The initial outbreak of COVID-19 was first reported in Wuhan (China) during the latter part of December 2019. Indonesia has the fourth-largest population globally and reported the country’s first case of the virus on 2nd March 2020. The World Health Organisation (WHO) in addition to several neighbouring provinces and educational institutions within the region began questioning the Indonesian government upon the initial case reported. The objective of this study was to describe the epidemiological characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreak in Indonesia during March 2020. The data were collected from Indonesian government databases and non-government organisations (NGOs). The data were analysed using Microsoft Office 2019 (Excel) and Adobe Illustrator 2017 software, was used in drawing the map depicting the distribution of COVID-19 in Indonesia. As at 31st March 2020, a total of 1,528 people in Indonesia have been infected by COVID-19, in addition to 136 mortalities (CFR of 8.9%). Jakarta, as the principal capital of Indonesia, quickly has become the epicentre of the virus since this period. Most patient cases were attributed to those aged between 31 and 70 years (72.64%), with male patients (64.93%) representing the highest incidence of cases compared to female patients (35.07%). The number of ventilating machines was 3,326, with hospital numbers at 859. The distribution of cases depicting COVID-19 was mainly seen in urban areas compared to rural areas. Males compared to females, are at a higher risk of contracting COVID-19, including those aged below 30, between 30 and 60 or above. Indonesia also has the highest case fatality rate (CFR) with respect to mortalities in Southeast Asia and has the second-highest CFR globally. Similarly, while the number of ventilator machines as at 31st March 2020 were sufficient in meeting the growing number of COVID-19 cases in the country, it is possible that the government may need to increase the number of ventilators if the cases continue to escalate.

We studied the weekly number and the growth/decline rates of COVID-19 deaths in the period October 31, 2022 – February 9, 2023, in Italy, finding that that COVID-19 winter wave reached its peak during the three holyday weeks extending from December 16, 2022 to January 5, 2023, and it was definitely trending downward, returning to the same number of deaths of the end of October 2022, in the week February 3 – 9, 2023. During this period of fifteen weeks, that wave caused a number of deaths as large as 8,526. Its average growth rate was +7.89% deaths per week (ten weeks), while the average weekly decline rate was -12.32% (five weeks). Currently, Italy is experiencing a new COVID-19 wave, with the latest six weekly bulletins (October 26, 2023 – December 14, 2023) showing that the deaths have climbed from 148 to 322. The weekly growth rate has risen by +14.08% deaths, on average. In the hypothesis that this 2023-2024 wave have a duration similar to that of 2022-2023, with: i) a comparable extension of both the growing period and of the decline period and ii) similar growth/decline rates, a prediction can be cast regarding the number of COVID-19 deaths in the period November 2023 - January 2024. They could reach the amount of 4100-4200

The developments of confirmed daily Sars-CoV-2 infections can be modeled a posteriori in a comparatively simple and satisfactory way by means of a special exponential function: its exponential coefficient varies exponentially with time itself. This property enables the function to directly simulate the „daily case“ curve fragments observed for the first waves of the current epidemics in a number of counties and countries. Linear combinations of two or more of the functions allow for the modeling of the complete curves observed in the vast majority of all regions for which case number developments have been tabulated.

During a sanitary crisis, excess mortality measures the number of all-cause deaths, beyond what we would have expected if that crisis had not occurred. The high number of COVID-19 deaths started a debate in Italy with two opposite positions: those convinced that COVID-19 deaths were not, by default, excess deaths, because many COVID-19 deaths were not correctly registered, with the most part attributable to other causes and to the overall crisis conditions, and those who presented the opposite hypothesis. We analyzed the curve of the all-cause excess mortality, during the period January 5, 2020 – August 28, 2022, compared to the curve of the daily confirmed COVID-19 deaths, investigating the association between excess mortality and the recurrence of COVID-19 waves in Italy. We compared the two curves looking for the corresponding highest peaks and we found that 5 out of the 6 highest peaks (83.3%) of the excess mortality curve have occurred, on average, just a week before the concomitant COVID-19 waves hit their highest peaks of daily deaths (Mean 6.4 days; SD 2.4 days). This temporal correspondence between the moments when the excess mortality peaked and the highest peaks of the COVID-19 deaths provides further evidence that the all-cause excess mortality wave has been mostly driven by COVID-19 deaths