Preprint Article Version 1 NOT YET PEER-REVIEWED

A Hierarchal Risk Assessment Model using the Evidential Reasoning Rule

  1. College of Information System and Management, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha, 410073, P.R.China
  2. Alliance Manchester Business School, The University of Manchester, Manchester M15 6PB,UK
Version 1 : Received: 4 November 2016 / Approved: 9 November 2016 / Online: 9 November 2016 (10:29:29 CET)

How to cite: Ji, X.; Jiang, J.; Sun, J.; Chen, Y. A Hierarchal Risk Assessment Model using the Evidential Reasoning Rule. Preprints 2016, 2016110054 (doi: 10.20944/preprints201611.0054.v1). Ji, X.; Jiang, J.; Sun, J.; Chen, Y. A Hierarchal Risk Assessment Model using the Evidential Reasoning Rule. Preprints 2016, 2016110054 (doi: 10.20944/preprints201611.0054.v1).

Abstract

This paper aims to develop a hierarchical risk assessment model using the newly-developed evidential reasoning (ER) rule, which constitutes a generic conjunctive probabilistic reasoning process. In this paper, we first provide a brief introduction to the basics of the ER rule and emphasize the strengths for representing and aggregating uncertain information from multiple experts and sources. Further, we discuss the key steps of developing the hierarchical risk assessment framework systematically, including (1) formulation of risk assessment hierarchy, (2) representation of both qualitative and quantitative information, (3) elicitation of attribute weights and information reliabilities, (4) aggregation of assessment information using the ER rule and (5) quantification and ranking of risks using utility-based transformation. The proposed hierarchical risk assessment framework can potentially be implemented to various complex and uncertain systems. A case study on the fire/explosion risk assessment of marine vessels demonstrates the applicability of the proposed risk assessment model.

Subject Areas

Risk assessment; Evidential reasoning; Fire/explosion

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