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\begin{document}
\history{Date of publication xxxx 00, 0000, date of current version xxxx 00, 0000.}
\doi{10.1109/ACCESS.2017.DOI}


\title{Optimistic Prediction Model For the COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic based on the Reported Data Analysis}

\author{\uppercase{Khalid S. Aloufi}\authorrefmark{1}}
\address[1]{College of Computer Science and Engineering, Taibah University, Madinah (e-mail: koufi@taibahu.edu.sa)}
\tfootnote{}

\markboth
{Author \headeretal: Preparation of Papers for IEEE TRANSACTIONS and JOURNALS}
{Author \headeretal: Preparation of Papers for IEEE TRANSACTIONS and JOURNALS}

\corresp{Corresponding author: Khalid S. Aloufi (e-mail: koufi@taibahu.edu.sa).}


\begin{abstract}
The world is facing new challenges every day. however, with the pandemic spread all over the world, a new challenge is different. The pandemic challenge is taking all the challenges to concentrate and  increase in one time. Although different sectors  are facing consequences more than others, the most important sectors ,health and economy are the most affected. When the pandemic start, it is not known when it will last, which is very important for different health and economic planning. Therefore, it is very important for decision makers and the public to know the prediction and expectations of the future of these challenges to successfully goes over it. In this work, the current situation is analysed. Then, an expectation model is developed based on the statistics of the pandemic using an a growth rate model based on the exponential and  logarithmic increase rate. Based on the available open data about  the pandemic spread, the model successfully can predict the future expectations. The model expect the time and the maximum number of cases of the pandemic.
The model uses the equilibrium point as the day the of cases decreases. The model can be used for planning and development of strategies to overcome the aforthmentioned challenges.
\end{abstract}

\begin{keywords}
IR , Data Analysis, Growth Rate, COVID-19, Coronavirus, Pandemic.
\end{keywords}

\titlepgskip=-15pt

\maketitle


% Sections
\section{Introduction}
\PARstart{I}{n} different time in history, humanity have faced great health challenges that affects the life in general.Different pandemic challenges spread across the world in history, such as the Smallpox, the Spanish flu,Tuberculosis or Plague \cite{wiki:Smallpox}\cite{wiki:Tuberculosis}\cite{wiki:Plague}
\cite{wiki:Spanishflu}
\cite{wiki:Coronavirus}
\cite{wiki:Pandemic}.
The effects of pandemic on health sector is the greatest challenge and also , consequently, affects economy and social life. Human has daily activity that are highly changing during the pandemic.
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\EOD

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