Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

The Movement Of Funds on the Residents' Accounts in Russia

Version 1 : Received: 9 April 2021 / Approved: 12 April 2021 / Online: 12 April 2021 (12:15:49 CEST)

How to cite: Borodachev, S.M. The Movement Of Funds on the Residents' Accounts in Russia. Preprints 2021, 2021040284 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202104.0284.v1). Borodachev, S.M. The Movement Of Funds on the Residents' Accounts in Russia. Preprints 2021, 2021040284 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202104.0284.v1).

Abstract

The work proposes a model of funds formation in current and fixed-term (ruble and currency) accounts and transfers of funds between them. The sources of money are loans issued by commercial banks, placement of government domestic debt, the positive balance of foreign trade. The financial parameters and characteristics of the system are estimated using the Kalman filter. The adequacy of the model is confirmed by simulation modeling. It was found that the rate of creation of rubles in current accounts increased from ≈ 8% per annum in 2015-16 ≈ to 12% in 2017-18 and to 29% in 2019-20. The leakage of foreign currency from accounts (in addition to the official outflow of capital) was ≈ 12, 50, 35 billion dollars per annum during the same periods.

Subject Areas

government debt, escape of capital, money creation, Kalman filter, simulation

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