Submitted:
16 January 2025
Posted:
16 January 2025
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Abstract
Decarbonization of the electricity system coupled with electrification of transport, heat and industry represents a practical and cost-effective approach to deep decarbonization. A key question is: where to build new solar and wind farms? This study presents a cost-based approach to evaluate land parcels for solar and wind farm suitability using colour-coded heatmaps that visually depict favourable locations. An indicative cost of electricity is calculated for each pixel by focusing on key factors including resource availability, proximity to transmission infrastructure or load centres, and exclusion of sensitive areas. The proposed approach mitigates the subjectivity associated with traditional multi-criteria decision-making methods, in which both the selection of siting factors and the assignment of their associated weightings rely highly on the subjective judgments of experts. The methodology is applied to Australia, South Korea, and Indonesia, and the results are made publicly available to provide both qualitative and quantitative information that allows comparisons between regions and within a region. The study aims to empower policymakers, developers, communities and individual landholders to make informed decisions, and ultimately, facilitate strategic renewable energy deployment and contribute to global decarbonization.
Keywords:
1. Introduction
1.1. Background and Motivation
1.2. A Review of Siting Criteria for Solar and Wind Farms
1.3. Objectives and Novelties of this Study
- Develop public methodologies to reduce knowledge asymmetry between developers and landholders.
- Empower groups of landholders, perhaps with the support of local governments, to negotiate as a bloc. This can also assist the solar and wind farm developers by reducing the complexity and time required to gain legal access and community acceptance.
- Empower local governments to identify promising potential sites and attract solar and wind farm developers to their district to benefit from the associated economic activity.
- Assist state and regional governments and transmission companies to identify promising Renewable Energy Zones (REZ). This allows focus on a few regions for solar and wind farms, including the provision of new or upgraded transmission.
2. Methodology
2.1. GIS Analysis
- Transmission CAPEX: Capital expenditure of the transmission line connecting the solar or wind farm to the load centers or the high-voltage transmission network, in $/MW-km.
- Transmission OPEX: Operating expenses of the transmission line, in $/MW-km per annum.
- RE CAPEX: Capital expenditure of the solar or wind farm, in $/MW.
- RE OPEX: Operating expenses of the solar or wind farm, in $/MW per annum.
- : Length of the HVAC powerline connecting the hypothetical solar or wind farm to the load centers or the high-voltage transmission network, in kilometers.
- : Annual capacity factor of the solar or wind farm, expressed as a decimal (e.g., 0.2 for 20%).
- PVF (Present Value Factor): Present value factor calculated using the given discount rate and lifetime of the solar/wind farm and transmission line.
2.2. Cost Estimation
2.3. Land Requirements of Solar and Wind Farms
2.4. Visualization
3. Case Studies
3.1. Australia
3.2. Indonesia
3.3. South Korea
4. Discussion
4.1. Summary of Key Findings
4.2. Implications for Key Stakeholders
4.3. Limitations and future work
5. Conclusion
Acknowledgement: Support for this research from Squadron Energy and Innovation Connections is gratefully acknowledged.
| 1 | RE100 Map: https://re100.anu.edu.au/
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| 2 | Early-stage cost estimates using concept level scoping with no site-specific review. See AACE’s Cost Estimate Classification System (https://aacei-pittsburgh.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/cost-estimating-classification-system.pdf) for details. |
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| Project attributes | High-cost | Medium-cost | Low-cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overhead line | 1 × Mango SCST 306 MVA, 220kV | 2 × Lychee SCST 491 MVA, 220kV | 2 x Phosphorus SCST 796 MVA |
| Contract delivery model | EPC contract | EPC contract | EPC contract |
| Delivery timetable | Long | Optimum | Optimum |
| Greenfield or brownfield | Brownfield | Partially brownfield | Greenfield |
| Jurisdiction | NSW | NSW | NSW |
| Land Use | Developed area | Grazing | Desert |
| Location wind loading zones | Cyclone region | Non-cyclone region | Non-cyclone region |
| Proportion of environmentally sensitive areas | 100 percent | 50 percent | None |
| Terrain | Mountainous | Hilly/Undulating | Flat/Farmland |
| Location (regional/distance factors) | Remote | Regional | Urban |
| Project network element size | 50 km | 50 km | 50 km |
| Risks | BAU & Class 5b 2 | BAU & Class 5b | BAU & Class 5b |
| Stakeholder and community sensitive region | Highly sensitive | Sensitive | Commensurate with land use |
| Total cost(USD) | 104 million | 84 million | 58 million |
| Unit cost (CAPEXin USD) | $6,800/MW-km | $3,400/MW-km | $1,450/MW-km |
| Transmission OPEX(USD) | 1% of CAPEX p.a. | ||
| Transmission lifetime | 30 years | ||
| Cost components | High-cost | Medium-cost | Low-cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Solar CAPEX | $1,100/kW | $732/kW | $662/kW |
| Solar OPEX | $12/kW p.a. | ||
| Solar lifetime | 30 years | ||
| Wind CAPEX | $1,849/kW | $1,397/kW | $1,229/kW |
| Wind OPEX | $18/kW p.a. | ||
| Wind lifetime | 25 years | ||
| Discount rate | 5.99% | ||
| Overhead transmission | Underground transmission | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High-cost | Medium-cost | Low-cost | High-cost | Medium-cost | Low-cost | |
| Solar (1000m) | Solar overhead high-cost | Solar overhead medium-cost | Solar overhead low-cost | Solar underground high-cost | Solar underground medium-cost | Solar underground low-cost |
| Wind (250m) | Wind overhead high-cost | Wind overhead medium-cost | Wind overhead low-cost | Wind underground high-cost | Wind underground medium-cost | Wind underground low-cost |
| Cost Classes | Sumatera | Java | Kalimantan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Class A: <$30/MWh | - | - | - |
| Class B: $30-40/MWh | - | 1,145 GW | - |
| Class C: $40-50/MWh | 10,363 GW | 6,698 GW | 9,193 GW |
| Class D: $50-60/MWh | 13,708 GW | 471 GW | 7,253 GW |
| Class E: >$60/MWh | 3,488 GW | 1 GW | 1,041 GW |
| Total | 27,559GW | 8,316GW | 17,487GW |
| Population (millions) | 61 | 152 | 17 |
| Cost Classes | Solar PV | Wind (onshore) |
|---|---|---|
| Class A: <$30/MWh | 3,188 GW | 14 GW |
| Class B: $30-40/MWh | 4,853 GW | 75 GW |
| Class C: $40-50/MWh | 9 GW | 100 GW |
| Class D: $50-60/MWh | 0 GW | 101 GW |
| Class E: >$60/MWh | 0 GW | 264 GW |
| Total | 8,050 GW | 555 GW |
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