Chronological frameworks based on artefact typologies are essential for interpreting the archaeological record, but they inadvertently treat transitions between phases as abrupt events and disregard the temporality of transformation processes within and between individual phases. This study presents an absolute chronological investigation of a dynamic material culture from Early Iron Age urnfields in Denmark. The chronological framework of Early Iron Age in Southern Scandinavia is largely unconstrained by absolute dating, primarily due to it coinciding with the so-called ‘Hallstatt calibration plateau’ (c.750 to 400 cal BC), and it is difficult to correlate it with Central European chronologies due to a lack of imported artefacts. This study applies recent methodological advances in radiocarbon dating and Bayesian chronological modelling, specifically a statistical model for wood-age offsets in cremated bone and presents the first large-scale radiocarbon investigation of regional material culture from Early Iron Age in Southern Jutland, Denmark. Dated material is primarily cremated bone from 111 cremation burials from three urnfields. The study presents absolute date ranges for 16 types of pottery and 15 types of metalwork, which include most of the recognised metalwork types from the period. This provides new insights into gradual change in material culture, when certain artefact types were in production and primary use, how quickly types were taken up and later abandoned, and distinguishing periods of faster and slower change. The study also provides the first absolute chronology for the period, enabling correlation with chronologies from other regions. Urnfields were introduced at the Bronze-Iron Age transformation, which is often assumed to have occurred c.530-500 BC. We demonstrate that this transformation took place in the 7^th century BC, however, which revives the discussion of whether the final Bronze Age period VI should be interpreted as a transitional phase to the Iron Age.

The probability distribution of the interevent time between two successive earthquakes has been subject of numerous studies due to its key role in seismic hazard assessment. In recent decades, many distributions have been considered and there has been a long debate about the possible universality of the shape of this distribution when the interevent times are suitably rescaled. In this work we aim to find out if there is a link between the different phases of a seismic cycle and the variations in the distribution that best fits the interevent times. To do this, we consider the seismic activity related to the Mw 6.1 L’Aquila earthquake that occurred on April 6, 2009 in central Italy by analyzing the sequence of events recorded from April 2005 to July 2009, and then the seismic activity linked to the sequence of the Amatrice-Norcia earthquakes of Mw 6 and 6.5 respectively and recorded in the period from January 2009 to June 2018. We take into account some of the most studied distributions in the literature: q-exponential, q-generalized gamma, gamma and exponential distributions and, according to the Bayesian paradigm, we compare the value of their posterior marginal likelihood in shifting time windows with a fixed number of data. The results suggest that the distribution providing the best performance changes over time and its variations may be associated with different phases of the seismic crisis.

During the last years, the increasing evidence of dietary antioxidant compounds and reducing chronic diseases and the relationship between diet and health have promoted an important innovation on the baked product sector, aiming at healthier formulations. This study aims to develop a tool based on mathematical models to predict baked goods total antioxidant capacity (TAC). The high variability of antioxidant properties of flours based on the aspects related to type of grains, varieties, proximal composition and processing, among others, makes very difficult to innovate on food product development without specific analysis. Using Total phenol content (TP), Oxygen radical absorbance capacity (ORAC) and Ferric reducing antioxidant power assay (FRAP) as proxies of antioxidant capacity. Three Bayesian-type models are proposed based on a double exponential parameterised curve that reflects the initial decrease and subsequent increase as a consequence of the observed processes of degradation and generation, respectively, of the antioxidant compounds. Once the values of the main parameters of each curve have been determined, support vector machines (SVR) with exponential kernel were used to predict, based on the temperature and duration of baking as well as the values of proteins and fibers of each native grain, the values of TAC during the baking time.

This paper focuses on a joint model to analyse longitudinal proportion and survival data. After transforming the longitudinal proportional data by a logit function, we adopt a partially linear mixed-effect model for it, in which nonlinear function of time is fitted via using B-splines technique and a centered Dirichlet Process Mixture Model (CDPMM) is specified for a general distribution of random effects. The survival data is assumed to a Cox proportional hazard model, the sharing random effects joint model is developed for the two types of data. Combining the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, we propose a Bayesian Lasso (BLasso) method to simultaneously estimate unknown parameters and select important covariates. Simulation studies are conducted to investigate the finite sample performance of the proposed methods. An example from the MA.5 research experiment is used to illustrate the proposed methodologies.

Background The purpose of this study was to clarify the relationship structure of quality of life (QOL) in survivors of breast cancer, including difficulty in daily life and negative experience as health-related indicators. Methods Participants were survivors of breast cancer for more than 2 years after primary breast cancer surgery and belonged to self-help groups. The assessment used FACT-B (QOL), HADS (anxiety and depression), SOC (sense of coherence), WHODAS 2.0 (difficulties in daily life), and CAOD (negative experiences). Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM) was performed to analyze the hypothesized model. If the causal model was significant, multiplication of the path coefficient from anxiety and depression to QOL, and from SOC to anxiety and depression, was considered a direct effect on QOL, and from SOC to difficulty in daily life, from difficulty in daily life to negative experiences, and from negative experiences to anxiety and depression were considered indirect effects on QOL. Results Goodness of fit of the model in the BSEM was satisfactory. The direct effect was 0.274, and indirect effect was 0.163. Conclusions These direct and indirect approaches to difficulties in daily life are very significant because they can provide a basis for development of support strategies to increase QOL.

The aim of the paper is to identify the most likely factors that determine the demand for Renewa-ble Energy Consumption (R.E.C.) in European countries. Although in Europe a high environmen-tal awareness is omnipresent, countries differ in scope and share of R.E.C. due to historical ener-getic policies and dependencies, investments into renewable and traditional energetic sectors, R&D development, structural changes required by energetic policy change, and many other fac-tors. The study refers to a set of macroeconomic, institutional, and social factors affecting energetic renewable policy and R.E.C. in selected European countries in two points of time: i.e., before and after the Paris Agreement. The Bayesian Average Classical Estimates (BACE) is applied to indicate the most likely factors affecting R.E.C. in 2015 and 2018. The comparison of the results reveals that the G.D.P. level, nuclear and hydro energy consumption were the determinants significant in both analyzed years. Furthermore, it became clear that in 2015 the R.E.C. depended strongly on the energy consumption structure, while in 2018, the foreign direct investment and trade openness played their role in increasing renewable energy consumption. The direction of changes is positive and complies with sustainable development goals (S.D.G.s).

In this paper we perform numerous numerical studies for the problem of low-rank matrix completion. We compare the Bayesian approaches and a recently introduced de-biased estimator which provides a useful way to build confidence intervals of interest. From a theoretical viewpoint, the de-biased estimator comes with a sharp minimax-optimal rate of estimation error whereas the Bayesian approach reaches this rate with an additional logarithmic factor. Our simulation studies show originally interesting results that the de-biased estimator is just as good as the Bayesian estimators. Moreover, Bayesian approaches are much more stable and can outperform the de-biased estimator in the case of small samples. However, we also find that the length of the confidence intervals revealed by the de-biased estimator for an entry is absolutely shorter than the length of the considered credible interval. These suggest further theoretical studies on the estimation error and the concentration for Bayesian methods as they are being quite limited up to present.

Traditional flood hazard analyses often rely on univariate probability distributions; however, in many coastal catchments, flooding is the result of complex hydrodynamic interactions between multiple drivers. For example, synoptic meteorological conditions can produce considerable rainfall-runoff, while also generating wind-driven elevated sea levels. When these drivers interact in space and time, they can exacerbate flood impacts; this phenomenon is known as compound flooding. In this paper, we build a Bayesian Network based on Gaussian copulas to generate the equivalent of 500 years of daily stochastic boundary conditions for a coastal watershed in Southeast Texas. In doing so, we overcome many of the limitations of conventional univariate approaches and are able to probabilistically represent compound floods caused by riverine and coastal interactions. We calculate the resulting water levels using a 1D steady-state hydraulic model and find that flood stages in the catchment are strongly affected by backwater effects from tributary inflows and downstream water levels. By comparing with a bathtub modeling approach, we show that simplifying the multivariate dependence between flood drivers can lead to an underestimation of flood impacts, highlighting that accounting for multivariate dependence is critical for the accurate representation of flood risk in coastal catchments prone to compound events.

IMPORTANCE: On December 10, 2021, the FDA published a Determination Letter, along with a Statistical Review and Evaluation Report, and concluded that under the non-informative prior, the local Bayesian optimal interval design (BOIN) design, in its revised form, can be designated fit-for-purpose for identifying the maximum tolerated dose of a new drug, assuming that dose-toxicity relationship is monotonically increasing. Although setting the BOIN design parameter p.tox = 1.4 * target.DLT.rate is recommended in almost all BOIN methodology articles and is the default value in the R package BOIN, it's unclear if the choice of p.tox should only depend on the target DLT rate and if certain range of p.tox could produce the same BOIN boundary table. DESIGN: In this simulation study, following parameters were varied one at a time, using R package BOIN, to explore their effects on the equivalence intervals of p.saf and p.tox: 1) target DLT rate, 2) n.earlystop, 3) cutoff.eli, 4) cohortsize, and 5) ncohort. And a simple 3+3 design was used as an example to explore equivalent sets of BOIN design parameters that can generate the same boundary table. RESULTS: When the early stopping parameter n.earlystop is relatively small or the cohortsize value is not optimized via simulation, it might be better to use p.tox < 1.4 * target.DLT.rate, or try out different cohort sizes, or increase n.earlystop, whichever is both feasible and provides better operating characteristics. This is because if the cohortsize was not optimized via simulation, even when n.earlystop = 12 and cohortsize > 3, the BOIN escalation/de-escalation rules generated using p.tox = 1.4 * target.DLT.rate could be exactly the same as those calculated using p.tox > 3 * target.DLT.rate, which might not be acceptable for some pediatric trials targeting 10% DLT rate. The traditional 3+3 design stops the dose finding process when 3 patients have been treated at the current dose level, 0 DLT has been observed, and the next higher dose has already been eliminated. If additional 3 patients were required to be treated at the current dose in the situation described above, the decision rules of this commonly used 3+3 design could be generated using BOIN design with target DLT rates ranging from 18% to 29%, p.saf ranging from 8% to 26%, and different p.tox values ranging from 39% to 99%. These BOIN parameters also need to satisfy a set of conditions. Meaning: This study demonstrates the importance of interpreting BOIN design parameter p.tox as an interval of toxicity rates that are considered too toxic, rather than one prespecified value that corresponds to the lowest toxicity probability that is deemed overly toxic. When designing a dose-finding trial using BOIN, it is important to perform simulation studies to identify equivalent sets of BOIN design parameters that can generate the same boundary table so that we can better compare the safety properties of different boundary tables.

Lung cancer is a prevalent malignancy that impacts individuals of all genders and is often diagnosed late due to delayed symptoms. To catch it early, researchers are developing algorithms to study lung cancer images. One such method uses computer aided detection to classify as benign or malignant from the histopathological images. Standard histopathological images were used from a Lung and Colon Cancer Histopathological Image Dataset (LC25000) which contains two classes of benign and malignant of 5000 each. Images were preprocessed and features extracted using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Grey Wolf Optimization (GWO). Feature selection methods used are KL Divergence and Invasive Weed Optimization (IWO). Seven different classifiers like SVM, KNN, Random Forest, Decision Tree, Softmax Discriminant, Multilayer Perceptron, and BLDC were used to analyze and classify the images as benign or malignant. Results were compared using standard metrics, and kappa analysis assessed classifier agreement. The Decision Tree Classifier with GWO feature extraction achieved good accuracy of 85.01% without Feature selection and Hyperparameter Tuning approaches. Furthermore, we present a methodology to enhance the accuracy of the classifiers by employing hyperparameter tuning algorithms based on Adam and RAdam. By combining features from GWO and IWO, and using the RAdam algorithm, the Decision Tree classifier achieves the commendable accuracy of 91.57%

Sudden water pollution accident is a tough environmental challenge to solve due to its uncertainty, unpredictability and destructiveness. Therein, the dangerous goods transportation accidents on the cross-tributary bridges are increasing worldwide with the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, posing threats to the water ecological environment and human health. To prevent and control the risk, this study evaluated the risk of sudden water pollution accidents associated with dangerous goods transportation on the cross-tributary bridges by using the expert judgment fuzzy language method and Bayesian network model. Baiyangdian lake as the largest freshwater shallow lake in North China was chosen as a study case. Different accident scenarios were simulated to put forward risk prevention and control measures. The results showed that the primary risk factors were divided into five categories: personnel factors, vehicle factors, tank factors, weather factors, and road environment factors. The probability of dangerous goods transportation accidents was a possible event (P=0.115), with a high risk level. Furthermore, the Baiyangdian lake would suffer from serious environmental pollution and water quality degradation without prevention and control measures by simulating the oil leakage accident. Therefore, emergency prevention and control measures are expected to be formulated and implemented before and after the occurrence of the sudden water pollution accidents. This study provides useful insights into risk prevention and control strategies for sudden water pollution accidents, and the framework can be made applicable to other rivers facing similar risk challenges worldwide.

There is voluminous literature on Food Security in Africa. This study explicitly considers the spatio-temporal factors in addition to the usual FAO-based metrics in modeling and understanding the dynamics of food security and nutrition across the African continent. To better understand the complex trajectory and burden of food insecurity and nutrition in Africa, it is crucial to consider space-time factors when modeling and interpreting food security. The spatio-temporal anova model was found to be superior(employing statistical criteria) to the other there models from the spatio-temporal interaction domain models. The results of the study suggest that dietary supply adequacy, food stability, and consumption status are positively associated with severe food security, while average food supply and environmental factors have negative effects on Food Security and Nutrition. The findings also indicate that severe food insecurity and malnutrition are spatially and temporally correlated across the African continent. Spatio-temporal modeling and spatial mapping are essential components of a comprehensive practice to reduce the burden of severe food insecurity. likewise, any planning and intervention to improve the average food supply and environment to promote sustainable development should be regional instead of one size fit all.

To predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) in advance, a prediction method based on the voltage recovery model and Bayesian optimization of a multi-kernel relevance vector machine (MK-RVM) is proposed in this paper. First, the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method was used to preprocess the data, and then the MK-RVM was used to train the model. Then, the Bayesian optimization algorithm was used to optimize the weight coefficient of the kernel function to complete the parameter update of the prediction model, and the voltage recovery model was added to the prediction model to realize the rapid and accurate prediction of the RUL of PEMFC. Finally, the method proposed in this paper was applied to the open data set of PEMFC provided by FCLAB, and the prediction accuracy of the RUL of PEMFC was obtained by 95.35%, which showed that the method had good gen-eralization ability and verified the accuracy of the prediction for the RUL of PEMFC.

Exact sequential state estimation of orbiting objects in space can be found by predicting the state using Fokker Planck Kolmogorov Equation (FPKE) and measurement correction using Bayes’ conditional/posterior Probability Density Function (PDF). Posterior PDF can be expressed as Gaussian density expanded in terms of Hermite polynomials named as Gram Charlier Series (GCS). This research is an extension of an earlier work on second order linearized solution to nonlinear Bayesian filtering using Taylor series and third order GCS expansion of posterior PDF. In this new extension, Bayes’ posterior PDF is approximated by a mixture of GCS functions for which the parameters are propagated using linear propagation theory. The update of weights of different components of GCS mixture model uses the FPKE error as feedback to adapt for the amplitude of different GCS components while solving a quadratic programming problem earlier used for Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) PDF. Proposed filtering method is applied on tracking of space debris. The simulation results for the filter shows performance is moderately better than single GCS filter, Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) and Gaussian Sum Filter (GSF) under space debris’ highly uncertain initial conditions and sparse measurement availability.

Background: All Payer Claims Databases (APCD) are a rich source of health information, however, race and ethnicity (R&E) data are largely missing. Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding (BISG) is a common R&E imputation method, yet, validation of BISG in APCDs is lacking. We used the BISG to impute missing R&E in the Oregon APCD. Methods: BISG imputed R&E for Asian Pacific Islanders (API), Blacks, Hispanics and Whites were contrasted to the gold standard (vital statistics) and sensitivity and specificity improvements were assessed. Logistic regression examined whether missing R&E was random across patient characteristics. Results: Among 85,857 individuals in the study, 32.1% (n=27,594) had missing R&E. Missing R&E was not randomly distributed. There were higher odds of missingness among males, Whites, those age 65 and older, and commercially insured individuals. Differences in the percent missing were also found by co-morbid conditions and mortality causes. Imputing the missing R&E with BISG method improved the sensitivity to identify White, Black, API, and Hispanics. Conclusions: APCDs can benefit from enhancing missing R&E with BISG imputation to perform more robust population-health level analyses and identify inequities according to R&E without losing power or dropping non-random records with missing R&E data.

Sleep deficiency impacts the quality of life and may have serious health consequences in the long run. Questionnaire-based subjective assessment of sleep deficiency has many limitations. On the other hand, objective assessment of sleep deficiency is challenging. In this study, we propose a polysomnography-based mathematical model for computing baseline sleep deficiency severity score and then investigated the estimation of sleep deficiency severity using features available only from wearable sensor data including heart rate variability and single-channel electroen-cephalography for a dataset of 500 subjects. We used Monte-Carlo Feature Selection (MCFS) and inter-dependency discovery for selecting the best features and removing multi-collinearity. For developing the Regression model we investigated both the frequentist and the Bayesian ap-proaches. An Artificial Neural Network achieved the best performance of RMSE = 5.47 and an R-squared value of 0.67 for sleep deficiency severity estimation. The developed method is com-parable to conventional methods of Functional Outcome of Sleep Questionnaire and Epworth Sleepiness Scale for assessing the impact of sleep apnea on sleep deficiency. Moreover, the results pave the way for reliable and interpretable sleep deficiency severity estimation using a wearable device in Smart Health.

Industrial dynamical systems often exhibit multi-scale response due to material heterogeneities, operation conditions and complex environmental loadings. In such problems, it is the case that the smallest length-scale of the systems dynamics controls the numerical resolution required to effectively resolve the embedded physics. In practice however, high numerical resolutions is only required in a confined region of the system where fast dynamics or localized material variability are exhibited, whereas a coarser discretization can be sufficient in the rest majority of the system. To this end, a unified computational scheme with uniform spatio-temporal resolutions for uncertainty quantification can be very computationally demanding. Partitioning the complex dynamical system into smaller easier-to-solve problems based of the localized dynamics and material variability can reduce the overall computational cost. However, identifying the region of interest for high-resolution and intensive uncertainty quantification can be a problem dependent. The region of interest can be specified based on the localization features of the solution, user interest, and correlation length of the random material properties. For problems where a region of interest is not evident, Bayesian inference can provide a feasible solution. In this work, we employ a Bayesian framework to update our prior knowledge on the localized region of interest using measurements and system response. To address the computational cost of the Bayesian inference, we construct a Gaussian process surrogate for the forward model. Once, the localized region of interest is identified, we use polynomial chaos expansion to propagate the localization uncertainty. We demonstrate our framework through numerical experiments on a three-dimensional elastodynamic problem

A vast majority of the countries is under the economic and health crises due to the current epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The present study analyzes the COVID-19 using time series, which is an essential gizmo for knowing the enlargement of infection and its changing behavior, especially the trending model. We have considered an autoregressive model with a non-linear time trend component that approximately converted into the linear trend using the spline function. The spline function split the COVID-19 series into different piecewise segments between respective knots and fitted the linear time trend. First, we obtain the number of knots with its locations in the COVID-19 series and then the estimation of the best-fitted model parameters are determined under Bayesian setup. The results advocate that the proposed model/methodology is a useful procedure to convert the non-linear time trend into a linear pattern of newly coronavirus case for various countries in the pandemic situation of COVID-19.

Bayesian analysis for masked data under competing risk frameworks is studied for the purpose of assessing the impact of covariates on the hazard functions when the failure time is exactly observed for some subjects but only known to lie in an interval of time for the remaining subjects. Such data, known as partly interval-censored data, usually result from periodic inspection. Dirichlet and Gamma processes are assumed as priors for masking probabilities and baseline hazards. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique is employed for the implementation of the Bayesian approach. The effectiveness of the proposed model is tested through numerical studies, including simulated and real data sets.

This article shortly introduces Gaussian processes as a new approach for modelling time series in the field of blazar physics. In the second part of the paper, recent results from an application of GP modelling to the multi-wavelength light curves of the blazar PKS 1502+106 are discussed.

In recent years, the advances in sperm morphology and genetic analyses in Perumytilus purpuratus allowed to suggest two evolutionary scenarios for this mussel: 1) the scenario of cryptic species and 2) the scenario of incipient or in progress speciation. To a better understanding of the evolutionary history of P. purpuratus, we performed an extensive sampling effort along a latitudinal gradient of ca. 7,180 km of coastline, from Southern Pacific to Atlantic Oceans and, we have also gone deeper in sperm morphology in P. purpuratus, exploring its association with phylogeny and population genetics to contrast if variability in sperm traits between northern and southern regions are signals of cryptic or incipient species. Overall, our results showed three sperm morphotypes and genetic structure in males of P. purpuratus strongly correlated. Additionally, we found evidence of a genetic admixture between lineages suggesting an introgressive hybridization zone at 38°S. These findings suggest the hypothesis that P. purpuratus is under incomplete reproductive isolation, with the presence of mechanisms of postzygotic isolation between lineages and, therefore, under an incipient or in fraganti speciation process. Finally, we discovered a new long morphotype for this species restricted to southern localities. Overall, our results support the hypothesis of historical events and postglacial recolonization as causal phenomena for the observed divergences.

The oxidative coupling of methane (OCM) to produce ethane and ethylene (C2 compounds) as platform chemicals involves complex chemistry with reactions both in the gas phase and on the catalyst surface, resulting in a distribution of products at the expense of C2 selectivity. This work uses experimental data from a variety of mixed metal oxides on supports at different reaction conditions (temperature, contact time, and reactant flow rates) to train a random forest regressor that predicts methane conversion and C2 selectivity (key performance indicators (KPIs)), and deploys it to locate optimal conditions that maximize C2 yield for a catalyst. Investigating the regressor interpretability via feature importance reveals that the choice of metals and support are crucial to C2 selectivity predictions, while the predictions of methane conversion are driven by the reaction conditions. The machine learning (ML) regressor is used as a surrogate to develop performance curves for each of the catalysts via a multi-objective optimization routine that seeks to maximize the KPIs in the decision space of reaction conditions, is seen to locate optimal conditions at which the maximum C2 yields for catalysts are predicted to be 15%, higher on average. Analyzing the catalysts in the space of their performance curves with respect to a popular OCM catalyst, Mn-Na2WO4/SiO2, reveals distinct patterns based on intrinsic properties of metals and supports. Further, the decision space with catalyst descriptors and reaction conditions is optimized for high C2 yields using the ML surrogate, in a static multi-objective optimization routine, and an adaptive Bayesian routine, where the latter was found to have a wider field focus in proposing catalyst formulations and conditions. Transition metal oxides on a variety of supports were proposed but not their lanthanide oxide counterparts.

Understanding surface water evaporation in tropical catchments is pivotal for effective water management, but limited research exists on stable isotopic (δ2H and δ18O) assessment of water evaporation losses. Our study bridges that gap, examining stable isotopes in meteoric water and surface waters across tropical regions, both humid and semi-arid. Using the Craig-Gordon model, we calibrated evaporation-to-inflow (E/I) ratios, identifying distinct E/I variations between seasons and regions. Notably, the semi-arid region consistently exhibited higher E/I ratios due to climatic characteristics. By integrating the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and the No-U-Turn Sampler, we were able to quantify uncertainties in isotopic and meteorological parameters, resulting in E/I estimates within 68% and 95% confidence intervals. Our Bayesian model insights are critical for freshwater resource optimization and hydrological modeling in tropical regions.

This review covers some of the central relationships between artificial intelligence, psychology, and economics through the lens of information theory, specifically focusing on formal models of decision-theory. In doing so we look at a particular approach that each field has adopted and how information theory has informed the development of the ideas of each field. A key theme is expected utility theory, its connection to information theory, and the Bayesian approach to decision-making and forms of (bounded) rationality. What emerges from this review is a broadly unified formal perspective derived from three very different starting points that reflect the unique principles of each field. Each of the three approaches reviewed can, in principle at least, be implemented in a computational model in such a way that, with sufficient computational power, they could be compared with human abilities in complex tasks. However, a central critique that can be applied to all three approaches was first put forward by Savage in {\it The Foundations of Statistics} and recently brought to the fore by the economist Binmore: Bayesian approaches to decision-making work in what Savage called `small worlds' but cannot work in `large worlds'. This point, in various different guises, is central to some of the current debates about the power of artificial intelligence and its relationship to human-like learning and decision-making. Recent work on artificial intelligence has gone some way to bridging this gap but significant questions still need to be answered in all three fields in order to make progress on these problems.

One of the most common and important destructive attacks on the victim system is Advanced Persistent Threats (APT)-attack. The APT attacker can achieve his hostile goals by obtaining information and gaining financial benefits regarding the infrastructure of a network. One of the solutions to detect a secret APT attack is using network traffic. Due to the nature of the APT attack in terms of being on the network for a long time and the fact that the network may crash because of high traffic, it is difficult to detect this type of attack. Hence, in this study, machine learning methods such as C5.0 decision tree, Bayesian network and deep neural network are used for timely detection and classification of APT-attacks on the NSL-KDD data set. Moreover, 10-fold cross validation method is used to experiment these models. As a result, the accuracy (ACC) of the C5.0 decision tree, Bayesian network and 6-layer deep learning models is obtained as 95.64%, 88.37% and 98.85%, respectively, and also, in terms of the important criterion of the false positive rate (FPR), the FPR value for the C5.0 decision tree, Bayesian network and 6-layer deep learning models is obtained as 2.56, 10.47 and 1.13, respectively. Other criterions such as sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, false negative rate and F-measure are also investigated for the models, and the experimental results show that the deep learning model with automatic multi-layered extraction of features has the best performance for timely detection of an APT-attack comparing to other classification models.

In actuarial practice, the modeling of total losses tied to a certain policy is a non-trivial task. Traditional parametric models to predict total losses have limitations due to complex distributional features such as extreme skewness, zero inflation, multi-modality, etc., and the lack of explicit solutions for log-normal convolution. In the recent literature, the application of the Dirichlet process mixture for insurance loss has been proposed to eliminate the risk of model misspecification biases; however, the effect of covariates as well as missing covariates in the modeling framework is rarely studied. In this article, we propose novel connections among covariate-dependent Dirichlet process mixture, log-normal convolution, and missing covariate imputation. Assuming an individual loss is log-normally distributed, we develop a log skew-normal Dirichlet process to approximate the log-normal sum. As a generative approach, our framework models the joint of outcome and covariates, which allows to impute missing covariates under the assumption of missingness at random. The performance is assessed by applying our model to several insurance datasets, and the empirical results demonstrate the benefit of our model compared to the existing actuarial models such as the Tweedie-based generalized linear model, generalized additive model, or multivariate adaptive regression spline.

We investigate the power of time series analysis based on a variety of information-theoretic approaches from statistics (AIC, BIC) and machine learning (Minimum Message Length) - and we then compare their efficacy with traditional time series model and with hybrids involving deep learning. More specifically, we develop AIC, BIC and Minimum Message Length (MML) ARMA (autoregressive moving average) time series models - with this Bayesian information-theoretic MML ARMA modelling already being new work. We then study deep learning based algorithms in time series forecasting, using Long Short Term Memory (LSTM), and we then combine this with the ARMA modelling to produce a hybrid ARMA-LSTM prediction. Part of the purpose of the use of LSTM is to seek capture any hidden information in the residuals left from the traditional ARMA model. We show that MML not only outperforms earlier statistical approaches to ARMA modelling, but we further show that the hybrid MML ARMA-LSTM models outperform both ARMA models and LSTM models.

Aiming at the problem that the performance of Adaptive Kalman filter estimation will be affected when the statistical characteristics of the process and measurement noise matrix are inaccurate and time-varying in the linear Gaussian state-space model, an algorithm of Multi-fading factor and update monitoring strategy adaptive Kalman filter based variational Bayesian is proposed. Inverse Wishart distribution is selected as the measurement noise model, the system state vector and measurement noise covariance matrix are estimated with the variational Bayesian method. The process noise covariance matrix is estimated by the maximum a posteriori principle, and the update monitoring strategy with adjustment factors is used to maintain the positive semi-definite of the updated matrix. The above optimal estimation results are introduced as time-varying parameters into the multiple fading factors to improve the estimation accuracy of the one-step state predicted covariance matrix. The application of the proposed algorithm in target tracking is simulated. The results show that compared with the current filters, the proposed filtering algorithm has better accuracy and convergence performance, and realizes the simultaneous estimation of inaccurate time-varying process and measurement noise covariance matrices.

The Autopoiesis and Cognition Theory (ACT), by Maturana and Varela, based on the notions of Biological Closure and Structural Coupling, is a well-known theory on how to understand biological organization [1, 2, 3]. Although, for example, the Free Energy Principle framework evokes some entailments of autopoiesis in a more formal setting [4, 5]; and ACT has been used in many fields, its impact has been restricted because it lacks quantitative analysis. Here we present a theoretical framework grounded in accepted and well-developed ideas from Mathematics and Physics which advance the understanding of the Principles of Biological Organization under the guidance of Biological Closure and Structural Coupling. The disciplines of Differential Geometry/Topology, Mechanics and Complex Dynamical Systems provide a powerful, elegant, and well-established body of knowledge to support our Biological Organization Principles (BOP) framework. In particular, Stochastic Mechanics and KAM theory (from Kolmogorov, Arnold and Moser theorem) allow us to develop, using the notions of Biological Closure and Structural Coupling, a central core of BOP termed Dynamical Closure Mechanism. Under the proposed framework, a wide variety of bio- logical phenomena can be understood, shedding new light on biological explanations. However, an understanding of biological organization may require the re-evaluation of dogmas on how we think on biology as it seems inescapable that what is needed is an integration of analysis and notions derived from mathematics, physics, and biology to generate a new landscape of ideas.

In the past few decades, probabilistic interpretations of brain functions have become widespread in cognitive science and neuroscience. In particular, the free energy principle and active inference are increasingly popular theories of cognitive functions that claim to offer a unified understanding of life and cognition within a general mathematical framework derived from information and control theory, and statistical mechanics. However, we argue that if the active inference proposal is to be taken as a general process theory for biological systems, it is necessary to understand how it relates to existing control theoretical approaches routinely used to study and explain biological systems. For example, recently, PID control has been shown to be implemented in simple molecular systems and is becoming a popular mechanistic explanation of behaviours such as chemotaxis in bacteria and amoebae, and robust adaptation in biochemical networks. In this work, we will show how PID controllers can fit a more general theory of life and cognition under the principle of (variational) free energy minimisation when using approximate linear generative models of the world. This more general interpretation provides also a new perspective on traditional problems of PID controllers such as parameter tuning as well as the need to balance performances and robustness conditions of a controller. Specifically, we then show how these problems can be understood in terms of the optimisation of the precisions (inverse variances) modulating different prediction errors in the free energy functional.

The average age of in-service bridges has increased in recent years in the United States. To address this issue, structural health monitoring and damage identification approaches can be employed to prioritize maintenance/replacement of aging bridges. Among the damage identification and operational health monitoring approaches, finite element (FE) model updating methods can offer a solution to evaluate the mechanics-based characteristics of bridges. However, in a real-world setting, unidentifiability and mutual dependency between model parameters, modeling errors, especially due to boundary conditions, as well as ill-conditioning of updating algorithms can pose challenges to the application of FE model updating methods. To address these challenges, this study presents a two-step FE model updating approach. In the first step, modal-based model updating is used to estimate linear model parameters mainly related to the stiffness of boundary conditions and material properties. In the second step, in order to refine parameter estimation accounting for nonlinear response behavior of the bridge, a time-domain model updating is carried out. In this step, boundary conditions are fixed at their final estimates using modal-based model updating. To prevent the convergence of updating algorithm to local solutions, the initial estimates for nonlinear material properties are selected based on their corresponding final estimates in the modal-based model updating. To validate the applicability of the two-step FE model updating approach, a series of forced-vibration experiments are designed and carried out on a pair of decommissioned and deteriorated prestressed bridge I-girders. After carrying out the two-step FE model updating, the final estimates of concrete compressive strength are shown to provide reasonable assessment of the damage extent in the girders.

We present a finite element model updating technique for soil-structure system identification of the Millikan Library building using the seismic data recorded during the 2002 Yorba Linda earthquake. A detailed finite element (FE) model of the Millikan Library building is developed in OpenSees and updated using a sequential Bayesian estimation approach for joint parameter and input identification. A two-step system identification approach is devised. First, the fixed-base structural model is updated to estimate the structural model parameters (including effective elastic modulus of structural components, distributed floor mass, and Rayleigh damping parameters) and some uncertain components of the foundation-level motion. Then, the identified structural model is used for soil-structure model updating wherein the Rayleigh damping parameters, the stiffness and viscosity of the soil subsystem (modeled using a substructure approach), and the foundation input motions (FIMs) are estimated. The identified model parameters are compared with state-of-practice recommendations. While a specific application is made for the Millikan Library, the present work offers a framework for integrating large-scale FE models with measurement data for model inversion. By utilizing this framework for different civil structures and earthquake records, key structural model parameters can be estimated from the real-world recorded data, which can subsequently be used for assessing and improving, as necessary, state-of-the-art seismic analysis and structural modeling techniques. This paper presents an effort towards using real-world measurements for large-scale FE model updating in the soil and structure, uniform soil time domain for joint parameter and input estimation, and thus paves the way for future applications in system identification, health monitoring and diagnosis of civil structures.

Previous studies have shown, in the United States (U.S.), that non-White communities are exposed to significantly higher temperatures in urban environments than complementary White populations. Studies highlighting this disparity have usually been cross-sectional and are therefore “snapshots” in time. Using surface urban heat island (SUHI) intensity data, U.S. Census 2020 population counts, and a measure of residential segregation, this study performs a comparative analysis between census tracts identified as prevalent for White, Black, Hispanic and Asian populations and their thermal exposure from 2003 – 2018. The analysis concentrates on the top 200 most populous U.S. cities. SUHI intensity is shown to be increasing through time for all examined tracts. However, the increase is only statistically significant for White and Black prevalent zones. There is a 1.25K to ~2.00K higher degree of thermal exposure on average for non-White relative to White prevalent areas. When examined on an inter-city basis, White and Black prevalent tracts had the largest disparity, as measured by SUHI intensity, in New Orleans, LA, USA by &lt; 6.00K. Hispanic (&gt;7.00K) and Asian (&lt;6.75K) prevalent tracts were greatest in intensity in San Jose, CA, USA. To further explore temporal patterns, two models were developed using a Bayesian hierarchical spatial temporal framework. One models the effect of varying the percentages of each population group relative to SUHI intensity within all examined tracts. Increases in percentages of Black, Hispanic, and Asian populations contributed to statistically significant increases in SUHI intensity. White increases in population percentage lowered SUHI temperature intensity. Throughout all modeled tracts, there is a statistically significant 0.01K per year average increase in SUHI intensity. A second model tests the effect of residential segregation on thermal inequity across all examined cities. Residential segregation, indeed, has a statistically significant positive association with SUHI intensity from this portion of the analysis. Similarly, there is a statistically significant 0.01K increase in average SUHI intensity per year for all cities. Results from this study can be used to guide and prioritize intervention strategies and furthers urgency related to social, climatic, and environmental justice concerns.

Lysine is the first limiting essential amino acid in rice because it is present in the lowest quantity compared to all the other amino acids. Amino acids are the building block of proteins and play an essential role in maintaining the human body’s healthy functioning. Rice is a staple food for large proportion of the global population, thus increasing the lysine content in rice will improve its nutritional value. In this paper, we studied the lysine biosynthesis pathway in rice (Oryza Sativa) to identify the regulators of the lysine reporter gene LYSA (LOC_Os02g24354). Genetically intervening at the regulators has the potential to increase the overall lysine content in rice. We modeled the lysine biosynthesis pathway in rice seedlings under normal and saline (NaCl) stress conditions using Bayesian networks. We estimated the model parameters using experimental data and identified the gene DAPF(LOC_Os12g37960) as a positive regulator of the lysine reporter gene LYSA under both normal and saline stress conditions. Based on this analysis, we conclude that the gene DAPF is a potent candidate for genetic intervention. Upregulating DAPF using methods such as CRISPR-Cas9 has the potential to upregulate the lysine reporter gene LYSA and increase the overall lysine content in rice.

Bayesian model calibration techniques are commonly employed in the characterization of nonlinear dynamic systems, as they provide a conceptual and effective framework to deal with model uncertainties, experimental errors and procedure assumptions. This understanding has resulted in the need to introduce a model discrepancy term to account for the differences between model-based predictions and real observations. Indeed, the goal of this work is to enhance model-driven Structural Health Monitoring procedures by incorporating the posterior uncertainty linked to updated model discrepancy, and thus make relevant considerations for its use in the Structural Health Monitoring. Specifically, the Bayesian inference has been applied to the calibration of nonlinear hysteretic systems to both provide: (i) most probable values (MPV) of the parameters following the calibration, and; (ii) estimates of the model discrepancy posterior distribution. The effect of the model discrepancy in the calibration is first illustrated recurring to a single degree of freedom Bouc-Wen type oscillator, and then applied for calibrating a reference nonlinear Bouc-Wen model, deriving from real data acquired on a monitored masonry building.

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) and Zika virus (ZIKV) have recently emerged as global infections with consequential disability adjusted life years (DALYs) and economic burden. This study aimed to explore the spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the occurrence of CHIKV and ZIKV outbreaks throughout Barranquilla, Colombia during 2014 and 2016 and explored the potential for clustering. Incidence data were fitted using multiple Bayesian Poisson models based on a suite of explanatory variables as potential risk factors and multiple options for random effects. A best fit model was used to analyse the case incidence risk for both epidemics to identify any risk factors during their epidemics. Neighbourhoods in the northern region of Barranquilla were hotspots for the outbreaks of both CHIKV and ZIKV. Additional hotspots occurred in the south-western and central regions of the CHIKV and ZIKV outbreaks, respectively. Multivariate conditional autoregressive models strongly identified higher socioeconomic strata (SES) and residing in detached houses as risk factors for ZIKV case incidences. These novel findings challenge the belief that these infections are driven by social vulnerability and merits further study both in Barranquilla and throughout the tropical and subtropical regions of the world.

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) and Zika virus (ZIKV) have recently emerged as global infections with consequential disability adjusted life years (DALYs) and economic burden. This study aimed to explore the spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the occurrence of CHIKV and ZIKV outbreaks throughout Barranquilla, Colombia during 2014 and 2016 and explored the potential for clustering. Incidence data were fitted using multiple Bayesian Poisson models based on a suite of explanatory variables as potential risk factors and multiple options for random effects. A best fit model was used to analyse the case incidence risk for both epidemics to identify any risk factors during their epidemics. Neighbourhoods in the northern region of Barranquilla were hotspots for the outbreaks of both CHIKV and ZIKV. Additional hotspots occurred in the south-western and central regions of the CHIKV and ZIKV outbreaks, respectively. Multivariate conditional autoregressive models strongly identified higher socioeconomic strata (SES) and residing in detached houses as risk factors for ZIKV case incidences. These novel findings challenge the belief that these infections are driven by social vulnerability and merits further study both in Barranquilla and throughout the tropical and subtropical regions of the world.

The present reality about the Nigerian economy calls for investment and development in the non-oil sector. This becomes necessary as a result of fall in the oil price in the global market. This paper examined the Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) modeling and forecasting of the dynamic interrelationship between Economic growth and revenue from the oil and non-oil sectors in Nigeria. To achieve this, annual data on Gross Domestic Product (GDP), revenue from oil and non-oil sectors were collected from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) bulletin, the sample from 1981 to 2008 was used for analysis, while sample from 2009 to 2014 was used for model validation. Six (6) versions of Sims-Zha BVAR models were compared for out-of-sample forecast, the result revealed the superiority of the BVAR6 model over the other BVAR models. Lastly, evidence from the decomposition forecast errors revealed that revenue of oil sector contributed 7.69% to GDP while revenue from non-oil sector contributed 0.12% to GDP in Nigeria. This paper therefore recommended that the present government should encourage investment that is geared toward development in the non-oil sector, of which it has the capacity to improve the Economic growth of the Nigerian economy.

Historical forest management practices in the southwestern US have left forests prone to high intensity, stand-replacement fires. Effective management to reduce the cost and impact of forest-fire management and allow fires to burn freely without negative impact depends on detailed knowledge of stand composition, in particular, above-ground biomass (AGB). Lidar-based modeling techniques provide opportunities to reduce costs and increase ability of managers to monitor AGB and other forest metrics. Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), we develop a regionally applicable lidar-based statistical model for Ponderosa pine and mixed conifer forest systems of the southwestern USA, using previously collected field data. The selected regional model includes a mid and low canopy height metric, a canopy cover, and height distribution term. It explains 72% of the variability in field estimates of AGB, and the RMSE of the two independent validation data sets are 23.25 and 32.82 Mg/ha. The regional model developed is structured in accordance with previously described models fit to local data, and performs equivalently to models designed for smaller scale application. Developing regional models for broad scale application provides a cost-effective, robust approach for managers to monitor and plan adaptively at the landscape scale.

This study explores the relationship between job satisfaction, employee loyalty and two types of flexible employment arrangements; teleworking and flexi-time. The analysis relies on data derived by the Workplace Employee Relations Survey (WERS) in 2004 and 2011. A propensity score matching and least squares regressions are applied. Furthermore, Bayesian Networks (BN) and Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) are employed in order to confirm the causality between employment types explored and the outcomes of interest. Finally, an instrumental variables (IV) approach based on the BN framework is proposed and applied in this study. The results support that there is a positive causal effect from these employment arrangements on job satisfaction and employee loyalty.

The inverse finite element method (iFEM) is a novel method for reconstructing the full-field displacement of structures by discrete measurement strain. In practical engineering applications, the accuracy of iFEM is reduced due to the positional offset of strain sensors during installation, and errors in structural installation. Therefore, coarse and fine two-stage calibration (CFTSC) method is proposed to enhance the accuracy of the reconstruction of structures. Firstly, the coarse calibration is based on a single-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm to optimize the displacement-strain transformation matrix related to the sensor position. Secondly, as selecting different training data can affect the training effect of self-constructed fuzzy networks, this paper proposes to screen the appropriate training data based on residual analysis. Finally, the experiments of the wing integrated antenna structure verify the efficient of the method on the reconstruction accuracy of the structural body displacement field.

Genomic selection (GS) can accelerate variety improvement when training set (TS) size, and its relationship with the breeding set (BS) are optimized for prediction accuracies (PA) of genomic prediction (GP) models. Sixteen GP algorithms were run on phenotypic best linear unbiased predictors (BLUPs) and estimators (BLUEs) of resistance to both fall armyworm (FAW) and maize weevil (MW) in a tropical maize panel. For MW resistance, 37% of the panel was the TS, and BS was the remainder whilst for FAW, random-based training sets (RBTS) and pedigree-based training sets (PBTS) were designed. PAs achieved with BLUPs varied from 0.66 to 0.82 for MW resistance traits, and, for FAW resistance, 0.694 to 0.714 for RBTS of 37%, and 0.843 to 0.844 for RBTS of 85%, and, these were at least two-fold those from BLUEs. For PBTS, FAW resistance PAs were generally higher than those for RBTS, except for one dataset. GP models generally showed similar PAs across individual traits whilst the TS designation was determinant since a positive correlation (R=0.92***) between TS size and PAs was observed for RBTS and, for the PBTS, it was negative (R=0.44**). This study pioneers the use of GS for maize resistance to insect pests in sub-Saharan Africa.

We proposed a so-called Beta Kumaraswamy Burr Type X distribution which gives the extension of the Kumaraswamy-G class of family distribution. Some properties of this proposed model were provided, like: the expansion of densi- ties and quantile function. We considered the Bayes and maximum likelihood methods to estimate the parameters and also simulate the model parameters to validate the methods based on dierent set of true values. Some real data sets were employed to show the usefulness and exibility of the model which serves as generalization to many sub-models in the elds of engineering, medical, survival and reliability analysis.

We proposed a so-called Beta Kumaraswamy Burr Type X distribution which gives the extension of the Kumaraswamy-G class of family distribution. Some properties of this proposed model were provided, like: the expansion of densities and quantile function. We considered the Bayes and maximum likelihood methods to estimate the parameters and also simulate the model parameters to validate the methods based on different set of true values. Some real data sets were employed to show the usefulness and flexibility of the model which serves as generalization to many sub-models in the field of engineering, medical, survival and reliability analysis.

This paper aims to contribute to refining the e-values for testing precise hypotheses, especially when dealing with nuisance parameters, leveraging the effectiveness of asymptotic expansions of the posterior. The proposed approach offers the advantage of bypassing the need for elicitation of priors and reference functions for the nuisance parameters and the multidimensional integration step. For this purpose, starting from a Laplace approximation, a posterior distribution for the parameter of interest only is considered and then a suitable objective matching prior is introduced, ensuring that the posterior mode aligns with an equivariant frequentist estimator. Consequently, both Highest Probability Density credible sets and the e-value remain invariant. Some targeted and challenging examples are discussed.

The ISO 2859 and ISO 3951 series provide acceptance sampling procedures for lot inspection, allowing both sample size and acceptance rule to be determined, starting from a specific value either for the consumer or producer risk. However, insufficient resources often make it difficult to implement “ISO sampling plans.” In cases where the sample size is determined by external constraints, the focus shifts from determining sample size to determining consumer and producer risks. Moreover, if the sample size is very low (e.g. one single item), prior information should be included in the statistical analysis. For this reason, it makes sense to work within a Bayesian theoretical framework, such as that described in JCGM 106. Accordingly, the approach from JCGM 106 is adopted and broadened so as to allow application to lot inspection. The discussion is based on a “real-life” example of lot inspection on the basis of a single item. Starting from simple assumptions, expressions for both the prior and posterior distributions are worked out, and it is shown how the concepts from JCGM 106 can be reinterpreted in the context of lot inspection. Conceptual differences regarding the definition of consumer and producer risks in JCGM 106 and in the ISO acceptance sampling standards are elucidated and a numerical example is provided.

We discuss what we believe could be an improvement in future discussions of the ever-changing brain. We do so by distinguishing different types of brain variability and outlining methods suitable to analyse them. We argue that, when studying brain and behaviour data, classical methods such as regression analysis and more advanced approaches both aim to decompose the total variance into sensible variance components. In parallel, we argue that a distinction needs to be made between innate and acquired brain variability. For varying high-dimensional brain data, we present methods useful to extract their low-dimensional representations. Finally, to trace potential causes and predict plausible consequences of brain variability, we discuss how to combine statistical principles and neurobiological insights to make associative, explanatory, predictive, and causal enquires; but cautions are needed to raise association- or prediction-based neurobiological findings to causal claims.

The eastern subterranean termite, Reticulitermes flavipes, currently inhabits previously glaciated regions of the northeastern U.S., as well as the unglaciated southern Appalachian Mountains and surrounding areas. We hypothesized that Pleistocene climatic fluctuations have influenced the distribution of R. flavipes, and thus the evolutionary history of the species. We estimated contemporary and historical geographic distributions of R. flavipes by constructing Species Distribution Models (SDM). We also inferred the evolutionary and demographic history of the species using mitochondrial (cytochrome oxidase I and II) and nuclear (endo-beta-1,4-glucanase) DNA sequence data. To do this, genetic populations were delineated using Bayesian spatial genetic clustering, competing hypotheses about population divergence were assessed using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), and changes in population size were estimated using Bayesian skyline plots. SDMs identified areas in the north with suitable habitat during the transition from the Last Interglacial to the Last Glacial Maximum, as well as an expanding distribution from the mid-Holocene to the present. Genetic analyses identified three geographically cohesive populations, corresponding with northern, central, and southern portions of the study region. Based on ABC analyses, divergence between the Northern and Southern populations was the oldest, estimated to have occurred 64.80 thousand years ago (kya), which corresponds with the timing of available habitat in the north. The Central and Northern populations diverged in the mid-Holocene, 8.63 kya, after which the Central population continued to expand. Accordingly, phylogeographic patterns of R. flavipes in the southern Appalachians appear to have been strongly influenced by glacial-interglacial climate change.

The performance in terms of minimal Bayes’ error probability for detection of a high-dimensional random tensor is a fundamental under-studied difficult problem. In this work, we consider two Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR)-based detection problems of interest. Under the alternative hypothesis, i.e., for a non-zero SNR, the observed signals are either a noisy rank-R tensor admitting a Q-order Canonical Polyadic Decomposition (CPD) with large factors of size Nq  R, i.e, for 1  q  Q, where R, Nq ! ¥ with R1/q/Nq converge towards a finite constant or a noisy tensor admitting TucKer Decomposition (TKD) of multilinear (M1, . . . ,MQ)-rank with large factors of size Nq  Mq, i.e, for 1  q  Q, where Nq,Mq ! ¥ with Mq/Nq converge towards a finite constant. The detection of the random entries (coefficients) of the core tensor in the CPD/TKD is hard to study since the exact derivation of the error probability is mathematically intractable. To circumvent this technical difficulty, the Chernoff Upper Bound (CUB) for larger SNR and the Fisher information at low SNR are derived and studied, based on information geometry theory. The tightest CUB is reached for the value minimizing the error exponent, denoted by s?. In general, due to the asymmetry of the s-divergence, the Bhattacharyya Upper Bound (BUB) (that is, the Chernoff Information calculated at s? = 1/2) can not solve this problem effectively. As a consequence, we rely on a costly numerical optimization strategy to find s?. However, thanks to powerful random matrix theory tools, a simple analytical expression of s? is provided with respect to the Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR) in the two schemes considered. A main conclusion of this work is that the BUB is the tightest bound at low SNRs. This property is, however, no longer true for higher SNRs.

When extract building from high resolution remote sensing image with meter/sub-meter accuracy, the shade of trees and interference of roads are the main factors of reducing the extraction accuracy. Proposed a Bayesian Convolutional Neural Networks(BCNET) model base on standard fully convolutional networks(FCN) to solve these problems. First take building with no shade or artificial removal of shade as Sample-A, woodland as Sample-B, road as Sample-C. Set up 3 sample libraries. Learn these sample libraries respectively, get their own set of feature vector; Mixture Gauss model these feature vector set, evaluate the conditional probability density function of mixture of noise object and roofs; Improve the standard FCN from the 2 aspect:(1) Introduce atrous convolution. (2) Take conditional probability density function as the activation function of the last convolution. Carry out experiment using unmanned aerial vehicle(UVA) image, the results show that BCNET model can effectively eliminate the influence of trees and roads, the building extraction accuracy can reach 97%.

The evolution of manual grooming and its implications have received little attention in the quest to understand the origins of simian primates and their social and technical intelligence. All simians groom manually, whereas prosimians groom orally despite comparable manual dexterity between some members of the two groups. Simians also exhibit a variable propensity for the manipulation of inanimate, non-food objects, which has culminated in tool making and tool use in some species. However, lemuriform primates also seem capable of tool use with training. Furthermore, lemuriforms appear to understand the concept of a tool and use their own body parts as “tools”, despite not using inanimate objects. This suggests that prosimian primates are pre-adapted for proprioceptive object manipulation and tool use, but do not express these cognitive abilities by default. This essay explores the paleontological, anatomical, cognitive, ethological, and neurological roots of these abilities and attempts to explain this behavioural divide between simians and prosimians. Common misconceptions about early primate evolution and captive behaviours are addressed, and chronological inconsistencies with Machiavellian Intelligence are examined. A “licking to picking” hypothesis is also proposed to explain a potential link between manual grooming and object manipulation, and to reconcile the inconsistencies of Machiavellian Intelligence. Bayesian decision theory, the evolution of the parietal cortex and enhanced proprioception, and analogies with behavioural changes resulting from artificial selection may help provide new insights into the minds of both our primate kin and ourselves.

Identifying macroeconomic events that are responsible for dramatic changes of economy is of particular relevance to understand the overall economic dynamics. We introduce an open-source available efficient Python implementation of a Bayesian multi-trend change point analysis which solves significant memory and computing time limitations to extract crisis information from a correlation metric. Therefore, we focus on the recently investigated S&P500 mean market correlation in a period of roughly 20 years that includes the dot-com bubble, the global financial crisis and the Euro crisis. The analysis is performed two-fold: first, in retrospect on the whole dataset and second, in an on-line adaptive manner in pre-crisis segments. The on-line sensitivity horizon is roughly determined to be 80 up to 100 trading days after a crisis onset. A detailed comparison to global economic events supports the interpretation of the mean market correlation as an informative macroeconomic measure by a rather good agreement of change point distributions and major crisis events. Furthermore, the results hint to the importance of the U.S. housing bubble as trigger of the global financial crisis, provide new evidence for the general reasoning of locally (meta)stable economic states and could work as a comparative impact rating of specific economic events.

Rapid post-earthquake damage diagnosis of bridges can guide decision-making for emergency response management and recovery. This can be facilitated using digital technologies to remove the barriers of manual post-event inspections. Prior mechanics-based Finite Element (FE) models can be used for post-event response simulation using the measured ground motions at nearby stations; however, the damage assessment outcomes would suffer from uncertainties in structural and soil material properties, input excitations, etc. For instrumented bridges, these uncertainties can be reduced by integrating sensory data with prior models through a model updating approach. This study presents a sequential Bayesian model updating technique, through which a linear/nonlinear FE model, including soil-structure interaction effects, and the foundation input motions are jointly identified from measured acceleration responses. The efficacy of the presented model updating technique is first examined through a numerical verification study. Then, seismic data recorded from the San Rogue Canyon Bridge in California are used for a real-world case study. Comparison between the free-field and the foundation input motions reveals valuable information regarding the soil-structure interaction effects at the bridge site. Moreover, the reasonable agreement between the recorded and estimated bridge responses shows the potentials of the presented model updating technique for real-world applications. The updated FE model is considered as the digital twin of the bridge and can be used to analyze the bridge and monitor the structural response at element, section, and fiber levels to diagnose the location and severity of any potential damage mechanism.

In recent decades, the Variational AutoEncoder (VAE) model has shown good potential and capabilities in image generation and dimensionality reduction. The combination of VAE and various machine learning frameworks has also worked effectively in different daily life applications, however its possibility and effectiveness in modern game design has seldom been explored nor assessed. The use of its feature extractor for data clustering was minimally discussed in literature neither. This paper first attempts to explore different mathematical properties of the VAE model, in particular, the theoretical framework of the encoding and decoding processes, the possible achievable lower bound and loss functions of different applications; then applies the established VAE model into generating new game levels within two well-known game settings; as well as validating the effectiveness of its data clustering mechanism with the aid of the Modified National Institute of Standards and Technology (MNIST) database. Respective statistical metrics and assessments were also utilized for evaluating the performance of the proposed VAE model in aforementioned case studies. Based on the statistical and spatial results, several potential drawbacks and future enhancement of the established model were outlined, with the aim of maximizing the strengths and advantages of VAE for future game design tasks and relevant industrial missions.

The production of lithium-ion battery cells is characterized by a high degree of complexit due to numerous cause-effect relationships between process characteristics. Knowledge about the multi-stage production is spread among several experts, rendering tasks such as failure analysis challenging. In this paper, a method is presented, which includes expert knowledge acquisition in production ramp-up by combining Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) with a Bayesian Network. We show the effectiveness of this holistic method by building up a large scale, cross-process Bayesian Failure Network in lithium-ion battery production. Using this model, we are able to conduct root cause analyses as well as analyses of failure propagation. The former support operators in identifying root causes once a cell possesses a specific failure by calculating most-probable explanations matched to the individual battery cell data. The latter enable us to analyze propagation of failures and deviations in the production chain and thus provide support for placement of quality gates, leading to a significant reduction in scrap rate. Moreover, it gives an insight into which process steps are key drivers for which final product characteristics.

Determination of indoor location based on fine time measurement (FTM) of the round trip time (RTT) of a signal between an initiator (smartphone) and a responder (Wi-Fi access point) enables a number of applications. However, the accuracy currently attainable — standard deviations of 1–2 meter in distance measurement under favorable circumstances — limits the range of possible application. A first responder, for example, may not be able to unequivocally determine on which floor someone in need of help is in a multi-story building. The error in location depends on several factors, including the bandwidth of the RF signal, delay of the signal due to the high relative permittivity of construction materials, and the geometry-dependent “noise gain” of location determination. Errors in distance measurements have unusual properties that are exposed here for the first time. Improvements in accuracy depend on understanding all of these error sources. This paper introduces “frequency diversity,” a method for doubling the accuracy of indoor location determination using weighted averages of measurements with uncorrelated errors obtained in different channels. The properties of this method are verified experimentally with a range of responders. Finally, different ways of using the distance measurements to determine indoor location are discussed and the Bayesian grid update method shown to be more useful than others, given the non- Gaussian nature of the measurement errors.

The recent Google’s claim on breakthrough in quantum computing is a gong signal for further analysis of foundational roots of (possible) superiority of some quantum algorithms over the corresponding classical algorithms. This note is a step in this direction. We start with critical analysis of rather common reference to entanglement and quantum nonlocality as the basic sources of quantum superiority. We elevate the role of the Bohr’s principle of complementarity¹ (PCOM) by interpreting the Bell-experiments as statistical tests of this principle. (Our analysis also includes comparison of classical vs genuine quantum entanglements.) After a brief presentation of PCOM and endowing it with the information interpretation, we analyze its computational counterpart. The main implication of PCOM is that by using the quantum representation of probability, one need not compute the joint probability distribution (jpd) for observables involved in the process of computation. Jpd’s calculation is exponentially time consuming. Consequently, classical probabilistic algorithms involving calculation of jpd for n random variables can be over-performed by quantum algorithms (for big values of n). Quantum algorithms are based on quantum probability calculus. It is crucial that the latter modifies the classical formula of total probability (FTP). Probability inference based on the quantum version of FTP leads to constructive interference of probabilities increasing probabilities of some events. We also stress the role the basic feature of the genuine quantum superposition comparing with the classical wave superposition: generation of discrete events in measurements on superposition states. Finally, the problem of superiority of quantum computations is coupled with the quantum measurement problem and linearity of dynamics of the quantum state update.

This article describes the use of the PI ProcessBook software tool for visualization and indirect monitoring of occupancy of SHC rooms from the measured operational and technical quantities for monitoring of daily living activities for support of independent life of elderly persons. The proposed method for data processing (predicting the CO₂ course using neural networks from the measured temperature indoor T_i (°C), temperature outdoor T_o (°C) and the relative humidity indoor rHi (%)) was implemented, verified and compared in MATLAB SW tool and IBM SPSS SW tool with IoT platform connectivity. Within the proposed method, the Stationary Wavelet Transform de noising algorithm was used to remove the noise of the resulting predicted course. In order to verify the method, two long-term experiments were performed, (specifically from February 8 to February 15, 2015, from June 8 to June 15, 2015) and two short-term experiments (from February 8, 2015 and from June 8, 2015). For the best results of the trained ANN BRM within the prediction of CO₂, the correlation coefficient R for the proposed method was up to 90%. The verification of the proposed method confirmed the possibility to use the presence of persons of the monitored SHC premises for rooms ADL monitoring.