedily than a human, but failed to provide an answer when the question of why to trust its prediction is put forward. In order to attain a deeper understanding into this rising trend, we explore a very recent and talked-about novel contribution which provides rich insight on a prediction being made -- ``Explainability.'' The main premise of this survey is to provide an overview for researches explored in the domain and obtain an idea of the current scenario along with the advancements published to-date in this field. This survey is intended to provide a comprehensive background of the broad spectrum of Explainability.

This paper addresses the critical issue of trust in Artificial Intelligence systems, especially when users might find it challenging to comprehend the internal decision-making processes of such systems. A relevant topic of research in this respect is Theory of Mind, which involves attempting to understand these systems as if they possessed beliefs, desires, and intentions. We focus on the latter: intentions, and we examine how producing explanations based on them can improve \emph{understandability} while allowing for a better interpretation of how they align with human values. We also review some existing methods for identifying intentions in AI systems and we conclude with a discussion on possible future directions in this line of research.

There is a significant risk of injury in sports and intense competition due to the demanding physical and psychological requirements. Hamstring strain injuries (HSI) are the most prevalent type of injury among professional soccer players and are the leading cause of missed days in the sport. These injuries stem from a combination of factors, making it challenging to pinpoint the most crucial risk factors and their interactions, let alone find effective prevention strategies. Recently, there has been a growing recognition of the potential of tools provided by artificial intelligence (AI). However, current studies primarily concentrate on enhancing the performance of complex machine learning models, often overlooking their explanatory capabilities. Consequently, medical teams encounter difficulty interpreting these models and are hesitant to trust them fully. In light of this, there is an increasing need for advanced injury detection and prediction models that can aid doctors in diagnosing or detecting injuries earlier and with greater accuracy. Accordingly, this study aims to identify biomarkers of muscle injuries in professional soccer players through a biomechanical analysis, employing several ML algorithms, such as Decision tree (DT) methods, Discriminant methods, Logistic regression, Naive Bayes, Support vector machine (SVM), K-nearest neighbor (KNN), Ensemble methods, Boosted and bagged trees, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), and XGBoost. In particular, XGBoost was also used to obtain the most important features. The findings highlight that the variables that most effectively differentiate the groups and could serve as reliable predictors for injury prevention are the maximum muscle strength of the hamstrings and the stiffness of the same muscle. With regards to the 35 techniques employed, a precision of up to 78% was achieved with XGBoost, indicating that by considering scientific evidence, suggestions based on various data sources, and expert opinions, it is possible to attain good precision, thus enhancing the reliability of the results for doctors and trainers. Furthermore, the obtained results strongly align with the existing literature, although further specific studies about this sport are necessary to draw a definitive conclusion.

Clinicians are often very sceptical about applying automatic image processing approaches, especially deep learning based methods, in practice. One main reason for this is the black-box nature of these approaches and the inherent problem of missing insights of the automatically derived decisions. In order to increase trust in these methods, this paper presents approaches that help to interpret and explain the results of deep learning algorithms by depicting the anatomical areas which influence the decision of the algorithm most. Moreover, this research presents a unified framework, TorchEsegeta, for applying various interpretability and explainability techniques for deep learning models and generate visual interpretations and explanations for clinicians to corroborate their clinical findings. In addition, this will aid in gaining confidence in such methods. The framework builds on existing interpretability and explainability techniques that are currently focusing on classification models, extending them to segmentation tasks. In addition, these methods have been adapted to 3D models for volumetric analysis. The proposed framework provides methods to quantitatively compare visual explanations using infidelity and sensitivity metrics. This framework can be used by data scientists to perform post-hoc interpretations and explanations of their models, develop more explainable tools and present the findings to clinicians to increase their faith in such models. The proposed framework was evaluated based on a use case scenario of vessel segmentation models trained on Time-of-fight (TOF) Magnetic Resonance Angiogram (MRA) images of the human brain. Quantitative and qualitative results of a comparative study of different models and interpretability methods are presented. Furthermore, this paper provides an extensive overview of several existing interpretability and explainability methods.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) approaches that could learn from large data sources have been identified as useful tools to support clinicians in their decisional process; AI and ML implementations have had a rapid acceleration during the recent COVID-19 pandemic. However, many ML classifiers are “black box” to the final user, since their underlying reasoning process is often obscure. Additionally, the performance of such models suffer from poor generalization ability in presence of dataset shift. Here, we present a comparison between an explainable-by-design (“white box”) model (Bayesian Network (BN)) versus a black-box model (Random Forest), both studied with the aim to support clinicians of Policlinico San Matteo University Hospital in Pavia (Italy) during the triage of COVID-19 patients. Our aim is to evaluate whether the BN predictive performances are comparable with those of a widely used but less explainable ML model such as Random Forest and to test the generalization ability of the ML models across different waves of the pandemic.

The global spread of COVID-19 led the World Health Organization to declare a pandemic on 11 March 2020. To decelerate this spread, countries have taken strict measures that affected the lifestyle and economy. Various studies have been focused on the identification of COVID-19 impact to mental health of children and adolescents via traditional statistical approaches. However, a machine learning methodology must be developed to explain the main factors that contribute to the change of mood state of children and adolescents during the first lockdown. Therefore, to this study an explainable machine learning pipeline is presented focusing on children and adolescents in Greece, where a strict lockdown was imposed. The target group consists of children and adolescents, recruited from children and adolescent mental health services, who present mental health problems diagnosed before the pandemic. The proposed methodology imposes: (i) data collection via questionnaires; (ii) a clustering process to identify the groups of subjects with amelioration, deterioration and stability to their mood state; (iii) a feature selection process to identify the most informative features that contribute to mood state prediction; (iv) a decision-making process based on an experimental evaluation among classifiers; (v) calibration of the best performing model and (v) a post-hoc interpretation of the features’ impact on the best performing model. The results showed that a blend of heterogeneous features from almost all feature categories is necessary to increase our understanding regarding the effect of COVID-19 pandemic on the mood state of children and adolescents.

In order to design efficient and sustainable office spaces and to automate lighting, heating and air circulation in these facilities, solving the challenge of occupancy prediction is crucial. In office spaces where large areas need to be observed, multiple sensors must be used for full coverage. In these cases, it is normally important to keep the costs low, but also to make sure that the privacy of the people who use such environments are preserved. Low-cost and low-resolution heat (thermal) sensors can be very useful to build solutions that address these concerns. However, they are extremely sensitive to noise artifacts which might be caused by heat prints of the people who left the space or by other objects which are either using electricity or exposed to sunlight. There are some earlier solutions for occupancy prediction that employ low-resolution heat sensors, however, they have not addressed nor compensate for such heat artifacts. Therefore, in this paper, we present a low-cost and low-energy consuming smart space implementation to predict the number of people in the environment based on whether their activity is static or dynamic in time. We use a low-resolution (8×8) and non-intrusive heat sensor to collect data from an actual meeting room. We propose two novel workflows to predict the occupancy; one based on computer vision and one based on machine learning. Besides comparing the advantages and disadvantages of these different workflows, we use several state-of-the-art explainability methods in order to provide a detailed analysis of the algorithm parameters and how the image properties influence the resulting performance. Furthermore, we analyze noise resources which affect the heat sensor data. We hope that our analysis brings light into understanding how to handle very low-resolution heat images in these environments. The presented workflows could be used in various domains and applications other than smart offices, where occupancy prediction is essential, e.g., for elderly care.

Hybrid forecasting methods have emerged as a solution surpassing the limitations of both statistical and deep learning approaches. While the first emphasize the significance of variables, they often produce worse forecasting results when compared to newer techniques. In contrast, deep learning models remain enigmatic "black boxes" in terms of interpretability, although achieving better results in forecasting. This article introduces the Comprehensive Cross-Correlation and Lagged Linear Regression Deep Learning (CCLR-DL) framework, designed to harness the best of both approaches, enhancing forecasting accuracy while retaining model interpretability through a feature selection process. CCLR-DL blens cross-correlation analysis, lagged multiple linear regression and granger's causality procedures with deep learning architectures based on LSTM. In a practical demonstration, CCLR-DL was applied to a real database of clinical visits associated to diagnoses in Catalonia, Spain (tracking a population of 6.3 million patients during 10 years). Predicting visits enables the healthcare managers to be ready for future demand shifts. Results demonstrate a consistent and substantial improvement over standalone statistical and deep learning methods when predicting healthcare demand. This hybrid approach not only showcases its efficacy but also offers a promising solution to the challenge of balancing predictive accuracy with model explicability. In this context, this work aims to design and validate a method for feature selection and forecasting of multivariate high dimensional time series datasets not only to improve prediction accuracy but also to model transparency by identifying a subset of variables that improve predictions and G-cause the target variable.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) describes computer systems able to perform tasks that normally require human intelligence, such as visual perception, speech recognition, decision-making, and language translation. Examples of AI techniques are machine learning, neural networks and deep learning. AI can be applied in many different areas, such as econometrics, biometry, e-commerce and the automotive industry. In recent years, AI has found its way into healthcare as well, helping doctors to make better decisions (‘clinical decision support’), localizing tumors in magnetic resonance images, reading and analyzing reports written by radiologists and pathologists, and much more. However, AI has one big risk: it can be perceived as a ‘black box’, limiting trust in its reliability, which is a very big issue in an area in which a decision can mean life or death. As a result, the term Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) has been gaining momentum. XAI tries to ensure that AI algorithms (and the resulting decisions) can be understood by humans. In this narrative review, we will have a look at the current status of XAI in healthcare, describe several issues around XAI, and discuss whether it can really help healthcare to advance, for example by increasing understanding and trust. Finally, alternatives to increase trust in AI are discussed, as well as future research possibilities in the area of XAI.

Building electric energy is characterized by a significant increase of its uses (e.g. vehicle charging), a rapidly declining cost of all related data collection and a proliferation of smart grid concepts, including diverse and flexible electricity pricing schemes. Not surprisingly, an increased number of approaches have been proposed for its modeling and forecasting. In this work, we place our emphasis on three forecasting related issues. First, on the forecasting explainability, i.e. the ability to understand and explain to the user what shapes the forecast. To this extent we rely on concepts and approaches that are inherently explainable, such as the evolutionary approach of genetic programming (GP) and its associated symbolic expressions, as well as the so-called SHAP (SHapley Additive eXplanations) values, which is a well established model agnostic approach for explainability, especially in terms of feature importance. Second, we investigate the impact of the training timeframe on the forecasting accuracy; this is driven by the realization that a fast training would allow for faster deployment of forecasting in real life solutions. And third, we explore the concept of counterfactual analysis on actionable features, i.e. features that the user can really act upon and which therefore present an inherent advantage when it comes to decision support. We have found that SHAP values can provide important insights into the model explainability. As for GP models, we have found comparable and in some cases superior accuracy when compared to its neural-network and time-series counterparts but a rather questionable potential to produce crisp and insightful symbolic expressions, allowing a better insight into the model performance. We have also found, and report here on an important potential especially for practical, decision support, solutions of counterfactuals built on actionable features and short training timeframes.