Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

From Firm Solar Power Forecasts to Firm Solar Power Generation: An Effective Path to Ultra-High Renewable Penetration - A New York Case Study

Version 1 : Received: 4 July 2020 / Approved: 5 July 2020 / Online: 5 July 2020 (16:27:08 CEST)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Perez, R.; Perez, M.; Schlemmer, J.; Dise, J.; Hoff, T.E.; Swierc, A.; Keelin, P.; Pierro, M.; Cornaro, C. From Firm Solar Power Forecasts to Firm Solar Power Generation an Effective Path to Ultra-High Renewable Penetration a New York Case Study. Energies 2020, 13, 4489. Perez, R.; Perez, M.; Schlemmer, J.; Dise, J.; Hoff, T.E.; Swierc, A.; Keelin, P.; Pierro, M.; Cornaro, C. From Firm Solar Power Forecasts to Firm Solar Power Generation an Effective Path to Ultra-High Renewable Penetration a New York Case Study. Energies 2020, 13, 4489.

Journal reference: Energies 2020, 13, 4489
DOI: 10.3390/en13174489

Abstract

We introduce firm solar forecasts as a strategy to operate optimally overbuilt solar power plants in conjunction with optimally sized storage systems so as to make up for any power prediction errors, hence entirely remove load balancing uncertainty emanating from grid-connected solar fleets. A central part of this strategy is plant overbuilding that we term implicit storage. We show that strategy, while economically justifiable on its own account, is an effective entry step to least-cost ultra-high solar penetration where firm power generation will be a prerequisite. We demonstrate that in absence of an implicit storage strategy, ultra-high solar penetration would be vastly more expensive. Using the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) as a case study, we determine current and future cost of firm forecasts for a comprehensive set of scenarios in each ISO electrical region, comparing centralized vs. decentralized production and assessing load flexibility’s impact. We simulate the growth of the strategy from firm forecast to firm power generation. We conclude that ultra-high solar penetration enabled by the present strategy, whereby solar would firmly supply the entire NYISO load, could be achieved locally at electricity production costs comparable to current NYISO wholesale market prices.

Subject Areas

Firm power generation; Energy storage; Irradiance forecasts; Implicit storage; Grid integration; ultra-high RE penetration

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