In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Philippines placed the majority of the country under enhanced community quarantine, restricting the movement of most of its 100 million plus population. These aggressive measures were initiated on March 15, 2020 and intensified on March 17. According to official data, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases has exponentially increased during this period, but it is important to note that the number of patients tested also substantially increased during the same period. It is not conclusive that widespread transmission of COVID-19 only started in March and our analysis suggests that community transmission was happening earlier. In discussing extended quarantine measures, it is important to properly understand the trends and recognize the limitations of the data. The unintended consequences on the population, especially in lower-middle income countries with fragile health systems like the Philippines, must be carefully considered.

Setting A high proportion of notified tuberculosis cases in the Philippines are clinically diagnosed (63%) as opposed to bacteriologically confirmed. Better understanding of this phenomenon is required to improve tuberculosis control. Objectives To determine the percentage of Smear Negative Presumptive Tuberculosis patients that would be diagnosed by GeneXpert; compare clinical characteristics of patients diagnosed as tuberculosis cases; and review the impact that the current single government physician and a reconstituted Tuberculosis Diagnostic committee (Expert Panel) may have on tuberculosis over-diagnosis. Design This is a cross-sectional study of 152 patients 15-85 years old with two negative Direct Sputum Smear Microscopy results, with abnormal chest X-ray who underwent GeneXpert testing and review by an Expert Panel. Results 31% (48/152) of the sample were Xpert positive. 93% (97/104) of GeneXpert negatives were clinically diagnosed by a Single Physician. Typical symptoms and X-ray findings were higher in bacteriologically confirmed tuberculosis. When compared to GeneXpert results, the Expert panel’s sensitivity for active tuberculosis was high (97.5%, 39/40) but specificity was low (40.2%, 35/87). Conclusion Using the GeneXpert would increase the level of bacteriologically confirmed tuberculosis substantially among presumptive Tuberculosis. An Expert panel will greatly reduce over-diagnosis usually seen when a decision is made by a Single Physician.