Agricultural activities profoundly affect groundwater levels in Saudi Arabia. The Al Kharj and Wadi Sahba areas, central Saudi Arabia, produce groundwater mainly from the Jurassic Arab/Jubaila aquifer and the overlying Cretaceous Biyadh aquifer. A geographic information system analysis and linear regression analyses show that from 1978 to 2016, significant agricultural overexploitation of the area’s fossil groundwater was associated with groundwater level drops of ~104 m in Al Kharj and ~48 m in Wadi Sahba. The estimated total volume of groundwater withdrawal across both aquifers during this period of wheat and alfalfa irrigation was ~27 billion m3. Landsat image analysis shows that agricultural land use decreased by ~66% over the same period due to overexploitation. The 2016 phase-out of alfalfa farming was associated with increases in groundwater levels: ~26 m in the Arab/Jubaila aquifer and ~3 m in the Biyadh aquifer. This recovery was likely due to lateral flow from surrounding fossil water within the aquifer given the absence of significant surface recharge. Model-based evaluation of surface recharge of the aquifer reveals very low potential for surface infiltration, with almost no recharge into the deep aquifer. Assuming that recovery continues at the present rate, the average groundwater level for the Arab/Jubaila aquifer is expected to reach 98 m below ground level in 2025 and 74 m below ground level in 2030.