Preprint Article Version 1 Preserved in Portico This version is not peer-reviewed

Characterization of Historical Trends of Droughts and Pluvial Scenarios over Kenya, East Africa

Brian AYUGI
* ORCID logo ,
Guirong Tan
,
Niu Rouyun
,
Dong Zeyao
,
Moses Ojara
ORCID logo ,
Lucia Mumo
ORCID logo ,
Hassen Babaousmail
ORCID logo ,
Victor Ongoma
ORCID logo
Version 1 : Received: 24 December 2019 / Approved: 25 December 2019 / Online: 25 December 2019 (09:39:45 CET)
Version 2 : Received: 4 February 2020 / Approved: 4 February 2020 / Online: 4 February 2020 (15:56:58 CET)

A peer-reviewed article of this Preprint also exists.

Ayugi, B.; Tan, G.; Niu, R.; Dong, Z.; Ojara, M.; Mumo, L.; Babaousmail, H.; Ongoma, V. Evaluation of Meteorological Drought and Flood Scenarios over Kenya, East Africa. Atmosphere 2020, 11, 307. Ayugi, B.; Tan, G.; Niu, R.; Dong, Z.; Ojara, M.; Mumo, L.; Babaousmail, H.; Ongoma, V. Evaluation of Meteorological Drought and Flood Scenarios over Kenya, East Africa. Atmosphere 2020, 11, 307.

Abstract

This work examines drought and pluvial events based on Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) over Kenya from 1981 to 2016. Spatiotemporal analysis of dry and wet events is conducted for 3 and 12-month SPEI. The drought incidences were observed during the period 1984, 1987, 2000, 2006, 2009, 2015, and 2016 for SPEI-3 whilst the SPEI-12 demonstrated the manifestation of drought during the year 2000 and 2006. SPEI clearly shows the wettest period, 1997 and 1998 coinciding with the El Nino event in both time steps. SPEI -3 shows a reduction in moderate drought events while severe and extreme cases were on increase towards the end of the twentieth century. Conversely, SPEI-12 depicts an overall severe drought occurrence over the study location with observed intensity of -1.54 and cumulative frequency of 64 months during the study period. The trend of wet events is upwards in the western and central highlands while the rest of the regions show increase in dry events during the study period. Moreover, moderate dry/wet events predominate whilst extreme events occur least frequent across all grid cells. It is apparent that the study area experiences mild extreme dry events in both categories although moderately severe dry events dominate most parts of the study area. High intensity and frequency of drought is noted in SPEI-3 while least occurrences of extreme events are recorded in SPEI-12. Although drought event prevails across the study area, there is evidence of extreme flood conditions over the recent decades.

Keywords

Drought; SPEI; Pluvial; Linear trend; Mann-Kendall; Kenya

Subject

Environmental and Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Science and Meteorology

Copyright: This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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