ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0162.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Finance Keywords: COVID-19, Cryptocurrency Return, Risk, Transaction Volume
Online: 8 August 2022 (13:48:44 CEST)
Cryptocurrencies are now the most popular investment instruments among millenials. Crypto offers great returns in a short period of time. Prior to COVID-19, Crypto experienced significant price fluctuations accompanied by an increase in the number of high transaction volumes. This situation was disrupted by the presence of the COVID-19 which made the world economy devastated, marked by the decline of stock prices in the world, especially in Indonesia. A paired test was conducted in this study to compare the state of Crypto before and during COVID-19 with the variables of Risk, Transaction Volume, Return, and Sharpe Performance. The results showed that there was a significant difference in the variables of Transaction Volume and Return. However, there was no significant difference in the Risk and Sharpe performance before and during COVID-19. This study shows that despite the COVID-19 pandemic, the enthusiasm of investors who transact crypto assets is not affected and they still get returns in accordance with the investments made. The high risk will be followed by a high standard deviation, so that the Sharpe Performance is small. Cryptocurrencies still have many gaps to research, such as regulation, so that many countries have not legalized Crypto transactions. If there is no regulation for Crypto, it is certain that an increase in cybercrime harms crypto investors and threatens global financial stability. Nevertheles, with or without COVID-19, investment transactions gain and lose based on confidence in the limited market. Therefore, the success of confidence fluctuations in crypto encourages the emergence of alternative coins created by investors to conduct an Initial Coin Offering (ICO).
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202111.0361.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Sport Sciences & Therapy Keywords: swimming; COVID-19; swim performance
Online: 19 November 2021 (14:34:46 CET)
The COVID-19 pandemic caused significant training disruptions during the 2020-21 season due to lockdowns, quarantines, and strict adherence to pandemic protocols. The main purpose of this study was to determine how pandemic training restrictions affected training volume and performance in one collegiate swim team. Cumulative training volume data, across a 28-week season, were compared between a pandemic (2020-2021) versus non-pandemic (2019-2020) season. Swimmers were categorized into three groups (Sprinters, Mid-Distance, and Long-Distance) based on training group. Performance times in 25 swimmers who competed in Regional Championships, during both the non-pandemic and pandemic year, were compared via 1-way ANOVA. 26 male and 22 female swimmers commenced the 2020-21 (pandemic) season, with 23% of swimmers voluntarily opting out. Three COVID-19 cases were confirmed (2%) by the medical staff with no long-term effects. Significant reductions in average swim volume were verified in Sprinters (32,867±10,135 vs.14,800±7,995yards;p<0.001), Mid-Distance (26,457±10,692 vs.17,054±9.923yards;p<0.001), and Long-Distance (37,600±14,430 vs.22,254±14,418yards;p<0.001) swimmers (non-pandemic vs. pandemic season, respectively). In the Regional performance analyses, the Sprinters swam faster (n=8;-0.5±0.6secs), while Mid-Distance (n=10;0.17±2.1secs) and Long-Distance (n=7;6.0±4.9secs) swimmers swam slower (F=11.76;p=0.0003;r2=0.52). Thus, the pandemic caused significant reductions in swim training volume, with Sprinters performing better and Long-Distance swimmers performing worse at Regional Championships.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0203.v1
Online: 12 May 2020 (05:41:34 CEST)
The COVID-19 pandemic has presented the world with increased challenges. The response to this pandemic has led to a sudden disruption of routine medical and elective surgical care. Most hospitals across the globe have had to change the way outpatient clinics are carried out and postpone non-urgent elective surgical procedures. NHS England ceased all elective general surgeries to train and re-deploy their staff to support the increased pressures from COVID-19 in an intensive care setting. However, with a decline of reported cases and deaths, the return to undertaking non-urgent elective services is imminent. In May 2020, Radha and Afzal published the first evidence-based guidelines for the resumption of elective orthopaedic services titled “Evidence based suggestions for the return to elective orthopaedic surgery following the COVID-19 Pandemic”. The pathway presented is adapted from the “Evidence based suggestions for the return to elective orthopaedic surgery following the COVID-19 Pandemic” and could potentially be used as a model for other surgical specialities. We present a three-phased return back to urological services. Safe resumption of elective care is possible but needs to be carefully planned.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202112.0230.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Marketing Keywords: e-commerce; m-commerce; innovation; business management; COVID-19; Czech Republic; Facebook
Online: 14 December 2021 (11:51:29 CET)
The global pandemic caused by the new coronavirus has largely changed established business practices. The aim of the study is to present the results of eighteen-month intensive research into the effects of the pandemic on e-consumer behavior. In one of the most active e-commerce markets in Europe, the Czech Republic, we analyzed a sample of more than one and a half million Facebook users in terms of their C2B interactions on the B2C activities of the five major e-commerce market players. The measurements were carried out in three periods, which corresponded to the onset of the first wave, peak, and fading of the second wave of the pandemic. This enabled us to monitor the effect of seasonality and the stabilization of patterns of consumer behavior during the coronavirus crisis. The results suggest that a specific panic pattern of e-consumer behavior was developed at the time of the onset of the pandemic. However, as the pandemic progressed, the market has adapted to a new normal, which, as evidenced by the change in trends, appears to be a combination of the pre-pandemic and pandemic behavioral patterns. Using a statistical analysis, it was possible to identify delta of changes within the patterns of consumer behavior, thus fulfilling the final condition for creating an empirical model of the COVID-19 pandemic impacts on e-consumer behavior presented in this study.
COMMUNICATION | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0132.v1
Subject: Life Sciences, Other Keywords: risk perception; coronavirus; covid-19; risk communication; global health
Online: 7 May 2020 (15:12:32 CEST)
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is shaking the foundations of public health governance all over the world. Researchers are challenged by informing and supporting authorities on acquired knowledge and practical implications. This commentary applies established theories of risk perception research to COVID-19 and reflects on the role of risk perceptions in these unprecedented times. Moreover, it calls for utilizing the knowledge on risk perception to improve health risk communication, build trust and contribute to a collaborating governance.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202004.0421.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence & Robotics Keywords: COVID-19; trend prediction; optimized neural network
Online: 24 April 2020 (02:57:32 CEST)
The recent worldwide outbreak of the novel corona-virus (COVID-19) opened up new challenges to the research community. Artificial intelligence (AI) driven methods can be useful to predict the parameters, risks, and effects of such an epidemic. Such predictions can be helpful to control and prevent the spread of such diseases. The main challenges of applying AI is the small volume of data and the uncertain nature. Here, we propose a shallow Long short-term memory (LSTM) based neural network to predict the risk category of a country. We have used a Bayesian optimization framework to optimized and automatically design country-specific networks. We have combined the trend data and weather data together for the prediction. The results show that the proposed pipeline outperforms against state-of-the-art methods for 170 countries data and can be a useful tool for such risk categorization. The tool can be used to predict long-duration outbreak of such an epidemic such that we can take preventive steps earlier.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202004.0527.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Oncology & Oncogenics Keywords: Radiation oncology; COVID-19; Radiation therapist COVID-19 policy; Radiation oncology departmental Policy
Online: 30 April 2020 (11:02:58 CEST)
Abstract: This brief policy is written after experience treating COVID-19 positive radiation therapy patients to reduce risk to therapy staff and patients in radiation oncology department. It is important to prioritize the safety of staff and non-infected patients while ensuring the continuation of radiation oncology services. Radiation therapists have sustained contact with covid-19 patients in an enclosed vault. Protocols for correct disinfecting of equipment and room and therapists following methods for less transmission of virus is crucial. This policy covers prevention methods from COVID-19 transmission from patient to patient, patient to staff, staff to patient and staff to staff as follows A.Risk reduction by screening and preparing staff and rooms B.Radiation Therapist Policy for COVID-19 positive patient with CCC (Critical Cancer Care)
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0113.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, General Medical Research Keywords: trace element; inflammation; selenoprotein P; micronutrient; COVID-19
Online: 7 July 2020 (08:15:45 CEST)
SARS-CoV-2 infections underlie the current Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic and are causative for a high death toll particularly among elderly subjects and those with comorbidities. Selenium (Se) is an essential trace element of high importance for human health and particularly for a well-balanced immune response. Mortality risk from severe disease like sepsis or polytrauma is inversely related to Se status. We hypothesized that this relation also applies to COVID-19. Serum samples (n=166) from COVID-19 patients (n=33) were collected consecutively and analysed for total Se by X-ray fluorescence and selenoprotein P (SELENOP) by a validated ELISA. Both biomarkers showed the expected strong correlation (r=0.7758, p<0.001), pointing to an insufficient Se status for optimal selenoprotein expression. In comparison to reference data from a European cross sectional analysis (EPIC, n=1915), the patients showed a pronounced deficit in total serum Se (mean±SD, 50.8±15.7 vs. 84.4±23.4 µg/L) and SELENOP (3.0±1.4 vs. 4.3±1.0 mg/L). A Se status below the 2.5th percentile of the reference population, i.e., [Se] < 45.7 µg/L and [SELENOP] < 2.56 mg/L was present in 43.4% and 39.2% of COVID samples, respectively. The Se status was significantly higher in samples from surviving COVID patients as compared to non-survivors (Se; 53.3±16.2 vs. 40.8±8.1 µg/L, SELENOP; 3.3±1.3 vs. 2.1±0.9 mg/L). We conclude that Se status analysis in COVID patients provides diagnostic information. However, causality remains unknown due to the observational nature of this study. Nevertheless, the findings strengthen the notion on a relevant role of Se for COVID convalescence, and support the discussion on adjuvant Se supplementation in severely diseased and Se-deficient patients.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202009.0487.v1
Online: 21 September 2020 (03:35:15 CEST)
The age-related mortality and morbidity risk of COVID-19 has been considered speculative without enough scientific evidence. This study aimed to collect more evidence on the association between patient age and risk of severe disease state and/or mortality from SARS-CoV-2 infection. Genomic dataset along with metadata (3608 samples) retrieved from GISAID from different geographical regions were grouped into 10 age groups (0-10, 11-20, 21-30, 31-40, 41-50, 51-60, 61-70, 71-80, 81-90, 91-100 years) as well as high-risk or low-risk according to patient clinical status. Genomic sequences were aligned and analyzed using MAFFT and FASTTREE to build a phylogenetic tree in order to identify age-risk associations based on phylogenetic clustering. Case fatality rates (CFR), as well as the Odds ratio (OR) for high-risk outcomes, were calculated for different age groups. Results revealed that individuals aged between 25-50 years have the best immune response to the infection. On the other hand, disease fatality was higher in patients aging above 50 years. We created an application to calculate the OR of being at high risk given a certain age threshold from GISAID datasets. OR values increased between ages 1-10 years (1.271) and 11-20 years (1.313) but reduced at age range 21-30 years (1.290) and increased again for 61-70 years (2.465). CFR calculated for each of the age groups had peak values at 90-100 years (26.8%) and the lowest at 0-10 years (0%). The CFR for ages above 50 years was about twice greater (11.6%-26.8%) than that for ages below (0-6.6%). The phylogenetic analysis revealed that the majority of samples obtained from India showed low-risk among different age groups and were defined as clade GH. Another cluster from Singapore visualization showed unfavorable patient outcome across several age groups and were classified under clade O. To conclude, this study analyses showed a variety of age-risk associations. As scientists from different countries upload more genomes to globally shared databases, more evidence will reinforce mortality risk associations in COVID-19 patients.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202103.0547.v1
Online: 22 March 2021 (15:45:51 CET)
Alcoholism is a condition associated with psychiatric and psychiatric problems, where the respiratory system is damaged through the mucociliary ladder mechanism and alveolar macrophage dysfunction. In the time COVID-19 has been observed a dramatic increase in alcohol consumption mediated by levels of anxiety and situations of confinement. In this work we analyze the relationship between alcoholism and SARS, especially with SARS-CoV-2, explained by a degradation of the host defenses of the respiratory epithelium by changing the barrier function, the discharge of cytokines and the functions of the cilia. All of them involved in the defense mechanism. of the lungs. This leads to a worse prognosis for patients precisely because of alcohol consumption. Based on this approach, alcoholism will exacerbate the consequences of COVID-19.
HYPOTHESIS | doi:10.20944/preprints202004.0013.v1
Online: 2 April 2020 (11:06:47 CEST)
The pharmacology of azithromycin, and the actions of certain bee products, suggest the possibility of overlap with the pathophysiology of COVID-19 at several points in the disease process. First, intercellular epithelial tight junctions of the respiratory tract serve as a critical barrier to invaders. Pathophysiological factors capable of disrupting this epithelial barrier include viral virulence factors such as those observed for other coronaviruses; virulence factors derived from potentially synergistic pathogens such as Candida albicans and Porphyramonas gingivalis; and imbalances in the host inflammatory response. Azithromycin, and to a lesser extent, certain bee products, appear to have actions that oppose such processes. Second, the matrikine PGP or its derivatives may contribute to risk in individuals at high risk for serious COVID-19 infection, especially during reactivation; but azithromycin is capable of modulating PGP in some contexts. Third, the most serious COVID-19 infections are associated with massive upregulation of inflammatory cytokines such as IL-6, TNF alpha, and other inflammatory cytokines. The anti inflammatory actions of azithromycin and bee derived products such as melittin are potentially capable of modulating these processes, as well. Azithromycin is already in current use as a treatment for COVID-19; however, it's utility as a protector of epithelial barrier function would be most likely to be realized in prophylactic context rather than in a treatment context. Similarly, since the anti inflammatory effects of bee products take time, their effectiveness of melittin and other bee products would be expected to be maximized in a prophylactic context. In the context of the current pandemic, prophylaxis with azithromycin, bee products, or both, might be warranted for individuals at high risk for serious COVID-19 infection.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202205.0408.v2
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, General Medical Research Keywords: hesitancy; covid-19; post-covid; medical doctors; indonesia
Online: 13 September 2022 (05:13:14 CEST)
This study is a cross-sectional survey involving physicians around Indonesia aimed to explore physician hesitancy to treat COVID-19 patients after experiencing COVID-19 infection coupled with associated occupational risk factors. The questionnaire was distributed via contact information from the Indonesian Physician Association database. Out of 383 participants, 25.6% suffered from moderate symptoms of COVID-19 and 2.9% were admitted for critical care. Hesitancy to treat suspected, probable, or confirmed COVID-19 patients was found in 20.3% of physicians. A higher hesitancy rate was found in older physicians and those with less experience in treating COVID-19 patients. Specialist trainees and those who work in public hospitals were physicians with the lowest hesitancy in treating COVID-19 patients. There is a significant hesitancy in treating COVID-19 patients among physicians who have suffered from COVID-19 which calls for further action by management and policy makers.
TECHNICAL NOTE | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0391.v3
Subject: Behavioral Sciences, Other Keywords: COVID-19; risk analysis; heuristic; probability; ascertainment; vaccination
Online: 12 January 2021 (12:26:41 CET)
This paper provides a framework for the assessment of household-level risk, incorporating both a individual social risk perspective and a location-based perspective. We use this framework as a heuristic to explore the effect of social reintegration choices individuals face, which are not be addressed by current policies. For example, we explore how integrating extended family households during COVID-19 without social distancing may affect household and community risk. The goal is to aid individual decision makers, who are seeking to maintain quality-of-life while navigating local policy, with nuance relating to location-specific behavior and disease prevalence.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202009.0029.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, General Medical Research Keywords: diabetes mellitus; hypertension; obesity; Coronavirus; mechanism; COVID-19; viral interaction
Online: 2 September 2020 (05:37:46 CEST)
The pandemic of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), a disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARSCoV-2), is causing substantial morbidity and mortality. Older age and presence of diabetes mellitus, hypertension and obesity significantly increases the risk for hospitalization and death in COVID-19 patients. In this Perspective, informed by the studies on SARS-CoV-2, Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS-CoV), and the current literature on SARS-CoV-2, we discuss potential mechanisms by which diabetes modulates the host-viral interactions and host-immune responses. We hope to highlight gaps in knowledge that require further studies pertinent to COVID-19 in patients with diabetes mellitus, hypertension and obesity.
CONCEPT PAPER | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0298.v1
Online: 18 May 2020 (08:01:52 CEST)
COVID-19 Pandemic management has become the top priority of Government Institutions globally, which is justifiable seeing the high mortality of the disease. In India, Lockdowns by National, State and Local level administrations have greatly reduced the spread of the SARS COV-2 Virus. Some areas with a greater proportion of COVID-19 patients have been declared hotspots with increased restrictions on public activities through law enforcement. But quite often delay in identification of these hotspots leads to community transmission of the Virus thus aggravating the problem. A method to identify the areas which are at risk of becoming the next hotspot for the disease is the need of the hour. In this Research document we will find the probable risk factors and make an appropriate scale to measure the vulnerability of an area, identified by its Postal code. To help with this a Pan India survey by the title of “Survey on General Indian population on the level of preparedness for COVID-19 pandemic” was launched and received around 1250 submissions, with the acquired data we will evaluate the risk factors and make appropriate scale to identify ‘pre-hotspots’.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0433.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Probability And Statistics Keywords: COVID 19; Risk Zone; Empirical parameters
Online: 26 May 2020 (13:21:57 CEST)
All transmission disease depends on the transmission opportunity or medium like humans in COVID-19. Due to globalization and regular movement of people from one country to another, spread of COVID 19 reached to 208 countries till May 10, 2020. For any society health is major concern for humanity as well as administration. Any pandemic is declared as and when it reached at a particular severity level and control vice versa. So, we have continued the daily COVID 19 cases analysis and segregated till May 10, 2020. We have included at least 25 countries for the analysis purpose due to limitation of number of observations in the analysis. Maximum number of day’s data available for China is for 100 days, followed by Iran for 81 days, minimum number of days data is for 16 days for Western Sahara and Tajikistan.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0371.v1
Online: 22 August 2022 (04:00:03 CEST)
COVID-19 infection in the pediatric population usually leads to a mild illness, however, a rare but serious complication of MIS-C has been seen in children. MIS-C usually presents 2-4 weeks after COVID-19 infection or exposure, and rare reports have been documented in neonates. Vaccinations for COVID-19 have been approved for children 6 months and above in the United States, and recent reports suggest significantly low prevalence and risk of complications of MIS-C in vaccinated children compared to unvaccinated children. Vaccinations for COVID-19 are safe and recommended during pregnancy and prevent severe maternal morbidity and adverse birth outcomes. Evidence from other vaccine-preventable diseases suggests that through passive transplacental antibody transfer, maternal vaccinations are protective against infections in infants during the first 6 months of life. Various studies have demonstrated that maternal COVID-19 vaccination is associated with the presence of anti-spike protein antibodies in infants, persisting even at 6 months of age. Further, completion of a 2-dose primary mRNA COVID-19 vaccination series during pregnancy is associated with reduced risk for COVID-19–associated hospitalization among infants aged 6 months or less. Therefore, it can be hypothesized that maternal COVID-19 vaccination can reduce the risk of and severity of MIS-C in infants. In this article, we review the literature to support this hypothesis.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202205.0216.v2
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Pathology & Pathobiology Keywords: Bioimpedance; COVID-19; E-health; Health Care Personnel; Pathophysiology; Post-COVID syndrome; Rheography
Online: 23 May 2022 (05:26:58 CEST)
At present, there are no hardware or biochemical systems allow to assess the severity of post-COVID syndrome in vivo. The hardware of the proposed biotechnical system is based on routine transthoracic electrical impedance rheography, which makes it possible to register the frequency characteristics of the patient's bioimpedance response to controlled stress stimulation, thereby simultaneously fixing the characteristics of his productive heart, the state of the hemomicrocirculatory bed, the efficiency of the gas transport function of his blood, and also reliably assess personal reactivity and adaptive potential. Subsequent mathematical approximation of the obtained biometric data by an original neural network makes it possible to rank the results obtained and automatically generate a program of medical rehabilitation for a particular patient, depending on the severity of his post-COVID syndrome. The study results proved two reliable physiological signs confirming the presence of latent post-COVID complications: a decrease in the base impedance value for light exercise and an increase in the length of the systolic arc of the rheocardiogram.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0141.v1
Subject: Biology, Animal Sciences & Zoology Keywords: mammals; wildlife; SARS-CoV-2; human-to-wildlife transmission; COVID-19
Online: 8 May 2020 (09:56:01 CEST)
It has been a long time since the world has experienced a pandemic with such a rapid devastating impact as the current COVID-19 pandemic. The causative agent, the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is further unusual in that it appears capable of infecting many different mammal species. As a significant proportion of people worldwide are infected with SARS-CoV-2 and may spread the infection unknowingly before symptoms occur or without any symptoms ever occurring, there is a non-negligible risk of humans spreading SARS-CoV-2 to wildlife, in particular mammals. Because of SARS-CoV-2’s evolutionary origins in bats and reports of humans transmitting the virus to pets and zoo animals, regulations for prevention of human-to-animal transmission have so far focused mostly on these animal groups. Here, we summarize recent studies and reports that show that a wide range of distantly related mammals are likely susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 and that susceptibility or resistance to the virus is in general not predictable, or only to some extent, by phylogenetic proximity to known susceptible or resistant hosts. In the absence of solid evidence on the SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility/resistance for each of the >5,500 mammal species, we argue that sanitary precautions should be taken when interacting with any mammal species in the wild. Preventing human-to-wildlife SARS-CoV-2 transmission is important for protecting these (sometimes endangered) animals from disease, but also to avoid establishment of novel SARS-CoV-2 reservoirs in wild animals. The risk of repeated re-infection of humans from such a wildlife reservoir could severely hamper SARS-CoV-2 control efforts. For wildlife fieldworkers interacting directly or indirectly with mammals, we recommend sanitary precautions such as physical distancing, wearing face masks and gloves, and frequent decontamination, which are very similar to regulations currently imposed to prevent transmission among humans.
Online: 16 October 2020 (11:49:13 CEST)
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is caused by infection with the 2019 novel coronavirus 2 (2019-nCoV, now referred to as SARS-CoV-2). COVID-19 has become a global pandemic since its outbreak at the end of Dec 2019. COVID-19 could lead to severe acute respiratory disease, especially to those who have reduced immunity. Binding of the viral Spike protein (S) to its receptor ACE2 (Angiotensin Converting Enzyme 2) on the surface of target cells has been proven to be key for virus entry and infection. Although ACE2 expression in the respiratory system is necessary for pneumonia infection by SARS-CoV-2, the regulation of ACE2 gene expression remains poorly investigated, especially for patients that are in pre-pathological conditions. Here, by analyzing The Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database, we investigated the expression regulation of ACE2 in various kinds of primary epithelial cells from the respiratory system after varies of respiratory viruses infection such as influenza A virus (IFV), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and human rhinovirus (hRV). Our analyses reveal that infection of multiple kinds of respiratory viruses or influenza vaccines greatly increased ACE2 expression, suggesting that respiratory viruses infection could represent a high risk factor for developing COVID-19. We also found that the regulatory effect of influenza A virus on ACE2 expression is associated with activation of the interferon beta-induced pathway and viral RNA-activated host response. Together, our data provide a theoretical framework for clinical classification for SARS-CoV-2 infection susceptibility and could be used for future prevention and therapy treatment for COVID-19.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0242.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Allergology Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; long-haul; inflammation; tissue damage; drug repurposing
Online: 10 December 2020 (09:42:20 CET)
Long-haul COVID-19 illness first gained widespread recognition among social support groups and later in scientific and medical communities. This illness is mysterious as it affects COVID-19 survivors at all levels of disease severity, even younger adults and children. While the precise definition may be lacking, the defining symptoms are fatigue, dyspnea, and headache that last for months after hospital discharge. The less typical symptoms may include cognitive impairments, chest and joint pains, myalgia, smell and taste dysfunctions, cough, mood changes, and gastrointestinal and cardiac issues. Presently, there is limited literature discussing the possible pathophysiology, risk factors, and treatments in long-haul COVID-19, which the current review aims to address. In brief, long-haul COVID-19 may be driven by long-term lung and brain damage and unresolved inflammation from multiple sources. The associated risk factors may include female sex, more than five early symptoms, early dyspnea, and specific biomarkers like D-dimer. While only rehabilitation training has been useful for long-haul COVID-19, therapeutics repurposed from mast cell activation syndrome, myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome, and pulmonary fibrosis also hold potential. In sum, this review hopes to provide the current understanding of what is known about long-haul COVID-19.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0621.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Other Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; mortality; epidemiology; risk factors; Nigeria; Africa
Online: 25 July 2020 (18:20:23 CEST)
Nigeria is the most populous country in the African continent. The aim of this study was to analyze risk factors for COVID-19 prevalence and deaths in all 6 geopolitical regions and 37 states in Nigeria. We analyzed the data retrieved from various sources, including Nigeria CDC, Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics, Unicef-Nigeria multiple indicator cluster survey and the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington. We examined 4 clinical risk factors (prevalence of TB, HIV, smoking and BCG vaccination coverage) and 5 sociodemographic factors (age ≥65, population density, literacy rate, unemployment and GDP per capita). Multivariate modeling was conducted using generalized linear model. Our analysis showed that the incidence of confirmed COVID-19 cases differed widely across the 37 states, from 0.09 per 100,000 in Kogi to 83.7 in Lagos. However, more than 70% of confirmed cases were concentrated in just 7 states: Lagos, Abuja, Oyo, Kano, Edo, Rivers and Delta. Case mortality rate (CMR) per million population also varied considerably, with Lagos, Abuja and Edo having CMR above 9. On bivariate analysis, higher CMR correlated positively with GDP and to a lesser extent with TB and population density. On multivariate analysis, which is more definitive, states with higher HIV prevalence and BCG coverage had lower CMR, while high GDP states had a greater CMR. This study indicates that COVID-19 has disproportionately affected certain states in Nigeria. Population susceptibility factors include higher economic development but not literacy or unemployment. Death rates were mildly lower in states with higher HIV prevalence and BCG vaccination coverage.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202002.0398.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Applied Mathematics Keywords: COVID-19; pairwise epidemic model; household quarantine; clustering coefficient
Online: 27 February 2020 (11:00:23 CET)
The ongoing outbreak of the novel coronavirus pneumonia (also known as COVID-19) has triggered a series of stringent control measures in China, such as city closure, traffic restrictions, contact tracing and household quarantine. These containment efforts often lead to changes in the contact pattern among individuals of the population. Many existing compartmental epidemic models fail to account for the effects of contact structure. In this paper, we devised a pairwise epidemic model to analyze the COVID-19 outbreak in China based on confirmed cases reported during the period February 3rd--17th, 2020. By explicitly incorporating the effects of family clusters and contact tracing followed by household quarantine and isolation, our model provides a good fit to the trajectory of COVID-19 infections and is useful to predict the epidemic trend. We obtained the average of the reproduction number $R=1.494$ ($95\%$ CI: $1.483-1.507$) for Hubei province and $R=1.178$ ($95\%$ CI: $1.145-1.158$) for China (except Hubei), suggesting that some existing studies may have overestimated the reproduction number by neglecting the dynamical correlations and clustering effects. We forecasted that the COVID-19 epidemic would peak on February 13th ($95\%$ CI: February $9-17$th) in Hubei and 6 days eariler in the regions outside Hubei. Moreover the epidemic was expected to last until the middle of March in China (except Hubei) and late April in Hubei. The sensitivity analysis shows that ongoing exposure for the susceptible and population clustering play an important role in the disease propagation. With the enforcement of household quarantine measures, the reproduction number $R$ effectively reduces and epidemic quantities decrease accordingly. Furthermore, we gave an answer to the public concern on how long the stringent containment strategies should maintain. Through numerical analysis, we suggested that the time for the resumption of work and production in China (except Hubei) and Hubei would be the middle of March and the end of April, 2020, respectively. These constructive suggestions may bring some immeasurable social-economic benefits in the long run.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0382.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Nutrition Keywords: nutritional screening; nutritional risk; nutritional assessment; malnutrition; elderly; COVID-19; coronavirus
Online: 18 August 2020 (11:03:10 CEST)
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is associated with high risk of malnutrition, primarily in elderly people; assessing nutritional risk using appropriate screening tools is critical. This systematic review identified applicable tools and assessed their measurement properties. Literature was searched in the MEDLINE, Embase, and LILACS databases. Four studies conducted in China met the eligibility criteria. Sample sizes ranged from six to 182, and participants’ ages from 65 to 87 years. Seven nutritional screening and assessment tools were used: the Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (NRS-2002), Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA), MNA-short form (MNA-sf), Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool (MUST), Nutritional Risk Index (NRI), Geriatric NRI (GNRI), and modified Nutrition Risk in the Critically ill (mNUTRIC) score. Nutritional risk was identified in 27.5% to 100% of participants. The NRS-2002, MNA, MNA-sf, NRI, and MUST demonstrated high sensitivity; the MUST had better specificity. The MNA and MUST demonstrated better criterion validity. The MNA-sf demonstrated better predictive validity for poor appetite and weight loss; the NRS-2002 demonstrated better predictive validity for prolonged hospitalization. mNUTRIC score demonstrated good predictive validity for hospital mortality. Most instruments demonstrate high sensitivity for identifying nutritional risk, but none are acknowledged as the best for nutritional screening in elderly COVID-19 patients.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0478.v1
Subject: Life Sciences, Virology Keywords: Antarctica; coronavirus; COVID-19; mitigation measures; reverse zoonoses; risk assessment; SARS-CoV-2; wildlife
Online: 21 August 2020 (09:21:25 CEST)
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has spread rapidly to most parts of the world, causing high numbers of deaths and significant social and economic impacts. SARS-CoV-2 is a novel coronavirus with a suggested zoonotic origin and with the potential for cross-species transmission among animals. Antarctica can be considered the only continent free of SARS-CoV-2 although at the end of the 2019-2020 tourist season, at least one SARS-CoV-2 positive tourist visited the Antarctic Peninsula. Therefore, concerns have been expressed regarding the potential human introduction of this virus to the continent through the activities of research or tourism with potential effects including those related to human health, but also the potential for virus transmission to Antarctic wildlife. This reverse-zoonotic transmission risk to Antarctic wildlife is assessed considering the available information on host susceptibility, dynamics of the infection in humans, and contact interactions between humans and Antarctic wildlife. Measures to reduce the risk are proposed as well as the identification of knowledge gaps related to this issue.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202207.0223.v1
Subject: Life Sciences, Virology Keywords: Monoclonal antibodies; Sotrovimab; COVID-19; Omicron; BA.2
Online: 14 July 2022 (12:22:21 CEST)
Coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) continues to spread worldwide as a severe pandemic. The Omicron BA.2 became the predominant variant and the protagonist of the ongoing surge. As the virus continues to mutate, using of approved drugs or developing new therapeutic or prophylactic therapies against COVID-19 could be more complex. Sotrovimab is a monoclonal antibody (mAb) targeting the conserved epitope on the spike protein receptor; the most recent studies observed that it has substantially decreased in vitro activity against the Omicron BA.2 subvariant, but real-life data are still scarce. We describe the outcome of a case series of outpatients with BA.1 or BA.2 infection treated with sotrovimab. We conducted a retrospective observational study including all non-hospitalized adult patients treated with sotrovimab, for which a Sanger sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 was performed within a regional genomic surveillance program. Eleven (50%) patients with BA.1 infection and eleven (50%) with BA.2 infection were considered. Most patients were immunocompromised. During the follow-up period, no patient died and only one with BA.1 infection was hospitalized for severe COVID-19 pneumonia onset. One month after treatment, 90.9% of patients were completely asymptomatic in each group. We demonstrated that patients carrying the BA.2 variant treated with sotrovimab did not evolve to severe COVID-19, showing a similar outcome to BA.1 infected patients. Further studies are needed to prove that vaccination or the presumably high doses of mAbs used can protect this group of patients at high risk of progression.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202107.0472.v3
Subject: Behavioral Sciences, Applied Psychology Keywords: Online misinformation; COVID-19 vaccination; fully vaccinated; Intelligence Quotient; per capita income
Online: 20 September 2021 (12:12:19 CEST)
The objective of the study was to evaluate the risk factors associated with lower COVID-19 vaccination rates in the United States. The study evaluated the effect of red-blue political affiliation and the effect of the US state's average educational aptitude score and per capita income on states' vaccination rates. The study found that states with concomitantly lower income along with lower educational aptitude scores are less vaccinated while the states with higher income have higher vaccination rates even among those with lower educational aptitude scores. These findings stayed significant after adjusting for red-blue political affiliation where states with red political affiliation have lower vaccination rates. Further study is needed to evaluate how to stop online misinformation among states with low income and low educational aptitude scores; and whether such an effort will increase overall vaccination rates in the United States.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202203.0283.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Other Keywords: COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy; Misinformation; Government Actions; Communication
Online: 21 March 2022 (10:29:33 CET)
The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the adverse consequences created by an infodemic specifically on compliance with public health guidance and vaccine uptake. COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy is a complex construct that is related to health beliefs, misinformation exposure, and perceptions of governmental institutions. This study draws on theoretical models and current data on the COVID-19 infodemic to explore the association between perceived risk of COVID-19, levels of misinformation endorsement, and opinions about the government response on vaccine uptake. We surveyed a sample of 2,697 respondents from the US, Canada, and Italy using a mobile platform between 21-28 May, 2021. Using multivariate regression, we found that country of residence, risk perception of contracting and spreading COVID-19, perception of government response and transparency, and misinformation endorsement was associated with the odds of vaccine hesitancy. Higher perceived risk was associated with lower odds of hesitancy, while lower perceptions of government response, and higher misinformation endorsement were associated with higher hesitancy.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202003.0361.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, General Medical Research Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; pathogenicity model; diagnosis; progression prediction; poikilosis
Online: 24 March 2020 (14:43:24 CET)
A novel strategy is presented for reliable diagnosis and progression prediction of diseases with special attention to COVID-19 pandemy. A plan is presented for how the model can be implemented worldwide in healthcare and how novel treatments and targets can be detected. The idea is based on poikilosis, pervasive heterogeneity and variation at all levels, systems and mechanisms. Poikilosis in diseases can be taken account in pathogenicity model, which is based on distribution of three independent condition measures – extent, modulation and severity. Pathogenicity model is a population or cohort-based description of disease components. Evidence-based thresholds can be applied to the pathogenicity model and used for diagnosis as well as for early detection of patients in risk of developing the most severe forms of the disease. Analysis of patients with differential course of disease can help in detecting biomarkers of diagnostic and prognostic significance. A practical and feasible plan is presented how the concepts can be implemented in practice. Collaboration of many actors, including the World Health Organization and national health authorities, will be essential for success.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202104.0132.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Algebra & Number Theory Keywords: multinomial logistic regression; K-means clustering; COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; meteorological variables
Online: 5 April 2021 (12:49:33 CEST)
The COVID-19 disease spreads swiftly, and nearly three months after the first positive case was confirmed in China, Coronavirus started to spread all over the United States. Some states and counties reported an extremely high number of positive cases and deaths, while some reported too few COVID-19 related cases and mortality. In this paper, the factors that could affect the transmission of COVID-19 and its risk level in different counties have been determined and analyzed. Using Pearson Correlation, K-means clustering, and several classification models, the most critical ones were determined. Results showed that mean temperature, percent of people below poverty, percent of adults with obesity, air pressure, percentage of rural areas, and percent of uninsured people in each county were the most significant and effective attributes.
Subject: Life Sciences, Virology Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; ambient temperature; risk level; mortality
Online: 6 July 2020 (10:25:09 CEST)
COVID-19 is a pandemic with no cure. There is an urgent need for low-cost interventions. Macroclimate work through affecting microclimate. In many situations, man-made microclimate, such as air conditioning, may override the effect of natural macroclimate in determining SARS-CoV-2 pathogenicity. Ambient temperature (AT) has been roughly associated to SARS-CoV-2 transmission. To translate into a feasible practice in controlling COVID-19 pandemic, in-depth and implementable knowledge of AT role in SARS-CoV-2 transmission should be unveiled. This study aimed to determine if there is a ‘safe’ temperature that is comfortable to human beings while significantly inhibitory for SARS-CoV-2 pathogenicity. Data on monthly new deaths or new cases per million population (MDPM or MCPM) and monthly cumulated days with more cases than the previous day (DI) from March 2 to June 30, 2020 were collected from all 118 countries with population over five million. Monthly average AT negatively correlated with the transmission parameters. A significant decrease in transmission was observed when AT reached above 20 ºC. Monthly average (not average high) AT of countries with MDPM <2, MCPM<10, or DI<=7 was found to be between 24.54 and 26.89 ºC (25.18 ºC on average) with average standard error of 4.81. Thus, average AT <20, 20-25, >25 ºC were considered as high, medium, and low risk AT. Furthermore, MDPM in countries with AT <20 ºC were 80.93, 50.23, 13.52, and 5.05 times of those in countries with AT >25 ºC in March, April, May, and June, respectively. MDPM low-risk rates (<2) in countries with AT >25 ºC were 100, 83.33, 52.73, and 52.46%, respectively. In countries with AT <20 ºC, the trends were opposite. Setting indoor temperature to 25 ºC could decrease the need of social distancing for containing SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Ventilation and sanitizing the air with ultraviolet light in nonbusiness hours may be additionally effective. Cooling indoor temperature too low may be a reason of COVID-19 outbreak in some high AT countries. Authorities and the general population can evaluate COVID-19 risk level and manipulate microclimate to reduce the risk anywhere anytime based on local day average AT.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202010.0432.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Accounting Keywords: COVID-19; pandemic; travel intentions; health risk perception; intolerance of uncertainty
Online: 21 October 2020 (11:11:43 CEST)
Understanding tourist behaviour during and after major tourism crises is essential to help destinations recover. The COVID-19 pandemic, a period of uncertainty and risk, makes it relevant to assess factors that influence travel intentions. There has been little research on tourist behaviour during health crises and, in particular, on perceived health risk and uncertainty effects on travel intentions. This study was carried out during the first months of the pandemic in Brazil and aims to investigate the role of health risk perception and intolerance of uncertainty on travel intentions for 2020 and 2021. We applied an online survey to 1,150 Brazilian participants from March to May of 2020. Our findings indicate that perceived COVID-19 severity, perceived probability of contracting it, and expected pandemic duration are significant predictors of travel intentions for both years. This paper sheds new light on tourist behaviour in the context of global health crises.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202110.0429.v1
Subject: Behavioral Sciences, Applied Psychology Keywords: COVID-19; perceived risk; communication; psychophysical strain; longitudinal study.
Online: 28 October 2021 (09:58:00 CEST)
The perceived risk of being infected at work (PRIW) with COVID-19 represents a potential risk factor for workers during the current COVID-19 pandemic. In line with the job demands-resources (JD-R) model applied to safety at work, in this longitudinal study we propose that PRIW can be conceptualized as a job demand, whereas communication (i.e., the exchange of good-quality information across team members) can be conceived as a job resource. Accordingly, we hypothesized that PRIW at Time 1 (T1) would positively predict psychophysical strain at Time 2 (i.e., four months later). Furthermore, we hypothesized that communication at T1 would negatively predict psychophysical strain at T2. Overall, 297 workers took part in the study. The hypothesized relationships were tested using multiple regression analysis. Results supported our predictions: PRIW positively predicted psychophysical strain over time, whereas communication negatively predicted psychophysical strain over time. Also, results did not change after controlling for age, gender, and type of contract. Overall, this study suggests that PRIW and communication can be considered as a risk and a protective factor for work-related stress, respectively. Hence, to promote more sustainable working conditions, interventions should encourage organizations to optimize the balance between job demands and job resources related to COVID-19.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0025.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, General Medical Research Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; outpatients; treatment; zinc; hydroxychloroquine; azithromycin
Online: 3 July 2020 (08:52:22 CEST)
Objective: To describe outcomes of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the outpatient setting after early treatment with zinc, low dose hydroxychloroquine, and azithromycin (the triple therapy) dependent on risk stratification. Design: Retrospective case series study. Setting: General practice. Participants: 141 COVID-19 patients with laboratory confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections in the year 2020. Main Outcome Measures: Risk-stratified treatment decision, rate of hospitalization and all-cause death. Results: Of 335 positively PCR-tested COVID-19 patients, 127 were treated with the triple therapy. 104 of 127 met the defined risk stratification criteria and were included in the analysis. In addition, 37 treated and eligible patients who were confirmed by IgG tests were included in the treatment group (total N=141). 208 of the 335 patients did not meet the risk stratification criteria and were not treated. After 4 days (median, IQR 3-6, available for N=66/141) of onset of symptoms, 141 patients (median age 58 years, IQR 40-67; 73% male) got a prescription for the triple therapy for 5 days. Independent public reference data from 377 confirmed COVID-19 patients of the same community were used as untreated control. 4 of 141 treated patients (2.8%) were hospitalized, which was significantly less (p<0.001) compared with 58 of 377 untreated patients (15.4%) (odds ratio 0.16, 95% CI 0.06-0.5). Therefore, the odds of hospitalization of treated patients were 84% less than in the untreated group. One patient (0.7%) died in the treatment group versus 13 patients (3.5%) in the untreated group (odds ratio 0.2, 95% CI 0.03-1.5; p=0.16). There were no cardiac side effects. Conclusions: Risk stratification-based treatment of COVID-19 outpatients as early as possible after symptom onset with the used triple therapy, including the combination of zinc with low dose hydroxychloroquine, was associated with significantly less hospitalizations and 5 times less all-cause deaths.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202104.0369.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Business And Administrative Sciences Keywords: Cold supply chain; Meat Supply Chain; Food Safety; COVID-19; Blockchain; Hyperledger Fabric
Online: 14 April 2021 (12:18:24 CEST)
The world is facing an unprecedented socio-economic crisis caused by the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19). It is also spreading through the import and export food supply chains. The Chinese authorities have discovered the COVID-19 virus in various imported frozen meat packages. Traceability plays a vital role in food quality and food safety. The Internet of Things (IoT) provides solutions to keep an eye on environmental conditions, product quality, and product traceability. These solutions are traditionally based on the centralized architecture, which does not guarantee tamper-proof data sharing. The blockchain is an emerging technology that provides tamper-proof data sharing in real-time. This article presents Hyperledger Fabric-based blockchain use case and a quick reference guide to develop the blockchain network for tracking and tracing the supply chain to minimize the risk of COVID-19 in the frozen meat supply chain.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202006.0237.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Other Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; risk factors; outcomes; cardiovascular; Latin America.
Online: 19 June 2020 (10:22:50 CEST)
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) fatal outcomes have been associated with multiple cardiovascular risk factors. In new epidemic areas, such as Latin America, there is a lack of studies about this. Here, we evaluated those factors in a retrospective cohort of patients in a national reference hospital of Lima, Peru. Design. A retrospective cohort observational study was done. For this study, information was obtained from clinical records of the hospital for the cases that were laboratory-diagnosed and related, during March 6th and April 30th, 2020. rRT-PCR was used for the detection of the RNA of SARS-CoV-2 following the protocol Charité, Berlin, Germany, from nasopharyngeal swabs at the National Institute of Health. Calculation of the odds ratio (OR) with the respective 95% confidence interval (95% CI) was done, also logistic regression for adjusted OR (multivariate) was done. Values of p < 0.05 were considered significant for all analyses. Results. One hundred six hospitalized patients were evaluated. The mean age of patients was 61.58 years (SD 16.81). Cardiovascular risk factors among them were hypertension (46.2%), diabetes (28.3%), and obesity (28.3%), among others. Fifty-six patients died (52.8%). Mortality associated factors at the multivariate analysis were arterial hypertension (OR=1.343, 95% 1.089-1.667), myocardial injury (OR=1.303, 95% 1.031-1.642), and mechanical ventilation (OR 1.262, 95% 1.034-1.665), as associated factors. Conclusion. As observed in other regions of the world, cardiovascular risk factors represent a significant and independent threat to be considered in patients with COVID-19. Further studies and interventions in Peru and Latin America are expected.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202104.0383.v1
Subject: Engineering, Automotive Engineering Keywords: COVID-19; pandemic; construction project; risk management; use of technology; recovery and resilience
Online: 14 April 2021 (14:12:17 CEST)
The global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has created a whole new set of risks in construction industries generating unprecedented delays, disruptions, and uncertainty on construction projects, and has forced the industries in adopting more sophisticated technologies while combating the reduced workforce on job sites. Further, the post-pandemic era of construction is expected to be a lot different as the industries will embrace the technology as the augmentation and collaboration strategy. Thus, it will be extremely hard to sustain for construction industries in the absence of effective risk management. The existing risk plans need to be inspected for their capability of handling new risks arising from COVID-19 and the project managers will need to make the necessary revisions as needed. This paper discusses on past (NORM), present (NEW NORM), and future (Post COVID-19 NORM) of the construction industry and highlights key strategies for managing projects and construction risks during and post COVID-19 pandemic.
BRIEF REPORT | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0143.v1
Subject: Life Sciences, Virology Keywords: Covid-19; Epidemiology; Chronic diseases; Serious or critical cases; Brazil; Coronavirus
Online: 8 May 2020 (12:33:24 CEST)
Chronic noncommunicable diseases (CNCDs) have been a major public health concern worldwide, especially diabetes, cardiovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, hypertension, in addition to obesity, which is even more worrying when the subject involves the covid-19 pandemic, because such incidences correlate with the need for intensive care units, including the possibility of death of the patient. Therefore, for countries with the highest numbers of critical cases, it is important to assess the incidence of these diseases to guide the public that most needs guidance on public policies for social isolation.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202009.0404.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence & Robotics Keywords: Social Distancing; COVID-19; Human Detection and Tracking; Distance Estimation, Deep Convolutional Neural Networks; Crowd Monitoring, Inverse Perspective Mapping
Online: 17 September 2020 (11:57:01 CEST)
Social distancing is a recommended solution by the World Health Organisation (WHO) to minimise the spread of COVID-19 in public places. The majority of governments and national health authorities have set the 2-meter physical distancing as a mandatory safety measure in shopping centres, schools and other covered areas. In this research, we develop a Deep Neural Network-based Model for automated people detection, tracking, and inter-people distances estimation in the crowd, using common CCTV security cameras. The proposed DNN model along with an inverse perspective mapping technique leads to a very accurate people detection and social distancing monitoring in challenging conditions, including people occlusion, partial visibility, and lighting variations. We also provide an online infection risk assessment scheme by statistical analysis of the Spatio-temporal data from the moving trajectories and the rate of social distancing violations. We identify high-risk zones with the highest possibility of virus spread and infection. This may help authorities to redesign the layout of a public place or to take precaution actions to mitigate high-risk zones. The efficiency of the proposed methodology is evaluated on the Oxford Town Centre dataset, with superior performance in terms of accuracy and speed compared to three state-of-the-art methods.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202104.0656.v1
Subject: Mathematics & Computer Science, Algebra & Number Theory Keywords: COVID-19; non-pharmaceutical interventions; vaccinations; vaccine doses; pre-existing condition; high risk; low risk
Online: 26 April 2021 (11:00:59 CEST)
The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) was first reported in the U.S. on December 29, 2019 and has spread rapidly throughout the country, affecting individuals with varying severity due to their risk status. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, it is estimated that 45.4% of US adults are at higher risk for complications from coronavirus disease because of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, respiratory disease, hypertension, or cancer. In this study, we developed a mathematical model to assess the impact of a COVID-19 vaccine among low and high risk groups. Numerical simulations shows vaccinating both low and high risk groups simultaneously, rather than prioritizing the vaccine on high risk group only, further reduces the daily mortality. The result supports the need for an aggressive vaccination program, regardless of whether individuals are within the low or high risk population.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0054.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Other Keywords: COVID-19; Knowledge; Perception of Risk; Pandemic Outbreak; Disease Control; Cross-sectional Study
Online: 5 July 2020 (08:10:36 CEST)
COVID-19 is an infectious disease spreading through human touch. This study explored the risk perception and knowledge towards COVID-19 infection among Bangladeshi adult participants. Two self-administered online surveys were administered at two different time points from 26-31 March 2020 (Early lockdown) and 11-16 May 2020 (Late lockdown) through social media on 1005 respondents (322 and 683 participants, respectively) during COVID-19 lockdown period in Bangladesh. Univariate and multiple linear regression models were used to examine factors associated with risk perception and knowledge towards COVID-19. The mean knowledge (8.4 vs. 8.1, P=0.022) and risk perception (11.2 vs. 10.6, P < 0.001) scores differ significantly between early and late lockdown. Compared to the early lockdown period, the scores for perceived risk of contracting COVID-19 decreased significantly while public knowledge about COVID-19 was lower but not statistically significant. Female participants who practiced high quarantine particularly those who did so at the public health order during the lockdown reported increased knowledge towards the spread of COVID-19 and perceived high risk of contracting COVID-19. Education intervention using awareness to increase public knowledge and perception towards COVID-19 in Bangladesh should target male participants who practiced low quarantine and are less worried about the spread of such novel coronavirus even as the physical distancing persists.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202205.0094.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Pharmacology & Toxicology Keywords: COVID-19; Picrorhiza kurroa; AEV01; NEW Score; Immunomodulatory; unvaccinated elderly population
Online: 7 May 2022 (05:47:32 CEST)
Background: While several drugs are in the pipeline for treatment of various grades of COVID-19 disease, none of them have shown promise until now. Medicinal plants are crucial in developing and developed countries for their primary and basic health needs owing to better tolerability, superior compatibility with human body and having lesser side effects. AEV01 , a speciality extract of kutki (Picrorhiza kurroa), is one potential medicinal herb which can be effective for mild COVID19 in elderly patients at risk of complications and aging immunity. Purpose: The efficacy and safety of AEV01 for mild COVID-19 in elderly patients at risk of complications was investigated in this study. Study design: A prospective, phase 3, randomized, multicentric, placebo controlled double blinded parallel group interventional trial. Methods: This study was conducted in elderly patients diagnosed as COVID-19 with mild symptoms. 70 patients were randomized into two groups to receive AEV01 capsule (100mg) and placebo respectively thrice daily for 30 days along with standard care of treatment as per national WHO/ICMR guidelines. Clinical improvement timelines and corresponding scores using 8-point ordinal scale and NEWS were assessed for efficacy and safety of AEV01 in COVID-19 patients. Results: AEV01 group showed a significant improvement (P=0.0001) in the normalization of the SpO2 rate and relief from cough. There was also significant difference in time to recovery, with patients in the AEV01 drugtreated group recovering in 4.5 days as compared to Placebo in 9.1 days. ESR, LDH, serum ferritin, Neutrophil-Lymphocyte ratio (NLR), TNF- alpha, IL-6 and CD4 cell counts, which are considered as prognostic markers in COVID19 infected patients, showed a significant improvement in patients treated with AEV01. The AEV01 drug treated group showed significant clinical improvement in the 8-point ordinal scale severity rating and NEW Score from day 3 onwards which continued up to end of study. Conclusion: AEV01 has shown a significant improvement in clinical and laboratory parameters. There was also reduction in the progression of the COVID-19 disease in unvaccinated elderly patients from mild to moderate when treated at an earlier stage.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202004.0457.v2
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Pharmacology & Toxicology Keywords: Covid-19; desmosine; dp-ucMGP; elastic fibers; factor II; matrix Gla protein; PIVKA-II; protein S; vitamin K; vitamin K antagonist
Online: 29 May 2020 (04:16:20 CEST)
Background: A significant proportion of SARS-CoV-2-infected patients develops respiratory failure. Thromboembolism is also prevalent in coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). Vitamin K plays a role in coagulation and possibly also in lung diseases. We therefore hypothesized that vitamin K is implicated in Covid-19 pathogenesis. Methods: 134 Covid-19 patients and 184 controls were included. Inactive vitamin K-dependent matrix Gla protein (i.e.dp-ucMGP) and prothrombin (i.e. PIVKA-II) were measured, which are inversely related to respectively extrahepatic and hepatic vitamin K status. Desmosine was measured to quantify elastic fiber degradation. Lung involvement and arterial calcifications severity were assessed by computed tomography. Results Dp-ucMGP was elevated in Covid-19 patients compared to controls (P=0.001). Higher dp-ucMGP was found in Covid-19 patients with poor compared to better outcomes (P=0.002). PIVKA-II was normal in 81.8%, mildly elevated in 14.0% and moderately elevated in 4.1% of Covid-19 patients not using vitamin K antagonists. Dp-ucMGP in Covid-19 patients was correlated with desmosine (P<0.001), thoracic aortic calcification (P<0.001) but not with pneumonia severity. Conclusions: Extrahepatic vitamin K status was severely reduced in Covid-19 patients, as reflected by elevated inactive MGP, and related to poor outcome. Procoagulant prothrombin activity remained preserved in the majority of Covid-19 patients, which is compatible with the increased thrombogenicity that is frequently observed in severe Covid-19. Impaired MGP activation was linked to accelerated elastic fiber degradation and premorbid vascular calcifications. A trial should assess whether increasing MGP and protein S activity by vitamin K administration improves Covid-19 outcomes.
SHORT NOTE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0526.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Other Keywords: COVID-19; Unreported COVID-19 Death; Provisional COVID-19 Death; Death Reporting Discrepancy; Bangladesh
Online: 22 July 2020 (11:32:05 CEST)
Objective: We aim to assess the reporting discrepancy and the difference between confirmed and unreported COVID-19-like death counts.Study Design: The study is based on time-series data.Methods: We used publicly available data to explore the differences between confirmed death counts and deaths with Codiv-19 symptoms between March 8, 2020, and July 11, 2020, in Bangladesh.Results: During the week ending May 9, 2020, the unreported COVID-19-like death count was higher than the confirmed COVID-19 death count; however, it was lower in the following weeks. On average, unreported COVID-19-like death counts were similar to the confirmed COVID-19 death counts during the same period. However, the reporting authority neither considers these deaths nor adjusts for potential seasonal influenza or other related deaths, which might produce incomplete COVID-19 data and respective mortality rates. Conclusions: Documenting unreported deaths with COVID-19 symptoms needs to be included in provisional death counts because it is essential to estimate a robust COVID-19 mortality rate and to offer data-driven pandemic response strategies. An urgent initiative is needed to prepare an acceptable guideline for COVID-19 death reporting.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202006.0369.v1
Subject: Life Sciences, Biophysics Keywords: temperature extreme; warm climate; low-and middle-income economies; COVID-19; mortality; mixed effect modelling
Online: 30 June 2020 (11:38:15 CEST)
We performed a global analysis with data from 149 countries to test whether temperature can explain the spatial variability of the spread rate and mortality of COVID-19 at the global scale. We performed partial correlation analysis and linear mixed effect modelling to evaluate the association of the spread rate and motility of COVID-19 with maximum, minimum, average temperatures and temperature extreme (difference between maximum and minimum temperature) and other environmental and socioeconomic parameters. After controlling the effect of the duration after the first positive case, partial correlation analysis revealed that temperature was not related with the spatial variability of the spread rate of COVID-19. Mortality was negatively related with temperature in the countries with high-income economies. In contrast, temperature extreme was significantly and positively correlated with mortality in the low-and middle-income countries. Taking the country heterogeneity into account, mixed effect modelling revealed that inclusion of temperature as a fixed effect in the model significantly improved model skill predicting mortality in the low-and middle-income countries. Our analysis suggest that warm climate may reduce the mortality rate in high-income economies but in low and middle-income countries temperature extreme may increase the mortality risk.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0227.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Psychiatry & Mental Health Studies Keywords: COVID-19; depression; anxiety; post-acute COVID-19 syndrome; post-COVID
Online: 12 August 2022 (04:56:33 CEST)
Background: This study aimed to examine the course of Depression and anxiety in COVID-19 survivors with a psychiatric history compared with those without a psychiatric history. Methods: A web-based cross-sectional survey for COVID-19 survivors was conducted from July to September 2021. 6016 COVID-19 survivors, the accuracy of whose responses was determined to be assured, were included in analyses. Exposures included psychiatric history and time since COVID-19 infection, and the main outcomes and measures included severity of depression and anxiety, as assessed using the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) and Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7 (GAD-7), respectively. Results: Mean severity of PHQ-9 and GAD-7 were significantly higher in participants with a psychiatric history than in those without a psychiatric history. Two-way analysis of covariance for PHQ-9 showed a significant main effect of the presence of psychiatric history and a significant interaction effect of psychiatric history × time since infection. Two-way analysis of covariance for the GAD-7 score revealed a significant main effect of the presence of psychiatric history and time since COVID-19 infection and the interaction effect of these factors. Conclusions: The course of depression and anxiety was more severe in COVID-19 survivors with a psychiatric history than in those without a psychiatric history.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202108.0053.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Accounting Keywords: teacher burnout; well-being; self-control; positive emotionality; professional experience; psychological profile; COVID-19
Online: 2 August 2021 (15:32:37 CEST)
Teacher burnout has been revealed to be one of the most common negative consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic The purpose of this study was to identify distinct psychological resources and burnout risk profiles of teachers and to examine their association with Kolb’s Educator Roles and the professional experience. Methods: The survey data were collected from 330 preschool and primary school (84 males, Mage = 38.3, SD = 9.14) teachers using a convenience sampling method. Results: The two-step cluster analysis revealed two distinct profiles. The first profile, ‘High psychological resources, no burnout risk’, was characterised by absent symptoms of burnout and increased levels of well-being, self-control, and positive emotionality. The second profile, ‘Moderate psychological resources, mild burnout’, was associated with medium levels of well-being, self-control and positive emotionality accompanied by mild burnout. Our findings highlighted that cluster 1 had a significantly higher score for the Facilitator role and cluster 2 for the Expert and Coach roles. In addition, teachers with less professional experience were more likely to belong to cluster 1, taking into account their good skills on digital literacy. Conclusions: These findings help to provide new insights into the explanation of teacher burnout and the design of intervention programmes.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0326.v3
Subject: Social Sciences, Econometrics & Statistics Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-Cov-2; coronavirus; sample selection bias; bivariate probit; social distancing; public goods; macroeconomic
Online: 9 June 2020 (07:46:26 CEST)
This paper surveys estimates of the transmission features of the novel coronavirus, and then proposes a model to address sample-selection bias in estimated determinants of infection. Containment assumptions of the infection forecasting models depend on assumed effects of policies and self-regulating behavior. In the commons dilemma of the pandemic, the perceived ‘low risks’ of unregulated marginal choices do not reflect the full social cost, implying non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) to reduce mortality can enhance social welfare. As more economic activity renews with liftings of restrictive NPI (RNPI), a critical question concerns the ability of milder NPI (MNPI) and voluntary precautions to mitigate the risk of greater infections and deaths while also limiting the pandemic’s economic damage and its social costs. Ineffective NPI could lead to continued COVID-19 waves and new types of crises, worsened expectations and delayed economic recoveries. From the central range of surveyed estimates of transmission and alternative herd-immunity-threshold estimates, a ‘worst-case’ virus guidepost suggests eventual deaths of around 25 to 41 million worldwide and 1.1 to 1.7 million in the U.S. needed to reach herd immunity with no vaccine or treatment. The most optimistic study surveyed (theoretical model from a non-reviewed preprint study) combined with the low end of the range of the estimated mortality rate suggests 6 to 9 million deaths worldwide and 250 to 370 thousand in the U.S. to reach herd immunity. Successes in the mix of NPI, treatments, and vaccine can limit the eventual global death toll of the virus. Improved estimation models for forecasting and decision making may assist in better targeting the local timings and mix of NPI. Diagnostic tests for the virus have been largely limited to symptomatic cases, causing possible sample selection bias. A recursive bivariate probit model of infection and testing is proposed along with several possible applications from cross-section or panel-data estimation. Multiple potential explanatory variables, data sources, and estimation needs are specified and discussed.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202004.0361.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, General Medical Research Keywords: COVID-19; pandemic; asymptomaticspread; early-stage COVID-19 mitigation
Online: 20 April 2020 (06:18:33 CEST)
Background: Early-stage interventions in a potential pandemic are important tounderstand as they can make the difference between runaway exponential growththat is hard to turn back and stopping the spread before it gets that far. COVID-19 is an interesting case study because there have been very different outcomesin different localities. These variations are best studied after the fact if precisionis the goal; while a pandemic is still unfolding less precise analysis is of value inattempting to guide localities in the early stages to learn lessons of those that pre-ceded them. Methods: I examine three factors that could differentiate strategy: asymptomaticspread, differences in use of the Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) tuberculosis vac-cine and cloth face masks.Results:Differences in disease progression as well as the possibility of alternativestrategies to prevent COVID-19 from entering the runaway phase or damping itdown later can be elucidated by a study of asymptomatic infection. A study todemonstrate not only what fraction are asymptomatic but how contagious they arewill also inform policy on universal mask wearing. Conclusions: While a COVID-19 outbreak is at a level that makes accurate trace-and test possible, investigation of asymptomatic transmission is viable and shouldbe attempted to enhance understanding of spread and variability in the disease aswell as policy options for slowing the spread.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202112.0413.v1
Online: 24 December 2021 (23:40:18 CET)
Background Recently, a surge of COVID 19 was observed globally, regionally and nationally. With increasing numbers of cases, the frequency of long COVID is on the rise. Management and control of long COVID depend on changes in respect of human behaviors and requires an understanding of knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) regarding health threats. MethodsA descriptive cross sectional study using online survey to gather data on the socio-economic background, knowledge, attitudes and practices on long-term complications of COVID. Results: Out of 201 respondents, 89.2% participants have heard about long-term complications of COVID 19. Only 35.9% have demonstrated adequate knowledge in the questions relating to co-morbidities and risk factors of COVID-19. A total of 92.2% believe that they should adhere to preventive measures following vaccination. Less than 60 % were following the advice on avoiding unnecessary travel and crowded places. Further, less than 50% were following COVID preventive measures. ConclusionAlthough the majority of participants have heard about long-term complications and common symptoms, the knowledge regarding co-morbidities that can lead to severe disease and long COVID was not satisfactory. The attitudes of the participants indicated increasing concern about long COVID. Practices indicate lack of adherence to key measures such as avoiding crowded places. These findings highlight the need for further increasing of awareness.
Online: 21 July 2020 (13:46:45 CEST)
Today, we are all threatened by an unprecedented pandemic: COVID-19. How different is it from other coronaviruses? Will it be attenuated or become more virulent? Which animals may be its original host? In this study, we analyzed 377 publicly available complete genome sequences for the COVID-19 virus, the previously known flu-causing coronaviruses (HCov-229E, HCov-OC43, HCov-NL63 and HCov-HKU1) and the lethal, pathogenic P3/P4 viruses, SARS, MERS, Victoria, Lassa, Yamagata, Ebola, and Dengue. We found strong similarities between the current circulating COVID-19 and SARS and MERS, as well as COVID-19 in rhinolophines and pangolins. On the contrary, COVID-19 shares little similarity with the flu-causing coronaviruses and the other P3/P4 viruses. Strikingly, we observed divergence of COVID-19 strains isolated from human hosts has steadily increased from December 2019 to March 2020, suggesting COVID-19 is actively evolving in human hosts. From all existing human COVID-19 genome sequences, we calculated the first common model that represents the shared sequences of the human COVID-19 strains, which provides important information for vaccine and antibody development. Geographic and time-course analysis of the evolutionary trees of the human COVID-19 reveals possibly heterogeneous evolutional paths among strains from 21 countries. This finding has important implications to the management of COVID-19 and the development of vaccines.
CASE REPORT | doi:10.20944/preprints202006.0269.v1
Online: 21 June 2020 (11:59:21 CEST)
Understanding the clinical conditions and outcomes of Covid-19 infected patients with immunodeficiency like HIV will be an information for improving management and treatment modalities. It was reported a patient of HIV plus clinical confirmed Covid-19 in this presentation.
SHORT NOTE | doi:10.20944/preprints202003.0077.v4
The Ongoing COVID-19 Epidemic Curves Indicate Initial Point Spread in China With Log-Normal Distribution of New Cases per Day With a Predictable Last Date of the Outbreak Version 4: Predictions for Selected European Countries, USA and the World as a Whole and Try to Predict the End of the Outbreak Including a Discussion of a Possible “New Normal”
Online: 19 April 2020 (08:15:10 CEST)
During an epidemic outbreak it is useful for planners and responsible authorities to be able to plan ahead to estimate when an outbreak of an epidemic is likely to ease and when the last case can be predicted in their area of responsibility. Theoretically this could be done for a point source epidemic using epidemic curve forecasting. The extensive data now coming out of China makes it possible to test if this can be done using MS Excel a standard spreadsheet program available to most offices. The available data is divided up for whole China and the different provinces. This and the high number of cases makes the analysis possible. Data for new confirmed infections for Hubei, Hubei outside Wuhan, China excluding Hubei as well as Zhejiang and Fujian provinces all follow a log-normal distribution that can be used to make a rough estimate for the date of the last new confirmed cases in respective areas. In the version 2 continuation work, 9 additional days were added for the Chinese data to evaluate the previous predictions. The extra data then available from China follows the previous predicted trend supporting the usefulness of this simple technique. In the version 2 we also tested the feasibility for a non-specialist to make similar predictions using additional data from S Korea now available. In this third continuation the predictions for Version 2 are evaluated for S Korea and fits well the beginning of the decline but it seems to be difficult to bring down numbers of cases per day under about 100 new cases per day, potential reasons for this is discussed. To further evaluate when in a prediction becomes reliable the Chinese data was used to evaluate to make predictions for each day around the peak in number of cases and after2-3 consecutive days of decreasing new cases per day the prediction becomes reliable. In version 3 data for Italy just reaching this point was used to make further predictions for that country. A second new analysis was also added to use the fitted equation to detect when the acceleration of new cases per day stopped increasing exponentially. In the Chinese case this measured point coincides with the date of the complete Hubei lockdown and in the new Italian analysis it coincides with the mandatory Italian lockdown. Predicted dates for the end of the Italian outbreak is also added. In version 4 we expand the analysis to selected European countries, USA and the World as a whole and try to predict the end of the outbreak. We further discuss the apparent success of the used techniques that might work to introduce a “new normal” not very different to the previous to stop secondary outbreaks of COVID19 and future COVIDs that are sure to come.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202103.0490.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Allergology Keywords: Covid-19; Long Covid-19; Long Haulers Covid; Post Covid-19 Syndrome; Post-Acute Covid-19; Corona Virus; SARS-Cov-2; Novel Corona Virus 2019; Post-Acute SARS-CoV-2; PASC, Post-Acute Sequelae of COVID-19; Late Sequelae COVID-19
Online: 18 March 2021 (17:16:52 CET)
Introduction: Despite more than one year passed since the first cases of SARS-CoV-2 were reported, there is still no consensus on the definition and clinical management of post-acute-COVID-19. The condition has heterogeneously been named as Chronic COVID syndrome, Post COVID-19 Syndrome, post-acute sequela of SARS-CoV-2 (PASC), and the more familiar long COVID. Method: In order to capture all relevant published studies, we undertook a multi-step search with no language restriction. The following four-step search strategy was utilized: First, a preliminary (limited) search was conducted on January 20, 2021, in Google Scholar and PubMed to identify the appropriate keywords. Then, on January 30, 2021, we adopted a search strategy of electronic databases from Cochrane Library, PsycINFO, PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Web of sciences, using those keywords. Then, after duplicate removal, we screened all titles, abstracts, and full texts. This resulted in 66 eligible studies. Subsequently, after a forward and backward search of their references and citations an additional 54 publications were found, resulting in a total of 120 publications that formed the basis of the present analysis. The titles, abstracts, and full-texts of non-English articles were translated using Google Translate for further evaluation. We conducted our scoping review based on the PRISMA-ScR Checklist.Results: We found only one randomized clinical trial in our search. Of the 67 original studies, 22 were cohort and 28 were cross-sectional studies totaling 74.6% of the original studies. Of the total of 120 publications, 59 (49.1%) focused on signs and symptoms, 28 (23.3%) were focused on management, and 13 (10.8%) focused on pathophysiology. Ten (9%) publications focused on imaging studies. Ninety-one percent of the original investigations came from high and upper-middle-income countries, highlighting the scarcity of reports originating from low-income and lower-middle-income countries.Conclusion: The predominant symptoms among those with the so-called “Long COVID” were: fatigue, breathlessness, arthralgia, sleep difficulties, and chest pain. Recent reports also point to the risk of long-term sequela with cutaneous, respiratory, cardiovascular, musculoskeletal, mental health, neurologic, and renal involvement in those who survive the acute phase of the illness. The ambiguity and controversies in its definition have impaired proper recognition and management of those requiring additional support following the resolution of the acute phase of this infection. This has resulted in long-standing distress for the patients and their families. Our findings highlight the need for a multidisciplinary approach, support, and rehabilitation for these patients in terms of long-term mental and physical health.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0588.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, General Medical Research Keywords: retrospective cohort study; COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; health care workers; risk of infection
Online: 27 August 2020 (03:25:18 CEST)
Purpose: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the health care workers (HCWs) at the frontline have been largely exposed to infected patients, running an high risk of being infected by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. This study investigates the epidemiological, clinical and lifestyles characteristics that might play roles in the susceptibility of HCWs to COVID-19 in a hit Italian hospital. Methods:Demographic, lifestyle, work-related and comorbidities data of 1447 HCWs which underwent a nasopharyngeal swab for SARS-CoV-2 were retrospectively collected. For the 164 HCWs positive for SARS-CoV-2, data about safety in the workplace, symptoms and clinical course of COVID-19 were also collected. Cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection was estimated. Risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection were assessed using a multivariable Poisson regression. Results: The cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection among the screened HCWs was 11.33 (9.72-13.21). Working in a COVID-19 ward, being a former smoker (vs being a person who never smoked) and BMI were positively associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection, whereas being a current smoker was negatively associated with this variable. Conclusions: Assuming an equal accessibility and proper use of PPE of all the HCWs of our Hospital, the great and more prolonged contact with COVID-19 patients remains the crucial risk factor for SARS-CoV-2. Therefore, increased and particular care needs to be focused specifically on the most exposed HCWs groups, which should be safeguarded. Furthermore, in order to limit the risk of asymptomatic spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection, the HCWs mild symptoms of COVID-19 should be considered when evaluating the potential benefits of universal staff testing
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202209.0400.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Nursing & Health Studies Keywords: COVID 19; health personnel; Burnout, Psychological; COVID 19 stress syndrome
Online: 26 September 2022 (11:42:28 CEST)
Purpose: The healthcare pressure and emotional tension during the first year of the COVID 19 pandemic have been able to affect the health of healthcare personnel. Physical and psychological symptoms attributed to a work situation and or COVID 19 infection are describ ed in health professionals. Objective: to analyze the prevalence of physical and psychological symptoms directly or indirectly related to COVID 19 (occupational causes, illness or persistent COVID 19) after a 12 month pandemic. Methods: #COVID19PS is a cro ss sectional analytical study using an ad hoc questionnaire distributed through social media to record physical and psychological symptoms related to COVID 19 in health professionals. Variables: age, sex, geographical origin, profession, characteristics of the work environment, physical symptoms, Maslach test ( for health professionals. Univariate and bivariate statistical analysis using t distribution, Chi square, ANOVA using IBM SPSS v20®. Results: N=1.159 ( women, 21.8% men; 44.6% <35 years old, 23.9% between 35 45years); 96.5% Spaniards. Professions: 17.1% medicine, 12.7% nursing, 32% physiotherapy, 24.1% occupational therapy, 14.1% others; 47.5% belonged to direct care for COVID 19 patients. 28.2% had passed the disease and 3.7% had it acti ve. 61.6% had physical symptoms ( neurological, 31.7% musculoskeletal, 29.6% general, 20.9% gastrointestinal, 20.3% skin, 19.2% cardiovascular, 16% respiratory (p= 96.9% had a medium high Burnout index (p= 48.3% with high levels of Emot ional Exhaustion, 62.9% with medium high level of Depersonalization and 74% with medium low levels of Personal Accomplishment. Conclusion: all health professions present high rates of physical and burnout consequences of the first year of COVID 19 pandemic.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202205.0415.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Other Keywords: COVID-19; Coronavirus; Vaccine hesitancy; COVID-19 Vaccine; Saudi Arabia
Online: 31 May 2022 (09:22:49 CEST)
On 11th March 2020, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 as a pandemic. Vaccination programs have advanced greatly in the global health period, despite widespread anti-vaccination attitudes and misinformation. Vaccine hesitancy of COVID-19 vaccine is currently a major issue in Saudi Arabia. This cross-sectional study was carried out from June 25, 2021 to October 2021 in order to investigate the knowledge levels of acceptance and hesitancy of COVID-19 vaccine among Saudi’s nationals. The data was collected through a close-ended structured questionnaire from a total of 565 respondents. Overall, 78.41% respondents were female, 62.48% having university level education and 61.06% were unemployed. Majority of the participants 82.30% (n=465) think that Pfizer vaccine has the highest efficiency against COVID-19. Our study concludes that majority of the participants have satisfactory knowledge about COVID-19 vaccination. Concerns over vaccine components, effectiveness of vaccine and possible side effects are among the key causes for vaccine hesitancy.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202103.0416.v1
Online: 16 March 2021 (11:54:28 CET)
CoVID-19 is a multi-symptomatic disease which has made a global impact due to its ability to spread rapidly, and its relatively high mortality rate. Beyond the heroic efforts to develop vaccines, which we will not discuss, the response of scientists and clinicians to this complex problem has reflected the need to detect CoVID-19 rapidly, to diagnose patients likely to show adverse symptoms, and to treat severe and critical CoVID-19. Here we aim to encapsulate these varied and sometimes conflicting approaches and the resulting data in terms of chemistry and biology. In the process we highlight emerging concepts, and potential future applications that may arise out of this immense effort.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202006.0275.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, General Medical Research Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; real-time RT-PCR; COVID-19 symptoms; COVID-19 hematological findings; Bangladesh
Online: 21 June 2020 (14:47:03 CEST)
Objective: SARS-Cov-2 infection or COVID-19 is a global pandemic. From the time of identification to till, multiple clinical symptoms and parameters have been identified by the researchers of various countries and regions regarding the diagnosis and presentations of COVID-19 disease. In this manuscript, we investigated the primary symptoms and basic hematological presentations of SARS-CoV-2 infection among the Bangladeshi patients. Methodology: We have collected the disease history of mild to moderate degree of COVID-19 patients; hematological and biochemical on admission reports of moderate degree COVID-19 patients. All of them were tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by RT-PCR in different institutes in Bangladesh. Results: According to this study though COVID-19 patients in Bangladesh commonly presented with fever, cough, fatigue, shortness of breath, and sore throat, but symptoms like myalgia, diarrhea, skin rash, headache, Abdominal pain/cramp, nausea, vomiting, restlessness, and a higher temperature of >1000F have a greater presentation rate and more frequent than other published studies. CRP and Prothrombin time was found to increase in all the patients. Serum ferritin, ESR, SGPT, and D-Dimer were found increased among 53.85%, 80.43, 44%, and 25% patients respectively. 17.39% of the patients had leukocytosis and neutrophilia. 28.26% of patients presented with lymphocytopenia. 62.52% of patients had mild erythrocytopenia. Conclusion: Despite some similarities, our study has evaluated a different expression in presenting symptoms in the case of COVID-19 patients in Bangladesh. CRP, Prothrombin time, serum ferritin, ESR, SGPT, D-Dimer, erythrocytopenia, and lymphocytopenia can be initial diagnostic hematological findings and assessment for prognosis COVID-19 disease. Also, gender variations have a different scenario of clinical and laboratory appearance in this region.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202009.0500.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, General Medical Research Keywords: COVID-19; impact on society during COVID-19; behavioral impact of COVID-19; government policies against COVID-19; measures adopted by the government; COVID-19 Statistics; Infection rate and Data analysis
Online: 21 September 2020 (11:09:11 CEST)
Background: COVID-19 pandemic has pulled us all a few steps back, were we never shake hands or hug each other when we meet our friends and family after a gap, but instead we greet them by saying Namaste and joining our hands together. As we all know, COVID-19 spreads through air and the only way to shield ourselves is by maintaining a safe distance from one another. Methodology: In order to conduct a meta-analysis on the number of COVID-19 cases in Kerala and India, the data was retrieved from various sites hosted by the government bodies. The data for analysis was collected from May 2020 to July 2020. The average number of days required to reach every 5000 fresh cases were also calculated using this data. COVID-19 has affected all the economy holistically regardless of financial, behavioral, or societal aspects. Conclusion: Lifting of the lockdown in a step by step process keeping in mind the necessities for the nation was a thoughtful act, but the people who mistook this opportunity and did not remain in quarantine after coming from abroad was recognized as the reasons behind the sudden and uncontrolled rise in the number of COVID-19 cases in Kerala, India. The government authorities had no other option but to lift the restrictions to reduce the economic burdens that had already affected the daily wage worker and farmers prompting them to give up their lives.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202109.0037.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Psychiatry & Mental Health Studies Keywords: COVID-19; disability; risk factors; communication; medical rehabilitation; psychosomatic patients; general public; infection; physical health; psychological health
Online: 2 September 2021 (12:08:42 CEST)
Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic, hygiene behaviors such as keeping distance, avoid-ing masses, wearing face masks and adhering to hand hygiene recommendations became impera-tive. The current study aims to determine factors interrelating with hygiene behaviors. Methods: 4,049 individuals (1,305 male, 2,709 female, aged 18-80 years) were recruited from rehabilitation clinics or freely on the internet and surveyed via online questionnaire between May 2020 and August 2021. Socio-demographics, hygiene behaviors, emotions (fear), life-satisfaction, risk factors and disability as well as communication were assessed. Results: Prevalence for hygiene behaviors was: keeping the distance 84.9%, avoiding mass gatherings 84.6%, wearing face masks 96.5% and hand hygiene 80.7%. Hygiene behaviors were significantly related to fear with linear and quad-ratic associations. Conclusion: Individuals with disabilities, risk factors and psychological symp-toms are more compliant. Especially hand hygiene should be targeted to achieve higher compli-ance rates. A medium level of fear is more functional than too elevated fear. Behavioral interven-tions and targeted communication aiming at improving different behaviors in orchestration can help individuals to remain healthy and maintain a high life-satisfaction. Thereby, communication in the healthcare setting is imperative and all involved individuals should become more aware of this to ensure high hygiene standards and patient safety.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0265.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Nutrition Keywords: vitamin D; cathelicidin; antimicrobial peptides; bacteria; mycobacteria; virus; coronavirus; sunshine; UVB phototherapy; tuberculosis; COVID-19; photosynthesis
Online: 16 May 2020 (16:02:26 CEST)
Abstract: A primary action of vitamin D is regulation of gene transcription. Many cell types possess genes that make antimicrobial peptides (AMPS) (endogenous antibiotics), recently discovered to be regulated by vitamin D. Two examples are cathelicidin and beta defensins, both bioactive against many different bacteria, fungi, mycobacteria, parasites and viruses. The signal transduction pathway is triggered by sensing microorganisms via cell surface receptors, causing intracellular production of calcitriol (1,25(OH)2D) and vitamin D receptors, leading to upregulation of AMP production. Serum 25(OH)D concentrations required to sustain adequate AMP production to eradicate infections are unknown. Vitamin D3 is photosynthesized in skin in amounts ranging from 10,000 (250 mcg) to 25,000 (625 mcg) International Units (IU) from 7-dehydrocholesterol after whole-body exposure to one minimal erythemal dose (MED) of ultraviolet B (UVB) radiation, and is impacted by many factors including geographic localities, seasonal changes and skin pigmentation. We and others have reported extended daily oral dosing with these amounts of vitamin D3 safe. We routinely observe serum 25(OH)D concentrations below 20ng/ml on new admissions, which have been reported insufficient to sustain AMP production. In contrast serum 25(OH)D concentrations above 100ng/ml have been reported after serial UVB treatments for psoriasis. Little vitamin D naturally occurs in food, and insufficient sun exposure may be causing worldwide deficiency. We review evidence suggesting that higher daily intakes of vitamin D3 than the currently recommended 600 (15 mcg) IU/day may be necessary to sustain AMP production in the face of an overwhelming infection, particularly in non-Hispanic blacks, a high risk population suffering the worst outcomes from COVID-19. We propose that increased vitamin D supplementation could provide a safe and cost-effective way to protect all populations from infections, in particular those from pandemic COVID-19.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202206.0024.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, General Medical Research Keywords: second COVID-19 booster; vaccination; COVID-19; willingness; predictors; general population
Online: 2 June 2022 (04:07:07 CEST)
Given the concerns of waning immunity from the primary COVID-19 vaccines and the first booster dose, we conducted an on-line cross-sectional study in May 2022 to investigate willingness to receive a second COVID-19 booster dose or a new COVID-19 vaccine and its associated factors. Overall, 22.7% of participants were willing to be vaccinated, 39.3% were unsure, but tend to be willing, 25.8% were unsure, 4.9% were unsure, but tend to be unwilling, and 7.4% were unwilling to be vaccinated. The main reasons against accepting a second COVID‐19 booster dose or a new COVID-19 vaccine COVID-19 dose included concerns about the side effects, the opinion that further vaccination is unnecessary, and effectiveness uncertainties. Males, younger individuals, participants without a previous COVID-19 diagnosis, and those with good/very good self-perceived physical health were significantly more frequently willing to receive a second COVID‐19 booster dose or a new COVID-19 vaccine. Also, increased fear of the COVID-19, increased trust in COVID-19 vaccination and decreased fear of a second booster dose or a new COVID-19 vaccine were associated with increased willingness. Our results show some hesitancy and unwillingness toward further COVID-19 vaccination and indicate that fear of COVID-19 and trust in COVID-19 vaccination affect public opinion
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202009.0619.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Psychiatry & Mental Health Studies Keywords: COVID-19 Mexico; stress in healthcare professionals; COVID-19 stress scale
Online: 26 September 2020 (08:07:00 CEST)
The world is currently, subjected to the worst health crisis documented in modern history; an epidemic led by the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). At the epicenter of this crisis, healthcare professionals continue working to safeguard our well-being. To the regular high levels of stress, COVID new heights even more to healthcare professionals so depending on the area, specialty, and type of work. Here we investigated what are the tendencies, or areas most affected. Through an adaptation of the original COVID-stress scale, we developed a remote, fast test designed for healthcare professionals of the Northeastern part of Mexico, an important part of the country with economic and cultural ties to the US. Our results showed 4 key correlations as highly dependent: Work area – Xenophobia (p < 0.045), Work with COVID patients - Traumatic stress (p < 0.001) and Total number of COVID patients per day – Traumatic stress (p < 0.027), and Total number of COVID patients - Compulsive checking and reassurance. Overall concluding that normal levels of stress have increased (mild – moderate). Additionally, we further determine that the fear of being an asymptomatic patient (potential to spread without knowing) continues being a concern.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202009.0153.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, General Medical Research Keywords: Virus; Vaccine; SARS-CoV-2; Coronavirus; Covid-19; Covid-19 vaccine
Online: 7 September 2020 (03:46:59 CEST)
This tutorial is organized into three major sections—viruses, vaccines and the race for a Covid-19 vaccine. The goal is to provide enough background on viruses, history of vaccines, and the science of vaccinology founded on the principles of immunity. The hope is that this will enable us to understand the challenges, methods and prospects for developing a safe and effective vaccine against SARS-CoV-2. Many important viruses such as smallpox, HIV, HCV and SARS-CoV-2 which is responsible for causing the Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) are presented in detail, which is then followed by a description of different vaccine development methods and strategies. The tutorial then discusses different candidate SARS-CoV-2 vaccines and provides specific details of many of the prospective vaccines on the leader-board which are undergoing clinical trials. The tutorial concludes with a realistic projection for a safe and effective vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 based on the historical scientific record.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202003.0378.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Other Keywords: China's COVID-19 Guide; Remdesivir; Xuebijing; Hydroxychloroquine; IL6 inhibitors; COVID-19
Online: 26 March 2020 (01:48:42 CET)
Currently, there is no specific treatment for COVID-19 proven by clinical trials. WHO and CDC guidelines therefore endorse supportive care only. However, frontline clinicians have been applying several virus-based and host-based therapeutics in order to combat SARS-CoV-2. Medications from COVID-19 case reports, observational studies and the COVID-19 Treatment Guideline issued by the China's National Health Commission (7th edition published March 3rd, 2020. Edited translation attached) are evaluated in this review. Key evidence from relevant in vitro researches, animal models and clinical studies in SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV are examined. Antiviral therapies remdesivir, lopinavir/ritonavir and umifenovir, if considered, could be initiated before the peak of viral replication for optimal outcomes. Ribavirin may be beneficial as an add-on therapy and is ineffective as a monotherapy. Corticosteroids use should be limited without indicating comorbidities. IVIG is not recommended due to lack of data in COVID-19. Xuebijing may benefit patients with complications of bacterial pneumonia or sepsis. The efficacy of interferon is unclear due to conflicting outcomes in SARS and MERS studies. Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine have shown in vitro inhibition of SARS-CoV-2 and may be beneficial as both prophylactic and treatment therapy. For patients who developed cytokine release syndrome, interleukin-6 inhibitors may be beneficial. Given the rapid disease spread and increasing mortality, active treatment with readily available medications may be considered timely prior to disease progression.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202004.0007.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Pharmacology & Toxicology Keywords: nCov-19, COVID-19, coronavirus, SARS-CoV
Online: 1 April 2020 (09:30:00 CEST)
Coronaviruse disease (COVID-19) outbreak has created an emergency globally, and social distancing and isolation is the only solution to prevent its spread. Several countries have announced fully locked on to tackle this pandemic. The recent COVID-2019 has shaken the globe with incidence cases of more than half-million cases, and a mortality toll of more than twenty thousand to date. The coronavirus family is inclusive of pathogen of both – animal species and humans, encapsulating the isolated severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV). Researchers round the globe have been dexterously working to decode this lethal virus. Many mathematical frameworks have also been depicted which have helped to understand the dynamics of the COVID-19. Research on coronaviruses continues to explore various aspects of viral replication and pathogenesis to understanding the predilection of these viruses to switch between species, to develop an infection in a new host, and to identify significant reservoirs of coronaviruses will dramatically aid in our potential to prophesize when and where potential epidemics may occur. Many of the non-structural and accessory proteins encoded by the viruses remain unclear and unknown. This systematic review highlights the current situation of the pandemic, virus genomic composition, pathogenesis, symptomatology, diagnosis, and prognosis along with mathematical models of disease transmission and dynamics.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202106.0152.v1
Online: 7 June 2021 (08:29:46 CEST)
Fighting against the COVID-19 pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus is one of the most critical challenges facing the global health system today. The possibility to identify the group of persons in the cohort of people under 50 years old, who are sensitive to the COVID-disease by non-invasive methods, is a very perspective approach for estimating the epidemiological state of the human population. The study aimed to identify the features of people's faces with COVID-19 that the most correlate with disease severity could serve as one of these approaches. For this aim, 525 photos of patients' faces with different outcomes of COVID-19 disease were analyzed using the Dlib face recognition convolutional neural network pre-trained for face recognition. Face descriptor vectors were obtained using the convolutional neural network. Facial features were found that predict a person's sensitivity to the SARS-CoV-2 virus (disease severity), and the contribution of each of the features to the risk of developing a severe form of COVID in a person was found. The accuracy of the binary classification of the individual severity of the COVID-19 course using the k-nearest neighbors algorithm on the test dataset was accuracy - 84%, AUC - 0.90.
Online: 17 May 2021 (17:06:31 CEST)
The most severe threat that the Covid-19 pandemic poses to the global economy is the need to choose between human lives and livelihoods. Bangladesh must assess the implications of such impacts on Bangladesh's macro-financial scenario to maintain the economy's current high growth trajectory. The paper outlines the major Covid-19 shock wave transmission channels to the four major sectors of the Bangladesh economy. Authorities around the world have taken every precaution possible to halt the spread of the pandemic. An aggregate transmission framework that includes these four sectors is required to contain the impact of Covid-19 can propagate through these sectors and eventually impact macro-financial stability.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202104.0139.v1
Online: 5 April 2021 (14:00:43 CEST)
Resilience is an adaptive coping mechanism needed by health workers, especially nurses who have longer working hours than other health workers to provide care to patients in the era of the Covid-19 pandemic which is a global health problem. The aim of this literature review is to identify the resilience of nurses during the covid-19 pandemic the 21 st century global nursing paradigm. This language method uses literature reviews which are summaries of 10 articles in the publication years of 2020-2021 on search 4 databased electronic searches contain namely Scopus, ProQuest, Pubmed, and Scient Direct. This review used prisms. The eligibility of these studies were from its title, abstract, research methodology, results and discussion. The results of the review were presented in narrative form. The results of a review of 10 articles found that the form of psychological factors during the covid-19 pandemic, mental distress and influencing factors in nurses caring for patients with COVID-19, resilience nurses during the covid-19 pandemic. Conclusion: The 21 st century global nursing paradigm, one of the global problems in the health sector, with the outbreak of the corona virus disease (Covid-19), the role of nurses as the front guard is needed by the community to provide health services in line with the increasing incidence of covid-19 cases. Strong nurses need an adaptive inner coping mechanism.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202104.0078.v1
Online: 2 April 2021 (17:02:40 CEST)
Introduction: Corona Virus Disease 2019 causes health problems in the world in the form of a health crisis that results in psychological problems as fear and anxiety. The purpose of this study to determine the factors that influence psychological and stigma during the Covid-19 pandemic.Methods: This study is a literature review with five databases (Scopus, CINAHL, ScienceDirect, PubMed, and ProQuest), studies design used a cross-sectional or quasi-experimental, with a date of March 2021. The Center for Review and Dissemination and the JBI Guide are used to measure the Quality and Prism checklist for guide reviews. A feasibility study based on title, abstract, full text, and research methodology. The data analysis used narrative analysis based on the research findings.Results: Eleven articles met the predefined review inclusion criteria. Research is base on related factors psychology, related factors stigma, and factors related to psychological and stigma. Most of the factors associated with psychological conditions and stigma have a quasi-experimental and cross-sectional design. Participants averaged over a thousand for each study and discussed psychology factors related to the stigma. Conclusion: Factors related to psychological are age, education, symptoms and health conditions, gender, information, economy, exposure duration, and social support, while factors related to stigma are environment, history of comorbid diseases, discrimination, and public perceptions.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202102.0066.v1
Online: 1 February 2021 (17:34:13 CET)
In critically ill patients with COVID-19, concomitant abnormalities of coagulation have been seen with an unusually high incidence. Standard coagulation tests are limited in their ability accurately to reflect the severity of the pro-thrombotic phenotype observed in severe COVID-19 infections. In this narrative review we consider the role of rotational thromboelastometry (ROTEM) as a near bedside test allowing a more comprehensive assessment of haemostatic function in the context of COVID-19 infection. Comprehensive literature search was conducted on PubMed, revealing 13 publications on the subject. The coagulopathy of this disease process appears to be insufficiently represented with often normal conventional coagulation test parameters. Whilst not the perfect substitute for in vivo coagulation, studies utilising rotational thromboelastometry assays in COVID-19 patients have demonstrated increased maximum clot firmness (consistent with hyper-coagulability) and reduced maximum lysis (consistent with “fibrinolytic shutdown”). ROTEM appears to be a possible tool for risk stratification and to monitor the potential modulation of fibrinogen-dependent coagulation processes with enhanced anti-coagulation strategies. Precisely how these coagulation abnormalities can be modified by optimum, individualised medical interventions to improve clinical outcome, however, remains unclear.
BRIEF REPORT | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0607.v1
Online: 24 December 2020 (08:54:34 CET)
The Saudi government has undertaken rapid and swift actions, such as suspending Omrah and holding international flights. Such affirmative actions enhanced citizens and residents’ confidence in the government officials’ ability to fight the pandemic. However, there are more than 361,178 reported cases of Covid-19 with 6131 deaths as of December 22, 202. As nurses are the largest component of the health care workforce in Saudi Arabia, it is important that they are trained and have the skills and resources to adapt, whether on the frontline of a crisis or in a clinical environment. Nurses play a key function in fulfilling the needs of medical treatment by being the most important part of the health care delivery system.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202012.0173.v1
Online: 7 December 2020 (15:36:05 CET)
Culture, gender and religion are closely linked each other’s, profoundly affect the role of each person within the Society, and also affect the ability to access to the health resources. We are now living a worldwide crisis due to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. In order to appropriately tackle it, an alliance between science, politics and citizens is needed. In this article, we summarize current evidences of how religions can represent, on one hand, a risk moment for spreading the virus (in relation with overcrowded events), on the other, a precious opportunity to engage people, and in particular minorities, in fighting the pandemic. To win this fight, we need a multicultural approach that takes into account every aspect of human life, and among these religion, which influences so much culture, everyday life and well-being.
Online: 19 July 2020 (15:11:24 CEST)
Severe COVID-19 disease is characterised by an exaggerated inflammatory response, called cytokine storm, accompanied by a condition of immune depression. Even sepsis is characterised by an exaggerated inflammatory response, called SIRS (Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome), accompanied by a condition of immune depression called CARS (compensatory anti-inflammatory response syndrome). Clinical studies reveal that most sepsis patients who did not die during the hyper inflammatory response (SIRS) subsequently succumbed to the condition of immune depression (CARS). Severe acute pancreatitis begins with local inflammation that induces systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), accompanied and followed by a compensatory anti-inflammatory response (CARS). In COVID-19 disease, the male response to SARS CoV-2 virus is typically characterised by a robust inflammatory response. Instead, a cell-mediated immune response is dominant in women. This means that the male sex tends to have a more robust hyper inflammatory response than the female one. Furthermore, in women the condition of immune depression is less represented, therefore they are more protected. Sepsis, severe acute pancreatitis and COVID-19 disease evolve between two fundamental aspects: hyper inflammation and immunodepression. The experience gained over years of studies of sepsis and severe acute pancreatitis suggests that therapies should be differentiated according to the evolutionary stage of the disease. The goal is to save the lives of most patients with COVID-19 disease. The identification of critical points, suitable for designing the windows of therapeutic opportunity, may allow the use of therapeutic interventions, in the COVID-19 disease, which are effective (there are no approved drugs yet), safe (without significant side effects), targeted (based on the evolutionary phase of the disease) personalized, (based on sex, co-morbidities, age, etc.) and timely (based on signs, symptoms, laboratory parameters and instrumental investigations).
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202007.0228.v1
Online: 11 July 2020 (04:19:54 CEST)
Since the first confirmed case of COVID-19, information was spreading in large amounts over social media platforms. Information spreading about the COVID-19 pandemic can strongly influence people’s behavior. Therefore, identifying information superspreaders (or influencers) during the COVID-19 pandemic is an im- portant step towards understanding public reactions and information dissemination. In this work, we present an analysis over a large Arabic tweets collected during the COVID-19 pandemic. The presented study con- struct a network from users’ behaviors to identify information superspreaders during the month of March, 2020. We employed both HITS and PageRank algorithms to analyze the influence of information spreading, and compared the ranking of the users. The results show that both HITS and PageRank discovered a similar subset of superspreaders with 40% were found to be verified Twitter accounts.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202006.0009.v1
Online: 3 June 2020 (05:16:33 CEST)
Misinformation during the COVID-19 outbreak has shaped our perception of the disease. Some people thinkthe disease is a bioweapon while others are convinced that it is a hoax. Heightened anxiety often producesfearful rumors, some of which are absurd while others seem plausible and are laced with some truths. But, how does misinformation affect disease spread? In this paper, we construct a mathematical model parameterized by Ugandan data, to study the effect of misinformation on community COVID-19 spread. The analysis shows that misinformation leads to high number of COVID-19 cases in a community, and the effect is highest in the rumour initiators and spreaders. This analysis underscores the importance of addressing misinformation in COVID risk communication.
BRIEF REPORT | doi:10.20944/preprints202004.0424.v1
Online: 24 April 2020 (03:34:21 CEST)
The infected and fatal cases of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) keep increasing around the world, to explore the infection routes and pathogenesis of 2019-nCoV could be meaningful for prevention and treatment of COVID-19. Previous studies showed that the oral cavity is at potentially high risk of 2019-nCoV infection. The ACE2 receptor of 2019-nCoV was reported could express on oral epithelium and salivary glands, and 2019-nCoV could be detected in patients’ saliva. Recently, the amblygeustia were found to widely exist in the COVID-19 patients. To explore the potential mechanism of amblygeustia, we performed further analysis via independent in-house single-cell profiles. Our results showed that ACE2 was inclined to express in taste cells, which indicated that 2019-nCoV may invade into taste cells at the early stage of COVID-19, and lead to the amblygeustia of patients. Above findings about the 2019-nCoV and COVID-19 in oral cavity are valuable and enlightening for future epidemic prevention strategy.
BRIEF REPORT | doi:10.20944/preprints202004.0353.v1
Online: 19 April 2020 (16:54:43 CEST)
We have proposed a model considering two equally sized population (group A and group B) with low and high levels of disease tolerance. We have argued that in the more tolerant group (group B) the progression of the disease with respect to time will be slow with lower number of infections at any given time. We attribute this effect to the innate immunity which advantageously, can also be one of the major contributing factors for flattening the curve. We have compared the growth of Covid-19 disease in various countries to understand this effect.
DATASET | doi:10.20944/preprints202004.0263.v1
Online: 16 April 2020 (08:15:28 CEST)
The COVID-19 pandemic spread of the coronavirus across the globe has affected our lives on many different levels. The world we knew before the spread of the virus has become another one. Every country has taken preventive measures, including social distancing, travel restrictions, and curfew, to control the spread of the disease. With these measures implemented, people have shifted to social media platforms in the online sphere, such as Twitter, to maintain connections. In this paper, we describe a coronavirus data set of Arabic tweets collected from January 1, 2020, primarily from hashtags populated from Saudi Arabia. This data set is available to the research community to glean a better understanding of the societal, economical, and political effects of the outbreak and to help policy makers make better decisions for fighting this epidemic.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202003.0308.v1
Online: 20 March 2020 (07:01:44 CET)
Novel coronavirus (COVID-19) can lead to multiple organ injuries such as acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), acute renal injury (AKI) and so on. ACE2 is an important part of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) and a key protein needed for COVID-19 to invade cells. First of all, we searched the HPA, GTEx and FANTOM5 Databases and found that the expression of ACE2 in kidney tissue was significantly higher than that in lung tissue. Then, by searching the Nephroseq Database, it is further verified that ACE2 is highly expressed in renal tissue and plays a protective role in renal tissue. However, current studies have found that the incidence of AKI caused by COVID-19 is much lower than that of ARDS. Because of this, we further searched the proteins interacting with ACE2 protein through the STING Database and analyzed the expression of tissue protein mRNA in the HPA Database. It was noted that AGTR2 mRNA was highly expressed in lung tissue, but low in kidney tissue, and hard tissue specificity in lung tissue. Through further research, it is found that AGTR2 plays a major role in the development of pulmonary fibrosis. Therefore, AGTR2 may be a key protein in COVID-19 pneumonia, and AGTR2 may be a potential new therapeutic target for the treatment of COVID-19 patients.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202104.0120.v1
Subject: Earth Sciences, Environmental Sciences Keywords: Pre-COVID-19; Post-COVID-19; Secondary Schools; Water Demand; Groundwater; Nigeria
Online: 5 April 2021 (12:22:37 CEST)
The prevalence of corona virus and the novel COVID-19 disease in the entire globe has exacerbated different impact on socioeconomic spectrum in the world, including water use pattern. Thus a research was conducted to examine the comparative use of water during pre- and post-COVID-19 lockdown pattern among post-primary schools in Iwo, Osun State, Nigeria. A survey was conducted among fifteen schools which were randomly selected, but with eight public and seven private schools for the investigation. Both descriptive and inferential statistical techniques were used in data analysis. The results revealed that the major source of water to the schools investigated is ground water which is obtained through hand-dug wells and boreholes. It was further discovered that there was increase in water use during post-COVID-19 lockdown era as a result of the directive by the government that clean water should be provided for hand-washing by all schools regardless of the owner to curtail the spread of COVID-19 disease in the country. One sample t-test also revealed that there was a significant difference in water use at (p<0.01) level. It is recommended that the government and other stakeholders in water sector to ensure that all-time and non-seasonal dependent source of water be provided rather than ground water source which is susceptible to variations in water yields from seasonal variations. This will enable continuous clean water supply, for all purposes, including COVID-19 protocols.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202103.0474.v1
Subject: Social Sciences, Accounting Keywords: COVID-19; fear of COVID-19; mental health; emotional distress; social effects
Online: 18 March 2021 (11:01:24 CET)
The aim of the article is to determine the predictors of mental health among Polish society. Research was conducted after the first wave of the pandemic. Due to such an approach, it was possible to determine whether secondary effects of the pandemic have impact on mental health, apart from socio-demographic and psychological factors. In order to gather the research material, the CAWI on-line survey method was applied and carried out within the framework of the Ariadna Research Panel on the sample of 1079 Poles aged 15 and over. The FCV-19S scale, which is used to measure the fear of COVID-19 was applied in the measurement. It is a verified diagnostic instrument used to measure mental health in a lot of countries. The results of a hierarchical regression analysis have shown that the factors which increase the level of fear of COVID-19 are demographic, social and psychological features as well as attitudes towards the pandemic. The results of research indicate the significance of social context in the analysis and explanation of the effects of disasters and cataclysms.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202208.0151.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Cardiology Keywords: BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine; COVID-19 vaccine; cardiovascular effects; myocarditis; adolescents; Thailand
Online: 8 August 2022 (10:40:23 CEST)
This study focuses on cardiovascular effects, particularly myocarditis and pericarditis events, after BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine injection in Thai adolescents. This prospective cohort study enrolled students from two schools aged 13–18 years who received the second dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine. Data including demographics, symptoms, vital signs, ECG, echocardiography and cardiac enzymes were collected at baseline, Day 3, Day 7, and Day 14 (optional) using case record forms.We enrolled 314 participants; of these, 13 participants were lost to follow up, leaving 301 participants for analysis. The most common cardiovascular effects were tachycardia (7.64%), shortness of breath (6.64%), palpitation (4.32%), chest pain (4.32%), and hypertension (3.99%). Seven participants (2.33%) exhibited at least one elevated cardiac biomarker or positive lab assessments. Cardiovascular effects were found in 29.24% of patients, ranging from tachycardia, palpitation, and myopericarditis. Myopericarditis was confirmed in one patient after vaccination. Two patients had suspected pericarditis and four patients had suspected subclinical myocarditis. Conclusion: Cardiovascular effects in adolescents after BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccination included tachycardia, palpitation, and myocarditis. The clinical presentation of myopericarditis after vaccination was usually mild, with all cases fully recovering within 14 days. Hence, adolescents receiving mRNA vaccines should be monitored for side effects. Clinical Trial Registration: NCT05288231
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202206.0410.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Gastroenterology Keywords: COVID-19 variants; COVID-19 vaccine; IBD; ulcerative colitis; Crohn’s disease; anti-TNF
Online: 29 June 2022 (15:02:36 CEST)
Management of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) often relies on biological and immunomodulatory agents for remission through immunosuppression, raising concerns regarding the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine's effectiveness. The emergent variants have hindered the vaccine neutralization capacity, and whether the third vaccine dose has the capacity to neutralize SARS-CoV-2 variants in this population remains unknown. This study aims to evaluate the humoral response of SARS-CoV-2 variants in patients with IBD 60 days after the third vaccine dose [BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) or mRNA-1273 (Moderna)].56 su bjects with IBD and 12 healthy subjects were recruited. 90% of patients with IBD (49/56) were receiving biologics and/or immunomodulatory therapy. 24 subjects with IBD did not develop effective neutralizing capability against the Omicron variant. 70% (17/24) of those subjects were receiving anti-Tumor Necrosis Factor therapy [10= adalimumab, 7= infliximab], two of them had a history of COVID-19 infection, and one subject did not develop immune neutralization against three other variants: Gamma, Epsilon, and Kappa. All subjects in the control group developed detectable antibodies and effective neutralization against all seven SARS-CoV-2 variants. Our study shows that patients with IBD might not be protected against SARS-CoV-2 variants, and larger studies are needed to evaluate optimal immunity.
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Other Keywords: COVID-19; with- COVID-19 age; infectious disease; local healthcare projects; healthcare systems
Online: 16 September 2021 (14:59:34 CEST)
Objectives: This study aimed to analyze the awareness of local residents regarding healthcare projects and to suggest some ideas for the revision of local ones. Methods: To delve into the opinions of local residents, the author of this study created a questionnaire composed of eight questions on the general characteristics of the respondents, eight questions on satisfaction with health centers, 16 questions on the awareness of healthcare projects, and 22 questions on local healthcare. The survey was conducted for 409 residents who visited public centers in Gimcheon from 15 March to 14 April 2021. Results: Data analysis revealed the following: The proportion of local residents who use health centers was 39.1%, and those users visit health centers, on average, 3.92 times a year. Among healthcare projects, the project known by the highest proportion of people was vaccinations (84.5%), which was also the project that was most used (38.1%). Among healthcare projects needed in the with-COVID-19 age, respondents awarded the highest score to vaccinations (4.15 points on a five-point Likert scale) and the second highest score to infectious disease management (4.12). Conclusions: For healthcare projects, central and local governments should focus on activating vaccinations, solving the problem of medical accessibility through untact remote treatment and establishing national infectious disease-specializing hospitals and local infectious disease management based on such national hospitals.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0597.v1
Subject: Engineering, Biomedical & Chemical Engineering Keywords: COVID-19 detection; biosensor application; COVID-19 transmission styles; sensors interaction; artificial intelligence
Online: 27 August 2020 (08:01:55 CEST)
The global spread of coronavirus disease (COVID -19) worldwide has had a significant effect on social and economic growth. The contamination keeps on advancing quickly and eccentrically, representing a significant test to its recognition and conclusion. Coronaviruses are commonly recognized by seclusion from tests, regardless of whether natural or clinical, utilizing some atomic science procedures, which can take a few days. In this work an analytical review of virus transmission, methods of diagnosing COVID -19 using artificial intelligence techniques to classify images and types of biosensors. At long last, the deformities and points of interest of each kind of sensor are recognized and examined. This exploration gives an explanatory audit of the utilization of crown infection COVID-19 in 2019. Related examinations were led utilizing five dependable databases, for example, Science Direct, IEEE Xplore, Scopus, Web of Science, and PubMed. An acceptable investigation is remembered for this audit, which can be depended upon as a logical database to put resources into another technique for recognizing COIVD-19.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202005.0411.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Other Keywords: COVID-19; Clinical Trials; disruption; non-COVID-19 clinical trials; drugs; therapeutic area
Online: 25 May 2020 (11:17:56 CEST)
COVID-19 is causing major turmoil around the globe, and the clinical trial industry is likely to face unprecedented challenges to health and business sectors. In an effort to find a suitable treatment and prevention options for COVID-19, several COVID-19 clinical trials are being planned and initiated, while a large number of clinical trials for non- COVID-19 indications are suffering delays. With over more than 1000 trials being disrupted and more trials being added to this category daily, there is a direct impact on trial site activation and patient enrolment. This analysis deals with the specific impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the clinical trial and pharmaceutical industry. The objective of this study is to provide an updated information of the disrupted clinical trials and its impact on various therapeutic areas and different drugs. Among the severely affected clinical trials, oncology and CNS trials are the hardest hit therapy areas.This article will certainly emphasize the need for advanced and innovative approaches to maintain the health of the clinical trial ecosystem by continuing the existing trials and the start of the new studies. We have to take and follow necessary actions to guarantee that the initiatives will not be locked during the COVID-19 pandemic, both for the treatment of patients and for the researchers to conduct decision-relevant clinical trials.
Subject: Keywords: COVID-19 infection; immunity; risk of COVID-19 infection; pandemics; outbreaks; voluntary infection
Online: 13 May 2020 (05:53:07 CEST)
Draconian defensive measures have been implemented to combat the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. These important measures constitute a vital current priority but do little to increase communal immunity and avoid future outbreaks. A longer-term exit strategy for a sustainable return to normalcy has yet to be identified. The development of vaccines or effective therapeutics could largely solve the problem, but their timely development cannot be guaranteed. In this setting, and under the expected societal isolation fatigue from extended social distancing, we here propose the idea that at some point after the outbreak’s peak, hospitals, in addition to providing care for infected people who need it, could also be involved in the development of a controlled exit strategy designed to avoid future outbreaks. We postulate that controlled voluntary deliberate infection in a hospital setting and under continuous and close medical observation may offer a safer alternative compared to random en-masse exposure. We discuss potential risks and benefits, highlighting the need for careful consideration of the associated critical ethical issues.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202004.0341.v1
Subject: Life Sciences, Virology Keywords: COVID-19; Outbreak; nCoV-19; Quinine; Chloroquine; Hydroxychloroquine
Online: 19 April 2020 (08:36:55 CEST)
Quinine and its less toxic derivatives have served humanity for decades as potent antimalarial drugs. Emergence of drug resistance has narrowed the usage of these drugs in malaria prevention and treatment. Fortunately, these drugs have roles in the treatment of other diseases as well including rheumatic disorders and viral infections. Quinine derivatives have proven antiviral effects, especially against human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), Zika virus (ZiKV), herpes simplex virus (HSV), Ebola virus and dengue virus (DENV). The prophylactic and therapeutic role of Chloroquine/hydroxychroquine has become a topic of interest after the recent outbreak of novel Corona virus-19 (nCoV-19). This virus is also named severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) and WHO has officially named this disease as Corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This lethal virus has affected almost 186 countries of the world till to date just in a period of four months of its outbreak. No approved antiviral drug is existed for the treatment of COVID-19. Therefore, this review is focused on potential prophylactic and therapeutic role of chloroquine/hydroxychlroquine for COVID-19.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202109.0440.v1
Subject: Behavioral Sciences, Applied Psychology Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic; coronavirus; subjective sleep quality; risk perception; fear of infection; rumination; perception of collective coordinated defense; collective efficacy beliefs
Online: 24 September 2021 (14:34:47 CEST)
Background: Only few studies have studied the link between risk perception and sleep in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study investigates the effect of two distinct risk appraisals—risk perception and perception of collective coordinated defense (PCCD) on Chinese adults’ sleep quality during the COVID-19 pandemic, and tested COVID-19-related fear and rumination as potential mediators of the relationships. Methods: Data were collected using a self-report online questionnaire from a sample of 224 Chinese adults during the fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong. Results: COVID-19 risk perception and PCCD were related to poor sleep quality. Mediation analysis showed that both fear and rumination mediated the relationship between risk perception and sleep quality, whereas only fear mediated the relationship between PCCD and sleep quality. The model showed an excellent fit to the data and accounted for 44% of the variance in sleep quality in Chinese adults. Conclusions: This study demonstrates the distinct perceptual processes—risk appraisals in particular—contributed to poor sleep quality in Chinese adults during the COVID-19 public emergencies. These findings would be helpful for policy makers to address the sleep problems induced by psychological consequences of the pandemic.
REVIEW | doi:10.20944/preprints202003.0235.v2
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, Nutrition Keywords: acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS); ascorbic acid; cathelicidin; coronavirus; COVID-19; cytokine storm; influenza; observational; pneumonia, prevention; respiratory tract infection; solar radiation; treatment; UVB; vitamin C; vitamin D
Online: 30 March 2020 (05:48:43 CEST)
The world is in the grips of the COVID-19 pandemic. Public health measures that can reduce the risk of infection and death in addition to quarantines are desperately needed. This article reviews the roles of vitamin D in reducing risk of respiratory tract infections, knowledge about the epidemiology of influenza and COVID-19, and how vitamin D supplementation might be a useful measure to reduce risk. Through several mechanisms, vitamin D can reduce risk of infections. Those mechanisms include inducing cathelicidins and defensins that can lower viral replication rates and reducing concentrations of pro-inflammatory cytokines that produce the inflammation that injures the lining of the lungs, leading to pneumonia, as well as increase concentrations of anti-inflammatory cytokines. Several observational studies and clinical trials reported that vitamin D supplementation reduced risk of influenza, whereas others did not. Evidence supporting the role of vitamin D in reducing risk of COVID-19 includes that the outbreak occurred in winter, a time when 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentrations are lowest; that the number of cases in the Southern Hemisphere near the end of summer are low; that vitamin D deficiency has been found to contribute to acute respiratory distress syndrome, and that case-fatality rates increase with age and with chronic disease comorbidity, both of which are associated with lower 25(OH)D concentration. To reduce risk of infection, it is recommended that people at risk of influenza and/or COVID-19 consider taking 10,000 IU/d of vitamin D3 for a few weeks to rapidly raise 25(OH)D concentrations, followed by 5000 IU/d. The goal should be to raise 25(OH)D concentrations above 40–60 ng/ml (100–150 nmol/l). For treatment of people who become infected with COVID-19, higher vitamin D3 doses might be useful. Randomized controlled trials and large population studies should be conducted to evaluate these recommendations.
COMMUNICATION | doi:10.20944/preprints202204.0196.v1
Online: 21 April 2022 (08:24:19 CEST)
The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 is the latest pandemic lineage causing COVID-19. Despite having a vaccination rate ≥ 85% Ecuador recorded a high incidence of Omicron from December 2021 to March 2022. Since Omicron emerged it is evolving into multiple sublineages with distinct prevalence in different regions. In this work, we use all Omicron sequences from Ecuador available at GISAID until March 2022 and the software Nextclade and Pangolin to identify which lineages circulate in this country. We detected 12 different sublineages (BA.1, BA.1.1, BA.1.1.1, BA.1.1.14, BA.1.1.2, BA.1.14, BA.1.15, BA.1.16, BA.1.17, BA.1.6, BA.2, BA.2.3), which has been reported in Africa, America, Europe, and Asia suggesting multiple introduction events. Sublineages BA.1.1 and BA.1 were the most prevalent. Genomic surveillance must continue to evaluate the dynamic of current sublineages, early introduction of new ones and vaccine efficacy against evolving SARS-CoV-2.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202203.0076.v1
Online: 4 March 2022 (09:10:15 CET)
The COVID-19 pandemic has now become very severe as never before due to the overwhelming spread of Omicron. We found that Omicron outbreak can be effectively prevented by inactivated vaccines, which averted an outbreak of more than 1.6 million people in Hangzhou, China. The 36 mutations in the target spike protein of Omicron neutralizing antibody enable it to evade the immune protection afforded by vaccines. This is because that mRNA and adenovirus-vector vaccines are designed to recognize the spike (S) glycoprotein of the SARS-CoV-2 wild-type (WT) strain. However, Inactivated vaccines contain the whole viral antigens and remain stable in their recognition of newly emerging variants of SARS-CoV-2. Our study confirmed the advantage of inactivated vaccines in the face of highly mutated Omicron variant and provided a basis for the development of effective vaccines to prevent future long-term transmission, mutation and recurrence of SARS-CoV-2.
CONCEPT PAPER | doi:10.20944/preprints202109.0162.v3
Subject: Life Sciences, Virology Keywords: epidemiological model; dwarf peak phenomenon; herd immunity; Covid-19
Online: 27 September 2022 (04:51:54 CEST)
Compartmental models that dynamically divide the host population in categories such as susceptible, infected and immune constitute the mainstream of epidemiological modelling. Effectively such models treat infection and immunity as binary variables. We constructed an individual based stochastic model that considers immunity as a continuous variable and incorporates factors that bring about small changes in immunity. The small immunity effects (SIE) comprise cross immunity by other infections, small increments in immunity by sub clinical exposures and slow decay in the absence of repeated exposure. The model makes qualitatively different epidemiological predictions including repeated waves without the need for new variants, dwarf peaks (peak and decline of a wave much before reaching herd immunity threshold), symmetry in the upward and downward slopes of a wave, endemic state, new surges after variable and unpredictable gaps, new surge after vaccinating majority of population. In effect the SIE model raises alternative possible causes of the universally observed dwarf and symmetric peaks and repeated surges, observed particularly well during the Covid-19 pandemic. We also suggest testable predictions to differentiate between the alternative causes for repeated waves. The model further shows complex interactions of different interventions that can be synergistic as well as antagonistic. The model suggests that interventions that are beneficial in the short run can also be hazardous in the long run.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202106.0310.v1
Online: 11 June 2021 (09:19:51 CEST)
Because of the covid-19 pandemic, world development has de-escalated, and some have come to a halt because there are many new problems that this era never faced before. Especially in Indonesia's education, every student in this millennial era who is already used to face-to-face lectures and teachers and professors are going through massive changes where every task will be done virtually. These actions are being done to prevent the spread of Covid-19. With online meetings, there will be many changes in the curriculum to find an effective way of studying, and the former curriculum will not fit because it was made for the offline lecture. Also adapting to it will take time. This article will bring up Indonesia’s education progress in this era while Covid-19 pandemic is happening and give an insight on how to anticipate this problem. Questions that arise from this topic are the effect of government effort on holding the pandemic, is it safe if school will be opened soon, and how education after this pandemic is. This research uses literature review methods where it’s done by search, gather, compile and interpret data that is being used. The data are from the latest research, namely from 2019 to 2021 published through Google Scholar, totaling 11 articles, and few online news to keep relevancy of the topic. The results of this study indicate that Covid-19 produces a change that is worse than the good. Even so, the government has allowed face-to-face and online learning according to the consent of students and parents. Thus, the community, especially students, teachers, and others, are expected to uphold education even though it is required to adapt according to existing protocols. From the research, literature review methods proved to be effective to study this topic while Covid-19 is happening to keep safety measures, but it does not give many details and specific information well. This method is recommended to researchers who don’t want to risk their life by being exposed to the pandemic.
BRIEF REPORT | doi:10.20944/preprints202105.0617.v1
Online: 25 May 2021 (15:06:40 CEST)
The harrowing second wave of COVID-19 in India has led to much discussion over the quality and timeliness of reporting of deaths attributed to the pandemic. In this brief report, we aim to present the existing evidence, as well as the broader complexities surrounding the mortality burden of COVID-19 in India. This article sheds light on the following epidemiological issues: (1) general and India-specific challenges to COVID-19 death reporting, (2) latest COVID-19 mortality estimates in India as of May 16, 2021, (3) the apparent scale of uncaptured COVID-19 deaths, and (4) the role of disaggregated historic mortality trends in quantification of excess deaths attributed to COVID-19. We conclude with a set of high-level policy recommendations for improving the vital surveillance system and tracking of causes of death in India. We encourage direct efforts to integrate health data and indirect strategies for cross-validation of registered deaths. Such system-wide advances would drastically aid epidemiological research efforts and strengthen India’s position to overcome future public health crises.
COMMUNICATION | doi:10.20944/preprints202102.0306.v1
Online: 12 February 2021 (14:39:16 CET)
The COVID-19 pandemic which have affected every part of the world have been deemed a public health concern and classified as a pandemic. The government imposing travel bans and quarantine measures have been found to be effective in preventing and reducing the spread of COVID-19. A reduction in physical activity and increase in the consumption of unhealthy foods have been observed to be some of the major implications of quarantine. Adequate physical activity and increased access to healthy foods would help in improving the psychological wellbeing of individuals thereby preventing the development of cardiovascular diseases.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202101.0153.v2
Online: 13 January 2021 (11:06:00 CET)
This study clearly shows that the corona pandemic has a significant impact on consumers’ eating habits. More food is eaten overall, and more convenience products such as ready meals and canned food with a longer shelf life are purchased. The consumption of alcohol and confectionery has also increased. In return, the consumption of fresh fruit and vegetables has declined. It becomes clear that families who are financially affected by the pandemic represent a vulnerable group. With the increasing duration of the pandemic, repeated lockdowns, corona-related closings of schools and kindergartens, health consequences are to be expected in the medium to long term, especially for this population group.
ARTICLE | doi:10.20944/preprints202009.0242.v1
Subject: Medicine & Pharmacology, General Medical Research Keywords: COPD; COVID-19; prevalence; prognosis
Online: 11 September 2020 (05:47:59 CEST)
Patients with COPD have a higher prevalence of coronary ischemia and other factors that put them at risk for COVID-19-related complications. We aimed to explore the impact of COVID-19 in a large population-based sample of patients with COPD in Castilla-La Mancha, Spain. We analyzed clinical data in electronic health records from January 1st to May 10th, 2020 by using Natural Language Processing through the SAVANA Manager® clinical platform. Out of 31,633 COPD patients, 793 had a diagnosis of COVID-19. The proportion of patients with COVID-19 in the COPD population (2,51%; CI95% 2,33 – 2,68) was significantly higher than in the general population aged > 40 years (1,16%; 95%CI 1,14 – 1,18); P < .001. Compared with COPD-free individuals, COPD patients with COVID-19 showed significantly poorer disease prognosis, as evaluated by hospitalizations (31,1 % vs 39,8%: OR 1,57; 95%CI 1,14 – 1,18) and mortality (3,4% vs 9,3%: OR 2,93; 95%CI 2,27 – 3,79). Patients with COPD and COVID-19 were significantly older (75 vs. 66 years), predominantly male (83% vs 17%), smoked more frequently, and had more comorbidities than their non-COPD counterparts. Pneumonia was the most common diagnosis among COPD patients hospitalized due to COVID-19 (59%); 19% of patients showed pulmonary infiltrates suggestive of pneumonia and heart failure. Mortality in COPD patients with COVID-19 was associated with older age and prevalence of heart failure (P<0.05). COPD patients with COVID-19 showed higher rates of hospitalization and mortality, mainly associated with pneumonia. This clinical profile is different from exacerbations caused by other respiratory viruses in the winter season.