An Analysis of the urban development process in six major cities in Afghanistan from 1978-2018

: The rapid increase in population along with the economic activities led to rapid depletion of natural resources. Land use studies help us analyze the impacts of urban development on environment. Given the political upheavals in Afghanistan, this study aims to analyze how urban development evolved from 1978 to 2018 in six major cities- Kabul, Kandahar, Kunduz, Herat, Mazar-e Sharif and Jalalabad- in Afghanistan using Landsat Satellite Images. This study is based on quantitative approach. ArcGIS 9.4 software was used to synchronize the Landsat Satellite Images within the area of study. The results of the study show that the Annual rate of urban land expansion in Afghanistan was the lowest (average 1.07 square kilometers per year) during the military presence of Soviet Union in Afghanistan while it was the highest (3.35 square kilometers per year) from 2001 to 2018 due to the military presence of US-led NATO forces, relative security and rapid economic activities in Afghanistan. The authors believe that this study could be further explored if other inter-connected factors, e.g., the role of culture, literacy, immigration etc., are incorporated into the study of urban development processes in Afghanistan.


Introduction
Land cover changes and land use are essential for strategic planning for resource management and environmental changes [1]. Land cover changes are affected by various factors such as politics, nature, economy, population, etc. The increase in population along with economic activities are the two important factors that contributed to the conversion of agricultural lands, forests and pastures into urban lands [19]. That is why we feel that the study of land cover and land-use changes are important to be explored.
A number of scholars have analyzed land-use change/land cover trends using satellite imagery and remote sensing.
For instance, Fazal has studied the trend of urban land development in Saharanpur, India from 1988 to 1998. He found out that the land built around the city has increased significantly [6]. Using satellite imagery, Lopez et al. examined the development of urban lands in Puerto Rico. The findings of the research show that the urban area has increased by 16.1% in the course of 1977 to 1994 [16]. Moreover, using temporal-spatial trends, it is argued that urban land increased by 71% in the course of ten years (1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000) in Beijing and Tianjin cities of China [30]. Additionally, the National Academy of Sciences has examined 326 cases of urban development using remote sensing. They concluded that during 1970-2000 almost 58,000 square kilometers of agriculture and forest lands had been converted to urban lands mainly in India, China, and Africa [21]. Similarly, the analysis land use/land cover changes in Rominger, Nainital and Uttarakhand, India show that the area of land built in the city of Rominger, India has increased by 8.88% whereas the green space, agricultural and irrigated lands have declined by 9.41%, 0.69% and 2.76% respectively from  [10,34] and India [21,28].
Despite the importance of the application of satellite images in assessing the land use and land cover changes studies, a very few studies focused on land use and land cover changes in urban settings in Afghanistan. For example, it is contended that the trend of urban development and its influential factors in Kabul city using existing land use maps, population data, economic data and Landsat satellite imagery from 1964 through 2008. Due to the rapid increase in population along with economic activities, the urban area in Kabul city had expanded fourteen-fold in 2008 compared to the 1964's [1].
However, we feel that studying land cover and land use changes especially in Afghanistan is not comprehensive . The paper will first explore the study area followed by the method section. Next, the findings of the research will be discussed. Finally, the paper will wrap up the discussion by presenting the conclusion section.

Study area
Afghanistan is a mountainous and landlocked country located in Central Asia. It lies between 29 0 22' 53'' to 38 0 29' 27'' north latitude and 60 0 28' 41'' to 47 0 51' 47'' east longitude. The area of the country is estimated to be more than 650,000 square kilometers. Afghanistan shares border with Iran, Pakistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and China.
The country is divided into thirty-four provinces of which Kabul is the capital and Herat, Kandahar, Balkh, (Kunduz) and Jalalabad are the major cities within the country [22].
The country has experienced a number of political events in the last 40 years; ranging from the fall of the monarchy and the establishment of the republic to the Cold War and the battle between anti-government groups and the government. Of course, these political events adversely affected the urbanization and economic conditions of the country.

Political events in Afghanistan
The most important political events that have taken place in Afghanistan in the last 40 years are as follows:

Collecting data
To examine the urban development processes in six major cities in Afghanistan for the last forty years (1978-2018), images of Landsat 2, 5 and 8 satellites were freely downloaded from United States Geological Survey (USGS) website.

Satellite image processing
For pre-processing phase of the satellite imagery, radiance and QUAC atmospheric corrections were applied using ENVI 5.3 software program.
Preprints (www.preprints.org) | NOT PEER-REVIEWED | Posted: 9 August 2021 doi:10.20944/preprints202108.0187.v1 5 of 12 For the processing phase, the Un-supervised classification method was applied. The five components of land uses (constructed lands, barren lands, agricultural lands, mountains and irrigated areas) were classified using the Maximum Likelihood algorithm. Then, ArcGIS 9.4 software was applied to synchronize the data obtained from the classification within the area of study. Moreover, the Kappa coefficient was used to obtain the classification accuracy, which can be seen in Table (2).

Results
Given the relative security along with the economic development in Afghanistan [12,24], specifically in six major cit-    Additionally,

Discussion
Over the last four decades, Afghanistan experienced several historical and political upheavals. As the result of economic and political instability in Afghanistan, the Soviet Union-backed government has collapsed resulted in the rise of Mujahedeen government followed by Taliban Regime [27]. Taliban Regime, however, was overthrown by the US-led NATO forces after the 9/11 terrorist attack in New York City, the US [3]. The military presence of NATO forces in Afghanistan contributed to the betterment of socio-economic, political conditions of the country. That is why urban development has grown significantly in especially in the six major cities in Afghanistan.
Given the political and socio-economic conditions of Afghanistan, the paper will, now, further elaborate the trend of urban development in six major cities in Afghanistan.

First period (1978-1992)
After the coup of April 27 th , 1978, Afghanistan was ruled by the Soviet Union-backed Democratic People's Party of Afghanistan. However, the military presence of Soviet Union in Afghanistan was strongly opposed by regional and international military powers such as Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the USA [17]. It is argued that urban land is one of the main driving forces of environmental degradation around the world [9,28]. During fourteen years rule of Demo-Preprints (www.preprints.org) | NOT PEER-REVIEWED | Posted: 9 August 2021 doi:10.20944/preprints202108.0187.v1 9 of 12 cratic People's Party of Afghanistan, the shift from green areas to urban areas in Afghanistan was relatively steady.
The paper has found out that the average urban growth rate in six major cities in Afghanistan was 1.08 km 2 / year, among which Kabul city (the capital of Afghanistan) has experienced a high level of urbanism. For instance, the average growth of Kabul city is estimated at 3.63 km 2 / year while the average urban growth rate during the presence of Soviet Union in five other major cities in Afghanistan is estimated at less than 1 km 2 / year.

Second Period (1992-2001)
The conflict between the Soviet Union-backed government and Mujahedeen finally ended in 1992 resulted in the victory of Mujahedeen. As the result of ethnic divisions, Mujahedeen failed to establish a powerful government that could represent all ethnic groups [4]. Such differences provided the opportunity for an Islamist group called Taliban to take over the government and establish the "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan" in 1996 in Afghanistan. Similar to Mujahedeen's government, Taliban also failed to improve the livelihood of the Afghan people [4].
Our analysis shows that neither Mujahedeen nor Taliban had the opportunity to address unplanned urban development within the country. Despite having been a fragile state in Central Asia, the average urban growth rate from 1992-2001 was higher than the first period (1978)(1979)(1980)(1981)(1982)(1983)(1984)(1985)(1986)(1987)(1988)(1989)(1990)(1991)(1992). For example, during the Mujahedeen and Taliban regimes, the average urban expansion rate of Kabul city was 5.9 km 2 / year whereas it was 3.63 km 2 / year in the second period. The authors believe that the main reason behind urban development in the second period is the return of immigrants from the neighboring countries, e.g., Iran and Pakistan. In the course of 1992 to 1995, almost 1.3 million refugees voluntarily returned to Afghanistan [11]. This unplanned urbanization resulted in the creation of socio-economic challenges [2] within major cities in Afghanistan.

Third Period (2001-2018)
The collapse of Taliban regime in Afghanistan in 2001, along with the establishment of US-backed government in Afghanistan significantly led to expansion of urbanism in Afghanistan [15,20] Also, the military presence of US-led NATO forces along with the rapid economic growth in Afghanistan triggered Afghan rural communities to move to urban areas [29]. Of course, climate change-induced drought [13][14]20] along with insecurity also forced farmers to migrate to nearby cities [8,25]. It is argued that more than one million Afghan people are in need of food and water in Herat city [32]. It signifies how climate changes [13] affected the livelihood of rural Afghans who were forced to settle in urban area in Afghanistan [18].

Conclusion
Afghanistan has been affected by various political and historical events. These changes have also impacted the urban development processes in Afghanistan. The paper has assessed the evolution of urbanism in three different time period from 1979 to 2018 in six major cities in Afghanistan. During the first period (1978)(1979)(1980)(1981)(1982)(1983)(1984)(1985)(1986)(1987)(1988)(1989)(1990)(1991)(1992), the shift from green areas to urban areas was relatively low and steady. This is because Soviet Union-backed government was engaged in internal war with Mujahedeen who were logistically and financially supported by US and its allies. Afghanistan experienced a seemingly rapid urban expansion during Mujahedeen and Taliban regimes (1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001). However, this rapid urban expansion was structurally unplanned.
The paper also documented that the six major cities-Kabul, Kandahar, Kunduz, Mazar-e Sharif, Jalalabad and Herathave witnessed the highest urban development from 2001-2018. This is due to the massive return of the Afghan refugees from neighboring countries along with the rapid economic development and relative security conditions in Afghanistan. It is argued that the rapid unplanned urban development has significantly led to socio-economic challenges within major cities in Afghanistan. Finally, the authors believe that this research will help policy makers revisit the trends of urban development within the major cities in Afghanistan.

Conflicts of Interest:
The authors declare no potential conflicts of interest for publishing the paper.
Authors' contribution: The authors equally contributed to the writing of the manuscript.