ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202010.0479.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: climate change; adaptation options; raking system; applicability level
Online: 23 October 2020 (10:26:10 CEST)
Failure to adapt to climate change is currently considered one of the major threats affecting humanity. Hence, much effort is being put into discussing adaptation approaches. While many adaptation options have been identified, the academic literature does not present a simple process that local councils and community members can use to rank adaptation options. In this context, community members participating on planning processes are presented with many adaptation options, but with no objective approach for selection, which adds challenge to the planning process. With the objective of addressing this issue, this work proposes a simple equation that allows calculating the applicability level of adaptation options. Results can then be plotted into graphs that allow correlating adaptation options and applicability level, which can be easily understood by community members. To develop such equation, this work built on existing sophisticated models from where the indicators used on the equation were identified, as well as the relationship between them. A scale was proposed to help on identifying adaptation options that should be implemented on the short, medium and long term, and options that should only be implemented if the circumstance change.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202209.0224.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Accounting And Taxation Keywords: Climate change; contract farming; coping; adaptation strategies; Zimbabwe
Online: 15 September 2022 (08:27:58 CEST)
The literature on contract farming and climate change in Zimbabwe has blind spots in relation to the study of contract farming as a climate change response. While the literature on contract farming and climate change abounds, such literature is lacking when it comes to the exploration of how contract farming can facilitate climate change coping and adaptation strategies by smallholder farmers. This paper fills this gap. It draws on in-depth interviews with 10 contracted and 10 non-contract farmers who were engaged through face-to-face in-depth interviews in the Chipinge South Constituency. It found that contract farming does not only boost productivity, but it also enables farmers to positively respond to the ravages of climate change, and therefore, it should be supported and encouraged. Future research should explore more viable and sustainable way through which the state, instead of private sector actors, should be at the centre of contract farming.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202303.0329.v1
Subject: Engineering, Other Keywords: Climate Change; Agriculture; Myanmar; Adaptation Measures; Resilience
Online: 20 March 2023 (01:18:37 CET)
The agricultural sector provides employment and income to the majority of Myanmar's population. The sector, however, is extremely susceptible to severe weather, rising temperatures, and changes in precipitation. This paper aims to analyze how vulnerable Myanmar's agricultural sector is to climate change and highlights the key sectors that are most at risk. This report also examines historical climate information, and the anticipated effects of climate change on Myanmar's agricultural sectors. In-depth literature reviews and summaries of Myanmar's climate change adaptation efforts are included in the report, along with recom-mendations for targeted, locally appropriate actions to strengthen the country's agricultural sector's resilience. Additionally, the study reviews Myanmar's in-stitutional framework for climate action and government priorities for adaptation measures, emphasizes the urgent need for climate action in Myanmar's agricul-ture sectors and calls for more research and development efforts on the effects of climate change on rural livelihoods and agriculture.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.1031.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Ecology Keywords: Agroforestry; Climate-Smart Agriculture; Climate Change Adaptation; Australia; Pacific Island Countries; Climate Variables; Crop Production; Sustainability
Online: 17 October 2023 (09:37:21 CEST)
This academic paper explores the synergistic potential of Agroforestry systems and Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) in enhancing climate change adaptation strategies. Focusing on Australia and Pacific Island Countries, the study delves into the pivotal role of these approaches in mitigating the impacts of changing climate variables on agricultural production. By analysing important climate variables, their potential alterations, and their subsequent effects on crop production, the paper advocates for a holistic and forward-thinking approach to sustainable agriculture in the face of climate change.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202102.0321.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Aquatic Science Keywords: Sundarbans; Fisheries; Natural disasters; Occupational changes; Climate change
Online: 16 February 2021 (13:20:45 CET)
The climate of Bangladesh has changed drastically which may put considerable adverse impacts on mangrove fishers but very few studies focused on this professional group. An attempt was made to perceive the impact and adaptation measures of the Sundarbans mangrove resource users, employing interviews and focus group discussions. A total of 150 respondents were randomly selected from the Sundarbans west under Shyamnagar Upazila of Satkhira District. It was revealed that the abundance of fishes, fuel woods, honey, golpata (Nypa fruticans), and shrimp post-larvae (PL) was reduced considerably. The resource users have adapted themselves by changing their occupation and becoming jobless and depending on the other family members. PL collection, honey collection, shrimp culture, and wood collection were found professional adapting strategies to adopt cyclone, flood, salinity intrusion, river erosion, and drought. Several recommendations are elicited, the implementation of which is important to ensure livelihood sustainability of the mangrove communities.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201807.0068.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: cultural heritage; preventative conservation; climate change; mitigation; adaptation; climate modelling
Online: 4 July 2018 (10:36:51 CEST)
There is a range of local weather and climate-related factors that contribute to the degradation of cultural heritage buildings, structures and sites over time. Some of these factors are influenced by changes in climate and some of these changes manifest themselves though a speeding up of the rate of degradation. It is the intention of this paper to review this situation with special reference to the Nordic Countries, where typical trends resulting from climate change are shorter winters and increased precipitation all year round. An attempt is made to initially draw up a classification of materials and structures relevant to cultural heritage that are affected, with a proposed numeric scale for the urgency to act. The intention is to provide information on where best to concentrate cultural heritage site preservation resources in the future.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201705.0220.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: climate change; adaptation; WaSH; policy; sustainability; development
Online: 31 May 2017 (11:44:04 CEST)
Climate change threatens water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) facilities and services, as these are intimately linked to the water cycle and are vulnerable to changes in the quantity and quality of available water resources. Floods and droughts, which pollute and reduce water delivery respectively, have now become a perennial issue to deal with in the northern regions of the country, including the Bolgatanga Municipality. This study aimed to assess the degree to which climate change adaptation measures are mainstreamed into the WaSH development planning process in Ghana. Stakeholders from government and non-government agencies were interviewed to gain perspectives on the threat of climate change, the inclusion of climate change in WaSH planning and the barriers preventing mainstreaming. In general, despite awareness and concern about climate change, adaptation measures have been regarded to be far away from the immediate concerns of WaSH development planning. Most of the current measures are reactive and respond to environmental issues rather than to climate change stressors. In essence, stakeholders expressed the view that the adaptive capacity of the Municipality was low and that mainstreaming has not yet occurred. Despite the lack of progress, there are great opportunities for mainstreaming climate change adaptation into planning through increasing awareness and capacity, legislative and institutional changes and the development of participatory systems to provide early warning systems and disaster risk analyses that will inform future planning.
ARTICLE | doi:10.3390/sci1030057
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: adaptation; perception; climate change; Nepal; multivariate probit
Online: 20 September 2019 (00:00:00 CEST)
This study assessed farmers’ perception of climate change, estimated the determinants of, and evaluated the relationship among adaptation practices using the multivariate probit model. A survey in 300 agricultural households was carried out covering 10 sample districts considering five agro-ecological zones and a vulnerability index. Four adaptation choices (change in planting date, crop variety, crop type and investment in irrigation) were deemed as outcome variables and socioeconomic, demographic, institutional, farm-level and perceptions variables were deployed as explanatory variables. Their marginal effects were determined for three climatic variables—temperature, precipitation and drought. Age, gender and education of head of household, credit access, farm area, rain-fed farming and tenure, are found to be more influential compared to other factors. All four adaptation-options are found to be complimentary to each other. Importantly, the intensity of impact of dependent variables in different models, and for available adaptation-options, are found to be unequal. Therefore, policy options and support facilities should be devised according to climatic variables and adaptation options to achieve superior results.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202110.0336.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior And Systematics Keywords: nature-based solutions; climate change adaptation; biodiversity; ecosystem-based adaptation
Online: 23 October 2021 (14:19:30 CEST)
Nature-based solutions (NbS) are increasingly recognised for their potential to address both the climate and biodiversity crises. These outcomes are interdependent, and both rely on the capacity of NbS to support and enhance the health of an ecosystem: its biodiversity, the condition of its abiotic and biotic elements, and its capacity to function normally despite environmental change. However, while understanding of ecosystem health outcomes of nature-based interventions for climate change mitigation is growing, the outcomes of those implemented for adaptation remain poorly understood with evidence scattered across multiple disciplines. To address this, we conducted a systematic review of the outcomes of 109 nature-based interventions for climate change adaptation using 33 indicators of ecosystem health across eight broad categories (e.g. diversity, biomass, ecosystem functioning and population dynamics). We showed that 88% of interventions with positive outcomes for climate change adaptation also reported measurable benefits for ecosystem health. We also showed that interventions were associated with a 67% average increase in local species richness. All eight studies that reported benefits in terms of both climate change mitigation and adaptation also supported ecosystem health, leading to a triple win. However, there were also trade-offs, mainly for forest management and creation of novel ecosystems such as monoculture plantations of non-native species. Our review highlights two major limitations of research to date. First, only a limited selection of metrics are used to assess ecosystem health and these rarely include key aspects such as functional diversity and habitat connectivity. Second, taxonomic coverage is poor: 67% of outcomes assessed only plants and 57% did not distinguish between native and non-native species. Future research addressing these issues will allow the design and adaptive management of NbS to support healthy and resilient ecosystems, and thereby enhance their effectiveness for meeting both climate and biodiversity targets.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.0114.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Public Health And Health Services Keywords: Climate change; vulnerability; adaptation; health vulnerability index, Mozambique
Online: 2 June 2023 (02:55:34 CEST)
Climate change (CC) poses severe consequences, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where poverty rates may escalate by 2050 without significant climate and development action. The health impacts are diverse, encompassing communicable and non-communicable diseases. Mozambique, a climate-vulnerable nation, has experienced significant natural disasters in the past 42 years, impacting its health system. This study aims to assess Mozambique’s health sector vulnerability and adaptation needs to climate change. Following a methodology proposed by the World Health Organization and Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change, a six-step vulnerability and adaptation assessment was conducted. The Health Vulnerability Index (HVI), integrating historical climate, epidemiological, and socio-economic data at the district level (n=162), was computed using exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity dimensions. The Results revealed spatial patterns in exposure to climate variables, extreme weather events, and variations in sensitivity and adaptive capacity across the country. The HVI mirrored the exposure findings. Notably, high vulnerability was observed in several districts, while major urban centers displayed lower vulnerability. These findings highlight the country’s vulnerability to climate change and underscore the potential for adverse impacts on livelihoods, the economy, and human health. The study provides a foundation for developing strategies and adaptation actions.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202210.0394.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Climate change adaptation; Coastal cities; Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA); Socio-economic assessment; Systematic literature review
Online: 26 October 2022 (03:33:30 CEST)
Coastal areas are highly vulnerable to climate change hazards (e.g., sea-level rise, flooding, coastal erosion), which can lead to significant impacts at the ecosystem and societal level. Interest in Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) is gaining importance due to its potential multiple benefits, including social and environmental aspects, when compared to more traditional approaches such as hard engineering interventions. When assessing EbA strategies, further understanding of the nature-society functions, processes, values, and benefits is needed to increase its application. This study contributes to a better knowledge of EbA by developing a systematic literature review of studies performing socio-economic assessments of climate change adaptation in coastal areas. The analysis of 54 publications revealed that most of the studies assessed adaptation solutions through cost-benefit analysis, followed by multi-criteria analysis, and other techniques. Hybrid adaptation strategies based on different combinations of hard, soft and EbA interventions were considered as potential optimal solutions in a significant part of the assessments. This study suggests the potential co-benefits of EbA in the form of ecosystem services, livelihood diversification or biodiversity conservation, but also stresses the need for further research on this topic, as well as on evaluating how EbA perform in the long-term under climate changing conditions scenarios.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201903.0143.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: perceived-impact of climate change; climate change adaptation; ordered probit regression; determinants of climate change impact
Online: 13 March 2019 (09:31:37 CET)
This paper identifies the characteristics of the farmer that affect the degree of farmer’s perceived-impact of climate change (CC). We use data from the Indonesian Rice Farm Household survey consisting of 87,330 farmers. An ordered probit regression model was used to estimate the effect of each variable on the degree of perceived-impact of CC. The results of this study confirm the previous empirical studies. Several variables that have been identified as having a positive effect on farmer adaptation practices such as farmer education, land tenure, irrigation infrastructure, cropping system, chemical fertilizer application, access to extension services and participation in farmer group affect the degree of CC perceived-impact negatively. However, a different result was found in the estimation of the gender variable. We found that female farmer has a higher resilience toward CC than the male farmer does. Furthermore, the female farmer has a more positive perception about future farming conditions than the male does. Finally, we suggest that the implementation of national adaptation policy should prioritize more to the farmer with insecure land tenure and utilize and expand the channel of agricultural extension services to deliver the planned adaptation policy.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201612.0037.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: climate change; evapotranspiration; IHACRES model; rainfall; runoff; quantile mapping
Online: 7 December 2016 (11:14:14 CET)
Climate simulations in West Africa have been attributed with large uncertainties. Global climate projections are not consistent with changes in observations at the regional or local level of the Niger basin, making management of hydrological projects in the basin uncertain. This study evaluates the potential of using the quantile mapping bias correction to improve the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) outputs for use in hydrology impact studies. Rainfall and temperature projections from 8 CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCM) were bias corrected using the quantile mapping approach. Impacts of climate change was evaluated with bias corrected rainfall, temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET). The IHACRES hydrological model was adapted to the Niger basin and used to simulate impacts of climate change on discharge under present and future conditions. Bias correction significantly improved the accuracy of rainfall and temperature simulations compared to observations. Nash coefficient (NSE) for monthly rainfall comparisons of 8 GCMs to the observed was improved by bias correction from 0.69 to 0.84. The standard deviations among the 8 GCM rainfall data were significantly reduced from 0.13 to 0.03. Increasing rainfall, temperature, PET and river discharge were projected for all GCMs used in this study under the RCP8.5 scenario. These results will help improving projections and contribute to the development of sustainable climate change adaptation strategies.
CONCEPT PAPER | doi:10.20944/preprints201612.0043.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: climate change; climatic water balance; irrigation; natural snow cover; the DAS indicator project; Saxony-Anhalt; soil moisture content
Online: 7 December 2016 (11:30:40 CET)
Implementation of the German Climate change Strategy in the Federal State of Saxony-Anhalt is discussed in this paper. It shares the requirement and importance of sustainable development. An overview of strategy, The DAS Indicator System is provided with results of a portion of work being done for the ministry of agriculture by Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD). Applicability of the indicator system is also shown by evaluation of results for specific indicators from 1961-2015.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202211.0429.v2
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: Digital Twin; hazard; vulnerability; resilience; adaptive climate adaptation; groundwater; DK-model HIP
Online: 24 November 2022 (02:47:00 CET)
The paper analyses the national DK-model Hydrological Information and Prediction (HIP) system and HIP portal viewed as a ‘Digital Twin’ and how the introduction of real-time dynamic updating of the DK-model HIP simulations can give room for plug-in sub-models with real-time boundary conditions made available from a HIP portal. The possible feedback to a national real-time risk knowledge base during extreme events (flooding and drought) is also discussed. Under climate change conditions, Denmark is likely to experience more rain in winter, more evapotranspiration in summer, intensified cloudbursts, drought, and sea level rise. These challenges have been addressed as part of the Joint Governmental Digitalization Strategy 2016-2020 for better use and sharing of public data about the terrain, water, and climate to support climate adaptation, water management, and disaster risk reduction. This initiative included the development of a new web-based data portal (HIP portal) developed by the Danish Agency for Data Supply and Infrastructure (SDFI). GEUS delivered 5 terra-byte of hydrological model data to the portal with robust calibration methods and hybrid Machine Learning (ML) being key parts of the deliverables. The paper discusses the challenges and potentials of further developing the HIP Digital Twin with ‘plug-in Digital Twins’ for local river basins including feedback to the national level.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202105.0500.v1
Subject: Engineering, Automotive Engineering Keywords: Urban Development Plans; Climate Change; Adaptation and Mitigation Policies; Tehran Metropolis
Online: 21 May 2021 (07:53:50 CEST)
Climate change has emerged as one of the defining issues of the early 21st century. It is now more certain than ever and poses a serious threat to sustainable urban development. Climate change has many destructive effects on cities. Land subsidence, rising air pollutants, severe storms, dust and water scarcity are just some effects of this phenomenon in the urban area of Tehran. Urban management must be prepared to deal with these effects and adopt policies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. One of these tools in urban planning is urban development plans. The plans can have a great impact on controlling and counteracting with the effects of climate change. In this research, using content analysis method, 6 dimensions and 31 indicators have been used to evaluate 8 city and region development plans of Tehran from the view of reflecting the effects of climate change. Indicators were scored after studying the content of the plans. Findings indicate that among the reviewed plans, the second and third five-year development plans of Tehran with 61.9% and 61.3% as the highest rate and plan to reduce air pollution in Tehran and the transportation master plan with 20.6% and 23.2%, respectively have the least attention to the effects of climate change. Also, among the indicators, the urban transportation sector with 54.3% as the highest and the energy sector with 20.5% have the least attention to mitigation and adaptation policies.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202105.0475.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: Climate change, vulnerable women, perception, adaptation, Bangladesh, high flood
Online: 20 May 2021 (10:23:39 CEST)
The contextual and risk perception of climate change plays a critical role in an individual’s decision-making process. It could also help people to respond appropriately to the consequences of global climate change and eventually take necessary adaptation actions. However, the perceptions of climate change are often gendered and vary among men and women. Therefore, this study explores different perceptions of climate change and its local adaptation options among ultra-poor vulnerable women, particularly in highly vulnerable flood-prone regions of Bangladesh. The research followed an empirical research methodology to collect primary and secondary information using qualitative and quantitative research tools. The study findings reveal that climate change perceptions at the individual level are relatively low (63%). Still, they have been observing significant changes in various climatic variables over the past 30 years. Moreover, this study identified some major adaptation options such as plinth raising (100%), livestock rearing (100%), homestead gardening (82%), seasonal migration (82%), and using indigenous knowledge (69%), and so on to tackle the adverse impacts of climate change-induced extreme events including flooding at the local level. For implementing these adaptation measures, the respondents spent a significant amount of financial resources from individual sources in the study area. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) is used in addition to the statistical analyses to understand any connections between the climate change perceptions and other variables associated with the community under study. The SEM result shows that climate change will be a long–term problem, which offers a strong predictor in this model, considering standardized regression weight β= 0.56. It means, despite inadequate knowledge on climate change of the respondent’s, climate change is occurring and becoming the worst factor limiting cultural, economic, and environmental development in the study area.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.0243.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: green growth; green technology; technology diffusion; climate change adaptation; sustainable development; panel data
Online: 4 May 2023 (09:03:36 CEST)
This study aims to investigate the influence of various economic, environmental, and social factors on sustainable development, with a specific focus on the impact of green technology and climate change adaptation. A panel dataset comprising 38 OECD member countries from 1990 to 2020 is employed, and a series of dynamic panel data models are estimated using the system generalized method of moments (GMM) approach. Numerous covariates, such as globalization, socio-economic conditions, economic and political values, climate and technological progress, and environmental determinants, are examined. The empirical findings highlight the significant role played by macroeconomic, institutional, social, and government policy-related factors in sustainable development. More importantly, our results provide novel and robust evidence that the diffusion of green technology and climate change adaptation positively affect green growth. The study's empirical outcomes are demonstrated to be robust to misspecification errors and statistically significant at traditional significance levels. These findings carry substantial policy implications for the development and implementation of strategies that promote climate change adaptation and green innovation. Consequently, policymakers should prioritize the integration of green technology and adaptive measures in their sustainable development agendas to foster a greener, more resilient future.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201805.0046.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Behavior Sciences Keywords: women’s empowerment; climate change adaptation; India; transnational advocacy networks
Online: 2 May 2018 (13:27:14 CEST)
1). As on-the-ground projects come into existence and continue to expand to adapt to climate change and empower women, it is important to understand their location within TANs. Using the Bhungroo technology as a case study, we aim to assess the potential of TANs to increase the scope and scale of local projects as well as the ability of similar and emerging projects to create social change at local levels. 2). We do so by analyzing interview and earned media hits data from the UNFCCC Momentum for Change. 3). We find that while TANs may help increase the scale and scope of projects, increasing their ability to effectively reach more people and areas is still up for debate 4). We conclude by considering how women’s political participation may be enhanced by similar projects.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201910.0289.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Ecology Keywords: adaptation failure; adaptation planning; economic interests; climate change; ecosystem spillovers; policy; risk perception; transformation
Online: 27 October 2019 (02:54:10 CET)
The failure to acknowledge and account for environmental externalities or spillovers in climate change adaptation policy, advocacy and programming spaces exercabates the risk of ecological degradation, more so, degradation of land. In particular use of unsuitable water sources for irrigation may increase salinisation risks. However, little if any policy assessments and research effort has been directed at investigating how farmer perceptions mediate spillovers from the ubiquitous irrigation adaptation strategy. In this study cognitive failure and/or bias construct is examined and proposed as an analytical lens in research, policy and learning and the convergence of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation discourses. The findings from small-scale farmers, Machakos and Kakamega counties, Kenya, suggest multifaceted biases and failures about the existence and importance of externalities in adaptation planning discourses. Among other dimensions, cognitive failure which encompasses fragmented approaches among institutions for use and management of resources, inadequate policy and information support, as well as, poor integration of actors in adaptation planning accounts for adaptation failure. The failures in such Human-Environment system interactions have the potential to exercabate existing vulnerability of farmer production systems in the long run. The findings further suggest that in absence of risk message information dissemination, education level, farming experience and information accumulation, as integral elements to human capital, do not seem to have significant effect on behaviour about mitigation of environmental spillovers. Implicitly, reversing the inherent adaptation failures calls for system approaches that enhance coordinated adaptation planning, prioritises proactive mitigation of slow onset disaster risks and broadens decision support systems, such as, risk information dissemination integration into the existing adaptation policy discourses and practice.
COMMUNICATION | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0481.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Accounting And Taxation Keywords: climate change; coastal adaptation; collective action
Online: 18 December 2020 (16:27:48 CET)
Not only are humans responsible for the anthropogenic causes of currently observed climate change, but we are also responsible for our responses to climate change. How we choose to respond provides important insights into our ability to collectively act in the face of threats with the unique characteristics of climate change. This communication attempts to provide an overview of some the difficulties in forging new policy directions along our coastlines in an era of climate change. It is meant as a referential framing for the research presented in this special issue. As this communication is being written, the world is gripped by a global pandemic caused by a variant of the coronavirus. There are important corollaries between the underlying characteristics of the coronavirus and the causes and effects of climate change. Seeing how the global citizenry is responding to the current epidemic provides some insight into the difficulties in fostering collective action towards climate change. As with the pandemic, the issue is not really one of understanding the problem, but rather the varying human responses to the problem. We can expect the same difficulties as we continue to confront the ever-growing problem of climate change.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201701.0092.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: climate adaptation; flexibility; flood risk management; urban adaptation
Online: 20 January 2017 (04:25:55 CET)
Adaptation to climate change is being addressed in many domains. This means that there are multiple perspectives on adaptation; often with differing visions resulting in disconnected responses and outcomes. Combining singular perspectives into coherent, combined perspectives that include multiple needs and visions can help to deepen the understanding of various aspects of adaptation and provide more effective responses. Such combinations of perspectives can help to increase the range and variety of adaptation measures available for implementation or avoid maladaptation compared with adaptations derived from a singular perspective. The objective of this paper is to present and demonstrate a framework for structuring the local adaptation responses using the inputs from multiple perspectives. The adaptation response framing has been done by: (i) contextualizing climate change adaptation needs; (ii) analyzing drivers of change; (iii) characterizing measures of adaptation; and (iv) establishing links between the measures with a particular emphasis on taking account of multiple perspectives. This framework was demonstrated with reference to the management of flood risks in a case study Can Tho, Vietnam. The results from the case study show that multiple perspective framing of adaptation responses enhance the understanding of various aspects of adaptation measures, thereby leading to flexible implementation practices.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202304.0487.v2
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: drought; shock; agro-climate; agriculture; precipitation
Online: 16 October 2023 (10:55:23 CEST)
Both globally and in Hungary, agriculture is one of the industries that is most vulnerable to weather and climate extremes. Intense temperature rises, spatial and temporal variations in precipitation, and significant changes in extreme climatological and weather parameters have contributed to changes in the conditions of cropland, crop losses, and impacts on crop quality in recent years. This paper depicts the transformation of the domestic agricultural sector due to the extreme drought shock of 2022, as well exploring the adaptation strategies applied. The research is based on official agro-climate database and crop data, and the temperature, precipitation, and radiation during the growing season are all examined. The agro-meteorological properties in Hungary had to be investigated for the entire year and all four of its seasons, with indicator analysis projected onto the ever-increasing and dormant seasons. Long-term climate analysis is necessary to understand the historic drought of 2022 and the success of future adaptation and mitigation techniques. The results can help smallholders effectively reduce the adverse impacts of drought conditions, thereby increasing their adaptation to similar shocks.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202102.0180.v2
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: climate; climate change; water; hydrology; climatology.
Online: 3 March 2021 (10:12:40 CET)
We revisit the notion of climate, along with its historical evolution, tracing the origin of the modern concerns about climate. The notion (and the scientific term) of climate has been established during the Greek antiquity in a geographical context and it acquired its statistical content (average weather) in modern times, after meteorological measurements had become common. Yet the modern definitions of climate are seriously affected by the wrong perception of the previous two centuries that climate should regularly be constant, unless an external agent acted. Therefore, we attempt to give a more rigorous definition of climate, consistent with the modern body of stochastics. We illustrate the definition by real-world data, which also exemplify the large climatic variability. Given this variability, the term “climate change” turns out to be scientifically unjustified. Specifically, it is a pleonasm as climate, like weather, has been ever changing. Indeed, a historical investigation reveals that the aim in using that term is not scientific but political. Within the political aims, water issues have been greatly promoted by projecting future catastrophes while reversing the true roles and causality directions. For this reason, we provide arguments that water is the main element that drives climate and not the opposite.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202304.0579.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Transportation Keywords: Sustainability; Transportation; Climate Change; Carbon Emissions
Online: 19 April 2023 (08:59:55 CEST)
The build-up of greenhouse gases (GHGs) is causing warmness in the Earth’s atmosphere, resulting in climate change. The transport sector is one of the active members of GHG emissions and it is imperative to use sustainable transport sources to control climate change. The measure aims to encourage citizens to stop using their private vehicles as their choice of transport and instead opt for joint sustainable mobility during traveling. In this study, a quantitative research method was used and data were collected from a sample of 410 respondents through questionnaire. On the other hand, study also took a simulation-based (N=10000) sample size of private vehicle data. The data were analyzed using structural equation modelling. The results revealed that sustainable transportation, climate change technologies and electric rail vehicles reduce climate change in the ecoregions of China. We conclude that sustainable transportation policies could be formulated and implemented to reduce climate change. In response to the research results, it is recommended that, since climate change is a multi-level governance issue and the outdated pyramidal transport industry models must be shifted to a sustainable transportation system model.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202211.0021.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: children; climate change; climate literacy; education; sustainable development
Online: 1 November 2022 (06:59:44 CET)
Despite the impact that climate change is having on our planet and considering its consequences for future generations, much of the academic literature focuses on adolescent and adult percep-tions, giving little relevance to children's perceptions. Children's voices have the potential to in-fluence public opinion, which may in turn determine the direction of a new policy on the cli-mate crisis. In this context, it is urgent that we understand how children perceive this problem. This quantitative study was based on the application of 245 questionnaires to children aged be-tween 9 and 13 years old from five schools in north-eastern Portugal, more specifically in the region of Trás-os-Montes. To collect the data, we used a questionnaire with 26 questions, being 24 of closed response, Likert type, one of them open response, and one multiple choices. The da-ta were statistically treated using SPSS software. The results show that most of the children ex-press concern about the study's potential problem. However, they show some doubts and a lack of knowledge about some of the themes. We found differences between the two study cycles, with children in the 6th grade having a higher average in the understanding of the phenomenon, as well as the level of education of the parents being positively correlated with a more ecocen-tric posture. The female students also showed a slightly more ecological posture, i.e., an eco-friendlier posture. From the results obtained, we can open new paths for future research and contribute to the definition of policies and educational practices since the school has the respon-sibility to cooperate in the production of values, attitudes, and pro-environmental behaviours.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202211.0301.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: students’ awareness; climate change; climate information; mitigation activities; Democratic Re-public of Congo
Online: 16 November 2022 (08:58:25 CET)
Students are often portrayed as future leaders. Their participation in climate change mitigation would improve when they access climate information and gain a high level of climate change awareness. This study was initiated to assess the Congolese students’ awareness of climate change by focusing on their sources of information on climate change, knowledge about the causes and impacts of climate change and activities that can raise awareness on climate change. Using a convenience sampling technique, we collected data through individual interviews conducted among 1,278 students from 13 universities across the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The interview results showed that all students irrespective of their disciplines were concerned about climate change, a phenomenon strongly driven by human activities, such as deforestation (78%), urbanisation (30%), agriculture activities (30%) and transport services (26%). The students’ perceptions of climate change impacts included increase in temperature (82%), decrease in the number of rainy days (66%), proliferation of pests (60%) and increase in the number of malaria patients (39%). The primary sources of information that significantly affected students’ awareness of climate change included environment-related university courses and television broadcasts. The awareness-raising and mitigation actions related to climate change recommended by the students included educating people about good waste management (56%), planting trees (65%) and using the taxes paid by mining companies for the restoration of degraded ecosystems. The students believed that in DRC, all layers of the society (educational institutions, civil society organisations, community members and businesses) are important in building resilience to climate change. This study can guide teachers to focus their educational efforts on shaping pro-environmental behaviour in students.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.0332.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: Adaptation; Climate change; Coastal hazards; Coastal ecosystems; Vulnerability
Online: 6 October 2023 (11:52:52 CEST)
Coastal ecosystems provide a wide range of goods and services for the lives of human beings and aquatic species. Nevertheless, climate-induced extreme events cause unprecedented impacts on these areas, instigating a reduction of aquatic goods and services, destruction of infrastructure, and loss of human lives. Hence, this review investigated the impacts of climate-induced coastal hazards and adaptation responses. A systematic review method was used to address the objectives of this literature review. The main data sources were Research Gate, Google Scholar, Scopus, Web of Science, and PubMed databases. A total of 40 research articles (2012-2023) were selected using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA 2020) methodology. The findings of this review revealed that Bangladesh was the leading country based on the number of studies published on the impacts of climate-induced coastal hazards and coastal adaptations (20%), followed by the USA, which accounts for about 15%. Sea-level rise, coastal flooding, and climate change and variability were the most studied climate-induced coastal hazards, each accounting for 55%, 52.5% and 52.5% respectively. Coastal hazards have had significant impacts on the fishery, water, coastal ecosystems and biodiversity, agriculture, tourism, and infrastructure sectors. Besides, they caused migration and death of humans and animals. About 35% of the articles explored the assessment of vulnerability to climate-induced hazards. Moreover, 32.5% of the articles investigated anticipated climate-induced hazards. Hard, soft, ecosystem-based, and hybrid adaptation measures were used to adapt to the impacts of diverse climate-induced coastal hazards. In conclusion, developing countries are more vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate-induced coastal hazards than developed countries. The coastal area’s vulnerability to climate change risks will continue unless all stakeholders act proactively. Thus, it is suggested that the adaptation policies of vulnerable coastal areas should give due attention to nature-based solutions to reduce the adverse impacts of coastal hazards sustainably.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0047.v1
Online: 2 August 2022 (08:04:43 CEST)
The paper will analyze the pressures and vulnerabilities of the consolidated city from two perspectives: technical and social. Some design and pragmatic experiences conducted by the author in his teaching and research experience first at the Department of Urbanism of TUDelft in the Netherlands and currently at the PDTA Department of La Sapienza University of Rome will be introduced and analyzed. In the first research activity, whose case study is Rotterdam, all urban vulnerabilities related to climate change will be analyzed while in the second one, conducted in Viterbo, the vulnerability related to the hull of social inclusion, poor accessibility and psycho-social stress that plague our established cities will be treated. The two areas of study, different in size and spatial governance tools, are comparable because they allow deciphering the city's risks through lines of intervention that could serve as best practices and serve the urban planning disciplinary update also allowing to define a reflection on morphology and fabrics and on the shape of the city itself. Both teaching and research activities in which the author is involved allow the topic of urban vulnerability to be addressed with a broad exploratory scope that, in the final stage, hypothesizes design intervention on the neighborhood scale, identified as the most appropriate to provide plausible climate and social adaptation and mitigation responses.
Subject: Social Sciences, Political Science Keywords: Climate change; rural-urban migration; innovation; Bangladesh; adaptation strategies; politicization of technology; Dhaka; urban climate solutions; informal settlements
Online: 29 October 2020 (09:14:33 CET)
Climate change-induced events amplify existing social, political, economic, infrastructural and environmental concerns in many Global South cities, and perhaps no city is more vulnerable than Bangladesh’s capital of Dhaka. Climate-induced rural-urban migration is a profound concern, and Dhaka’s political leaders have embraced technology-based innovation as a solution pathway. This article explores the societal impact of Dhaka’s innovation environment strategies for climate change adaptation and mitigation. Employing a case study qualitative methodology, our three findings expand knowledge about innovation-urban climate mitigation as understood by Dhaka-based entrepreneurs: First, the most effective innovations were not the most technologically advanced, but those with the highest degree of participant ownership. Second, gaps between recipient, corporate and governmental understandings of effective mitigation and adaptation harmed projects, and were driven by different definitions of risk and competing understandings of vulnerability. Third, even the most technical climate adaptation measures were inherently political in their application. We discuss how to better position urban climate innovation infrastructures in Bangladesh and beyond, including developing a better recognition of innovation lifecycles for urban climate adaptation and widening our definitions of ‘innovation’ to better incorporate more effective and inclusive climate adaptation solutions.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.2031.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Behavior Sciences Keywords: climate change anxiety; climate change despair; climate change hope; climate change perception; pro-environment behavior; political orientation
Online: 31 October 2023 (09:09:13 CET)
The main objective of this paper is to assess pro-environmental behavior, climate change perception, anxiety, hope and despair in different political orientations. Specific aims included to validate all the instruments; to assess whether the factor structure of the scales were valid across political orientations; to evaluate their reliability; to assess differences concerning age, gender and political orientation; to know the variables that explain pro-environment behavior; and to evaluate the moderating role of climate change perception, despair and hope in the relationship between climate change anxiety and pro-environmental behavior. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFAs), multi-group CFAs (to measurement invariance), multiple linear regressions and moderations were performed. Results showed that pro-environment behavior and climate change hope achieved the four levels of invariance across different political orientations; climate change anxiety achieved the three first levels of invariance; climate change perception and climate change despair achieved configural invariance. Climate change anxiety personal experience, climate change perception total, reality and consequences present higher values in left political orientation that in right or center. Climate change anxiety variables contribute most to explaining pro-environmental behaviors. Hope, despair and climate change perception consequences moderate de relationship between climate change anxiety and pro-environment behavior. These results open up new avenues of investigation, namely, to understand why high levels of anxiety lead to more pro-environment al behaviors.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202211.0008.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: migrations; climate change; Colombia
Online: 1 November 2022 (01:52:52 CET)
The international literature shows a polarised debate on the impacts of climate change on migration. Some studies find a positive linkage, whereas others find a negative one. It is, without a doubt, a complex process better considered case-specific. There is no available information on the relationship between climate change and migration in Colombia, despite past research exploring each of these subjects independently. This study intends explicitly to investigate this linkage gap. Consequently, this paper's essential contribution is that it builds a bridge between climate change scenarios and migratory science for the first time in Colombia. Despite their limitations, the theoretical and methodological framework suggested by IOM (2009b pp. 86, Section B, Chapter II) is demonstrated in this study to be very valid since it provides a methodology to predict where future flows will occur (based on past evidence). The methodological approaches of SLA and NELM explained in section A in the IV Chapter are also valuable for analysing and approaching this study's conclusions. The primary conclusions of this study indicate that the "Coffee Region," Valle, and Atlantic (or Caribbean Coast) provinces that mainly send emigrants to Spain and the US are the key internal regions responsible for most of the international migration from Colombians. The same areas are especially vulnerable to the impacts of upcoming climate change in the A1B scenario produced by the IDEAM (2010) for 2040 and 2100. Thus, future flows of migrants are expected from these regions (2040-2100). However, issues such as visa requirements or the costs associated with migration constitute international barriers to this flow. The sensitivity of these regions can also be associated with internal migration flows, more armed conflict, and forced displacement in a cyclical process. Theoretically, a resurgence of Colombia's armed conflict and displacement due to climate change can be expected. However, the need for empirical studies in Colombia to support this analysis is imperative and is the most crucial recommendation arising from this study.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.0297.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Horticulture Keywords: Climate change; stress factors; Vitis spp.; extreme climate events; sustainable agriculture
Online: 5 October 2023 (14:04:08 CEST)
Keywords: Climate change, stress factors, Vitis spp., extreme climate events, sustainable agriculture
HYPOTHESIS | doi:10.20944/preprints202304.1246.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior And Systematics Keywords: Climate change; Butterfly; Thimphu; Bhutan
Online: 30 April 2023 (03:18:31 CEST)
The study aims to investigate the impacts of climate change on butterfly populations Thimphu district of Bhutan. Butterflies are indicators of environmental factors and can act as an early warning of impending changes in local flora and fauna. The study will involve citizen science with participants using iNaturalist and Seek applications to capture butterfly data in various habitat areas in the Thimphu district. The data collected will be analyzed using Statistics Kit for Social Sciences (SPSS), Nvivo, and Geographical Information System (GIS) programs. The results of the research will be disseminated through awareness campaigns to increase public understanding of the value of butterfly protection in the conservation of healthy environments. The study's findings will be used to develop conservation initiatives to maintain biodiversity and assess the impacts of climate change.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202211.0257.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Geography, Planning And Development Keywords: climate change adaptation; adaptation plan; small municipality; France, United States; climate services; information
Online: 14 November 2022 (11:10:35 CET)
There is a growing consensus that to effectively adapt to climate change, cities need user-friendly tools and reliable high-resolution biophysical and socio-economic data for analysis, mapping, modeling, and visualization. This study examines availability of various types of information used in climate adaptation plans of 40 municipalities with population less than 300,000 people in the United and in France, probing into the choice and usage of relevant information by small municipalities. We argue that non-climatic spatial data, such as population demographic and socio-economic patterns, urban infrastructure, and environmental data must be integrated with climate tools and datasets to inform effective vulnerability assessment and equitable climate adaptation planning goals. Climate adaptation plans frequently fail to address the existing structural inequalities and environmental injustices in urban infrastructure and land use. Adaptation methodological approaches should be reassessed in the context of much needed societal transformation. Lessons learned from our studies offer valuable insights for potential development of the national and state-level climate adaptation information services for cities.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201706.0100.v2
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: biodiversity; climate change; climate refugia; forest conservation policies; forest conversion
Online: 3 August 2017 (06:11:35 CEST)
A scenario-based approach to the impacts of land use and climate change can help in identifying future policy directions. This study models the impacts of different land use and climate change scenarios on the forest ecosystems of South Korea to identify national-scale forest policy options. Climatically suitable forest areas for 1,031 climate vulnerable plant species were identified for current time and for 2050. We calculated change in species richness under four climate projections. We built forest conversion models and created four 2050 forest scenarios: (1) forest loss continues at current rates; (2) similar loss, but with conservation in areas with suitable future climates; (3) a reduction of loss by 50%; and (4) a combination of preservation and overall reduction of loss by 50%. We then crossed the forest conversion models with the climate-driven change in species richness, and categorized current forest areas into four classes to offer forest policy alternatives. By deploying the scenarios which preserve climatically suitable forests, the average species richness where forests converting to other land uses reduced significantly. We suggest conserving forests with suitable climates for biodiversity conservation and the establishment of forest plantations targeted to areas where species richness will decline based on our results.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201710.0029.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: Climate change; HBV; climate projection; Ethiopian highland
Online: 5 October 2017 (13:50:02 CEST)
This study assessed the impact of climate change on water availability and variability in two subbasins in the Upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia. Downscaled future climate data from HadCM3 of A2 (medium-high) and B2 (medium-low) emission scenarios were compared to the observed climate data for a baseline period (1961 to 1990). The emission scenario representing the baseline period was used to predict future climate and as input to a hydrologic model to estimate the impact of future climate on the streamflow at three future time horizons 2020 - 2045, 2045 - 2070 and 2070 - 2100. Results suggest that medium-high emission scenario best represents the local rainfall and temperature pattern. With A2 scenario, daily maximum/minimum temperature will increase throughout the future time horizons. The minimum and maximum temperature will increase by 3.6oC and 2.4oC, respectively, towards the end of the 21st century. Consequently, potential evapotranspiration is expected to increase by 7.8%, though trends in annual rainfall do not show statistically meaningful trends between years. A notable seasonality was found in the rainfall pattern such that dry season rainfall amounts are likely to increase and wet season rainfall to decrease. The hydrological model indicated that the local hydrology of the study watersheds will be significantly influenced by climate change. Overall, at the end of the century, streamflow will increase in both rivers by up to 64% in dry seasons and decrease by 19% in wet seasons.
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Bibliometric Analysis; Scientometrics; Human Influence on Climate; Natural Control of Climate; Climatic and Non-climatic Effects on Living Organisms; Improving Climate Monitoring; Climate Variability; Climate Models; CO2
Online: 3 May 2021 (17:01:28 CEST)
This article presents and discusses analytical data on the scientific publication record from 1910 to 2020 on two topics: "climate" and "climate change/global warming/climate emergency". The goal is to visualize how the publication record on these two topics has evolved over time, from different classification perspectives (year, country, source and organization). Three hypotheses are tested using data collected from Web of Science and various graphical representations of the data. It is found that research output related to the Earth’s contemporary changing climate overtook that of general climate research in 2011, and the publication ratio has been expanding in the last decade. There are significant differences in the publication countries and sources between the two topics, and conversely less significant differences in terms of organizations publishing these works. Differentiation factors that affect the level of research output and engagement on the climate challenge include: island versus landlocked nations, specialized versus general scientific journals, academic versus institutional organizations. The future of the publication records is discussed, such as the emergence of new terms to refer to the climate challenge, such as “climate emergency”.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.0881.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Life Sciences Keywords: Climate change; livestock farmers; rural livelihoods; climate education.
Online: 12 May 2023 (04:33:58 CEST)
Climate change mainly affects production and consumption systems, such as: food, livelihoods, production (e.g., reduced milk production), water, and land use. The role of local knowledge has been recognized as important for decision-making under changing circumstances. This study was conducted in the northern part of the Ecuadorian Andes using a sample of 170 dairy-cattle-producing households. The objectives were: i) to characterize the rural livelihoods of dairy cattle farmers, ii) to evaluate access to climate information and perceptions of climate change, and iii) to determine the relationship between livelihoods and perceptions of climate change. Significant differences were identified between the groups evaluated in relation to the dairy farmers’ livelihoods. In addition, 85.29% of the respondents mentioned that climate information is important, but 67.83% do not trust the sources of information. It was found that there is a significant relationship between the level of education and age with the variables of climate change perceptions. This combined knowledge allows people to promote agri-environmental and educational policies to achieve climate literacy at a rural level.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.2033.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Aquatic Science Keywords: Climate change; salmonids; Salmo; rivers; freshwater; migration
Online: 30 May 2023 (04:05:33 CEST)
The migratory life history of anadromous salmonids requires successful migration between nursery, feeding and spawning habitats. Smoltification is the major transformation anadromous salmonids undergo before migration to feeding areas and prepares juvenile fish for downstream migration and entry to seawater. We reviewed the effects of climate change on smolt ecology from growth of juveniles in freshwater to early post-smolts in sea. Shift in the suitable thermal conditions by climate change is causing Atlantic salmon to expand their range northwards, while in the southern edge of their distribution populations struggle with high temperatures and occasional droughts. Climatic conditions, particularly warmer temperatures, are affecting growth during freshwater phase in the river. Better growth in the northern latitudes leads to earlier smoltification. Thermal refuges, the areas of cooler water in the river, are especially important for salmonids impacted by climate change. Restoring and maintaining connectivity and suitable diverse mosaic habitat in rivers are important for survival and growth throughout the range. The start of the smolt migration has shifted earlier as a response to increasing water temperatures, which has led to concerns of mismatch with optimal conditions for post-smolts in the sea decreasing their survival. A wide smolt window allowing all migrating phenotypes from early to late migrant’s safe access to sea is important in changing environmental conditions. This is true also for regulated rivers, where flow regulation practices cause selection pressures on migrating salmonid phenotypes. Life history in freshwater affects also marine survival, and there is a need for better collaboration across life stages and habitats among researchers and managers to boost the smolt production in rivers.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202307.0628.v1
Subject: Engineering, Energy And Fuel Technology Keywords: climate change; climate equity; energy equity; energy reductions; fossil fuels; global sustainability; policy changes; renewable energy; technological optimism.
Online: 10 July 2023 (11:50:49 CEST)
Conventional methods of climate change (CC) mitigation have not ‘bent the curve’ of steadily rising annual anthropic CO2 emissions or atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. This study reviews the present position and likely future of such methods, using recently published literature with a global context. It particularly looks at how fast they could be implemented, given that the limited time available for avoiding catastrophic CC (CCC). The study then examines solar geoengineering, an approach often viewed as complementary to conventional mitigation. The review next introduces equity considerations, and shows how this will shorten even further the time available for effective action for CC mitigation. The main findings are as follows. Conventional mitigation approaches will be implemented too slowly to be of much help in avoiding CCC, partly because some suggested technologies are infeasible, while others are either of limited technical potential, or, like wind and solar energy, cannot be introduced fast enough. Because of these problems, solar geoengineering is increasingly advocated as a quick-acting and effective solution. However, it could have serious side effects, and given that there will be winners and losers at the international as well as the more regional level, political opposition may make it difficult to implement. The conclusion is that global energy consumption itself must be rapidly reduced to avoid catastrophic climate change.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.1311.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Primary Health Care Keywords: green podiatry; health; climate emergency; climate change; healthcare; greenhouse gases; sustainability; environment
Online: 20 September 2023 (04:48:03 CEST)
Introduction The climate crisis is essentially a public health crisis. Response is imperative to prevent economic and social crises associated with the growing burden of climate impacts on human health and the health care sector. Green Podiatry Pillars By adopting the three pillars of Exercise, Evidence, and Everyday changes, podiatrists can contribute to more sustainable health and health care. Discussion Educating our patients to use their feet for low carbon active transport, eliminating interventions not supported by evidence, and reducing fossil fuel driven supply chains and energy use, are three impactful measures that all podiatrists, and indeed, all health and medical personnel, need to adopt. The avoidable suffering, enormous and costly use of resources for diabetic foot disease, is a scourge that must realise its preventable potential. It is too late, too costly, too polluting, and too sad, to continue to direct health care and research efforts and budgets, to an expensive modifiable diabetes disease process, potentiated by poor food and physical inactivity. Affected patients require skilled support, to avert such chronic disease processes, often not of their making. Conclusions Healthcare contributes 5 to 8% of green house gases (GHG), and non-communicable diseases (NCD) are increasing, so healthcare must lead on primary health. As citizens and health professionals, we must advocate for better community health, and educate our patients. Future Directions All health and medical personnel need to consider planetary health and sustainable healthcare within their daily work. Healthcare must act to address climate change, and realise benefits for people and planet.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201904.0171.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: adaptation; climate change; green economy; agriculture
Online: 15 April 2019 (12:30:46 CEST)
An opinion dependent cross sectional survey was conducted among charland peoples of Noakhali, Bangladesh with a view to identify the factors that affect green economy. Nijhumdwip Island and Tamaruddi union are highly affected by cyclone and soil salinity. Unpredictable rainfall is the most acute in Nijhumdwip. Lack of information the main problem in Nijhumdwip Island. Farmers are found less interest in integrated farming and crop diversification. Few farmers from Sonadia Union are involved in homestead gardening. Regression analysis have shown a negative relationship (p<0.001) between education of stockholders and decrease of crop production. On the other hand education level of stockholders is to be found positively (p<0.05) varied with decrease of food insecurity. So it can be said that educated farmers are more adaptive against climate change.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201607.0006.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: adaptation; Brazil; climate change policy; mitigation; risks
Online: 7 July 2016 (10:54:49 CEST)
Subnational governments play a key role responding to climate change risks in terms of policy strategies and instruments. This article analyzes how Brazilian municipal and state governments have developed and implemented public policies to mitigate and to adapt to climate change risks. We surveyed all cities’ and states’ climate policies within the country. The methodological approach includes five main points of analysis: 1. mitigation targets and intentions; 2. adaptation actions; 3. stakeholders’ participation; 4. policy implementation; 5. participation in networks related to climate change. Our results suggest that even though subnational climate policies in Brazil are isolated initiatives within the national context, they play an important role responding to climate change risks in different scales and levels. The strongest Brazilian policies with both mitigation and adaptation actions counted on previous mobilization for the climate issue involving different stakeholders from several segments of the society. These governments have also participated in transnational cooperation networks related to climate change.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201906.0295.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Biochemistry And Molecular Biology Keywords: Heat stress; durum wheat; yield; tolerance; fertility; climate change; resilience
Online: 28 June 2019 (11:51:31 CEST)
Heat stress occurring during the reproductive stage of wheat has a detrimental effect on productivity. A durum wheat core set was exposed to simulated terminal heat stress by applying plastic tunnels at the time of flowering over two seasons. Mean grain yield was reduced by 54% compared to control conditions, and grain number was the most critical trait for tolerance to this stress. The combined use of tolerance indices and grain yield identified five elites: Kunmiki, Berghouata1, Margherita2, IDON37-141, and Ourgh. The core set was also subjected to genome wide association study using 7,652 polymorphic SNPs markers. The most critical genomic regions were identified in association with spike fertility and tolerance indices on chromosome 1A, 5B and 6B. Haplotype analysis on a set of 208 elites confirmed that lines that carried the positive allele at all three QTLs resulted in a yield advantage of 8% when field tested under daily temperatures above 31° C. Two of the QTLs were successfully validated into KASP markers and explained >10% of the phenotypic variation for an independent elite germplasm set. These genomic regions can now be readily deployed via breeding to improve resilience to climate change and increase productivity in heat-stressed areas.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202009.0621.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: climate change; stream flow; SWAT; Gumara watershed; Blue Nile
Online: 26 September 2020 (08:26:24 CEST)
Climate change plays a pivotal role in the hydrology of tributaries in the upper Blue Nile basin. This study was designed to reveal the extent to which climate change impacts on stream flow of the Gumara watershed under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate change scenario. The study considered the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios using the second generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2). The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used for calibration and projection of future climatic data of the study area. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used for simulation of the future stream flow of the watershed. Result showed that the average temperature will be increasing by 0.84oC, 2.6oC and 4.1oC in the end of this century under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively. The change in monthly rainfall amount showed a fluctuating trend in all scenarios but the overall annual rainfall amount is projected to increase by 8.6%, 5.2% and 7.3% in RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 respectively. Overall, this study revealed that, due to climate change, the stream flow of the watershed is found to be increasing by 4.06%, 3.26%, and 3.67% under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202010.0606.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior And Systematics Keywords: virology; emerging viruses; vector-borne diseases; climate change
Online: 29 October 2020 (09:49:40 CET)
Three decades have now passed since the first papers linking climate change to issues in human disease and healthcare. One of the most active topics in this area has been the implication of climate change events, particularly temperature and humidity fluctuations, in the northward spread of vector-borne viruses from more tropical regions into Europe and North America. However, some detailed studies of one such emerging disease, tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEv), have called the connection into question, concentrating the debate on the investigation of precise mechanisms for the spread of viral disease. More recently, firmer statistical correlations have been made between climate variables, the presence of insect vectors and the prevalence of viral disease, particularly for West Nile Virus (WNV). These insights suggest avenues for mechanistic confirmation of the involvement of climate change in other diseases where the connection remains conjectural.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.1844.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Government Keywords: climate change; public spending; agriculture sector; GMM
Online: 30 October 2023 (06:06:16 CET)
Climate change not only affects weather conditions, patterns, and the frequency and severity of extreme weather events but also changes how governments spend money. Agriculture is an important sector of the European Union (EU), and it is projected to decrease by 16% by 2050, therefore a third of the EU budget has been spent on agricultural funding, adaptation, and climate action. The effect of climate change on agriculture is mixed and dependent on the country and its location. The southern EU is adversely affected while the northern EU is positively affected by the changes in weather patterns. The main goal of this paper is to gain insight regarding the effect that climate change has on public spending in relation to the agricultural sector of the EU, by using the pooled OLS and GMM methods. The study concluded that agriculture has a significant impact on public spending in the southern countries of the EU, where it represents a significant portion of the GDP. Inflation influences public spending in the whole EU region, the northern and southern countries of the EU. Rain has a moderately significant impact on public spending in the whole EU region. It is advised that governments maintain a controllable level of inflation using fiscal and monetary policy that will implicitly control public spending.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202308.0059.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: climate shocks; temperature change; inflation; monetary policy
Online: 1 August 2023 (10:50:25 CEST)
In the era of persistent globalization, climate governance has emerged as a prominent concern within both the theoretical community and government departments of diverse nations. Of particular interest in academic research is the adverse effect of climate shocks on the global economy. This paper employs average temperature as a surrogate indicator for climate shocks and examines the influence of temperature fluctuations on inflation levels using a balanced panel dataset from 1995 to 2021. The findings indicate a positive association between temperature change and inflation within the country, which remains consistent even after subjecting the analysis to multiple robustness tests. Furthermore, accounting for heterogeneity reveals variations in the magnitude of response of inflation levels to temperature fluctuations. Regarding the analysis of underlying mechanisms, the study underscores the significance of energy demand as a pivotal pathway influencing inflationary pressures at the national level. Lastly, by incorporating GDP per capita as a threshold, the research reveals a nonlinear relationship between temperature change and inflation levels.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202106.0536.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Aridity indices; Climate change; Projections; EURO-CORDEX
Online: 22 June 2021 (09:24:26 CEST)
The assessment of aridity conditions is a key factor for water management and the implementation of mitigation and adaptation policies in agroforestry systems. Towards this aim three aridity indices were computed for the Iberian Peninsula (IP): the De Martonne Index (DMI), the Pinna Combinative Index (PCI), and the Erinç Aridity Index (EAI). These three indices were first computed for the baseline period 1961‒1990, using a gridded observational data (E-OBS), and, subsequently, for the periods 2011‒2040 (short-range) and 2041‒2070 (medium-range) using an ensemble of six Regional Climate Models (RCMs) experiments generated by the EURO-CORDEX project. Two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were analyzed, an intermediate anthropogenic radiative forcing scenario (RCP4.5) and a fossil-intensive emission scenario (RCP8.5). Overall, the three indices disclose a strengthening of aridity and dry conditions in central and southern Iberia until 2070, mainly under RCP8.5. Strong(weak) statistically significant correlations were found between these indices and the total mean precipitation (mean temperature) along with projected significant decreasing(increasing) trends for precipitation(temperature). The prevalence of years with arid conditions (above 70% for 2041‒2070 under both RCPs) are projected to have major impacts in some regions, such as southern Portugal, Extremadura, Castilla-La Mancha, Comunidad de Madrid, Andalucía, Región de Murcia, Comunidad Valenciana, and certain regions within the Aragón province. The projected increase in both the intensity and persistence of aridity conditions in a broader southern half of Iberia will exacerbate the exposure and vulnerability of this region to climate change, while the risk of multi-level desertification should be thoroughly integrated into regional and national water management and planning.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0091.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: E-tourism; Climate; Climate Change; Tourism Industry
Online: 5 July 2020 (17:04:13 CEST)
In the recent century, the tourism industry and within it the tourism economy are one of the most important and fundamental sectors of engaged business. E-tourism can be used as a dynamic tool in up to date areas of informative information and tourism marketing will be considered as a suitable field for the tourism industry. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between climate change and the amount of revenues from the tourism industry relying on a tool called e-tourism, and informing and providing services through this way so that Iran can achieve a greater share of export of a single-product oil economy combined with economic growth and sustainable development goals. The method of this research is descriptive-analytical.
Subject: Arts And Humanities, Humanities Keywords: Environmentalism; Climate change; Jellyfish metaphor; Humanity; Philosophical analysis.
Online: 11 July 2023 (10:31:29 CEST)
This treatise offers a philosophical odyssey into the exigency of conservation within the broader context of an increasingly interconnected world, beset by the perils of globalization, climate change, and the looming specter of global warming. Employing the evocative metaphor of a jellyfish, it endeavors to shed light on the paramount role of humanity as the principal protagonist in the saga of environmental predicaments, thereby accentuating our profound moral responsibility to navigate the labyrinthine pathways toward viable solutions. While this discourse abstains from presenting empirical or case-specific inquiries, it unfurls an incisive analytical vantage point that enriches our cognitive grasp of the intricate interplay between human societies and the pristine realms of the natural order. By expounding upon poignant exemplars of environmental degradation and unveiling the resplendent tapestry of statistical observations, the profound ethical imperatives that undergird the imperative to confront predicaments such as climate change are thrust into the limelight of intellectual inquiry. Consequently, by delving deep into these philosophical bedrocks, this magnum opus augments our erudition concerning the multifaceted nexus that binds humankind to their surroundings, thus affording us a glimpse into the subtle tapestry of a complex relationship that must be diligently nurtured and preserved.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202303.0394.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: isoprene; climate change; SEA; WRF; MEGAN; temperature; PAR
Online: 22 March 2023 (09:43:52 CET)
Biogenic emission can have significant impact on atmospheric chemistry. Isoprene (C5H8) is known as the most predominant volatile organic compound and its emission is highly dependent on temperature and light (solar radiation). This study aims to investigate future changes of isoprene emission under climate change scenario. The Southeast Asia (SEA) region is home to 15% of the world’s tropical forest, and the biogenic emission from this region can have significant effect on the global climate chemistry. Three climate change scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) were used to drive climate change simulation in 2013 (baseline), 2030 (near-future), 2050 (mid-century), 2070 (post-mid) and 2100 (end of century) using the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF v3.9.1) model. The Model Emission of Gases and Aerosol from Nature (MEGAN v2.1) was then used to simulate isoprene fluxes using climate output datasets from the WRF model. This study highlights that the projected mean surface temperature and PAR (photosynthetic active radiation) were higher in July than in January. Towards the end of the century, the overall surface temperature and PAR over the SEA region is expected to increase by 0.9℃ - 2.1℃, and 7.6 W m-2 – 12 W m-2 under all RCPs. The all-time high isoprene emitters are Borneo and Papua Island. Meanwhile, the projected increment of isoprene emission over this region is between 10 – 14%, 15-30% and 29 – 53% for RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, respectively. Our result concludes that the total isoprene emission was higher during July, consistent with the high surface temperature and PAR. The results also agreed with the hypothesis of high isoprene emission over the region that has oil palm plantation. Thus, challenges in dealing with future emissions of isoprene in SEA are closely tied to future climate policies to limit the warming of the atmosphere over this region and the land-use conversion of palm oil plantations.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.0144.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: density altitude; Chinese airports; climate change
Online: 4 September 2023 (08:03:15 CEST)
This study examines the projected impact of climate change on the Density Altitude (DA) at Chinese airports during the summer by the end of the 21st century. Findings indicate that climate change is expected to significantly increase the DA at all Chinese airports, with an estimated rise between 300 and 800 feet. The analysis suggests temperature increases will universally contribute to a rise in DA. Pressure changes, however, are more variable. Most airports are predicted to see an increase in pressure, which could offset some temperature effects on the DA. Airports in eastern China are expected to see a decrease in pressure, amplifying the effects on DA and creating operational challenges.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202108.0284.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Climate change; Scientific uncertainty; Moral uncertainty; Deep uncertainty; Risk; IPCC; Storylines; Probability; Expected utility
Online: 13 August 2021 (08:26:29 CEST)
While the foundations of climate science and ethics are well established, fine-grained climate predictions, as well as policy-decisions, are beset with uncertainties. This chapter maps climate uncertainties and classifies them as to their ground, extent and location. A typology of uncertainty is presented, centered along the axes of scientific and moral uncertainty. This typology is illustrated with paradigmatic examples of uncertainty in climate science, climate ethics and climate economics. Subsequently, the chapter discusses the IPCC’s preferred way of representing uncertainties and evaluates its strengths and weaknesses from a risk management perspective. Three general strategies for decision-makers to cope with climate uncertainty are outlined, the usefulness of which largely depends on whether or not decision-makers find themselves in a context of deep uncertainty. The chapter concludes by offering two recommendations to ease the work of policymakers, faced with the various uncertainties engrained in climate discourse.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.0729.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: adaptation; climate change; urban vulnerabilities; population health; resilience; urban regeneration; social acceptance
Online: 12 September 2023 (07:11:25 CEST)
The public administrations (PAs) that have joined the Covenant of Mayors must now complete their adaptation plans with the climate chapter (SECAP). At the same time, the previous Plan for sustainable energy (SEAP) was mainly dedicated to mitigation actions (sustainable energy). It was often managed directly by municipalities' in-house energy companies or agencies. The WMO1234 Recommendation (Guidance on Integrated Urban Hydrometeorological, Climate and Environmental Services) is a fundamental Guidance to allow PAs to make policies and decisions regarding city regeneration and population health prevention. The purpose of this manuscript is to describe a process undertaken in the Emilia-Romagna region to build a coherent frame from the individuation of local environmental vulnerabilities and adopt specific policies. This frame was created by the contribution of various Institutions, including the Regional Authority, which furnished the main directives and tools for the mitigation and adaptation, the Municipality of Bologna, which prepared the first Adaptation Plan following the SECAP guidance, the Emilia-Romagna branch of Italian Association of Municipalities (ANCI), which took in charge the approach to harmonize different urban contexts and to communicate with stakeholders and population, and Research Institutes and Scientific Associations to explore, with specific studies and modeling application, the outcomes produced by a joint support to the new urban directives, such as the General Urban Planning Plan (PUG). To achieve this result, the WMO Guidance 1234 has been assumed as a reference methodology to ensure the best utilization of available data and widespread a common science-based methodological approach to other municipalities.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.2192.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Plant Sciences Keywords: Bread wheat; climate-smart germplasm; adaptation; global warming; heat tolerance; yield stability
Online: 31 May 2023 (07:53:47 CEST)
Bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is one of the world's most important staple food crop providing 20% global energy and dietary proteins. It is widely grown in sub-tropical and tropical areas and as such exposed to heat-stress especially at grain filling period (GFP). Global warming has further affected its production and productivity in these heat-stressed environments. We examined the effect of heat-stress on 18 morpho-physiological and yield-related traits in 96 bread wheat accessions. Heat susceptibility index (HSI <0.60) and yield stability (i <0.55) used as criteria for selecting the tolerant accessions. Heat-stress, imposed by delayed sowing, decreased crop growth and GFP, and as a result reduced morphological and yield-related traits, namely days to 50% anthesis, plant height, peduncle length, flag-leaf area, spike length, spikelets per spike, grain length and width, thousand grain weight (TGW), harvest index and yield. The reduction in the trait values was severe in susceptible accessions (48.2% yield reduction in IC277741) than the tolerant. Physiological traits like chlorophyll content, canopy temperature depression (CTD), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), plant waxiness and leaf rolling showed higher expression in the tolerant accessions under heat-stress. Scanning electron microscopy of matured wheat grains revealed ultrastructural changes in endosperm and aleurone cells caused due to heat-stress. The reduction of size and density of large starch granules is the major cause of yield and TGW decrease in the heat-stress susceptible lines. The most stable and high-yielding accessions namely IC566223, IC128454, IC335792, EC576707, IC535176, IC529207, IC446713 and IC416019 were identified as the climate-smart germplasm lines. Germplasm lines possessing desirable traits were selected as po-tential parents for the development of bi-parental and multi-parental populations.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202311.1720.v1
Subject: Public Health And Healthcare, Public, Environmental And Occupational Health Keywords: climate change; positive and negative affect; pro-environmental behavioural intentions; climate anxiety
Online: 28 November 2023 (08:15:55 CET)
The study aimed to investigate the effect of climate change exposure on affect and pro-environmental behavioural intentions in a randomised controlled trial. An online survey was completed by 100 adult participants and included measures of affect and pro-environmental behavioural intentions pre- and post-exposure. Participants were randomly allocated to a group that saw a climate change video (n=55) or a group that saw a non-climate change video (n=45). The findings showed were that participants in the climate change group showed a significant increase in negative affect and pro-environmental behavioural intention scores post-video exposure compared to the non-climate change video group. This suggests that climate change video exposure negatively influences affect but also potentially increases the intention to act pro-environmentally. These findings have the potential to support policies and societal change, however further investigation into the type of contents, actual behaviour change, and impacts on diverse populations (e.g., minority groups) is needed that influences pro-environmental behaviours is required. Furthermore, to achieve a greater impact, future research should be conducted measuring actual pro-environmental behaviour change, including with those from diverse populations.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.1653.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Climate; livelihood; crop production; collective action; public good
Online: 23 June 2023 (10:18:59 CEST)
Climate change is a large and challenging collective action problem facing the world today. This seminar review impacts of climate change on r yield of major cereal crops. Literatures have indicated that climate change would likely have positive impact in the highland agro-ecology in the short run. However, in the long run climate change will have negative impact in all agro-ecology. Negative impacts will be high in low land agro-ecology. Failure to prepare for climate variability can seriously affect the livelihood of smallholder farmers. Ethiopia by enacting Climate-Resilient Green Economy strategy and National Adaptation Plan aims to minimize the impacts of CC. Despite the existing adaptation and mitigation strategies negative impacts of climate change on agriculture especially on cereal crop production is continued. Thus, both private and public investment on adaptation strategies should be expanded more. Studies regarding the impacts of climate change on labour productivity, labour market, its distributional (which section society mostly by climate change?) and why the existing adaptation strategies are not successful? are not well studied, as most literature are focused on impact of climate change on yield, its adaptation and mitigation strategies.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202304.0945.v1
Subject: Engineering, Energy And Fuel Technology Keywords: Climate change; Ecuador; energy; hydroelectric; pathways; renewable; scenarios
Online: 26 April 2023 (03:36:09 CEST)
Nowadays, hydropower is the principal renewable; however, climate change increases extreme events such as floods, droughts, erosion, and sedimentation of rivers that produce uncertainty in hydroelectric generation. Thus, this document aims to analyze the climate change projections in the hydropower systems of Ecuador based on data from 14 projects studying the scenarios ac-cording to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The study period starts from 2010 to 2020 with historical data, collects the tendency, defines a database year, and then projects the scenarios to 2050. The quantitative methodology uses a statistic on Ecuador's hydropower obtained inflow time series to calculate the deviation over the last years and develop a model to simulate future generation. The results show that the hydropower in Ecuador is expected to decrease considerably through 2050 due to meteorological changes. In this calculation of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, the selected scenarios show a reduction in SSP5 of 11.5%, SP2 of 16.2%, and SSP4 of 18.2% to 2050, concluding that the oppor-tunities for hydroelectric production facing climate change are variable, but the challenges are broad. In Ecuador, the projections of hydropower plants represent a sensitive issue of their re-ductions, especially knowing that the country had an energy grid in 2020 that depended on 87% of hydroelectric production.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202103.0353.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: adaptation; climate change; southern Mali; Heckman probit; vegetable production
Online: 12 March 2021 (20:27:55 CET)
This study aims to determine the impact of climate change on market garden production in the extreme south of Mali through the perception and adaptation of market gardeners to climatic phenomena. The study used two models, namely the probit selection and Heckman results models and multinomial logistic regression, based on data collected from producers. A total of 194 producers were surveyed. The results of Heckman's probit model indicate that experience in agriculture and the educational level of the producers are the two main determinants of producers' perception and simultaneous adaptation to climate change. Among these variables agricultural experience is both positively and negatively correlated with perception.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202106.0732.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Psychology Keywords: climate change; vulnerability; resilience; mental maladjustment; emergent behaviour; mass effect phenomena
Online: 30 June 2021 (11:40:56 CEST)
Climate change is one of the biggest challenges of our times. Its impact on human populations is not yet completely understood. Many studies have focused on single aspects with contradictory observations. However, climate change is a complex phoenomenon that cannot be adequately addressed from a single discipline's perspective. Hence, we propose a comprehensive conceptual framework on the relationships between climate change and human responses. This framework includes biological, psychological and behavioural aspects, and provides a multidisciplinary overview and critical information for focused interventions. The role of tipping points and regime shifts is explored, and a historical perspective is presented to describe the relationship between climate evolution and socio-cultural crisis. Vulnerability, resilience and adaptation are analyzed from an individual and a community point of view. Finally, emergent behaviours and mass effect phenomena are examined that account for mental maladjustment and conflicts.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0476.v2
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Economics Keywords: Climate Variability; Climate Change; Food Security; Zero Hunger; System GMM; PCSE
Online: 31 August 2022 (03:22:49 CEST)
According to the World Food Programme (WFP), the projected increase in the human population stands at 2 billion people by 2050. At the same time, world food production is witnessing a declining trend over recent years, and 690 million (8.9%) of the world's population are already in severe starvation. Climate variability and climate change impacts on food security are very eminent today. For this reason, this study explored the real effects of climate variability and change on food security in Africa by applying the system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and the Panel Corrected Standard Errors (PCSEs) estimators on data from 2001–2018 for 38 selected African countries. The findings reveal that higher amounts of precipitation positively influence food security along two dimensions (food availability and utilization). Hotter temperatures negatively impact food availability and utilization. However, it aids food accessibility in Africa. Similarly, carbon dioxide emissions improve food availability and are harmful to food accessibility and food utilization in Africa. Consequently, the effects of climate variability and change on food security in Africa are undesirable, thereby putting the continent at risk of food insecurity over the long run. Given these findings, the study made appropriate recommendations for policy change to address the negative effects of climate variability and change on food security in Africa.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202106.0088.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Accounting And Taxation Keywords: Climate change; Female farmers; Rural; Ghana
Online: 2 June 2021 (15:25:00 CEST)
Climate change poses a major threat to development in most low and middle-income countries, especially the sub – Saharan Africa. Wurompo is a small farming community in the Wenchi Municipality of the Brong-Ahafo region of Ghana that depends on rain-fed agriculture activities for livelihood. In recent years, droughts, unpredictable rainfall pattern and crop failure have become common in the area. The study assessed knowledge and awareness, effects of climate change on female farmers, and their adaptation strategies. A case study in design, qualitative methods were used to collect data from 50 purposefully selected participants. Data were analyzed using themes and sub-themes generated from the research questions. Findings showed lack of adequate information and knowledge on climate change and its effects. Climate change has impacted negatively on these farmers stemming from decline in crop production and unavailability of adequate water supply in due season. Challenges to climate change adaptation are poverty, poor basic infrastructure, and modern farming practices. Farmers must be educated on climate change and its effects, with training on the necessary adaptation strategies to build their resilience. Policies that target rural farmers to adapt to climate change, and device modern agricultural techniques and practices are also necessary.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201809.0180.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: local climate change; nitrification; monochloramine; temperature
Online: 11 September 2018 (04:18:59 CEST)
In this study, air temperatures were collected between 1985 and 2016 and compared to water temperatures in four locations in the distribution system of Pasadena Water & Power (PWP) that received imported surface water between 2001 and 2016 and from the purveyor of imported water. The concentration of chloramine residual and nitrite concentrations were collected between 2001 and 2016 these five locations. The results indicate that the median nighttime temperature of the period 2009 - 2016 was 1.6 oC warmer than the period of 1985 - 2000 and 0.5 oC warmer than the period 2001 - 2008. The median water temperature in the four distribution system samples increased by 0.8 oC to 1.4 oC depending on the location over the study period (p<0.001). The median chloramine concentration fell significantly (p<0.001) at three distribution system locations and the nitrite concentrations increased significantly at all four distribution system locations.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202110.0403.v2
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Nature-based solutions; climate change adaptation; climate change vulnerability; social-ecological systems
Online: 20 September 2022 (12:35:06 CEST)
Nature-based solutions (NbS) - working with and enhancing nature to address societal challenges - are increasingly being featured in climate change adaptation policy and plans. While there is growing evidence that NbS can reduce vulnerability to climate change impacts in general, there is a lack of understanding on the mechanisms through which this can be achieved, particularly in the Global South. To address this, we analyse 85 nature-based interventions in rural areas across the Global South, and factors mediating their effectiveness, based on a systematic map of peer-reviewed studies encompassing a wide diversity of ecosystems, climate impacts, and intervention types. We develop and apply an analytical framework of people’s social-ecological vulnerability to climate change, in terms of six pathways of vulnerability reduction: social and ecological exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Most cases (95%) report a reduction in vulnerability, primarily by lowering ecosystem sensitivity to climate impacts (73% of interventions), followed by reducing social sensitivity (52%), reducing ecological exposure (36%), increasing social adaptive capacity (31%), increasing ecological adaptive capacity (19%) and/or reducing social exposure (14%). An analysis of mediating factors shows that social dimensions are equally important as technical factors in NbS to achieving equitable and effective outcomes. Attention to the distinct social and ecological pathways through which vulnerability is reduced helps to harness the multiple benefits of working with nature in a warming world.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.0332.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Parasitology Keywords: climate change; host-parasite; bioindicators
Online: 6 September 2023 (04:56:59 CEST)
Climate changes caused by anthropogenic actions can directly and indirectly affect living beings, including parasites and their hosts. Changes such as water temperature, pH, distribution of nutrients in the aquatic environment are some examples that can interfere with the fish community, whether in open water or in production systems. In this review, we will show how climate change can affect the adaptation of hosts and parasites in the aquatic environment and how these parasites can be used for environmental monitoring.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202307.1092.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Ecology Keywords: Antarctica; High Arctic; fungi; climate change
Online: 17 July 2023 (09:48:48 CEST)
The Antarctica and High Arctic regions are extreme environments, with average maximum temperatures below 0 °C for most days of the year. Interestingly, fungi inhabit these regions. This review describes the history of fungal surveys near the Syowa Station and the fungal diversity in this region. In the High Arctic region, I summarized the changes in fungal communities in glacial retreat areas of Ny-Ålesund, Norway and Ellesmere Island, Canada in response to climate change. In addition, growth and enzyme secretion ability of Antarctic and Arctic fungi at sub-zero temperatures are presented. Finally, I have also provided the future directions of Antarctic and Arctic fungal research.
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Immunology And Allergy Keywords: Climate Change; Policy; Migration; Health; Governance
Online: 12 November 2020 (11:39:36 CET)
Changing mobility patterns combined with changes in the climate present challenges and opportunities for global health, requiring effective, relevant and humane policy responses. This study used data from a systematic literature review that examined the intersection between climate change, migration and health. The aim of the present study was to synthesize policy recommendations in the peer-reviewed literature, regarding this type of environmental migration with respect to health, to strengthen the evidence-base. Systematic searches were conducted in four academic databases (PubMed, Ovid Medline, Global Health and Scopus) and Google Scholar for empirical studies published between 1990 – 2020 that used any study design to investigate migration and health in the context of climate change. Studies underwent a two-stage protocol-based screening process and eligible studies were appraised for quality using a standardized mixed-methods tool. From the initial 2,425 hits, 68 articles were appraised for quality and included in the synthesis. Among the policy recommendations, six themes were discernible: (1) avoid the universal promotion of migration as an adaptive response to climate risk; (2) preserve cultural and social ties of mobile populations; (3) enable the participation of migrants in decision-making in sites of relocation and resettlement; (4) strengthen health systems and reduce barriers for migrant access to health care; (5) support and promote optimization of social determinants of migrant health; (6) integrate health into loss and damage assessments related to climate change. The results call for transformative policies that support the health and wellbeing of people engaging in, or affected by mobility responses, including those whose migration decisions and experiences are influenced by climate change, and to establish and develop inclusive migrant healthcare.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201812.0095.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: Pakistan; Climate change; Rice production; ARDL
Online: 7 December 2018 (17:26:03 CET)
This research paper aims to examine the relationship between CO2, temperature, area, fertilizers and rice production in Pakistan. This study used Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) unit root tests to check the order of integration of each variable. The cointegration analysis with ARDL bounds testing approach is used to examine the impact of climate change on rice production in Pakistan over time series data from the period 1968 to 2014. The parameter stability test of the model is also checked at the end. The results of estimation show that the important variables of the study are cointegrated demonstrating the presence of long-run association among them. Furthermore, climate change factors, e.g. CO2 and temperature have a long-run and short-run positive effect on the production of rice in Pakistan. This present work is original and it is first time empirically tested the impact of climate change on rice production in Pakistan. The annual time series data of 47 years enhances the validity of the empirical findings. The most fruitful finding of this research is that rice production in Pakistan is positively influenced by emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) at 5 percent significance level in both long-run and short-run.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202307.1352.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: climate change, mitigation strategies, crops, biochar, biostimulants, soil
Online: 19 July 2023 (12:01:13 CEST)
In recent days, the adverse effect of climate change on soil properties in the agriculture sector is a dreadful reality worldwide. Climate change-induced abiotic stresses such as salinity, drought and temperature fluctuations are devastating the crops’ physiological responses, productivity and overall yield which is ultimately posing a serious threat to global food security and agroecosystems. The applications of chemical fertilizers and pesticides contribute towards further deterioration and rapid change in climate. Therefore, more careful, eco-friendly and sustainable strategies are required to mitigate the impact of climate-induced damage on agriculture sector. This paper reviews the recently reported damaging impacts of abiotic stresses on various crops along with two emerging mitigation strategies; biochar and biostimulants, in light of recent studies for combating the worsening impact of deteriorated environment and climate change on crops physiological responses, yields, soil properties, and environment. Here we highlighted the impact of climate change on agriculture and soil properties along with recently emerging mitigation strategies applying biochar and biostimulants, towards protecting the soil, agriculture and environment.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202104.0740.v1
Subject: Engineering, Control And Systems Engineering Keywords: coastal resilience; climate change; indicators; social-ecological system
Online: 28 April 2021 (10:18:36 CEST)
Accompanied by increasing population growth and urban sprawl, most coastal cities are unprecedentedly vulnerable to climate change and its impacts, such as sea level rise, increasing extreme storm events, and coastal flooding. Coastal resilience and sustainable development are antidotes to vulnerability; they aim to enhance the adaptive capability of absorbing disturbances and resisting uncertainty. This study explores building a quantitative assessment framework to measure resilience and provide an objective and comparable method to understand the strengths and weaknesses in a given region. The proposed 25 resilience indicators incorporate the aspects of essential livelihood protection, infrastructure and natural resource maintenance, emergency facilities and institutions, floodplain management regulations, and adaptive planning process. Each indicator is assigned the resilience quality that includes robustness, resourcefulness, redundancy, and rapidity. The aggregated resilience quality scoring reflects the systematic performance of the city to cope with the coastal hazards. The innovative part of this framework is combining hazard mitigation measures, climate adaptation strategies, and sustainable development goals together to achieve a comprehensive assessment method. In the case of New Haven, the resilience assessment is taken as a practical monitoring tool and decision-making support.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.0698.v1
Subject: Engineering, Civil Engineering Keywords: Building energy retrofitting; Double Skin Façades; climate change; regional climate model; dynamic energy modelling; MM5; CORDEX.
Online: 9 June 2023 (10:12:04 CEST)
In recent years, the need to make the built environment more resilient and adaptable to climate change has become increasingly evident. In Europe, this aspect concerns the vast majority of existing buildings, which present several deficiencies from the energy-efficiency point of view, considering they were designed before the introduction of modern energy codes. Nowadays, it is possible to retrofit existing buildings using advanced and high-efficient technologies such as Double Skin Façades (DSFs). The research aims to evaluate the use of properly designed DSFs for the energy restoration of existing buildings. In detail, various DSF configurations are applied to a residential building located in central Italy and investigated under present and future climate conditions, estimated through regional climate models. The results underline that all the analysed Double Skin Façades confirm to be a useful option, and, in particular, the Multi-Storey typology allows drastic energy needs decrement. Moreover, the general increase in temperatures and solar radiations could affect the building energy performance, and the insertion of DSF can mitigate the climate change effects, reducing the predicted energy consumption and ensuring better behaviours than the building in its original state.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.0897.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Water Science And Technology Keywords: water management; climate history; humans-nature cooperation; conflict resolution; dialectics
Online: 13 June 2023 (08:26:41 CEST)
The way humans use natural resources and especially freshwater, reflects their relationship with nature. It also influences the conceptual Water Resources Management (WRM) model. A historical review shows that the interplay between Humans and Nature is diachronically in constant change between two opposites: conflict and cooperation. Lessons from the past 20.000 years indicate that the WRM model is a function of two main parameters: (1) socio-economics, and (2) climate conditions. Three different Eras of the Humans-Nature relationship have been distinguished: (1) Naturalistic: Nature dominating Humans during the Last Glacial Period (100-10) kyr BC, (2) Dualistic: Nature-Humans cooperation and competition from 10 kyr BC to 1800 AD, and (3) Anthropocentric: Humans dominating Nature from 1800 AD to now. Since 2000, the Integrated WRM (IWRM) model is promoted as state-of-the-art and remains anthropocentric producing huge externalities. Its assessment during the last 20 years has given mixed results and needs to be reformulated. The new model we suggest is based on the dialectical tool for conflict resolution. It unifies Humans and Nature and enhances the social dimension of WRM. After identifying conflicts between stakeholders and the natural laws (eristic part), opposite objectives are unified to harmonize Humans with Nature (dialectical resolution). A case study of flood mitigation illustrates the eristic-dialectical methodology.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202105.0262.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Biochemistry And Molecular Biology Keywords: common garden; climate change; silver fir; grand fir; Balkan firs; drought stress; provenance test; resilience; climate transfer distance; adaptation
Online: 12 May 2021 (09:52:25 CEST)
Research Highlights: Data of advanced-age provenance tests were reanalyzed applying a new approach, to directly estimate the growth of populations at their original sites under individually generated future climates. The results reveal surprisingly high resilience potential of fir species. Background and Objectives: The growth and survival of silver fir under future climatic scenarios is insufficiently investigated at the xeric limits. The selective signature of past climate determining the current and projected growth was investigated to analyze the prospects of adaptive silviculture and assisted transfer of silver fir populations, and of the introduction of non-autochthonous species. Materials and Methods: Hargreaves’ climatic moisture deficit was selected to model height responses of adult populations. Climatic transfer distance was used to assess the relative drought stress of populations at the test site, relating these to the past conditions to which the populations had adapted. ClimateEU and ClimateWNA pathway RCP8.5 data served to determine individually past, current, and future moisture deficit conditions. Beside silver fir, other fir species from South Europe and the American Northwest were also tested. Results: Drought tolerance profiles explained the responses of transferred provenances and predicted their future performance and survival. Silver fir displayed significant within-species differentiation regarding drought stress response. Applying the assumed drought tolerance limit of 100mm relative moisture deficit, most of the tested silver fir populations seem to survive their projected climate at their origin until the end of the century. Survival is likely also for transferred Balkan fir species and for grand fir populations, but not for the Mediterranean species. Conclusions: The projections are less dramatic than provided by usual field assessments. Some results contradict generally accepted concepts. The method fills the existing gap between experimentally determined adaptive response and the predictions needed for management decisions. It also underscores the unique potential of provenance tests.
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Accounting And Taxation Keywords: Climate action; Climate policy innovation; Effectiveness; Shifting vulnerabilities; Green House Gases; Sustainable Development Goals; Telecoupling; Transformation; Resilience; Policy Field
Online: 18 November 2020 (10:33:31 CET)
The urgency to address the adverse impacts of climate change on livelihoods and ecosystems has seen an increase in global driven initiatives. However, shifting vulnerabilities associated with land use resource based adaptation and maladaptive feedback loops they create have been given low attention. Policy discourses that frame adaptation as a local responsibility and bias towards reducing industrial Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at the expense of Agricultural emissions across scale are thought to account for the undesirable situation. This calls for a reflective policy framework and climate policy innovation. We provide counter arguments using Drivers, Pressure, State, Impact, Response (DPSIR) model and telecoupling principles to suggest use of resilience as an integrative lens in visualising the proposal. Using a case study on resource constrained smallholder dairy production systems, western Kenya, we analyse the critical issues in the context of decision making and environmental externalities. The effect of price risks on dairy cattle feeding strategies and ultimately carbon footprints and ecoefficiencies were examined through methane simulation and gross margin analysis (GM). The lowest ecoefficiency was associated with exclusively local coping strategies i.e. Maize Stover (Ms), while the highest ecoefficiency was observed in feeding strategies that utilise external resources and/or legume fodders. We conclude that management of externalities need to capture institutional, economic processes and incentive systems, as well as organizational and policy coherence to shape the interests and behaviour of individual land user. In particular, policy innovation should focus on price and market risks as critical factors that mediate actor decision making at implementation level as they impact GHG emissions which transcend individual decision boundaries.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202309.1396.v1
Subject: Engineering, Architecture, Building And Construction Keywords: wooden houses; habitability and climate change; climate change adaptation; safe housing; sustainable housing
Online: 21 September 2023 (05:45:50 CEST)
The prefabricated houses supply in Chile was analyzed from web platforms, public market, social media, and Internal Revenue Service, using indicators according to regulatory compliance, complexity, and sustainability attributes, which are essential in advancing to industrialization, and climate change adaptability. The 80% is concentrated in construction, and manufacturing companies, 83% of them are legally registered,with the capacity of meeting technical requirements. To delve deeper into this, 54% has low level, 35% medium level, and 11% high level. The sustainability was measured in 5 levels: 2.7% (1), 37,5% (2), 58,6% (3), 1,1% (4) and 0% (5), which is the highest one. This attribute was determined as the weakest one. The proposed evaluation, based on indicators by attribute, is objective and relevant to consideration since there is still a lack of capacity to supply the housing deficit, and there is not attributes associated to security in habitability to address the climate change, and environment threats, with a lack of action by the state to promote this productive sector, therefore focusing more in provide products, than taking responsibility of the site, not advancing to become a real state agency, which could be improved if management, and regulation were incorporated.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.0726.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Waste Management And Disposal Keywords: Climate change; integrated water research management; water resources; nature based solutions; groundwater management
Online: 9 June 2023 (13:17:32 CEST)
Climate change affects water resources through the decrease of rainfall and the increase in temperatures and evapotranspiration. An indirect impact of climate change is also the increase of water uses by human activities. In this review, 320 papers were retrieved, of which 134 spanning five continents impacts and solutions to be used to better understand the effects of climate change on water resources, ecosystems, human health, security and socio-economic aspects were selected. Here, suggestions and proposals by scientists from around the world towards solutions, tips and ideas to deal with climate change and the best solutions for future water management were presented. The main solutions highlighted concern integrated water resources management, political direction, policies, increase in knowledge and new technologies. Furthermore, most of the papers analyzed underline that water resources management needs to incorporate protection and restoration of ecosystems and their services. Nature-based solutions need to be the starting point of new scientific and innovative ways to deal with climate change and towards future climate adaptation. In this complex evolution of the water resource, where is the management of the water resource in Italy going?
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202103.0099.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Business And Management Keywords: Economic risk assessment, capital-based framework, six-capital framework, climate response, climate adaptation, urban resilience
Online: 2 March 2021 (15:47:00 CET)
Estimating the economic risks of climate shocks and climate stressors on spatially heterogeneous cities over time remain highly challenging. The purpose of this paper is to present a practical methodology to assess the economic risks of climate change in developing cities to inform spatially sensitive municipal climate response strategies. Building on a capital-based framework (CBF), spatially disaggregated baseline and future scenario scores for economic wealth and its exposure to climate change are developed for six different classes of capital and across 77 major suburbs in Cape Town, South Africa. Capital-at-risk was calculated by combining relative exposure and capital scores across different scenarios and with population impacted plotted against the major suburbs and the city’s 8 main planning districts. The economic risk assessment presented here provides a generic approach to assist investment planning and the implementation of adaptation options through an enhanced understanding of relative levels of capital endowment vis-à-vis relative levels of exposure to climate-related hazards over time. An informed climate response strategy in spatially heterogeneous cities need to include spatially sensitive estimates on capital-at-risk and populations disproportionally impacted by climate exposure over time. The economic risk assessment approach presented here helps in advancing to such a goal.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202211.0321.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Business And Management Keywords: Tuscany; Val d’Orcia; climate change; viticulture; viniculture; agritourism
Online: 17 November 2022 (02:59:41 CET)
It is now widely accepted the climate change is having a profound impact on the weather systems around the world. These, in turn, have a considerable effect on two important elements of the Tuscan economy: wine producing and tourism. This case study sought to explore the relationship between the perception of Tuscan wine-producing agritourism owners of the potentially abstract notion of climate change and their concrete experiences as entrepreneurs. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with eight wine-producing agritourism owners or managers in Val d’Orcia, a small area of Siena, Tuscany and analyzed thematically. The impact of climate change on the area’s viticulture is undeniable but the responses to the challenges are more nuanced. Political leadership on the climate crisis appears absent and perhaps as a consequence, these small-scale operators lack knowledge and funds to enable them to plan ahead: they react often day-to-day to the immediate weather conditions rather than planning long term. While recognizing the difficulties they face from climate change as viticulturists, as agrotourism owners they welcome the longer seasons which enable them to open in the formally barren shoulder seasons but struggle with last-minute cancellations due to unpredictable weather in the area.
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Accounting And Taxation Keywords: Climate change risk; carbon dioxide; asset pricing modeling
Online: 12 July 2021 (12:01:49 CEST)
In this study, I extend the Fama and French five-factor asset pricing model with a sixth factor, namely, carbon risk, to investigate its impact on equity returns. To measure carbon risk, a new factor ‘pollutant minus green,’ is developed using the difference between the weighted average returns of pollutant and green firms across 51 developed and emerging countries across four categories—North America, Europe, Emerging Markets, and the Asia Pacific. The results reveal that North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific markets have a carbon risk premium that gets eliminated in small-cap firms. The carbon risk factor is further tested in left-hand side (LHS) test asset portfolios and found to be more pronounced with size-effect anomaly; specifically, small stock firms report greater declining average returns because of more exposure than the mega-cap stocks to carbon dioxide emissions. Furthermore, size-effect anomaly prevails with profitability and investment factors across firms. Therefore, high profitability, as well as high investment small firms, show a greater decline than the big stock firms in average returns when their carbon dioxide emissions increase. The asset pricing model evaluation is carried out through the Gibbons, Ross, and Shanken test. The six-factor model directed at capturing carbon risk patterns in average equity returns performs better than the three-factor and five-factor models of Fama and French (1993 and 2015) in the majority of categories under 3x3 sorting and compete with both Fama and French model under 2x4x4 sorted LHS portfolios. The finding of this study offers various useful applications for investors, policymakers, brokers, corporations, governmental pollution abatement institutions, and other stakeholders who wish to obtain carbon risk premium.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201809.0528.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: GCM; RCM; CMIP5; CORDEX; climate change; climate model selection; upper Indus basin
Online: 27 September 2018 (04:01:11 CEST)
This study focusses on identifying a set of representative future climate projections for the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). Although a large number of GCM’s predictor sets are nowadays available in the CMIP5 archive, the issue of their reliability for specific regions must still be confronted. This situation makes it imperative to sort out the most appropriate, single or small-ensemble set of GCMs for the assessment of climate change impacts in a region. Here a set of different approaches is adopted and applied for a step-wise shortlist and selection of appropriate climate models for the UIB under two RCPs: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, based on, a) range of projected mean changes, b) range of projected extreme changes, and c) skill in reproducing the past climate. Furthermore, because of higher uncertainties in climate projection for high mountainous regions like the UIB, a wider range of future GCM climate projections is considered by using all possible future extreme scenarios (wet-warm, wet-cold, dry-warm, dry-cold). Based on this two-fold procedure, a limited number of climate models is pre-selected, out of which the final selection is done by assigning ranks to the weighted score for each of the mentioned selection criteria. The dynamically downscaled climate projections from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) available for the top-ranked GCMs are further statistically downscaled (bias-corrected) over the UIB. The downscaled projections up to year 2100 indicate temperature increases ranging between 2.3 °C and 9.0 °C and precipitation changes that range, from a slight annual increase of 2.2% under the drier scenarios, to as high as 15.9% for the wet scenarios. Moreover, for all scenarios, the future precipitation will be more extreme, as the probability of wet days will decrease, while, at the same time, the precipitation intensities will increase. The spatial distribution of the downscaled predictors across the UIB also shows similar patterns for all scenarios, with a distinct precipitation decrease over the south-eastern parts of the basin, but an increase in the northeastern parts. These two features are particularly intense for the “Dry-Warm” and the “Median” scenarios over the late 21st century.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202105.0536.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Anatomy And Physiology Keywords: Argan biosphere reserve; Climate change; Rainfall; Temperature; Woodland regression
Online: 24 May 2021 (07:44:25 CEST)
This paper explores the effect of climate change on the regression of the Argan tree (Argania spinosa L. Skeels) woodland, focusing on the Argan Biosphere Reserve and especially in the Souss plain (Western Morocco). Rainfall and temperature data of four sites within the Argan Biosphere Reserve were analyzed over the last 60 years to assess any climatic change. Regression curves applied to the dataset showed an important decrease in rainfall (18 to 26 %) in the four locations as well as an increase in temperature (1 to 2 °C). These changes may have a detrimental effect on the Argan woodland although human factors have been reported to be the main factor of its regression. It can therefore be concluded that the reduction in rainfall and the increase in temperature should now be considered as factors of Argan woodland regression.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202010.0150.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Psychology Keywords: mental health services; climate change; disasters; trauma; prevention treatment
Online: 7 October 2020 (09:22:41 CEST)
This review examines from a services perspective strategies for preparedness and response to mental health impacts of three types of climate-related events: 1) acute climate-related events such as hurricanes, floods and wildfires, 2) sub-acute or long-term changes in the environment such as drought and heat stress; and 3) the existential threat of long-lasting changes, including higher temperatures, rising sea levels and a permanently altered and potentially uninhabitable physical environment. Strategies for acute events include development and implementation of guidelines and interventions for monitoring and treating adverse mental health outcomes and strengthening individual and community resilience, training of non-mental health professionals for services delivery, and the mapping of available resources and locations of at-risk populations. Additional strategies for sub-acute changes include advocacy for mitigation policies and programs and adaptation of guidelines and interventions to address the secondary impacts of sub-acute events such as economic loss, threats to livelihood, health and well-being, population and family displacement, environmental degradation and collective violence. Strategies for long-lasting changes include implementation of evidence-based risk communication interventions that address the existential threat of climate change, promoting the mental health benefits of environmental conservation, and promoting positive mental health impacts of climate change.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202010.0095.v1
Subject: Medicine And Pharmacology, Immunology And Allergy Keywords: health; climate change; communication; health promotion; health education; perception
Online: 5 October 2020 (14:31:37 CEST)
The negative implications of climate change for human health are now well-established. Yet these have not been fully considered into climate change communication strategies. Research suggests that reorienting climate change communication with a health frame could be a useful communication strategy. We conducted a long-term and broad overview of existing scientific literature in order to summarize the state of research activity in this area, by extent and by nature. The methodology is based on a scoping review of scientific articles published on climate change communication and health between 1990 and mid-2016 indexed in the PubMed, ScienceDirect, and Web of Science databases. The screened citations were reviewed for inclusion and data were extracted and coded in order to conduct quantitative (e.g. frequencies) and qualitative (i.e. content analysis) analyses.Out of 2,866 identified published papers, only 24 articles were eligible for analyses. The main themes identified were effective communication of climate change (n=10, 41.7%), the role of health professionals (n=10, 41.7%) and the perception of climate change (n=4, 16.7%). We identified a large proportion of secondary research articles (n= 15, 62.5%) including reviews (n=5, 20.8%) and opinion articles (n=10, 41.7%). A significant share - 37.57% (n=9) - of the identified articles were classified as original research articles, suggesting that the number of publications in this area - particularly original research - has not grown rapidly.This scoping review identified several themes including effective communication of climate change, the role of health professionals, and the perception of climate change in the selected articles on the subject. The research literature on the communication of climate change and health is relatively recent and emerging: the first articles on the subject were published from 2008 onward only.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201712.0127.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: vulnerability index; Maasai pastoralists; principal component analysis; climate change
Online: 18 December 2017 (17:21:00 CET)
Human adaptive responses to climate change occur at the local level, where climatic variability is experienced. Therefore analyzing vulnerability at the local level is important in planning effective adaptation options in a semi-arid environment. This study was conducted to assess vulnerability of Maasai pastoralist communities in Kajiado County, Kenya to climate change by generating vulnerability index for the communities. Data was collected using questionnaires that were administered to 305 households in the five different administrative wards (Oloosirkon/Sholinke, Kitengela, Kapetui North, Kenyawa-Poka and Ilmaroro) in Kajiado East. Vulnerability was measured as the net effect of adaptive capacity, sensitivity and exposure to climate change. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to assign weights to the vulnerability indicators used for the study and also to calculate the household vulnerability index. A vulnerability map was produced using the GIS software package ArcGIS 10.2. Results showed that gender of household head, age of household head, educational level, access to extension agents, herd size, livestock diversity and access to credit facility influenced vulnerability of the Maasai pastoralists to climate change in Kajiado East. The result showed that the most vulnerable communities with the highest negative vulnerability index value are Ilpolosat (-2.31), Oloosirikon (-2.22), Lenihani (-2.05), Konza (-1.81) and Oloshaiki (-1.53). The communities with the highest positive vulnerability index values were Kekayaya (4.02), Kepiro (3.47), Omoyi (2.81), Esilanke (2.23), Kisaju (2.16) and Olmerui (2.15). We conclude that provision of basic amenities such as good roads and electricity; access to extension agents, access to credit facilities and herd mobility will reduce vulnerability of Maasai pastoralists in Kajiado east to climate change and variability.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202306.1197.v1
Subject: Computer Science And Mathematics, Artificial Intelligence And Machine Learning Keywords: Clustering; Machine Learning; Greenhouse Gas; Finite-time Thermodynamics; Climate Change
Online: 16 June 2023 (08:30:10 CEST)
Several sun models suggest the radioactive balance where the concentration of greenhouse gases and the albedo effect are related to the Earth's surface temperature. There is a considerable increment of greenhouse gases due to anthropogenic activities. Climate change correlates with this alteration in the atmosphere and an increase in surface temperature. Efficient forecasting of climate change and its impacts of 1.5°C global warming above pre-industrial levels could be helpful to respond to the threat of c.c. and develop sustainably. Many studies have predicted the temperature change in the coming years. The global community has to create a model that can realize good predictions to ensure the best way to deal with the warming. Thus, we propose a finite-time thermodynamic (FTT) approach in the present work. The FTT can solve problems such as the faint young sun paradox. In addition, we use different machine learning models to evaluate our method and compare the experimental prediction and results.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202112.0213.v1
Subject: Engineering, Automotive Engineering Keywords: GIS; Himalayan region; SRM model; simulation; snowmelt runoff; climate change
Online: 13 December 2021 (16:06:43 CET)
The current study was planned to simulate runoff due to the snowmelt in the Lidder River catchment of Himalayan region under climate change scenarios. A basic degree-day model, Snowmelt-Runoff Model (SRM) was utilized to assess the hydrological consequences of change in climate. The SRM model performance during the calibration and validation was assessed using volume difference (Dv) and coefficient of determination (R2). The Dv was found as 11.7, -10.1, -11.8, 1.96, and 8.6 during 2009-2014, respectively, while the R2 is 0.96, 0.92, 0.95, 0.90, and 0.94, respectively. The Dv and R2 values indicating that the simulated snowmelt runoff has a close agreement with the observed value. The simulated findings were also assessed under the different scenarios of climate change: a) increases in precipitation by +20 %, b) temperature rise of +2 °C, and c) temperature rise of +2 °C with a 20 % increase in snow cover. In scenario "b", the simulated results showed that runoff increased by 53 % in summer (April–September). In contrast, the projected increased discharge for scenarios "a" and "c" was 37 % and 67 %, respectively. In high elevation data-scarce mountain environments, the SRM is efficient in forecasting future water supplies due to the snowmelt runoff.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202103.0102.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Waste Management And Disposal Keywords: Al Zaytun, Climate change, Drought, Islamic perspective, Plant species, Reservoir
Online: 2 March 2021 (15:58:41 CET)
The drought is one of all phenomena at local to a global scale that caused climate change impacts, alongside it also the human activities related, which were deforested and land use changed that caused to ecological disturbance, which one is hydrological changes. Hence, it’s a lot of lost productivity, chiefly to farming land aspects and the other, so the land restoration by reforestation is needed in framework to water cycle (hydrology) process kindly. The aim of this research has identified and analyzed ecological restoration to ecosystem services, chiefly in wastewater management (treatment) to conservation, especially in Al Zaytun areas (Pesantren), so observing and in-depth individual interview (with some of personage and pesantren of boards) is one method that used to data collected, alongside land survey management to classified type development in Al Zaytun areas. The result of this research revealed that Al Zaytun successfully in water management to conservation by wastewater treated management by Eichhornia crassipes (Enceng gondok), afterward to the reservoir as water saved development. Those conservation types considered capability in reviving to ecological systems to ecosystem services increased kindly, alongside to land restoration by some of the plant species or trees to grow and developed in which Tectona grandis L. f is more dominantly and it's favorite because of investment economic that advantage based on ecological perspective. These were type management that did by Al Zaytun, alongside its able in coping to both drought and climate change impacts kindly and adaptively, and of course, it’s part of an obligation as the follower’s Islam religion in preserving and maintaining natural resources, chiefly to water resources.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201809.0164.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: Agricultural impacts, climate change impacts, integrated assessment model, CGE model
Online: 10 September 2018 (10:04:25 CEST)
Changes in agricultural yields due to climate change will affect land use, agricultural production volume, and food prices as well as macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP which is important as it enables one to compare the climate change impacts across multiple sectors. This study considered five key uncertainty factors and estimated macroeconomic impacts due to crop yield changes using a novel integrated assessment framework. The five factors are 1) land-use change (or yield aggregation method based on spatially-explicit information), 2) the amplitude of the CO2 fertilization effect, 3) the use of different climate models, 4) socioeconomic assumptions and 5) the level of mitigation stringency. We found that their global impacts on the macroeconomic indicator value were 0.02 - 0.06% of GDP in 2100. However, the impacts on the agricultural sector varied greatly by socioeconomic assumption. The relative contributions of these factors to the total uncertainty in the projected macroeconomic indicator value were greater in a pessimistic world scenario characterized by a large population increase and low income (0.6%) than in an optimistic scenario (0.00%).
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202011.0509.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Accounting And Taxation Keywords: Public Perception; Climate Change; Human Health; Bangladesh
Online: 19 November 2020 (11:50:37 CET)
The main purpose of this research is to analyze the perception of climate change impacts on human health in Bangladesh through data from nationality representative surveys conducted in some district of Bangladesh. In Bangladesh there have a few research has been conducted on public perceptions about the impact of climate change on human health. A structured questionnaire method was conducted, and data collected from 615 respondents. The findings of this study reveal that out of 615 respondents, 76.0% of the respondents replied positively while remaining 24.0%, almost one-fourth of total respondents, indicated that they have not heard the term climate change before. Knowledgeable in climate change, 92.5% of respondents agreed that climate change has an impact on human health while only 7.5% respondents disagreed with this statement. 90.5% of respondents argued that they are agreed with the opinion that climate change is a serious threat to human health.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201909.0320.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Geography, Planning And Development Keywords: water; agriculture; migration; caribbean sids; climate change
Online: 29 September 2019 (02:54:00 CEST)
Caribbean SIDS are among the most vulnerable to climate change which will have a disproportionate impact on local environments and economies. Whilst there is a growing literature on how Caribbean SIDS can adapt to become more resilient a question that has received little attention is with regard to migration as an unplanned response. It is recognised that events such as hurricanes and flooding can lead to internal relocation in the short term but societal responses to droughts through migration have not generally been investigated. This paper seeks to address this by considering the case of the island of Carriacou, part of the state of Grenada. Carriacou with its small population, limited land area and local economy, historically based on agriculture has had a high degree of migration. This is in part a response to limited economic opportunities. Environmental stress manifest through limited water availability, inappropriate land management and social conditions is likely to be exacerbated by climate change and variability. Resultant increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts, in the absence of proactive interventions, are likely to result in non-linear migration, both to Grenada itself and beyond.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201811.0387.v1
Subject: Business, Economics And Management, Econometrics And Statistics Keywords: climate change; soybean yields; technology; temperature; CO2
Online: 16 November 2018 (07:45:34 CET)
Soybean yields are often indicated as an interesting case of climate change mitigation due to the beneficial effects of CO2 fertilization. In this paper we econometrically study this effect using a time series model of yields in a multivariate framework for a main producer and exporter of this commodity, Argentina. We have to deal with the upward behavior of soybean yields trying to identify which variables are the long-run determinants responsible of its observed trend. With this aim we adopt a partial system approach to estimate subsets of long-run relationships due to climate, technological and economic factors. Using an automatic selection algorithm we evaluate encompassing of the different obtained equilibrium correction models. We found that only technological innovations due to new crop practices and the use of modified seeds explain soybean yield in the long run. Regarding short run determinants we found positive effects associated with the use of standard fertilizers and also from changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration which would suggest a mitigation effect from global warming. However, we also found negative climate effects from periods of droughts associated with La Niña episodes, high temperatures and extreme rainfall events during the growing season of the plant.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202305.0787.v1
Subject: Biology And Life Sciences, Life Sciences Keywords: entomophilous plants; phenophases; honeybee; climate change
Online: 11 May 2023 (04:47:30 CEST)
Changes in the dates of phenological phases of plants and insects reflect changes in climate. The aim of the study was to determine the phenological patterns and interrelationships of spring-flowering entomophilous plants (Corylus avellana L., Alnus incana Moench., Tussilago farfara L., Salix caprea L., Acer platanoides L., Taraxacum officinale L., Prunus L., Malus domestica Mill.) and the honey bee (Apis mellifera L.) in response to climate change. The research was carried out at Vokė Branch of the Institute of Agriculture, Lithuanian Research Centre for Agriculture and Forestry, using data from phenological observations during 1961–2020. The results of the studies showed that over a 60-year period, a trend towards earlier dates of all phenological events studied was observed. Significant and larger-scale changes occurred starting from the decade 1981–1990. Throughout the entire study period, with the exception of one decade, the dates of honeybee emergence on flowers correlated reliably with the dates of entomophilous plant phenophases. Due to the advance of plants phenophase dates the synchrony with honeybee emergence dates changes however, these changes had a positive effect on the foraging conditions of overwintering honeybees.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202204.0032.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: Great Filter; Climate Change; Earth; Humanity
Online: 6 April 2022 (07:51:30 CEST)
Climate change is the long-term shift in global weather patterns, largely caused by anthropogenic activity of greenhouse gas emissions. Global climate temperatures have unmistakably risen and naturally-occurring climate variability alone cannot account for this trend. Human activities are estimated to have caused about 1.0 °C of global warming above the pre-industrial baseline and if left unchecked, will continue to drastically damage the Earth and its inhabitants. Globally, natural disasters and subsequent economic losses have become increasingly impactful as a result of climate change. Both wildlife ecosystems and human habitats have been negatively impacted, from rising sea levels to alarming frequency of severe weather events around the world. Attempts towards alleviating the effects of global warming have often been at odds and remain divided among a multitude of strategies, reducing the overall effectiveness of these efforts. It is evident that collaborative action is required for avoiding the most severe consequences of climate change. This paper evaluates the main strategies (industrial/energy, political, economic, agricultural, atmospheric, geological, coastal, and social) towards both mitigating and adapting to climate change. As well, it provides an optimal combination of seven solutions which can be implemented simultaneously, working in tandem to limit and otherwise accommodate the harmful effects of climate change. Previous legislation and deployment techniques are also discussed as guides for future endeavors.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202307.0210.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Climate Change; SSPs scenarios; Water Management; Mining; Kazakhstan
Online: 4 July 2023 (11:40:39 CEST)
Climate change is a threat to mining and other industries, especially those involving water supply and management by inducing or amplifying some climatic parameters such as changes in precipitation regimes and temperature extremes. Using the latest NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 datasets, this study quantifies the level of climate change that may affect the development of two mine sites (Site1 and Site2) in northeast Kazakhstan. The study analyses the daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature a of a number of global circulation models (GCM) over three future time periods, 2040s, 2060s and 2080s, under two shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios, SSP245 and SSP585, against the baseline period 1981- 2014. The analyses revealed that: (1) Both maximum and minimum temperature will increase under both SSP in those time periods, with the rate of change for minimum temperature being higher than maximum temperature. (2) The mean annual precipitation will increase by an average rate of 7% and 10.5% in 2040s for SSP245 and 17.5% and 7.5% for SSP585 in 2080s at Site1 and Site2, respectively. It is also observed that summer months will experience drier condition whilst all other months will increase in precipitation. (3) The values of 24-hour precipitation with 10-year return period will also increase under both SSP scenarios and future time periods for most of the studied GCM and at both mine sites. These predicted changes should be considered as design criteria adjustments for project water supply and water management structures.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202310.1228.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: Rainfall; Temperature; Potential evapotranspiration; Soil water content; Climate Projection
Online: 19 October 2023 (07:02:24 CEST)
In Ethiopia, climate change risks are anticipated to have significant consequences for agriculture and food security. This study investigated the past (1981-2010) and the future (2041-2070) climate change trends and their influence on crop length of growing seasons in North-Western (NW) Ethiopian highlands. Climate data were obtained from National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia and the most valid and high resolution CMIP5 rcp6 (Coupled models Intercomparison Project representative concentration path six) model data were extracted and applied for the analysis purpose. Standard statistical methods are then applied to compute soil water content as well as to evaluate climate variability and trends and their impact on crop Length of Growing Season (LGS). Maximum temperature (tasmax) and minimum temperature (tasmin) inter-annual variability anomalies show the region has experienced coolest years than hottest years during the past. However, in the future the coolest years will highly decrease by -1.2oC while the hottest years increase by +1.3oC. During the major rainfall season (JJAS), the area has received an adequate amount of rainfall in the past and is very likely to get similar rainfall in the future. Whereas the February to May (FMAM) season assists only for early planting and October to January (ONDJ) season for lengthen growing season of JJAS if properly utilized. Otherwise, the season will have the possibility to destroy crops before and during the harvesting time. The soil water content change in the future remains close to past condition, The length of growing seasons has less variable onset and cessation dates while the projected length of growing period (LGP) 174 to 177 days will be suitable for short, long cycle crops and double cropping that could benefit crop production yield of NW-Ethiopian highlands in the future.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201902.0154.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Environmental Science Keywords: Access, availability, climate change, deforestation, drought, food security, SSA
Online: 18 February 2019 (10:16:03 CET)
Like the rest of the globe, Forests in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) continue to play a vital role when it comes to food security from the perspective of forest function of climate regulation, water provision, and soil protection. Nevertheless, most of the recent deforestation practices in various countries indicate that the region could face severe food insecurity in the near future since there are already signs of shortage in food production. This study, therefore, examines deforestation, climate change, and food security nexus in SSA while exploring a wide range of examples of food insecurity in the region. Content analysis and a synthetic literature study were conducted using data from scientific data banks. The study links deforestation, climate change to food security while citing examples from various SSA countries such as Cameroon, Nigeria, Kenya to mention but a few. More so, the study investigates how deforestation contributes to climate change, and how such change directly affects agricultural output and hence food security. Lastly, the study discusses the various implication of deforestation in relation to food security.
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science And Meteorology Keywords: adaptation; mitigation; climate change; ecosystems; nature; restoration
Online: 24 November 2019 (13:05:56 CET)
There is growing awareness that “Nature-based Solutions” (NbS) can help to protect us from climate change impacts whilst slowing further warming, supporting biodiversity and securing ecosystem services. However, the potential of NbS to provide the intended benefits has not been rigorously assessed. There are concerns over their reliability and cost-effectiveness compared to engineered alternatives, and their resilience to climate change. Trade-offs can arise if climate mitigation policy encourages NbS with low biodiversity value, such as afforestation with non-native monocultures. This can result in maladaptation, especially in a rapidly changing world where biodiversity-based resilience and multifunctional landscapes are key. Here we highlight the rise of NbS in climate policy—focussing on their potential for climate change adaptation as well as mitigation—and discuss barriers to their evidence-based implementation. We outline the major financial and governance challenges to implementing NbS at scale, highlighting avenues for further research. As climate policy turns increasingly towards greenhouse gas removal approaches such as afforestation, we stress the urgent need for natural and social scientists to engage with policymakers. They must ensure that NbS can achieve their potential to tackle both the climate and biodiversity crisis while also contributing to sustainable development. This will require systemic change in the way we conduct research and run our institutions.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints201808.0460.v1
Subject: Environmental And Earth Sciences, Ecology Keywords: Climate Change; Ecosystem Services; Impact; adaptation; Nepal
Online: 27 August 2018 (12:55:03 CEST)
Ecosystem services (ES) are increasingly recognized as a means to adapt to the ongoing impact of climate change and associated impacts. However, these ES itself are facing adverse impact of climate change especially in developing countries where most of the people are dependent on these services for their livelihood. Very little is known about the relationship between the climate change and ES. Here we assess the impact of climate change on ecosystem services in ES rich landscape of Panchase Mountain Ecological Region of western Nepal. The study area was divided into three ecoregions from lowland through midland to the upland region. Focus group discussion, and key informant interview were used to elicit the required data for the study, which was further supported by transect walk, field observation and secondary source of information. Major impacts of climate change were observed are, reduced availability of water, reduced food production, forest ecosystem, shifting species composition in forest ecosystem, farmland abandonment, and their associated ecosystem services. We recommend to initiate the management actions to help ES adapt to climate change, and which in return could support the ecosystem itself and people dependent on the ES in adaptation to climate change by providing various goods and services.