The present cultivated enset clonal landraces in Ethiopia originated from few wild progenitors. However, enset has a mixed mode of reproduction in which, the wild enset reproduces sexually through seeds, while cultivated enset is generally propagated vegetatively. The objective of this study was to understand the genetic structures of enset cultivars and estimate their genetic variability by evaluating the morphological data generated from progenies of cultivated and wild enset clones. Hence, seeds collected from six cultivated and four wild enset genotypes were used for this study. Data on four qualitative and six quantitative morphological traits were recorded from the progenies of the 10 enset genotypes. Progenies of seven enset genotypes segregated with 3:1 genetic ratio while progenies of the remaining genotypes segregated differently for the qualitative traits considered. With regard to the quantitative traits, the progenies of the 10 enset genotypes differed significantly for five of the six traits except pseudostem length. Generally the cultivated clones performed better than the wild types. This study demonstrated the possibility of creating genetic variation through selfing of the existing clones of enset for traits of interest and makes improvements either through selection or crossing the elite types to develop novel cultivar

With the use of linear regression modeling, this study sought to forecast and analyze rainfall patterns in Ethiopia. The dataset included historical rainfall data as well as pertinent independent variables. The R-squared score and mean squared error (MSE) were used to assess the effectiveness of the linear regression model. The results showed that the model's ability to forecast and analyze rainfall patterns was not very good. Only around 5.3% of the variance in rainfall could be explained by the chosen independent variables, according to the R-squared score of 0.053. This low number indicated that there was little correlation between the selected variables and rainfall, and that a sizable percentage of the variation in the dependent variable was not captured by the model. The model's accuracy in forecasting rainfall was shown to be quite low by the MSE error, with significant squared discrepancies between the expected and actual amounts. These results support the notion that the linear regression model as it is now designed is not appropriate for studying or forecasting Ethiopia's rainfall patterns. Alternative modeling approaches, the inclusion of other pertinent factors, and the assurance of the availability of high-quality data that faithfully captures the intricate dynamics of rainfall in the area all require more investigation.

To study the influence of Latin dance and Tai Chi on knee joint proprioception and balance. Method: All experiments were performed in the Beijing Normal University School of Physical Education and Sport Biomechanics Laboratory. An isokinetic test system (Biodex system 4, BS4) and a balance testing system (Biodex Balance System, BBS)from the United States Biodex medical system were used to test related indexes. Results: In the LOS test, the overall score of Latin group is much better than sedentary group. In the ASL test, Latin group have a better balance ability in anterior and posterior direction and overall score than sedentary group(p＜0.05); TAI CHI group have a better balance ability than sedentary group in anterior and posterior direction(p＜0.05)and right and left direction (p＜0.01). When the knee joint was at 15, 30, and 45degree positions, the Tai Chi exercise group was much better than sedentary group (P < 0.05), and the 45 degree position in the Tai Chi group was much better than that in the Latin dance group (P < 0.01).When the knee joint was at the 30 degree position, the quadriceps force sense was significantly better in the Tai Chi group than in the Latin dance and sedentary groups. In a test of the four angles, the hamstring force sense in the Tai Chi exercise group was obviously better than that in the sedentary group (P < 0.05); at the 15 degree position, the Tai Chi group was significantly better than the Latin group (P < 0.05); and at 30 degree position, the hamstring force sense of the Latin group was obviously better than that of the sedentary group (P < 0.05).

In this research paper, we implement the theory of the primorial function, to develop the Supremum and Infimum bounds for the sum of (log(p))². There are, however, considerable computational difficulties related to these bounds. Therefore, from a pragmatic point of view, a set of Upper and Lower bounds had been developed to bypass this issue. Despite the increased estimation error, the Upper and Lower bounds are still considered sufficiently accurate, while facilitating an easy and fast computation of the estimate of the sum.

Background: Physical activity (PA) has paramount importance for achieving good health and an active lifestyle among university students. Quality physical education (QPE) program ensures the attainment of sustainability in PA. Motivation can be considered a critical factor in promoting PA in students. However, motivation alone cannot bring inclusivity unless quality aspects are not being incorporated thoughtfully into physical education (PE) programs. Aims: As such this study aimed at examining three research questions: i) do the motive of PA participation can be enhanced through the quality provision of PE programs in university settings ii) does the quality provision of PE help promote sustainable PA among adolescents? and iii) whether or not this carry-over process is influenced by gender. Methods: This cross-sectional study recruited N = 610 (male = 467) & female = 143) university students. Students who studied PE as one of their course subjects were only included in this study. They participated in > 27 different sports and had a mean age of 20.76 (SD = 3.47) years and a mean of 4.70 (SD = 4.93) years of athletic experience. Descriptive (mean, SD) statistics, Pearson’s correlation, and regression analysis were used to meet the objectives. To examine the variables’ differences in gender, data were then computed using a 2 (Gender) by 2 (Type of Sport: Individual vs. Team) MANCOVA, with the covariate being age. Results: The factors provided sound reliability scores and highlighted positive correlations between QPE and exercise needs satisfaction. However, the factors lacked establishing correlations with PA. The perceived competence for exercise needs satisfaction reported differences in sexes, with the male being scored higher. Furthermore, QPE did not show any significant differences in gender. In comparison to females, males showed higher mean scores in the PA. Conclusion: The provision of QPE is identified as a pivotal factor in determining the competence of exercise satisfaction among students. QPE provision was adequate in the university, however, it could not promote PA among females as expected.

Chi-squared automatic interaction detector (CHAID) algorithm is considered to be one of the mostly used supervised learning methods as it is adaptable to solving any kind of problem at hand. We have been starkly aware of CHAID maps non-linear relationships quite well, and it can empower predictive models with stability. But we don’t know how high its accuracy is precisely. To find out the perfect scope CHAID algorithm fits into, this paper presents the analysis of the accuracy of the CHAID algorithm. We introduce the causes, applicable conditions and application scope of CHAID algorithm at first, and then highlight the difference of branching principal between the CHAID algorithm and several other common decision tree algorithms, which is our first step towards basic analysis on CHAID algorithm. We next employee an actual branching case to help us understand CHAID algorithm better. Specifically, we use vehicle customer satisfaction data to compare multiple decision tree algorithms, and cite some factors that affecting the accuracy and some corresponding countermeasures which are more conducive to us to obtain accurate results. The results show that CHAID can analyze the data very well, and detect the significantly correlated factors surely. In this paper, we learn the clear information required to understand CHAID algorithm, thereby make better choices when we need to use decision tree algorithms.

In this paper, we use the Principal Components Logistic Regression as a technique to reduce the variables being used in Credit Scoring Modeling. Specifically, we construct two models in which greek enterprises are classified, through their credit behavior and we evaluate them, relying on real data. In general, we propose a general way to use PC Regression, in case that we have high correlations and categorical variables in the sample.

Climate and land use changes are major factors affecting runoff in regional basins. Understanding variation by considering interactions among hydrological components is an important process for water resource management. This study aimed to assess the variation of future runoff in the Upper Chi Basin, Northeastern Thailand. QSWAT hydrological model was integrated to 3 CMIP6 GCMs including ACCESS-CM2, MIROC6, and MPI-ESM1-2-LR under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios during 2023 – 2100. Land Change Modeler (LCM) was also used for future land use simulation. The results revealed that future average of long-term precipitation and temperature tended to increase while forest land tended to decrease and be replaced by sugarcane plantations. The accuracy assessment of baseline year runoff calculation by QSWAT during 1997 – 2022 showed acceptable result as can be seen from R2, NSE, RSR, and PBIAS indices. This result could lead to temporal and spatial simulation of future runoff. Likewise, runoff of 2 SSPs scenarios tended to increase consecutively, especially in SSP585 scenario. In addition, in case of long-term spatial changes in the subbasins scale, over 90% of the area, from upstream to outlet point, tended to get higher due to 2 major factors including future increased precipitation and changes in cultivation, which would be influential to groundwater and interflow components respectively. Methodology and result of this study can be useful to stakeholders in understanding changes in hydrological system so that they can apply it to develop a strategy for water resource management and handling factors affecting different dimensions properly and sustainably.

To detect aberrant human behaviors from large volume of passive data collected by smartphones in real time, we propose an online anomaly detection method using Hotelling’s T-squared test. The test statistic is a weighted average, with more weight on the between-individual component when there are little data available for the individual and more weight on the within-individual component when the data are adequate. The algorithm takes only O(1) run time in each update and the required memory usage is fixed after a pre-specified number of updates. The performance of the proposed method, in terms of accuracy, sensitivity and specificity, is consistently better than or equal to the offline method that it builds upon depending on the sample size of the individual data.

Diversified techniques have been applied in many research papers for the optimization of rehabilitation robotic movements in order to maintain smoothness and accuracy. Smooth and precise control is needed necessarily for upper limb rehabilitation robotic applications having five degree of freedom. The preferred parameters which are used for the controlling were validated by mathematical model and these tuning parameters were optimized. Designing optimization algorithms to control complex physical robots has been a challenging task. In this study, a number of optimization techniques will be analyzed to determine the optimal parameters of a PID controller with a dynamic model of the upper limb rehabilitation system. For determining optimal control parameters for PID, there exists a number of tuning methods such as Zeigler Nichols and fuzzy logic which are classical methods. Swarm intelligence-based optimization algorithms are inspired by the behaviors of living things in nature. Several researchers have reported the optimal design of PID controller parameters using optimization techniques. The proposed control technique has been implemented on a 5-DOF RAX hardware and before any clinical trials, six healthy subjects went for trials under strict protocol. It has been discovered that the proposed control technique rejects the external unwanted disturbances as well as keeps the system stable under extreme perturbed and harsh conditions. In this research paper mathematical models have been validated to determine the PID parameters for the optimization. The comparative study is carried out with four different cost functions since a well-designed objective function leads to better performance of the system and indicates control design expectations. These objective functions are an integral squared error (ISE) and integral absolute error (IAE). In this research work, the effects of different cost functions on optimization techniques for controller parameters were analyzed. The performance of the controller with different cost functions has examined for robustness analysis. The cost function of particle swarm optimization, Firefly, Ant Bee Colony and Ant Colony optimization were developed for the better optimization results.

This article presents six probability distributions from the Gamma family with three parameters, for the flood frequency analysis in hydrology. The choice of the Gamma family of statistical dis-tributions was driven by its frequent use in hydrology. In the Faculty of Hydrotechnics, the im-provement of the estimation of maximum flows and including the methodological bases for the realization of a regionalization study with the linear moments method with the corrected pa-rameters was researched, being an element of novelty. The linear moments method is better than MOM because it avoids the choice of skewness depending on the origin of the flows, practiced in Romania. The L-moments method conforms to the current trend for estimating the parameters of statistical distributions. Observed data from hydrometric stations are of relatively short length, so the statistical parameters that characterize them are of a sample that requires correction. The correction of the statistical parameters is proposed, using the method of least squares based on the inverse functions of the statistical distributions expressed with the frequency factor for L-moments. All the necessary elements for their use are presented like, quantile functions, the exact and ap-proximate relations for estimating parameters and frequency factors. A flood frequency analysis case study was carried out for the Ialomita river, to verify the proposed methodology. The per-formance of this distributions is evaluated using Kiling-Gupta and Nash-Sutcliff coefficients.

Due to the accelerated development of the offshore method of oil production in recent decades, especially in the Arctic region, the risks of crude oil pollution of the waters of the World Ocean are inevitably increasing. These oil spills during the exploitation of shelf deposits, transportation of oil from production sites and other anthropogenic impacts have a devastating impact on the marine biosphere, economy and life of coastal regions. For operative monitoring of water surface and fixation of oil spills it is necessary to use modern, effective and reliable methods, remote monitoring tools. One of such methods is radar. This article deals with increasing the efficiency of the radar method of water surface monitoring by means of constructive modification of the radar antenna array and changing the shape of the radio signal. As a result of the literature review, theoretical analysis of radar and conducted mathematical modeling it is substantiated the increase of radar monitoring efficiency by using phased active antenna array and construction of the cosecant-squared pattern diagram of the radio signal.

The power function distribution is a flexible waiting time model that may provide better fit for some failure data. This paper presents the comparison of the maximum likelihood estimates and the Bayes estimates of two-parameter power function distribution. The Bayes estimates are obtained, using conjugate priors, under five loss functions consist of square error, precautionary, weighted, LINEX and DeGroot loss function. The Gibbs sampling algorithm is proposed to generate samples from posterior distributions and in result the Bayes estimates are computed. The comparison of the maximum likelihood estimates and the Bayes estimates are done through the root mean squared errors. One real-life data set is analyzed to illustrate the evaluation of proposed methods of estimation. Finally, results from the simulation are discussed to assess the performance behavior of the maximum likelihood estimates and the Bayes estimates.

Electrical contractors have experienced a rise in occupational fatalities in recent years. In 2017, electrical contractors also had the second highest number of non-fatal injuries among specialty trade contractors. Identifying statistically significant dependencies between these catastrophic outcomes and a handful of well-defined contributing factors in construction accidents offers a first step in mitigating the risks of construction accidents in this trade. Therefore, this study used methodologies of descriptive and quantitative statistics to identify the contributing factors most affecting occupational accident outcomes among electrical contracting enterprises, given an accident occurred. Accident reports were collected from the Occupational Safety and Health Administration’s fatality and catastrophe database. To ensure the reliability of the data, the team manually codified more than 600 incidents through a comprehensive content analysis using injury-classification standards. Inclusive of both fatal and non-fatal injuries, the results showed that most accidents happened in nonresidential buildings, new construction, and small projects (i.e., $50,000 or less). The main source of injuries manifested in parts and materials (46%), followed by tools, instruments, and equipment (19%), and structure and surfaces (16%). The most frequent types of injuries were fractures (31%), electrocutions (27%), and electrical burns (14%); the main injured body parts were upper extremities (25%), head (23%), and body system (18%). Among non-fatal cases, falls (37%), exposure to electricity (36%), and contact with objects (19%) caused most injuries; among fatal cases, exposure to electricity was the leading cause of death (50%), followed by falls (28%) and contact with objects (19%). The analysis also investigated the impact of several accident factors on the degree of injuries and found significant effects from such factors such as project type, source of injury, cause of injuries, injured part of body, nature of injury, and event type. In other words, the statistical probability of a fatal accident—given an accident occurrence—changes significantly based on the degree of these factors. Beyond these outcomes, the described content-analysis methodology contributes to the accident-analysis body of knowledge by providing a framework for codifying data from accident reports to facilitate future analysis and modeling attempts (e.g., developing logistic regression models) to subsequently mitigate more injuries in other fields.

Australia is a unique continent surrounded by the ocean and the majority of catchments flow to the coast. Some of these catchments are gauged and others are ungauged. There are 405 gauged catchments covering 2,549,000 km2 across the coastal regions of 12 drainage divisions in Australia. Whereas there are 771 catchments conceptualised as ungauged covering additional 835,000 km2. The mean annual rainfall and PET and its spatial and temporal distribution vary significantly from one drainage division to another. We developed a continuous daily streamflow time series of all gauged and ungauged catchments from 1993 onwards. We applied the GR4J lumped conceptual model to these catchments. The performance of gauged catchments was analysed through (i) visual inspection of daily hydrographs, flow duration curves and daily scatter plots, and (ii) performance metrics including NSE and PBias. Based on the NSE and PBias, performance ratings of 80% and 96% of the models respectively were found 'good'. There was no relationship found between the catchment area and model performance. The ungauged catchments were divided into four categories based on distance from potential donor catchments where observed data are available for GR4J model calibration, and Köppen climate zone. The total ungauged catchments represent 24.7% of the total drainage division areas. The streamflow from ungauged catchments was estimated using GR4J model based on the parameters of their donor catchments. Overall, runoff ratios from ungauged catchments were found to be higher compared to their donor gauged catchments, likely driven by their higher rainfall and less PET. This tendency was particularly evident in two drainage divisions – the Carpentaria Coast (CC) and Tanami-Timor Sea Coast (TTS) where ungauged areas comprised 51% and 43% respectively. The mean gauged annual streamflow varied significantly across drainage divisions – 230 GL from South Australian Gulf (SAG) to 146,150 GL in TTS. The streamflow from all ungauged catchments was estimated at 232,200 GL per year. Overall, the average streamflow from all drainage divisions, including gauged and ungauged areas, across the coastal regions of Australia was estimated at 419,950 GL per year. This nationwide estimate of streamflow dataset could potentially enhance our understanding of coastal processes and improvements of marine modelling systems and tools.

Supervised land-use/land-cover (LULC) classifications are typically conducted using class assignment rules derived from a set of multiclass training samples. Consequently, classification accuracy varies with the training data set and is thus associated with uncertainty. In this study, we propose a bootstrap resampling and reclassification approach that can be applied for assessing not only the uncertainty in classification results of the bootstrap-training data sets, but also the classification uncertainty of individual pixels in the study area. Two measures of pixel-specific classification uncertainty, namely the maximum class probability and Shannon entropy, were derived from the class probability vector of individual pixels and used for the identification of unclassified pixels. Unclassified pixels that are identified using the traditional chi-square threshold technique represent outliers of individual LULC classes, but they are not necessarily associated with higher classification uncertainty. By contrast, unclassified pixels identified using the equal-likelihood technique are associated with higher classification uncertainty and they mostly occur on or near the borders of different land-cover.

Universal gravitation is investigated with principles of foundational classical (Newtonian) physics. The results reveal gravitation an atomic field action; hence, Newton’s law, although absolutely valid, unavoidably misleads in creating the impression of matter rather than waveform action. Six force constants fully define gravitation: (i) a waveform torque field ; (ii) an expansion force field ; (iii) a centripetal force field ; (iv) a matter-wave torque field (the force fields , and constitute gravitational inertial rest frame); (v) a Galilean acceleration field and (vi) nuclear inverse mass-squared centripetal force constant The inertial rest frame force constants sum up to give observational G = 2.266 + 2.61 + 2.61cos46^o) x 10^-11 = 6.689 x 10^-11 m³ kg^-1 s^-2. Notably, the procedure is able to account also for observational inclination of galaxies and their aligned conjunctions. An attempt is made to account for angular momentum quantization and rectilinear, parabolic or elliptic profile of objects in gravitational acceleration. Same quantitative expression, , defines the photon and gravitation thus uniquely unifying gravitation, electricity and magnetism; furthermore, the expression reveals the photon packed with tremendous energy amounting to some . It is argued that: (i) neither mass nor gravitation curves spacetime; (ii) the principles that sustain cosmic time-scale dynamic equilibrium, scale invariance and inertia are incompatible with quantum gravitation; and (iii) the cosmic vacuum field comprises gravitational (photonic) waves, hence the interferometer likely measures shock waves.

The article considers a way to compare large bulks of experimental data with theoretical calculations, in which the quality of theoretical models is clearly demonstrated graphically. Published theoretical data of the three-fluid dynamic model (3FD) applied to the experimental data from heavy-ion collisions at the energy range \sqrt{s_{NN}} = 2.7 - 63 GeV are used as example of application of the developed methodology. When analyzing the results, the quantum nature of the fireball, created at heavy ion collisions, was taken into account.

Ridge regression is one of the most popular shrinkage estimation methods for linear models. Ridge regression effectively estimates regression coefficients in the presence of high-dimensional regressors. Recently, a generalized ridge estimator was suggested by generalizing the uniform shrinkage of ridge regression to the non-uniform shrinkage, which was shown to perform well under sparse and high-dimensional linear models. In this paper, we introduce our newly developed R package “g.ridge” (the first version published on 2023-12-07 at https://cran.r-project.org/package=g.ridge) that implements both the ridge estimator and generalized ridge estimators. The package equips with the generalized cross-validation for automatic estimation of shrinkage parameters. The package also includes a convenient tool for generating a design matrix. By simulations, we test the performance of the R package under sparse and high-dimensional settings with the normal and skew-normal error distributions. From the simulation results, we conclude that the generalized ridge estimator is superior to the benchmark ridge estimator based on “glmnet”, and hence, it can be the most recommended estimator under sparse and high-dimensional models. We demonstrate the package using the intracerebral hemorrhage data.

Sums of M consecutive squared integers (a+i)^2 equaling squared integers (for a<=1, 0<= i<= M-1) yield remarkable regular linear features when plotting values of M in function of a. These features correspond to groupings of pairs of a values for successive same values of M around straight lines of equation mu*M = 2a and are characterized in this paper for rational values of mu.

Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), the most crowded city and economic hub of Viet Nam, has been experiencing land subsidence over the past decades. This effort aims to contribute the spatial distribution of subsidence in HCMC in its horizontal and vertical components using synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR) time series. To this purpose, an advanced Persistent Scatterers and Distributed Scatterers (PSDS) InSAR technique was applied to two European Space Agency (ESA) Sentinel-1 datasets consisting of 96 ascending and 202 descending images, acquired from 2014 to 2020 over the HCMC area. A time series of 33 COSMO-SkyMed ascending images was also used for comparison. The combination of ascending and descending satellite passes is used to decompose the light of sight velocities into horizontal east-west and vertical components. Taking into account the presence of east-west horizontal motion, our findings indicate that the accuracy of the decomposed vertical velocity can be improved by up to 3 mm/year for Sentinel-1 data. The obtained results revealed that subsidence is most pronounced in the areas along the Sai Gon River, in the northwest-southeast axis, and in the southwest of the city, with a maximum value of 80 mm/yr, which is in accordance with the findings of the literature. The amplitude of east-west horizontal velocities is relatively small and large-scale eastward movement can be observed in the west of the city at a rate of 3-5 mm/yr. This confirmed that the displacement in Ho Chi Minh City area is mainly vertical downward. Together, these results reinforced the remarkable suitability of ESA's SAR Sentinel-1 for subsidence applications, even for non-European countries such as Vietnam and Southeast Asia.

This paper presents the methods of estimating the mean square error of hydrological forecasts, allowing for assessment of their practical applicability. Depending upon the amount and composition of available hydrometeorological data, an appropriate method for forecast error estimation is chosen. A system of statistical tests for comparison of different forecasting methods for the same hydrologic characteristic with the same lead time is presented. These tests allow for choosing an optimal and most accurate forecasting method. Hydrological forecasting method efficiency estimation is based on comparing the forecast error with climatology or inertial (persistence) forecast error using presented tests.

In previous studies we found that generalized functions can be smooth, discrete, periodic or discrete periodic and they can either be local or global and they are regular or generalized functions. We also saw that these properties were related to Poisson’s summation formula on one hand and to Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle on the other. In this paper, we interlink these studies and show that scalars (real or complex numbers) considered as trivial functions are discrete and periodic, local and global as well as regular and generalized, simultaneously. However, this is also a paradox because it means that Dirac’s δ and 1 (its Fourier transform) coincide. They both are unity. We show that δ and 1 coincide in the sense of scalars (real or complex numbers) but they differ in the sense of (generalized) functions. This result can moreover be related to Max Born’s principle of reciprocity. It also answers an open question in present-day quantum mechanics because it means that the Dirac delta squared is simply delta.

In this paper, the problem of predicting future failure times based on a jointly type-II censored sample from k exponential populations is considered. The Bayesian prediction intervals and point predictors were then obtained. Generalized Bayes is a Bayesian study based on a learning-rate parameter. This study investigated the effects of the learning rate parameters on the prediction results. The loss functions of squared error, Linex, and general entropy were used as point predictors. Monte Carlo simulations were performed to show the effectiveness of the learning rate parameter in improving the results of prediction intervals and point predictors.

Forest fires though part of a natural forest renewal process, when frequent and assuming large-scale proportions have detrimental impacts on biodiversity, agroforestry systems, soil erosion, air and water quality, infrastructures, and economy. Portugal (PT) endures extreme forest fires, with a record of burned area in 2017. These extreme wildfire events (EWE) concentrated in few days but with high burned areas, are among other factors, linked to severe fire weather conditions. In this study a comparison between several fire danger indices is performed for a reference period 2001‒2021 and 2017 (May‒October) for the Fire Weather Index (FWI), Continuous Haines Index (CHI), Keetch-Byram drought index (KBDI), Burning Index (BI) and Fire Danger index (FDI). A daily analysis for the so-called Pedrogão Grande wildfire (June 17th) and the October major fires (October 15th) included the Spread Component (SP) and Ignition Component (IC). Results revealed high above average values for all indices for 2017 in comparison with 2001‒2021 particularly, for October. High statistically significant monthly correlations between FWI, FDI and BI were found, along with lower between FWI and CHI. These correlations are depicted in the spatial patterns between FWI and FDI for the two EWE. The spatial distribution of FDI, SC and IC had the best performance in capturing the locations of the occurrence of the two EWEs’. The outcomes allowed to conclude, that since fire danger depends on several factors a multi-index’s diagnosis is highly relevant, though calibration and scale adjustment are needed for PT. The implementation of a Multi-index’s Prediction System should be able to further enhance the ability of tracking and forecast unique EWE, since the shortcomings of some indices are compensated by the information retrieved by others as shown in this study. Overall, a new forecast system can help ensuring the development of appropriate spatial preparedness plans, proactive responses by the civil protection regarding firefighter’s management, suppression efforts to minimize the detrimental impacts of wildfires in Portugal.

Pavement friction plays a crucial role in ensuring the safety of road networks. Accurately assessing friction levels is vital for effective pavement maintenance and management strategies employed by state highway agencies. Traditionally, friction evaluations have been conducted on a case-by-case basis, focusing on specific road sections. However, this approach fails to provide a comprehensive assessment of friction conditions across the entire road network. This paper introduces a hybrid clustering algorithm, namely the combination of density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) and Gaussian mixture model (GMM), to perform pavement friction performance rating across a statewide road network. A large, safety-oriented dataset is first generated by integrating network friction and vehicle crash data based on the attributes contributing possibly to friction related crashes. One-, two-, and multi-dimensional clustering analyses, respectively, are then performed to rate pavement friction. The Chi-square test is further employed to validate and identify the practical ratings. It is shown that by effectively capturing the hidden, intricate patterns within the integrated, complex dataset and prioritizing friction-related safety attributes, the hybrid clustering algorithm can produce pavement friction ratings that align effectively with the current practices of the Indiana Department of Transportation (INDOT) in friction management.

The aim of this study is to obtain the Bayes estimators and the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) for the unknown parameters of the Rayleigh Weibull (RW) distribution based on progres-sive type-II censored samples. The approximate Bayes estimators are calculated using the idea of Lindley and Tierney-Kadane's approximation method under the squared-error loss function when the Bayes estimators are not handed in explicit forms. In this study, the approximate Bayes esti-mates are compared with the maximum likelihood estimates in the aspect of the estimated risks (ERs) using Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, the coverage probabilities of the parametric bootstrap estimates are calculated. Real lifetime data sets belonging to the cancer types as bladder cancer, head and neck cancer, and leukemia are used to illustrate the emprical results belonging to the approximate Bayes estimates, the maximum likelihood estimates, and the parametric bootstrap intervals.

In the face of the upcoming 30th anniversary of econophysics, we review our contributions and other related works on the modeling of the long–range memory phenomenon in physical, economic, and other social complex systems. Our group has shown that the long–range memory phenomenon can be reproduced using various Markov processes, such as point processes, stochastic differential equations and agent–based models. Reproduced well enough to match other statistical properties of the financial markets, such as return and trading activity distributions and first–passage time distributions. Research has lead us to question whether the observed long–range memory is a result of actual long–range memory process or just a consequence of non–linearity of Markov processes. As our most recent result we discuss the long–range memory of the order flow data in the financial markets and other social systems from the perspective of the fractional Lèvy stable motion. We test widely used long-range memory estimators on discrete fractional Lèvy stable motion represented by the ARFIMA sample series. Our newly obtained results seem indicate that new estimators of self–similarity and long–range memory for analyzing systems with non–Gaussian distributions have to be developed.

Goals: To use visual logistics for interpreting COVID-19 molecular and rapid antigen test (RAgT) performance, determine prevalence boundaries where risk exceeds expectations, and evaluate benefits of recursive testing along home, community, and emergency spatial care paths. Methods: Mathematica/open access software helped graph relationships, compare performance patterns, and perform recursive computations. Results: Tiered sensitivity/specificity comprise: T1) 90%/95%; T2) 95%/97.5%; and T3) 100%/≥99%, respectively. In emergency medicine, median RAgT performance peaks at 13.2% prevalence, then falls below T1, generating risky prevalence boundaries. RAgTs in pediatric ERs/EDs parallel this pattern with asymptomatic worse than symptomatic performance. In communities, RAgTs display large uncertainty with median prevalence boundary of 14.8% for 1/20 missed diagnoses, and at prevalence >33.3-36.9% risk 10% false omissions for symptomatic subjects. Recursive testing improves home RAgT performance. Home molecular tests elevate performance above T1, but lack adequate validation. Conclusions: Widespread RAgT availability encourages self-testing. Asymptomatic RAgT and PCR-based saliva testing present the highest chance of missed diagnoses. Home testing twice, once just before mingling, and molecular-based self-testing help avoid false omissions. Community and ER/ED RAgTs can identify contagiousness in low prevalence (<22%). Real-world trials of performance, cost-effectiveness, and public health impact could identify home molecular diagnostics as the optimal diagnostic portal.