ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201712.0122.v1
Subject: Engineering, Energy And Fuel Technology Keywords: biofuels; greenhouse gas; ghg; abatement cost; modelling; competition
Online: 18 December 2017 (11:47:05 CET)
Transport biofuels derived from biogenic material are used for substituting fossil fuels, thereby abating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Numerous competing conversion options exist to produce biofuels, with differing GHG emissions and costs. In this paper analysis and modelling of the long-term development of GHG abatement and relative GHG abatement cost competitiveness between crop-based biofuels in Germany is carried out. Presently dominant conventional biofuels and advanced liquid biofuels were found not to be competitive compared to the substantially higher yielding options available: sugar beet based ethanol for the short to medium term least-cost option and Substitute Natural Gas (SNG) for the medium to long term. The competitiveness of SNG was found to depend highly on the emissions development of the power mix. Silage maize based biomethane was found competitive on a land area basis, but not on an energetic basis. Due to land limitations as well as cost and GHG uncertainty, a stronger focus on the land use of crop-based biofuels should be laid in policy.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0098.v1
Subject: Engineering, Energy And Fuel Technology Keywords: heat sector; bioenergy; optimization; consumer choice; investment behavior
Online: 6 July 2020 (09:01:38 CEST)
Energy system optimization models (ESOM) are widely used to inform about energy transition strategies. The heterogeneity of consumers, especially in the heat sector, is rarely considered in these model types. Integrating consumer heterogeneity and behavioral factors into ESOMs may generate new insights for energy policy. In this study a literature review was conducted, identifying empirical data on consumer behavior for adopting residential heating systems. This data was integrated into an ESOM for the German heat sector, combining established methods for integrating consumer heterogeneity and a novel approach for calculating indirect costs, representing behavioral factors. The incorporation of consumer choice leads to a higher diversity in technology market shares in a business as usual and an ambitious measures scenario. Especially, the future role of log wood technologies in the private household sector may have been underestimated in previous studies and should be discussed, when designing policies. Still, these findings need to be handled with care, since the empirical data basis and the methodological basis is limited.