Version 1
: Received: 12 October 2023 / Approved: 12 October 2023 / Online: 12 October 2023 (11:24:24 CEST)
Version 2
: Received: 14 May 2024 / Approved: 14 May 2024 / Online: 15 May 2024 (10:25:09 CEST)
Version 3
: Received: 16 May 2024 / Approved: 16 May 2024 / Online: 17 May 2024 (08:02:19 CEST)
How to cite:
Prakhova, S. Evaluating Performance of the US Surveillance Systems for Monitoring Antimicrobial-Resistant Gonorrhea: An Agent-Based Modelling Study. Preprints2023, 2023100814. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202310.0814.v2
Prakhova, S. Evaluating Performance of the US Surveillance Systems for Monitoring Antimicrobial-Resistant Gonorrhea: An Agent-Based Modelling Study. Preprints 2023, 2023100814. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202310.0814.v2
Prakhova, S. Evaluating Performance of the US Surveillance Systems for Monitoring Antimicrobial-Resistant Gonorrhea: An Agent-Based Modelling Study. Preprints2023, 2023100814. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202310.0814.v2
APA Style
Prakhova, S. (2024). Evaluating Performance of the US Surveillance Systems for Monitoring Antimicrobial-Resistant Gonorrhea: An Agent-Based Modelling Study. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202310.0814.v2
Chicago/Turabian Style
Prakhova, S. 2024 "Evaluating Performance of the US Surveillance Systems for Monitoring Antimicrobial-Resistant Gonorrhea: An Agent-Based Modelling Study" Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202310.0814.v2
Abstract
In this study we evaluate performance of two American surveillance systems for monitoring the spread of antimicrobial-resistant (AMR) gonorrhea: the Gonococcal Isolate Surveillance Project (GISP) and the enhanced Gonococcal Isolate Surveillance Project (eGISP) which includes the non-urethral isolates in addition to the urethral ones utilized in the original surveillance system. A continuous-time agent-based model of gonorrhea transmission among the US men who have sex with men (MSM) population was developed and used for this purpose. Our results show that the accuracy of eGISP was nearly 10% higher than the accuracy of GISP (97.8% (95% uncertainty interval: 83.5%, 100%) vs. 87.9% (55%, 100%)). Most of time, GISP detects the moment when the resistance to the first-line antibiotic reaches the switch threshold recommended by the WHO later than when it was actually reached. This leads to the additional spread of AMR gonorrhea. We also found that including the extragenital isolates in the surveillance is more important for the accurate monitoring than increasing the number of isolates. Finally, our results demonstrate that rectum and pharynx can serve as a niche for fostering antimicrobial resistance. These findings provide a scientific basis which can be used to inform the decision made by the policymakers on how many GISP and eGISP sites to establish each year.
Keywords
Agent-based modelling; gonorrhea; antimicrobial resistance; surveillance systems
Subject
Computer Science and Mathematics, Mathematical and Computational Biology
Copyright:
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
