Impact of Covid-19 on tourism-based livelihood of people in Small Island Developing Nation: Case study of A & N Islands, India

In the past few decades, the tourism sector has emerged as a significant economic activity in island nations, particularly in tropical regions. However, most of the tropical islands face similar constraints. National and international tourists visit the SIDS including A & N Islands and contribute to the GDP to significant share. The Covid-19 outbreaks in SIDs including A & N islands shows that number of people infected were less as compared to metros or big cities. However, tourism activities completely stopped due to lockdown resulting in decreasing tourist’s arrival, declined GDP and per capita income of SIDs to greater extent. The information gathered from various sources, mass media and net analysed and interpreted in this chapter. Due to Covid-19 tourist’s arrival declined which has serious consequences on the livelihood of islander. Our analysis revealed A&N Islands deficit in energy available at from different sources by 18.26%. However, they are surplus in protein. The burden of high expenditure coupled with poor infrastructure make them more vulnerable in the circumstance of pandemic outbreaks. This outbreak has created the question of survival due to loss of jobs, halted economic activates, psychological, health unrest and livelihood threats among the depending people of these Island nations. Therefore, government interventions and subsidised package is very much essential to revive the tourism industry. The information given in this paper will be useful for future research and policy directions.

flights [14]. This might affect livelihoods of millions across the world, including vulnerable communities who rely on tourism as a vehicle to their livelihood [15]. An estimated 113 million people around the globe were already persistently food insecure due to pre-existing shocks before the Covid-19 crisis (World Bank, 2020). Shortages in labour (through travel restrictions, morbidity, rules for social distancing) affect traders, producers, processors, and logistics in the food supply chain-mainly for food products where workers must be nearby [16,17]. Supply Chain Management: A majority of the developing nations faced supply disruption during the pandemic. Hence, appropriate interventions like strengthening the storage capacity for enhancing the buffer stock, processing [18], and distribution will help to counter the adverse situation. Decentralizing Food System: Promotion of a decentralized food system to make the emerging economies self-reliant and protecting the local food system. This also will help to facilitate in achieving a healthier food system [19] targeting the SDG2.
The impact of Covid-19 on travel, tourism, aviation and hospitality is to be serious.
However, the impact has not been even across all industries. For instance, information communications technology (ICT) and its related industries have not felt the pinch as much as other industries [20]. Due to its crosscutting economic nature and deep social footprint, tourism is uniquely positioned to help societies and communities affected return to growth and stability.
UNWTO calls for financial and political support for recovery measures targeting the tourism sector in the most affected countries. Doninc Lapinte, Benjamin, Dillette and Alderman [*] have indicated that halt and social distancing measures are made locals mobility impaired.
Researchers pointed out the traveller activity shows some possibility of institutional innovation toward socializing tourism but the challenge will be in embedding the new normal for long term. This rebuilding has the potential regenerate short circuit economics, reinvigorate environmental hope and promote institutional innovation [21]. However, these small islands are having limited local population but these people also have to be protected and kept healthy.
The impact of coronavirus on economy of small island nations also to be more serious due to fragile ecosystem and poor infrastructure base for some the islands. Since their livelihood depends on tourism sector and due to Covid-19, this sector is hard hit. The SIDS people are waiting for amicable solutions in pandemic era. Therefore, concern government should take policy decisions to revive their livelihood by subsidizing and relaxing economic benefits [2].
The Covid-19 pandemic and the measures put in place to contain its diffusion are taking a heavy toll on the tourism sector. Therefore, expected impact need to be worked out so that these islands may take the benefit of policy intervention and become capable in absorbing the shocks of pandemic. About India: India is fastest growing developing country with 3 trillion US dollar. India has fourth largest rail network, second largest internet user base, fourth largest in automobile industry, largest exporter of information technology and software services, second largest road network, significant role of pharma industry, infra industry, textile industry, restaurant industry also across the world. GDP contribution by the agriculture industry, manufacturing industry and service escort is 17 percent, 26 percent, 57 percent respectively. The Covid-19 has disrupted economic activities and the supply chains significantly. This is likely to have an impact on demand for agricultural products, dislocation of labour force and disruption of supply chains. The tourism sector attract the revenue from foreign (12.8%) and domestic (87.2%). This sector also employee huge number of people who drive their livelihood from this sector. The Indian tourism sector will also have the adverse effect of COVID-19. The The A&N islands house a total population of 3.8 lakh [24] with 82 percent literacy and home five indigenous tribe. The Gross State Domestic Products (GSDP) grew more than 5 percent during the last decade (2008 to 2019) though a notable slump was experienced during 2005-06 due to the earthquake followed by tsunami [25].
Agriculture sector provides considerable livelihood support to the local population in A&N islands. Coconut occupies more than 50 percent of total cultivable area and is the main source of livelihood for the farming community [22,23]. Total milk production in the islands is about 25.28 thousand tonnes [24], which is however constrained by poor veterinary services [25].
Total potential of marine fisheries is about 0.14 million tonnes and due to variety of constraints only 20 percent of the potential is being exploited [23]. Available estimates indicate that given the existing climate, land and water resources as well as technology, the islands can only meet the protein-calorie requirements of about 1.6 lakhs population and puts the maximum carrying capacity with advanced level of technologies at 2.5 lakhs population. Another estimate considering the potential of the ocean resources, places the carrying capacity at 8.5 lakh [30]. We argue that all the tourism activities will halt and wait for the signals from the respective government. With this background, the specific objectives of this paper are to review the information related to impact of Covid-19 on SIDs nations including A & N Islands of India. To analyse the opinion of the researchers across the disciplines at global level about possible impact of Covid-19 on tourism industry. To understand the possible loss of revenue to the GDP of Island Nations? To analyse the declined tourists arrival in different islands particularly for A& N Islands. We assume that these information will provide the idea and policy direction to address the different dimension of losses due Covid-19 and will provoke the researcher for further investigations.

MATERIALS AND METHODS
The various mass media, websites, newspapers and research articles were reviewed and their information used in this paper. Various aspects viz. share of tourism sector to the GDP, per capita income, number of infected people, recovery percent of infected people, impact on GDP contribution of tourism section in GDP, number of tourists arrived from 1995-2020, composition of tourists, etc., were covered. The vital indicators of Tropical Island Nations were compared with A&N Island. The analysis has generated the background information to identify and explore specific issues related to impact of Covid-19, tourism development and the emerging scenario of tourism in A & N islands. Employing the process of familiarisation and discovery, an in-depth understanding was developed on present and emerging dimensions of impact of Covid-19 on tourism. The end point of data on Covid-19 ending of August 2020. We are able to get the information on opinion of the people through telephonic conversations.
Analytical procedure: We have analyzed the data on number of Covid-19 cases, proportion to total population, test performed and recovery of Covid-19 patients for SIDs nations. We also have analyzed the data on SIDS fall in GDP, per capita income due to Covid-19, share of different small island developing nations economic activities for different islands. We have taken the methodology and data adopted by UNWTO. However, we attempted to provide initial information for thoughts provoking and policy arguments for small Islands development so that their shattered economy can be revived with better options. Qualitative data were entered into Stata-14 database and coded by thematic content. Our analysis focuses on both quantitative measures of difference and the descriptive inferences derived from the data. The opinions of different researchers across the SIDS nations were obtained though asking simple questions like, how do you perceive the impact of Covid-19 on tourism industry? What will be the possible way to revive this sector? We have analyzed the opinions of different research across the different countries and drawn the logical inferences as presented in subsequent sections.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
The result section contains the opinion of researchers across the countries, status of Covid-19 -19 infection spread in SIDS, Economic activates and impact of Covid-19 on GDP and per capita income. The details of findings and interpretation are given as below.

Expected impact of Covid-19 (Perceptions):
We have collected the information through mass media [31,52,53,54] (https://www.researchgate.net/), by asking questions like what is the possible impact of Covid-19 on tourism sector. These researchers have expressed their opinion independently. It was learnt that majority of researcher felt that Covid-19 is going to be badly affecting the tourism industry and the livelihood of the people depend on it. Though some of the researchers have said that it is too early to comment on the actual impact of Covid-19 but still for the time being this sector halted still and will take time to revive. We also feel the same and only option to revive this sector is the policy instrument, rebates and subsidies to tourism sector. It is not the question of revenue loss but the loss of employment, livelihood and idle infrastructure, these have incurred huge investment. This investment is not paying the dividends at the movement but cost and expenditure for maintenance and wearing tearing remain the same as before Covid-19. Therefore, this sector need special package and policy input to restart. The similar opinion of other researchers is given below. Many researcher like [32] says this pandemic opened the door of new opportunities. It has changed the thinking and investment behaviour of tour operators as well as the tourists. Some of the researchers have felt that tourism sector will suffer a big losses and will take many years to recover. Therefore, researcher still analysing and guessing about the impact of Covid-19. Majority of them are in opinion that tourism sector will face new challenges and constraints in future. Expectation on international tourist arrivals will be down. An expected fall of between 20-30% could translate into a decline in international tourism receipts of between US$300-450 billion, almost onethird of the US$ 1.5 trillion generated in 2019 [33,48,49,50,51]. There is a national recession in the countries where the tourism sector and related services constitute a significant part of the whole economy.
Estrada et al, [35] Taking into account past market trends, this would mean that between five and seven years' worth of growth will be lost to Covid-19 (UNWTO, 2020).

Mass media
When the outbreak will be over, it could take up to ten months for the industry to recover. World meters, 2020* Researcher Increased the infected cases are continue. Zurab Pololikashvili* Secretary General UNWTO The restart of tourism means return of hope and opportunity for many millions of people around the world.
Note: * Indicate the information collected from social media. Source: Author has synthesised the information collected through internet putting straight question like what is the impact of Covid-19on tourism sector. Health Organization also issues travel advisories to discourage travel to destinations with cases of pandemics. Airlines, tour operators, travel agents, attraction sites, car hire, restaurants and hotels have been adversely impacted. All businesses and service providers along the tourism value chain including the farmer who supplies vegetables to a restaurant and a taxi driver who shuttles tourists from the airport to hotels are all affected.

Status of Covid-19 infections in SIDS nations including A & N Islands
With above background we have collected the information provided on https://www.worldometerinfo/coronavirus/ on Covid-19 and analyzed for SIDS only and same is presented in table 2. The data on number of cases reported, total deaths, recovery rate and tests performed shown in this table as on 22/10/2020 for these islands. The SIDS are mostly having fragile agro ecological coastal system where in biodiversity is rich that posed current threats due to biotic interferences. The Covid-19 infected data shows that these islands are having less number of affected peoples as compared to metro cities. However, the expectation of infections may be very high due outsider's movement if tourism is opened. Since government has taken serious steps of lockdown, this might has resulted in less number of affected people in SIDSs. Further, less number of infected people does not mean these islands are safe. It is because, their facilities and health infrastructure is also not so good. Therefore, Covid-19 is really a serious pandemic and need to be taken extra care to dealt with it. Though, these islands having limited local population but these people also have to be protected and kept healthy.  (Table 3). However, these islands are having less number of causalities but still it is very high in relative term since their population is very small. Another reason could be poor infrastructure for testing facilities.
Therefore, concern government should take policy decisions to revive their livelihood by subsidizing and relaxing economic benefits [2]. the Bahamas. Given these statistics, it is evident that without international assistance, the economic consequences of the pandemic will be devastating for many of the SIDS particularly those depend on tourism sector.

Impact of Covid-19 on per capita income:
The per capita income of island nations compared was found to be much higher than A & N Islands to the tune of 300 to 7800 percent. It is interesting to note that literacy rate was found to be very high in all the tropical islands, the lowest being 82 % (Table 3). The area under agriculture was found to be in the range of 12% to 35 % and it was higher as compared to A&N islands [42,55]. However, due to decline in number of tourist's arrival the per capita income as well as GDP will decline for these island nations very sharply due to Covid-19. The recovery will take time may be 2-5 years at same level of tourism industry during 2018-19.Therefore, SIDS island nations are more vulnerable and prone to be at high risk due to Covid-19.
It is due to geographical locations, poor infrastructure, poor resource base, fragile agro ecosystem and high dependency on service sector. Hence, SIDS are going to be hard hit by this pandemic. The government interventions with special package may reduce the vulnerability of these nations. better tourist spots and may harvest the opportunities for improving livelihood of the islands [23]. The performance study of tourism sector in Hong Kong revealed the similar observations [31]. The tourist inflow was also observed to be extremely higher in the case of neighbouring nations. Some of smaller island nations (<1000 sq.km. area) were found to be better. Recently government of Indian also recognised the importance of tourism and has identified nine islands in the arrivals but during Covid-19 it is being completely stopped. This is matter of concern and need urgent attention of the policy maker. Hence, similar is the trend of SIDS nations.

Tourism development policy for
Therefore, tourism sector need to be revived with proper policy instrument. These emerging scenarios would have considerable bearing on future demand and supply patterns of agriculture products particularly food items. The decreased tourist's arrival will have impact on local food security due to Covid-19 and it could be inferred that before Covid-19 most of the SIDSs were depending upon food imports. There was big gap in demand and supply of local production. Now many items will be surplus or there will be deficiency at local level due to lockdown.
However, the livelihood of the people of these islands will suffer measurably. Therefore, respective government need to have some relaxation/ subsidy policy for these islands for survival of islands. The SIDS may also experiencing similar constraints during pandemic.
Therefore, international level support to the tourism industry is very much required.
In A & N Islands of India, tourist's information is presented in fig.2   The tribal of these islands keep on engaged themselves in different social events round the year along with agriculture and other livelihood activities. Due to fear of Covid-19 they are forced to cancel their cultural festival events. Table 4 indicate the cancelled month wise events.
Through telephonic conversation, it was informed that there is no certainty when they will be able to organize these functions again. Therefore, Covid-19 has affected the livelihood of these people and had greater impact on livelihood management. The social events organization is the part of life for the tribal as well as for the islanders, which keep them busy throughout the year.
By organizing these festivals and social gathering themselves healthy and active. Now many tribal youth are expressing psychological disorder. It was informed that we do not find any activity to pass time. Therefore, many people becoming unhealthy. If this trend is continued, many more people will unhealthy. Source: Authors observation though telephonic conversation The main reason for this is no option available to keep them engaged being small island ecosystem. Therefore, in hygienic manner they may be allowed to organize their local festivals.
More than 90 percent people have informed that all major annual events were cancelled.
However, some of the people could not give any opinion. it is possible to provide a rough estimate of each country's immediate financial needs to offset the damage of the pandemic.

DISCUSSION
The Covid-19 is really deadliest pandemic has stopped global economic activities for long time and expected to continue for more time. In such circumstances world production activities suffered a lot particularly those countries where economy is dependent on imports and export The SIDSs islands are more vulnerable in such situation due to their fragile agro ecosystem. These islands are mostly dependent on imports and exports. The trade activities has been suffered a lot due lockdown. The GDP of these islands is going to be very much suffering in terms of continuous decline and resulting in decline of per capita income. Hence, people purchasing power reduced due job/ employment loss. Sustainable development offers high potential for any community within economic, social, cultural, ecologic and physical constraints [33]. Sustainable development goal can only be achieved with the judicious use of available resources at SIDS islands. However, its effectiveness depends on an institutional and legal framework that coordinates the initiatives of all sectors, both public and private, to ensure the achievement of common goals through a unified approach. Since A & N Islands is the strategic location for the country, all precautions need to be taken to protect national and local interests. The air travel is becoming more convenient as many public and private airlines being operated in these islands. However, Covid-19 has stopped all the economic activities and resulting in suffering of people whose dependency is more on tourism sector.

Conclusions and Policy Implications:
The tourism industry has always proven to be resilient in times of pandemics and crisis. It is expected that post Covid-19 will not be any different though the road to recovery could be long. With the outbreak of coronavirus and the resultant impact on hotels, the industry is down but not out. Hotel managers must institute a crisis management plan based on the Covid-19 model outlined above to ensure that they keep their In these times of crisis, the world's poorest, who predominantly depend on agriculture, are likely turn out of food. Consequently, hunger, starvation, and malnutrition due to in-adequate and unhealthy feeding habits, put their health and well-being at risk [7], [35].
Therefore, tourism sector is going to face more challenges in future to arrive its same path as pre-pandemic. The government support and subsidies like intervention may revive this sector.
The findings of this paper will add the information/knowledge for the policy makers and researcher for future action.

Acknowledgement:
Authors are thankful to the various researchers who have responded on the Web based question asked. We also thank to various mass media, UNWTO, newspaper editorial writers whose information used in this paper.

Limitation:
The research paper is based on the view expressed by various researchers and data reported by various agencies. The interpretation varies from reporter to reporter. Therefore, there may be some bias. It is too early to predict the real impact of pandemic.